What's at stake in the conflict between Israel and Iran?

Summary

Consider This from NPR: What's at Stake in the Conflict Between Israel and Iran?

Release Date: June 17, 2025

In this episode of NPR’s “Consider This,” host Mary Louise Kelly delves into the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, examining the historical context, current developments, and the broader implications for regional and global security. Featuring insights from Aaron Stein, president of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, the discussion unpacks the complex dynamics surrounding nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.

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Introduction: Escalation of Conflict

The episode opens with Mary Louise Kelly outlining the recent surge in missile exchanges between Israel and Iran. Highlighting President Joe Biden's firm stance, she quotes him:

“Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. We don’t have to go too deep into it. They just can’t have a nuclear weapon.” ([00:25] - [00:29])

Kelly emphasizes that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities has been a longstanding U.S. policy, mirroring Israel's security concerns.

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Historical Context: U.S. Policy and the Iran Nuclear Deal

Kelly provides a brief history of U.S. involvement in curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, referencing key moments such as President Bill Clinton’s 1995 announcement to cut off all trade and investment with Iran ([00:45] – [01:13]). She moves forward to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal under President Obama, noting its objectives to increase inspections and limit Iran’s nuclear activities.

Aaron Stein adds context by explaining the deal’s significance:

“With this deal, Iran will face more inspections than any other country in the world.” ([01:24] – [01:29])

However, Stein points out President Trump’s dismantling of the agreement, setting the stage for the current tensions.

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Israel's Preemptive Actions and Nuclear Policy

As tensions rise, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declares a preemptive strike to neutralize Iran’s nuclear threat:

“This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat.” ([03:59] – [04:02])

Aaron Stein discusses Israel’s unique position as the only country in the region with undeclared nuclear weapons. He explains Israel’s policy of opacity:

“It's like Fight Club, the movie, which is like everybody, the first rule of Fight Club, that you don't talk about Fight Club. The first rule of Israeli nuclear weapons is that you don't really talk about them in public, even though everybody knows that you have them.” ([05:15] – [05:33])

Stein elaborates on how this strategy is intended to deter adversaries without provoking a nuclear arms race.

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Iran’s Nuclear Capabilities and Intentions

Kelly inquires about Iran’s current status regarding nuclear weapons. Stein provides a nuanced perspective:

“Iran had an active nuclear weapons program up until 2003. The US intelligence say that Iran halted that nuclear weapons program, which I like to think of as a pause.” ([05:45] – [06:21])

He asserts that while Iran possesses the necessary infrastructure and material, their program was paused, implying potential future developments if tensions persist.

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Risk of a Middle Eastern Nuclear Arms Race

The conversation shifts to the broader regional implications. Stein warns of the dangers of nuclear proliferation in an already volatile region:

“The allure of nuclear weapons as sort of the symbol to deter conflict from external actors becomes all enticing for people in the Middle East, but also for other non-nuclear countries around the world.” ([08:00] – [08:48])

He highlights the historical attempts by other nations, such as Libya and Iraq, to develop nuclear capabilities, and the risks associated with the spread of nuclear technology.

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International Responses and Non-Proliferation Efforts

Kelly brings up the recent G7 statement affirming Israel’s right to defend itself while reiterating that Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons:

“Israel has a right to defend itself. It also reads, Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.” ([10:23] – [10:48])

Stein critiques the message, noting the challenges for non-nuclear states in the Middle East who have committed to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) but are under pressure to develop their own capabilities:

“All of the countries in the Middle East with the exception of Israel actually are signatories to the Non Proliferation Treaty... they had foregone their ability to acquire nuclear weapons.” ([10:48] – [11:35])

He underscores the complexities of enforcing non-proliferation in a region rife with mistrust and strategic rivalries.

