The Strait of Hormuz could open soon. But will it be safe for ships?

Summary

---

Consider This from NPR

Episode: "The Strait of Hormuz Could Open Soon. But Will It Be Safe for Ships?"

Date: June 16, 2026
Host: Ailsa Chang
Featured Guest: Jacob Larson, Chief Safety and Security Officer, BIMCO

---

Episode Overview

In this episode, NPR's Ailsa Chang examines the impending reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after four months of near-total closure due to the Iran war. The focus: While a US-Iran agreement promises to formally end the conflict and lift blockades, will the busy shipping channel be truly safe for vessels—especially oil tankers—to resume operations? Chang analyzes economic implications, security risks, and the future of international shipping in conversation with Jacob Larson of BIMCO.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Background: Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters

• Prior to the war, about 20% of the world’s oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
• The conflict led to blockades by both Iran and the US, causing a major bottleneck, spiking oil prices, and accelerating global inflation.
• A memorandum of understanding is set to be signed between the US and Iran in Switzerland, aiming to reopen the strait and end hostilities.
  • President Trump (00:19): "the oil is plummeting down and the stock market is shooting up like a rocket."

2. Persistent Safety Concerns

• Admiral James Stock (Ret.) highlights the dangers of sea mines, even after peace is declared.

  • Admiral James Stock (01:24): "If I'm the master… I'm not enthusiastic about having the honor of leading the first convoy… someone has to clear those mines."

• Jacob Larson of BIMCO emphasizes:

  • The risk environment remains essentially unchanged as of the episode’s recording.
  • Both sides continue to enforce blockades and the precise mine threat is unclear.
  • Naval forces must ensure the area is free of mines—this process could take weeks or months.
  • Jacob Larson (03:57): "That's quite unlikely… The situation is basically unchanged compared to just before this deal was announced last Friday."
  • Jacob Larson (04:32): "If, as expected, they have laid mines… it could well take some few weeks or even a few months before the mine threat has been completely neutralized."

3. What Would Give Shipping Companies Confidence?

• Shipping operators need:
  • Credible, joint assurances from both the US and Iran that routes are safe and hostilities won’t resume.
  • Not just unilateral statements, but verifiable safety and the cessation of any military threats.
  • Jacob Larson (05:17): "What we need is assurances from both sides of the conflict that a given route is safe to navigate… with that, shipping will gradually start to pick up… But that doesn't mean that everything is hunky-dory… there are still lots of unanswered questions."

4. Debate Over Potential Tolls and International Law

• President Trump announced the Strait would be permanently toll-free.
• Iran states no tolls (“fees”) will be levied either.
• Legality: According to international law, particularly the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the Strait is an international waterway, and imposing fees is not permitted.
  • Jacob Larson (06:16): "No, they didn't… the Strait of Hormuz is an international strait and in accordance with international conventions, these have freedom of navigation… fees are, you know, not part of international law."
  • Ailsa Chang (06:36): "Right, there's some debate about whether fees would even be legal right under international law."
  • Jacob Larson (06:40): "Exactly."

5. The War’s Lasting Impact on Global Shipping

• There is concern that the conflict has dealt a long-term blow to the perceived reliability of the Strait of Hormuz for global shipping.
• Oil-producing nations are likely considering alternative routes (e.g., pipelines).
• The rules-based international order’s fragility and shipping’s dependency on political stability are highlighted.
  • Jacob Larson (07:04): "There is some concern, obviously, and shipping industry is a firm supporter of international conventions because it's really the bedrock of free and international and effective trade… but we also have hopes that common sense will prevail."
  • On future of the strait:
    • Jacob Larson (07:48): "Iran now has demonstrated that they are able to virtually close the straits. So I think a lot of… oil producing countries… are looking to alternatives and that could, for example, be pipelines. Now, whether that will materialize or not, I think time will show."

