What happens when democracies use military force to occupy their own territory?

Summary

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Consider This from NPR

Episode: What happens when democracies use military force to occupy their own territory?

Date: September 7, 2025
Host: Scott Detrow
Expert Guest: Robert A. Pape, Professor of Political Science, University of Chicago

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Brief Overview

This episode explores the alarming prospect of a democratic government—specifically the United States—using military force to occupy its own territory. Prompted by President Trump’s inflammatory comments and threat to send federal troops to Chicago, the host interviews Professor Robert A. Pape, a leading scholar on military occupations in democracies, to provide historical context, potential outcomes, and warnings from decades of research. The discussion focuses on the patterns of escalation, the risks to civil liberties, and lessons from other democracies that have turned military force inward.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Escalating Rhetoric from Leadership

• President Trump’s Statements:
  • Trump invoked war imagery (parodying "Apocalypse Now") and announced potential military action in Chicago, referencing a return to a so-called “Department of War.”
    • (“Chicago is about to find out why it’s called the Department of War.” – Donald Trump, 01:06)
  • Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker responded, calling the threat unprecedented and “not normal.”
• Trump later attempted to downplay, stating, “We’re not going to war. We’re going to clean up our cities.” (01:28)

2. Expert Perspective: Extreme Measures in a Democracy

• Unexpected Personal Stakes:

  • Robert Pape expresses shock at discussing military occupation in his own city after studying such scenarios globally.
    • “It is really a surprise. I never would have thought in my 30-year career that we would be talking about the use of heavy military forces in an American city...” (03:17, Robert A. Pape)

• Historical Patterns:

  • Democracies have a history of deploying troops domestically—examples cited, most notably British troops in Northern Ireland.
    • Deployment often starts with rhetorical threats that signal real intent, leading to action.

3. Honeymoon Period vs. Inevitable Tensions

• Initial Calm:
  • Early stages can appear uneventful—even helpful—with troops acting in non-combat roles (e.g., National Guard in D.C.).
    • “That’s the normal honeymoon period of how these go.” (05:09, Robert A. Pape)
• Inevitable Escalation:
  • Civil liberties tend to erode as the military presence continues, especially during politically sensitive times (e.g., election seasons).
• Danger of Indefinite Occupation:
  • Troops’ initial “success” makes withdrawal difficult; the occupation can last far longer than intended.

4. Flashpoints and Catalysts for Violence

• Escalation Triggers:
  • Peaceful protests frequently arise and are often encouraged by local leaders, but are vulnerable to incidents—particularly if military or guardsmen kill a protester.
    • “One of the key flashpoints would be an incident where a member of the Guard or US Military were to kill a protester under any circumstances... That could be incredibly inflammatory.” (06:39, Robert A. Pape)
  • Historical parallel: Kent State, where 4 protesting students were killed by the National Guard in 13 seconds—an infamous incident that shocked the nation.

5. Endings & Lessons from History

• Pattern of Prolonged Conflict:
  • These occupations rarely resolve quickly and often get worse before they end, as seen in Northern Ireland where initial deployment contributed to decades-long unrest.
    • “The most important thing is to keep the presence of the troops as small as possible, as limited as possible, and as short duration as possible...” (07:51, Robert A. Pape)
• Potential for Cycle of Violence:
  • Occupations risk sparking new movements (e.g., Provisional IRA in Northern Ireland) that can dramatically increase violence and instability.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Unthinkable Becoming Reality:
  “It is really a surprise. I never would have thought in my 30 year career that we would be talking about the use of heavy military forces in an American city, let alone the city I've been living in for over 25 years when there's not an emergency.”
  — Robert A. Pape [03:17]

• On the Dangers of Initial Calm:
  “That’s the normal honeymoon period of how these go... but over time the heavy military deployments end up impinging on political liberties, civil liberties.”
  — Robert A. Pape [05:09]

• On Historical Flashpoints:
  “One of the key flashpoints would be an incident where a member of the Guard or US Military were to kill a protester under any circumstances. And that would be caught on tape. That could be incredibly inflammatory. And we need to hearken back to Kent State.”
  — Robert A. Pape [06:39]

