What Assad's Fall Means For The World

Summary

Consider This from NPR: What Assad's Fall Means For The World

Release Date: December 9, 2024

The latest episode of NPR's Consider This delves into the dramatic and sudden end of Bashar al-Assad's half-century rule over Syria. Through personal narratives and expert analysis, the episode explores the immediate aftermath of Assad's fall and its profound implications on both Syria and the broader geopolitical landscape.

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Personal Perspective: Muaz Mustafa

The episode opens with Ari Shapiro introducing Muaz Mustafa, the executive director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force. Mustafa provides a deeply personal account of the turmoil that has engulfed Syria:

Muaz Mustafa [00:36]: "It's my life. I mean, and it's the greatest honor of my life to have been part of a revolution calling for dignity and democracy and freedom."

Having fled Damascus in 1995 during Assad's oppressive regime, Mustafa returned to witness the city's liberation. His emotional anticipation is palpable as he prepares to step foot in Damascus once more:

Muaz Mustafa [01:04]: "I'm going to kiss the ground. I'm going to kiss that soil that I've dreamed of going back to for so long."

Mustafa shares the heartfelt hope surrounding the release of thousands from Syrian prisons, highlighting the personal losses endured by many:

Muaz Mustafa [01:27]: "But in Syria, the people in jails are the people that should be free, and the people that were jailing them are the people that should be in jail."

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The Fall of Assad: Context and Events

Ari Shapiro sets the stage by describing the scenes of jubilation in Damascus—streets filled with freed prisoners, symbolic destruction of Assad's images, and the palpable hope for a new era. The narrative underscores Syria's pivotal role in global geopolitics, setting the foundation for an in-depth discussion on the ramifications of Assad's ousting.

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Geopolitical Analysis with Professor Joshua Landis

Professor Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, provides a comprehensive analysis of the factors leading to Assad's downfall and the subsequent global implications.

Factors Leading to Assad's Fall

Landis attributes Assad's sudden loss of power to the convergence of pressures from key international allies and internal systemic failures:

• Russia's Disengagement: Distracted by the protracted conflict in Ukraine, Russia lacked the necessary resources to support Assad effectively. Landis notes:

  Professor Joshua Landis [04:38]: "Russia in the Ukraine war, 160 of its airplanes have been shot down. It didn't have the material to help Assad..."

• Iran's Weakening Position: Iran faced significant setbacks due to ongoing conflicts with Israel, which severely impacted its proxy, Hezbollah:

  Professor Joshua Landis [04:38]: "...Iran and Iran very similarly. It had had its ears pinned back by Israel and these back and forth attacks..."

• Economic Strain on the Syrian Military: Chronic underfunding led to a hollowed-out Syrian army, struggling with low morale and insufficient pay:

  Professor Joshua Landis [05:18]: "The Syrian army was really naked and we saw that it just didn't have much more oomph."

• U.S. Sanctions and Military Pressure: Stringent U.S. sanctions crippled Syria's economy, particularly by targeting its oil and gas revenues. Additionally, U.S. military presence in Northeast Syria hindered Assad's financial base:

  Professor Joshua Landis [06:06]: "America took the oil and gas when it entered into the fray in Syria... between sanctions and denying the oil and gas, the regime really was hollowed out and didn't have money to pay people."

Strategic Importance of Syria

Syria's geographic and strategic significance has made it a linchpin in regional power dynamics:

• Russia's Strategic Asset: The port of Tartus serves as Russia's only Mediterranean naval base, crucial for refitting its ships:

  Professor Joshua Landis [07:03]: "For Russia, Tartus on the coast is the major port for Russia to refit its ships in the Mediterranean."

• Iran’s Influence: Syria is integral to Iran's "Shiite crescent," connecting key allies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and maintaining the supply lines essential for Iran's regional ambitions:

  Professor Joshua Landis [07:50]: "By denying Syria, flipping Syria from a Shiite country to a Sunni ruled country is going to deny it to Iran."

