Consider This from NPR: "Tariffs will boost prices a lot — here's how much"
Release Date: April 9, 2025
Host: Ari Shapiro

Introduction to Tariffs and Price Increases

In the April 9, 2025 episode of NPR's Consider This, host Ari Shapiro delves into the economic ramifications of President Donald Trump's recent tariff policies. The episode begins by contrasting Trump's campaign promises with the current economic reality.

Ari Shapiro introduces the topic by recounting a speech Trump gave in August, where he highlighted significant price hikes under the Biden administration:

"[...] Up 46%. Eggs. Wow." [00:16]

Trump vowed to reduce inflation and bring prices down swiftly:

"And we're going to straighten it out. We're going to bring prices way down, and we'll get it, get it done fast." [00:31]

However, Trump's subsequent campaign pledge to impose hefty tariffs contradicts his promise to lower prices, setting the stage for economic turmoil.

Trump's Tariff Policies and Market Turmoil

Trump announced plans for 10-20% tariffs on countries deemed to be "ripping us off." When the details were unveiled, actual tariffs exceeded 20% on several nations, disrupting global markets:

"The reciprocal tariffs, as Trump calls them, clicked into place at midnight." [02:14]

The immediate aftermath saw global stock markets plummet, increased recession fears, and intense criticism from economists and the public. Despite the backlash, Trump remained steadfast, defending his policies at a National Republican Congressional Committee Dinner:

"The shrill voices that you're hearing this week about tariffs are same scoundrels and frauds who never thought twice about when the United States lost 90,000 factories and plants." [01:23]

Price Impact Analysis: A Shopping Cart Approach

To illustrate the tangible effects of these tariffs on consumers, Shapiro collaborates with Martha Gimbel, Executive Director and Co-Founder of the Budget Lab at Yale University, conducting a virtual shopping trip.

Clothing

The first stop is the clothing section, where a plain white T-shirt is projected to increase by approximately 45%:

"That's going to cost you quite a bit more, probably around 45%." [05:04]

Gimbel explains that the heavy tariffs on imports from countries like Vietnam significantly impact clothing prices since the U.S. imports most of its apparel.

Food Staples

In the food section, staple items show varied price changes:

• Sugar: Only a 4% increase due to substantial domestic production.

  "Prices are only going to go up about 4%." [06:09]

• Rice: A steep 27% rise, primarily because much of the rice is imported from Asian countries facing high tariffs.

  "The price of rice is going up by about 27%." [06:50]

Household Items

Household necessities like rubber dish gloves face a 16% price hike:

"About 16%." [07:10]

This increase stems from low domestic rubber production, making the U.S. reliant on imports susceptible to tariffs.

Pharmaceuticals

While pharmaceuticals were initially exempt from tariffs, there are discussions about imposing them, potentially leading to a 15% price increase:

"They are talking about imposing tariffs on pharmaceuticals, and if they do that, we think that prices will rise about 15%." [07:46]

Gas Prices

Gasoline prices currently remain tariff-free and are declining. However, this drop is misleading as it reflects market fears of a recession rather than a genuine decrease in costs:

"The reason they're going down is that markets think we're entering a recession, at which point we'll all start using less gas." [08:14]

Household Budget Implications

Gimbel's Budget Lab estimates that the cumulative effect of these price increases amounts to an average of $4,600 per family annually:

"On average, we're seeing that prices will go up about $4,600 for people per family." [09:12]

This burden disproportionately affects lower-income families, who spend a larger portion of their income on goods susceptible to tariffs. Higher-income households, spending more on services like education and pet care (which are not tariffed), are less impacted.

National Economic Impact

Examining the broader economic consequences, Gimbel highlights that the United States itself is a significant loser in the tariff-induced system. Canada follows as the next biggest casualty, while China, the primary target of the tariffs, fares slightly better than the U.S. Intriguingly, regions like the EU and the UK might experience long-term benefits as global trade dynamics shift:

"The United States loses in terms of its gross domestic product." [10:39]
"You'll see places like the EU or the UK actually do better in the long run as world trade adjusts to the new reality." [10:51]

These changes indicate a retreat from global economic integration, potentially fostering self-reliance at the expense of international collaboration.

Conclusion and Insights

As the episode concludes, Shapiro reflects on the unpredictable nature of tariffs and their enduring impact on the economy:

"Tariffs appear to be winning out. A whole lot of stuff is about to get more expensive." [02:21]

The analysis underscores the complexity of balancing political promises with economic realities, revealing that while tariffs may aim to protect domestic industries, they inadvertently raise consumer costs and strain international relations.

Martha Gimbel summarizes the situation with a touch of sarcasm:

"I hate to laugh, but, you know, this is just a reminder that there is a lot of stuff that we don't produce in the United States." [07:15]

This episode of Consider This provides a comprehensive examination of how Trump's tariff policies are reshaping the economic landscape, affecting everything from individual consumer choices to national GDP.

Produced by Erica Ryan and Connor Donovan with audio engineering by Simon Laszlo Jansen. Edited by Christopher and Talyatta. Executive Producer: Sami Yenigun.