President Trump is upending global trade as we know it. What comes next?

Summary

Consider This: President Trump is Upending Global Trade as We Know It

Episode Title: President Trump is upending global trade as we know it. What comes next?
Release Date: August 13, 2025
Host: Ari Shapiro
Source: NPR's Consider This

Introduction

In this episode of NPR's Consider This, host Ari Shapiro delves into the seismic shifts in global trade orchestrated by President Donald Trump. The discussion centers on how Trump's administration has dramatically altered the landscape of international commerce, challenging longstanding agreements and norms.

Trump's Reshaping of Global Trade

Ari Shapiro begins by contextualizing the controversy surrounding global trade, referencing the 1999 WTO conference in Seattle, which saw massive protests against economic globalization. He highlights that despite decades of expanding global trade, opposition remains strong, notably from the current U.S. administration.

Notable Quote:

Donald Trump (00:37): "Foreign leaders have stolen our jobs, foreign cheaters have ransacked our factories, and foreign scavengers have torn apart our once beautiful American dream."

Trump's tenure, particularly his second term, has been marked by aggressive maneuvers to overhaul the global trading system. He emphasizes reciprocity and stringent tariffs as tools to renegotiate trade deals.

Notable Quote:

Donald Trump (00:53): "Trade order, instituting reciprocal tariffs, very severe tariffs. If we don't have a deal in 50 days, a 25% tariff on all cars that are not made in the United States. If you want to play ball, this is what you have to pay."

The Decline of the Traditional Global Trading System

The core of the episode features an insightful conversation with Michael Froman, president of the Council on Foreign Relations and former U.S. Trade Representative. Froman asserts that the post-World War II global trading system, characterized by predictable and stable rules, is effectively "dead."

Notable Quote:

Michael Froman (03:02): "It's Consider this from NPR the global trading system as we have known it is dead."

Froman outlines the historical success of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in fostering economic integration and reducing poverty worldwide. However, he acknowledges that the system has faced growing unpopularity due to its impact on domestic economies, particularly among workers who have suffered from job losses and wage pressures as industries moved overseas.

Failings of the Previous Trade System

Froman discusses the inherent challenges of global integration, noting that increased competition from low-wage countries has strained domestic industries in the U.S., leading to factory closures and economic displacement in certain communities.

Notable Quote:

Michael Froman (04:32): "Workers in the United States, as it became more subject to competition from low wage countries abroad, found pressure on their own wages, found that certain industries could be done more cheaply, more effectively in other countries."

The Need for a New Global Trade Framework

Rejecting the notion of reverting to pre-Trump trade policies, Froman advocates for forming new coalitions among willing and ambitious countries to establish fresh rules that address contemporary challenges. He emphasizes areas like competition with China, technology, and the digital economy as potential focal points for new agreements.

Notable Quote:

Michael Froman (05:16): "Can we play a leadership role in setting the rules of the road for those issues and begin to create rules even in the absence of a fully multilateral rules based system?"

Addressing Instability and Predictability

Froman highlights the current volatility in trade policies, with fluctuating tariff rates creating uncertainty for businesses and workers. He warns that continued chaos could lead to "anarchy" in global trade, underscoring the urgent need for a more stable and predictable system.

Notable Quote:

Michael Froman (06:32): "That's exactly the issue is that it's because of the chaotic conditions that we currently have that that I worry that other countries will start to imitate the United States and basically set new rules themselves day by day... Companies and workers and farmers and ranchers, they need stability."

Prospects for the Future

Looking ahead, Froman anticipates a period of instability as current trade agreements are negotiated and implemented. He remains cautiously optimistic that, over time, the U.S. can spearhead the creation of new trade rules that better reflect today's economic realities and strategic interests.

Notable Quote:

Michael Froman (07:31): "The US May well say, well, we have an interest in bringing a group of countries together. Perhaps there's room for that kind of leadership going forward."

Conclusion

The episode concludes with Froman reaffirming the need for strategic leadership in redefining global trade norms. As the U.S. navigates the complexities of a transformed trade environment, the path forward involves balancing national interests with the imperatives of international cooperation.

Notable Quote:

Ari Shapiro (08:32): "His article 'After the Trade War' is in the new issue of Foreign Affairs."

Final Thoughts

NPR's Consider This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the ongoing transformation in global trade under President Trump's administration. Through expert insights from Michael Froman, listeners gain a deeper understanding of the challenges and potential pathways for establishing a new, more equitable global trading system.

Transcript

[Ari Shapiro]

Global trade has always been controversial. Just look at the early years of the World trade organization. In 1999, the WTO was set to hold its first big US based conference in Seattle. The city erupted into chaos. More than 50,000 protesters descended on Seattle that week, a broad coalition with a clear no economic globalization. Since then, global trade has expanded dramatically. It has been the status quo, but opposition remains fierce, including from our president.

[Donald Trump]

Foreign leaders have stolen our jobs, foreign cheaters have ransacked our factories, and foreign scavengers have torn apart our once beautiful American dream.

