What this week’s elections could mean for the midterms

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Consider This from NPR

Episode: What This Week’s Elections Could Mean for the Midterms
Date: November 7, 2025
Host: Juana Summers
Guests: Domenico Montanaro (Senior Political Editor & Correspondent), Tamara Keith (Senior White House Correspondent)

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Episode Overview

This episode focuses on the results of the recent off-year elections, which saw significant Democratic victories in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City. The discussion explores whether these results point to a broader trend leading into the 2026 midterm elections, how both major political parties are interpreting the outcomes, and what strategic adjustments might be on the horizon for Democrats and Republicans.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Initial Reactions to Election Results

• Democratic Wins: Democrats secured key victories—mayor in New York City, governor in New Jersey, and Virginia.
• Both parties are assigning meaning (or dismissing significance) to these wins in relation to the upcoming midterms.
• Quote (00:10): “We analyze elections and we pretend to know what's going to happen a year from now. But the truth is the headlines will change so many times between now and the midterm elections in November of 2026.”
  — Larry Sabato (via Domenico Montanaro)

2. Political Spin from Both Parties

• Democratic Perspective:
  • Many see the election as a referendum on Donald Trump and the current administration’s handling of key issues.
  • Quote (00:32): “This was a sign that voters are unhappy with the current administration. The status quo is not working for voters. It was very much a referendum on Trump.”
• Republican Response:
  • Downplaying the results as typical ("blue states elected blue leaders") and not predictive for the midterms.
  • Quote (00:57): “Off year election results in isolated places are never indicative of the upcoming midterm election. The GOP is in excellent position to win big next year.”
    — House Speaker Mike Johnson (via Domenico Montanaro)

3. How Democrats Are Feeling and Their Strategy Going Forward

• Mood Shift: After tough losses, Democrats sense renewed momentum and unity—especially around cost-of-living concerns.
• Quote (04:01): “The Democratic Party is back. The Democratic Party is a party of affordability, and the Democratic Party is full steam ahead to take back Congress next year.”
  — Ken Martin, Democratic National Committee Chairman
• Key Message: Affordability and cost of living are unifying themes across ideological lines in the party.
• Democrats aim to avoid fractious debates on social issues and climate, staying focused on economic messaging.
• Quote (05:42): “He [John Lawrence, fmr. Pelosi chief of staff] says Democrats just need to stick with this affordability message going into the midterms, cost of living, groceries, power bills, housing costs, and not let themselves get distracted by social issues or climate change or the democracy stuff.”
  — Tamara Keith

4. Republican Strategy and Challenges

• Trump’s Take: Trump claims to have improved the economy but voters feel differently, especially regarding everyday expenses.
• Quote (06:07): “Trump won in 2024 because of the cost of living and he promised to fix it. But what he qualifies as a great economy isn't resonating with voters.”
  — Domenico Montanaro
• Messaging Gap: Trump and GOP leadership tend to focus on macro indicators (like the stock market, gas prices), but voters are experiencing higher living costs, partly due to tariffs.
• Candidate Challenges: Republican candidates in swing districts may need to differentiate themselves from Trump without completely alienating his base.
• Quote (07:44): “Especially in the blue and purple states, there has to be some differentiation from Trump. Doesn’t mean you have to completely distance yourself, but... show some level of independence and some level of individuality.”
  — Mike Du, Republican strategist (via Domenico Montanaro)
• Recognizes the era of the "celebrity politician" and voter frustration with those in power, regardless of party.

