What are the implications of a shrinking supply of U.S. missiles?

Summary

Podcast Summary: "What are the implications of a shrinking supply of U.S. missiles?"

Podcast: Consider This from NPR
Host: Mary Louise Kelly
Date: August 4, 2026
Duration: ~15 minutes

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Overview

This episode of Consider This examines the critical issue facing the United States and its allies: rapidly depleting missile stockpiles in the midst of ongoing conflict with Iran. The discussion explores how this shortage of both offensive and defensive missiles not only impacts current military strategies but also poses significant risks for future conflicts, especially with major powers like China and in ongoing support for Ukraine. Featuring expert analysis and on-the-ground reporting, the episode frames the urgency and global ramifications of the U.S.'s diminishing missile supplies.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S. Missile Stockpile Depletion

• Immediate Problem: The Pentagon has "almost depleted its precision missile stock," after months of conflict with Iran ([00:00]).
• Types of Missiles in Short Supply:
  • Tomahawk cruise missiles, Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSMs), ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems), and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM).
• Current Use and Justification:
  • Missiles were used in large quantities to target and disable Iranian air defenses, ensuring pilot safety.
  • “We did use a lot of them, a surprising number at the beginning of the conflict with Iran, in order to knock down their air defense systems and make it secure for our pilots, which is a good, good use of them.”
    — Mark Montgomery, retired Navy admiral ([00:38])

2. Risks of Shortages: Future Conflicts

• Potential Adversaries: Concerns about readiness in the face of possible future conflicts with China or Russia.
• “Do we have a munition shortfall when it comes to China or Russia? I would say the answer is starting to be yes.”
  — Mark Montgomery ([00:55])
• Stockpile Numbers:
  • At the start of the Iran war: ~2,400 Patriot air defense missiles; now: estimated 700–850 left ([06:00]).
  • Actual stockpile numbers remain classified but third-party estimates match official hints.

3. Pentagon Response and Political Context

• Funding Request:
  • Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth urged Congress for a $67 billion budget to replenish weapons stockpiles and cover basic military operations ([01:14]).
• “Without these funds, we face critical shortfalls that threaten our ability to also simply pay our service members, rapidly replenish equipment and munitions, and sustain vital operations without disruption.”
  — Pete Hegseth ([01:14])
• The Trump administration’s inconsistent messaging: At times downplaying the issue, at other times admitting that rebuilding stocks could “take months or years” ([06:21]).

4. Impact on Allies: The Case of Ukraine

• Ukraine's Missile Crisis: Depletion of U.S. Patriot missiles leaves Ukraine unable to effectively defend its cities from Russian ballistic missiles ([07:02]).
• Escalating Attacks:
  • Russian ballistic missile strikes are becoming deadlier as Ukraine runs low on American-made Patriots.
  • Example: In a single Russian attack, 27 ballistic missiles were fired at Kyiv; Ukraine shot down only one ([08:24]).
• Local Perspective in Ukraine:
  • “There’s no question these attacks will continue. The main question is how many more buildings will be hit before our foreign partners give us more help. More Patriot missiles.”
    — Evan Renovich, Kyiv resident ([07:49])
• Workarounds and Desperation:
  • Ukraine is urging other countries to send their Patriot stocks, arguing against ‘stockpiling for hypothetical scenarios' ([09:26]).
  • U.S. trainers suggest using F-16s to conduct preemptive strikes on Russian launch sites to mitigate the shortfall ([10:35]).

5. Broader Implications

• Allies’ Dilemmas: Other U.S. partners—Europe, the Middle East, Asia—are also reconsidering allocation of their missile defenses ([09:26]).
• No Easy Solutions: Experts agree the missile shortage problem is both immediate and potentially long-lasting.
• “The Patriot system has really been the main ballistic missile defense system. And it’s a really big stockpile problem. And so I don’t know if there’s any immediate solution.”
  — Rob Lee, military analyst ([08:14])
• Ukraine’s Resilience: Despite missile shortages, Ukrainians continue efficient post-attack recovery, but their hope is for defense, not just response ([11:11]).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• [00:38] Mark Montgomery: “We did use a lot of them, a surprising number at the beginning of the conflict with Iran, in order to knock down their air defense systems and make it secure for our pilots, which is a good, good use of them.”
• [00:55] Mark Montgomery: “Do we have a munition shortfall when it comes to China or Russia? I would say the answer is starting to be yes.”
• [01:14] Pete Hegseth: “Without these funds, we face critical shortfalls that threaten our ability to also simply pay our service members, rapidly replenish equipment and munitions, and sustain vital operations without disruption.”
• [06:21] Tom Bowman: “The Trump administration, frankly, has been all over the map on the issue. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said back in June, media reports of depleted stockpiles were manufactured stories. But two months earlier he said it's going to take months or years to rebuild missile stockpiles.”
• [07:49] Evan Renovich: “There’s no question these attacks will continue. The main question is how many more buildings will be hit before our foreign partners give us more help. More Patriot missiles.”
• [08:14] Rob Lee: “The Patriot system has really been the main ballistic missile defense system. And it’s a really big stockpile problem. And so I don’t know if there’s any immediate solution.”
• [10:35] Mark Montgomery: “I think there’s a great opportunity here to help the Ukrainians strike the ballistic missiles before they launch.”
• [11:02] Rob Lee: “This is going to be an enduring challenge to Ukraine, where they’ve [got] a number of good trends, positive trends in the war right now, but this is certainly one of those trends that is still very difficult.”

