Understanding China’s ambition to expand its nuclear program

Summary

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Episode Overview

Podcast: Consider This from NPR
Episode Title: Understanding China’s ambition to expand its nuclear program
Air Date: May 10, 2026
Host: Emily Feng

This episode explores China's recent ambitious expansion of its nuclear arsenal amidst ongoing US-China tensions. Through interviews with diplomats, defense experts, and nuclear historians, the episode examines how historical events, shifting US foreign policy, and President Xi Jinping's leadership have shaped China's nuclear strategy—and what these changes mean for global security and the risk of a new arms race.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Background: US-China Relations at a Crossroads

• Upcoming Presidential Meeting: President Trump will make his first visit to China in nearly a decade to meet with President Xi Jinping. This high-level summit underscores the complicated personal and political relationship between the two leaders.
  • "It's the first visit from a US President in nearly a decade. The last one was in 2017, during Trump's first term in office." — Emily Feng (00:06)

2. Profile of Xi Jinping and Diplomatic Dynamics

• Xi as a Leader: Nicolas Burns, former US Ambassador to China, describes Xi as highly experienced, intelligent, and typically "all business" in meetings—a leader who has worked with multiple US presidents.
  • "He is very experienced. He's been president since 2012... He is a listener. He's, I think, highly intelligent. He will be steely-eyed... All business." — Nicholas Burns (01:16)

3. History and Evolution of China’s Nuclear Program

• Early Motivations: China built its first nuclear weapon in the 1960s, initially to deter the Soviet Union rather than the US.
  • "Our nation successfully explodes its second nuclear bomb in the sky over the western part of our country..." — Hui Zhang (04:03)
  • "So China, they focus on the other target, Soviet Union." — M. Taylor Fravel (04:17)
• US Trust Wanes: Trust in the US started eroding after the 1999 bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade and the 2002 US withdrawal from the anti-ballistic missile treaty.
  • "Trust in US restraint, however, started waning in 1999 during a NATO air campaign..." — Emily Feng (04:37)

4. Xi Jinping’s Military Modernization

• A Shift in Strategy (2012 Onward): Under Xi, China began modernizing and expanding its nuclear capabilities in response to a reassessment of US intentions.
  • "China's current leader Xi Jinping came to power, and he accelerated an ambitious military modernization campaign, including of China's nuclear capabilities." — Emily Feng (05:14)
• US Policy as a Driver: 2018’s US National Defense Strategy naming China as a strategic competitor catalyzed Chinese efforts.
  • "For China's Xi Jinping, the final clincher was in 2018, when the US National Defense Strategy... designated China as the US's strategic competitor." — Xie Peixue via Hui Zhang (05:32)

5. Scale and Nature of China’s Arsenal

• Current Numbers: Pentagon estimates put China's arsenal at around 600 warheads, up from about 200 a decade ago but still far less than US or Russia.
  • "Today, the Pentagon estimates Beijing's nuclear arsenal to be around 600 warheads. That's more than twice what it had a decade ago." — Emily Feng (06:16)
• Modernization and Diversification:
  • Developing land, sea, and air launch capabilities (mobile trucks, submarines, missile silos).
    • "China's also fielding submarine launch ballistic missiles so they have subs that have missiles on them..." — M. Taylor Fravel (07:28)
  • Construction of missile silo fields with "launch on warning" capability—improving deterrence but increasing risks.
    • "It's part of Beijing's effort to create what nuclear experts call launch on warning—the ability for China to fire back devastating nuclear missiles even before they're hit themselves." — Emily Feng (07:43)

6. Risks and Reactions

• Escalatory Cycle: The US expands missile defense and advanced strike capabilities, prompting further Chinese expansion—a classic security dilemma.
  • "From the Chinese perspective, they saw the US as more threatening. You know, from a US Perspective, they looked at China and its massive, you know, really rapid military modernization began to view China as much more threatening." — M. Taylor Fravel (09:59)
• Narrowing Decision Windows: Launch-on-warning capabilities could "dramatically shrink the window of decision-making" and raise the risk of a catastrophic mistake.
  • "This will dramatically shrink the window of decision making and increase the risk of a nuclear war breaking out by miscalculation." — Xie Peixue via Hui Zhang (08:10)

7. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Xi Jinping's Approach

• "He will be steely-eyed, not very perhaps outwardly friendly in most of these meetings. All business." — Nicholas Burns (01:30)

On China’s Sense of Threat

• "Washington gradually shed its old illusions about China and started treating its like the number one threat to security." — Hui Zhang quoting Xie Peixue (05:54)

On Risks of New Capabilities

• "This will dramatically shrink the window of decision making and increase the risk of a nuclear war breaking out by miscalculation." — Hui Zhang (08:10)

