Separating election facts from fiction

Summary

Consider This from NPR: Separating Election Facts from Fiction

Episode Overview In this episode of NPR’s Consider This, host Scott Detrow delves into the intricacies of the current presidential race, which has poised several swing states in a statistical tie. With Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump both exuding confidence, the episode explores the contentious narratives surrounding election integrity, particularly focusing on claims of voter fraud and non-citizen voting. Voting correspondent Miles Parks provides an in-depth analysis, helping listeners distinguish between factual information and political rhetoric as the nation edges closer to election day.

---

1. The Tight Presidential Race and Emerging Fraud Claims

The episode opens with Scott Detrow highlighting the razor-thin margins in key swing states, setting the stage for a potentially decisive election hinging on a few thousand votes. Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump’s campaigns are in a stalemate, fostering an environment ripe for disputes over election legitimacy.

Notable Quote:

Donald Trump [00:25]: "Because they cheat. That's the only way we're going to lose. Because they cheat. They cheat like hell... The Democrats are a threat to democracy."

Timestamp: 00:25

Detrow emphasizes that regardless of the election outcome, Trump and his allies are likely to propagate narratives questioning the election results, often blending misleading information with occasional truths to bolster their claims.

---

2. Claims of Non-Citizen Voting: Fact vs. Fiction

Detrow brings in Miles Parks to dissect the prevalent right-wing narrative that illegal immigrants are attempting to sway the election by voting unlawfully. Parks counters these claims by presenting data and expert opinions.

Notable Quote:

Miles Parks [02:36]: "Every single study has found it to be incredibly rare. A recent audit of Georgia's voter rolls found 20 confirmed non-citizens out of more than 8 million voters."

Timestamp: 02:36

Parks acknowledges that while instances of non-citizen voting do occur, they are exceedingly rare and subject to stringent consequences, including potential deportation for the individuals involved. He highlights that federal laws and state-level checks make widespread non-citizen voting virtually nonexistent.

---

3. The Legality and Oversight of Voter Registration

The discussion progresses to the complexities of voter registration laws, particularly the federal restrictions on requiring proof of citizenship. Parks explains how states leverage existing data from driver’s licenses and Social Security numbers to monitor voter eligibility effectively.

Notable Quote:

Miles Parks [03:33]: "The vast majority register to vote using either a driver's license or a Social Security number. These are agencies that do have access to citizenship data."

Timestamp: 03:33

Detrow and Parks delve into the mechanisms that allow election officials to verify voter eligibility and pursue prosecutions when necessary, reinforcing the robustness of the electoral system against fraudulent activities.

---

4. The Narrative of Election Cheating and Its Political Ramifications

Detrow shifts the focus to the broader narrative of election cheating propagated by Trump and his supporters. Parks discusses how these claims are strategically aligned with politically salient issues like immigration to mobilize the base.

Notable Quote:

Miles Parks [04:38]: "The other thing I'll note... it does happen occasionally. A few people get arrested for this. So it's much harder to debunk a narrative like that that actually has a little bit of truth to it."

Timestamp: 04:38

Parks underscores the challenge in combating such narratives, as the rare instances of voter fraud provide a semblance of credibility, making it harder to dismiss the overarching claims of widespread cheating.

---

5. The Role of Social Media and Public Statements in Shaping Perceptions

The episode examines the influence of platforms like X (formerly Twitter) and figures like Elon Musk in amplifying baseless election fraud theories.

Notable Quote:

Scott Detrow [05:35]: "But it's impossible to prove."

Timestamp: 05:35

Parks reiterates the absence of evidence for large-scale fraud, emphasizing that every vote is recorded and scrutinized, and any attempts at fraud are swiftly identified and addressed by vigilant election officials.

---

6. Mail-In Voting, Fraud Allegations, and the Counting Process

Detrow and Parks discuss the vulnerabilities and safeguards associated with mail-in voting. They highlight historical instances where mail-in ballots were scrutinized and the electoral system's capacity to detect and rectify fraudulent votes.

Notable Quote:

Miles Parks [06:33]: "I would just urge people to listen to what Republican election officials have consistently said, which is that voting by mail is marginally more vulnerable to fraud. But again, there has never been evidence that this is at a wide scale."

Timestamp: 06:33

The conversation touches on the procedural aspects of vote counting in swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, explaining how the delayed processing of mail-in ballots is a legitimate administrative process rather than evidence of fraud.

---

7. Judicial Challenges and Legal Battles Over Election Integrity

Parks outlines the ongoing legal battles targeting various aspects of election administration, from voter roll purges to the handling of mail-in ballots.

Notable Quote:

Miles Parks [10:18]: "What’s interesting this cycle... is kind of election fighters in the courtroom to try to challenge the election results should Trump lose after the election."

