What we know about the nuclear deal between the US and Saudi Arabia

Summary

Consider This from NPR: "What We Know About the Nuclear Deal Between the US and Saudi Arabia"

Date: July 22, 2026
Host: Juana Summers
Guest: Matthew Bunn (Nuclear proliferation expert, Harvard Belfer Center; former White House advisor)

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Episode Overview

In this episode, NPR’s Juana Summers examines the newly announced nuclear agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia. The deal, which still requires Congressional review, would enable Saudi Arabia to develop a civilian nuclear energy program with US technology. However, the agreement has sparked immediate debate over potential nuclear proliferation risks and its broader implications for regional security and US foreign policy.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Why Does Saudi Arabia Want a Civilian Nuclear Program?

• Saudi Arabia’s Official Stance:

  • To meet rising domestic energy demands.
  • To free up more oil for export and thus revenue.
  • “They say that they would like to make nuclear energy to cover their domestic needs so they can export more of their oil and make more money.”
    — Matthew Bunn [02:18]

• Underlying Motives:

  • To lay a foundation for future weapon capabilities, should they feel the need.
  • “But they also want to provide the foundation over time for having more options to move toward nuclear weapons should they feel the need.”
    — Matthew Bunn [02:22]

2. Why is the US Willing to Support Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Ambitions?

• Strategic Partnership:
  • Maintaining strong US-Saudi relations due to Saudi Arabia’s significant role in global oil markets.
• Economic & Environmental Factors:
  • Opportunity for American nuclear firms.
  • Desire to promote civilian nuclear energy for energy poverty and climate change mitigation.
  • “The United States, first of all, wants a strong relationship with the kingdom, given its vast oil reserves… US has nuclear companies that would like the business and would like to see nuclear energy… expand.”
    — Matthew Bunn [02:43]

3. Safeguards & Non-Proliferation Concerns

• Lack of Established Safeguards:
  • The Trump administration abandoned the previous US demand for Saudi Arabia to accept the Additional Protocol—an enhanced inspection regime by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
  • Instead, a yet-undisclosed bilateral inspection arrangement is in place, which only applies to US-provided technology.
  • “Trump administration dropped an insistence… international inspections… Instead… worked out a bilateral US-Saudi set of inspection arrangements... not yet been revealed to the public.”
    — Matthew Bunn [03:23]

4. Is This Deal Proliferation-Proof?

• Official US Position:
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio has publicly stated that the US will not sign any deal that increases proliferation risks.
• Reality Check:
  • According to Bunn, the deal lacks the tough restrictions—such as bans on enrichment and reprocessing and acceptance of far-reaching inspections—that previous US positions required.
  • “Saudi Arabia hasn’t agreed to any of that in this deal.”
    — Matthew Bunn [04:18]

5. What If Saudi Arabia Secretly Pursues Nuclear Weapons?

• Existing Global Safeguards:
  • Only nine states currently possess nuclear arms.
  • US intelligence and pressure play key roles in deterring proliferation.
• Risks Remain:
  • Granting uranium enrichment capability still poses new risks.
  • “Still agreeing to this kind of agreement… especially if it leads to selling Saudi Arabia uranium enrichment technology… does pose some increased risks.”
    — Matthew Bunn [05:02]

6. Regional Reactions and Broader Implications

• Regional Nuclear Dynamics:

  • Iran already has uranium enrichment capability, which partly motivates Saudi Arabia’s interest.
  • Israel is known to have nuclear weapons (though unacknowledged officially).
  • “The region is already dealing with Iran’s capability. And also of course, Israel… has a nuclear weapons capability.”
    — Matthew Bunn [05:58]

• Impact on the US-Iran Relationship:

  • Could hinder efforts to negotiate stricter nuclear controls with Iran.
  • “If Saudi Arabia isn’t agreeing… far reaching international inspections… it'll be hard to get Iran to agree to accept this.”
    — Matthew Bunn [06:32]

7. Congressional Review & Political Prospects

• How the Deal Moves Forward:
  • Under the Atomic Energy Act, the deal proceeds unless a two-thirds Congressional majority votes to block it.
  • Such a level of opposition is considered unlikely.
  • “The only way they stop it is if there’s a two thirds majority against it in both houses… That seems unlikely.”
    — Matthew Bunn [06:59]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “But they also want to provide the foundation over time for having more options to move toward nuclear weapons should they feel the need.”
  — Matthew Bunn [02:22]

• “Trump administration dropped an insistence on… the Additional Protocol. Instead… a bilateral US-Saudi set of inspection arrangements… not yet revealed to the public.”
  — Matthew Bunn [03:23]

• “Saudi Arabia hasn’t agreed to any of that in this deal.”
  — Matthew Bunn [04:18]

• “If Saudi Arabia moved in this direction, the United States would have a variety of tools to try to pressure them. But still… does pose some increased risks.”
  — Matthew Bunn [05:02]

• “If Saudi Arabia isn’t agreeing… to the additional Protocol, it'll be hard to get Iran to agree to accept this.”
  — Matthew Bunn [06:32]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:50] – Start of Main Segment
• [02:12] – Why Saudi Arabia Wants Civilian Nuclear Power
• [02:43] – Why the US Would Support the Deal
• [03:23] – Safeguards and Inspectors
• [04:18] – Are Strong Safeguards Included?
• [05:02] – Risks of Nuclear Proliferation
• [05:58] – Regional Implications
• [06:32] – Impact on Iran Negotiations
• [06:59] – Congressional Review Process

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Summary

This episode of Consider This dives into the details of a controversial nuclear cooperation agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia, shedding light on both motivating factors and unresolved risks. While the US stands to benefit economically and diplomatically, safeguards against proliferation appear weaker than in past deals, raising questions about both regional security and the future of US nuclear diplomacy. The fate of the agreement could hinge not on political consensus but Congressional inaction, making its future uncertain yet likely.