5. Broader Electoral Dynamics and Leadership Uncertainties

• Presidential Approval Trend: Six of the last seven midterm elections had presidents with approval below 50%, setting up a tough landscape for the party in power.
• Democratic Leadership: Lacks a single, clear national figure, which could be decided by the next presidential primary.
• Republican Identity Post-Trump: Uncertainty remains about the GOP’s direction after Trump, given his demands for loyalty.
• Quote (09:19): “In this era of anger and skepticism at presidents, being out of power gives the advantage to Democrats heading into next year's midterms.”
  — Domenico Montanaro

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• 00:10 — Larry Sabato: “We analyze elections and we pretend to know what's going to happen a year from now... the headlines will change so many times between now and the midterm elections.”
• 04:01 — Ken Martin: “The Democratic Party is back. The Democratic Party is a party of affordability, and the Democratic Party is full steam ahead to take back Congress next year.”
• 05:28 — Domenico Montanaro: “For all the focus on on Mamdani, if you listen to Spamberger or Sheryl's acceptance speeches, they're all talking the same language... they're talking about affordability.”
• 06:07 — Domenico Montanaro: “Trump won in 2024 because of the cost of living and he promised to fix it. But what he qualifies as a great economy isn't resonating with voters.”
• 07:44 — Mike Du: “Especially in the blue and purple states, there has to be some differentiation from Trump. Doesn’t mean you have to completely distance yourself, but there has to be... some level of individuality.”
• 09:19 — Domenico Montanaro: “In this era of anger and skepticism at presidents, being out of power gives the advantage to Democrats heading into next year's midterms.”

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:00 — Episode opens with major Democratic victories and what they might signal
• 03:07 — Juana Summers recaps the election results and introduces Domenico Montanaro and Tamara Keith for analysis
• 03:43 — Breakdown of Democratic morale post-election
• 04:38 — Discussion of ideological diversity and unifying economic messaging
• 05:57 — Impact of Trump’s economic claims and their resonance with voters
• 06:27-07:36 — GOP strategy and Trump’s influence over party messaging
• 07:44-09:19 — Challenges facing both parties, historic trends, and outlook for the midterms

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Conclusion

This episode of Consider This provides a well-rounded, candid look at the 2025 off-year political landscape. While both parties are busy spinning the narrative, the real takeaway is the importance of economic issues, particularly affordability and cost of living, to voters. Regardless of partisan bluster, both Democrats and Republicans must adjust their approaches for the midterms in a political environment increasingly defined by economic anxieties and skepticism towards those in power.

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Transcript

[Juana Summers]

It might have been an off year election, but this week Democratic candidates won marquee races in New Jersey, Virginia and New York City. So does their big night mean something bigger?

[Domenico Montanaro]

Well, we're all going to pretend it does because that's what we do.

[Juana Summers]

That's Larry Sabato, a professor of politics at the University of Virginia, speaking with my colleague Layla Fadel.

[Domenico Montanaro]

We analyze elections and we pretend to know what's going to happen a year from now. But the truth is the headlines will change so many times between now and and the midterm elections in November of 2026.

[Juana Summers]

That hasn't stopped Democrats and Republicans from making meaning out of the results. For Democrats like California Attorney General Rob Bonta, this was a sign that voters are unhappy with the current administration. The status quo is not working for voters. It was very much a referendum on Trump. He wasn't on the ballot, but he was essentially on the ballot. Meanwhile, most Republicans are downplaying the results. House Speaker Mike Johnson during a news conference on Thursday.

[Domenico Montanaro]

This is not a surprise to us. I mean, blue states elected blue leaders. I mean that. Yeah, so what? Off year election results in isolated places are never indicative of the upcoming midterm election. The GOP is in excellent position to win big next year.

[Juana Summers]

But whether Tuesday night was a blip or a turning point, both parties have to figure out where they go from here. Trump got that started. A breakfast with Republican senators on Wednesday.

[Domenico Montanaro]

I don't think it was good for Republicans. I don't think it was good. I'm not sure it was good for anybody. But we had an interesting evening and we learned a lot. And we're going to talk about that.

[Juana Summers]

And we're going to talk about it, too. Consider this. It's now less than a year from the midterms. How are the major political parties looking to ramp up the votes? From npr, I'm Juana Summers.