Implications of Assad’s Fall

The ousting of Assad is set to recalibrate the Middle East's balance of power:

• Rise of Sunni Influence: With Syria potentially shifting to Sunni dominance, countries like Turkey and Saudi Arabia are poised to exert greater influence:

  Professor Joshua Landis [08:52]: "It's going to firm up this sort of Sunni dominated Middle east and it's going to hurt Iran considerably."

• Diminished Iranian and Russian Presence: The loss of Syria as a stronghold weakens Iran's support for Hezbollah and diminishes Russia's strategic foothold in the region.

• United States' Ambiguous Role: Under the shadow of a second Trump presidency and shifting U.S. policies, America's future involvement remains uncertain:

  Professor Joshua Landis [09:30]: "America have got to decide whether it's going to embrace him [Al Jelani]."

Future Outlook

Professor Landis emphasizes the precariousness of Syria's future governance and regional stability:

Professor Joshua Landis [09:53]: "There's a lot of anxiety about the future, that Syria could turn into an unholy mess without being able to consolidate power."

He underscores the challenges faced by the new leadership in unifying Syria's diverse ethnic and religious groups, highlighting the potential for both democratic advancements and the resurgence of jihadism.

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Conclusions and Future Outlook

The episode concludes with reflections on the transformative potential of Syria's newfound freedom and the intricate web of international interests that will shape its path forward. While the fall of Assad marks a significant victory for Syrian rebels and democracy advocates, the region stands at a crossroads, with the possible emergence of new power structures and alliances.

Ari Shapiro encapsulates the uncertainty surrounding Syria's future:

Ari Shapiro [10:57]: "We'll have to see how it does it and what attitude it takes, of course, towards the government, democracy, jihadism, all of these things."

As Syria begins to navigate its post-Assad era, the global community watches closely, aware that the country's trajectory will have lasting implications for international relations and Middle Eastern stability.

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Produced by: Mark Rivers, Erica Ryan, and Katherine Fink
Edited by: Christopher Antalyata, Tinbeet Ermias, Nadia Lancy, and Sami Yenigun

Consider This from NPR is a production by NPR, providing insightful analyses on major news stories to help listeners understand their significance in an ever-changing world.

Transcript

[Ari Shapiro]

For half a century, one family has brutally ruled Syria. And nearly overnight, that reign ended. The shock still has not worn off, especially for those who fought against his regime.

[Muaz Mustafa]

I feel like I won't believe it till I see it. I almost don't want to, like, jinx myself. But I also want to declare to the world Damascus is free.

[Ari Shapiro]

Muaz Mustafa and his family left the city of Damascus in 1995. He was a teenager then. He studied in the United States and made a life here. Now he's executive director of a nonprofit called the Syrian Emergency Task Force. The country isn't just the focus of Mustafa's work. It's what he thinks about all the time.

[Muaz Mustafa]

It's my life. I mean, and it's the greatest honor of my life to have been part of a revolution calling for dignity and democracy and freedom.

[Ari Shapiro]

When he came into our studios, he was getting ready to board a flight, his first trip back to the place of his birth in many years. Damascus is a city transformed, newly liberated by a Syrian rebel force. What are you going to do the first thing when you arrive, when you land on that soil?

[Muaz Mustafa]

I'm going to kiss the ground. I'm going to kiss that soil that I've dreamed of going back to for so long.

[Ari Shapiro]

As you see these huge numbers of people released from Syrian prisons, are there specific democracy advocates or activists or people you've worked with, who you are waiting to see if they emerge?

[Muaz Mustafa]

I have an uncle who's my compass in life. You know, sometimes in our families, you have one person who just you really get along with, you know, like more than best friends. After I took John McCain to Syria in 2013 or so, my uncle and his wife, his little kids, it was one year old at the time, Omar, four year old Maria, 14 year old Sally, they were all taken. Thank God. We were able to find a way to get my aunt and my nephews and nieces home. But my uncle, I think he's dead. But I still have some hope, maybe in one of these dungeons when we open them, that he may still be there. But I don't know if I'm lying to myself or not. But in Syria, the people in jails are the people that should be free, and the people that were jailing them are the people that should be in jail.