Timestamp: 10:18

He notes that while legal disputes over elections are not unprecedented, the current cycle is marked by strategic litigation aimed at preemptively contesting potential election outcomes unfavorable to Trump.

---

8. Public Perception and Voter Confidence in Election Integrity

Detrow inquires about the impact of these narratives on voter confidence. Parks presents conflicting data from recent polls, indicating a divided public perception regarding the integrity of the upcoming election.

Notable Quote:

Miles Parks [11:18]: "We have a Pew Research center poll found recently that more than 70% of Americans are confident in how the elections are gonna run."

Timestamp: 11:18

Despite concerns about voter fraud, the majority of Americans express confidence in the electoral process, particularly in their local election workers who are pivotal in maintaining election integrity.

---

Conclusion: Navigating Election Narratives with Confidence

Scott Detrow wraps up the episode by emphasizing the importance of distinguishing between fact and fiction in the heated election discourse. With Miles Parks’ insights, listeners are encouraged to trust in the established electoral safeguards and remain vigilant against unfounded claims that seek to undermine the democratic process.

---

Final Thoughts This episode of Consider This offers a comprehensive examination of the current election landscape, dissecting prevalent myths and providing listeners with the factual groundwork needed to navigate the complexities of election integrity debates. By presenting expert analysis and balanced perspectives, NPR ensures that the audience is well-equipped to discern truth from political rhetoric as the nation approaches a pivotal election.

Transcript

[Scott Detrow]

We are down to the wire in the presidential race. And polling across the board has nearly every swing state in a statistical tie, meaning the election may come down to a couple thousand votes. Vice President Kamala Harris campaign is exuding confidence, as is former President Donald Trump's. It could go either way. But if Trump loses like he did in 2020, he is ready to sell a story that he has been spinning for months.

[Donald Trump]

Because they cheat. That's the only way we're going to lose. Because they cheat. They cheat like hell. And a lot of these illegal immigrants come. They're trying to get them to vote. They are a threat to democracy. The Democrats are a threat to democracy. That's the real threat under my plan.

[Scott Detrow]

America, consider this. No matter who wins in the coming days, we are going to hear a lot more from Donald Trump and his allies about the results. And if history is any guide, we can expect a mix of misleading information, rumors and outright lies. From npr, I'm Scott Detrow.

[Ira Glass]

This is Ira Glass of this American Life. Each week on our show, we choose a theme, tell different stories on that theme. All right, I'm just going to stop right there. You're listening to an NPR podcast. Chances are you know our show. So instead I'm going to tell you we've just been on a run of really good shows lately, some big, epic, emotional stories and some weird, funny stuff, too. Download us this American Life.

[NPR Announcer]

Okay, so does this sound like you, you love NPR's podcasts. You wish you could get more of all your favorite shows and you want to support NPR's mission to create a more informed public. If all that sounds appealing, then it is time to sign up for the NPR Bundle. Learn more at plus.NPR.org Joe Biden's on his way out and Donald Trump's on his way back. Want to know what's happening as the presidential transition is underway? The NPR Politics podcast has you covered with the latest news and analysis. Listen to the NPR Politics podcast.

[Scott Detrow]

It's consider this from npr. We're back with voting correspondent Miles Parks. Hey, Miles.

[Miles Parks]

Hey, Scott.

[Scott Detrow]

Let us start with what seems to be the most common talking point on the right when it comes to the election. Let's hear it.

[Donald Trump]

A lot of these illegal immigrants coming in, they're trying to get them to vote.

[Scott Detrow]

Myles, we have talked about this before, but we need to talk about it again because we keep hearing it. What are the facts? Not the framing, the facts. When it comes to non citizen voting.

[Miles Parks]

Every single study has found it to be incredibly rare. A recent audit of Georgia's voter rolls, for instance, found 20 confirmed non citizens out of more than 8 million voters. That being said, Scott, it does occasionally happen. People do occasionally slip through the cracks, rather intentionally or by accident. A person was recently arrested, for instance, in Michigan for being a non citizen and voting. But that's the thing, and that's what election officials always go back to, is that there is a powerful deterrent here. You, if you are a non citizen and you vote, that is illegal. And if you are arrested, that can risk your path to citizenship, which seems like act like a pretty powerful deterrent.

[Scott Detrow]

Consequences, serious consequences.

[Miles Parks]

Yeah.

[Scott Detrow]

Still, a lot of conservative commentators and Republican lawmakers are echoing this narrative.

[Miles Parks]

There's a number of states that are not requiring proof of citizenship when illegals or non citizens register to vote. We know that's happening.

[Scott Detrow]

That is the speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, speaking to Face the Nation. Myles, what's the reality here?

