They want America to have more babies. Is this their moment?

Summary

Consider This from NPR
Episode: "They want America to have more babies. Is this their moment?"
Release Date: April 7, 2025

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Introduction: The Pronatalist Push in America

In this episode of NPR’s Consider This, host Ari Shapiro delves into the burgeoning movement advocating for increased birth rates in the United States. Titled "They want America to have more babies. Is this their moment?", the episode explores the motivations, key figures, and implications of this pronatalist agenda, which has gained significant traction among influential Americans, including Elon Musk and Vice President J.D. Vance.

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Elon Musk and J.D. Vance: High-Profile Advocates

Elon Musk's Existential Concerns

Elon Musk has been vocal about what he perceives as existential threats to civilization. In a recent interview on Fox News, Musk emphasized that declining birth rates pose a greater danger than artificial intelligence, stating, "The birth rate is very low in almost every country, and unless that changes, civilization will disappear." (00:26)

J.D. Vance’s Pronatalist Stance

Vice President J.D. Vance echoed Musk's concerns in one of his early speeches, addressing the March for Life rally in Washington. He declared, "I want more babies in the United States of America." (00:50) Vance views demographic decline as a critical issue, highlighting its potential economic ramifications and advocating for policies to encourage larger families.

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The Pronatalism Movement and NatalCon

NatalCon: A Gathering for Pronatalists

Natalism, an ideological movement concerned with promoting higher birth rates, has been gaining momentum, particularly on the political right. A recent conference organized by Kevin Dolan, held in Austin, Texas, known as NatalCon, served as a focal point for pronatalist advocates. NPR’s Lisa Hagen attended the event to uncover the movement’s dynamics and key players.

Diverse Faces of Pronatalism

At NatalCon, Simone Collins emerged as a prominent figure, embodying the tech-driven approach to pronatalism. Collins, accompanied by her husband Malcolm, who are expecting a fifth child, represents a segment that leverages technology and venture capitalism to advocate for larger families. Collins stated, "The number one goal we have is to make everyone universally aware of demographic collapse as a catastrophic issue." (04:35)

Conversely, Charles Haywood represents a more traditionalist and religiously motivated wing of the movement. A shampoo magnate by profession, Haywood attributes declining birth rates to societal shifts like feminism and the dismantling of traditional gender roles. He proclaimed, "The Civil Rights act of 1964 and its progeny are probably the single most destructive set of laws in American history." (06:00)

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Contrasting Approaches Within Pronatalism

Tech-Centric vs. Traditional Pronatalists

The pronatalist movement is not monolithic. On one end, figures like Elon Musk and the Collins family advocate for integrating technology—such as in vitro fertilization (IVF) and artificial intelligence (AI)—to support and enhance family growth. They believe that technological advancements can mitigate the challenges of raising larger families in a modern, competitive world.

On the other end, traditional pronatalists like Charles Haywood emphasize restoring patriarchal structures and promoting strict gender norms. This faction often intertwines pronatalism with anti-feminist and racially charged ideologies, seeking to create a society where traditional family roles are paramount.

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Sociological Insights: Understanding Fertility Declines

Expert Analysis by Catherine Benjamin Guzzo

Catherine Benjamin Guzzo, a sociologist at the University of North Carolina’s Carolina Population Center, provides a nuanced perspective on the decline in birth rates. She explains that the trend is part of a global shift, with many nations experiencing decreasing fertility rates due to various socio-economic factors. Guzzo notes, "People are not being irrational and selfish when they're deciding not to have children. People are making a series of decisions to not have a child now, maybe in the future." (08:19)

Factors Influencing the Decision to Have Children

Guzzo emphasizes that the decision to have fewer children is influenced by the desire for stability, including secure income, affordable housing, quality education, accessible childcare, and a hopeful outlook for the future. She advocates for increased societal support to enable individuals to align their family plans with their ideals of good parenting.

