Trump and Putin are set to meet. Do they want the same thing?

Summary

Consider This from NPR: "Trump and Putin are set to meet. Do they want the same thing?"
Release Date: August 12, 2025
Host: Mary Louise Kelly

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Introduction & Upcoming Summit

In the latest episode of NPR's Consider This, host Mary Louise Kelly delves into the anticipated meeting between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, scheduled to take place in Alaska on Friday. The primary objective of this summit is to negotiate an end to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. Kelly sets the stage by highlighting Trump's confidence in his deal-making prowess:

Donald Trump [00:14]: "And at the end of that meeting, probably in the first two minutes, I'll know exactly whether it [a deal] can be."

Historical Context: The Helsinki Summit of 2018

Kelly provides a retrospective look at the 2018 Helsinki summit, where Trump and Putin met under the shadow of the Robert Mueller investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election. Just days before that summit, Mueller had indicted 12 Russian military officers for conspiring to influence the election.

During the Helsinki summit, President Trump appeared to soften his stance on Russia, casting doubt on the U.S. intelligence community's findings regarding election interference:

Donald Trump [01:33]: "I don't see any reason why it would be."

This shift raised eyebrows and set a precedent for future interactions between the two leaders.

Trump's Strategy and Confidence

Fast forward to the forthcoming Alaska meeting, Trump maintains his assured demeanor about securing a swift agreement. He emphasizes his ability to "read" the other side and reach a consensus quickly:

Donald Trump [07:00]: "He views international relations as basically being the personal relations between heads of state."

However, Kelly questions whether Trump's approach, reminiscent of his initial engagement with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, is effective in the complex geopolitical landscape surrounding Ukraine.

Insights from John Bolton

To gain deeper insights, Kelly interviews former National Security Advisor John Bolton, who was present during the Helsinki summit. Bolton offers a critical perspective on Trump's tactics and the potential implications of the Alaska meeting:

John Bolton [02:12]: "He views international relations as basically being the personal relations between heads of state."

Bolton warns that by hosting Putin on U.S. soil, Trump may inadvertently grant Putin a platform to advance his own agenda. He elaborates on the risks, suggesting that Putin might present a peace plan that appears reasonable to Trump but is unacceptable to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. This maneuver could place Zelensky in a difficult position, undermining Ukraine's stance without direct confrontation.

The Absence of Zelensky

A significant point of discussion is Ukrainian President Zelensky's exclusion from the summit. Bolton underscores the challenges this poses:

John Bolton [06:33]: "If Putin can convince Trump that he's sincere whether he is or not, and Trump then takes the deal to Zelensky, who rejects it, he can say, I've done everything again."

Zelensky's absence raises concerns about the legitimacy and efficacy of any agreements reached, as Ukraine remains a central stakeholder in the conflict.

Potential Outcomes and Risks

Bolton outlines the possible scenarios stemming from the Trump-Putin meeting:

1. Successful Agreement: If Trump perceives Putin's peace proposal as genuine, he might endorse it and seek to present it to Zelensky. However, without Zelensky's input, the agreement's viability remains questionable.

2. Public Backlash: Should the deal fall apart, Trump could deflect blame by attributing the failure to Putin, thereby distancing himself from the unsuccessful negotiation.

3. Cutting U.S. Military Assistance: Another risk is the potential withdrawal of U.S. support to Ukraine, which could significantly impact the war's dynamics.

Bolton emphasizes that while Trump perceives minimal risks due to his confidence, the broader geopolitical ramifications could be substantial.

Vladimir Putin's Perspective

From Putin's vantage point, the summit presents an opportunity to advance his long-term objective of reestablishing Russian influence over Ukraine and potentially other regions. By engaging Trump directly, Putin aims to secure a favorable deal that diminishes U.S. involvement and support for Ukraine.

John Bolton [10:28]: "If he [Putin] can convince Trump that he legitimately wants peace... it could put Zelensky and Ukraine in an untenable position."

