Three years into his war on Ukraine, what does Putin really want?

Summary

Consider This from NPR: Three Years into His War on Ukraine, What Does Putin Really Want?

Release Date: June 1, 2025

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Introduction

In the June 1, 2025 episode of NPR's "Consider This," host Scott Detrow delves into the enduring conflict in Ukraine, marking its third anniversary. The episode seeks to unravel Russian President Vladimir Putin's true intentions behind the prolonged war, amidst fluctuating international responses and evolving military strategies.

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Recent Developments and U.S. Response

The episode opens with a reflection on the volatile nature of the conflict, highlighted by shifting tones from prominent U.S. figures. Former President Donald Trump recently expressed concern over the ongoing violence in Ukraine, stating at [00:05] “5,000 young people every single week are being killed,” signaling his apprehension over Putin's actions. This marks a notable shift, as Trump, known for his previous affinity towards Putin, now publicly criticizes the Russian leader: “I'm not happy with what Putin's doing. He's killing a lot of people... He's sending rockets into cities and killing people. And I don't like it at all” ([00:38]).

These comments emerged amid Russia's largest aerial attacks on Ukraine since the war's inception, resulting in significant casualties and widespread destruction ([00:23]). The Kremlin has proposed a second round of ceasefire talks in Istanbul; however, skepticism remains high among experts about Putin's sincerity in seeking peace.

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Expert Analysis: Angela Stent on Putin’s Objectives

To gain deeper insight, Scott Detrow interviews Angela Stent, professor emeritus at Georgetown University and author of "Putin's Russia against the West and the Rest." Stent traces the evolution of Putin's goals from the initial 2014 invasion of Crimea to the present-day conflict.

Recovery of Crimea and Destabilization of Ukraine ([03:46]): Stent explains that Putin's original objectives centered on reclaiming Crimea, driven by his purported concerns over NATO's presence in the region. However, NATO had not advanced Ukraine's membership, making the annexation a strategic move to destabilize Ukraine further.

Shifting Goals Over Three Years ([04:20]): Now, three years into the conflict, Stent posits that Putin aims for a Ukraine that is smaller, demilitarized, and committed to never joining NATO. Additionally, he seeks regime change in Kyiv to install a more pro-Russian government. However, the resilience and strengthened capabilities of Ukraine have made these objectives increasingly unattainable.

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NATO and Western Powers: The Broader Geopolitical Landscape

The discussion shifts to NATO's role and its perceived threat from Russia. Stent argues that Putin's NATO objections are more of a façade to mask his true intent, which is primarily centered on controlling Ukraine. She emphasizes that:

“What he's after is he still thinks he can win the war. He wants a Ukraine that's smaller, that's weaker, that's demilitarized...” ([04:30])

Stent also highlights the improbability of permanently restricting Ukraine from NATO membership, especially if NATO continues to exist and expand. The episode underscores the complexities of achieving a lasting ceasefire or peace agreement given these entrenched positions.

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Negotiation Dynamics and U.S. Policy Shifts

President Trump's recent criticisms reflect a potential shift in U.S. policy, though Stent remains cautious about its impact. She notes that while Trump advocates for a "bilateral reset" with Putin, offering economic relationships and lifting sanctions, this approach may inadvertently benefit Russia by keeping negotiations perpetual without compelling Putin to make significant concessions ([07:05]).

Furthermore, Angie Stent discusses the current state of sanctions, revealing their limited effectiveness due to widespread evasion:

“They have imposed costs on the Russian economy, but actually the most severe costs are happening now with low oil prices... There's been huge sanctions evasion.” ([09:07])

A new Senate bill aims to tighten sanctions by targeting countries aiding Russia in circumventing them. However, Stent remains skeptical about whether extended sanctions alone would compel Putin to cease hostilities, advocating instead for increased military support to Ukraine as a more decisive strategy.

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Assessing the Future of Peace Talks

As peace talks loom in Istanbul, critical questions arise about Russia's true intentions and willingness to adjust its demands. Stent suggests monitoring:

1. Russian Demands: Are they adhering to their initial "maximum demands," or showing flexibility?
2. Ukrainian Responses: Is Ukraine open to temporary territorial compromises to sustain current control over key regions?
3. International Commitments: Will Western support for Ukraine intensify, thereby altering the conflict's dynamics?

