The Trump administration is changing student loans. Will it affect what people study?

Summary

Podcast Summary: Consider This from NPR

Episode: The Trump administration is changing student loans. Will it affect what people study?
Date: July 10, 2026
Host: Scott Detrow (with Juana Summers, Cory Turner, Tiffany Camheim)
Main Theme:
This episode explores the sweeping changes being made to the U.S. federal student loan system by the Trump administration. It focuses on the new "do no harm" earnings test, which ties federal loan eligibility to graduates’ earnings, and examines the consequences this may have for both students and higher education, especially for certain fields of study.

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1. Overview of the Episode’s Main Theme

• The Department of Education, under the Trump administration, is rolling out a new rule: college programs must prove their graduates earn more than typical high school grads, or else students lose access to federal student loans for that program.
• The episode digs into how these changes work, who will be affected, and whether this could change the types of majors students pursue.
• Through expert interviews, real stories, and data analysis, the hosts explore both intended impacts (improved accountability) and unintended ones (risk to less lucrative fields like arts and mental health services).

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2. Key Discussion Points and Insights

A. The "Do No Harm" Federal Earnings Test (02:26)

• Core Idea:
  If program graduates don’t earn more than non-college peers four years after graduating, the program fails the test.

• Mechanics:

  • Applies to both undergrad and grad programs, comparing grads’ earnings to the next education level down.
  • Two years of failure in a three-year period means loss of access to federal student loans for the program.

  “Their students four years after they graduate are going to need to earn more than working high school grads who did not go to college.”
  — Cory Turner (03:07)

  “If a program can’t show that it leaves its graduates financially better off than if they had never enrolled, it should not be underwritten by federal taxpayers.”
  — Nicholas Kent, Under Secretary of Education [quoted by Cory Turner] (03:30)

B. Which Programs Are at Risk? (04:27)

• Impact by Numbers:

  • Over 800,000 students are in programs likely to fail the test.
  • About half of these students attend private for-profit schools, which already have poor reputations.
  • Undergraduate certificate programs (e.g., cosmetology) are particularly affected, with the majority failing the threshold.

  “The program with the highest predicted failure rate is an undergrad certificate in cosmetology, with more than 90% of all of those programs leaving their students worse off.”
  — Cory Turner (05:17)

• Traditional Programs:

  • Only ~1% of bachelor's programs, but 4% of master’s, are likely to fail.
  • Master's programs in mental and social health services & bachelor’s in fine arts, theater, music are more likely to fall below the earnings bar.

  "At the master's level, we’re talking about mental and social health services. And then at the four year bachelor's degree level, it's programs focused on theater, fine arts, music."
  — Cory Turner (05:40)

C. Broader Implications for Higher Education (06:03)

• Could students be pushed away from arts, social work, and similar fields?
• Raises fundamental questions about what higher education is for—just earnings, or more?

D. Real-Life Example: Music Education & Student Debt

Story: Cindy Flores, Oregon Music Teacher (06:50–09:23)

• Background:
  Cindy, a Mexican American, began teaching mariachi in the Salem Keizer School District after earning a music degree at PSU (financed by federal loans), followed by a teaching license.

• Debt:
  $55,000. She considers it worth it for the chance to teach and serve her community.

• Risk:
  Under the new rule, students like her may not have access to loans if their program’s graduates don’t earn more than high school grads.

• Insight:
  Many pursue music education for reasons beyond money.

  "If it wasn’t for PSU and the loans I could get, I wouldn’t be a Mexican American mariachi teacher for my Mexican American students."
  — Cindy Flores (07:39)

  “But do students really go to music school to make money?”
  — Tiffany Camheim (07:47)

E. Criticisms of the Earnings Metric

• Leanne Scotto Adams (Strategic National Arts Alumni Project):

  • Argues that student success is about more than earnings—community impact and creative contributions matter too.
  • Early-career incomes often understate eventual payoff for arts graduates.

  “These are all metrics that fall outside of just straightforward earnings metrics.”
  — Leanne Scotto Adams (08:28)

  • The four-year post-grad window may be too short to gauge true career progression, especially for creative/arts grads.

F. Other Limitations: Ignoring Student Debt Amounts (10:02)

• The formula doesn't factor in loan debt—so someone with low income and low debt isn't flagged the same as someone with low income and high debt.

• Cory Turner suggests including debt would expose more "bad deals," especially at expensive, prestigious schools.

