Consider This from NPR: What Assad's Fall Means For The World

Release Date: December 9, 2024

The latest episode of NPR's Consider This delves into the dramatic and sudden end of Bashar al-Assad's half-century rule over Syria. Through personal narratives and expert analysis, the episode explores the immediate aftermath of Assad's fall and its profound implications on both Syria and the broader geopolitical landscape.

Personal Perspective: Muaz Mustafa

The episode opens with Ari Shapiro introducing Muaz Mustafa, the executive director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force. Mustafa provides a deeply personal account of the turmoil that has engulfed Syria:

Muaz Mustafa [00:36]: "It's my life. I mean, and it's the greatest honor of my life to have been part of a revolution calling for dignity and democracy and freedom."

Having fled Damascus in 1995 during Assad's oppressive regime, Mustafa returned to witness the city's liberation. His emotional anticipation is palpable as he prepares to step foot in Damascus once more:

Muaz Mustafa [01:04]: "I'm going to kiss the ground. I'm going to kiss that soil that I've dreamed of going back to for so long."

Mustafa shares the heartfelt hope surrounding the release of thousands from Syrian prisons, highlighting the personal losses endured by many:

Muaz Mustafa [01:27]: "But in Syria, the people in jails are the people that should be free, and the people that were jailing them are the people that should be in jail."

The Fall of Assad: Context and Events

Ari Shapiro sets the stage by describing the scenes of jubilation in Damascus—streets filled with freed prisoners, symbolic destruction of Assad's images, and the palpable hope for a new era. The narrative underscores Syria's pivotal role in global geopolitics, setting the foundation for an in-depth discussion on the ramifications of Assad's ousting.

Geopolitical Analysis with Professor Joshua Landis

Professor Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, provides a comprehensive analysis of the factors leading to Assad's downfall and the subsequent global implications.

Factors Leading to Assad's Fall

Landis attributes Assad's sudden loss of power to the convergence of pressures from key international allies and internal systemic failures:

• Russia's Disengagement: Distracted by the protracted conflict in Ukraine, Russia lacked the necessary resources to support Assad effectively. Landis notes:

  Professor Joshua Landis [04:38]: "Russia in the Ukraine war, 160 of its airplanes have been shot down. It didn't have the material to help Assad..."

• Iran's Weakening Position: Iran faced significant setbacks due to ongoing conflicts with Israel, which severely impacted its proxy, Hezbollah:

  Professor Joshua Landis [04:38]: "...Iran and Iran very similarly. It had had its ears pinned back by Israel and these back and forth attacks..."

• Economic Strain on the Syrian Military: Chronic underfunding led to a hollowed-out Syrian army, struggling with low morale and insufficient pay:

  Professor Joshua Landis [05:18]: "The Syrian army was really naked and we saw that it just didn't have much more oomph."

• U.S. Sanctions and Military Pressure: Stringent U.S. sanctions crippled Syria's economy, particularly by targeting its oil and gas revenues. Additionally, U.S. military presence in Northeast Syria hindered Assad's financial base:

  Professor Joshua Landis [06:06]: "America took the oil and gas when it entered into the fray in Syria... between sanctions and denying the oil and gas, the regime really was hollowed out and didn't have money to pay people."

Strategic Importance of Syria

Syria's geographic and strategic significance has made it a linchpin in regional power dynamics:

• Russia's Strategic Asset: The port of Tartus serves as Russia's only Mediterranean naval base, crucial for refitting its ships:

  Professor Joshua Landis [07:03]: "For Russia, Tartus on the coast is the major port for Russia to refit its ships in the Mediterranean."

• Iran’s Influence: Syria is integral to Iran's "Shiite crescent," connecting key allies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and maintaining the supply lines essential for Iran's regional ambitions:

  Professor Joshua Landis [07:50]: "By denying Syria, flipping Syria from a Shiite country to a Sunni ruled country is going to deny it to Iran."

Implications of Assad’s Fall

The ousting of Assad is set to recalibrate the Middle East's balance of power:

• Rise of Sunni Influence: With Syria potentially shifting to Sunni dominance, countries like Turkey and Saudi Arabia are poised to exert greater influence:

  Professor Joshua Landis [08:52]: "It's going to firm up this sort of Sunni dominated Middle east and it's going to hurt Iran considerably."

• Diminished Iranian and Russian Presence: The loss of Syria as a stronghold weakens Iran's support for Hezbollah and diminishes Russia's strategic foothold in the region.

• United States' Ambiguous Role: Under the shadow of a second Trump presidency and shifting U.S. policies, America's future involvement remains uncertain:

  Professor Joshua Landis [09:30]: "America have got to decide whether it's going to embrace him [Al Jelani]."

Future Outlook

Professor Landis emphasizes the precariousness of Syria's future governance and regional stability:

Professor Joshua Landis [09:53]: "There's a lot of anxiety about the future, that Syria could turn into an unholy mess without being able to consolidate power."

He underscores the challenges faced by the new leadership in unifying Syria's diverse ethnic and religious groups, highlighting the potential for both democratic advancements and the resurgence of jihadism.

Conclusions and Future Outlook

The episode concludes with reflections on the transformative potential of Syria's newfound freedom and the intricate web of international interests that will shape its path forward. While the fall of Assad marks a significant victory for Syrian rebels and democracy advocates, the region stands at a crossroads, with the possible emergence of new power structures and alliances.

Ari Shapiro encapsulates the uncertainty surrounding Syria's future:

Ari Shapiro [10:57]: "We'll have to see how it does it and what attitude it takes, of course, towards the government, democracy, jihadism, all of these things."

As Syria begins to navigate its post-Assad era, the global community watches closely, aware that the country's trajectory will have lasting implications for international relations and Middle Eastern stability.

Produced by: Mark Rivers, Erica Ryan, and Katherine Fink
Edited by: Christopher Antalyata, Tinbeet Ermias, Nadia Lancy, and Sami Yenigun

Consider This from NPR is a production by NPR, providing insightful analyses on major news stories to help listeners understand their significance in an ever-changing world.