The long history of Russia's broken promises to Ukraine

Summary

The Long History of Russia's Broken Promises to Ukraine

Introduction

In the March 21, 2025 episode of NPR's Consider This, host Juana Summers delves into the intricate and tumultuous relationship between Russia and Ukraine. The episode, titled "The Long History of Russia's Broken Promises to Ukraine," explores the historical context, key agreements, and the persistent challenges that have hindered lasting peace between the two nations.

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Current Ceasefire Efforts

The episode opens with a discussion on the recent efforts to establish a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt optimistically stated at [00:07] that, “We have never been closer to peace than we are today." However, Juana Summers counters this by highlighting the fragility of the situation, noting that the current ceasefire is limited to 30 days and primarily focuses on protecting energy infrastructure.

State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce elaborates on the diplomatic efforts at [00:41], saying, “Everyone now is at a table to get this to the same goal.” Despite these efforts, mutual accusations of violations have already emerged, casting doubt on the ceasefire's durability. Meetings scheduled in Saudi Arabia aim to iron out these discrepancies, but historical mistrust looms large.

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A History of Broken Agreements

Serhi Plahy, Director of the Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute, provides an in-depth analysis of the fraught history between Russia and Ukraine. At [04:07], he explains the significance of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, where Ukraine relinquished over 1,500 nuclear warheads in exchange for security assurances from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia. Plahy emphasizes that the lack of enforcement of these assurances became evident when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, undermining Ukraine's territorial integrity.

Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s President, poignantly expressed his frustration at [01:13], stating, “He broke the ceasefire. He killed our people and he didn't exchange prisoners.” This sentiment underscores the deep-seated mistrust Ukraine holds towards Russia’s commitments, compounded by repeated violations of prior agreements.

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Minsk Agreements and Their Aftermath

The discussion then shifts to the Minsk Agreements, pivotal attempts to halt the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. After Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, Minsk I was established as an armistice, but it failed to bring lasting peace. As Plahy notes at [07:02], “After Minsk I, Russia resumed military actions in early 2015, leading to Minsk II, which aligned more closely with Russia’s demands rather than Ukraine’s needs.” This pattern of agreeing and then reneging has perpetuated the conflict, making future negotiations highly uncertain.

Eleanor Beardsley's eyewitness account from Donetsk after Minsk I’s implementation vividly illustrates the agreement's collapse. At [06:37], she recounts, “When I wanted to get out of here, Jesus, we're gone,” followed by an immediate act of violence, demonstrating the fragile nature of ceasefires.

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Implications for Ukraine’s Future

Plahy discusses Ukraine’s strategic dilemmas stemming from past agreements. At [08:10], he reflects, “There is a belief that giving up nuclear weapons back in 1994 was a major mistake. The nuclear weapons were the real deterrent.” Ukraine's pursuit of NATO membership, often touted by President Zelenskyy, now seems increasingly unattainable, pushing Ukraine to rely heavily on its alliance with the United States. Plahy warns of potential geopolitical shifts, including China’s increasing influence in the post-Soviet space, which could further complicate Ukraine's security landscape.

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Public Sentiment and Trust Deficit

The episode also touches upon the Ukrainian public’s sentiment towards international alliances and support. Plahy conveys the collective disappointment felt by Ukrainians, who once viewed the United States as a bastion of democracy and a reliable partner. At [09:56], he states, “There is huge disappointment and cynicism, the realization, okay, you probably there is no one else but yourself to count on.” This erosion of trust highlights the psychological and social toll of prolonged conflict and unmet promises.

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Conclusion

Juana Summers wraps up the episode by underscoring the cyclical nature of broken promises between Russia and Ukraine, which continues to hinder peace efforts. The historical grievances, compounded by recent diplomatic setbacks, paint a bleak picture for the prospects of a lasting resolution. As Ukraine grapples with its strategic positioning and the erosion of international trust, the path to peace remains fraught with challenges.

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Notable Quotes

• Caroline Levitt ([00:07]): “We have never been closer to peace than we are today.”

• Volodymyr Zelensky ([01:13]): “He broke the ceasefire. He killed our people and he didn't exchange prisoners.”

• Tammy Bruce ([00:41]): “Everyone now is at a table to get this to the same goal.”

• Serhi Plahy ([04:25]): “Once the Soviet Union fell apart, the huge Soviet nuclear arsenal ended up to be stationed on the territory of now four independent states.”