[Miles Parks]

It's a little bit complicated because Johnson is right. Federal law prohibits most states from requiring proof of citizenship to vote. That being said, it's not like states have no idea who's on their voter rolls. The vast majority, majority of people register to vote using either a driver's license or a Social Security number. These are agencies that do have access to citizenship data. So government officials have the ability to check the citizenship for most of the people on their voter rolls. And if they have a reason to believe that one of these people has cast a ballot illegally, they can refer that person to prosecution. That's the other important part here. Elections have records. There are ways to find this stuff out.

[Scott Detrow]

Do we know how you mentioned there have been a couple recent arrests. Do we know the process of how those people were flagged?

[Miles Parks]

After the election, election officials go back through their voter rules, look and see if there are people who have indicated they're noncitizens. And you'll usually see a wave of arrests.

[Scott Detrow]

But still, when it comes to a widespread, systemic, organized plan to do this, there's just no evidence of that. We have not seen that in the past.

[Miles Parks]

It's never been found. Right.

[Scott Detrow]

Why then does this narrative of non citizen voting, this false narrative, help Trump's broader false claims about election integrity?

[Miles Parks]

I think the sense from election officials I've talked to is that the election narratives of 2020 were starting to get a little bit stale. And so when you look ahead at 2024, what is the major political point on the right right now? It is immigration. And so what experts see is basically a marrying of these two narratives. You've got an issue that is very politically salient and you've got Trump trying to kind of activate people on that. The other thing I'll note in terms of why this is a successful election conspiracy theory is, like I mentioned, it does happen occasionally. Every election cycle. You'll see this, A few people get arrested for this. And so it's much harder to debunk a narrative like that that actually has a little bit of truth to it, as opposed to voting machines are being controlled by a satellite or something.

[Scott Detrow]

Yeah, let's talk about a different narrative that we've been hearing a lot of lately. This is this idea of cheating. There is, I think, some amount of.

[Miles Parks]

Cheating that takes place.

[Scott Detrow]

It's hard because they've.

[Miles Parks]

When you have mail in ballots and no sort of proof of citizenship, it.

[Scott Detrow]

Becomes almost impossible to prove.

[Miles Parks]

Cheating is the issue.

[Scott Detrow]

So that's Elon Musk, billionaire Trump supporter, who has pushed a lot of these baseless theories, especially on his social media platform X, which used to be known as Twitter. What do you make of that? It's, this is happening, but it's impossible to prove.

[Miles Parks]

I mean, it just conveniently forgets that every time somebody votes, there is a record associated with that vote. Right. That is what voter registration literally is. And so I would just urge people to go listen to what Republican election officials have consistently said, which is that voting by mail, yes, is marginally more vulnerable to fraud. But again, there has never been evidence that this is at a wide scale. When it does happen, usually at the hyper local level, it gets found out. Right? I mean, think about a few years ago, North Carolina's 9th congressional district, where there had to be a new election because of some vote by mail fraud. That's a situation where the system worked. Right. And so in most election jurisdictions, there are members of both political parties watching basically every aspect of the elections process. If something like this was happening, we would know about it.

[Scott Detrow]

And again, just a reminder that in 2020, so many attempts were made to litigate this in court. And every single time it didn't move forward because there was no hard evidence of the stuff that Trump was claiming. But even as Trump tries to win Pennsylvania, which everybody sees as almost certainly the most important state on the electoral map, he is posting things like this just the other day on Truth Social. This is from Trump. Pennsylvania is cheating and getting caught at large scale levels rarely seen before. Report cheating to authorities. Law enforcement must act now, any sense what rhetoric like this before the election is finished, before the results are in any sense what he may do if he does lose Pennsylvania, if he does lose the presidential election, I think there's.

[Miles Parks]

Full expectation that if he loses Pennsylvania, that the idea will be that the vote was rigged. I mean, for four years, there have been calls from election officials from both parties for Pennsylvania to change how they count votes. There are rules in place that make it just take a lot longer to count mail ballots than they do to count in person votes, because they can't start until Election Day.

[Scott Detrow]

And Democrats have tried to change that law, but Republicans have largely blocked it.

[Miles Parks]

Republicans in the legislature have blocked it. Right. And so we've been kind of for four years looking ahead at this election, knowing what was coming. And what we are going to see almost certainly is that after the election, mail ballots, which are going to be largely Democratic votes at this point, are going to take longer to count than Republican votes. And so you can kind of see the writing on the wall of how Trump has messaged in situations like this before.

