The U.S. birth rate is falling fast. Why? It's complicated

Summary

Consider This from NPR: "The U.S. Birth Rate is Falling Fast. Why? It's Complicated"

Release Date: July 8, 2025

In this insightful episode of NPR's "Consider This," hosts delve into the rapidly declining birth rate in the United States, exploring the multifaceted reasons behind this trend and its far-reaching implications. Through statistical analysis, personal narratives, and political discourse, the episode paints a comprehensive picture of a demographic shift that could reshape American society.

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1. Understanding the Decline: Total Fertility Rate

Ari Shapiro opens the discussion by introducing the concept of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), a critical metric that measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime. To maintain a stable population without growth or decline, a TFR of 2.1 is required—a figure that accounts for replacing both parents and balancing mortality rates.

"At 1.6, South Korea is at 0.7. There's just, relatively speaking, no children being born in South Korea."
— Ari Shapiro [00:00]

Shapiro cites Philip Levine from Wellesley College, who notes that the TFR has been declining across high-income countries, including the U.S., where it stands at 1.6. This decline raises concerns about population stability and the potential societal transformations that could ensue if the trend continues unchecked.

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2. Personal Narratives: The Martinez Family

To humanize the statistics, Shapiro introduces listeners to Lucelli Martinez and her husband, Byron, a couple in their mid-thirties residing near New York City. They share their personal decision to have only one child, a choice influenced by past pregnancy complications and financial considerations.

"Lucelli says having more children often seemed unaffordable."
— Ari Shapiro [04:17]

Lucelli recounts her difficult pregnancy experience, which resulted in a C-section, leading the couple to conclude that one child was sufficient. Despite having stable careers—Lucelli in human resources and Byron in a union construction job—they remain apprehensive about the escalating costs associated with raising children.

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3. Societal Impacts: Demographic Shifts

The episode highlights the broader societal changes resulting from declining birth rates. A recent U.S. Census study is referenced, revealing that in 11 states, individuals over 65 now outnumber children—a significant increase from only three states five years prior.

"People over 65 now outnumber children in 11 states. And that's up from just three states where that was true five years ago."
— Ari Shapiro [05:09]

Emma Waters from the Heritage Foundation emphasizes the economic and social repercussions of this demographic imbalance. She argues that an aging population with fewer young people to support them could jeopardize military readiness, GDP growth, and the sustainability of Social Security.

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4. Political Reactions: Conservatism and Pronatalism

The conversation shifts to the political arena, where prominent conservative figures, including Former President Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and Vice President J.D. Vance, advocate for policies aimed at reversing the declining birth rate.

"I want more babies in the United States of America."
— Vice President J.D. Vance [06:09]

Ruth Bronstein, a sociologist at Johns Hopkins, analyzes the right-wing rhetoric surrounding birth rates. She suggests that the focus on fertility is a reaction to broader demographic changes that challenge conservative visions of American identity, particularly concerning secularism, racial diversity, and religious plurality.

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5. Criticism and Concerns: The Left’s Perspective

Conversely, the episode presents criticisms from the political left, concerned that the conservative push for higher birth rates could coincide with efforts to restrict reproductive rights and immigration.

"What we really need from you women are more children."
— **Brian Mann's reporting on Clinton's perspective [07:38]

Hillary Clinton criticizes the Trump administration’s immigration policies as contradictory to the goal of increasing the birth rate, noting that immigrants are among those most likely to have children in the U.S. This contradiction underscores a complex interplay between different policy areas impacting population trends.

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6. Policy Proposals and Expert Opinions

Lyman Stone of the Institute for Family Studies discusses potential policy interventions that could encourage higher fertility rates. While supportive of measures like expanding tax credits for families and promoting remote work, Stone expresses skepticism about President Trump’s proposal for $1,000 investment accounts for newborns.

"What is the big focus on us having children when you're not necessarily focused on how the rest of the life of a person is right?"
— Lucelli Martinez [09:17]

Stone argues that comprehensive support for families, including affordable childcare, healthcare, and parental leave—policies successfully implemented in other countries—are more effective in encouraging higher birth rates than financial incentives alone.

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7. Global Context and Future Implications

The episode situates the U.S. within a global context, noting that many countries with robust pronatalist policies, such as generous parental leave and free childcare, still experience only modest and often temporary increases in birth rates. This suggests that addressing America's declining fertility may require more nuanced and multifaceted approaches than simple financial incentives.

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8. Conclusion: Navigating a Demographic Crucial Moment

As the U.S. grapples with its falling birth rate, the episode underscores the complexity of the issue, intertwining personal choices with economic realities and political agendas. The demographic shift poses significant challenges and necessitates thoughtful, comprehensive policy responses to ensure societal stability and economic vitality.

