Why ending the war in Iran is getting harder

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Why Ending the War in Iran is Getting Harder"

Podcast: Consider This from NPR
Host: Ailsa Chang
Guest: Thomas Wright (Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution; former National Security Council Director under Biden)
Date: March 19, 2026
Duration: approx. 10 minutes of content

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Episode Overview

This episode explores the escalating complexity of ending the U.S.-led war in Iran, highlighting diverging perspectives between the Trump administration and national security experts. The Trump team projects confidence that the war's end is imminent and within presidential control, but mounting regional attacks, economic consequences, and political challenges are complicating any potential "off ramp." Guest Thomas Wright discusses why a clean resolution is increasingly unlikely.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. White House Messaging vs. On-the-Ground Reality

• President Trump frequently claims the war is nearly or entirely successful:

  • "We could call it a tremendous success right now as we leave here. I could call it. Or we could go further. And we're going to go further." (Donald Trump, 00:06)
  • He insists the war could be ended at his discretion, projecting certainty and control.

• Despite official optimism, the situation continues escalating:

  • Recent escalations:
    • Israeli strike on a crucial Iranian natural gas field.
    • Iran's retaliation with a strike on the largest LNG complex in Qatar.
  • Pentagon seeking substantial new funding ("as far as $200 billion" - Pete Hegseth, 03:08).
  • Pentagon maintains the narrative that the mission is not "widening," and the president will decide when the war is over (Pete Hegseth, 03:29).

2. Shrinking Pathways to End the War

• "Any off ramp in Iran is disappearing." (Ailsa Chang summarizing Thomas Wright, 03:38)
• Wright explains the initial "Venezuela model" (negotiating with Iran’s #2 or #3 leadership and economic deals) is gone after multiple Iranian leaders were killed and the Supreme Leader was replaced:
  • "That possibility disappeared... And then his off ramp was really declaring victory and getting out. I think that's become much more difficult over the last week because the costs of the war are rising." (Thomas Wright, 04:10)
  • Major economic pressure: Strait of Hormuz closed, oil prices soaring, continued regional attacks.

3. Is Iran Seeking to Prolong the War?

• Wright believes Iran wants guarantees against future attacks before agreeing to peace:
  • "I think they want to impose costs on the US and Israel to deter a future strike... I don't think they would necessarily accept an unconditional cessation." (Thomas Wright, 05:10)

4. Possible Endgames ("Off Ramps") for the U.S.

• Military Gamble:

  • Take major Iranian strategic assets (e.g., Carg Island, nuclear facilities in Isfahan).
  • Highly risky and could result in significant U.S. casualties.
  • "He could try to take Carg island... or order a military raid on some of the nuclear facilities... But those are extremely high risk operations." (Thomas Wright, 05:48)

• Prolonged Military Campaign:

  • Trump intended a short conflict, not months of fighting.
  • Not enough preparation on the home front, depleted munitions, risk of higher casualties, oil price surges.
  • "He's not prepared for a longer war. He's not prepared the American public or Congress for it... I think it will become a very different animal." (Thomas Wright, 06:36)

• Negotiated Settlement:

  • Likely to be messy and more favorable to Iran than pre-war options.
  • Trump's reluctance to compromise could stall any deal.
  • "Iran will hold out for a deal that is more favorable to it... But I think that would be very tough for President Trump to accept." (Thomas Wright, 08:15)

5. Why "Mission Accomplished" is a Moving Target

• U.S. officials claim overwhelming military superiority, but effects are unclear:
  • U.S. focuses on targets hit rather than strategic shifts.
  • "They're measuring that purely based on inputs... but not necessarily on the effects... The war has already been won when it obviously, you know, has not." (Thomas Wright, 07:30)
• Iran continues effective asymmetric attacks; key goals unachieved.

6. The Iraq and Afghanistan Comparison

• Trump administration insists this war is different—no nation-building vision, more permissive rules of engagement.
• Wright challenges this narrative:
  • "No one intends wars initially to be very long, and certainly George W. Bush intended the war in Iraq to be short... They're trying to establish any type of government that does not view them as an enemy and is sort of stable domestically and averts sort of a descent into chaos. So they, too, have this problem." (Thomas Wright, 09:05)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• President Trump:

  • "We could call it a tremendous success right now as we leave here. I could call it. Or we could go further. And we're going to go further." (00:06)
  • "We're way ahead of schedule. Nobody would have thought." (00:52)

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth:

