Who's sending Trump back to the White House and why?

Summary

Consider This from NPR: "Who's Sending Trump Back to the White House and Why?"

In this insightful episode of NPR's "Consider This," host Mary Louise Kelly delves into the unexpected and decisive victory of former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election. Through a comprehensive analysis with veteran political strategists Democrat Anna Greenberg and Republican Sarah Longwell, the episode uncovers the multifaceted reasons behind Trump's resurgence and the broader implications for American politics.

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**1. Election Night Dynamics

Mary Louise Kelly opens the discussion by recounting the tense moments of election night 2020, where Trump's early declarations of victory, such as:

Mary Louise Kelly [00:01]: "The last time Donald Trump declared victory in a presidential election, it was a lie."

Contrasted with the 2024 election, where Trump's confidence appeared more justified as the results began to solidify in his favor. By Wednesday morning, the Associated Press called Wisconsin for Trump, granting him the necessary electoral votes to become the 47th President of the United States, marking his return to the White House.

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**2. Voter Turnout and Demographic Shifts

a. Gender Gap

The episode explores the anticipated versus actual gender turnout. Contrary to expectations that high female turnout would favor Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, the results showed:

Anna Greenberg [06:11]: "53% of the electorate was female, which is fairly standard. And there was a gender gap, but it wasn't as big as many were predicting."

Sarah Longwell attributes this outcome to overarching economic concerns overshadowing specific issues like reproductive rights:

Sarah Longwell [07:43]: "It was the economy. The economy."

b. Latino Voters

A significant revelation was Trump's unprecedented support among Latino voters, particularly Latino men. Ira Glass references an NBC News exit poll highlighting Trump's 25% support from this demographic.

Sarah Longwell [07:59]: "They tend to be very hawkish on immigration. They too cite the economy as the number one issue hit hard by inflation."

Anna Greenberg provides context, noting the assimilation of younger, English-speaking Hispanic voters who align more closely with traditional Republican values:

Anna Greenberg [08:51]: "As the population grows in that segment in particular, you would expect... to assimilate and be like everybody else."

c. Other Demographic Insights

The discussion touches on the Republican Party's ability to appeal across diverse racial and cultural lines, contrasting with the Democratic Party's challenges in maintaining its traditional diverse coalition.

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**3. Key Issues Influencing Voters

a. Economy and Inflation

Economic concerns were paramount among voters. Mary Louise Kelly introduces a poignant voter testimony from Michigan:

Donald Trump [10:07]: "Eggs were $6.99 for a dozen eggs. I've never seen eggs that expensive in my life."

Sarah Longwell emphasizes that everyday economic pressures, such as inflation and rising prices, were critical in swaying voters:

Sarah Longwell [10:17]: "People just... know exactly how much milk costs. They're very sensitive to the price of gas."

Despite indicators of economic stabilization, Anna Greenberg notes that voters' perceptions of economic mismanagement under the Biden administration fueled a desire for change:

Anna Greenberg [11:09]: "The inflationary pressures and the sense that it came from the Biden administration was part of, you know, a vote for change."

b. Immigration

Trump's stringent immigration promises, including massive tariffs and border sealing, resonated with voters concerned about economic and cultural impacts. However, Mary Louise Kelly highlights potential fallout:

Mary Louise Kelly [01:23]: "Immigration advocates warn his plan could create chaos for legal US Citizens and could cause labor shortages."

c. Information Silos and Media Consumption

The episode underscores how voters' selective exposure to media influences their perceptions of economic conditions and political narratives:

Anna Greenberg [12:03]: "If you are living in siloed information environments... you're going to have a certain sense of how things are going."

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**4. Implications for the Democratic Party

The Democrats face a critical juncture following substantial losses in both the White House and the Senate. Anna Greenberg reflects on the necessity for introspection and strategic overhaul:

Anna Greenberg [14:03]: "I think that there will definitely be soul searching and there will be, you know, an autopsy..."

She emphasizes the challenge of maintaining a diverse coalition while needing to address the specific concerns of different voter segments without alienating any particular group.

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**5. Republican Party's Outlook

Looking forward, Sarah Longwell envisions the Republican Party embracing a more multiracial, working-class identity under Trump's leadership:

Sarah Longwell [15:11]: "They're Republicans have been making an active effort to become a multiracial working class party and that that is where the party is going."

This strategic shift aims to broaden the party's appeal and solidify its base across various demographic groups.

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**6. Conclusion and Takeaways

The episode concludes by highlighting the broad dissatisfaction with the current administration's handling of the economy and immigration, leading to Trump's decisive victory. The analysis provided by Greenberg and Longwell offers a nuanced understanding of voter behavior and the shifting political landscape, underscoring the complexities facing both major parties in the aftermath of the 2024 election.

