Trump's tariffs are (still) coming

Summary

Consider This from NPR: "Trump's Tariffs Are (Still) Coming" – Detailed Summary

Release Date: August 1, 2025

In this episode of NPR's "Consider This," hosts delve deep into the ongoing saga of President Donald Trump's tariff policies, exploring their implementation, impact on businesses and the economy, public reaction, and the administration's responses to emerging challenges.

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1. Tariff Implementation and Delays

Ailsa Chang opens the discussion by highlighting the imminent activation of larger tariffs on imports from numerous countries. Initially slated for August 1st, last-minute changes delayed the implementation to August 7th.

• Press Secretary Caroline Levitt (00:15): Announced the activation of reciprocal rates effective August 1st.
• Ailsa Chang (00:19): Notes Trump's executive order shifting the tariff effective date to August 7th, causing continued uncertainty for businesses.

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2. Business Impact and Uncertainty

The delayed tariffs have left businesses in a state of flux, grappling with uncertainty rather than the tariffs themselves.

• Shelby Somerville, Greater Louisville, Inc. (00:52): Emphasizes that while businesses can adapt to the tariffs, the constant changes every few days create significant uncertainty, making long-term planning difficult.

Ethan Karp, CEO of Magnet (01:15), provides a nuanced perspective:

"Some of them have gotten new business and they're very optimistic. Some of them have lost business because it's export and the exports were being taxed... But nobody's locked in those orders because nobody knows for sure what the tariffs are going to be." (01:32)

This uncertainty affects both domestic manufacturers and exporters, leading to hesitancy in securing new orders.

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3. Economic Rationale and Mixed Outcomes

The administration's stated goals for the tariffs are to support U.S. manufacturers by making their products more competitive against foreign imports. However, early indicators present a mixed picture.

• Donald Trump (06:53): Acknowledges the tariffs may be backfiring by highlighting declining manufacturing jobs and rising prices in consumer goods like toys and appliances, which contribute to inflation.

Ethan Karp (08:03) adds a critical view:

"They can still slow growth. They can still increase prices. You can still do real damage." (08:03)

This suggests that the intended economic boosts may be offset by negative side effects, such as increased consumer costs and slowed economic growth.

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4. Latest Economic Data and Market Reactions

The episode discusses recent economic reports that paint a concerning picture of the U.S. economy amidst the tariff implementation.

• Ailsa Chang (04:25) references a jobs report showing weaker-than-expected job growth:

  "US employers added just 73,000 jobs last month, which was a bigger slowdown than economists projected." (04:25)

This disappointing report led to a significant drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, falling 542 points (1.25%).

Scott Horsley explains the broader implications:

"The weakness in the job markets likely put more pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates." (04:25)

However, the Fed remains cautious due to rising inflation tied partly to the tariffs.

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5. Public and Political Reactions

Public sentiment towards the tariffs and the administration's economic policies appears increasingly negative.

• Danielle Kurtzleben (07:24): Reports a decline in Trump's economic approval rating to around -12 points. Additionally, Americans express skepticism specifically about the efficacy of tariffs.

Insights from Scott Lincecum of the Cato Institute reinforce this skepticism:

"No matter what size the effects of these tariffs are, the tariffs are still an unforced error." (08:03)

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6. GDP Growth and Labor Market Concerns

New GDP data indicates that while the economy grew in the first half of the year, the pace was significantly slower than in previous years.

• Scott Horsley (08:34): Summarizes the GDP growth impact:

"Overall, the US Economy did grow in the first six months of the year, but only about half as fast as in each of the two previous years." (08:34)

Additionally, Trump's policies on immigration are contributing to labor shortages in key industries, as fewer immigrants are available or willing to work, and efforts to increase native-born workforce participation have yet to show substantial results.

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7. Presidential Response and Controversy

In response to the disappointing jobs report, President Trump took unprecedented steps by targeting the credibility of economic data.

• Danielle Kurtzleben (09:29): Describes Trump's decision to fire Dr. Erica McIntar, the Labor Statistics commissioner, accusing her of manipulating job numbers to his detriment.

"Trump here is really just casting doubt on economic reality, on a shared reality. And the consequences could be huge." (09:24)

Donald Trump counters these accusations by emphasizing the robustness of factual data:

"The President can take his Sharpie to the hurricane map, but it does not change the shape of the storm." (10:22)

This move has raised concerns about undermining the integrity of economic data and the potential long-term impacts on public trust.

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8. Conclusion and Ongoing Developments

The episode concludes by acknowledging the multifaceted and evolving nature of Trump's tariff policies. While aimed at strengthening the U.S. economy and manufacturing, the implementation has led to increased uncertainty, mixed economic outcomes, and political controversy.

Ailsa Chang wraps up by reiterating the complexities of the situation:

"Trump's tariffs are still coming, but how are his plans panning out so far?" (02:07)

As the administration continues to negotiate trade deals and implement new tariffs, the full impact of these policies remains to be seen, with ongoing debates about their efficacy and consequences for the American economy.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Shelby Somerville (00:52): "The uncertainty... is really the uncertainty. So businesses can adapt to taxes and tariffs, but what they can adapt to is something that's changing, you know, every 90 days or every other day."