Stent underscores that genuine progress would require both sides to make concessions, something that has been elusive in past negotiations.

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Conclusion: The Path Forward

The episode concludes with a sobering reflection on the futility of past U.S. administrations to effectively counter Putin's ambitions. Stent emphasizes that without a clear recognition of Russia's desire for a sphere of influence and a strategic overhaul in supporting Ukraine, the conflict may continue unabated:

“What Putin wants is a recognition by the United States that Russia has a right to a sphere of influence both in the post Soviet space, but now in the former Warsaw Pact countries.” ([11:52])

As the international community grapples with balancing diplomatic engagement and robust support for Ukraine, the episode leaves listeners contemplating the intricate web of geopolitical strategies shaping one of the most pressing conflicts of our time.

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Key Takeaways

• Putin’s Endgame: A weakened, demilitarized Ukraine that remains outside NATO, coupled with potential regime change.
• U.S. Policy Shifts: Trump's public criticism of Putin signifies a possible pivot in U.S. strategy, though its efficacy remains uncertain.
• Sanctions and Support: Existing sanctions have limited impact due to evasion; increased military aid to Ukraine may be necessary to alter Russia's calculus.
• Peace Negotiations: Future talks hinge on both Russia's flexibility in demands and the West's unwavering support for Ukraine's sovereignty.

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This detailed analysis was brought to you by Scott Detrow on NPR's "Consider This." For more insightful news summaries, subscribe to Consider This+ at plus.npr.org/considerthis.

Transcript

[Scott Detrow]

What a difference a week can make. One week President Trump is feeling good about a ceasefire in Ukraine.

[Donald Trump]

It's a terrible situation going on over there. 5,000 young people every single week are being killed. So hopefully we did something then. We're going to find out whether or not he's tapping us along or not. And if he is, we'll respond a little bit differently.

[Scott Detrow]

Those comments came amid Russia's massive aerial attacks on Ukraine, the largest since the.

[Michelle Martin]

Start of the war.

[Scott Detrow]

At least 12 people were killed and dozens more injured. And President Trump, who has long championed his relationship with Putin, has made it clear he is not pleased.

[Donald Trump]

I'm not happy with what Putin's doing. He's killing a lot of people. And I don't know what the hell happened to Putin. I've known him a long time, always gotten along with him. But he's sending rockets into cities and killing people. And I don't like it at all.

[Scott Detrow]

The Kremlin has proposed a second round of ceasefire talks in Istanbul, but some experts say don't believe Putin is serious.

[William Taylor]

It doesn't strike me as genuine.

[Scott Detrow]

William Taylor was the ambassador to Ukraine under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama. He spoke to Michelle Martin on Morning Edition this past week.

[William Taylor]

If President Trump allows President Putin to outplay him, to continue to step him along as President Trump has said, and if President Putin kind of wins this game that he seems to be playing, stringing him along, then that will be a major defeat for the United States, major defeat for international security, but a major defeat for President Trump.

[Scott Detrow]

Consider this. President Trump wants to make a deal with Vladimir Putin. Other Western powers want to rally around Ukraine. Three years into this war on Ukraine, what does Putin want? From npr, I'm Scott Detrowed.

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[Scott Detrow]

It's consider this from npr. What does Russian President Vladimir Putin want? It is a question leaders around the world are trying to figure out. He's talking to President Donald Trump about peace talks, but also ordering the most widespread and violent aerial attacks against Ukraine in years. That and other things have led Trump to criticize Putin more and more in public, a step that has been rare over the course of Trump's two terms in office. To sort this out ahead of the latest round of potential peace talks, we called up an expert, Angela Stent. She studied Putin and Russia extensively. She's a professor emeritus at Georgetown University and author of the book Putin's Russia against the West. And with the rest, welcome back.

[Angela Stent]

Thank you. Good to be on your show.

[Scott Detrow]

Let's go back to 2014 here at.

[Expert Commentator]

First and that initial invasion of Crimea.

[Scott Detrow]

What were Vladimir Putin's goals then and how have they changed over the years?

