Consider This from NPR: Three Years into His War on Ukraine, What Does Putin Really Want?

Release Date: June 1, 2025

Introduction

In the June 1, 2025 episode of NPR's "Consider This," host Scott Detrow delves into the enduring conflict in Ukraine, marking its third anniversary. The episode seeks to unravel Russian President Vladimir Putin's true intentions behind the prolonged war, amidst fluctuating international responses and evolving military strategies.

Recent Developments and U.S. Response

The episode opens with a reflection on the volatile nature of the conflict, highlighted by shifting tones from prominent U.S. figures. Former President Donald Trump recently expressed concern over the ongoing violence in Ukraine, stating at [00:05] “5,000 young people every single week are being killed,” signaling his apprehension over Putin's actions. This marks a notable shift, as Trump, known for his previous affinity towards Putin, now publicly criticizes the Russian leader: “I'm not happy with what Putin's doing. He's killing a lot of people... He's sending rockets into cities and killing people. And I don't like it at all” ([00:38]).

These comments emerged amid Russia's largest aerial attacks on Ukraine since the war's inception, resulting in significant casualties and widespread destruction ([00:23]). The Kremlin has proposed a second round of ceasefire talks in Istanbul; however, skepticism remains high among experts about Putin's sincerity in seeking peace.

Expert Analysis: Angela Stent on Putin’s Objectives

To gain deeper insight, Scott Detrow interviews Angela Stent, professor emeritus at Georgetown University and author of "Putin's Russia against the West and the Rest." Stent traces the evolution of Putin's goals from the initial 2014 invasion of Crimea to the present-day conflict.

Recovery of Crimea and Destabilization of Ukraine ([03:46]): Stent explains that Putin's original objectives centered on reclaiming Crimea, driven by his purported concerns over NATO's presence in the region. However, NATO had not advanced Ukraine's membership, making the annexation a strategic move to destabilize Ukraine further.

Shifting Goals Over Three Years ([04:20]): Now, three years into the conflict, Stent posits that Putin aims for a Ukraine that is smaller, demilitarized, and committed to never joining NATO. Additionally, he seeks regime change in Kyiv to install a more pro-Russian government. However, the resilience and strengthened capabilities of Ukraine have made these objectives increasingly unattainable.

NATO and Western Powers: The Broader Geopolitical Landscape

The discussion shifts to NATO's role and its perceived threat from Russia. Stent argues that Putin's NATO objections are more of a façade to mask his true intent, which is primarily centered on controlling Ukraine. She emphasizes that:

“What he's after is he still thinks he can win the war. He wants a Ukraine that's smaller, that's weaker, that's demilitarized...” ([04:30])

Stent also highlights the improbability of permanently restricting Ukraine from NATO membership, especially if NATO continues to exist and expand. The episode underscores the complexities of achieving a lasting ceasefire or peace agreement given these entrenched positions.

Negotiation Dynamics and U.S. Policy Shifts

President Trump's recent criticisms reflect a potential shift in U.S. policy, though Stent remains cautious about its impact. She notes that while Trump advocates for a "bilateral reset" with Putin, offering economic relationships and lifting sanctions, this approach may inadvertently benefit Russia by keeping negotiations perpetual without compelling Putin to make significant concessions ([07:05]).

Furthermore, Angie Stent discusses the current state of sanctions, revealing their limited effectiveness due to widespread evasion:

“They have imposed costs on the Russian economy, but actually the most severe costs are happening now with low oil prices... There's been huge sanctions evasion.” ([09:07])

A new Senate bill aims to tighten sanctions by targeting countries aiding Russia in circumventing them. However, Stent remains skeptical about whether extended sanctions alone would compel Putin to cease hostilities, advocating instead for increased military support to Ukraine as a more decisive strategy.

Assessing the Future of Peace Talks

As peace talks loom in Istanbul, critical questions arise about Russia's true intentions and willingness to adjust its demands. Stent suggests monitoring:

1. Russian Demands: Are they adhering to their initial "maximum demands," or showing flexibility?
2. Ukrainian Responses: Is Ukraine open to temporary territorial compromises to sustain current control over key regions?
3. International Commitments: Will Western support for Ukraine intensify, thereby altering the conflict's dynamics?

Stent underscores that genuine progress would require both sides to make concessions, something that has been elusive in past negotiations.

Conclusion: The Path Forward

The episode concludes with a sobering reflection on the futility of past U.S. administrations to effectively counter Putin's ambitions. Stent emphasizes that without a clear recognition of Russia's desire for a sphere of influence and a strategic overhaul in supporting Ukraine, the conflict may continue unabated:

“What Putin wants is a recognition by the United States that Russia has a right to a sphere of influence both in the post Soviet space, but now in the former Warsaw Pact countries.” ([11:52])

As the international community grapples with balancing diplomatic engagement and robust support for Ukraine, the episode leaves listeners contemplating the intricate web of geopolitical strategies shaping one of the most pressing conflicts of our time.

Key Takeaways

• Putin’s Endgame: A weakened, demilitarized Ukraine that remains outside NATO, coupled with potential regime change.
• U.S. Policy Shifts: Trump's public criticism of Putin signifies a possible pivot in U.S. strategy, though its efficacy remains uncertain.
• Sanctions and Support: Existing sanctions have limited impact due to evasion; increased military aid to Ukraine may be necessary to alter Russia's calculus.
• Peace Negotiations: Future talks hinge on both Russia's flexibility in demands and the West's unwavering support for Ukraine's sovereignty.

This detailed analysis was brought to you by Scott Detrow on NPR's "Consider This." For more insightful news summaries, subscribe to Consider This+ at plus.npr.org/considerthis.