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Controversies and Extremist Elements

Kevin Dolan’s Radical Views

Kevin Dolan, the organizer of NatalCon, has a controversial background. After leaving his data science job in 2021 following the exposure of his anonymous Twitter account, Dolan continued to propagate extremist views on his podcast. He has advocated for the restoration of hierarchies based on gender and race, arguing that society has become "excessively effeminate, weak, compassionate," and calling for an "aristocratic class" driven by different values (09:10).

Affiliations with Extremist Publishers

NatalCon’s sponsorship by Passage Press, a publisher known for disseminating racist and anti-intellectual content, further highlights the movement's association with extremist ideologies. Peachy Keenan, a writer for Passage Press, presented at NatalCon, promoting narratives that propagate racial superiority and anti-feminist sentiments (10:36).

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Implications and Future Outlook

Policy Proposals and Potential Impact

Pronatalist advocates like J.D. Vance see the current political climate as opportune for implementing policies aimed at reversing demographic decline. Vance believes that the ideas fostered within movements like NatalCon could influence executive orders and legislative initiatives in the coming years (08:39).

Challenges to Pronatalist Narratives

Despite the movement’s growing influence, sociologists like Guzzo argue that pronatalist claims often overlook the complex socio-economic factors contributing to fertility declines. Addressing these underlying issues—such as economic instability, healthcare access, and societal support for families—may be more effective in encouraging higher birth rates than the ideologically driven approaches proposed by pronatalists.

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Conclusion: A Movement at a Crossroads

The pronatalist movement in America finds itself at a critical juncture, balancing between technologically driven advocacy and traditional, often exclusionary ideologies. While influential figures like Elon Musk and J.D. Vance propel the conversation forward, the movement grapples with internal divisions and external criticisms from experts who challenge its foundational premises. As demographic trends continue to evolve, the impact and direction of pronatalism will remain a pivotal topic in shaping the future societal landscape of the United States.

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Transcript Excerpts:

• Elon Musk on Birth Rates: "The birth rate is very low in almost every country, and unless that changes, civilization will disappear." [00:26]

• J.D. Vance at NatalCon: "But the topic of demographic decline clearly matters to Elon Musk, JD Vance and many others in the Trump administration..." [08:39]

• Catherine Benjamin Guzzo on Fertility Decisions: "People are not being irrational and selfish when they're deciding not to have children..." [08:19]

• Kevin Dolan on Societal Hierarchies: "We're expected to lie about the existence of these hierarchies all of the time..." [09:10]

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Produced by Audrey Wynne and Connor Donovan. Edited by Brett Neely and Courtney Dorn. Executive Producer: Sami Yenigun.

Transcript

[Ari Shapiro]

Elon Musk is not shy about declaring when he feels civilization is at risk. Last month, he said the fate of civilization depended on the outcome of an election for one seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. I feel like this is one of those things that may not seem that it's going to affect the entire destiny of humanity, but I think it will. Another existential risk, according to Musk. Artificial intelligence, only 20% chance of annihilation.

[J.D. Vance]

That's a lot better than I thought.

[Ari Shapiro]

That's him on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast earlier this year. But Musk has said the biggest danger civilization faces by far is falling birth rates. In a recent Fox News interview, he said it keeps him up at night. The birth rate is very low in almost every country, and unless that changes, civilization will disappear. And Musk isn't the only one in the Trump administration focused on this issue.

[Simone Collins]

Please help me welcome your Vice President of the United States, J.D. vance.

[Ari Shapiro]

In one of his earliest speeches as Vice President, J.D. vance addressed the March for Life, the annual anti abortion rights rally in Washington. So let me say very simply, I want more babies in the United States of America. Musk and Vance are two of the most high profile Americans pushing this point of view, but they're not alone. The birth rate decline and its potential economic consequences are a growing policy concern on the political right and the left. And on the right, some of the people worried about this have coalesced around an ideological movement called pronatalism. Some of its advocates recently gathered at a conference organized by a man named Kevin Dolan. And NPR was there.

[J.D. Vance]

And we have a powerful opportunity this year in particular to have conversations that can become the executive orders, the white papers, the grant proposals that can change the course of nations in the2030s.

