Prelude to a conclave: understanding the selection process of a new pope

Summary

Consider This from NPR: Prelude to a Conclave – Understanding the Selection Process of a New Pope

Release Date: May 4, 2025

In this episode of NPR's "Consider This," host Scott Detrow delves into the intricate and solemn process of selecting a new pope, set against the backdrop of Cardinal Timothy Dolan's preparations for the upcoming conclave. Through insightful interviews and on-the-ground reporting, the episode sheds light on the traditions, challenges, and key players involved in this significant event for the Catholic Church.

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1. Cardinal Timothy Dolan’s Final Mass

The episode opens with Cardinal Timothy Dolan, the Archbishop of New York, conducting a solemn Mass at his parish church, Our Lady of Guadalupe in Mount Mario. Unlike the grand ceremonies typically associated with the papal conclave, Dolan's Mass is depicted in a humble Roman neighborhood, emphasizing the personal and spiritual dimension of his role.

Notable Quote:

"I was so nervous last time, and I thought, now what do I do? But now I feel kind of seasoned, a little more relaxed."
— Cardinal Timothy Dolan [00:36]

Dolan reflects on his previous experience during the 2013 conclave, highlighting his growth and readiness to participate once again in the selection of a new pope.

2. Media Interaction and Hopes for the Next Pope

After Mass, Cardinal Dolan interacts with the media, expressing his aspirations for the qualities of the next pope. He envisions a combination of the attributes from recent popes, aiming for a leader who embodies intellect, courage, and a strong call to follow Jesus.

Notable Quote:

"If we get a beautiful combination, that'll be a blessing."
— Cardinal Timothy Dolan [01:59]

He cites Pope Francis, Benedict XVI, and Pope Saint John Paul II as exemplars, hoping the new pope will amalgamate these esteemed characteristics.

3. Preparing for the Conclave: On the Ground at Vatican City

Scott Detrow transitions to the vibrant atmosphere of St. Peter's Square, capturing the anticipation surrounding the conclave. With Silvia Poggioli, an experienced Vatican correspondent for NPR, Detrow explores the logistics and significance of the conclave's commencement.

Notable Quote:

"When they enter the conclave, the cardinals take an oath of secrecy on penalty of excommunication."
— Silvia Poggioli [06:02]

Silvia emphasizes the unique blend of democratic process and profound tradition that characterizes the conclave, highlighting the stringent measures to maintain secrecy and the cardinal electors' isolation from the outside world.

4. The Conclave's Unique Rituals and Secrecy

Silvia Poggioli provides an in-depth explanation of the conclave's ceremonial aspects, including the symbolic burning of ballots to signal election outcomes—black smoke for no decision and white smoke announcing a new pope. She underscores the importance of ritual and secrecy in maintaining the sanctity and integrity of the selection process.

Notable Quote:

"Vatican workers have installed a raised wooden flooring, not just to protect the marble floors below, but perhaps also to hide electronic jamming equipment."
— Silvia Poggioli [06:43]

This meticulous preparation ensures that the conclave remains free from external influences, fostering an environment where cardinals can deliberate and choose the next pope based solely on their discernment.

5. Composition and Dynamics of the College of Cardinals

Silvia breaks down the composition of the College of Cardinals, detailing the geographical diversity that now significantly influences the election dynamics. The current field comprises 135 cardinals, with a majority appointed by Pope Francis, reflecting a shift towards the global South in Catholic leadership.

Notable Quote:

"The growth of Catholicism has shifted from Europe and North America to the global South."
— Silvia Poggioli [08:30]

She discusses the emerging factions within the College—progressives, conservatives, and centrists—each vying for influence and advocating for different visions of the Church's future.

6. Potential Candidates and Speculations

Looking ahead to the conclave, Silvia outlines the leading candidates poised to become the next pope. She mentions influential figures such as Pietro Parolin, Pier Battista Pizzaballa, and Luis Antonio Tagle, each representing different factions and embodying distinct leadership styles.

Notable Quote:

"There's luis Antonio Tagle, 67 years old from the Philippines, Asia's biggest Catholic country, who's seen every as very much in the Francis mold."
— Silvia Poggioli [10:16]

Her analysis offers listeners a glimpse into the intricate balance of tradition and modernity that the new pope is expected to navigate, as well as the potential impact of global Catholicism's evolving landscape.

7. Anticipating the Conclave’s Outcome

As the conclave approaches, the episode anticipates the timeline and procedures leading to the announcement of the new pope. Silvia projects that the conclave is likely to conclude by Friday, bringing closure to the period of deliberation and speculation.

Notable Quote:

"My guess is that the latest, by Friday we should hear the name of the new pope."
— Silvia Poggioli [10:06]

Detrow and Poggioli sign off with reflections on the significance of this process, underlining its role in shaping the future direction of the Catholic Church.

