Consider This from NPR
Episode: "They want America to have more babies. Is this their moment?"
Release Date: April 7, 2025

Introduction: The Pronatalist Push in America

In this episode of NPR’s Consider This, host Ari Shapiro delves into the burgeoning movement advocating for increased birth rates in the United States. Titled "They want America to have more babies. Is this their moment?", the episode explores the motivations, key figures, and implications of this pronatalist agenda, which has gained significant traction among influential Americans, including Elon Musk and Vice President J.D. Vance.

Elon Musk and J.D. Vance: High-Profile Advocates

Elon Musk's Existential Concerns

Elon Musk has been vocal about what he perceives as existential threats to civilization. In a recent interview on Fox News, Musk emphasized that declining birth rates pose a greater danger than artificial intelligence, stating, "The birth rate is very low in almost every country, and unless that changes, civilization will disappear." (00:26)

J.D. Vance’s Pronatalist Stance

Vice President J.D. Vance echoed Musk's concerns in one of his early speeches, addressing the March for Life rally in Washington. He declared, "I want more babies in the United States of America." (00:50) Vance views demographic decline as a critical issue, highlighting its potential economic ramifications and advocating for policies to encourage larger families.

The Pronatalism Movement and NatalCon

NatalCon: A Gathering for Pronatalists

Natalism, an ideological movement concerned with promoting higher birth rates, has been gaining momentum, particularly on the political right. A recent conference organized by Kevin Dolan, held in Austin, Texas, known as NatalCon, served as a focal point for pronatalist advocates. NPR’s Lisa Hagen attended the event to uncover the movement’s dynamics and key players.

Diverse Faces of Pronatalism

At NatalCon, Simone Collins emerged as a prominent figure, embodying the tech-driven approach to pronatalism. Collins, accompanied by her husband Malcolm, who are expecting a fifth child, represents a segment that leverages technology and venture capitalism to advocate for larger families. Collins stated, "The number one goal we have is to make everyone universally aware of demographic collapse as a catastrophic issue." (04:35)

Conversely, Charles Haywood represents a more traditionalist and religiously motivated wing of the movement. A shampoo magnate by profession, Haywood attributes declining birth rates to societal shifts like feminism and the dismantling of traditional gender roles. He proclaimed, "The Civil Rights act of 1964 and its progeny are probably the single most destructive set of laws in American history." (06:00)

Contrasting Approaches Within Pronatalism

Tech-Centric vs. Traditional Pronatalists

The pronatalist movement is not monolithic. On one end, figures like Elon Musk and the Collins family advocate for integrating technology—such as in vitro fertilization (IVF) and artificial intelligence (AI)—to support and enhance family growth. They believe that technological advancements can mitigate the challenges of raising larger families in a modern, competitive world.

On the other end, traditional pronatalists like Charles Haywood emphasize restoring patriarchal structures and promoting strict gender norms. This faction often intertwines pronatalism with anti-feminist and racially charged ideologies, seeking to create a society where traditional family roles are paramount.

Sociological Insights: Understanding Fertility Declines

Expert Analysis by Catherine Benjamin Guzzo

Catherine Benjamin Guzzo, a sociologist at the University of North Carolina’s Carolina Population Center, provides a nuanced perspective on the decline in birth rates. She explains that the trend is part of a global shift, with many nations experiencing decreasing fertility rates due to various socio-economic factors. Guzzo notes, "People are not being irrational and selfish when they're deciding not to have children. People are making a series of decisions to not have a child now, maybe in the future." (08:19)

Factors Influencing the Decision to Have Children

Guzzo emphasizes that the decision to have fewer children is influenced by the desire for stability, including secure income, affordable housing, quality education, accessible childcare, and a hopeful outlook for the future. She advocates for increased societal support to enable individuals to align their family plans with their ideals of good parenting.

Controversies and Extremist Elements

Kevin Dolan’s Radical Views

Kevin Dolan, the organizer of NatalCon, has a controversial background. After leaving his data science job in 2021 following the exposure of his anonymous Twitter account, Dolan continued to propagate extremist views on his podcast. He has advocated for the restoration of hierarchies based on gender and race, arguing that society has become "excessively effeminate, weak, compassionate," and calling for an "aristocratic class" driven by different values (09:10).

Affiliations with Extremist Publishers

NatalCon’s sponsorship by Passage Press, a publisher known for disseminating racist and anti-intellectual content, further highlights the movement's association with extremist ideologies. Peachy Keenan, a writer for Passage Press, presented at NatalCon, promoting narratives that propagate racial superiority and anti-feminist sentiments (10:36).

Implications and Future Outlook

Policy Proposals and Potential Impact

Pronatalist advocates like J.D. Vance see the current political climate as opportune for implementing policies aimed at reversing demographic decline. Vance believes that the ideas fostered within movements like NatalCon could influence executive orders and legislative initiatives in the coming years (08:39).

Challenges to Pronatalist Narratives

Despite the movement’s growing influence, sociologists like Guzzo argue that pronatalist claims often overlook the complex socio-economic factors contributing to fertility declines. Addressing these underlying issues—such as economic instability, healthcare access, and societal support for families—may be more effective in encouraging higher birth rates than the ideologically driven approaches proposed by pronatalists.

Conclusion: A Movement at a Crossroads

The pronatalist movement in America finds itself at a critical juncture, balancing between technologically driven advocacy and traditional, often exclusionary ideologies. While influential figures like Elon Musk and J.D. Vance propel the conversation forward, the movement grapples with internal divisions and external criticisms from experts who challenge its foundational premises. As demographic trends continue to evolve, the impact and direction of pronatalism will remain a pivotal topic in shaping the future societal landscape of the United States.

Transcript Excerpts:

• Elon Musk on Birth Rates: "The birth rate is very low in almost every country, and unless that changes, civilization will disappear." [00:26]

• J.D. Vance at NatalCon: "But the topic of demographic decline clearly matters to Elon Musk, JD Vance and many others in the Trump administration..." [08:39]

• Catherine Benjamin Guzzo on Fertility Decisions: "People are not being irrational and selfish when they're deciding not to have children..." [08:19]

• Kevin Dolan on Societal Hierarchies: "We're expected to lie about the existence of these hierarchies all of the time..." [09:10]

Produced by Audrey Wynne and Connor Donovan. Edited by Brett Neely and Courtney Dorn. Executive Producer: Sami Yenigun.