[Ari Shapiro]

Pro natalists think they have a friendly audience in the White House. How do they want to use it? From NPR, I'm Ari Shapiro. 99% of the U.S. population lives within listening range of at least one public media station and everyone can listen to.

[Lisa Hagen]

NPR podcasts free of charge.

[Ari Shapiro]

That means you get completely unpaywalled access to stories, prize winning reporting, and shows that represent the voices in every corner of the country. Hear the bigger picture every day on npr.

[Lisa Hagen]

NPR informs and connects communities around the country, providing reliable information in times of crisis. Federal funding helps us fulfill our mission to create a more informed public and ensures that public radio remains available to everyone. Learn more about safeguarding the future of public media. Visit protectmypublicmedia.org Wait, wait, don't tell me.

[J.D. Vance]

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[Ari Shapiro]

It'S consider this from NPR. This moment feels ripe with opportunity for people who want Americans to have more kids. In Elon Musk and J.D. vance, they see key White House figures interested in their cause. That was the backdrop for their gathering in Austin, Texas. It's called natal con. NPR's Lisa Hagen was there and has this story of what she found.

[Lisa Hagen]

Simone Collins in her thick rimmed round glasses is one of the more visible faces of pronatalism on purpose.

[Simone Collins]

My whole entire like Etsy get up right now, it's intentionally cringe.

[Lisa Hagen]

She's here at natalcon in her signature look, which she describes as technopuritan.

[Simone Collins]

There should obviously be more cybernetics in my outfit, but we are combining like chunky hipster glasses and a lot of modern equipment with a bonnet and linen clothing.

[Lisa Hagen]

Think Thanksgiving pilgrim in a school play with a baby strapped to her back.

[Simone Collins]

You'll get to do that soon.

[Lisa Hagen]

That's one year old industry. Americus Indy's three older siblings are home with neighbors in Pennsylvania. Simone and her husband Malcolm, are expecting a fifth child this year, and she's said that she's willing to die in childbirth to have as many kids as possible.

[Simone Collins]

I would rather not do that. But historically, women died in childbirth at roughly similar rates to the rates at which men died protecting their land or country.

[Lisa Hagen]

The Collinses have made themselves available for profiles in pretty much every major news outlet you can think of.

[Simone Collins]

The number one goal we have is to make everyone universally aware of demographic collapse as a catastrophic issue. Our big focus is primarily on just signaling that this is a culture that values family and kids and secondarily taking a regulatory foot off the neck of parents.

[Lisa Hagen]

Simone and her husband are big fans of Elon Musk. He's famous, he's got 13 kids. And he also tends to talk about falling birth rates in catastrophic terms.

[Ari Shapiro]

Nothing seems to be turning that around. Humanity is dying.

[Lisa Hagen]

That's him on Fox News recently. Musk and the Collinses are seen as members of the tech camp of pronatalist advocacy. Venture capitalism, technology like IVF and AI are key parts of their recipe for maximizing human potential via more babies. The Collinses are also very interested in genetic engineering. Another pronatalist camp includes the more religiously motivated and believers in strict gender norms. It's referred to as the trads, as in traditional and generally, women should not have careers.

[Ari Shapiro]

They should be socially stigmatized if they have careers.

[Lisa Hagen]

That's Charles Haywood at the first Natal Con a couple years ago this year. He's behind the scenes as a sponsor. He made his money as a shampoo magnate. Haywood blames birth rate declines on feminism and the overturning of what he sees as natural hierarchies of gender and race.

[Ari Shapiro]

The Civil Rights act of 1964 and its progeny are probably the single most destructive set of laws in American history, and all shall be wiped forever from the history of this nation.

[Lisa Hagen]

So it may seem like a challenge to square a Charles Haywood with a Simone Collins. She's an entrepreneurial woman with a master's degree from Cambridge. But they share a commitment to spaces like natalcon because they both believe modern culture has stopped prioritizing nuclear families and having kids, which is not really how most demographers describe what's happening. Catherine Benjamin Guzzo is a University of North Carolina sociologist who runs the Carolina Population Center.

[Catherine Benjamin Guzzo]

The United States has low fertility right now. Up until the Great Recession, we were sort of humming along, you know, right around two kids per person.