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Future Outlook: Potential Developments and Challenges

As the episode nears its conclusion, Stein discusses possible future scenarios and the effectiveness of Israel’s military actions in disabling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure:

“If they don't get after certain nuclear facilities and Iran has the capability at the end of this thing to rapidly build a nuclear weapon, I will have judged this a failure on the Israeli side.” ([07:15] – [07:43])

He also touches on Saudi Arabia's aspirations and the potential for intensified negotiations or further conflicts, emphasizing the precarious balance of power in the region.

Finally, Stein reflects on the enduring challenges of nuclear deterrence and the importance of international cooperation to prevent a nuclear arms race:

“The barriers to build nuclear weapons are not what they once were.” ([08:48] – [09:22])

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Conclusion

Mary Louise Kelly wraps up the discussion by reiterating the high stakes involved in the Israel-Iran conflict, not just for the nations directly engaged but for global security. The episode underscores the intricate interplay between military actions, nuclear policy, and international diplomacy in shaping the future of the Middle East.

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Notable Quotes:

• President Joe Biden: “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. We don’t have to go too deep into it. They just can’t have a nuclear weapon.” ([00:25] – [00:29])
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: “This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat.” ([03:59] – [04:02])
• Aaron Stein: “It's like Fight Club... the first rule of Israeli nuclear weapons is that you don't really talk about them in public...” ([05:15] – [05:33])
• Aaron Stein: “The allure of nuclear weapons as sort of the symbol to deter conflict from external actors becomes all enticing for people in the Middle East...” ([08:00] – [08:48])

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This comprehensive analysis by NPR’s “Consider This” provides listeners with a deep understanding of the Israel-Iran conflict, the historical efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation, and the potential ramifications for international stability.

Transcript

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[Mary Louise Kelly]

As Israel and Iran continue to exchange deadly missile salvos, President Trump had a straightforward message. This is him speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One early Tuesday morning.

[President Joe Biden]

Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.

[Aaron Stein]

It's very simple.

[President Joe Biden]

We don't have to go too deep into it. They just can't have a nuclear weapon.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. That has been US Policy for decades. Same with US Ally Israel. Since Iran was first suspected of working towards a nuclear weapon, we have refused.

[President Joe Biden]

To cooperate with Iran on sensitive matters such as nuclear energy and have tightened trade restrictions on items that might be used to build weapons.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Then President Bill Clinton in 1995 speaking at an event hosted by the World Jewish Congress.

[President Joe Biden]

So tonight, in honor of in this great dinner, in honor of this champion of freedom, I am formally announcing my intention to cut off all trade and investment with Iran.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Fast forward 20 years. In 2015, President Obama announced the Iran nuclear deal aimed at making sure Iran did not develop a nuclear weapon.

[Aaron Stein]

With this deal, Iran will face more inspections than any other country in the world.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

The agreement required Iran to submit to checks from the International Atomic Energy Agency. President Trump famously called it one of the worst deals the US had ever entered. He abandoned it during his first term in office, but the overarching goal remained. Here's President Biden speaking in 2022 in Jerusalem with then Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid.

[President Joe Biden]

You and I also discussed Amer's commitment to ensuring Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon. This is a vital security interest to both Israel and the United States and I would add, for the rest of the world as well.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Consider this. The United States has worked for decades to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon. Now Israel says it is attacking Iran to remove that threat. What are the stakes in this conflict, not only for the two nations directly involved, but for the US and the world? From npr, I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

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[Mary Louise Kelly]

It'S consider this from NPR. The enmity between Israel and Iran is complex and longstanding. But the stated reason for Israel's preemptive attack on Iran boils, boils down to this, the decades long fight to keep Iran from building a nuclear weapon.

[President Joe Biden]

This operation will continue for as many.

[Aaron Stein]

Days as it takes to remove this threat.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

That's Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaking last Friday as Israel's attack got underway. To talk through the stakes and the history of nuclear proliferation in the Middle east, we have called Aaron Stein, president of the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Erin Stein, welcome.

[Aaron Stein]

It's my pleasure to be here. Thank you.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

I want to start with Israel, which is the only country in the region with nuclear weapons, although they have never admitted it. How did that come to be?