  • "...It takes money to kill bad guys." (03:08)
  • "It will be at the President's choosing, ultimately, where we say, hey, we've achieved what we need to on behalf of the American people to ensure our security." (03:29)

• Thomas Wright:

  • "Any off ramp in Iran is disappearing." (03:38, summarized)
  • "If he were to stop military operations now, I think it would look more like a stalemate than the victory he wants." (04:10)
  • "I don't think [Iran] would necessarily accept an unconditional cessation." (05:10)
  • "He's not prepared for a longer war... munitions and air defenses are being depleted." (06:36)
  • "They're measuring based on inputs... the war has already been won when it obviously... has not." (07:30)
  • "No one intends wars initially to be very long... What governments find in these situations is they're trying to establish a government that does not view them as an enemy and is sort of stable domestically and averts sort of a descent into chaos." (09:05)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:00 – 01:17: Trump’s repeated claims of imminent victory, overview of ongoing Iranian attacks and regional fallout.
• 02:41 – 03:29: Updates on new escalations, Pentagon's massive budget request, and insistence that the war’s end is Trump’s decision.
• 03:38 – 05:34: Thomas Wright interview begins—off ramps closing, Iran’s likely motives for prolongation.
• 05:34 – 08:44: Wright outlines possible (and problematic) endgame options: military gambles, long war, or messy negotiation.
• 08:44 – 09:57: The historical parallel: how the war could become another drawn-out conflict like Iraq or Afghanistan.

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Conclusion

This episode delivers a brisk but deep dive into the dilemma facing the U.S. as it seeks to end the war in Iran. While the Trump administration presents optimistic messaging and claims control, expert analysis suggests that both the military and political challenges ahead are multiplying. Traditional exit strategies have evaporated, and the risk of an open-ended entanglement looms—despite promises to the contrary. As Thomas Wright summarizes, even “quick wars” are at risk of spiraling into forever wars with uncertain costs and outcomes.

Transcript

[Ailsa Chang]

It's been 10 days now since President Trump said that the war in Iran was, quote, very complete. Pretty much.

[President Donald Trump]

We could call it a tremendous success right now as we leave here. I could call it. Or we could go further. And we're going to go further.

[Ailsa Chang]

I could call it. That is an idea that the Trump administration has repeatedly asserted over nearly three weeks of war in Iran. Even as Iran launched attacks throughout the region on US Military bases, on on energy infrastructure and on cities like Riyadh and Dubai. Even as Iran brought shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to a screeching halt and sent oil prices soaring. Over the past week, President Trump has said that the war would be wrapped

[President Donald Trump]

up soon and we're gonna have a much safer world when it's wrapped up.

[Ailsa Chang]

That this little excursion, as President Trump calls it, would not go on much longer.

[President Donald Trump]

We're way ahead of schedule. Nobody would have thought and.

[Ailsa Chang]

And that the war would end when he feels it in his bones. Consider this. President Trump keeps saying that the war will be over soon. That may no longer be strictly under his control. From npr, I'm Ailsa Chang.

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[Ailsa Chang]

It's consider this from npr. At the moment, the U S. Israel war with Iran looks more like its escalating than slowing down. On Wednesday, Israel attacked a crucial Iranian natural Gas field. Iran responded Thursday with a strike on the world's biggest liquefied natural gas complex in Qatar. And at a press briefing Thursday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed reporting that the Pentagon would seek additional funding for the war.

[Pete Hegseth]

As far as $200 billion, I think that number could move. Obviously, it. It takes. It takes money to kill bad guys.

[Ailsa Chang]

But he said that any assertion that the mission was widening was, quote, noise. And Hexeth reiterated the administration's position that President Trump himself would decide when the war is finished.

[Pete Hegseth]

It will be at the President's choosing, ultimately, where we say, hey, we've achieved what we need to on behalf of the American people to ensure our security.

[Ailsa Chang]

But not everyone thinks that ending the war will be so simple. I talked to Thomas Wright about that. He served as Senior Director for Strategic Planning at the National Security Council under President Biden. He writes in the Atlantic that any off ramp in Iran is disappearing. So the Trump administration has basically said that the end of the war is in President Trump's hands, that Trump can declare mission accomplished essentially whenever he wants, and then at that point, this war will be over. Do you think that will be the case?