[Lisa Hagen]

Then birth rates began to fall, partly because the US Succeeded in reducing teen and unintended births. America was actually a couple decades late to the declining fertility trend. It's something that's been happening at different rates all over the world.

[Catherine Benjamin Guzzo]

And this is true in, you know, Italy, and it's true in Japan, and it's true in many countries in Sub Saharan Africa. India has a below replacement fertility rate in some parts.

[Lisa Hagen]

The theories about why this is happening are pretty complicated, but there's also another trend emerging. We're used to thinking of richer, more educated people having fewer children than the poor and working class. Recent research shows that tendency has actually started to reverse in many countries, including the U.S. guzzo says surveys show most people want kids. But nowadays, in this very competitive world, they have a vision of what being a good parent means. A stable home, income, a partner, hope about the future.

[Catherine Benjamin Guzzo]

People are not being irrational and selfish when they're deciding not to have children. People are making a series of decisions to not have a child now, maybe in the future, and then that keeps happening because we aren't giving people the societal supports to meet their visions of having a good parent.

[Lisa Hagen]

For her, that should include things like more government funding for health care, affordable housing, schools, childcare, addressing climate change. But Many pronatalists, including Natal Cons organizer Kevin Dolan, see their biggest allies as the folks in the White House right now. Here's Dolan speaking at the conference over lunch.

[J.D. Vance]

But the topic of demographic decline clearly matters to Elon Musk, JD Vance and many others in the Trump administration, which means that the great ideas developed here can get a hearing that would not have been possible last year.

[Lisa Hagen]

Dolan left his data science job in 2021 after his anonymous Twitter account was exposed. Among other things, he'd used it to promote the racist notion that white men are superior to other races and women. After getting Doxed, Dolan continued sharing his thoughts about how society should be ordered on his podcast.

[J.D. Vance]

We're expected to lie about the existence of these hierarchies all of the time, and if our goal is to rehabilitate hierarchies of nature, then the best place to start is the most fundamental natural hierarchies, which are found in the family. And that brings us back to where we started with selective breeding.

[Lisa Hagen]

Matthew McManus is a lecturer at the University of Michigan and an expert on the modern hard right writers Dolan takes inspiration from.

[J.D. Vance]

The idea is essentially that our society has become excessively effeminate, weak, compassionate, and what they want to do is breed or elevate an aristocratic class that's going to be masculine, violent, not necessarily motivated by, let's call it, empathy.

[Lisa Hagen]

For these thinkers, restoring this masculine culture means feminism and multicultural democracy need to be rooted out.

[J.D. Vance]

Women are to be subordinated to men, largely going to be responsible for managing the household, although with no real particular authority. And of course, they're going to have an awful lot of children.

[Lisa Hagen]

It's not explicit on the Natal Con stage, but part of Dolan's vision for the conference is to help build this world where men like him can't be doxed because they'll be in power. Dolan says his conference is nonpartisan, and he invites speakers who say stuff like this.

[Catherine Benjamin Guzzo]

We don't really want to market Natalism.

[J.D. Vance]

To the progressive feminists.

[Catherine Benjamin Guzzo]

The people maxing out their fertility should be people, ideally, who won't raise their children to be gender neutral, furries who want to join Antifa one day.

[Lisa Hagen]

That's a speech from the first Natal Con. It's a writer who goes by the pseudonym Peachy Keenan. Her work is published by a company that sells books arguing black people are inherently more criminal and less intelligent than white people. That publisher, Passage Press, sponsored natalcon this year, and its founder was a featured speaker. These are some of the elements united under the banner of pronatalism. They don't all agree on how to boost birth rates. But two years after the first natal con, this is a movement that's much closer to power than it used to be.

[Ari Shapiro]

That was NPR's Lisa Hagan. This episode was produced by Audrey Wynne and Connor Donovan, with audio engineering by Zoe Vangenhoven. It was edited by Brett Neely and Courtney Dorn. Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun. It's Consider this from npr. I'm Ari Shapiro.

[Lisa Hagen]

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