• On the Risk of Prolonged Occupation:
  “The most important thing is to keep the presence of the troops as small as possible, as limited as possible, and as short duration as possible, because ... this will tend to escalate.”
  — Robert A. Pape [07:51]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:00–01:38 – Introduction; Trump’s posts and rhetoric; reactions from political leaders
• 03:02 – Conversation begins with Robert A. Pape
• 03:17 – Pape on the shock of being an expert in this moment
• 04:38 – Patterns following leader threats and historical examples
• 05:09 – The “honeymoon period” in military occupations
• 06:16 – Discussion of inflection points and protest escalation
• 06:39 – Kent State analogy and risk of violence
• 07:51 – Ending occupations, lessons and dangers of escalation
• 08:58 – End of interview and show credits

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Takeaways

• The episode serves as a sobering warning, using both current events and history to illuminate how quickly democratic norms can be threatened when political leaders consider military deployments against their own citizens.
• Listeners are reminded that occupations rarely return things to order: instead, they frequently spiral, clamp down on civil liberties, and become difficult to unwind.
• The discussion underscores the profound risks, including the possibility of violent flashpoints that change the course of history.

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Transcript

[Scott Detrow]

On Saturday, President Trump posted an image of himself on social media as a character from the Vietnam War film Apocalypse Now.

[Donald Trump]

I love the smell of my pum in the morning.

[Scott Detrow]

This is a character played by Robert Duvall, who orders an airstrike that kills civilians in Viet Cong alike, trump wrote in that same social media post. I love the smell of deportations in the morning. The president has promised for weeks now to deploy federal troops in the National Guard in Chicago. Here he is in the Oval Office on Tuesday.

[Donald Trump]

There's no place in the world, including you can go to Afghanistan. You can go to places that you would think of. They don't even come close to this. Chicago is a hellhole right now.

[Scott Detrow]

This post was a dramatic escalation of rhetoric against the country's third largest city, and it comes just days after Trump signed an executive order to restyle the Department of Defense.

[Donald Trump]

We won the first World War, we won the Second World War, we won everything before that and in between. And then we decided to go woke and we changed the name to Department of Defense. So we're going Department of War.

[Scott Detrow]

In Saturday's social media post with the Apocalypse now image, Trump wrote, quote, chicago is about to find out why it's called the Department of war. Illinois Governor J.B. pritzker responded by saying, quote, the president of the United States is threatening to go to war with an American city. This is not a joke. This is not normal. Trump backtracked just a bit on Sunday afternoon.

[Donald Trump]

We're not going to war. We're going to clean up our cities. We're going to clean them up so they don't kill five people every weekend.

[Scott Detrow]

That's not war.

[Donald Trump]

That's common sense.

[Host/Interviewer]

Consider this.

[Scott Detrow]

The city of Chicago is on edge as it prepares for the possible deployment of federal troops. With Chicago's residents in the spotlight, some now worry their city could be a powder keg. From npr, I'm Scott Detrow.

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[Scott Detrow]

It's consider this from NPR. Robert A. Pape is a political science professor at the University of Chicago who studies how democratic countries use their militaries domestically. I asked him how it feels to be an expert in that field and talking about his own city.

[Robert A. Pape]

It is really a surprise. I never would have thought in my 30 year career that we would be talking about the use of heavy military forces in an American city, let alone the city I've been living in for over 25 years when there's not an emergency.

[Scott Detrow]

Are there typical patterns that you see.

[Host/Interviewer]

Play out when a leader threatens to occupy territory within his or her own country and uses the military to do that?

[Robert A. Pape]

Yes, there are. So I have been studying not just political violence for 30 years, Scott, but my specialty is studying military occupations and by democracies, looking at cases that existed around going from 1980 to the present. And so a good example of this, for example, would be British troops in Northern Ireland. So once you have political leaders start to talk about this, especially the president or the leader here, you can usually expect some real action. So the idea this is all just a hoax or that President Trump is trolling us and so forth, we can all hope that's that's the case. But since la, where President Trump sent the Guard, federalized Guard and Marines into an American city, unfortunately this has already set off a chain of events. And so. Go ahead, Scott.