[Ari Shapiro]

Consider this, Syria is not only a home to millions of people, it's also a crucial piece in a geopolitical chess game. Coming up, what the fall of Bashar al Assad means for the future of the world. From NPR. I'm Ari Shapiro.

[Joshua Landis]

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[Professor Joshua Landis]

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[Ari Shapiro]

It's Consider this from NPR In Damascus, there are scenes of jubilation in the streets, people freed from Syrian prisons, wandering through palaces and stomping on photos of Bashar al Assad, the deposed dictator whose family ruled the country for half a cent century. We're going to look now at the country's important global role and how the fall of the Assad regime could change geopolitical dynamics all over the world. Professor Joshua Landis directs the center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma. Welcome.

[Professor Joshua Landis]

It's a pleasure being with you, Ari.

[Ari Shapiro]

I want to try to tackle both the past, why this happened, and the future, what it means for the world. So let's start by looking backwards. Iran and Russia both helped support the Syrian regime for years and this time they didn't. Why do you think this went differently?

[Professor Joshua Landis]

Well, they're both totally preoccupied. Russia in the Ukraine war, 160 of its airplanes have been shot down. It didn't have the material to help Assad and Iran and Iran very similarly. It had had its ears pinned back by Israel and these back and forth attacks. And its major ally, Hezbollah was largely destroyed by Israel. And Hezbollah had been the number one backer of Assad during the retaking of Aleppo and reconquering much of Syria as he had. So without Russia, without Hezbollah, without Iran, the Syrian army was really naked and we saw that it just didn't have much more oomph.

[Ari Shapiro]

We've also heard that the Syrian army itself was hollowed out over the last several years. What does that actually mean.

[Professor Joshua Landis]

Well, I'll tell you a little anecdote which explains it to a certain part, is that the officers around Aleppo were getting about $30 a month and the enlisted men $10 a month. And so what officers had done is they'd sent many of their enlisted men home in order to collect their salaries, in order to feed their families. And Damascus just wasn't sending money. And soldiers were living off the land and stopping people at roadblocks, taking money from them. Everything had begun to crumble.

[Ari Shapiro]

So you had Russia bogged down in Ukraine, Iran weakened by Israel's attacks on Hezbollah, the Syrian military hollowed out. Was there a US role here?

[Professor Joshua Landis]

There was an important US role and that is sanctions and taking the oil and gas very strict sanctions on Syria meant that very little money or rebuilding could take place. America took the oil and gas when it entered into the fray in Syria. It conquered a large hunk of northeast Syria which has much of its good agricult but also most of its oil and gas wells. And America uses that to help support its Kurdish proxy in Syria. So before the war, 40% of government receipts came from that oil and gas and that was denied to Damascus. So between sanctions and denying the oil and gas, the regime really was hollowed out and didn't have money to pay people.

[Ari Shapiro]

Syria has been such a crucial, strategically useful ally to Russia and Iran. It's a very important school square on the global chessboard. Can you explain why?

[Professor Joshua Landis]

Well, for Russia, Tartus on the coast is the major port for Russia to refit its ships in the Mediterranean. It was the only Russian port where it could rebuild and refit ships. So that is going to be a major loss. It also was strategically very important. For example, in the past Israel had provided Georgia with tons of arms and Russia said, you continue to do that and we'll support Assad with anti aircraft missiles. Netanyahu flew to Putin and they agreed to stop arming Georgia. Same with Ukraine. Israel has been very careful not to supply Ukraine with tons of weapons for fear of alienating Russia. And now Russia doesn't have that card anymore.

[Ari Shapiro]

And why is Syria so essential to Iran?

