Podcast Summary: Consider This from NPR

Episode: What Do We Know About What's Happening in Iran?

Date: January 12, 2026
Host: Juana Summers
Guests: Holly Dogris (Washington Institute for Near East Policy), Nader Habibi (Brandeis University), Franco Ordonez (NPR White House Correspondent), Greg Myre (NPR National Security Correspondent)

Overview

This episode unpacks the volatile situation in Iran, focusing on a nationwide communication blackout, escalating anti-government protests, and the U.S. response under President Trump. NPR correspondents and policy experts contribute insights into the information vacuum, regional dynamics, protest motivations, and the international ramifications of the latest unrest.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Information Blackout & Communication Crisis

• Widespread Blackout:
  • Since Thursday night, Iran has been under a government-imposed internet and phone blackout. Family members abroad, like expert Holly Dogris, have been unable to reach loved ones.
  • Quote (Holly Dogris, 00:03): "The communications blackout started on Thursday night in Iran. And so it's basically been Thursday since we've heard from them."
• Limited Workarounds:
  • Limited connectivity exists via Starlink, but only for 50,000–60,000 people in a nation of 90 million.
  • Quote (Holly Dogris, 00:30): "That's only 50 to 60,000 users across a country of 90 million. So effectively much of the country, we don't know what's happening inside."

2. Scope and Nature of the Protests

• Protest Triggers:
  • Began over crushing economic conditions; now broader anti-theocratic regime sentiment.
  • Online videos show unrest and barricaded streets (unverified by NPR due to blackout).
• Reported Casualties:
  • Over 500 reportedly killed in recent weeks (unconfirmed from U.S.-based human rights activists).
  • Quote (Greg Myre, 04:26): "More than 500 Iranians have been killed now over the past two weeks. These are mostly protesters and some security force members."
• Protesters’ Demands:
  • Two-fold: global connectivity and a democratic transition away from the current regime.
  • Quote (Holly Dogris, 01:22): "What Iranians want are two things. They want to have access to the world, but more importantly, they want a democratic transition."

3. U.S. Reactions and President Trump’s Options

• Weighing a Response:
  • Trump administration is considering both military and non-military options, including cyber, sanctions, and direct intervention.
  • Trump mentioned possible negotiations but indicated action might occur before any talks.
  • Quote (Donald Trump, 01:48): "We may meet with them...but we may have to act because of what's happening before the meeting."
  • Quote (Franco Ordonez, 05:35): "President Trump said Iran is starting to cross his red lines, but he did not say exactly what they're looking at."
• Potential Consequences:
  • Iran has threatened to retaliate against U.S. bases if attacked, but U.S. officials downplay the credibility of these threats.
  • Quote (Nader Habibi, 02:15): "I don't think they are underestimating the risk. That's why they are issuing some threatening postures in terms of retaliation, even though in reality they might not be able to carry out those threats."
  • Quote (Donald Trump, 02:30): "If they do that, we will hit them at levels that they've never been hit before."
• Human Rights vs. Realpolitik:
  • Trump’s intervention is more about strategic interests and preventing Iranian nuclear weapons, not primarily about protecting protesters.
  • Quote (Franco Ordonez, 06:35): "What Trump really wants, and this is something he's wanted for a long time, is a deal that permanently prevents Iran from getting nuclear weapons."
• Discussing Starlink:
  • Trump mentioned discussing with Elon Musk about enabling Starlink to support Iranian protesters' communications (06:35).

4. Feedback from Congress and Allies

• Mixed Reactions:
  • Senator Lindsey Graham advocated for targeting Iranian leadership ("kill the leaders of Iran who are killing protesters", 07:20).
  • Exiled Iranian crown prince urges U.S. intervention.
  • Other lawmakers urge restraint, warning against military action or escalation.

5. Why the Regime is Vulnerable Now

• Regional Setbacks:
  • Loss of proxy allies (Hamas, Hezbollah, Assad in Syria) due to Israeli and U.S. operations in 2023–2024.
  • Airstrikes in June 2025 exposed weaknesses in Iranian nuclear and air defenses.
  • Quote (Greg Myre, 08:02): "It really starts...with the Hamas attack in Israel in October of 2023. Israel's harsh response decimated Hamas...Then, Israel delivered another powerful blow to Hezbollah...Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad fled...Iran invested billions and used these groups to project power in the region. Suddenly they're all gone or badly weakened."
• Compounding Domestic Pressure:
  • Economic woes and now mass protests pose biggest internal challenge since 1979.

6. Regime’s Possible Next Moves

• Crackdown or Concessions:
  • Regime likely to deploy Revolutionary Guards for suppression, as on previous occasions.
  • Underlying economic and political grievances persist, risking further erosion of regime support.
  • Leadership is aging; Supreme Leader Khamenei (86 years old, in power 37 years) seen as out of touch with daily hardships.
  • Quote (Greg Myre, 09:01): "The traditional playbook is to unleash the Revolutionary Guards to crush the protests. That worked previously. It may work again, but it doesn't address the fundamental grievances on living standards."

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "The communications blackout started on Thursday night in Iran. And so it's basically been Thursday since we've heard from them."
  —Holly Dogris, 00:03

• "Even though Trump says Iran is willing to negotiate, I think they're tired of being beat up by the United States."
  —Juana Summers, 01:43

• "If they do that, we will hit them at levels that they've never been hit before."
  —Donald Trump, 02:30

• "This may well be the biggest challenge to the Islamic government since it came to power in 1979."
  —Greg Myre, 04:58

• "What Trump really wants...is a deal that permanently prevents Iran from getting nuclear weapons."
  —Franco Ordonez, 06:35

Important Time Stamps

• 00:00–01:22: Communications blackout & what is known from the ground
• 04:26–05:28: Details on casualties and context for the protests
• 05:35–07:20: U.S. policy options and Trump’s objectives
• 07:57–09:32: Iran’s strategic vulnerabilities and internal crisis
• 09:01–09:32: Discussion on how the regime might respond

Conclusion

This episode offers a concise yet comprehensive breakdown of the escalating crisis in Iran: a country cut off from the world, rocked by its biggest challenge in decades, and teetering on the edge of major change. While President Trump weighs high-stakes intervention, the situation on the ground remains opaque and deeply unstable—and the podcast emphasizes the immense uncertainty facing both Iranians and the international community.