[Thomas Wright]

Yeah, I think his initial goal was a Venezuela style model where after the Supreme Leader was killed, he would do a deal with the number two, number three, number four, he'd be willing to work pragmatically with him and maybe cut the US in on oil revenue or have some economic arrangement. But that possibility disappeared as more and more of the leadership were killed and as Mushaba Khamenei became the new Supreme Leader. And then his off ramp was really declaring victory and getting out. And I think that's become much more difficult over the last week because the costs of the war are rising. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Iran strikes on the Gulf states continues, including on energy infrastructure. And so if he were to stop military operations now, I think it would look more like a stalemate than the victory he wants.

[Ailsa Chang]

Is it your sense that Iran actually wants this war to continue?

[Thomas Wright]

I think Iran only wants the war to end when it has some guarantee that he won't be back in six or eight or 10 months to strike again if it rebuilds. I think they want to impose costs on the US And Israel to deter a future strike. And so I don't think they would necessarily accept an unconditional cessation.

[Ailsa Chang]

Okay, well, let's talk about these possible off ramps here. You outline some potential paths forward for this administration. One is taking a bit of a military gamble. Can you describe what that might look like.

[Thomas Wright]

Yeah, I think, you know, President Trump could take greater risks to try to achieve a major tactical victory that would allow him to say that he has achieved his objectives and to end the war. So he could try to take Carg island, where a lot of Iran's oil is.

[Ailsa Chang]

This is the principal oil export hub for Iran.

[Thomas Wright]

Exactly. And he could order a military raid on some of the nuclear facilities in Isfahan or Nantes to take the highly enriched uranium. But those are extremely high risk operations. The US could easily take or possibly take casualties.

[Ailsa Chang]

You do say that another possibility is simply to wage a longer war, but you don't see that as plausible. Why not?

[Thomas Wright]

Well, I think he may end up there anyway, but he is not prepared for a longer war. He's not prepared the American public or Congress for it. And munitions and air defenses are being depleted. And so, you know, he intended this to be three to four weeks long. I think he said maybe a little bit longer. You know, at the beginning, if this goes on for three, four, five months, with oil prices skyrocketing, potentially, you know, casualties on the allied side higher than they are now, with no clear end in sight, I think it will become a very different animal.

[Ailsa Chang]

This administration continues to highlight that it has achieved overwhelming military success. Is it unreasonable to think that continually degrading Iran's military would eventually weaken the regime to the point where it is simply forced to give up?

[Thomas Wright]

They're measuring that purely based on inputs on the number of targets they're hitting, but not necessarily on the effects. So, you know, Iran's strikes on the region continue. Its strikes on energy facilities continue. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. President Trump sort of downplays that and says, says, you know, we've destroyed their navy. It's just some guys with a mine, you know, on the coast, dropping one in now and again. I think that fairly dramatically understates it. But I think they are, you know, spinning a story that the war has already been won when it obviously, you know, has not.

[Ailsa Chang]

Another possible off ramp is, of course, a negotiated settlement, but that seems pretty hard to imagine at this moment, don't you think?

[Thomas Wright]

Yeah, I think it's. It would be very difficult to imagine, partly because, you know, I think Iran will hold out for a deal that is more favorable to it than what it would have gotten before the war started. But I think that would be very tough for President Trump to accept. And so Iran is sort of counting on, as the economic cost increases and the energy markets are roiled, that Trump will look at compromise, messy compromises over time.

[Ailsa Chang]

Well, the Trump administration continues to argue that this war in Iran is different from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which it says were the result of blunders by foolish politicians. But let me ask you, how much of a risk is there that this conflict in Iran turns into a similar mess with repercussions that last years and years?

[Thomas Wright]

You know, no one intends wars initially to be very long, and certainly George W. Bush intended the war in Iraq to be short. The administration's view is that the reason those were long was rules of engagement that inhibited the US from using force as much as was needed. I think that is, you know, demonstrably not true. And the second thing they say is that Bush tried to build democracy in Iraq and they're not concerned about building a democratic Jeffersonian democracy. But I think that also misrepresents the challenge, because what governments find in these situations is they're trying to establish any type of government that does not view them as an enemy and is sort of stable domestically and averts sort of a descent into chaos. So they, too, have this problem.

[Ailsa Chang]

Thomas Wright, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former director for strategic planning at the National Security Council during the Biden administration, thank you very much for joining us.

[Thomas Wright]

Thank you.

[Ailsa Chang]

This episode was produced by Connor Donovan with audio engineering by Ted Mebane. It was edited by Tinbit Ermias. Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun. It's consider this from NPR. I'm Ilsa Chang.

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