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Notable Quotes:

• Donald Trump [00:06]: "We were getting ready to win this election. Frankly, we did win this election."

• Donald Trump [01:05]: "I will govern by a simple motto. Promises made, promises kept. We're going to keep our promises."

• Sarah Longwell [07:43]: "It was the economy. The economy."

• Anna Greenberg [08:51]: "Understanding the differences in the population and communities from state to state, from region to region, generationally, language, even country of origin."

• Sarah Longwell [10:17]: "People just... know exactly how much milk costs. They're very sensitive to the price of gas."

• Ira Glass [12:03]: "People are living in siloed information environments... you're going to have a certain sense of how things are going."

This episode of "Consider This" offers a thorough exploration of the factors that propelled Donald Trump back to the presidency, providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the current political climate and the underlying forces shaping future elections.

Transcript

[Mary Louise Kelly]

The last time Donald Trump declared victory in a presidential election, it was a lie.

[Donald Trump]

We were getting ready to win this election. Frankly, we did win this election.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

He was speaking at the White House deep into election night 2020, with many decisive states still too close to call. Of course, Joe Biden would go on to win. Trump would spend weeks trying to overturn that win. And a crowd of his supporters would try to stop Congress from certifying that win with an insurrection at the this time around, when Trump addressed his supporters in West Palm Beach, Florida, the election was very clearly going his way.

[Donald Trump]

This is a magnificent victory for the American people that will allow us to make America great again.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

And now President Elect Trump can reasonably claim he has a mandate, one he plans to get busy enacting.

[Donald Trump]

I will govern by a simple motto. Promises made, promises kept. We're going to keep our promises.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Those promises include massive tariffs on imports.

[Donald Trump]

We're going to lose $1 trillion in deficits to China. A trillion. That's not sustainable. We're going to turn it all around, and we're going to do it through taxation and tariffs. It will be done in 24 hours, and it'll change the whole planet.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Trump claims other countries will bear the costs of this tariff. Economists say they will raise costs for US Consumers and increase infl. Trump has also promised that on day one, he will, quote, seal the border with Mexico and I will begin the.

[Donald Trump]

Largest deportation operation in the history of our country.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Immigration advocates warn his plan could create chaos for legal US Citizens and could cause labor shortages. And he's promised to overthrow decades old norms and direct the Justice Department to prosecute his political enemies.

[Donald Trump]

I will appoint a real special prosecutor to go after the most corrupt president of the history of the United States of America, Joe Biden and the entire Biden crime family.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

This is from a speech last summer.

[Donald Trump]

I will totally obliterate the deep state. We will obliterate the deep state. And we know who they are. I know exactly who they are.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Consider this. We will spend a lot of time in the days ahead digging into what Trump intends to do when he returns to the presidency. Today. Today we're gonna break down how America sent him back to office, how Trump won in 2024. From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

[Ira Glass]

This is Ira Glass of this American Life. Each week on our show, we choose a theme, tell different stories on that theme. All right, I'm just gonna stop right there. You're listening to an NPR podcast. Chances are, you know our show. So instead, I'm gonna tell you we've just been on a run of really good shows lately. Some big epic emotional stories and some weird, funny stuff too. Download Us this American Life this message comes from NPR sponsor Saatva Founder and CEO Ron Rudsen shares why Saatva sales associates are focused on finding the perfect mattress for their customers at Saatva to.

[Donald Trump]

Have a 365 day home trial. Why would we want to rush you or try to push you into something.

[Ira Glass]

That'S not right for you? We want to make sure that we.

[Donald Trump]

Guide you to the right mattress is.

[Ira Glass]

Always available to be helpful to make.

[Donald Trump]

Sure you make the right choice.

[Ira Glass]

To learn more, go to Joe Biden's on his way out. Donald Trump's on his way back. Want to know what's happening as the presidential transition is underway? The NPR Politics Podcast has you covered with the latest news and analysis. Listen to the NPR Politics Podcast.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

It's Consider this from npr. In the days leading up to election night, news outlets across the country, including ours, were predicting a historically close race, one that could take days to call. But as the night progressed, it became clear former President Donald Trump was on a path to victory. So much so that before anything was official, he thanked his supporters from his campaign headquarters in West Palm Beach.