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Conclusion

This episode of "Consider This" masterfully navigates the complexities of the papal conclave, blending on-site reporting with expert insights to provide a comprehensive understanding of the event. By highlighting Cardinal Dolan's personal preparations and Silvia Poggioli's authoritative analysis, the episode equips listeners with a nuanced perspective on one of the Catholic Church's most pivotal traditions.

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Production Credits: Produced by Tyler Bartlem, edited by Courtney Dorning, with executive production by Sammy.

Support NPR: Listeners are encouraged to support NPR and access sponsor-free content through Consider This+ at plus.npr.org/considerthis.

Transcript

[Cardinal Timothy Dolan]

Gracia. Nice to see you all.

[Scott Detrow]

It's Sunday morning, and Cardinal Timothy Dolan, the archbishop of New York, is getting ready for Mass. Every member of the College of Cardinals is assigned a Roman church that they're nominally in charge of. And days before the beginning of the conclave to select the next pope, Dolan is visiting his church to celebrate 11:15 Mass. The ceremonies and rituals surrounding the death of one pope and the election of another all take place in ornate ancient cathedrals. That is not the scene at Our lady of Guadalupe in Mount Mario. In a residential Roman neighborhood, it looks like scores of other parish churches around the globe. The statue of Jesus isn't sculpted by Michelangelo. It's a painted plaster of Jesus with a sacred heart and red robes. The prayers of the faithful are read by an Italian teenager wearing a hoodie. Dolan delivers his homily in Italian. He tells the congregation that Our lady of Guadalupe is his second parish after St Patrick's Cathedral in Manhattan. And he asks them to pray for him and the other cardinals, saying they need the Holy Spirit as they enter the upcoming Conclave. Then he says he recalls Pope Francis advice to keep homily short and says, enough.

[Cardinal Timothy Dolan]

So basta. Congrats.

[Scott Detrow]

The Mass ends. Cardinal Dolan stands at the door of the church, greeting parishioners, posing for pictures of children kissing babies.

[Cardinal Timothy Dolan]

Mamma mia trovarvi cui Grazie. Buona Dominica a tutti.

[Scott Detrow]

And after that, he spends a few minutes with another important contingency, the media. Reporters from all over the world crowd around him, asking questions about the coming conclave, what he wants to see in the next pope.

[Cardinal Timothy Dolan]

You know, we're blessed because with all the popes we've recently had, you see so many great characteristics, and you kind of hope that maybe we could blend them all. I'm thinking obviously of Papa Francesco. I think, though, of Benedict XVI with his intense intellect. I'm thinking of Pope Saint John Paul II with his courage and his call, his call to follow Jesus. If we get a beautiful combination, that'll be a blessing.

[Scott Detrow]

What are you taking from your experience in 2013? How has that affected how you.

[Cardinal Timothy Dolan]

I was so nervous last time, and I thought, now what do I do? But now I feel kind of seasoned, a little more relaxed.

[Scott Detrow]

Consider this. Cardinal Dolan begins this week as a member of the College of Cardinals. Starting Wednesday, he, like any of his peers, could become the next Pope. Coming up, NPR's Silvia Paggioli explains what happens in a conclave. From NPR, I'm Scott Detrow.

[Sarah Gonzalez]

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[Scott Detrow]

It's consider this from NPR. It is a bright, sunny day here in St. Peter's Square. The square is filled with tourists and religious pilgrims, which is common. What's uncommon are the signs of preparation for the conclave all around us. The conclave begins Wednesday. There are big platforms with TV lights for the media, huge TV monitors around the square so that people, people can watch feeds of the Sistine Chapel chimney. There are wooden fences to corral the expected crowds of hundreds of thousands who will crowd the square when a pope is chosen. Silvia Poggioli has covered the Vatican and several conclaves for npr, and she joins me on the edge of Vatican City to talk through what's to come. Welcome, Sylvia.

[Silvia Poggioli]

Thank you for having me here.

[Scott Detrow]

Let's start with this setting. You and I are both looking out at St. Peter's Basilica at the square right now. And if we crane our necks just enough from where we're sitting, we can see the edge of the Sistine Chapel chimney that was just put in place. Can we start by talking about the significance of where we're located right now?

[Silvia Poggioli]

Well, that Sistine Chapel, it's the one with the wall and the ceiling, magnificent frescoes that Michelangelo completed in 1512. We can't see it, but there's a copper pipe that leads from the chimney to a cast iron stove inside the chapel where the cardinal's ballots will be burned. The color of the smoke will signal the results of the balloting, black for no pope elected and white smoke when there is a new pope.

[Scott Detrow]

On one hand, this is an election just like any other election Right. There's caucusing going on, there's votes that are going to be cast. On the other hand, there's this extreme pageantry and ritual. You've covered a number of conclaves. What makes this process so unique?

