What do we know about what's driving political violence?

Summary

Summary of "What do we know about what's driving political violence?" – Consider This from NPR

Release Date: July 13, 2025

In this episode of NPR's Consider This, host Scott Detrow delves into the escalating issue of political violence in the United States. Through recent incidents, expert analysis, and discussions on underlying motivations, the episode seeks to unravel the complex factors driving this disturbing trend.

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1. Rising Tide of Political Violence

Scott Detrow opens the conversation by reflecting on a chilling event from the previous year: an assassination attempt on President Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania. A bullet grazed Trump's ear, landing within a mere quarter of an inch from him ([00:00]). This incident is highlighted as a pivotal moment in the 2020 presidential race, which ultimately Trump won. Detrow emphasizes that such violent acts are not isolated, noting a broader uptick in political violence across the nation.

Key Points:

• Multiple Assassination Attempts: Beyond the Trump incident, there was a second attempt on his life later that summer, and an arson attack on Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and his family earlier in the year.
• Recent Tragedy in Minnesota: Detrow brings attention to a tragic event where Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark were shot and killed, suspected to be a politically motivated assassination carried out by a gunman who also targeted another Democratic lawmaker and his wife ([00:49]).

Notable Quote:

"Cases compiled by the U.S. Capitol Police have risen for the second year in a row, with the total number more than doubling since 2017." ([00:48])

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2. Threat Assessment and Comparative Analysis

Detrow provides a threat assessment, drawing parallels between political violence and other forms of mass violence in the U.S., such as school shootings. He underscores the alarming increase in politically motivated incidents, suggesting that political violence is becoming as pervasive and concerning as other types of mass shootings.

Key Points:

• Doubling of Incidents: Since 2017, political violence cases have more than doubled, indicating a significant rise in threats against public officials.
• Integration with Other Forms of Violence: The comparison to school shootings highlights the severity and frequency of these political threats.

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3. Expert Insight with Kathryn Keneally

To dissect the motivations and patterns behind political violence, Detrow engages with Kathryn Keneally, the Director of Threat Analysis and Prevention at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue.

**a. Understanding Motivations Behind Attacks

Keneally addresses the complexities in identifying the exact motivations behind attacks on politicians. She explains that while many incidents appear politically motivated on the surface, the underlying reasons are often unclear and multifaceted.

Notable Quotes:

"It's become pretty murky in that we don't always know exactly what they were being targeted for." ([03:38])

"To this day, we still don't really know what the motivation, if really any political motivation was behind the attack." ([04:25])

**b. Challenges in Threat Identification

When discussing specific cases, such as the shooter who attempted to assassinate Trump, Keneally points out the difficulty in discerning political motivations. She emphasizes that many perpetrators do not fit into traditional extremist profiles, making threat assessment more challenging.

Notable Quote:

"What we're often seeing is that it has become much more hybridized that the individuals who are conducting attacks or plotting to conduct attacks are not fitting into any traditional extremist bucket." ([05:13])

**c. Role of the Online Environment

Keneally highlights the significant influence of the online environment in shaping motivations for political violence. Social media platforms are often breeding grounds for extremist ideologies and conspiracy theories that can radicalize individuals.

Notable Quote:

"Social media is the first place that not just researchers but often law enforcement will go to to better understand the motivations behind it." ([06:19])

**d. Evolving Nature of Extremism

Unlike past incidents driven by clear extremist ideologies, current perpetrators often engage with a variety of extremist and conspiratorial content online. This hybridized motivation complicates traditional threat assessment models.

Notable Quote:

"They might be engaging with a variety of extremist ideologies online or motivated by various conspiracy theories more broadly." ([05:13])

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4. Strategies for Mitigation and Prevention

Keneally offers insights into potential strategies to mitigate the rise in political violence, emphasizing the need for adaptive prevention and response models.

**a. Reevaluating Social Media's Role

She advocates for a societal reevaluation of the role social media plays in influencing violent behaviors. The pervasive nature of online extremist content necessitates a collective decision on regulating such platforms to prevent radicalization.