• Ethan Karp (01:32): "Some of them have gotten new business and they're very optimistic... But nobody's locked in those orders because nobody knows for sure what the tariffs are going to be."

• Donald Trump (06:53): "US Factories have been cutting jobs in each of the last three months... pushing inflation in the wrong direction."

• Ethan Karp (08:03): "They can still slow growth. They can still increase prices. You can still do real damage."

• Donald Trump (10:22): "The President can take his Sharpie to the hurricane map, but it does not change the shape of the storm."

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This comprehensive summary captures the critical elements discussed in the episode, providing listeners with a clear understanding of the ongoing developments related to Trump's tariff policies and their broader economic and political implications.

Transcript

[Ailsa Chang]

So today, Friday was the day, the day that larger tariffs on imports from a long list of countries were going to kick in. The Trump administration was clear about that as late as Thursday afternoon. Here's press secretary Caroline Levitt.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

Yes, tomorrow, August 1st, the reciprocal rates.

[Scott Horsley]

Will be going into effect.

[Ailsa Chang]

On Wednesday, there was this social media post from President Trump. The August 1 deadline is the August 1 deadline. It stands strong and will not be any extended. And then it was extended. Thursday night. The president signed an executive order setting new tariff rates that will go into effect August 7th. So businesses are still bracing for more punishing import taxes, first announced back in April to potentially take effect. Here's how Shelby Somerville explains the predicament. She's with Greater Louisville, Inc. The regional chamber of commerce.

[Shelby Somerville]

A lot of the proposed or talked about tariffs would have implications on a lot of the businesses in our area. But what's even harder than adapting to that sort of policy change or tariff is really the uncertainty. So businesses can adapt to taxes and tariffs, but what they can adapt to is something that's changing, you know, every 90 days or every other day.

[Ailsa Chang]

The tariffs are supposed to help US Manufacturers by making their products more price competitive with foreign imports. Ethan Karp is the CEO of Magnet. That's a company that advises manufacturers in Northeast Ohio. And he says some of them are excited.

[Ethan Karp]

Some of them have gotten new business and they're very optimistic. Some of them have lost business because it's export and the exports were being taxed. And most of them are in the tire kicker stage. They are being asked if they can provide new American business. But nobody's locked in those orders because nobody knows for sure what the tariffs are going to be.

[Ailsa Chang]

And the rates could change again in the next week because the White House says Trump is continuing to negotiate, quote, tailor made trade deals with individual countries. Trump said Thursday that it's going great.

[Donald Trump]

We have made a few deals today that are excellent deals for the country.

[Ailsa Chang]

You know, we're taking in literally trillions of dollars for the country. This is making our country very rich and respected. Again, consider this. Trump's tariffs are still coming, but how are his plans panning out so far? From npr, I'm Ailsa Chang.

[NPR Planet Money]

This summer on Planet Money summer school, we're learning about political economy. We're getting into the nitty gritty of what government does with things like trade, taxes, immigration and healthcare.

[Ethan Karp]

So politics and economics, which are taught.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

Separately, they shouldn't be separated at all. I think you have to understand one.

[Ethan Karp]

To really appreciate the other.

[NPR Planet Money]

So what is the right amount of government in our lives. Tune into Planet Money Summer School from npr. Wherever you get your podcasts.

[Scott Horsley]

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[Mariel Segarra]

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[Ailsa Chang]

It's Consider this from npr. We got a new economic data point Friday morning to throw into this discussion of President Trump's tariffs. New Labor Department numbers showed that job growth slowed sharply this spring. Friday afternoon, the president said that he was firing the head of the government agency that produced that report. We're going to talk through all of this now with White House correspondent Daniel Kurtzleben and economics correspondent Scott Horsley. Hello to both of you.

[Scott Horsley]

Hey, Elsa.

[Ailsa Chang]

Okay, Scott, let's start with this morning's jobs report, which was weaker than forecasters expected. Right. What does it show exactly?

[Donald Trump]

Yeah, it shows US employers added just 73,000 jobs last month, which was a bigger slowdown than economists projected. More importantly, we got revised figures for May and June that pretty much erased nearly all the job growth that had been tallied for those two months. So when you take it together, this shows the labor market was a lot weaker in the spring and early summer than we had thought. And the news rattled investors who were already nervous about those rising tariffs. The Dow Jones industrial average tumbled 542 points, or about one and a quarter percent. The weakness in the job markets likely put more pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which it did not do earlier this week when policymakers met. But at the same time, the Fed has to keep a wary eye on inflation, which has been creeping up partly as a result of those Trump tariffs.

[Ailsa Chang]

Right. And Danielle, for the most part, this new round of tariffs, they're not set to take effect for another week. Right. So what's in store at that point?