[Scott Detrow]

I just want to ask a counterpoint.

[Host/Interviewer]

I'm talking to you from Washington, D.C. where there's been a National Guard deployment for several weeks now, you have certainly seen tension points with federal law enforcement agencies either arresting people on the street or carrying out deportation actions.

[Scott Detrow]

But the National Guard aspect of this.

[Host/Interviewer]

I mean, by and large there hasn't really been attention points. You've seen a lot of guardsmen carrying around. There's been pictures of them picking up trash on the National Mall. It doesn't really seem to have escalated. And I'm wondering if that surprises you.

[Robert A. Pape]

That's the normal honeymoon period of how these go. In fact, the British, when they sent troops into Northern Ireland in August 1969, they went on a de escalation mission. And for the initial period, you know, initial weeks and even several months it looked like that was actually panning out, but in fact, what happens over time is the heavy military deployments end up impinging on political liberties, civil liberties. In the case of Chicago, for example, we will in March we have our primary elections. Well, that means that the election season for those primaries has already effectively begun and will. Will be ramping up even more so as time goes on. There is a shift of balance between the original purpose of what the. The troops were going in to do with the problem that you can't just yank them out, or else that the original. The gains kind of disappear.

[Host/Interviewer]

When you look at the patterns you've studied over the years, what are the moments that you'll be looking out for? You know, I'm thinking about somebody attacks an occupying soldier in one way or another, and that leads to a much more intense crackdown. Right. An escalation of force. Northern Ireland is an example of that. Right. Like, what are the other things that you look for that you see play out?

[Robert A. Pape]

There's several things to look for is, number one, the rise of peaceful protests. And you would expect them to be initially peaceful. And Governor Pritzker and Mary Brandon Johnson have definitely stressed that. But the problem I'm going to be looking for in the weeks to follow after that, is there any incidents that start to escalate? What I'm really concerned about, one of the key flashpoints would be an incident where a member of the Guard or US Military were to kill a protester under any circumstances whatsoever. And that would be caught on tape. That could be incredibly inflammatory. And we need to hearken back to Kent State. So what happened in Kent State is that there was a deployment of National Guard on a college campus, and in just 13 seconds, four people were killed. And that created an enormous uproar. Well, this could be even worse.

[Host/Interviewer]

What, if anything, can you tell us about the way that these end. Are there, Are there trend lines? Is it overreach that leads to political backlash? Is there anything that you could look for to kind of get out of these scenarios?

[Robert A. Pape]

Well, the biggest thing that we see is that things tend to get a lot worse before they come to an end. What you saw in the case of, say, Northern Ireland is that things didn't come to an end for decades. So this went on for quite a period of time. That is, the initial British troops went into Northern Ireland after four months. It didn't happen right away. The Provisional IRA was formed. And the purpose of the Provisional IRA was to use military force against the British troops to get them out. Well, that then created its own cycle of violence that went on for a long period of time. I think that the most important thing is to keep the presence of the troops as small as possible, as limited as possible, and as short duration as possible, because as the weeks and months go on and as this inevitably starts to impinge on political liberties, this will tend to escalate. And the exact trajectory of where this is heading after, say, four to six months is just not clear.

[Scott Detrow]

That's Robert A. Pape, professor of political science at the University of Chicago, where.

[Host/Interviewer]

He directs the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. Thanks so much for joining us.

[Robert A. Pape]

Yeah, thank you, Scott.

[Scott Detrow]

That was Professor Robert A. Pape at the University of Chicago, where he directs the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. His essay Chicago Could Be a Powder Keg appeared in the New York Times. This episode was produced by Henry Larson and Avery Keatley. It was edited by Sarah Handel and Sarah Robbins, our executive producer, and Sami Yenigun. It's Consider this from npr. I'm Scott Detrow.

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