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Important Segments with Timestamps

• Stockpile Status and Impact: [00:00] – [01:27], [03:07] – [06:14]
• Pentagon & Political Positioning: [01:01] – [01:27], [06:14] – [06:38]
• Ukraine’s Struggles: [06:38] – [11:34]
• Expert Analysis on Next Steps: [08:14], [10:35]

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Summary

This episode underscores the seriousness of U.S. missile shortages, the far-reaching consequences for global security – especially for Ukraine and in anticipation of possible future conflicts with great powers like China. It paints a picture of stretched resources, political gridlock, and urgent calls for new strategies. The voices of military experts, U.S. officials, and everyday Ukrainians enrich the narrative, while the data provided (stock failures, budget requests, attack case studies) make clear that the U.S. and its allies are at a crossroads on defense preparedness.

Transcript

[Mary Louise Kelly]

It's consider this, where every day we go deep on one big news story. Today, the United States is confronting a new challenge. After months of war with Iran, the US Is running out of some critical weapons. That is according to a US Official who isn't authorized to speak publicly. The source tells NPR the Pentagon has almost depleted its precision missile stock.

[Mark Montgomery]

That's like Tomahawks, Jasm ers. Those are the names of them.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

That's Mark Montgomery, retired Navy admiral, now a senior director at the foundation for Defense of Democracies. He spoke to here and now on Tuesday.

[Mark Montgomery]

We did use a lot of them, a surprising number at the beginning of the conflict with Iran, in order to knock down their air defense systems and make it secure for our pilots, which is a good, good use of them.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

A good use of them. But what happens if the United States gets into another conflict with a much larger military?

[Mark Montgomery]

Do we have a munition shortfall when it comes to China or Russia? I would say the answer is starting to be yes.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

And late last month, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth went to Capitol Hill asking for more money for his budget, including $67 billion to replenish depleted weapons stockpiles.

[Pete Hegseth]

Without these funds, we face critical shortfalls that threaten our ability to also simply pay our service members, rapidly replenish equipment and munitions, and sustain vital operations without disruption.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Consider this a dwindling weapons stockpile for the US Isn't just affecting the war with Iran. Allies are now having to come up with a plan B. From npr, I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

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[Mary Louise Kelly]

It's Consider this from npr. The war with Iran has seriously depleted the US Missile stockpiles, both offensive and defensive. Now, we've talked on this program before about the stockpile of defensive Patriot missiles. That stockpile has dropped by about two thirds since the war began. Well, now a Reuters report confirmed by NPR says the army has used up most of its long range attack missiles during the war and that's raising concerns not just in this war with Iran, but also for future conflicts. NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman is here. Hey, Tom.

[Tom Bowman]

Hello there.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Okay, what are these army missiles that we're talking about?

[Tom Bowman]

Well, two missiles in particular, according to a U.S. official not authorized to speak. The first is called ATACMS, for the Army Tactical Missile System, which is fired from an armored vehicle with tube launchers that kind of look like a pack of cigarettes. And it's a precision weapon, a range of nearly 200 miles. So it could be fired from American bases in the Middle east, probably closer to the coast to hit targets inside Iran. The other attack missile is called the prism, another acronym, of course, this is a military and stands for precision strike missiles. And it's range about 300 miles, so deeper into Iran when you fire it. Now, one benefit of these missiles, besides the precision, is that they're what's called standoff weapons, which means they can be fired from pretty far away. So you don't have to worry about, let's say, an American pilot getting too close to an enemy's air defenses.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

When we say the army is short on these missiles, how short? How many are left?

[Tom Bowman]

Well, no details on the numbers of these missiles have been used and of course there have been more than 15,000 Iranian targets hit during the war. Now it appears, at least as we're talking now, that a return to massive US Airstrikes seems unlikely. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant says it appears Oman and Iran are close to a deal to manage the Strait of Hormuz and that could lead to it reopening and then further, you know, maybe indirect talks with the US And Iran could lead from that.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Huh. Okay, but beyond Iran, what about the concern I raised for future conflicts? What are we talking about?

[Tom Bowman]

Well, in a word, China. These attack missiles would be key in any conflict with China. The likelihood of that happening now is low. U.S. officials say China won't have the ability to assault Taiwan until next year. And that's capability. It doesn't mean they'll do it. But if they do, then the role for the U.S. what will that be and what are the threats to U.S. forces in the region? That's why it's crucial to have adequate stockpiles of both offensive and defensive weapons like the Patriot. And that stockpile has dropped quite a bit. As we've talked about at the start, at the start of the war, there were nearly 2,400 Patriot missiles. Now that's down to between 700 and 850. And that's according to the center for Strategic and International Studies. The exact number are classified and I'm told by US Official those numbers from CSIS are pretty accurate.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Okay, so down to somewhere between 750, 800 or so, what are Pentagon officials, US officials you speak to, saying about this?