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

Well, higher tariffs pretty much across the board are in store Yesterday, Trump signed two executive orders on tariffs. One of them said that as of Today, tariffs of 35% would apply to many goods from Canada, one of our biggest trading partners. Then another order said that goods from many other countries will soon be taxed at 15% or more. In the case of Brazil, it goes as high as 50%. And those tariffs, like you said, are set to take effect next week. Now, that means, since there's that time lag, that these new tariffs could still change. After all, Trump announces new tariffs all the time, and he also announces deals before they're even done all the time. So more could happen.

[Ailsa Chang]

More could happen. What do you think the President is trying to achieve ultimately with all of these tariffs?

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

Well, he's listed a few aims this year. He has said that tariffs are supposed to boost revenue, bolster manufacturing, and also encourage foreign countries to change policies on things like, for example, controlling the flow of illegal drugs. But earlier this summer, I was talking to one business leader and he said that to him, Trump isn't trying to have a coherent strategy with his tariffs. Rather, it's just that Trump likes tariffs as a tool. Tariffs are a hammer. So he sees every problem as a nail. And it's true that Trump does seem to be most comfortable in a tariff negotiation or any negotiation. He uses the massive US Economy to get leverage. And also he sees negotiations as zero sum. But in international trade, ideally, trade agreements are supposed to be mutually beneficial.

[Donald Trump]

The tariffs also seem to be backfiring, at least so far when it comes to boosting manufacturing. US Factories have been cutting jobs in each of the last three months. Tariffs are already showing up in higher prices as well for things like toys and appliances that we import a lot of. And that's pushing inflation in the wrong direction, which is not ideal for a president who campaigned on a promise of bringing prices down.

[Ailsa Chang]

Okay, well, with all of these consequences, Daniel, how would you say Americans are reacting to Trump's tariffs? Not well.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

His overall economic approval rating has fallen off since he took office back in January. That that rating was slightly positive according to the poll aggregator Real Clear Polling. Now, that rating has been negative for a while now. Right now, it's at around negative 12 points. And we've also seen other polls showing that Americans are just doubtful about tariffs specifically. Now, right now, we don't know how big the effect of tariffs will be. We're going to see that play out yet. But I talked to Scott Lincecum. He's a trade expert at the libertarian leaning Cato Institute, and he told me that no matter what size the effects of these tariffs are, the tariffs are still an unforced error.

[Ethan Karp]

They can still slow growth. They can still increase prices. You can still do real damage.

[Donald Trump]

Right.

[Ethan Karp]

You know, I can cut off my pinky and still live a full life, but that doesn't mean cutting off my pinky was a good idea.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

And to continue, maybe torture that metaphor, the effects of these tariffs, we're still going to see if the effects are bigger than pinky sized.

[Ailsa Chang]

Indeed. Well, Scott, I mean, we also got a new GDP report this week. What do you think that report tells us about how the President's economic agenda is working out right now?

[Donald Trump]

Well, tariffs caused a big swing in trade, which depressed GDP early in the year and then made it look somewhat better in the springtime. Overall, the US Economy did grow in the first six months of the year, but only about half as fast as in each of the two previous years. Now, of course, tariffs are just one part of the President's agenda. Trump is also cracking down on immigration, and that seems to be driving some people underground. The share of immigrants in the US who are either working or looking for work has fallen pretty sharply in the last year. That might be making it harder for employers in industries like construction or restaurants or home health care that rely on a lot of immigrant workers to find the people they need. The administration hopes to fill those jobs by getting more native born workers to come off the sidelines and join the workforce. However, so far, there's not much evidence that that's happening.

[Ailsa Chang]

Okay, well, given all of these ripple effects, Danielle, how is President Trump talking about all of this?

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

Well, today's jobs report clearly got under his skin. And rather than address the slowing job growth, he instead just decided to attack the messenger. He went on social media and posted that he was firing Dr. Erica McIntar. She's the commissioner of Labor Statistics. Now, she was a Biden appointee. And he accuses her, therefore, of manipulating the jobs numbers to hurt him and Republicans. And really, this is an astounding moment. Now, first of all, we've seen no evidence that she manipulated anything. But furthermore, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, it's just staffed by numbers, people who, those of us who are reporters and deal with them, we know they keep their work apolitical. And Republican and Democratic administrations have long trusted jobs numbers. So Trump here is really just casting doubt on economic reality, on a shared reality. And the consequences could be huge.

[Donald Trump]

You know, the President can take his Sharpie to the hurricane map, but it does not change the shape of the storm.

[Ailsa Chang]

That is NPR's Scott Horsley and Danielle Kurtzleben. Thank you to both of you.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

Thank you.

[Donald Trump]

Good to be with you.

[Ailsa Chang]

This episode was produced by Connor Donovan and Jason Fuller, with audio engineering by Simon Laszlo Jansen. It was edited by John Ketchum, Rafael Nahm and Sami Yenigun. Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun. And a message to our Consider this Plus listeners and thank you for supporting the work of NPR journalists and helping keep public radio strong. Supporters also hear every episode without messages from sponsors. Learn more at plus.NPR.org It's Consider this from NPR. I'm Ailsa Chang.

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