[Aaron Stein]

Well, it's a policy of opacity where the Israelis, largely in conjunction, I wouldn't say with the acquiescence, but the rather sort of forced hand of the United States said the United States came to the Israelis and said, look, we know that you're building nuclear weapons. We don't agree with it, but we don't want a cascade of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. So let's agree to disagree that you should have nuclear weapons. But if you do go ahead and pursue nuclear weapons, let's just keep it in the closet for as long as possible. And hence you have the policy of opacity that was born and that we're still living with today.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Although part of the point of nuclear deterrence is to show everyone you have nuclear capabilities. So don't attack us because we have nukes.

[Aaron Stein]

Oh, sure. You know, the Israelis don't really make a secret that they have it. They just don't really talk about it. It's like Fight Club, the movie, which is like everybody, the first rule of Fight Club, that you don't talk about Fight Club. The first rule of Israeli nuclear weapons is that you don't really talk about them in public, even though everybody knows that you have them.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

So to Iran then, which we are told is very close to having a nuclear weapon, has assembled the fissile material they would need to have a nuclear weapon. What's your understanding of how close they are?

[Aaron Stein]

Well, Iran had an active nuclear weapons program up until 2003. The US intelligence say that Iran halted that nuclear weapons program, which I like to think of as a pause. So if you're watching a DVD or you're streaming something, you pause it, and so the screen remains on your television as a clear image. And so they have all the requisite capabilities to build a nuclear weapon. They just decided not to. What the Israelis are talking about is that they've accumulated enough enriched uranium to where, if they wanted to enrich it to weapons grade, they could do so very quickly and then thereafter assemble it into a nuclear weapon.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

If Iran is taking any lesson from this moment, with Israel raining down missiles on their capital, on their nuclear facilities, would that lesson be that nuclear capabilities matter, that they will make your enemy think twice before attacking?

[Aaron Stein]

That is my personal opinion. Now, look, when you're sitting in Tehran, you're suggesting that, look, we didn't really trust the United States, but we reached the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the Iran nuclear deal, with the Obama administration, only for it to be ripped up by the Trump administration, even though we were abiding by it. And then we engaged again with the Trump administration with negotiations to return to something like the agreement that the United States left only to be attacked by the Israelis. The idea would be something along the lines of, well, maybe we need nuclear weapons to not be attacked by the Israelis.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

So that is an inherent risk here, that by attacking Iran, it will cause Iran to race for a nuclear bomb.

[Aaron Stein]

That will be my personal metric of success for the Israelis. Everything that we're watching is defying expectations. The Israelis have established air superiority over Western Iran and Tehran in ways that we didn't really think possible or at least would take longer. They've attrited Iran's missile forces, but if they don't get after certain nuclear facilities and Iran has the capability at the end of this thing to rapidly build a nuclear weapon, I will have judged this a failure on the Israeli side.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

What about the rest of the region? How closely are Saudi Arabia or Turkey or Egypt watching? They're watching Israel, which doesn't admit it, but has nuclear weapons. Iran, which doesn't admit that they are moving toward a nuclear weapon, but could do so if they wished.

[Aaron Stein]

Oh, I think everybody's watching. You know, one of the big concerns with when the Israelis, Pakistanis, the Indians, you know, back in the 1970s were openly flirting with nuclear weapons is that this could start off A cascade. The US and its allies at the time, ironically including the Soviet Union, were able to head that off. Now, you know, we're in the Wild west here, which is the capabilities to develop nuclear weapons have proliferated. The technology is, you know, 70 plus years old. It would be in the nursing home on Medicare. And so the capabilities have proliferated around the world. And so one of the dangers here is that the allure of nuclear weapons as sort of the symbol to deter conflict from external actors becomes all enticing for people in the Middle east, but also for other non nuclear countries around the world.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

I just want to let the gravity of what you're saying sink in. I mean, how do you think about that? The risk of a nuclear arms race potentially in a region that is already so volatile?