On the Security Dilemma

• "The tricky thing about security dilemmas... is they are much easier to slip into than to get out of." — Emily Feng (10:10)

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Timestamps for Critical Segments

| Timestamp | Segment Description | |-----------|--------------------| | 00:06 | Trump’s visit to China, historical context of US-China summitry | | 01:16 | Nicholas Burns on Xi Jinping’s leadership style | | 03:47 | Recap of China’s nuclear launch in the 1960s and initial motivations | | 04:37 | Key events leading to distrust of the US (embassy bombing, treaties) | | 05:14 | Xi Jinping’s ascent and push for military modernization | | 06:16 | Estimates of China’s current nuclear arsenal size and ambitions | | 06:50 | Modernization details: mobile missiles, submarines, silos | | 07:43 | Launch-on-warning and new missile silos explained | | 08:10 | Risks of accidental escalation and narrow decision windows | | 09:41 | Discovery of new nuclear sites and concern over escalation spiral | | 09:59 | Fravel explains the classic security dilemma | | 10:10 | Concluding thoughts on escalation and risk |

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Summary & Takeaways

• China’s nuclear expansion is rooted in both historical grievances and more recent shifts in US foreign policy.
• Xi Jinping’s tenure has seen unprecedented military—and nuclear—modernization in the name of security and parity.
• The US and China now face a mutual suspicion loop, where each side’s attempt to shore up defenses spurs more buildup in the other—a classic, hard-to-break security dilemma.
• New technologies like missile silos and “launch on warning” postures raise the stakes, making catastrophic errors more plausible.
• As the US and China enter another tense phase in their relationship, understanding these dynamics is crucial for avoiding escalation or miscalculation.

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For listeners wanting a concise but comprehensive grasp of China’s nuclear ambitions—and the stakes for global security—this episode provides clear historical context, expert analysis, and warnings for the future.

Transcript

[Emily Feng]

It's consider this where every day we go deep on one big news story. In just a few days, President Trump will meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing. It's the first visit from a US President in nearly a decade. The last one was in 2017, during Trump's first term in office. Xi welcomed Trump with a grand ceremony. A Chinese military band performed the US national anthem as the two leaders stood side by side on a sprawling red carpet cascading down the steps of Beijing's Great hall of the People. Later, President Trump lavished praise on President Xi and his country.

[M. Taylor Fravel]

My feeling toward you is an incredibly warm one. As we said, there's great chemistry and

[Hui Zhang]

I think we're going to do tremendous

[M. Taylor Fravel]

things for both China and for the United States.

[Emily Feng]

President Trump has long boasted about his strong personal relationship with Xi, despite the competitive relationship between the two countries. But what is it really like to meet with President Xi? I asked former US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns about that. He served under President Biden. I'm curious whether you have any insight into his character and any potential rapport he might have with President Trump.

[Nicholas Burns]

He is very experienced. He's been president since 2012. He has now dealt with President Obama, President Trump and President Biden. He knows all of them well. He is a listener. He's, I think, highly intelligent. He will be steely eyed, not very perhaps outwardly friendly in most of these meetings. All business.

[Emily Feng]

And there is a lot of business for the two leaders to discuss for this upcoming summit. Some of the key issues at stake include things like trade, tariffs and, of course, security. Near the top of that security agenda will be the expansion of China's nuclear arsenal. Over the last decade, China has ramped up its nuclear nuclear weapons program, along with its production of missiles that could carry a nuke. Consider this how much has US Foreign policy influenced China's nuclear ambitions? And what do those ambitions mean for the threat of a new nuclear arms race? From npr, I'm Emily Feng.

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[Emily Feng]

It's Consider this from NPR over the past decade, China's been investing heavily in bolstering its military and expanding its nuclear program. I wanted to find out why, which brought me back to the 1960s, when China became a nuclear power.

[Hui Zhang]

Our nation successfully explodes its second nuclear bomb in the sky over the western

[Emily Feng]

part of our country, developing a nuclear weapon against steep odds in its western desert. But the threat Beijing wanted to deter then was not the us.

[M. Taylor Fravel]

So China they focus on the other target, Soviet Union.

[Emily Feng]

It was the Soviet Union, says Hui Zhang, who researches China's nuclear history at Harvard University.

[M. Taylor Fravel]

In the past, when China take us have a very good friendship, then no worry about whether China have really second

[Hui Zhang]

strike everything with us, Zhang says.

[Emily Feng]

Trust in US restraint, however, started waning in 1999 during a NATO air campaign against the then Yugoslavia. The US bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, it says, by mistake, killing three people. And then in 2002, the US withdrew from an anti ballistic missile treaty with Russia, making Beijing nervous. But still, for years after China kept its nuclear arsenal tiny at the minimal level, its military thought was strategically necessary. Then in 2012, the new Chinese leaders

[M. Taylor Fravel]

revealed, led by President in waiting Xi Jinping.