Notable Quote:

"We need to determine as a society what we're willing to deal with when it comes to social media." ([06:53])

**b. Bystander Reporting and Community Involvement

Keneally stresses the importance of the "see something, say something" model. Encouraging bystanders to report suspicious activities or conversations can be pivotal in preventing potential attacks.

Notable Quote:

"The see something, say something model is also important to addressing this threat." ([07:37])

**c. Improving Information Sharing Among Law Enforcement

Addressing recommendations from recent reports, Keneally underscores the necessity for enhanced information sharing between law enforcement agencies to better identify and preempt threats.

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5. Concluding Thoughts

The episode wraps up by reiterating the complex and evolving nature of political violence in the United States. It calls for a multifaceted approach that includes societal responsibility, enhanced law enforcement strategies, and adaptive threat assessment models to effectively counteract and prevent future incidents.

Notable Quote:

"Often people aren't fitting into these traditional ideological categories. We can't be reliant upon our existing systems that are based on that to do anything about it." ([06:14])

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Production Credits:

• Producer: Gabriel Sanchez
• Editor: Sarah Robbins
• Executive Producer: Sami Yenigun

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This detailed exploration on Consider This sheds light on the pressing issue of political violence, offering listeners a comprehensive understanding of its drivers and potential solutions.

Transcript

[Scott Detrow]

One year ago, as he campaigned in Butler, Pennsylvania, a bullet grazed President Trump's ear. As you already know, the assassin's bullet came within a quarter of an inch.

[Kathryn Keneally]

Of taking my life.

[Scott Detrow]

Today. The exact motives of the shooter still remain murky, but the near assassination was a defining moment in a race that Trump ultimately won. And it's also part of a broader ongoing story, a story about an increase in violence in American politics. A second assassination attempt against Trump later that summer, an arson attack against Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and his family earlier this year and within the past few weeks. We're here today because an unspeakable tragedy has unfolded in Minnesota. My good friend and colleague Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark were shot and killed early this morning in what appears to be a politically motivated assassination. Minnesota Governor Tim Walls promised accountability for to the death of a former Minnesota House speaker and her husband who were shot and killed by a gunman who also shot another Democratic lawmaker and his wife. Consider this threat assessment. Cases compiled by the U.S. capitol Police have risen for the second year in a row, with the total number more than doubling since 2017. At times, political violence is starting to feel as pervasive as school shootings. But what do we know about what is driving this anger? Coming up, we'll hear about threat analysis research and the recommendations for countering a rise in political violence from npr. I'm Scott Detrow. This message comes from Carvana. Why spend time wondering what your car is worth? Instantly track its value on Carvana Value Tracker, answer a few quick questions and stay up to speed on your car's value. Track your car's [e-mail] the House of.

[Gabriel Sanchez]

Representatives has approved a White House request to claw back two years of previously approved funding for public media. The rescissions package now moves on to the Senate. This move poses a serious threat to local stations and public media as we know it. Please take a stand for public media [e-mail] thank you.

[Scott Detrow]

This is Eric Glass on this American Life. Sometimes we just show up somewhere, turn on our tape recorders and see what happens. If you can't get seven cars in 12 days, you gotta look yourself in the mirror and say holy. What are you kidding me? This car dealership trying to sell its monthly quota of cars and it is not going well. I just don't want one balloon to a car. Balloon the whole freaking place so it looks like a circus. Real life stories. Every week it's consider this from npr. A just released Senate report outlines the Secret Service's failures in the run up to the assassination attempt against Donald Trump last summer. Another investigation into the attack by the Government Accountability Office recommends improved sharing of information between law enforcement partners. But could another attempt evade detection? And what has changed about the perpetrators of political violence today? Joining us to talk about this is Kathryn Keneally, the director of threat analysis and prevention at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue.

[Kathryn Keneally]

Thanks for having me.

[Scott Detrow]

You know, as I said and as I think we all feel and see, violence against politicians is becoming more commonplace. But what do we know about whether politicians are being targeted for what they specifically have done and stood for and are trying to pass legislatively?