[Angela Stent]

So his goals then were certainly to take back Crimea. He claimed it was because he was concerned about, quote, unquote, NATO ships appearing in Crimea. Even though NATO had in 2008 had said one day Ukraine would join, it had made absolutely no progress in doing that. So it was to take over Crimea and then destabilize Ukraine. And then of course, we get the full scale invasion in February of 2022.

[Scott Detrow]

And as that war has continued and become this strange mix of an old.

[Expert Commentator]

Fashioned trench war and a futuristic drone.

[Scott Detrow]

War, we are continuing to try to figure out what Putin wants out of this. What do you think here in 2025 he's after? Is this all about NATO and NATO borders?

[Angela Stent]

No, that's just a subterfuge. I mean, he didn't object to NATO enlargement when it happened in 2004. He doesn't like NATO because if Ukraine were in NATO, Russia couldn't control. And he wants to be able to control and absorb Ukraine. So what he's after is he still thinks he can win the war. He wants a Ukraine that's smaller, that's weaker, that's demilitarized, that will have to promise never to join NATO. And he wants regime change. He wants President Zelensky to go and they would prefer to have someone in power in Kyiv that's more pro Russian. But given what's happened in Ukraine in the last three years, the that's gonna be impossible to find.

[Scott Detrow]

So when he is insisting that as.

[Expert Commentator]

Part of any agreement, NATO, Ukraine does not join NATO at any point ever, that that's walled off forever. That's More about Ukraine than NATO to you?

[Angela Stent]

It's much more about Ukraine. But of course, we know now the Trump administration has said they will not agree to Ukraine joining NATO as long as they're in office. And the next US Administration may say no too. But the idea that in 2025 you can say that Ukraine will forever be neut, that's not very real. This may be true for a number of years, but not in perpetuity. If NATO still exists.

[Scott Detrow]

I mean, it seems like you're kind of dismissing a lot of the things.

[Expert Commentator]

That Putin at least again says and says is different than actual view he wants out of this war.

[Scott Detrow]

Despite President Trump's scolding on social media.

[Expert Commentator]

In recent weeks, he still seems to by and large support a lot of Russia's end goals.

[Scott Detrow]

Suddenly, what is the strongest card that Ukraine has at this point? Or is Russia in a position to.

[Expert Commentator]

Really dictate the end game of this war at this.

[Angela Stent]

Well, it's not that it's not in a position to dictate the end game, but Ukraine is in a weaker position in as much as the United States is now not supporting Ukraine as the previous administration did. But the Europeans are stepping up. I mean, it'll take a lot more, but they do support Ukraine and they believe that if Russia wins this war, then Europe itself will be threatened and the likelihood of a wider war is there. So I think that's what they're trying to do. And you said in the beginning this is on the one hand very old fashioned trench warfare, but it's also very 21st century electronic warfare, cyber warfare, things like that. And the Ukrainians are getting pretty good. They're building their own drones, they're getting help with electronic warfare. So they may, going forward be able to push the Russians back more than they are at the moment.

[Scott Detrow]

What do you think Putin wants out.

[Expert Commentator]

Of the United States?

[Angela Stent]

So there are two sets of negotiations going on. What Putin wants from the United States is the bilateral reset. I mean, President Trump has offered him something that no US President really since the collapse of the Soviet Union has. They all tried resets, but they failed. But President Trump is saying we can have a fantastic economic relationship. We can end your isolation from the west, you can come back to all of these global fora, and we will lift the sanctions. So those are the things that Putin wants. And I think he still believes he may be able to get this without making any real concessions on the Ukraine war, but stringing this along and having perpetual negotiations. There will be some more negotiations on Monday. Let's see what happens there. The Russians are being very evasive about what it is they're going to present. But that's what he wants. He wants the re Establishment of U.S. russian relations in a way that they haven't been since the 90s.

[Expert Commentator]

And stringing along or as Trump memorably put it on social media, tapping him along. Does that benefit Russia at this point to you?

