Consider This from NPR

Episode Title: Who will be Iran's next leader?
Date: March 3, 2026
Host: Scott Detrow
Featured Guests:

• Mirzad Boroujerdi, scholar of Iran’s ruling class (Missouri University of Science and Technology)
• Ray Takeyh, Council on Foreign Relations
• Ismail Bagai, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman

Episode Overview

The episode examines the aftermath of the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a US-Israeli airstrike campaign. Despite the shock of his death, Iran’s complex regime remains in place, and the country is now entering a fraught succession process. The episode explores how succession normally works, what’s different given current turmoil, who could take power, the pivotal role of the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and why regime collapse remains unlikely—despite unrest and outside pressure.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Current Crisis: Public Reactions and Regime Resilience

• Public Responses: Many Iranians, like Shadi in Tehran, feel a mix of relief and exhilaration at Khamenei’s death, but fear of regime retribution persists.
  • Quote: “We screamed so hard from the windows...I was shouting from the bottom of my heart…” – Shadi [00:00]
• Systemic Power: Khamenei’s death doesn’t shatter Iran’s system; the regime is not built around a single person.
  • Quote: “This is not a personalized dictatorship. This is an ideological system with a multi layered cadre.” – Ray Takeyh [00:48]
• Regime Resilience: Even targeted “decapitation” strikes by the US and Israel may not topple the regime.
  • Quote: “The regime is resilient enough to be able to replace depleted cadres.” – Ray Takeyh [00:59]

2. Succession Mechanism in Iran

• Process: According to the constitution, the Supreme Leader is chosen by the 88-member Assembly of Experts, mainly elderly religious figures.
  • Quote (joke): “When you ask what is the average age of members of [the] religious experts? People say deceased.” – Mirzad Boroujerdi [03:58]
• Current Disarray: The Assembly’s headquarters in Qom was destroyed in the airstrikes, throwing the succession process into turmoil. How, or if, the assembly can meet is unclear.
  • “We are not quite clear as to how this assembly is going to meet...This is really the most serious crisis of succession.” – Mirzad Boroujerdi [03:58]

3. Key Power Players: Revolutionary Guard’s Role

• Guardians of the Regime: The IRGC is tasked with maintaining order, quelling unrest, and influencing succession.
• Economic & Political Interests: The IRGC, which profits from sanctions evasion, could use its power to shape or veto the choice of the next leader.
  • Quote: “Will they exercise veto power if whoever is chosen is not to their liking? ...IRGC is really the force to look at at this critical moment.” – Mirzad Boroujerdi [05:31]

4. Potential Candidates for Supreme Leader

• Mojtaba Khamenei: Son of the former Supreme Leader; an ultimate insider but lacks formal clerical and bureaucratic credentials. His selection could alienate both political and clerical elites.
• Alireza Arafi: Trusted by Khamenei, runs all the country’s religious seminaries, now on the interim council.
• Sadeq Larijani: Former judiciary chief, from a powerful religious family, and likely has the connections and pedigree for the role.
  • Quote: “He has the sort of the pedigree...and family connections, ties to the clerical establishment...” – Mirzad Boroujerdi [07:54]

5. Chances of Regime Collapse

• No Organized Opposition: Despite years of protests and unrest, there is no united opposition capable of challenging for power. No territory is under opposition control.
  • Quote: “There is really no organized opposition inside the country. No part of the Iranian territory is under the control of an opposition force.” – Mirzad Boroujerdi [08:45]
• External Dynamics: The possibility of a foreign-backed coup (as in Venezuela) is discussed, but the country’s scale and complexity make it highly unstable and risky.
• Role of the Exiled Crown Prince: Reza Pahlavi (former shah’s son) is seen as sympathetic but lacks organizational strength.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "This is not a personalized dictatorship. This is an ideological system..." – Ray Takeyh [00:48]
• “The joke in Iran is ... what is the average age of members of [the] religious experts? People say deceased.” – Mirzad Boroujerdi [03:58]
• “So yes, IRGC or the Revolutionary Guard is really the force to look at at this critical moment.” – Mirzad Boroujerdi [06:31]
• "For a regime to collapse, you need to have a serious, you know, opposition force...As we speak, there is really no organized opposition inside the country." – Mirzad Boroujerdi [08:45]
• "He has...the pedigree...and family connections, ties to the clerical establishment..." – Mirzad Boroujerdi (on Larijani) [07:54]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:00] – On-the-ground reaction from Tehran: "Shadi" and the public mood
• [00:48] – Analysis from Ray Takeyh: Regime structure and resilience
• [03:12] – Introduction to Iran's succession mechanism
• [03:58] – How the Assembly of Experts is chosen, challenges after attacks
• [05:31] – IRGC’s critical role during succession and instability
• [06:50] – Most probable successors outlined and discussed
• [08:45] – Why regime collapse is unlikely, absence of organized opposition
• [09:50] – Limitations of exiled figures and external intervention scenarios

Conclusion

This episode provides a concise but in-depth look at Iran's succession crisis following the assassination of its Supreme Leader. It explains why the regime may survive despite leadership decapitation, the convoluted process of leadership transition, the outsized influence of the IRGC, and the limited chances for a regime change due to the absence of organized opposition. For those interested in Iranian politics, geopolitics, or the mechanics of authoritarian resilience, this is a must-listen episode.