What do we know about what's happening in Iran?

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Consider This from NPR

Episode: What Do We Know About What's Happening in Iran?

Date: January 12, 2026
Host: Juana Summers
Guests: Holly Dogris (Washington Institute for Near East Policy), Nader Habibi (Brandeis University), Franco Ordonez (NPR White House Correspondent), Greg Myre (NPR National Security Correspondent)

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Overview

This episode unpacks the volatile situation in Iran, focusing on a nationwide communication blackout, escalating anti-government protests, and the U.S. response under President Trump. NPR correspondents and policy experts contribute insights into the information vacuum, regional dynamics, protest motivations, and the international ramifications of the latest unrest.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Information Blackout & Communication Crisis

• Widespread Blackout:
  • Since Thursday night, Iran has been under a government-imposed internet and phone blackout. Family members abroad, like expert Holly Dogris, have been unable to reach loved ones.
  • Quote (Holly Dogris, 00:03): "The communications blackout started on Thursday night in Iran. And so it's basically been Thursday since we've heard from them."
• Limited Workarounds:
  • Limited connectivity exists via Starlink, but only for 50,000–60,000 people in a nation of 90 million.
  • Quote (Holly Dogris, 00:30): "That's only 50 to 60,000 users across a country of 90 million. So effectively much of the country, we don't know what's happening inside."

2. Scope and Nature of the Protests

• Protest Triggers:
  • Began over crushing economic conditions; now broader anti-theocratic regime sentiment.
  • Online videos show unrest and barricaded streets (unverified by NPR due to blackout).
• Reported Casualties:
  • Over 500 reportedly killed in recent weeks (unconfirmed from U.S.-based human rights activists).
  • Quote (Greg Myre, 04:26): "More than 500 Iranians have been killed now over the past two weeks. These are mostly protesters and some security force members."
• Protesters’ Demands:
  • Two-fold: global connectivity and a democratic transition away from the current regime.
  • Quote (Holly Dogris, 01:22): "What Iranians want are two things. They want to have access to the world, but more importantly, they want a democratic transition."

3. U.S. Reactions and President Trump’s Options

• Weighing a Response:
  • Trump administration is considering both military and non-military options, including cyber, sanctions, and direct intervention.
  • Trump mentioned possible negotiations but indicated action might occur before any talks.
  • Quote (Donald Trump, 01:48): "We may meet with them...but we may have to act because of what's happening before the meeting."
  • Quote (Franco Ordonez, 05:35): "President Trump said Iran is starting to cross his red lines, but he did not say exactly what they're looking at."
• Potential Consequences:
  • Iran has threatened to retaliate against U.S. bases if attacked, but U.S. officials downplay the credibility of these threats.
  • Quote (Nader Habibi, 02:15): "I don't think they are underestimating the risk. That's why they are issuing some threatening postures in terms of retaliation, even though in reality they might not be able to carry out those threats."
  • Quote (Donald Trump, 02:30): "If they do that, we will hit them at levels that they've never been hit before."
• Human Rights vs. Realpolitik:
  • Trump’s intervention is more about strategic interests and preventing Iranian nuclear weapons, not primarily about protecting protesters.
  • Quote (Franco Ordonez, 06:35): "What Trump really wants, and this is something he's wanted for a long time, is a deal that permanently prevents Iran from getting nuclear weapons."
• Discussing Starlink:
  • Trump mentioned discussing with Elon Musk about enabling Starlink to support Iranian protesters' communications (06:35).

4. Feedback from Congress and Allies

• Mixed Reactions:
  • Senator Lindsey Graham advocated for targeting Iranian leadership ("kill the leaders of Iran who are killing protesters", 07:20).
  • Exiled Iranian crown prince urges U.S. intervention.
  • Other lawmakers urge restraint, warning against military action or escalation.

5. Why the Regime is Vulnerable Now

• Regional Setbacks:
  • Loss of proxy allies (Hamas, Hezbollah, Assad in Syria) due to Israeli and U.S. operations in 2023–2024.
  • Airstrikes in June 2025 exposed weaknesses in Iranian nuclear and air defenses.
  • Quote (Greg Myre, 08:02): "It really starts...with the Hamas attack in Israel in October of 2023. Israel's harsh response decimated Hamas...Then, Israel delivered another powerful blow to Hezbollah...Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad fled...Iran invested billions and used these groups to project power in the region. Suddenly they're all gone or badly weakened."
• Compounding Domestic Pressure:
  • Economic woes and now mass protests pose biggest internal challenge since 1979.

