Consider This from NPR: What's at Stake in the Conflict Between Israel and Iran?

Release Date: June 17, 2025

In this episode of NPR’s “Consider This,” host Mary Louise Kelly delves into the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, examining the historical context, current developments, and the broader implications for regional and global security. Featuring insights from Aaron Stein, president of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, the discussion unpacks the complex dynamics surrounding nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.

Introduction: Escalation of Conflict

The episode opens with Mary Louise Kelly outlining the recent surge in missile exchanges between Israel and Iran. Highlighting President Joe Biden's firm stance, she quotes him:

“Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. We don’t have to go too deep into it. They just can’t have a nuclear weapon.” ([00:25] - [00:29])

Kelly emphasizes that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities has been a longstanding U.S. policy, mirroring Israel's security concerns.

Historical Context: U.S. Policy and the Iran Nuclear Deal

Kelly provides a brief history of U.S. involvement in curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, referencing key moments such as President Bill Clinton’s 1995 announcement to cut off all trade and investment with Iran ([00:45] – [01:13]). She moves forward to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal under President Obama, noting its objectives to increase inspections and limit Iran’s nuclear activities.

Aaron Stein adds context by explaining the deal’s significance:

“With this deal, Iran will face more inspections than any other country in the world.” ([01:24] – [01:29])

However, Stein points out President Trump’s dismantling of the agreement, setting the stage for the current tensions.

Israel's Preemptive Actions and Nuclear Policy

As tensions rise, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declares a preemptive strike to neutralize Iran’s nuclear threat:

“This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat.” ([03:59] – [04:02])

Aaron Stein discusses Israel’s unique position as the only country in the region with undeclared nuclear weapons. He explains Israel’s policy of opacity:

“It's like Fight Club, the movie, which is like everybody, the first rule of Fight Club, that you don't talk about Fight Club. The first rule of Israeli nuclear weapons is that you don't really talk about them in public, even though everybody knows that you have them.” ([05:15] – [05:33])

Stein elaborates on how this strategy is intended to deter adversaries without provoking a nuclear arms race.

Iran’s Nuclear Capabilities and Intentions

Kelly inquires about Iran’s current status regarding nuclear weapons. Stein provides a nuanced perspective:

“Iran had an active nuclear weapons program up until 2003. The US intelligence say that Iran halted that nuclear weapons program, which I like to think of as a pause.” ([05:45] – [06:21])

He asserts that while Iran possesses the necessary infrastructure and material, their program was paused, implying potential future developments if tensions persist.

Risk of a Middle Eastern Nuclear Arms Race

The conversation shifts to the broader regional implications. Stein warns of the dangers of nuclear proliferation in an already volatile region:

“The allure of nuclear weapons as sort of the symbol to deter conflict from external actors becomes all enticing for people in the Middle East, but also for other non-nuclear countries around the world.” ([08:00] – [08:48])

He highlights the historical attempts by other nations, such as Libya and Iraq, to develop nuclear capabilities, and the risks associated with the spread of nuclear technology.

International Responses and Non-Proliferation Efforts

Kelly brings up the recent G7 statement affirming Israel’s right to defend itself while reiterating that Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons:

“Israel has a right to defend itself. It also reads, Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.” ([10:23] – [10:48])

Stein critiques the message, noting the challenges for non-nuclear states in the Middle East who have committed to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) but are under pressure to develop their own capabilities:

“All of the countries in the Middle East with the exception of Israel actually are signatories to the Non Proliferation Treaty... they had foregone their ability to acquire nuclear weapons.” ([10:48] – [11:35])

He underscores the complexities of enforcing non-proliferation in a region rife with mistrust and strategic rivalries.

Future Outlook: Potential Developments and Challenges

As the episode nears its conclusion, Stein discusses possible future scenarios and the effectiveness of Israel’s military actions in disabling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure:

“If they don't get after certain nuclear facilities and Iran has the capability at the end of this thing to rapidly build a nuclear weapon, I will have judged this a failure on the Israeli side.” ([07:15] – [07:43])

He also touches on Saudi Arabia's aspirations and the potential for intensified negotiations or further conflicts, emphasizing the precarious balance of power in the region.

Finally, Stein reflects on the enduring challenges of nuclear deterrence and the importance of international cooperation to prevent a nuclear arms race:

“The barriers to build nuclear weapons are not what they once were.” ([08:48] – [09:22])

Conclusion

Mary Louise Kelly wraps up the discussion by reiterating the high stakes involved in the Israel-Iran conflict, not just for the nations directly engaged but for global security. The episode underscores the intricate interplay between military actions, nuclear policy, and international diplomacy in shaping the future of the Middle East.

Notable Quotes:

• President Joe Biden: “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. We don’t have to go too deep into it. They just can’t have a nuclear weapon.” ([00:25] – [00:29])
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: “This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat.” ([03:59] – [04:02])
• Aaron Stein: “It's like Fight Club... the first rule of Israeli nuclear weapons is that you don't really talk about them in public...” ([05:15] – [05:33])
• Aaron Stein: “The allure of nuclear weapons as sort of the symbol to deter conflict from external actors becomes all enticing for people in the Middle East...” ([08:00] – [08:48])

This comprehensive analysis by NPR’s “Consider This” provides listeners with a deep understanding of the Israel-Iran conflict, the historical efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation, and the potential ramifications for international stability.