Transcript

[Juana Summers]

It's Consider this where every day we go deep on one big news story today, a landmark nuclear deal between the US And Saudi Arabia. It would allow Saudi Arabia to build a nuclear program for civilian purposes like energy development. The agreement would need approval from Congress, but already questions about nuclear weapons have come up. Here's Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday. Suffice it to say the US Is

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not going to reach any agreement with

[Matthew Bunn]

any country in the world that leads

[Juana Summers]

to the risk of proliferation. Consider this, the US And Saudi Arabia have reached an agreement about developing a nuclear program. What do we know about it and how could it affect the region? From npr, I'm Juana Summers.

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[Juana Summers]

It's Consider this from npr. The US And Saudi Arabia have agreed to the development of a nuclear program. The US Would provide technology for the Saudis to develop a civilian nuclear program. Matthew Bunn is a former advisor to the White House's Office of Science and Technology Policy and the Clinton administration. He's now a nuclear proliferation expert at Harvard University. Hi Matthew.

[Matthew Bunn]

Good to be here.

[Juana Summers]

So just start by telling us, if you can, why does Saudi Arabia say it wants a civilian nuclear program?

[Matthew Bunn]

Well, they say that they would like to make nuclear energy to cover their domestic needs so they can export more of their oil and make more money. But they also want to provide the foundation over time for having more options to move toward nuclear weapons should they feel the need.

[Juana Summers]

And on the flip side, then why would the United States want to provide the kingdom with nuclear technology?

[Matthew Bunn]

Well, the United States, first of all, wants a strong relationship with the kingdom, given its vast oil reserves and role in the global oil market. But secondly, the United States has nuclear companies that would like the business and would like to See nuclear energy around the world expand to help cope with both energy poverty and climate change.

[Juana Summers]

And what kinds of rules or safeguards perhaps could be put into a deal that would prevent Saudi Arabia from using this technology to develop weapons versus the goal of developing a civilian nuclear program.

[Matthew Bunn]

Well, unfortunately, the Trump administration dropped an insistence on what the United States has been insisting with many countries that they accept the broader set of international inspections included in what's called the Additional Protocol. Instead, the Trump administration has worked out a bilateral US Saudi set of inspection arrangements that haven't yet been revealed to the public exactly what they are, but apply only to what the US Would provide, not to the overall nuclear program in Saudi Arabia.

[Juana Summers]

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that the US Would not sign any deal that would lead to nuclear proliferation. But from what you understand at this point, are those safeguards included in this deal?

[Matthew Bunn]

So when Secretary Rubio was a senator, he co sponsored legislation that would have required before any nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia could go into force, that Saudi Arabia confessed to the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, the journalist, and accept the far reaching inspections called for under what's called the Additional Protocol and accept a ban on both uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing, the key technologies you can use to make nuclear weapons material. And Saudi Arabia hasn't agreed to any of that in this deal.

[Juana Summers]

What happens if Saudi Arabia were to begin working on a weapon in secret? Is there anything that the United States or anyone else could do to stop them?

[Matthew Bunn]

Well, there is a global effort to stem the spread of nuclear weapons that has been strikingly successful. There's only nine states that have nuclear arms today. And U.S. intelligence and U.S. pressure and U.S. military capabilities have been an important part of that global effort. I think it's very likely that if Saudi Arabia moved in this direction, the United States would have a variety of tools to try to pressure them. But still, still agreeing to this kind of an agreement, especially if it does lead to selling Saudi Arabia the uranium enrichment technology that would allow them to make bomb material, does pose some increased risks.

[Juana Summers]

I mean, we're still learning a lot here. But I wonder how you might expect other countries in the region would react to this news.

[Matthew Bunn]

Well, the reality is Iran already has a uranium enrichment program. That's part of the focus on, of the ongoing war with Iran and it's part of the reason why Saudi Arabia wants to have comparable capabilities. So the region is already dealing with Iran's capability. And also of course, Israel, although it doesn't acknowledge them, has a nuclear weapons capability.

[Juana Summers]

And in the short term, do you think this could have an impact on the course of the US War with Iran?

[Matthew Bunn]

I think it may make negotiating a reasonable deal with Iran more difficult. If Saudi Arabia isn't agreeing, for example, to the far reaching international inspections called for the additional Protocol, it'll be hard to get Iran to agree to accept this.

[Juana Summers]

Do you have any sense of the likelihood of the type of support that this agreement would get in Congress, which I believe would have to review it?

[Matthew Bunn]

So the way the deal works under the Atomic Energy act, it goes to Congress for review, but if they do nothing, it goes into force. The only way they stop it is if there's a two thirds majority against it in both houses of Congress able to override a presidential veto. That seems unlikely.

[Juana Summers]

We've been speaking with Matthew Bunn of the Belfer center at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. Thanks so much.

[Matthew Bunn]

Thank you.

[Juana Summers]

This episode was produced by Chris Harlan Dunaway and Tyler Bartlam. It was edited by Patrick Jaranwattanan and tenbeat Ermias. Our interim executive producer is Courtney Dornan. It's Consider this from npr, I'm Juana Summers.

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