[Professor Joshua Landis]

The Shiite crescent as it's been called, that is these four states. Hezbollah dominated Lebanon, Assad, heterodox, Shiite dominating Syria, Shiite dominated Iraq and Iran formed a long corridor right through the middle of the Middle east. And they're also the axis of resistance to Israel. And Hezbollah was resupplied by Iran over Syrian territory. Iran could not get its arms in through the air or thrice shipping only over land through Syria. So by denying Syria, flipping Syria from a Shiite country to a Sunni ruled country is going to deny it to Iran. And that means Iran will not be able to rebuild Hezbollah.

[Ari Shapiro]

And so we don't know which way Syria's new leadership will go. But if the country stops being a reliable funnel for Iranian weapons and fighters that have gone to Hezbollah, and if it stops being home to Russia's air and naval presence, home to Russia's only port on the Mediterranean Sea, how does that change the world?

[Professor Joshua Landis]

Well, it's certainly going to change the Middle east because Turkey is going to have overriding influence. Syria will be ruled by Sunni Muslims for the first time in about 60 years. And Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries are going to look for influence in Damascus as well, replacing Iran. It is going to firm up this sort of Sunni dominated Middle east and it's going to hurt Iran considerably.

[Ari Shapiro]

And as to the role of the United States in all of this, under a second Trump presidency, I mean, he posted in all caps on social media, this is not our fight. What, what role do you see the United States playing right now?

[Professor Joshua Landis]

I think most people in Washington are scratching their head and trying to figure out can this government really rule Damascus. Ruling Idlib province was one thing, but ruling an entire country Syria is going to be much more difficult. And Syria is a very diverse country with ethnic and religious minorities. Al Jolani is going to have a hard time bringing them all together.

[Ari Shapiro]

This is the rebel leader, Abu Mohammed Al Jelani. Yeah.

[Professor Joshua Landis]

Yes. So America's taking a wait and see attitude. That's what Biden expressed. He is not giving back those oil wells right away. He is going to remain supporting the Kurds. El Jolani is going to want those oil wells. He's going to want America to leave. And Turkey is going to pressure both America and Jelani, who is very dependent on Turkey, to help him get rid of the Americans. And he's going to want sanctions lifted. So America have got to decide whether it's going to embrace him. And right now, I think most of the countries in the region and in the international community want to look at this as a good moment, as a moment of victory for them all and to help the regime. At the same time, there's a lot of anxiety about the future, that Syria could turn into an unholy mess without being able to consolidate power. And we'll have to see how it does it and what attitude it takes, of course, towards the government, democracy, jihadism, all of these things.

[Ari Shapiro]

Joshua Landis directs the center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma. Thank you very much.

[Professor Joshua Landis]

Pleasure.

[Ari Shapiro]

This episode was produced by Mark Rivers, Erica Ryan and Katherine Fink. It was edited by Christopher Antalyata, Tinbeet Ermias, Nadia Lancy and Sami Yenigun, who's also our executive producer. It's consider this from NPR, I'm Ari Shapiro.

[Laurel Wamsley]

From the online trends that dominated 2024.

[Professor Joshua Landis]

On the spectrum of brat to demure, where are you right now?

[Laurel Wamsley]

To spicy TikTok viral reads, these romance fantasy books about dragons, NPR kept you up to speed on pop culture all year long. Give back to the news source that just hits different by donating [e-mail] and thank you. Hi, I'm Laurel Wamsley, and I cover personal finance for npr. That means I report on some of the questions that might keep you or your loved ones up at night, like will I ever be able to buy a home? What about retirement? As interest rates drop, where should I put my money? Economic headlines can be confusing, but NPR is here to help you make sense of them. To support this coverage, please give [e-mail] hi, it's Marielle Segarra from Life. Kid, there's a first time for everything, including giving to npr. Whether you're a brand new listener or a longtime fan, please join the community of NPR Network supporters today. Make your [e-mail] and thank you.