Conclusion

Mary Louise Kelly wraps up the discussion by summarizing the intricate dynamics at play. The upcoming Trump-Putin summit carries significant weight, with potential consequences for U.S.-Russia relations and the future of the Ukraine conflict. The absence of Ukraine's leadership and the contrasting motivations of both leaders add layers of complexity to what could unfold in Alaska.

Key Takeaways:

• The Trump-Putin meeting aims to broker peace in Ukraine but lacks direct Ukrainian involvement.
• Historical precedents, like the Helsinki summit, indicate unpredictable outcomes.
• Insights from John Bolton highlight the strategic risks and potential geopolitical shifts resulting from the summit.
• The efficacy of Trump's deal-making approach remains uncertain amidst complex international interests.

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This summary captures the essence of the NPR Consider This episode, providing a comprehensive overview of the key discussions and insights for listeners and non-listeners alike.

Transcript

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Come Friday, Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will meet in Alaska. The ultimate goal? Ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. At a recent press conference, President Trump said he would know pretty quickly which way it would go.

[Donald Trump]

And at the end of that meeting, probably in the first two minutes, I'll know exactly whether or not a deal can be.

[John Bolton]

How will you know that?

[Donald Trump]

Because that's what I do. I make deals.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

But meetings between Trump and Putin are often unpredictable. Seven years ago, the two presidents held a notable summit in Helsinki, Finland. Ladies and gentlemen, you might remember, the other major story dominating the headlines back in 2018 was Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 US election. Days before the Helsinki summit, Mueller announced charges against several Russian nationals.

[Donald Trump]

The indictment charges 12 Russian military officers.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

By name for conspiring to interfere with the 2016 presidential presidential election. Hours before the summit, President Trump had posted on social media that the relationship between the US And Russia had, quote, never been worse. Then the two presidents met behind closed doors for two hours. When they emerged, President Trump appeared to have changed his tune about Putin and Russia, going so far as to question the US Intelligence community's finding that Russia had worked to influence the 2016 presidential election.

[Donald Trump]

People came to me. Dan Coats came to me and some others. They said they think it's Russia. I have President Putin. He just said it's not Russia. I will say this. I don't see any reason why it would be.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Ambassador John Bolton, then President Trump's national security adviser, was with the president in Helsinki and this time in Alaska. Bolton says the SNAP summit is another example of the way the president likes to do things.

[John Bolton]

I think this is Trump believing that he can read the other side. He views international relations as basically being the personal relations between heads of state.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Consider this. Will Trump be able to use his relationship with Putin to get what he wants, or will Putin use Trump to get what he wants? From npr, I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

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[Mary Louise Kelly]

It's Consider this from npr. Details are still scarce, but Putin and Trump are set to meet this Friday in Alaska. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was not invited. Well, I want to bring in someone who knows firsthand how these summits can go to John Bolton was serving as President Trump's national security adviser during the Helsinki Summit back in 2018. Ambassador Bolton, great to speak with you again.

[John Bolton]

Well, thanks for having me.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

So what lessons did you take from that summit in Helsinki that perhaps Trump might wish to heed this time around?

[John Bolton]

Well, this time Trump is more the central actor. I think he views this as a potential way of getting a resolution to the war in Ukraine that could lead to a Nobel Peace Prize. But it's a very advantageous meeting for Putin as well. I think he realizes he probably intentionally or unintentionally pushed Trump a little bit too far and not agreeing to a ceasefire over the past six months. And he's going to try and reel him back in. He's obviously presented some elements of a plan, at least to Steve Witkoff, who brought them back in some confusion from Moscow, the envoy who was just meeting.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

With President Putin in Moscow. Go on.

[John Bolton]

So we'll probably see a more extended version of that plan and Trump will decide whether it's something that he likes and whether he'll present it to Zelensky.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

I gather you believe that Trump has already made a mistake by virtue of holding this summit on US Soil. And I'm curious why, because that would seem to give Trump something of home court advantage.

[John Bolton]

Well, I think he's giving an international pariah leader of a rogue state which invaded Ukraine unprovoked and has been excluded from these kinds of diplomatic encounters for years now and is giving him a platform and an opportunity that Trump may not realize for Putin to try and work his KGB training to get an advantage here. If Putin convinces Trump that he legitimately wants peace, but presents a plan that's unacceptable to Zelensky, by having the first mover advantage, which is what this summit gives Putin, it could put Zelensky and Ukraine in an untenable position.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

How big a deal is it that Zelensky won't be there? Can you end a war being fought in Ukraine without Ukraine at the table?