6. Regime’s Possible Next Moves

• Crackdown or Concessions:
  • Regime likely to deploy Revolutionary Guards for suppression, as on previous occasions.
  • Underlying economic and political grievances persist, risking further erosion of regime support.
  • Leadership is aging; Supreme Leader Khamenei (86 years old, in power 37 years) seen as out of touch with daily hardships.
  • Quote (Greg Myre, 09:01): "The traditional playbook is to unleash the Revolutionary Guards to crush the protests. That worked previously. It may work again, but it doesn't address the fundamental grievances on living standards."

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "The communications blackout started on Thursday night in Iran. And so it's basically been Thursday since we've heard from them."
  —Holly Dogris, 00:03

• "Even though Trump says Iran is willing to negotiate, I think they're tired of being beat up by the United States."
  —Juana Summers, 01:43

• "If they do that, we will hit them at levels that they've never been hit before."
  —Donald Trump, 02:30

• "This may well be the biggest challenge to the Islamic government since it came to power in 1979."
  —Greg Myre, 04:58

• "What Trump really wants...is a deal that permanently prevents Iran from getting nuclear weapons."
  —Franco Ordonez, 06:35

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Important Time Stamps

• 00:00–01:22: Communications blackout & what is known from the ground
• 04:26–05:28: Details on casualties and context for the protests
• 05:35–07:20: U.S. policy options and Trump’s objectives
• 07:57–09:32: Iran’s strategic vulnerabilities and internal crisis
• 09:01–09:32: Discussion on how the regime might respond

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Conclusion

This episode offers a concise yet comprehensive breakdown of the escalating crisis in Iran: a country cut off from the world, rocked by its biggest challenge in decades, and teetering on the edge of major change. While President Trump weighs high-stakes intervention, the situation on the ground remains opaque and deeply unstable—and the podcast emphasizes the immense uncertainty facing both Iranians and the international community.

Transcript

[Juana Summers]

It is difficult to know what's happening in Iran right now.

[Holly Dogris]

The communications blackout started on Thursday night in Iran. And so it's basically been Thursday since we've heard from them. And it's not just me, it's Iranians across the diaspora around the world.

[Juana Summers]

Holly Dogris is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. She grew up in Iran. Dogras told NPR that she hasn't heard from her family in days because the government there has shut down the Internet and phone communications.

[Holly Dogris]

I know that some people have been able to get a hold of their families and friends. There's been messages pouring in from Starlink if you have a friend, a neighbor or family member. But that's only 50 to 60,000 users across a country of 90 million. So effectively much of the country, we don't know what's happening inside.

[Juana Summers]

What we do know is this. The country has been rocked by days of large anti government protests, first sparked by the crippling economy, now anger at the theocratic reg. Videos posted online show streets where protesters are shouting and clapping and images of barricades and lit fires. NPR has not been able to independently authenticate these videos. More than 500 people have been killed, according to the U. S. Based human rights activist news agency. NPR is unable to independently confirm that figure.

[Holly Dogris]

Right now, what Iranians want are two things. They want to have access to the world, but more importantly, they want a democratic transition. They've been calling for this regime to go for a long time, and now.

[Host/Moderator]

President Trump is considering whether to weigh in and how.

[Juana Summers]

Even though Trump says Iran is willing to negotiate, I think they're tired of.

[Donald Trump]

Being beat up by the United States.

[Juana Summers]

Here's Trump talking to reporters on Air.

[Host/Moderator]

Force One on Sunday night.

[Donald Trump]

We may meet with them. I mean, a meeting is being set up, but we may have to act because of what's happening before the meeting.

[Juana Summers]

And if the United States attacks, Iran has threatened to retaliate. Nader Habibi focuses on Middle east economics at Brandeis University. He told NPR that the regime knows the US could do considerable damage to the ballistic missile facilities and hit political targets.

[Nader Habibi]

I don't think they are underestimating the risk. That's why they are issuing some threatening postures in terms of retaliation, even though in reality they might not be able to carry out those threats.

[Juana Summers]

Here's Trump again.

[Donald Trump]

If they do that, we will hit them at levels that they've never been hit before.

[Host/Moderator]

Consider this.

[Juana Summers]

Sanctions, cyber attacks, military strikes. President Trump keeps suggesting that the United States may get involved if so when and how? From npr, I'm Juana Summers.

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[Juana Summers]

And the United States have been trading threats over the last few days as anti government protests in Iran have killed hundreds of people. For more, we're joined by NPR White House correspondent Franco Ordonez and national security correspondent Greg Myri. Hi to both of you.

[Franco Ordonez]

Hello.

[Greg Myre]

I wanna.

[Host/Moderator]

Greg, I'll start with you.

[Juana Summers]

Tell us what latest is on these protests.