[Donald Trump]

They came from all Union, nonunion, African American, Hispanic American, Asian American, Arab American, Muslim American. We had everybody.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Then Wednesday morning at around 5:30, the Associated Press called Wisconsin for Trump, giving him more than the 270 electoral votes he needed to become the 47th President of the United States. And though we are still awaiting final tallies, it appears Trump is on track to win the popular vote for the first time. Wednesday afternoon, his opponent, Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, called now President Elect Trump and formally conceded the race. Later, Harris addressed a crowd of supporters at Howard University. While I concede this election, I do not concede the fight that fueled this campaign. Now, with a race that was expected to be historically tight behind us, the question is, how did Trump win so decisively? That is something my co host Juana Summers and I unpacked with two veteran political strategists, Democrat Anna Greenberg and Republican Sarah Longwell. She is also publisher of the Bulwark, a conservative news and opinion site. Welcome to you both. And I want to walk through who turned out for Trump and what issues drove them. Let's start with women, Anna. Early indications showed women were going to turn out in high numbers. The thinking was that would help Harris. It didn't. What happened?

[Anna Greenberg]

Well, first of all, I think that like many people myself Included, we got a little bit ahead of our skis in the early vote where you saw actually a pretty significant gap in turnout between men and women, suggesting that there would be an even bigger gender gap than there normally is in turnout. And it turned out that it was not the case. 53% of the electorate was female, which is fairly standard. And there was a gender gap, but it wasn't as big as many were predicting. And so Harris won 53% of women, while Trump won 55% of men. And clearly that wasn't enough.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Yeah. So, Sarah, jump in on this and your take on the so called gender gap, which didn't really materialize. Does that tell us female voters were not as fired up over reproductive rights, over the issue of abortion as everybody thought they were?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I also think that it was just, look, it was the economy. The economy. Look, I do focus groups all the time and I always start them by asking people, how do you think things are going in the country? And for years now, people have been saying they do not think things are going good. Inflation has been killing them. You know, they're frustrated with immigration. And so the Dobbs effect was just minimized. And I think that what women, you know, they did obviously break for Harris somewhat, but it wasn't nearly the. At the scale she needed to make up for the fact that, you know, Democrats were doing poorly with men of all races and the bottom was falling out with Hispanics. They really needed white women to make up for those numbers, and they didn't.

[Ira Glass]

If I can just jump in here, I want to talk about Latino voters because an NBC News exit poll found that Trump won Latino voters by 25%. Particularly interesting was Latino men. So, Sarah, do we have a sense of what it is about Trump's message that is driving such seemingly decisive support with this group in particular?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, when I do focus groups with Hispanic voters, you know, they sound just like sort of white voters who vote for Trump. And there's been very little difference. And they tend to be very hawkish on immigration. They too cite the economy as the number one issue hit hard by inflation. And then there's also certain cultural elements. A lot of it is just they sort of do not like the sort of Democratic Party's more identitarian politics. They tend to reject that. And they have been culturally breaking more and more for Republicans now for a while. And then the bottom really fell out this election cycle.

[Ira Glass]

Anna, let me bring you in here. I mean, this is a group that has traditionally supported Democrats. I will just note that Vice President Harris trailed President Biden's 2020 numbers with this group. Explain to us what you're seeing here. Why is the party losing support?

[Anna Greenberg]

Well, I think that there has been a change in the Hispanic electorate that has been underway for some time because as the population grows and Hispanic voters were born in the US Our native English speakers consume more English, almost exclusively English language media. They start politically seeming like just everybody else. Right. And as the population grows in that segment in particular, you would expect, just like historically, Irish immigrants, Italian immigrants, Polish, to assimilate and be like everybody else. So in some ways, from a demography standpoint, it's not that much of a surprise. And Hillary Clinton also underperformed among Hispanic voters. And I think that Democrats need to think about this in a way as the new normal and start thinking different, differently about how you reach out to Hispanic voters. In particular, understanding the differences in the population and communities from state to state, from region to region, generationally, language, even country of origin.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

We've already touched on one of the other big issues of the campaign. So let me just park us for a moment on the economy. I want you all both to listen to what we heard from a voter in Michigan earlier this week. This is Michael Gee. He was talking about how he sees the difference between, between the economy now and the economy under President Trump.

[Donald Trump]

I think people were more confident, things were running smoother, could provide for our family.

[Ira Glass]

I was in 711 yesterday.

[Donald Trump]

Eggs were $6.99 for a dozen eggs. I've never seen eggs that expensive in my life.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Sarah Longwell, did Trump's victory really boil down to something like the price of eggs?

[Sarah Longwell]

I actually think, yes, that that is one of the biggest factors. And we heard it all the time in the groups. And in fact, I do think it's sometimes tough for people in big cities how price sensitive these voters are when I do focus groups with voters. And this is one of the reasons I think Democrats underperformed with young people. People just, they know exactly how much milk costs. They know exactly how much eggs cost. They're very sensitive to the price of gas. And this is, look, in the inflationary environment that we had post Covid, it has, it has failed incumbents across the globe. People have, you know, incumbents are losing at a rapid rate in this post Covid environment because inflation is something that really does end presidential elections, although we.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Know, Anna, that inflation has returned mostly to something resembling normal levels.

