The Long History of Russia's Broken Promises to Ukraine

Introduction

In the March 21, 2025 episode of NPR's Consider This, host Juana Summers delves into the intricate and tumultuous relationship between Russia and Ukraine. The episode, titled "The Long History of Russia's Broken Promises to Ukraine," explores the historical context, key agreements, and the persistent challenges that have hindered lasting peace between the two nations.

Current Ceasefire Efforts

The episode opens with a discussion on the recent efforts to establish a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt optimistically stated at [00:07] that, “We have never been closer to peace than we are today." However, Juana Summers counters this by highlighting the fragility of the situation, noting that the current ceasefire is limited to 30 days and primarily focuses on protecting energy infrastructure.

State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce elaborates on the diplomatic efforts at [00:41], saying, “Everyone now is at a table to get this to the same goal.” Despite these efforts, mutual accusations of violations have already emerged, casting doubt on the ceasefire's durability. Meetings scheduled in Saudi Arabia aim to iron out these discrepancies, but historical mistrust looms large.

A History of Broken Agreements

Serhi Plahy, Director of the Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute, provides an in-depth analysis of the fraught history between Russia and Ukraine. At [04:07], he explains the significance of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, where Ukraine relinquished over 1,500 nuclear warheads in exchange for security assurances from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia. Plahy emphasizes that the lack of enforcement of these assurances became evident when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, undermining Ukraine's territorial integrity.

Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s President, poignantly expressed his frustration at [01:13], stating, “He broke the ceasefire. He killed our people and he didn't exchange prisoners.” This sentiment underscores the deep-seated mistrust Ukraine holds towards Russia’s commitments, compounded by repeated violations of prior agreements.

Minsk Agreements and Their Aftermath

The discussion then shifts to the Minsk Agreements, pivotal attempts to halt the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. After Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, Minsk I was established as an armistice, but it failed to bring lasting peace. As Plahy notes at [07:02], “After Minsk I, Russia resumed military actions in early 2015, leading to Minsk II, which aligned more closely with Russia’s demands rather than Ukraine’s needs.” This pattern of agreeing and then reneging has perpetuated the conflict, making future negotiations highly uncertain.

Eleanor Beardsley's eyewitness account from Donetsk after Minsk I’s implementation vividly illustrates the agreement's collapse. At [06:37], she recounts, “When I wanted to get out of here, Jesus, we're gone,” followed by an immediate act of violence, demonstrating the fragile nature of ceasefires.

Implications for Ukraine’s Future

Plahy discusses Ukraine’s strategic dilemmas stemming from past agreements. At [08:10], he reflects, “There is a belief that giving up nuclear weapons back in 1994 was a major mistake. The nuclear weapons were the real deterrent.” Ukraine's pursuit of NATO membership, often touted by President Zelenskyy, now seems increasingly unattainable, pushing Ukraine to rely heavily on its alliance with the United States. Plahy warns of potential geopolitical shifts, including China’s increasing influence in the post-Soviet space, which could further complicate Ukraine's security landscape.

Public Sentiment and Trust Deficit

The episode also touches upon the Ukrainian public’s sentiment towards international alliances and support. Plahy conveys the collective disappointment felt by Ukrainians, who once viewed the United States as a bastion of democracy and a reliable partner. At [09:56], he states, “There is huge disappointment and cynicism, the realization, okay, you probably there is no one else but yourself to count on.” This erosion of trust highlights the psychological and social toll of prolonged conflict and unmet promises.

Conclusion

Juana Summers wraps up the episode by underscoring the cyclical nature of broken promises between Russia and Ukraine, which continues to hinder peace efforts. The historical grievances, compounded by recent diplomatic setbacks, paint a bleak picture for the prospects of a lasting resolution. As Ukraine grapples with its strategic positioning and the erosion of international trust, the path to peace remains fraught with challenges.

Notable Quotes

• Caroline Levitt ([00:07]): “We have never been closer to peace than we are today.”

• Volodymyr Zelensky ([01:13]): “He broke the ceasefire. He killed our people and he didn't exchange prisoners.”

• Tammy Bruce ([00:41]): “Everyone now is at a table to get this to the same goal.”

• Serhi Plahy ([04:25]): “Once the Soviet Union fell apart, the huge Soviet nuclear arsenal ended up to be stationed on the territory of now four independent states.”

• Eleanor Beardsley ([06:37]): “When I want to get out of here, Jesus, we're gone... So much for the ceasefire.”

• Serhi Plahy ([08:10]): “Ukraine’s alliance with the United States is extremely important. And it’s important for Europe for stopping Russian aggression.”

Production Credits

• Producer: Connor Donovan
• Editor: Courtney Dorning
• Executive Producer: Sammy Yenigun

Support and Sponsorship

While the episode includes sponsorship messages from Saatva and Carvana, these segments are separate from the core content. For an uninterrupted listening experience, consider supporting NPR through Consider This+ as mentioned by the hosts.

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the episode, providing a clear understanding of the historical and current dynamics between Russia and Ukraine for those who haven't listened to the podcast.