  “There’s a huge difference... between a graduate struggling with low pay and being debt free and a graduate struggling with low pay and also paying off fifty or sixty thousand dollars in debt.”
  — Cory Turner (10:06)

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3. Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• “We hear calls for accountability and more local control. That's our goal, to give parents access to the quality education their kids deserve, to fix the broken higher education industry that has misled students into degrees that don't pay off.”
  — Linda McMahon, Education Secretary (00:22)

• “Is there anything else that you think this new rule misses?”
  — Juana Summers (09:39)

• “It is never about the money. I realized I wanted to have a career in music when I was in the eighth grade... I want to be part of that community and to be that kind of role model for her own students.”
  — Cindy Flores (09:13, 09:23)

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4. Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:22 — Linda McMahon's testimony outlining the accountability rationale
• 02:26 — Introduction of the "do no harm" earnings test
• 03:07 — Cory Turner explains how the test will work
• 04:27 — Data on at-risk programs (private for-profit, certificates, cosmetology)
• 05:34 — Discussion of traditional BA/MA programs and at-risk fields
• 06:50–09:23 — Cindy Flores’s story: the human side of music education and debt
• 08:08 — Leanne Scotto Adams critiques the earnings-only metric
• 10:02 — Cory Turner on the rule’s failure to consider actual student debt owed

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5. Conclusion: Takeaways for Listeners

• The "do no harm" rule aims to protect students and taxpayers from poor educational investments, but may inadvertently discourage pursuit of careers not focused on high earnings.
• The policy could limit loan access for students in critical yet lower-paid fields, like the arts and social work, affecting both students’ lives and the cultural landscape.
• Experts warn against a narrow focus on short-term earnings, advocating for a broader view of the value of higher education.

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For further information:

• Listen to the full episode via NPR’s Consider This feed.
• More details and data are available at U.S. Department of Education resources cited throughout the episode.

Transcript

[Scott Detrow]

It's consider this, where every day we go deep on one big news story today, the ever shifting landscape of student loans. This month has seen a lot of changes to how the federal government handles student loans. They include how much students are able to borrow. Now the government is assessing loans through a test based on how much money students make after graduating.

[Linda McMahon]

We hear calls for accountability and more local control. That's our goal, to give parents access to the quality education their kids deserve, to fix the broken higher education industry that has misled students into degrees that don't pay off.

[Scott Detrow]

Here's Education Secretary Linda McMahon testifying before a House committee last June.

[Linda McMahon]

When these colleges and universities set their fees of attendance, et cetera, and loans are gotten relative to that, those students who are applying for those loans are expecting to get a return on that investment and those parents who are backing that.

[Scott Detrow]

McMahon wants to test that return on investment idea. Consider this. The Trump administration is drastically changing the student loan landscape. Will it affect the types of professions people choose to enter? From NPR, I'm Scott Detrow.

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[Cory Turner]

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[Scott Detrow]

It's consider this from NPR. The U.S. department of Education is rolling out a new federal test, one that most colleges and universities will eventually have to pass. The test is known as do no harm. And it's pretty simple. If a program's graduates don't earn more than someone who never went to college, that program and its students could lose access to federal student loans. My co host Juana Summers spoke with NPR education correspondent Corey Turner to break down how this all works and the effects it might have.

[Juana Summers]

So Corey, losing Access to federal student loans sounds like a really big deal. So tell us how exactly this do no harm test is gonna work.

[Cory Turner]

Yeah, so this new test, it comes courtesy of Republicans, one big beautiful bill act from last year. And I mean, really, as you said in the intro, it's pretty straightforward for undergraduate programs. Their students four years after they graduate are going to need to earn more than working high school grads who did not go to college. And it's a pretty similar test for graduate schools. Right. So a program's graduates need to earn more on average than those who finished college but did not go on to grad school. If a program dips below this earnings threshold for two years out of three, then students will no longer be able to take out federal loans to attend the that program. Earlier this week, the Under Secretary of Education, Nicholas Kent, said of this change, quote, if a program can't show that it leaves its graduates financially better off than if they had never enrolled, it should not be underwritten by federal taxpayers. I have also heard, though, Juana, from lots of folks, really a bipartisan collection of folks across higher ed who say, look, this is a pretty reasonable expectation. Here's Chris Medeo with the nonprofit Institute for College Access and Success. I mean, this is really a very low floor, right? I mean, high school earnings is not a exceedingly high metric for a program to meet.

[Juana Summers]

And Cory, what can you tell us about the types of programs that might not be able to pass this new test?

[Cory Turner]

Well, fortunately, earlier this year, the U.S. department of Education released a trove of data that give us a pretty good idea of where the hammer is going to be dropping. Broadly speaking, the data show that more than 800,000 students attend a program that would likely fail this do no harm test. We also know roughly half of them attend private for profit schools, which already have a reputation for short changing students.

[Juana Summers]

Right.

[Cory Turner]

One more really big red flag in the department's data. Undergraduate certificate programs. You know, the kind that build themselves as a, like a short term fast track into a specific career. Well, a quarter of all of those students in those programs are in one that would likely fail. And the program with the highest predicted failure rate is an undergrad certificate in cosmetology, with more than 90% of all of those programs leaving their students worse off.

[Juana Summers]

Oh, interesting. I'm really curious though, about more traditional bachelor's and master's programs. How might they fare?

[Scott Detrow]

Really?

[Cory Turner]

Well, according to the department's data, only about 1% of bachelor's degree programs would fail the test. And it's a Bit higher for Master's degrees, about 4%, but still not bad. There are, though, some interesting patterns in the kinds of programs that fail more often. At the master's level, we're talking about mental and social health services. And then at the four year bachelor's degree level, its programs focused on theater, fine arts, music.