[Anna Greenberg]

So why didn't that resonate with folks? And incomes have risen and the stock market's doing Great. All those things. I think a couple first. I agree with Sarah, but I think it also more broadly suggested this was a failed administration. And if you look at Joe Biden's job approval numbers and his favorability, obviously incredibly low, stayed incredibly low. Even after we saw the switch in the ticket, his numbers did not get any better. And in many ways, this was a change election. And so I think the inflationary pressures and the sense of that it came from the Biden administration was part of, you know, a vote for change.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

One more thing we heard in our exit polls, our reporting from swing states, is that people, including Republicans, who didn't necessarily like Trump. I interviewed one Republican in Georgia a few weeks back who said, look, I wouldn't want to marry the guy, but he's a strong leader. He's going to make my life better. Reconcile those two things for me.

[Anna Greenberg]

Well, I think we have to keep in mind that people are living in siloed information environments. And so I think the perception that the economy was better under Trump, which is actually in many ways not true, and that the Biden administration didn't do anything for people, also not true. But if you are living in siloed information environments, whether it's the media you consume, the people you talk to, the places you work, you're going to have a certain sense of how things are going, not just where you are, but all over the country. And that was very, very negative for most of the Trump voters.

[Ira Glass]

Sarah, let me ask you this. I've got just a big picture question for you. We saw Trump win big last night. He made gains in nearly every demographic. He's won all five of the seven swing states that have been called so far. You look at a map, it looks quite red. It could, one could surmise that the whole country is swinging. Right. Is that the case?

[Sarah Longwell]

It is. And it's not just the swing states like places like Illinois, other places, you know, New Jersey, they all saw swings to the right. But I don't know that that necessarily means that the country's getting more conservative per se. I do think it has much more to do with the fact that people were really frustrated with the economy. It was a widespread situation. You know, the fact that there was that much movement in states where they weren't having advertising, they weren't having get out the vote operations, you know, like the swing states were, indicates that there a massive macro frustration with the Biden administration and the economy and immigration that led the country to sort of roundly reject Kamala Harris as somebody who was seen as the incumbent.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Anna Greenberg, the Democrats have lost the White House. They have lost the Senate. We don't know yet where the House will land, but it's not looking great. Are Democrats ready now to change their message, to do the work, to change who feels that they belong in the Democratic Party?

[Anna Greenberg]

Well, I think that's an enormous question that is difficult to answer, especially the day after the election. I think that there will definitely be soul searching and there will be, you know, an autopsy, just like there was for the Republicans in 2012. But I think when you are a party that represents a diverse coalition racially and regionally, in terms of education level, the notion that you can sort of turn on a dime and say, well, I'm just going to talk about things that men care about and hopefully I'll win an election isn't really how it works. And I'm not suggesting that Democrats have a wonderful message to men. I'm not even suggesting that all men are actually a good target for the Democratic Party. But the idea that it is such a diverse I mean, the Republican advantage in terms of message is its homogeneity and the Democrats advantage around its diversity is that it makes it is both that it is broadly representative, but also much more challenging for this what I think is a minority, homogenous set of voters, even though Trump obviously won the popular vote.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Sarah Longwell, a very quick last word from you. Are Republicans ready to do the work to welcome all Americans because Donald Trump's going to be president for everybody?

[Sarah Longwell]

Look, I do think they're Republicans have been making an active effort to become a multiracial working class party and that that is where the party is going. It is not going back to the party of Mitt Romney or George W. Bush.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Okay. That is Republican strategist Sarah Longwell and Democratic pollster and strategist Anna Greenberg. Thanks very much to you both.

[Anna Greenberg]

Thank you.

[Sarah Longwell]

Thank you.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

This episode was produced by Connor Donovan and Michael Levitt. It was edited by Courtney Dorning. Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun. It's consider this from npr. I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

[Ira Glass]

Okay, so does this sound like you you love NPR's podcasts. You wish you could get more of all your favorite shows and you want to support NPR's mission to create a more informed public. If all that sounds appealing, then it is time to sign up for the NPR plus bundle. Learn more at plus.NPR.org the code switch team spent Election Day talking to folks about how the outcome might impact them. It's a time capsule of people's hopes and fears before they knew the results. One way or another, there's a change coming.

[Sarah Longwell]

I wanted to vote for Trump, but I voted for her.

[Donald Trump]

Gay it's for Trump.

[Ira Glass]

I cried this morning.

[Sarah Longwell]

I've been crying on and off. I'm terrified.

[Ira Glass]

Listen to Code Switch, the podcast about race and identity from npr. Want to hear this podcast without sponsor breaks? Amazon prime members can listen to Consider this sponsor free through Amazon Music. Or you can also support NPR's vital journalism and get consider this [e-mail] that's plus.NPR.org.