[Ari Shapiro]

In his second term, President Trump has taken drastic steps to reshape the global.

[Donald Trump]

Trade order, instituting reciprocal tariffs, very severe tariffs. If we don't have a deal in 50 days, a 25% tariff on all cars that are not made in the United States. If you want to play ball, this is what you have to pay.

[Ari Shapiro]

Consider this. President Trump is upending global trade as we know it. So what comes next? From npr, I'm Ari Shapiro.

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[Ari Shapiro]

It'S Consider this from NPR the global trading system as we have known it is dead. Those are the words of former U.S. trade Representative Michael Froman. He's now president of the Council on Foreign Relations. So if the era of global free trade is over, the question is, what comes next? Froman tries to answer that question in a new piece for Foreign affairs called after the Trade War. Welcome.

[Michael Froman]

Well, thanks for having me.

[Ari Shapiro]

Let's establish what exactly it is that you are declaring dead. Briefly, what was the global trading system as we have known it?

[Michael Froman]

Well, for 80 years, really, after the Second World War, the major economies of the world built up a system of rules and procedures that led to more integration of economies, more opening, but very importantly, just more predictability and stability because there were well established rules that every country agreed to. And over the years, more and more countries joined the global trading system. Russia did, China did, and it led to this era of globalization. And the Arab globalization had a lot of pros and cons. It has certainly been the most powerful force for poverty alleviation in human history.

[Ari Shapiro]

But at least for a couple decades now, it's been not universally popular. I mean, even before Trump took office and started raising tariffs on allies and enemies alike, Democrats and Republicans had started to turn against free trade. So what were some of its major failings?

[Michael Froman]

You know, I think the challenge is, is that in a system of global integration there is further competition and that competition has effects on the domestic economy. So workers in the United States, as it became more subject to competition from low wage countries abroad, found pressure on their own wages, found that certain industries could be done more cheaply, more effectively in other countries. And that led to the closing of factories or the moving of factories from certain communities.

[Ari Shapiro]

You argue that it is not realistic or even a good idea to try to return to the system of a few decades ago. So what do you think, think the new global trade system should look like?

[Michael Froman]

Well, the challenge we have now is, is the US Is playing by its own set of rules. And frankly, China has been playing by its own set of rules. And so you have the two largest economies in the world who aren't really following the rules based system. And that's why I think the system is, is basically dead. And so the question is, can we come together, coalitions of the willing coalitions of the ambitious countries that come together with common interests and define a new set of rules around issues that they can agree on? For some countries, that might mean opening their economy, free trade agreements. That's probably not the United States right now. For other countries like the United States, we have a lot of interest in trying to bring other countries together around our view of competition with China, our view on technology, our view on the digital economy. Can we play a leadership role in setting the rules of the road for those issues and begin to create rules even in the absence of a fully multilateral rules based system?

[Ari Shapiro]

You've used the word rules quite a few times and rules require predictability. And in the last six months, tariff rates and deadlines have jumped up and down and it's anything but predictable. How can any trading partners depend on a system of rules to follow under those chaotic conditions?

[Michael Froman]

That's exactly the issue is that it's because of the chaotic conditions that we currently have that that I worry that other countries will start to imitate the United States and basically set new rules themselves day by day, whatever they're feeling like, and introduce a lot of instability into global trade. And companies and workers and farmers and ranchers, they need stability. They want to understand what is the price they're going to get for the product they're growing. And so it's precisely because there's a risk of this becoming chaotic anarchy that we need to say, okay, let's take a step back. Really not going to go back to the way things were before. Nostalgia is not a strategy, neither is hope. But we can agree on a certain set of rules on areas that we can agree to to help re establish predictability and stability in the global trading system.

[Ari Shapiro]

You've described what you think should happen. When you look at the state of the world right now, what do you think is actually likely to happen?

[Michael Froman]

Well, I think for some period of time we're likely to see this chaos or this unpredictability, I should say, where tariff rates are changing week by week or month by month. Now, as the Trump administration puts in place trade agreements and to the degree that they hold, and by the way, there's just a lot of detail still to negotiate on virtually all of these trade agreements. Hopefully some of that instability will begin to recede. I think the question is, after that period is over, after countries adjust to what the Trump administration has done, where do they want to take the global system next? So it may not happen for the next three years or somewhere down the road. The US May well say, well, we have an interest in bringing a group of countries together. Perhaps there's room for that kind of leadership going forward.

[Ari Shapiro]

That's Michael Froman, president of the Council on Foreign relations and former U.S. trade representative. His article after the Trade War is in the new issue of Foreign Affairs. Thanks so much.

[Michael Froman]

Thank you.

[Ari Shapiro]

This episode was produced by Katherine Fink, Tyler Bartlem, and Vincent Akovino. It was edited by Courtney Dorning. Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun. It's Consider this from npr. I'm Ari Shapiro.

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