[Emily Feng]

China's current leader Xi Jinping came to power, and he accelerated an ambitious military modernization campaign, including of China's nuclear capabilities.

[Hui Zhang]

For the first time ever, the United States will have to simultaneously deal with two nuclear nuclear peer competitors, those being

[Emily Feng]

Russia and China, says Xie Peixue, a research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, which is a think tank affiliated with Taiwan's defense ministry, he says. For China's Xi Jinping, the final clincher was in 2018, when the US National Defense Strategy for the first time designated China as the US's strategic competitor.

[Hui Zhang]

Washington gradually shed its old illusions about China and started treating its like the number one threat to security.

[Emily Feng]

And he says China under Xi Jinping also wanted to be a regional power that could stand up to the us

[Hui Zhang]

and so that's why Beijing, especially Xi Jinping, feel the pressure needed to increase the nuclear stockpile.

[Emily Feng]

Today, the Pentagon estimates Beijing's nuclear arsenal to be around 600 warheads. That's more than twice what it had a decade ago. But it's still small compared to the more than 5,000 warheads the US and Russia each have. Chinese defense officials say they want to max out at about 1,000 warheads soon. But Beijing is focused not just on quantity but also capability because it has been closely watching the US build its nuclear capabilities. That's according to M. Taylor Fravel. He's a professor specializing in security studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

[M. Taylor Fravel]

What they worried about was that the US was developing what's known as conventional long range strike weapons that could be used to attack China's nuclear forces.

[Emily Feng]

Beijing thus feared such advanced US non nuclear weapons could take out most of its nuclear arsenal.

[M. Taylor Fravel]

Whatever few Chinese missiles might survive would then be mopped up by kind of U.S. missile defenses. And so essentially China would have no means to retaliate.

[Emily Feng]

Joseph Rogers, who focuses on nuclear issues at the center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, notes Beijing is keeping up with the US by developing land, air and sea launch capabilities.

[M. Taylor Fravel]

So they have missiles that sit on the backs of trucks and they can drive them into tunnels and move them around a lot. China's also fielding submarine launch ballistic missiles so they have subs that have missiles on them. One other component of their land leg is these silos.

[Emily Feng]

Silos. Five years ago, satellite images revealed China had built missile silo fields where Beijing could bury missiles in the ground to be launched on short notice. It's part of Beijing's effort to create what nuclear experts call launch on warning ab, the ability for China to fire back devastating nuclear missiles even before they're hit themselves. It's a powerful deterrent, but it's also a risky one, says Xie in Taipei.

[Hui Zhang]

This will dramatically shrink the window of decision making and increase the risk of a nuclear war breaking out by miscalculation.

[Emily Feng]

Matt Korda with the Federation of American Scientists discovered one of these silo fields and he's been tracking them through satellite imaging. So far he's been unable to confirm if China has loaded any of these fields with actual warheads. But the silo fields have been built out over the years, and Korda can see these Chinese nuclear sites in great detail.

[M. Taylor Fravel]

You'll see this sort of like a silo hatch, you'll see a road that comes up to it that will allow for an easy loading process. Right, because these trucks that are carrying these missiles are very big.

[Emily Feng]

Up until 2024, Chinese state media said these were wind turbine fields. And private retired Chinese senior officials have tried to justify the silo field, saying Beijing must expand over fears the US Would hit them first, according to two former US Officials who requested anonymity so they could speak candidly about these private discussions. And that also means China is making more nuclear weapons. This year, geospatial analyst Renny Babiarz discovered a new nuclear production facility and in the mountains of southwestern Sichuan province.

[M. Taylor Fravel]

And that's the Zhetong nuclear weapons complex. That's a complex of five areas that includes a road to rail transfer point

[Emily Feng]

and a testing area.

[M. Taylor Fravel]

So it's an area that tests high explosives that are a component of nuclear warheads.

[Emily Feng]

China's nuclear expansion has been flagged repeatedly by the Pentagon, which has allocated more resources to deterring China. That may further prompt China to keep expanding its nuclear arsenal, a potentially escalatory cycle which Fravel at MIT says is a classic security dilemma.

[M. Taylor Fravel]

From the Chinese perspective, they saw the US as more threatening. You know, from a US Perspective, they looked at China and its massive, you know, really rapid military modernization began to view China as much more threatening.

[Emily Feng]

And the tricky thing about security dilemmas, Fraeville says, is they are much easier to slip into than to get out of. This episode was produced by Daniel Offman with audio engineering by Ted Niebane. It was edited by Hannah Block, Sarah Robbins and Michael Levitt. Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun. It's Consider this from npr. I'm Emily Fang.

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