• Eleanor Beardsley ([06:37]): “When I want to get out of here, Jesus, we're gone... So much for the ceasefire.”

• Serhi Plahy ([08:10]): “Ukraine’s alliance with the United States is extremely important. And it’s important for Europe for stopping Russian aggression.”

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Production Credits

• Producer: Connor Donovan
• Editor: Courtney Dorning
• Executive Producer: Sammy Yenigun

Support and Sponsorship

While the episode includes sponsorship messages from Saatva and Carvana, these segments are separate from the core content. For an uninterrupted listening experience, consider supporting NPR through Consider This+ as mentioned by the hosts.

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This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the episode, providing a clear understanding of the historical and current dynamics between Russia and Ukraine for those who haven't listened to the podcast.

Transcript

[Juana Summers]

Here's what White House press Secretary Caroline Levitt says about prospects for an end to the war in Ukraine.

[Caroline Levitt]

We have never been closer to peace than we are today.

[Juana Summers]

That may be true, but the current situation is still a very long way from a lasting peace. This week, the presidents of Ukraine and Russia agreed in separate phone calls with President Trump to a limited 30 day ceasefire. The exact details are in dispute, but it would at least cover attacks on energy infrastructure like power plants. Both sides are already accusing one another of violating the agreement. Meetings are scheduled for Monday in Saudi Arabia. To work out the details, here's State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce on Wednesday.

[Tammy Bruce]

Everyone now is at a table to get this to the same goal.

[Juana Summers]

That's a metaphorical table in this case because Ukrainian and Russian officials will be in separate rooms with the US Acting as a go between all this for a partial one month ceasefire. One of the biggest things working against an agreement to end the war is what happened after Ukraine's last agreement with Russia's President Vladimir Putin and the ones before that. There is a long history of broken promises.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

In 2019, I signed with him the deal.

[Juana Summers]

Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, brought up that history in the Oval Office last month. It's what prompted the pushback From Vice President J.D. vance and the argument that ultimately ended the meeting.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

He broken the cease file. He killed our people and he didn't exchange prisoners. We signed the exchange of prisoners, but he didn't do it. What kind of diplomacy, J.D. you are speaking about? What do you mean?

[Juana Summers]

Consider this. Ukraine says it won't trust a promise from Russia. It needs security guarantees. To understand why, you've got to go back to the birth of independent Ukraine. From npr, I'm Juana Summers.

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[Juana Summers]

On August 24, 1991, as the Soviet Union was crumbling, Ukraine declared its independence.

[Kyrylo Stetsenko]

We are happy to feel our life without Moscow, without Russia.

[Juana Summers]

Kyrylo Stetsenko, a Ukrainian in Kyiv, spoke to NPR about it a few days later.

[Kyrylo Stetsenko]

We can't believe in this Ukraine struggle for independence many hundred years and now that is real.

[Juana Summers]

But almost immediately, Ukrainians worried about Russia trying to claim parts of their country, and their fear was justified.

[Serhi Plahy]

Within a few short days after that, a spokesperson for President of the Russian Federation, Boris Yeltsin, made a claim for Ukrainian territory.

[Juana Summers]

Serhi Plahy is a historian at Harvard University.

[Serhi Plahy]

And when reporters asked him what borders he had in mind, he he referred to the Crimea and Donbass. So that was the first case when the new democratic Russian leadership put in question the borders between Russia and Ukraine.

[Juana Summers]

I wanted to talk to him about the long history of broken agreements between Ukraine and Russia that haunts the current peace negotiations. About the reason Ukraine won't trust Russian promises. He says a lot of it goes back to an agreement from 1994 called the Budapest Memorandum.

[Serhi Plahy]

So once the Soviet Union fell apart, the huge Soviet nuclear arsenal ended up to be stationed on the territory of now four independent states. And Ukraine inherited the biggest chunk of that aside from Russia. So what happened in Budapest in 1994, and at that time the President of the United States was Bill Clinton, was that Ukraine and other states that inherited Soviet nuclear arsenal were provided with assurances for their territorial integrity and for their security in exchange for turning the nuclear weapons to Russia. These include 176 intercontinental ballistic missiles and.

[Unnamed Saatva spokesperson]

Some 1,500 warheads targeted at the United States.