[Aaron Stein]

Well, that's why we invest or we elect leaders who ostensibly care about these things. Look, the United States and the international community has tools, the Non Proliferation Treaty, all other things to try and head this off. It's just that the capabilities, the technical expertise, again is close to being an octogenarian. And so that the barriers to build nuclear weapons are not what they once were.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

How close have other countries in the Middle east come to having a nuclear weapon, either through their own program and capabilities or through buying it from somewhere else?

[Aaron Stein]

The big wave of proliferation was the purchasing of nuclear weapons plans and infrastructure. And here I'm talking about centrifuge designs, equipments, the network with which to buy the components to build centrifuges out of Pakistan. And so you had Libya.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

This is A. Q. Khan, AQ Khan.

[Aaron Stein]

Yeah. So you had Libya, Iraq and Iran. Iran is the most advanced. Iraq was dealt with through international sanctions, through inspections, and then obviously done away with with the 2003 invasion by the United States and its allies, leaving Libya. And Libya, I wouldn't say was very close at all, but they traded away the capabilities that they had acquired from AQ Khan, large still in boxes for security guarantees from the UK and from the US obviously, Gaddafi met his match in 2011 at the hands of his own people.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Last thing, Ehrenstein, I was reading the statement out of Canada. This is G7 leaders, including President Trump. They just signed it and it reads, Israel has a right to defend itself. It also reads, Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. The message being, hey, look, many of us can have them, but you can't. How is that heard if you are sitting in Tehran or you're sitting in one of the Arab capitals?

[Aaron Stein]

Well, all of the countries in the Middle east with the exception of Israel actually are signatories to the non proliferation Treaty, which means that when they did that they had foresworn their ability to acquire nuclear weapons basically as part of the human good to sign up for this treaty. And so in a way they signed up for this. I think what they're saying now, or at least sort of the fissures around the end is that countries can cheat in the case of Iran and many Gulf countries have always said when Iran cheated, they got rewarded by the Obama administration because they have the implicit right to enrichment. And so countries are trying to figure out where they stand with trying to keep up their non proliferation agreements, but with their sort of flirtation, let's say with the right to enrich.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

So what are you watching for next as these nuclear stakes play out?

[Aaron Stein]

Saudi Arabia, they're a long ways away, but they have been in intermittent negotiations with the Biden administration and now with the Trump administration. And it's really centered around that they have the right to enrich uranium. That doesn't mean that they will. They mean they will quickly. But they have said if the Iranians can do it, we can do it. And so why are you treating us sort of as second class citizens in our own neighborhood? And so that's what I'm watching first and foremost, which is where they sort of proliferation dynamics that take place after this war ends. Second of all, will the Israelis be able to knock out all of Iran's enrichment capability? You know, we've talked a lot about the deeply buried bunker in Fordo. It's under a mountain. And if they don't get that, Iran will come out of this with the capability to continue to enrich uranium at high levels.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Say Israel does manage to take out the facility of Fordo, does that mean Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions will have been stopped?

[Aaron Stein]

Again, think about a nuclear weapon program as a DVD that you put on pause now. Yes, there are Trident nuclear scientists. Yes, you can take away some of the infrastructure that supports it, but the picture is all still there, right? So somebody can hit pause. So estimates, it still depends. But let's say two to three, three to five years because centrifuges are things that spin. They have the ability to build those centrifuges. And so if the Israelis miss centrifuge shots, they can build them someplace else. Iran's a very large country and there's lots of places to hide them.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

As the saying goes, you can take out the facilities. It's very difficult to eliminate the know.

[Aaron Stein]

How the Israelis are trying. I mean, they've certainly taken out a bunch of scientists. But the centrifuge program is 30 years old. It would be well out of college. It would be their second job if you were to compare it to an American entering the workforce.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Aaron Stein, he's president of the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Thank you.

[Aaron Stein]

My pleasure. Thank you for having me.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

This episode was produced by Megan Lim and Noah Caldwell, with audio engineering by Simon Lazlo Jansen. It was edited by Justine Kennan and William Troup. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigun. It's considered this from npr. I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

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