[Juana Summers]

I mean, I could imagine that some people might stop studying subjects like the ones you just mentioned because of this rule, as well as a lack of access to student loans, which, I mean, that kind of calls into question what higher education is supposed to be all about.

[Cory Turner]

Totally. I. This is what I find so fascinating about this whole idea. Wanted. Like, do these numbers mean that these programs are bad? In some cases, yes. But in some cases, I think it also means that the US Economy just doesn't value the arts. So we're actually going to poke at this for a few more minutes with a colleague of mine. Her name is Tiffany Camheim. She's an education reporter with Oregon Public Broadcasting. And she has the story of a young teacher who graduated from a music program that would likely fail the government's new earnings test. Let's take a listen.

[Tiffany Camheim]

1, 2, 3. 1.

[Narrator/Reporter (Tiffany Camheim)]

Cindy Flores loves teaching mariachi music to middle and high school students in Oregon's Salem Keizer School District.

[Tiffany Camheim]

Their part goes like this. 2, 3. Beep, 2, 3.

[Narrator/Reporter (Tiffany Camheim)]

To get this dream job, she first had to study music at Portland State University and then get a teaching license. She took out federal. Federal student loans to pay for it all.

[Tiffany Camheim]

I don't know. I feel like there's. There's good side to it, really bad side to it. The good side is I was able to complete my degree. Like, that was the whole reason why I wanted to go to college was so I can get a music degree.

[Narrator/Reporter (Tiffany Camheim)]

The bad side was that by the time she got her license, she was $55,000 in debt. Still, she says it was worth it.

[Tiffany Camheim]

You know, it's. If it wasn't for PSU and the loans I could get, I wouldn't be a Mexican American mariachi teacher for my Mexican American students.

[Narrator/Reporter (Tiffany Camheim)]

But future music students at PSU might not have the same access to federal financial aid. That's because the school's undergraduate music students often don't earn as much as high school grads. Education department data shows the university's program would likely fail the new federal earnings test. But do students really go to music school to make money?

[Leanne Scotto Adams]

And earnings is only a small piece of that puzzle.

[Narrator/Reporter (Tiffany Camheim)]

Leanne Scotto Adams heads the Strategic National Arts Alumni Project, the nonprofit studies what happens to art graduates? And Adams has a problem with this new federal earnings test. She says it's a one size fits all measure of student success.

[Leanne Scotto Adams]

Yes, you need to make money and earn money to make a living to survive. But we see our creative workers, they want to make an impact culturally. They want to make an impact on their community. These are all metrics that fall outside of just straightforward earnings metrics.

[Narrator/Reporter (Tiffany Camheim)]

Adams also takes issue with measuring earnings four years after graduation. She points to survey data that shows arts graduates often have unpredictable incomes at first, but their pay tends to stabilize and increase over time. Back in Oregon, Cindy Flores feels lucky to have full time work teaching music.

[Juana Summers]

You get it.

[Linda McMahon]

I get it.

[Tiffany Camheim]

It's easy. We're gonna play it this way.

[Narrator/Reporter (Tiffany Camheim)]

That's in spite of all her student loan debt.

[Linda McMahon]

Ugh.

[Tiffany Camheim]

It is never about the money. I realized I wanted to have a career in music when I was in the eighth grade because every music teacher I've had in the past was such good role models in my life. And I want to be part of

[Narrator/Reporter (Tiffany Camheim)]

that community and to be that kind of role model for her own students. For NPR News, I'm Tiffany Camhigh in Salem, Oregon.

[Tiffany Camheim]

Oh 1, 2, 3 1.

[Juana Summers]

And NPR's Cory Turner is still with me here in the studio. And Corey, as we just heard in that reporting, there's not a simple formula to calculate a career's worth. And as you pointed out earlier, this do no harm provision, it's not a particularly high bar, but it doesn't take into account what we heard from Cindy Flores that she's wanted to do this and she was in eighth grade, that she's passionate about teaching kids music. Is there anything else that you think this new rule misses?

[Cory Turner]

Yeah, I think there's one big wild card that's not in the formula and that is student loan debt. There was a lot of debate about whether debt should be included in this new test. They decided against it. But, you know, there's a huge difference, using music as an example, between a graduate struggling with low pay and being debt free and a graduate struggling with low pay and also paying off 50 or 60 thousand dollars in debt. And I wonder if they had included this in the formula, you know, how many more programs out there, especially at more prestigious, expensive schools, would start to look like a bad deal.

[Juana Summers]

NPR education correspondent Cory Turner, thanks.

[Cory Turner]

You're welcome.

[Scott Detrow]

This episode was produced by Jeffrey Pierre Zephyr Weinreich and Karen Zamora with audio engineering by Ted Mebane. Our director is Jonas Adams. It was edited by Nicole Cohen, William Troup and Tinbit Ermias. Our interim executive producer is Courtney Dorning. Thank you to our Consider this Plus listeners who support the work of NPR journalists and help keep public radio strong. Supporters also hear every episode without messages from sponsors and unlock bonus episodes of Consider this. You can Learn more at plus.NPR.org. It's Consider this from npr. I'm Scott Detrow.

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