"This demographic issue is poised to potentially remake so much of our society in a way that people just don't seem to be thinking about."
— Ari Shapiro [03:19]

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Produced by: Sarah Ventri, Liz Baker, Noah Caldwell, and Connor Donovan
Audio Engineering: Simon Laszlo Jansen and Ted Mebane
Edited by: Megan Pratts, Andrea De Leon, and Sarah Handel
Executive Producer: Sami Yenigun

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This episode of "Consider This" provides a thorough exploration of America's declining birth rate, offering listeners a nuanced understanding of the factors at play and the potential consequences for the nation's future.

Transcript

[Ari Shapiro]

Let's start with a small number that has big consequences, the total fertility rate. It measures how many babies on average each woman will have over her lifetime. And for a population to remain stable, flat, no growth, no decline, women on average have to have 2.1 kids. So you need to replace yourself, you need to replace a partner, and you need a little extra for mortality. That's Philip Levine. He studies population trends at Wellesley College and he says this number has been falling in high impact income countries, including the U.S. we're at 1.6, which we're worried about. At 1.6, South Korea is at 0.7. There's just, relatively speaking, no children being born in South Korea. To understand what a total fertility rate of 0.7 means for South Korea, you just have to project it forward across a lifetime. If you take 100 young people today, when they get to be, you know, the age of typical grandparents, those hundred people will have 12 grandchildren, 12 grandchildren for every 100 South Korean grandparents. Of course, this is unfolding more slowly in the US Than in South Korea, but if it continues, it could remake society in all kinds of ways. Consider this. The birth rate is falling fast in the US and it's driving a new political debate about what, if anything, can be done about it. From npr, I'm Ari Shapiro.

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[Ari Shapiro]

Years of previously approved funding for public media.

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The rescissions package now moves on to the Senate. This move poses a serious threat to local stations and public media as we know it. Please take a For public media [e-mail] thank you.

[Ari Shapiro]

It's Consider this from NPR. America's falling birth rate has become a political issue, one that's made it all the way to the White House.

[Unnamed NPR Announcer]

I'll be known as the fertilization president. That that's okay. That's not bad. That's not bad.

[Ari Shapiro]

I've.

[Unnamed NPR Announcer]

I've been called much worse.

[Ari Shapiro]

That's President Trump at a Women's History Month event earlier this year. He's one of a number of prominent conservatives who want to Reverse the birth rate decline. The thing is, underneath that demographic data point are millions of families making intimate decisions about having kids. Some researchers think all those choices are changing the world. Melissa Carney studies population trends at the University of Notre Dame.

[Unnamed NPR Announcer]

This demographic issue is poised to potentially remake so much of our society in a way that people just don't seem to be thinking about.

[Ari Shapiro]

NPR's Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann dug into the politics and personal stories behind America's shrinking birth rate.

[Unnamed NPR Announcer]

When we visit her home outside New York City, Lucelli Martinez is cooking dinner for her family. I think I'm gonna need some more oil. Do we have any more oil? Her 5 year old daughter is coloring at the kitchen counter. You finished all your homework, right? It was just the one she. Yep.

[Ari Shapiro]

Made a. Lucelli is 35 years old. Her husband Byron is 40. And they adore their daughter.

[Unnamed NPR Announcer]

She's like a physical embodiment of what my the relationship of my life, you know, and then we get to watch our little heart walk around all over the world and like, learn and discover things. It's just so incredible just to see her learn and grow.

[Ari Shapiro]

But here's the thing. Their daughter is their only child. And Lucelli says they've pretty much decided one is enough.

[Unnamed NPR Announcer]

I remember at one point I was like, I definitely want three kids. I was like, that's going to be great. That's what my mom had. That's what I want to have. But then Lucelli says she had a tough pregnancy with painful complications that ended in a C section. That's just one part of the equation, right?

[Ari Shapiro]

And Luiselli says having more children often seemed unaffordable. She and her husband, Byron, have good, stable careers. She works for a company in human resources. He has a union construction job. But they worry about the rising cost of everything.

[Unnamed NPR Announcer]

And the other part is having a child is extremely expensive.

[Ari Shapiro]

Researchers say a lot of American families are making similar calculations. The average woman today has roughly half as many children compared to the 1960s, so few that researchers at the Brookings Institution found that without a lot of immigration, the US Population would age and shrink rapidly. But Lucelli says for them, this is a personal decision.

