The U.S. is interested in Venezuelan oil, but that's not all

Summary

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Podcast Summary

Podcast: Consider This from NPR

Episode: The U.S. is interested in Venezuelan oil, but that's not all
Date: December 16, 2025
Host: Scott Detrow (NPR)
Guest: Francisco Monaldi, Director of the Latin American Energy Program, Baker Institute, Rice University

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Main Theme

This episode explores the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, focusing particularly on the recent U.S. seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker. The discussion dives into the historical, political, and economic complexities of the U.S.-Venezuela relationship, the strategic significance of Venezuela’s oil industry, and the current U.S. administration’s motivations for increased pressure—linking issues of oil, immigration, sanctions, and regime change.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Unprecedented Oil Tanker Seizure

• Escalation in U.S.-Venezuela Tensions:
  The U.S. has seized the largest oil tanker from Venezuela, allegedly smuggling oil in violation of sanctions. This move marks a significant escalation beyond prior actions like targeting drug boats and increasing military presence in Caribbean waters.

  • "The US Government says the tanker was filled with illegal oil headed to the black market in violation of sanctions." (A, 00:19)
  • "The seizure was an unprecedented move... represents an escalation in the standoff between the two countries." (A, 00:27)

• Venezuela’s Response:
  President Nicolas Maduro condemned the U.S. action, likening it to piracy.

  • "Last Thursday, [Maduro] compared the seizure of the tanker to pirates of the Caribbean, saying the US acted criminally and illegally." (A, 01:02)

Historical U.S.-Venezuela Oil Relations

• Longstanding Economic Ties:
  U.S. oil companies have been active in Venezuela for about a century, interrupted by periods of nationalization and renationalization.

  • "US Companies have been a major player... since a century ago when oil production started. There was a brief period when nationalization happened... but then they came back, particularly Exxon, Conoco and Chevron... then there was a renationalization by Hugo Chavez and only Chevron remains." (E, 04:23)

• Decline in Venezuelan Oil Production:
  Despite vast reserves, Venezuela’s oil output has dropped dramatically due to mismanagement, excessive government extraction from the national oil company, and broken deals with international firms. U.S. sanctions since 2020 have exacerbated this decline.

  • "The production has declined in the last 25 years from around 3.6 million barrels to about a million barrels today. Of course, US sanctions starting in 2020 did also affect the oil industry." (E, 05:16)

The Impact of Renewed U.S. Crackdown

• Economic Implications for Venezuela:
  If the U.S. cracks down further on black market oil shipments, Venezuela may see even lower oil prices (due to risk discounts), reduced export volumes, and a potential repeat of the 2020 economic collapse.
  • "It could produce first a decline on the price that Venezuela gets because they will have to offer very significant discounts... [and] a significant decline in revenues and then in GDP like the one that Venezuela had in 2020 when sanctions were increased... and that will... have a significant impact ... including an increase in inflation and a deteriorating income for Venezuelans." (E, 06:04)

Broader Political Motives

• Why Venezuela? Why Now?
  The Trump administration’s focus is fueled by allegations of drug trafficking, issues with democracy and election legitimacy, and a desire to counter migration from Venezuela. The episode suggests internal administration dynamics, especially pressure from Secretary Marco Rubio, drive this aggressive stance.
  • "It seems to me that the policy is being driven by Secretary Marco Rubio, who has for a long time thought that Venezuela and Cuba are nefarious actors against U.S. interests." (E, 07:28)
  • "The drug issue and the crime issue and the immigration issue have been a way to align his views with others in the administration to really focus on producing a change in government... without the need to ... put boots on the ground ... just by putting a credible threat." (E, 07:28)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Unprecedented Nature of the Seizure:
  "It's something that has not happened in the case of Venezuela... this is unprecedented in that is the first time that the US is sort of signaling a blockade."
  — Francisco Monaldi (E), 03:43

• On U.S. Oil Company Involvement:
  "US Companies have been a major player in Venezuela since a century ago..."
  — Francisco Monaldi (E), 04:23

• On Effectiveness of Sanctions:
  "The production has declined in the last 25 years... US sanctions starting in 2020 did also affect the oil industry."
  — Francisco Monaldi (E), 05:16

• On Broader U.S. Motives:
  "They want to do it without the need to, you know, put boots on the ground or if possible, just by putting a credible threat ... And of course, this oil side seems to be part of that pressure campaign to get Maduro out..."
  — Francisco Monaldi (E), 07:28

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Tanker Seizure and U.S.-Venezuela Standoff: 00:00–03:05
• Expert Interview – Historical Context of U.S.-Venezuela Oil Ties: 03:05–05:01
• Causes of Venezuela’s Oil Production Decline: 05:01–06:04
• Economic Implications of U.S. Crackdown: 06:04–06:59
• Political Drivers Behind U.S. Policy: 06:59–08:37

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Conclusion

This episode provided a succinct yet comprehensive overview of the latest escalation between the U.S. and Venezuela, the historical and economic background behind these tensions, and the likely repercussions for both countries if the standoff continues. Via Francisco Monaldi’s expertise, listeners gained insight into the structural challenges of Venezuela’s oil industry, how sanctions directly impact the country’s economy, and the evolving strategies behind U.S. foreign policy in the region.