[Kathryn Keneally]

It's become pretty murky in that we don't always know exactly what they were being targeted for. I think in many of these incidents, especially when you see a public official being targeted, the immediate reaction is to think that it was a politically motivated attack. And often it is. But when you look into the individual and their motivations, what we're often seeing is that the reason for targeting that specific individual is right.

[Scott Detrow]

I mean, Thomas Crooks, for example, who's the person who tried to shoot and kill Trump and Butler. It just seems incredibly unclear based on the traces we see of any political motivation.

[Kathryn Keneally]

There was absolutely. I mean, to this day, we still don't really know what the motivation, if really any political motivation was behind the attack.

[Scott Detrow]

How does your group identify and catalog violent actions with assumed political motivations?

[Kathryn Keneally]

We look to better understand how the online environment is influencing offline violence. And so after an attack attack, what we will do is conduct an analysis looking at social media, open source court records to make an assessment as to whether an attack was politically or ideologically motivated. What we've done is we've acquired a fairly large data set over the last year looking at better understanding what has been behind attacks that appear ideologically motivated or tied to some sort of online radicalization to better understand what the threat landscape is today.

[Scott Detrow]

Are there any trends of what people are doing and saying and searching for online and political violence that you've seen in these cases you've studied?

[Kathryn Keneally]

In many of these cases we've studied, we are seeing a trend in that often the attackers aren't fitting into any traditional extremist box or ideology. When we had the horrific attacks in Buffalo, New York or in New Zealand many years ago, those were very clear attacks that were motivated by white supremacy fits into these very clear traditional extremism lenses. What we're often seeing now is that it has become much more hybridized that the individuals who are conducting attacks or plotting to conduct attacks are not fitting into any traditional extremist bucket. They might be engaging with a variety of extremist ideologies online or motivated by various conspiracy theories more broadly.

[Scott Detrow]

Have you seen any changes in any tightening of the relationship between what happens online and then what happens in real life when people try to carry out these attacks over the past decade? I'm just thinking about how much social media has changed in recent years when.

[Kathryn Keneally]

We are looking for a motivation after an attack. Social media is the first place that not just researchers but often law enforcement will go to to better understand the motivations behind it. Because what we're seeing is that the content that people are engaging with is often representative of their motivation for committing violence in the first place.

[Scott Detrow]

Is there anything that you're seeing, observing that you think some sort of broad steps could be taken to try to mitigate this, whether it's the initial online behavior, whether it's the radicalization, whether it's the point where people try to carry these attacks out? What are you thinking about this?

[Kathryn Keneally]

We are adjusting and tailoring our prevention and response models to this threat, around the threat that exists today. Today, because unfortunately, the existing definitions that we use to counter this threat aren't applying. We're seeing attacks where the motivation is unclear and people aren't fitting into these traditional ideological categories. We can't be reliant upon our existing systems that are based on that to do anything about it. Often what people are asking are like, what can people do right now? I think one, we need to determine as a society what we're willing to deal with when it comes to social media. Again and again, we're seeing that it is influencing acts of violence and we need to make a decision about whether we're okay with that. And the second is this highlights the importance of bystander reporting because often what we see with these particular incidents are there have been leakages, be it online or they're speaking to family or friends. And that information isn't always being reported to law enforcement. It seems a little bit silly, but, you know, the see something, say something model is also important to addressing this threat.

[Scott Detrow]

That was Kathryn Keneally with the Institute for Strategic Dialogue joining us from Montana. Thanks so much for talking.

[Kathryn Keneally]

Thank you.

[Scott Detrow]

This episode was produced by Gabriel Sanchez. It was edited by Sarah Robbins. Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun. It's consider this from npr. I'm Scott Detrow. This summer on Planet Money Summer School, we're learning about political economy. We're getting into the nitty gritty of what government does with things like trade, taxes, immigration and healthcare. So politics and economics, which are taught separately, they shouldn't be separated at all. I think you have to understand one to really appreciate the other. So what is the right amount of government in our lives? Tune into Planet Money Summer School from npr. Wherever you get your podcasts, grab a.

[Gabriel Sanchez]

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[Kathryn Keneally]

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