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• President Trump (00:19): "A lot of great things are going to happen in the Middle East right now, and very importantly, the oil is plummeting down and the stock market is shooting up like a rocket."
• Admiral James Stock (01:24): "I’m not enthusiastic about having the honor of leading the first convoy through the strait."
• Jacob Larson (03:57): "That's quite unlikely. The situation is basically unchanged…"
• Jacob Larson (05:17): "We need credible assurances from both sides… Once that is in place… then we will see ships start to move."
• Jacob Larson (06:16): "The Strait of Hormuz is an international strait… fees are, you know, not part of international law."
• Jacob Larson (07:48): "Iran now has demonstrated that they are able to virtually close the straits… oil producing countries… are looking to alternatives…"

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:00-01:41 — Setting the stage: War’s effect on global oil, economic fallout, and Trump’s optimism
• 01:41-02:56 — Safety risks: Sea mines and initial shipping hesitancy
• 03:23-07:48 — Interview with Jacob Larson:
  • Current status and realistic timeline for safe passage
  • The mine clearance challenge
  • What assurances shippers need
  • Legalities of tolls/fees in the Strait
  • Broader implications for global shipping and alternative strategies
• 07:48-08:08 — Looking ahead: Industry’s search for alternatives, the shadow cast by the blockade

---

Summary

This episode breaks down the urgent questions facing global commerce as the US and Iran move toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. While political leaders tout imminent "normalization," shipping experts voice serious doubts about immediate safety, citing ongoing blockades, potential sea mines, and the lasting impact of conflict on the rules-based order of international trade. The episode delivers a real-time snapshot of maritime anxiety and leaves listeners with a sobering understanding: Peace deals on paper may take far longer to translate into real security on the water.

---

Transcript

[Ailsa Chang]

It's consider this where every day we go deep on one big news story today. What will it take for oil to start flowing again? President Trump and Iran say an agreement has been reached to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It is said to be formally signed on Friday in Switzerland.

[President Trump]

I think a lot of great things are going to happen in the Middle east right now, and very importantly, the oil is plummeting down and the stock market is shooting up like a rocket.

[Ailsa Chang]

That was President Trump speaking at the G7 meeting on Monday. The ongoing Iran war has sent oil prices soaring and has exacerbated inflation in the US A lot of that economic pressure is from the near total closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the war began almost four months ago.

[President Trump]

The Iran deal that we made is going to bring a lot of a lot of success to the world because the oil was really clogged up there for a while.

[Ailsa Chang]

Before the war, roughly a fifth of the world's oil traveled through the Strait of Hormuz. Now the traffic is way below that, in part because of blockades put in place by Iran and the U.S. but even if a deal ends those blockades, there's another major issue, safety. One major risk is the possibility of sea mines. Here's retired US Navy Admiral James Stock on CNN in April.

[Retired US Navy Admiral James Stock]

If I'm the master, the captain of a big 200,000 ton oil tanker, I'm not enthusiastic about having the honor of leading the first convoy through the strait. When this thing gets cleared up, someone has to clear those mines.

[Ailsa Chang]

Consider this. Even with an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, it may take a while for activity to pick up in that crucial waterway. What will it take for shipping companies to feel safe? After the break, we'll hear from the chief safety and security officer of a major shipping association. From npr, I'm Ailsa Chang.

[NPR Sponsor Announcer (Carvana)]

This message comes from NPR sponsor Carvana. Carvana believes selling your car should be refreshingly simple. Enter your license plate or vin, get a real offer down to the penny, and schedule a pickup on your time. Then, no surprises. Sell your car [e-mail] Pickup fees may apply.

[Planet Money Narrator]

Each story you hear on Planet Money starts with a question. What happens if we refund tariffs? Why are groceries so expensive? At NPR, we stand for your right to be curious because the forces shaping our world can be hard to see. Follow NPR's Planet Money wherever you get your podcasts and and start seeing how the economy really works.

[Ailsa Chang]

It's consider this from NPR with the U.S. and Iran set to sign a memorandum of understanding on Friday. There is renewed hope that shipping traffic will move freely through the Strait of Hormuz once again.

[President Trump]

As you know, they're doing a little hunting for a couple of mines that they've already found. But it's essentially ships are starting to go out now. On Friday, it'll be completely opened.

[Ailsa Chang]

As we keep hearing during the course of this war with Iran, the strait is a critical shipping channel, especially for oil and fertilizer. And so we turn now to Jacob Larson. He's chief safety and security officer for bimco, the international shipping association. Welcome to All Things Considered.

[Jacob Larson]

Thanks a lot. Nice to be here.

[Ailsa Chang]

Nice to have you. Okay, so as we just heard, President Trump expects the strait to be completely opened again in just a few days. But based on what you know, do you think ships will be able to pass quite safely through by then?

[Jacob Larson]

No, I think on the face of it, that's. That's quite unlikely. The situation is basically unchanged compared to just before this year. Deal was announced last Friday. So ships are still waiting inside the Persian Gulf. Both the US And Iran are still enforcing their respective blockades in the Straits of Hormuz and surrounding waters. And it's very difficult and very risky for ships to move through the Strait currently.

