B (3:45)

I am actually no longer in Beirut, but north of the Lebanese capital because the very wide scale evacuation order that came from the Israeli army on Thursday afternoon covered a huge part of the southern suburbs of Beirut. And you have to remember Beirut is a large urban sprawl. So when we speak of suburbs, they're not sort of distant, quaint areas. They are densely populated neighborhoods. We believe that about 800,000 residents were displaced by that evacuation order. That's 13% of the Lebanese population. And you can just imagine the heartbreak, the panic and the pressure on the rest of the country that this is causing.

A (4:31)

You talk about Beirut being sort of a sprawling area with these attacks. Do you feel the proximity of them? Even though it is sort of a sprawling area?

B (4:40)

We all feel it and we feel generally in Lebanon that we're entering a dangerous new phase that could see a further ground incursion by Israeli forces into southern Lebanon and potentially a scenario where people will not be able to go back to the southern suburbs, which is where, you know, Hezbollah has a lot of its offices, some of its infrastructure. There are concerns that this is a long term campaign that Israel is now waging against Lebanon, which will continue regardless of how the war against Iran will unfold. This renewed intensification of the conflict happened because Hezbollah decided that it should show solidarity with Iran and launch rockets at Israel to mourn the supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei. And there's a lot of anger in the Shia community and in Lebanon in general because of what they've done.

A (5:38)

I think it is worth emphasizing for folks that Hezbollah is not the same thing as Lebanon's government. What has been the response from Lebanon's government?

B (5:49)

The Lebanese government has come out and said that Hezbollah's military and security actions are now considered to be outside of the law. They've called on members of the Revolutionary Guards of Iran to leave the country. They said they've arrested people carrying weapons in southern Lebanon. But for a lot of the Lebanese, this feels like too little, too late. The Lebanese government had the opportunity over the last year to really demonstrate its serious intention in establishing and enforcing Lebanese state authority over the whole of the country, especially southern Lebanon. The fear amongst the Lebanese officials was that pushing too much, too far against Hezbollah could provoke a civil war. Instead, we're now in a war with Israel.

A (6:36)

Now that Lebanon's government has made moves of wanting to clamp down on Hezbollah, is there still a risk that a civil war could happen?

B (6:45)

I don't think so. I think that that is always a very convenient excuse to avoid taking serious measures and serious decisions. Right now, I think there could be isolated incidents. There's a lot of anger in the rest of Lebanon against Hezbollah, but it is a very, very heavy load. It's a lot of pressure for a small country to go through this intense war twice in just over a year and a half.

A (7:16)

Zooming out for a bit because you've covered the Middle east for many years, and I'm interested in your take on how this war could affect the geopolitics in the region. So Iran has been firing missiles and drones into neighbo countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Oman. And Iran says they're aiming at things like US Military bases, but we know that civilian targets have been hit, too. Can you talk about how these Gulf states around Iran are reacting to all this?

B (7:46)

Well, they're not happy, that's for sure. I think that probably what happened was Saudi leaders telling the United States, telling President Trump, you know, we believe that Iran is not as weak as you think that it is. We prefer diplomacy, but if you go for war, you have to go all the way, because we don't want to be left with a vengeful, spiteful regime in place that is probably going to continue to fund militias in the region as much as it can and probably rush to get a nuclear bomb. So now what we're seeing is very much Iran trying to raise the cost of this war for everybody, including Gulf countries, in the hope that the some of these Gulf countries will then pressure the United States to wrap up as quickly as possible because oil prices are going up, trade routes are disrupted, energy production is disrupted, tourism is disrupted. This is not the vision that neither Dubai nor Riyadh had for the future.

A (8:49)

You talk about Iran's motive in sort of sending strikes into neighboring countries. Could be to get the US to back off. But could this also backfire in terms of driving its neighboring countries closer together, aligning them more against Iran?

B (9:07)

Absolutely. I think we're already seeing that. I think that countries that have often tension in their relations, especially recently the Saudis and the Emiratis had a big spat. Think they've all rallied together in the face of. Of this unexpected, to some extent, conflict in the region. Whether they will come together and also fight back, I'm not sure. We're there yet. I don't see at this moment in time Gulf countries participating actively in this conflict. I think they would still try to stay not on the sideline, but not participate fully. And they've made assertions to this effect that they're not allowing their airspace to be used, that they're not allowing their territory to be used. I don't at the moment think yet that this is about to change.

A (9:58)

Kim Gattas is a journalist based in Beirut and author of Black Saudi Arabia, Iran and the 40 year rivalry that Unraveled Culture, Religion, and Collective Memory in the Middle East. Kim, thanks for joining us.

B (10:12)

Great to be with you.

A (10:13)

Reporting from NPR's Hadeel Al Shalchi contributed to this story. This episode was produced by Daniel Offman. It was edited by Michael Levitt, Sarah Robbins and Hannah Block. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigun. It's consider this from NPR. I'm Adrian Ma.

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