[Scott Detrow]

And that leads to another big question that I have for you, and you might not actually know the answer. And I think that's important to say if that's the case, because on Tuesday night, you and I and millions and millions of people are going to be watching election results come in and trying to see who won what state. Now, four years ago, and to a different extent in 2016 as well, the results were being posted in a little bit more of a wonky way than we were used to seeing because of the different ways people were voting and because of the ways that mail in voting largely skewed Democrat. Like you just said, one of the big stories in the lead up to the election this year has been there's a lot more of an almost even partisan split in who was voting early. Do we have any sense yet how that changes when results come in, when you can see the results, or are we still going to be expecting Pennsylvania and the other important states to be taking several days to count these ballots?

[Miles Parks]

I actually think it's an important distinction to note that when we're thinking about next week, the bigger distinction in terms of how long it takes to know who won a state is going to be less about how long it takes to count the votes and more how close that state is. And so when we're watching a state like Pennsylvania, which might be a razor, razor thin margin, then you start getting into the kind of the wonkiness of how mail ballots are counted there. Wisconsin is another state we're watching because they cannot even start processing absentee ballots until on Election Day. And so, yes, if the margins are very, very close in any of these states, we are going to be waiting for every single one of those votes to be counted until the AP and other news outlets can call the race.

[Scott Detrow]

And it's worth saying here, as we're going to be saying a lot Tuesday on when votes are being posted on a Wednesday or a Thursday or a Friday, they were not votes that were cast on that Wednesday or Thursday or Friday. They were cast before the election. It's just taking long to count them.

[Miles Parks]

Exactly. And I would actually urge people to watch their own place if they live in a non swing state. That's happening everywhere. You will see vote totals shift in the days after the election as they are counting provisional ballots, counting ballots that come in from overseas voters, things like that. It's just that these swing states have so much more scrutiny.

[Scott Detrow]

Let's talk about one more thing here. We've been talking about the political rhetoric, but a lot of the stuff that really matters in terms of the election administration and vote counting is what happens in the courts. And we've already seen a lot of lawsuits in motion. What are they targeting and what are the goals?

[Miles Parks]

So the RNC and the Trump campaign say that this is really just about maintaining safeguards for the election and making sure that, quote, only legal votes are counted. But we're seeing lawsuits about all sorts of things in some states targeting entire voter rolls, saying states aren't doing enough to clean them. In other places, you know, targeting very specific aspects of elections like the way people turn in their mail ballots and whether specific mail ballots should be counted. I think that part of this is not abnormal. You always see kind of election fights in the courtroom leading up to and then after Election Day. What's interesting this cycle, when you talk to election experts, it seems like the Trump campaign and Republicans more broadly are kind of already setting the stage for things, kind of giving breadcrumbs to issues that they might bring up to try to challenge the election results should Trump lose after the election.

[Scott Detrow]

Let's step back. And we've talked a lot about this in different segments and off the air over the last few years because it's a big part of your world. Miles, do we have a sense of how much all these falsehoods are resonating with voters?

[Miles Parks]

It is very unclear. And that's going to be kind of the thing I'm watching most closely over the next couple weeks. We had an NPR PBS Maris poll come out a couple weeks ago that found that the majority of Americans are concerned about voter fraud in this upcoming election. A very ominous message. At the same time, a Pew Research center poll found recently that more than 70% of Americans are confident in how the elections are gonna run. So we're kind of seeing conflicting messaging on this point in terms of confidence. I think one optimistic point that I've noticed across most of the polling on this issue is that people are confident in their local election workers, which at a time when these people are kind of downtrodden, feeling kind of attacked, I think that is a point of optimism.

[Scott Detrow]

That's NPR voting correspondent Miles Parks. Thanks so much.

[Miles Parks]

Thanks, Scott.

[Scott Detrow]

This episode was produced by Tyler Bartlam and edited by Adam Rainey and Benjamin Swayze. Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun. One more thing before you go. You can now enjoy the Consider this newsletter. We help you break down a major story of the day. You'll also get to know our producers and hosts in some moments of joy from the All Things Considered team. You can Sign [e-mail] ConsiderThisNewsletter. It's Consider this from NPR. I'm Scott Detrow.

[NPR Announcer]

The Code Switch team spent Election Day talking to folks about how the outcome might impact them. It's a time capsule of people's hopes and fears before they knew the results.

[Scott Detrow]

One way or another, there's a change coming.

[NPR Announcer]

I wanted to vote for Trump, but.

[Miles Parks]

I voted for her. Gays for Trump.

[NPR Announcer]

I cried this morning. I've been crying on and off. I'm terrified. Listen to Code Switch, the podcast about race and identity, from npr. NPR brings you the updates you need on the day's biggest headlines.

[Scott Detrow]

The Senate narrowly passed the debt ceiling bill that will prevent the country from defaulting on its loans.

[NPR Announcer]

Stories from across the world. Knowing how to forage and to live with the land is integral to anise culture and down your block. From CPR News, this is Colorado Matters and you can find all of that and more in your pocket. Download the NPR app today.