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Transcript

[A]

Tensions between Venezuela and the US have been growing and growing in recent months. And last Wednesday, the pressure point was oil.

[B]

As you probably know, we've just seized a tanker on the coast of Venezuela, large tanker, very large, largest one ever seized, actually.

[A]

The US Government says the tanker was filled with illegal oil headed to the black market in violation of sanctions.

[B]

Well, we keep it, I guess.

[A]

The seizure was an unprecedented move and it represents an escalation in the standoff between the two countries. In recent months, the US has struck nearly two dozen suspected drug boats in nearby waters, issued new sanctions targeting Venezuela, and increased its naval presence in the Caribbean. Trump says this conflict is in part because of immigration to the U.S. well.

[B]

It'S about a lot of things, but one of the things it's about is the fact that they've allowed millions of people to come into our country from their prisons, from gangs, from drug dealers and from mental institutions, probably proportionately more than anybody else.

[A]

Meanwhile, Venezuela's leader, Nicolas Maduro, says the US Is only interested in his country's oil reserves. Last Thursday, he compared the seizure of the tanker to pirates of the Caribbean, saying the US Acted criminally and illegally. Consider this, the US has long had economic and political interests in Venezuela, and the oil industry of the South American nation has been a key part of that relationship. From NPR, I'm Scott Detrow.

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[A]

It's Consider this from npr. Venezuela has one of the biggest oil reserves in the world. And its regime has been accused of relying on illicit tankers like the one the US Seized last week to get around sanctions. The goal, to smuggle crude oil into global supply chains. But how did we get to this point? To help us break that down, we called Francisco Monaldi. He's the director of the Latin American Energy Program at the Baker Institute at Rice University. Thanks for talking to us.

[E]

Thank you for inviting me.

[A]

In terms of U.S. troops, you know, sliding down ropes from helicopters to seize an oil tanker, have you ever seen anything like this before?

[E]

It's something that has not happened in the case of Venezuela. There have been other events recently related to sanctioned Iranian vessels, but this is unprecedented in that is the first time that the US Sort of is signaling a blockade, meaning that the tankers coming out of Venezuela are potentially gonna be subject to seizures in the future.

[A]

Let's rewind way back. Zoom way out. In terms of the context we're talking about this historically, what's the best way to think about why and how much the US has focused in on Venezuela's oil production?

[E]

Well, the US Companies have been a major player in Venezuela since a century ago when oil production started. There was a brief period when nationalization happened in the oil industry of Venezuela between 1975 and the early 90s in which the oil companies were not there. But then they came back, particularly Exxon, Conoco and Chevron. But then there was a renationalization by Hugo Chavez and only Chevron remains. But it's a very big player in Venezuela, producing about 25% of Venezuela's exports.

[A]

And yet Venezuela has one of the biggest oil reserves in the world, but is a relatively small producer compared to the oil it has. Is that just because of the way that it was economically isolated post nationalization or what's going on there?

[E]

It's a combination of things. The dominant player still is the national oil company. And the national oil company has been mismanaged. And there has been too much extraction of resources from the oil company to the government and reneging on the deals with international oil companies. As a result, the production has declined in the last 25 years from around 3.6 million million barrels to about a million barrels today. Of course, US sanctions starting in 2020 did also affect the oil industry.

[A]

So if the US follows through and continues to crack down on these black market shipments, how much do you think that affects Venezuela's economy, which, as we know, is already in a terrible place?

[E]

Well, it could produce first a decline on the price that Venezuela gets because they will have to offer very significant discounts for anyone to take the risks. In addition, of course, the volumes if a significant number of tankers are not willing to go to Venezuela to load oil, and that could produce a significant decline in revenues and then in GDP like the one that Venezuela had in 2020 when sanctions were increased. And Covid led to a massive decline in production to less than half of what it is today. And that will, of course, have a significant impact in everything related to the economy, including an increase in inflation and a deteriorating income for Venezuelans.

[A]

We've been talking about the energy industry specifically here, but just kind of big picture thinking about the tension between the US And Venezuela right now. This is about alleged drug trafficking. This is about election improprieties and the Maduro government ignoring widespread viewed as an election loss from international observers. All of those things have been going on for a while now. Why do you think there's such a focus on Venezuela right now coming from the Trump administration?

[E]

It seems to me that the policy is being driven by Secretary Marco Rubio, who has for a long time thought that Venezuela and Cuba are nefarious actors against U.S. interests. And the drug issue and the crime issue and the immigration issue have been a way to align his views with others in the administration to really focus on producing a change in government. You know, Nicolas Maduro leaves power, and so they want to do it without the need to, you know, put boots on the ground or if possible, just by putting a credible threat on what they might do in Venezuela. And of course, this oil side seems to be part of that pressure campaign to get Maduro out without having to pay any significant cost. On the US Side, that is Francisco.

[A]

Menaldi, director of the Latin American Energy Program at the Baker Institute at Rice University. Thanks so much for talking to us.

[E]

Thank you.

[A]

This episode was produced by Eva Berger and Alejandra Marquez Hanzi. It was edited by Sarah Handel. Our executive producer is Sammy Yanigun. It's consider this from npr. I'm Scott Detrowed.

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