[Ailsa Chang]

What about the issue of mines? Because there's a question about whether Iran laid any mines in the strait during this war. What is your sense of that?

[Jacob Larson]

It's very difficult for me to assess whether they actually laid mines or not. So we are getting the hands of the naval forces there. If, as expected, they have laid binds, then the whole central part of the strait, Hormuz, is considered a mine danger area and will be risky to go through. But we are a little bit in the hands of the military here. We don't have any accurate information ourselves regarding the mine threat, but from the looks of it, it could well take some few weeks or even a few months before the mine threat has been completely neutralized.

[Ailsa Chang]

What will it take for operators to feel confident that it is safe to sail through the Strait? What kind of information do you need?

[Jacob Larson]

What we need is assurances from both sides of the conflict that a given route is safe to navigate. And with that, I think shipping will gradually start to pick up. And, of course, we need assurances also that hostilities will not be reopened. And that requires more than just unilateral statements. We need credible assurances from both sides, and once that is in place, and that they assure us that the route they declare open is actually Safe to use, then we will see ships start to move. But that doesn't mean that everything is hunky dory because there are still lots of unanswered questions.

[Ailsa Chang]

Well, one unanswered question is this question of fees. Right. President Trump has declared the strait will be permanently toll free, but Iran has said that no tolls will be levied. Will be so called fees. Did shipping companies pay fees to Iran prior to this war?

[Jacob Larson]

No, they didn't. Strait of Hormuz is an international straits and in accordance with international conventions, these have freedom of navigation. So all ships can, can sail in and out as long as they do it in a, in a proper and safe way. And therefore fees are, you know, not part of international law. And it would.

[Ailsa Chang]

Right, there's some debate about whether fees would even be legal right under international law.

[Jacob Larson]

Exactly.

[Ailsa Chang]

Yeah.

[Jacob Larson]

Yeah, exactly. And international law has, you know, that freedom of navigation concept which is so broadly described in the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas, and that doesn't include anything about fees. And Strait of Hormuz is considered an international strait.

[Ailsa Chang]

Yeah. Well, then how concerned are you that the flow of goods through the Strait of Hormuz will be permanently changed as a result of this war?

[Jacob Larson]

I mean, it's obviously concern also given that the international routes based order seems to be under a lot of pressure these recent months. So there is some concern obviously, and shipping industry is a firm support of, of international conventions because it's really the bedrock of free and international and effective trade, which, you know, at as low a cost as possible. So therefore we are concerned, but we also have hopes that common sense will prevail and that we can return to.

[Ailsa Chang]

Can I ask though, going forward, will she. Do shipping companies ever feel like they can rely on the Strait of Hormuz again or in the same way? I mean, has this whole experience convinced you that maybe it's time to invest in alternative routes?

[Jacob Larson]

I think the shipping industry is of course, really concerned with the, the fact that Iran now has demonstrated that they are able to virtually close the straits. So I think a lot of, especially the oil producing countries, they are looking to alternatives and that could, for example, be pipelines. Now, whether that will materialize or not, I think time will show.

[Ailsa Chang]

Jacob Larson, chief safety and security officer for Bimco, thank you very much.

[NPR Sponsor Announcer (Carvana)]

Thank you.

[Ailsa Chang]

This episode was produced by Erica Ryan and Chris Harlan Dunaway. It was edited by Sarah Handel and Tinbit Ermias. Our interim executive producer is Courtney Dorning. It's consider this from NPR. I'm Ilsa Chang.

[NPR Sponsor Announcer (HomeServe)]

This message comes from HomeServe. A a burst pipe, a dead water heater, the AC calling it quits. Who do you call? HomeServe is an easy way to handle unexpected home repairs with plans covering stuff basic homeowners insurance usually won't. Instead of scrambling for a contractor, you make one call to get the repair process started. Join the millions of customers who trust HomeServe right now. Go to HomeServe.com podcast for 50% less your first year savings compared to renewal price void in Florida.

[NPR News Now Announcer]

For instant clarity on world events in just five minutes, listen to NPR News. Now. New episodes drop every hour with the latest on US Politics, international news, the economy, health, science, technology, and more. Five minutes is all it takes to get fully caught up with NPR News. Now listen on the NPR app or wherever you get podcasts.