[Tamara Keith]

I'm Rachel Martin. If you're tired of small talk, check out the Wild Card Podcast. I invite influential thinkers to open up about the big topics we all think about, but rarely talk about. Tune in this fall to hear Mel Robbins, Malala Yousafzai, and Brene Brown talk about everything from grief and God to ambition and forgiveness. Watch or listen on the NPR app, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Hi, it's Terry Gross, host of Fresh Air. Hey. Take a break from the 24 hour news cycle with us and listen to long form interviews with your favorite authors, actors, filmmakers, comedians and musicians. The people making the art that nourishes us and speaks to our times. So listen to the Fresh AIR podcast from NPR and whyy.

[Tamara Keith]

There is so much happening in politics in any given week, you might need help putting it all in perspective as your week draws to a close. Join the NPR Politics podcast team for our weekly roundup. Here, our best political reporters zoom into the biggest stories of the week, not just what they mean, but what they mean for you all in under 30 minutes. Listen to the weekly roundup Friday on the NPR Politics podcast.

[Juana Summers]

It's consider this from npr. The elections this week were the first time that voters got to register how they're feeling a year after President Trump's election. And the answer was clear. They are not happy with the party in power. Now both Republicans and Democrats are reflecting on where they are and what they need to do to win in the future. NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Monaro and senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith are reflecting on that, too. And they're here to talk about it. Hi there.

[Tamara Keith]

Hello.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Great to be with you.

[Juana Summers]

So, guys, Democrats had a huge week, big wins for mayor in New York City, governor in New Jersey as well as in Virginia. How are they feeling going forward?

[Tamara Keith]

Democrats got their groove back at least a little bit after last year's bruising losses. They spent months in the political wilderness, but now they feel like they have a roadmap out. Just listen to Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin in a call earlier this week.

[Domenico Montanaro]

The Democratic Party is back. The Democratic Party is a party of affordability, and the Democratic Party is full steam ahead to take back Congress next year.

[Tamara Keith]

Winning is one heck of a drag.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Yeah. And this is a lesson, look, that they Learned from the 2024 election. You know, a lot of people felt like it was too esoteric, focused in many respects on Trump and democracy. You know, Kamala Harris, as the Democratic candidate, tried on the economy and inflation. But it's a lot harder to win and make the focus on affordability when you're in charge and people are upset. The state of the cost of living. And it's a message that Democrats are coalescing around now no matter who that candidate is.

[Juana Summers]

And there was a lot of ideological diversity among the Democratic Party candidates who won. How's the party handling that?

[Tamara Keith]

Yeah, it's easy to look at the election of Democratic socialists Zoran Mamdani in New York City and moderates Abigail Spanberger and Mikey Sherrill in Virginia and New Jersey and say, wow, this party is split between progressives and moderates. But there is actually a through line which Martin referenced. It's the that affordability thing. And there's an analogy here to 2006, when Democrats were still licking their wounds from George W. Bush's reelection and voters were in a foul mood. Democrats coalesced behind a clear and simple message. John Lawrence was chief of staff to Nancy Pelosi, who became speaker of the House after that election. And he says Democrats need to do the same thing now. And he even has some hope that they will.

[Domenico Montanaro]

For all the focus on on Mamdani, if you listen to Spamberger or Sheryl's acceptance speeches, they're all talking the same language. I mean, they're not talking about free buses or rent control, but that doesn't matter. They're talking about affordability.

[Tamara Keith]

He says Democrats just need to stick with this affordability message going into the midterms, cost of living, groceries, power bills, housing costs, and not let themselves get distracted by social issues or climate change or the democracy stuff.

[Juana Summers]

Right. But as you guys well know, President Trump in his campaign, he specifically promised he would fix the economy. He claims now that he has, but that's not what voters are saying they feel. So what does this mean for Republicans?

[Domenico Montanaro]

Yeah, I mean, Trump won in 2024 because of the cost of living and he promised to fix it. But what he qualifies as a great economy isn't resonating with voters. And that was clearly the case in these off year elections. For Trump, it's all about things like the stock market and gas prices, but those are not everything. And his tariffs have actively made things more expensive.

[Juana Summers]

Is the White House acknowledging that, though?

[Tamara Keith]

One of the president's top political advisers said this week that Trump will be pivoting to talk more about the cost of living. But he's been talking about it a lot this week, actually, as if it isn't a real problem.