[Unnamed NPR Announcer]

We're stopping and we're thinking about is this actually smart for ourselves? Will we be able to give this child a good life? Experts say American society is already changing as couples like Luiselli and Byron have fewer children or some have no children at all. A study released last month by the US Census found that people over 65 now outnumber children in 11 states. And that's up from just three states where that was true five years ago. Emma Waters is with the conservative leaning Heritage foundation, and she's been thinking about this. It means that we're going to have more adults than we have children to replace them. And that will heavily impact things like our military readiness, our overall GDP and economic growth in the United States. Waters thinks that without more babies, the US Will struggle to do basic things like funding Social Security. If you don't have enough workers, you won't have enough people to actually support older generations and those who are aging now.

[Ari Shapiro]

So now some of the country's most high profile conservatives, including Trump, Elon Musk and Vice President J.D. vance, say they want to reverse this trend. Here's Vance speaking at the March for Life earlier this year. So let me say very simply, I want more babies in the United States of America. There's a pattern here, of course. Virtually all of the attention so far to falling birth rates in the US Is coming from political figures on the right.

[Unnamed NPR Announcer]

Ruth Bronstein is a sociologist at Johns Hopkins and she studies right wing rhetoric. There's claims that we are experiencing a fertility crisis, and they are looking at data that is real and legitimate data that shows declining birth rates in the United States and really around the world. But Bronstein thinks some far right politicians are keying into this question about babies and birth rates because of other big demographic trends that are making the US More secular and more religiously and racially diverse. This caused a real sense of crisis on the right everywhere, from mainstream conservatism to the far right about the kind of decline of what their vision of America was supposed to look like. So the solution became fertility.

[Ari Shapiro]

Some activists and politicians on the left worry this focus on fertility by conservatives is also part of a wider agenda designed to limit reproductive rights and other freedoms for. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke about this during a public event at the 92nd Street Y in New York in May.

[Unnamed NPR Announcer]

This very blatant effort to basically send a message, most exemplified by Vance and Musk and others, that, you know, what we really need from you women are more children. And what that really means is you should go back to doing what you were born to do, which is to produce more children.

[Ari Shapiro]

Clinton also said the Trump administration's immigration policies deporting many young people who might settle in the US and build families are at odds with the goal of seeing more babies born in the United.

[Unnamed NPR Announcer]

States, which is sort of odd because the people who produce the most children in our country are immigrants and they want to deport them. So none of this adds up. But some conservatives say the push for more babies isn't about race or immigration. Lyman Stone, who leads the Pronatalism initiative at the conservative leaning Institute for Family Studies, acknowledges some on the far right believe more babies being born in the US Would translate into more white people. But Stone says that's just not true, because younger Americans, those of childbearing age, are also more diverse.

[Ari Shapiro]

If you increase fertility in the U.S. the pace at which we become a less white nation accelerates. I know that this kind of surprises people when you say this, but it's really quite simple math.

[Unnamed NPR Announcer]

But Stone says he does want to see big changes in the way young people are living their lives. He wants US Policy to encourage the kinds of stable, prosperous families where children are more possible. And he says many young people feel they're not hitting all the marks they need to hit before having kids. They're not marrying in time, they're not getting a house in time, they're not.

[Ari Shapiro]

Getting a stable job in time.

[Unnamed NPR Announcer]

All these things.

[Ari Shapiro]

And so what's really happening is people are involuntarily falling short of their desired fertility. Stone thinks there are some policies that might encourage couples in the US to have more babies. He supports expanding tax credits for families with kids, and he says letting parents work for from home may also be helpful. But he's skeptical of one of Trump's main ideas, a plan to create $1,000 investment accounts for new babies, which children could draw from as they grow up.

[Unnamed NPR Announcer]

Trump accounts will contribute to the lifelong success of millions of newborn babies. Stone and other experts we talked to said they don't think that's an immediate or big enough incentive to change most people's minds about parenting. And Lucelli Martinez agrees. I think that's my biggest concern is like, what is the big focus on us having children when you're not necessarily focused on how the rest of the life of a person is right? A lot of countries around the world are trying far more robust pronatalist policies, everything from free childcare and health care to extended parental leave.

[Ari Shapiro]

But researchers say even those programs tend to produce only small and often temporary increases in the number of births. And those policies are far more generous and expensive than what's being proposed here in the US Even by politicians who say declining birth rates are a Crisis. That was NPR's Brian Mann and Sarah McCammon. This episode was produced by Sarah Ventri, Liz Baker, Noah Caldwell, and Connor Donovan, with audio engineering by Simon Laszlo Jansen and Ted Mebane. It was edited by Megan Pratts, Andrea De Leon and Sarah Handel. Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun. It's Consider this from npr. I'm Ari Shapiro. This is Ira Glass on this American Life. Sometimes we just show up somewhere, turn on our tape recorders and see what happens. If you can't get seven cars in 12 days, you gotta look yourself in the mirror and say, holy.

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