[John Bolton]

Look, I think earlier this year we saw Trump and Putin speaking without consulting Zelensky, and Putin actually made a lot of progress there. Remember what Putin's objective here is not to reach a peace agreement. He's trying to recreate the Russian empire. And if he can back Trump away from providing US Military assistance to Ukraine, including critically, military intelligence, that would be a huge victory from his point of.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

View to the point that President Trump says he will, and I quote, probably in the first two minutes, know whether a peace deal can be reached, that he will be able to read Putin that fast. What do you think?

[John Bolton]

Sure. Well, that's the way Trump does things. He doesn't. He's not going to read extensive briefing papers for this summit, which, by the way, is probably the fastest summit put together in recent history, certainly than I can recall. Basically nine days from when the idea came up in the Witkoff meeting, one.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Week from when we all learned about.

[John Bolton]

It, when they announced it, from when he announced it. So I think this is Trump believing that he can read the other side. He views international relations as basically being the relations between heads of state. He did essentially the same thing with Kim Jong Un the first time he met with him in Singapore in the first term and came out later and said the two of them had fallen in love.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

So it seems pretty clear what a win would look like for Trump. He secures some kind of agreement, he gets to walk away and say, that was a great meeting and I've ended the war and let me claim my Nobel Peace Prize. What are the risks for Trump at this summit?

[John Bolton]

Well, I think the risks are actually pretty minimal if he thinks he's got with his own modifications. I think one thing Putin will try and do is get buy in from Trump by if Trump gives a suggestion or a change, Putin will do everything he can to agree to it. He'd love for Trump to come out of this meeting thinking it's his plan, that would be the ideal outcome. But the risk is, if he says Putin's not interested, he can pull out of the diplomatic negotiations, he can say, pox on both your houses. And as I mentioned, he can cut off US Military assistance to Ukraine. On Monday, Trump was once again very critical of Zelensky for keeping the war going. You know, just for senseless reasons like maintaining Ukrainian freedom and independence.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Although, is there a challenge for Trump here in that he seems to want a deal more than Putin does?

[John Bolton]

Well, I think you can't get a Nobel Peace Prize unless you get the deal. But from Trump's point of view, if he thinks that, that if Putin convinces him that he's sincere whether he is or not, and Trump then takes the deal to Zelensky, who rejects it, he can say, I've done everything again. On Monday, he referred to the war as Biden's war and that he didn't even commit himself to participate in a meeting between Zelensky and Putin, which he repeated endlessly during the 2024 campaign. That he would do. He'd get the two of them in a room and solve it in 24 hours. He's even backed away from that now.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Can you tell from the outside now, but can you tell who Trump is listening to on this? Who is advising him on what the strategy should be going in?

[John Bolton]

Well, I assume anybody who's in the senior ranks in the national security community should be, but I'm not aware that they're having NSC meetings on this or that Trump's really listening to anybody other than Steve Witkoff, who took the wrong message back, apparently from what Putin intended at their meeting last Wednesday and how.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Has had zero diplomatic experience until this.

[John Bolton]

Year, but he's a friend of Trump's.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Game this up from Vladimir Putin's point of view, understanding none of us are inside Vladimir Putin's head. What are the risks for him?

[John Bolton]

I think his main risk is that Trump leaves the meeting unalterably opposed to what Putin has come with. If Putin can convince him that he's sincere, that he wants peace and that his plan is reasonable, then I think he's brought Trump over to his side again. It's the two old friends, as Trump thought they were going into this second term, have reached an agreement that looks reasonable, and now the Europeans, and particularly Ukraine should accept it.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

That is former National Security Advisor John Bolton. John Bolton, thank you.

[John Bolton]

Thanks for having me.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

This episode was produced by Katherine Fink & Megan Limited. It was edited by Courtney Dorning. Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun. It's Consider this from npr. I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

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