[Domenico Montanaro]

I don't want to hear about the affordability because right now we're much less. If you look at energy, we're getting close to $2 a gallon gasoline.

[Tamara Keith]

That was Trump last night at a dinner for Central Asian leaders. And he really seemed to dismiss the concern about the cost of living as a messaging problem.

[Domenico Montanaro]

The affordability is much with the Republicans. The only problem is the Republicans don't talk about it. And Republicans should start talking about it and use their heads because we have great numbers, we have greatest and they're going to only get better.

[Tamara Keith]

He says the numbers are going to get better because his tariff policies will ultimately improve the US Economy, though that's really not clear at this point right now. Trump is facing some of the same issues that President Biden did, which is that you can't credibly tell people that the economic fundamentals are strong and inflation is slowing down if out in their real lives, they are experiencing sticker shock.

[Juana Summers]

Right. And when we get to the midterms, Republicans will still be in charge. President Trump himself won't be on the ballot, though. So what dynamic does this create for Republican candidates?

[Domenico Montanaro]

Yeah, I mean, no matter what they do, Republicans are gonna be tied to Trump. But in those swing districts, they're gonna likely have to try, if the affordability environment doesn't change, to try to distance themselves somewhat from Trump. Here's Republican strategist Mike Du, a former political director at the Republican National Committee, making that point. Especially in the blue and purple states, there has to be some differentiation from Trump. Doesn't mean you have to completely distance yourself, but there has to be something where you show some level of independence and some level of individuality. Another part of the problem here for Republicans is that they can't actually be Donald Trump. Most candidates have to realize, like, you're not Donald Trump. You were not on The Apprentice for 10 years. You were not a star on the WWE. Your name is not on buildings. So it's really an era where of the celebrity politician, but it's also an era of anger at whoever's in charge. You know, again, 2006 was a marker for the beginning of this trend. You know, consider that six of the last seven midterm elections have had presidents with approval ratings under 50%. And we're moving toward that again with Trump.

[Tamara Keith]

Yeah, this is a problem that Democrats had when President Obama was in office. He was a turnout machine, but only when he was on the ballot. And the party had major losses at the state and even local level during his presidency. Right now, Democrats do not have an obvious leader that will likely be decided by the presidential primary over the next two and a half years. And it's not clear what a post Trump Republican Party looks like either, because he has demanded absolute loyalty and fealty from members of his party.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Right now. In this era of anger and skepticism at presidents, being out of power gives the advantage to Democrats heading into next year's midterms.

[Juana Summers]

NPR's Domenico Montanaro and Tamara Keith. Thanks to both of you.

[Tamara Keith]

You're welcome.

[Domenico Montanaro]

You got it.

[Juana Summers]

This episode was produced by Michael Levitt, Casey Morell, Connor Donovan and Karen Zamora. It was edited by Kelsey Snell and Patrick Jaranwattanan. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigun. Thank you to our Consider this Plus listeners who support the work of NPR journalists and help keep public radio strong. Supporters also hear every episode without messages from sponsors. You can Learn more at plus.NPR.org It's Consider this from NPR. I'm Juana Summers.

[Domenico Montanaro]

On this week's books we've loved. We're headed to the Open Range with Morning Edition's Michelle Martin to break down Charles Portis classic True Grit. Find books we've loved in NPR's Book of the Day podcast feed on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Juana Summers]

Keeping up with the news can feel like a 24 hour job. Luckily, it is our job. Every hour on the NPR News now podcast, we take the latest, most important stories happening and we package them into five minute episodes so you can easily squeeze them in between meetings. And on your way to that thing, listen to the NPR News now podcast now. Want to hear this podcast without sponsor breaks?

[Domenico Montanaro]

Amazon prime members can listen to Consider.

[Juana Summers]

This sponsor free through Amazon Music.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Or you can also support NPR's vital.

[Juana Summers]

Journalism and get consider this [e-mail] that's plus.NPR.org.