[Tom Bowman]

Well, not much because it's classified. And the Trump administration, frankly has been all over the map on the issue. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said back in June, media reports of depleted stockpiles were manufactured stories. But two months earlier he said it's going to take months or years to rebuild missile stockpiles.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

That's NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman. Now all this affects other conflicts as well. Ukraine, for example, is desperately short of US Made Patriot air defense missiles needed to defend against the Russians. President Volodymyr Zelensky says that is why it keeps getting hammered by Russian ballistic missiles. NPR's Greg Mayuri reports from Ukraine's capital, Kyiv.

[Greg Myre]

Ukrainians are way too familiar with air raid sirens wailing in the middle of the night and with the boom of air defense weapons being launched. These measures have helped protect people. But in recent weeks, Russia's ballistic missiles are slamming into Ukrainian cities far more often because the country is running out of American made Patriot air defense missiles. Workers are sweeping up at an apartment building in the western part of Kyiv. The scorched and pockmarked building was hit by a missile just hours earlier, shattering windows, spraying debris and inflicting multiple casualties. I spoke with a resident, Evan Renovich, age 24.

[Evan Renovich]

There's no question these attacks will continue. The main question is how many more buildings will be hit before our foreign partners give us more help. More Patriot missiles.

[Greg Myre]

Ukraine began receiving Patriot air defense batteries three years ago and this has limited the damage caused by Russian missiles. But Russia has been making and firing more missiles recently at exactly the same time, Ukraine's stocks have dwindled.

[Rob Lee]

The Patriot system has really been the main ballistic missile defense system. And it's a really big stockpile problem. And so I don't know if there's any immediate solution.

[Greg Myre]

Rob Lee is an American military analyst living in Ukraine and working with the Foreign Policy Research Institute of Philadelphia. The attack last Saturday showed just how dire the situation is. Russia unleashed 27 ballistic missiles, and Ukraine only shot down one. According to officials, seven different parts of Kyiv were hit. Nine people were killed, more than 30 injured. When facing Russian drones, Ukraine shoots down more than 90% of them. Air Force spokesman Yuri Anat explains that Ukraine does this in multiple ways. It fires its own interceptor drones, it uses electronic jamming to drive Russian drones off course, and it sends up helicopters and old propeller planes equipped with machine guns to shoot them down.

[Evan Renovich]

We use all these different means, and we have to act quickly. The Russians try to exhaust our air defenses with drones and then fire ballistic missiles.

[Greg Myre]

But with these missiles, which travel thousands of miles an hour, there's no reliable alternative to the Patriot. First introduced by the US in the 1980s, the US has shared this system with nearly 20 other countries in Europe, the Middle east, and Asia. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is pleading with these countries to send some of their missiles to Ukraine. He says they shouldn't be stockpiled for, quote, hypothetical scenarios, but used here and now to contain and stop the Russian war. The US has the largest arsenal, however. President Trump has cut off nearly all military assistance to Ukraine, and the US Burned through much of its Patriot stockpile in the Iran war. Mark Montgomery is a retired US Navy rear admiral who comes to Ukraine to help train the military. He says one possible approach in the short term is for Ukraine to use its US F16 fighter jets to attack the sites where Russia launches the missiles. Instead of trying to defend against every single incoming missile, he says go after the Russian teams firing them.

[Mark Montgomery]

I think there's a great opportunity here to help the Ukrainians strike the ballistic missiles before they launch.

[Greg Myre]

He says this would require modifications to the F16s, but believes it could be done in weeks.

[Mark Montgomery]

If we can kill their operators, we're going to reduce number of launches.

[Greg Myre]

Meanwhile, Ukraine is gaining momentum in the war with punishing drone strikes deep inside Russia. But the problem with Russian missiles cannot be ignored, says Rob Lee.

[Rob Lee]

This is going to be an enduring challenge to Ukraine, where they've a number of good trends, positive trends in the war right now, but this is certainly one of those trends that is still very difficult.

[Greg Myre]

Back at the damaged apartment building, workers cut plywood to cover missing windows. A backhoe loads rubble into a dump truck. A steamroller levels fresh asphalt to repair the damaged street. Ukrainians are briskly efficient in cleaning up after attacks, but what they really want is a defense that keeps these strikes from ever happening.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

That was Greg Myre reporting from Kyiv. This episode was produced by Katharine Fink, Alina Burnett and Kar Zamora, with audio engineering by Ted Mebane. Our director is Jonas Adams. It was edited by Andrew Sussman, Patrick Jaron Watananan and Ashley Brown. Our interim executive producer is Courtney Dornier. It's consider this from npr. I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

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