[Silvia Poggioli]

Well, precisely that I think the colorful ritual and of course, the secrecy. When they enter the conclave, the cardinals take an oath of secrecy on penalty of excommunication. And they must make their decision without any outside influence to ensure they'll be held in communicado from the rest of the world as they vote. Mobile phones are banned. There's no tv, no radio, no newspapers. In addition, Vatican workers have installed a raised wooden flooring, not just to protect the marble floors below, but perhaps also to hide electronic jamming equipment. And Vatican security will sweep the chapel for hidden microphones and other listening devices.

[Scott Detrow]

Despite our best attempts, I guess, obviously the focus is on this ritual that begins on Wednesday, but a lot's going on right now and that's a process that's pretty important to the eventual outcome. Walk us through what the cardinals have been up to in the days since Pope Francis funeral.

[Silvia Poggioli]

Well, all the cardinals voting age and Even the over 80 year olds have been meeting in what are called congregations, discussing many issues that the Catholic Church is now facing a serious deficit in the Vatican finances to clerical sex abuse scandals that have come to light throughout the world. And these are scandals that have been dealt with very, very poorly by most of the national churches. The cardinals are expected to observe secrecy, but there have been some leaks that suggest the various factions have begun to face off the progressives who embrace the reforms of Pope Francis, the conservatives and traditionalists who want to slow down the pace of reform, if not reverse it completely, and the centrists who are somewhere in between.

[Scott Detrow]

Who makes up the College of Cardinals?

[Silvia Poggioli]

There are 53 voting age cardinals from Europe, 17 from South America, 16 from North America, 18 from Africa, and 23 from Asia. The total comes to 135. Two are too sick to attend, which means 133 will elect the new Pope, compared to 115 in the last conclave that elected Jorge Bergoglio. The novelty this time is that many of the cardinals have never met. So they're now getting to know each other, making alliances and promoting their candidates or even themselves as future popes.

[Scott Detrow]

When we think about the blocks here, there's a lot of focus on the geography you just mentioned, the different locations they come from. There's also this focus on which pope appointed them. Are these both the important factors to think about.

[Silvia Poggioli]

Yeah, very much so. Pope Francis appointed some 80% of the voting cardinals and he chose men from faraway countries where there had never been cardinals before. His picks are not necessarily all progressives, but they reflect the fact that the growth of Catholicism has shifted from Europe and North America to the global South.

[Scott Detrow]

So let's look ahead to Wednesday morning when you and I and the rest of the NPR team will be settling in here to look at a chimney with binoculars. What all is going to happen to begin this ritual, a Mass will be.

[Silvia Poggioli]

Celebrated in St. Peter's in the morning. And in the afternoon, the cardinals will be escorted by Vatican gendarme to the Sistine Chapel. Once inside, the master of liturgical celebrations will say the words extra omnis, meaning all who aren't cardinal electors get out. After that, the door is shut. Conclave, after all, means with key and the waiting begins.

[Scott Detrow]

So when they're in the Sistine Chapel, they're sitting there in silence. But can we assume that there is politicking, there is debating, there is campaigning going on in the other spaces when they're all together?

[Silvia Poggioli]

Well, many of us have seen the movie Conclave that suggested that there's quite a lot of communication and scheming between cardinals and nuns and other Vatican prelates at the residence where the cardinals take their meals and are lodged when not in the Sistine Chapel. I think that's pretty exaggerated, but there's no question that they certainly do talk and caucus among themselves.

[Scott Detrow]

And I want to ask you the two questions that I feel like you've probably been fielding from everybody you've come across the last couple weeks. The first question is how long do you think it's going to take? Do we have any sense how long this could be?

[Silvia Poggioli]

My guess is that the latest, by Friday we should hear the name of the new pope.

[Scott Detrow]

And second question, do you have a guess on who it might be or at least the type of person we're thinking about?

[Silvia Poggioli]

Well, I can tell you who the favorites are, according to the leading Vaticanisti. Those are the veteran journalists who cover the Vatican. There's the current secretary of state, Pietro Parolin, 70 years old, a veteran diplomat. He's the architect of the Vatican's rapprochement with China, which makes him disliked by many conservatives. He could be described as a centrist. Then there's another Italian, Pier Battista Pizzaballa, the 60 year old Latin patriarch of Jerusalem who offered himself in exchange for Israeli hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza. And he's said to have support of both ends of the conservative and progressive spectrum. Then there's luis Antonio Tagle, 67 years old from the Philippines, Asia's biggest Catholic country, who's seen every as very much in the Francis mold. And then there are several others who have been mentioned in the last few days. At the same time, there's also been an uptick in negative rumors and fake news on social media about some of the frontrunners. And that's a sign that there are some very strong papavili possible popes.

[Scott Detrow]

That is NPR's Sylvia Poggioli. Thank you so much for talking to us.

[Silvia Poggioli]

Thank you.

[Scott Detrow]

This episode was produced by Tyler Bartlem and edited by Courtney Dorning. Our executive producer is Sammy. Yet again, it's consider this from NPR. I'm Scott Detrow.

[Sarah Gonzalez]

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