[Serhi Plahy]

So Ukrainians were extremely concerned at that time. The nuclear weapons was the only deterrent that they had against Russia. That was happening at the time when conflict was still going on over what will happen to the Crimea. So Russia was making claims for Ukrainian territory. So Ukraine found itself in impossible situation and had to agree to the deal.

[Juana Summers]

And of course, we know that that agreement, the Budapest Memorandum, did not end up protecting Ukraine. In 2014, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, part of Ukraine, which brings to another Russia Ukraine deal, the Minsk Agreements. Tell us what those laid out.

[Serhi Plahy]

The annexation of the Crimea in The spring of 2014 really became an opening stage for the war between Russia and Ukraine, because the next move that Russia did, they were trying also to annex the eastern part of Ukraine, called Donbass. A few weeks after the fighting, the first Minsk Agreements were reached, which was a sort of the armistice at that time.

[Juana Summers]

I want to play for you, if I can, another piece of tape. My colleague Eleanor Beardsley was in Donetsk in Ukraine just 10 days after Minsk won that first Minsk agreement. Let's listen.

[Eleanor Beardsley]

Barely had we gotten out of the car to take a look. When I want to get out of here, Jesus, we're gone.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Oh God.

[Eleanor Beardsley]

Everyone scrambles and jumps back in their cars, but our driver seems frozen. And then a second blast rocks our car. So much for the ceasefire.

[Serhi Plahy]

Well, what you can certainly hear in the background, it's the actual war is going on. And we are talking about Minsk 1 and Minsk 2. Because what happened was after Minsk 1, Russia decided that it was not really satisfied with the amount of territory that it had and the conditions that it imposed on Ukraine. So they resumed the war, the military action in early 2015 and then led to Minsk2, which was more in alliance with their original plans. So we have this story of armistices agreements, peace agreements or truce that was signed and violated again and again by the Russian Federation once it decided that it was in a position to impose more favorable conditions, more favorable for Russia, but less favorable conditions for Ukraine. People are concerned that that will can happen again.

[Juana Summers]

What lessons do you think Ukraine takes away from this history of broken promises as they are potentially heading towards another agreement with Russia?

[Serhi Plahy]

One thing is that there is a belief that giving up nuclear weapons back in 1994 was a major mistake. That Russia is treated the way it is treated, not because it is somehow economic powerhouse, but mostly it is treated that way because it is a nuclear superpower. So the nuclear weapons is the real deterrent. The solution for Ukraine was perceived for a long period of time, was viewed in membership in NATO. That's why President Zelenskyy was keeping talking about NATO again and again and again. Now it doesn't look this is possible at all. So for, for Zelensky, for Ukraine, the alliance, continuing alliance with the United States is extremely important. And it's it. That alliance is extremely important also for Europe for stopping Russian aggression. And it is important for the United States of America. Because if US lives, the vacuum will be filled. And it's not given that the alliance that Ukraine will sign will be necessarily with Europe, it can be China as well. China is already present in the post Soviet space providing security guarantees to Kazakhstan against Russia. So that's another possibility that China is ready to move in.

[Juana Summers]

Ukraine is now in a position of negotiating with the same two countries that left it without its nuclear deterrent 30 years ago. I'm talking of course about the US and Russia. We've talked so much about the geopolitics of the situation. But I want to ask you about the people if you can say, how do people in Ukraine feel about being back in this position again decades later?

[Serhi Plahy]

Well, there is a huge, there is a huge concern and huge disappointment. And the United States was perceived, despite Budapest memorandum for all those decades as really a flag bearer of democracy and of the just, of just peace. There was belief that there was also level of democratic solidarity in the world that people in Ukraine now realize that it is not there. At least it is not that level. It is not on the level that they believed it was. So, yeah, huge, huge disappointment, cynicism, the realization, okay, you probably there is no one else but yourself to count on.

[Juana Summers]

We have been speaking with Serhi Plahy. He's director of the Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute. Thank you so much.

[Serhi Plahy]

You're most welcome. Thank you.

[Juana Summers]

This episode was produced by Connor Donovan. It was edited by Courtney Dorning. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigun. Before we go, a word of thanks to our Consider this Plus listeners whose support makes this show possible. Supporters also hear every episode without messages from sponsors. If that's not you, it could be. To learn more, visit plus.NPR.org It's Consider this from NPR. I'm Juana Summers.

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