Consider This from NPR: "Who's Sending Trump Back to the White House and Why?"

In this insightful episode of NPR's "Consider This," host Mary Louise Kelly delves into the unexpected and decisive victory of former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election. Through a comprehensive analysis with veteran political strategists Democrat Anna Greenberg and Republican Sarah Longwell, the episode uncovers the multifaceted reasons behind Trump's resurgence and the broader implications for American politics.

**1. Election Night Dynamics

Mary Louise Kelly opens the discussion by recounting the tense moments of election night 2020, where Trump's early declarations of victory, such as:

Mary Louise Kelly [00:01]: "The last time Donald Trump declared victory in a presidential election, it was a lie."

Contrasted with the 2024 election, where Trump's confidence appeared more justified as the results began to solidify in his favor. By Wednesday morning, the Associated Press called Wisconsin for Trump, granting him the necessary electoral votes to become the 47th President of the United States, marking his return to the White House.

**2. Voter Turnout and Demographic Shifts

a. Gender Gap

The episode explores the anticipated versus actual gender turnout. Contrary to expectations that high female turnout would favor Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, the results showed:

Anna Greenberg [06:11]: "53% of the electorate was female, which is fairly standard. And there was a gender gap, but it wasn't as big as many were predicting."

Sarah Longwell attributes this outcome to overarching economic concerns overshadowing specific issues like reproductive rights:

Sarah Longwell [07:43]: "It was the economy. The economy."

b. Latino Voters

A significant revelation was Trump's unprecedented support among Latino voters, particularly Latino men. Ira Glass references an NBC News exit poll highlighting Trump's 25% support from this demographic.

Sarah Longwell [07:59]: "They tend to be very hawkish on immigration. They too cite the economy as the number one issue hit hard by inflation."

Anna Greenberg provides context, noting the assimilation of younger, English-speaking Hispanic voters who align more closely with traditional Republican values:

Anna Greenberg [08:51]: "As the population grows in that segment in particular, you would expect... to assimilate and be like everybody else."

c. Other Demographic Insights

The discussion touches on the Republican Party's ability to appeal across diverse racial and cultural lines, contrasting with the Democratic Party's challenges in maintaining its traditional diverse coalition.

**3. Key Issues Influencing Voters

a. Economy and Inflation

Economic concerns were paramount among voters. Mary Louise Kelly introduces a poignant voter testimony from Michigan:

Donald Trump [10:07]: "Eggs were $6.99 for a dozen eggs. I've never seen eggs that expensive in my life."

Sarah Longwell emphasizes that everyday economic pressures, such as inflation and rising prices, were critical in swaying voters:

Sarah Longwell [10:17]: "People just... know exactly how much milk costs. They're very sensitive to the price of gas."

Despite indicators of economic stabilization, Anna Greenberg notes that voters' perceptions of economic mismanagement under the Biden administration fueled a desire for change:

Anna Greenberg [11:09]: "The inflationary pressures and the sense that it came from the Biden administration was part of, you know, a vote for change."

b. Immigration

Trump's stringent immigration promises, including massive tariffs and border sealing, resonated with voters concerned about economic and cultural impacts. However, Mary Louise Kelly highlights potential fallout:

Mary Louise Kelly [01:23]: "Immigration advocates warn his plan could create chaos for legal US Citizens and could cause labor shortages."

c. Information Silos and Media Consumption

The episode underscores how voters' selective exposure to media influences their perceptions of economic conditions and political narratives:

Anna Greenberg [12:03]: "If you are living in siloed information environments... you're going to have a certain sense of how things are going."

**4. Implications for the Democratic Party

The Democrats face a critical juncture following substantial losses in both the White House and the Senate. Anna Greenberg reflects on the necessity for introspection and strategic overhaul:

Anna Greenberg [14:03]: "I think that there will definitely be soul searching and there will be, you know, an autopsy..."

She emphasizes the challenge of maintaining a diverse coalition while needing to address the specific concerns of different voter segments without alienating any particular group.

**5. Republican Party's Outlook

Looking forward, Sarah Longwell envisions the Republican Party embracing a more multiracial, working-class identity under Trump's leadership:

Sarah Longwell [15:11]: "They're Republicans have been making an active effort to become a multiracial working class party and that that is where the party is going."

This strategic shift aims to broaden the party's appeal and solidify its base across various demographic groups.

**6. Conclusion and Takeaways

The episode concludes by highlighting the broad dissatisfaction with the current administration's handling of the economy and immigration, leading to Trump's decisive victory. The analysis provided by Greenberg and Longwell offers a nuanced understanding of voter behavior and the shifting political landscape, underscoring the complexities facing both major parties in the aftermath of the 2024 election.

Notable Quotes:

• Donald Trump [00:06]: "We were getting ready to win this election. Frankly, we did win this election."

• Donald Trump [01:05]: "I will govern by a simple motto. Promises made, promises kept. We're going to keep our promises."

• Sarah Longwell [07:43]: "It was the economy. The economy."

• Anna Greenberg [08:51]: "Understanding the differences in the population and communities from state to state, from region to region, generationally, language, even country of origin."

• Sarah Longwell [10:17]: "People just... know exactly how much milk costs. They're very sensitive to the price of gas."

• Ira Glass [12:03]: "People are living in siloed information environments... you're going to have a certain sense of how things are going."

This episode of "Consider This" offers a thorough exploration of the factors that propelled Donald Trump back to the presidency, providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the current political climate and the underlying forces shaping future elections.