[Greg Myre]

Yeah, the Iranian security forces are using deadly force much more frequently in recent days. More than 500 Iranians have been killed now over the past two weeks. These are mostly protesters and some security force members. This is according to the human rights activists in Iran. They are based here in the US but have monitors in Iran. Now, neither NPR nor other news organization can verify these figures because information is so far fragmented from Iran right now. The government has shut down the Internet for the past several days. We are seeing videos on social media, but very little solid information. Local journalists are restrained. Foreign journalists can't get into the country. And over the years, we've seen several outbursts of these large street demonstrations dating back really to 2009. The latest one erupted over miserable economic conditions, but now there are increasing calls to oust the regime. This may well be the biggest challenge to the Islamic government since it came to power in 1979.

[Host/Moderator]

And as we heard at the top, President Trump says he is looking at all sorts of options in Iran.

[Juana Summers]

Franco, what can you tell us about him?

[Franco Ordonez]

Yeah, President Trump said Iran is starting to cross his red lines, but he did not say exactly what they're looking at. But he and his administration say they are weighing several different possibilities, including military and non military options. And he said after making earlier threats that the leaders of Iran reached out actually over the weekend and want to negotiate. Now his team is working on a meeting, but he also said they might have to act sooner if this violence that Greg is talking about continues. Trump's expected to meet with his national security team tomorrow about Iran. Iran actually has responded as well, warning that US Bases could be considered a legitimate target if the US Goes through with the strike. But Press Secretary Caroline Levitt called those comments laughable today and said on Fox News that the regime is saying one thing publicly and saying something very different privately to the administration.

[Host/Moderator]

But is President Trump's goal really to protect protesters?

[Juana Summers]

I mean, he's not exactly known for fighting for human rights. What kind of deal is he seeking?

[Franco Ordonez]

Yeah, he's definitely not known for fighting for human rights, but let's also remember that he did order military strikes on Syrian targets during his first administration in response to chemical attacks by the Assad regime. At that time, he talked about his red line being crossed as well and specifically cited the image of choking children. Now, today or this weekend, Trump also said he would talk with billionaire Elon Musk about possibly getting Starlink, Musk's satellite Internet service, to help with communications in Iran. But what Trump really wants, and this is something he's wanted for a long time, is a deal that permanently prevents Iran from getting nuclear weapons.

[Host/Moderator]

Franco. What kind of feedback is President Trump getting from Congress, US Allies, other countries in the Middle East?

[Franco Ordonez]

Well, he's always bouncing ideas off his friends and allies. One close ally, Senator Lindsey Graham, for example, is urging Trump to kill, quote, kill the leaders of Iran who are killing protesters. Graham argued on Fox News that taking out the supreme Leaders would lead to peace and a new day in the Middle East. Now, of course, other lawmakers have expressed caution about taking military action. We've also heard one from the exiled crown Prince of Iran who has called on Trump to intervene. Trump was asked if he'd meet with the crown Prince by a conservative radio host, Hugh Hewitt. But Trump said it would not be appropriate right now to do that.

[Host/Moderator]

Greg, if we can, let's just take a step back here and talk about how Iran's leadership has become so vulnerable.

[Greg Myre]

Yeah, Iran has really suffered this series of major setbacks in the past two years, first among its proxy network in the region and now at home. It really starts, Juana, with the Hamas attack in Israel in October of 2023. Israel's harsh response decimated Hamas, which has been supported by Iran. And a year later, the fall of 2024, Israel delivered another powerful blow, this time to Hezbollah and Lebanon, which Iran also backs. Right after that, Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad fled, removing another ally. Iran invested billions and used these groups to project power in the region. Suddenly they're all gone or badly weakened. And then Israel and the US Teamed up and bombed Last June. They hit the nuclear facilities, but they also exposed the weakness of Iran's defenses. And now we're seeing these mass protests challenging the regime.

[Host/Moderator]

And Greg, what options does the Iranian leadership have at this point?

[Greg Myre]

Well, they're limited and they're not good ones. The traditional playbook is to unleash the Revolutionary Guards to crush the protests. That worked previously. It may work again, but it doesn't address the fundamental grievances on living standards. And that will keep eroding any support the regime might have left. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah ali Khamenei is 86. He's been in power 37 years. He's been good at holding power, but he's failed to meet the day to day needs of Iranians.

[Host/Moderator]

NPR's Greg Myhrey and Franco Ordonez. Thanks to both of you.

[Greg Myre]

Sure thing, Juan. Thank you.

[Host/Moderator]

This episode was produced by Karen Zamora.

[Juana Summers]

With audio engineering by Becky Brown and Josephine Nihonai. It was edited by Andrew Sussman, Rebecca Metzler and Courtney Dorning. Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun. It's consider this from npr. I'm Juana Summers.

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