[Angela Stent]

So I think the Russians are a little perplexed now because if you look at some of the sort of propagandists in the media, they're now criticizing President Trump for being emotional, for being volatile and things like, so they're concerned about what's happening and that's why they keep dangling things like, okay, let's sit down and negotiate to prevent him from in fact, either imposing sanctions. And there's a very tough sanctions bill in Congress. Senator Graham and Senator Blumenthal were in Kyiv on Friday promising that if Russia didn't improve its conduct in these negotiations, that sanctions bill would be imposed. They don't want that sanctions bill. They're trying to prevent that.

[Expert Commentator]

We've talked about sanctions a few times.

[Scott Detrow]

What's the best way to think about.

[Expert Commentator]

Sanctions from your point of view?

[Scott Detrow]

Have they worked? Have they weakened Russia because this is what, three years in of sanctions and the war is continuing at the same.

[Expert Commentator]

Pace it always has?

[Angela Stent]

Well, they certainly haven't worked. If they were supposed to change Putin's calculus. They have imposed costs on the Russian economy, but actually the most severe costs are happening now with low oil prices. And if the low oil prices continue and Russia's major revenue is from the sale of hydro carbons, that would be much more serious. The problem is that there's been huge sanctions evasion. So part of this Senate bill that might be passed next week, it's veto proof, I think it has 81 members supporting it would be to punish countries that are still trading and buying Russian oil and to punish the people who help the sanctions evasion. But that's all. It's very tricky. And that's the reason really why they haven't worked the way they were supposed to is because so many countries are helping Russia evade them.

[Expert Commentator]

And do you think an extended round like we're talking about, do you think that would change it or do you think it's still there's a cost, but there's a workaround.

[Angela Stent]

I mean, I think it would impose more costs on Russia, but I'm not sure that it would persuade Putin that he has to end the war. What would persuade him much More would be if the Trump administration were willing to give more support, financial support, to Ukraine and to sell it the weapons it desperately needs, like the Patriot batteries for their air defense. I think that's if Russia really thought that it was being challenged more on the battlefield. I think that could change Putin's calculus.

[Expert Commentator]

So that's what matters from the US Much more than whatever Trump posts.

[Angela Stent]

I think so, yeah, that would be. Yeah. I mean, whatever he posts and of course he's criticized Putin, but if there's no action, it doesn't really have any consequences.

[Expert Commentator]

Like you said, peace talks are allegedly supposed to resume in Istanbul this upcoming week.

[Scott Detrow]

Whether it's this round or the next round, what are the big questions you have?

[Expert Commentator]

What will you be looking for to get a sense of whether Russia is serious in any way about these talks?

[Angela Stent]

Well, I'd be looking at what are the Russian demands? Are they changing or are they still the maximum demands? They were supposed to present their memorandum of terms before the meeting. That hasn't happened. The Ukrainians, in fact, have presented theirs. So it's whether Russia is willing to make any modification to its maximum demands. And then of course, whether the Ukrainians are willing to do that too, because obviously they've rejected most of what Russia has suggested. Although it's quite possible that Ukraine might accept some kind of a territorial compromise for the moment, but as long as they can continue to control those areas in the four so called annexed territories that Ukraine in fact still controls.

[Expert Commentator]

From the American point of view, many presidents have tried wildly different approaches with Vladimir Putin over the last two decades. None of them seem to have really worked.

[Scott Detrow]

Why do you think it's been so.

[Expert Commentator]

Hard for any American president to rein in Vladimir Putin?

[Angela Stent]

Because what Putin wants is a recognition by the United States that Russia has a right to a sphere of influence both in the post Soviet space, but now in the former Warsaw Pact countries. In December of 21, two treaties were presented to the US and to NATO in the run up to the war. And they essentially demanded that NATO return to the borders it had before the first enlargement when Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic joined. And that's what Putin has always wants. He's wanted, in the words of one Russian expert at equal partnership of unequals. And he hasn't gotten there.

[Scott Detrow]

Angela Stent is a professor emeritus at Georgetown and author of the book Putin's Russia against the west and with the Rest. Thank you for taking the time with us today.

[Angela Stent]

Thank you.

[Scott Detrow]

This episode was produced by Mark Rivers. It was edited by John Ketchum and Sarah Robbins. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenig. It's consider this from NPR. I'm Scott Detrow.

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