Consider This from NPR

Episode: Why Israeli assassinations aren't working the way they hope

Date: March 22, 2026
Host: Adrienne Ma
Guest: Yossi Melman (journalist, Tel Aviv), Jenna Jordan (Georgia Tech professor and expert on decapitation strikes)

Episode Overview

This episode of "Consider This" explores why the ongoing strategy of targeted assassinations, or "decapitation strikes," by Israel and the United States against Iranian leadership is failing to achieve its strategic goals. Following the joint U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and the killings of top Iranian officials, the show examines the intended impact of such strikes and the grim reality: instead of toppling the regime or hastening the end of war, the strikes may be prolonging conflict and causing further instability.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Context: The War with Iran and Assassination Strategy

• On February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched a war against Iran, targeting and killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other top Iranian leaders.
• President Trump’s aim: use these killings to trigger popular uprising against the Iranian regime.
• Despite ongoing assassinations (including longtime security official Ali Larajani), there has been no popular uprising.
• Communication with Iran’s government is now complicated due to the lack of leaders to negotiate with.

Trump:
“We’re having a hard time. We want to talk to them, and there’s nobody to talk to. We have nobody to talk to. And you know what? We like it that way.” ([01:08])

2. Are Decapitation Strikes Effective? Expert Opinion

• Jenna Jordan (Georgia Tech):
  • Assassinations may disrupt and delay but do not topple regimes. Instead, they may embolden successors.

“Continuing to target the leadership is not going to topple the regime. It might cause delays, it might cause disruption. But what I think it does is that it’s emboldening the leaders that are stepping into their positions.” ([01:34])

3. On-the-Ground Insight: Israeli Perspective with Yossi Melman

• Reaction to Recent Iranian Strikes on Israel
  • Missiles targeted southern Israeli cities near the nuclear research center.
  • No surprise in Israel; missile threat is constant from Iran and Hezbollah.
  • Israeli public is fatigued by repeated alarms and sheltering, with 30% lacking adequate shelters.
  • The mood is exhaustion amid a war of attrition, not the quick victory Israel hoped for.

Yossi Melman:
“It is becoming a war of attrition with no sight of ending it. Israelis … are fatigued … Most Israelis are waking up every night for the last 23 days … and running to the shelters.” ([04:25])

• History & Mechanics of Israel’s Assassination Strategy
  • Decades-old approach; began with targeting scientists in Egypt (1960s), then Iraq, Hamas leaders, now Iranian officials.
  • Mossad’s deep infiltration: recruiting agents, bugging phones, smuggling weapons, building infrastructure for assassinations.
  • Belief in targeted killing as a solution is flawed; eliminated leaders are simply replaced.

Melman:
“It gives a feeling that Israel is in love in this kind of targeted killing or assassinations and believe this is the only solution as a problem solver. But it’s wrong because it doesn’t lead us anywhere … Every leader, every commander that has been killed, sooner or later a replacement is being found.” ([05:36])

4. The Reality after High-Profile Strikes

• Earlier confidence by Israeli and U.S. leaders (after striking Iranian nuclear sites) has faded; the cycle of violence and replacement continues.
• War outcomes are measured by how they end, not by initial victories—yet no end is in sight.

Melman:
“…Nine months ago, Israel and the United States, mostly Israel, … attacked Iran. … And here we are nine months after, we are doing more of the same. More, more of the same with no tangible results. And maybe we are going into a perpetual war.” ([08:34])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• President Trump:
  “Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take.” ([00:04])
• Jenna Jordan (on the decapitation strategy):
  “What I think it does is that it’s emboldening the leaders that are stepping into their positions.” ([01:41])
• Yossi Melman (on Israeli sentiment):
  “There is a feeling of fatigue, feeling that we don’t see an end to it and it’s very, very difficult to maintain a daily routine.” ([04:25])
• Yossi Melman (on perpetual conflict):
  “Maybe we are going into a perpetual war.” ([08:34])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:00-01:17 — Introduction and Trump’s rationale for the war and assassination campaign
• 01:17-01:51 — Jenna Jordan on why decapitation strikes fail to achieve strategic goals
• 03:17-04:25 — Yossi Melman’s reaction to recent Iranian missile strikes and Israeli public mood
• 05:36-07:00 — History and mechanics of Israel’s assassination operations
• 08:13-08:40 — Reflection on the cycle of violence and lack of progress

Takeaways

• The ongoing decapitation strikes by Israel and the U.S. have not catalyzed Iranian regime change, as hoped.
• Targeted assassinations disrupt and delay but have not ended Iran’s ability to govern, retaliate, or wage war.
• The Israeli public is experiencing significant fatigue and disruption with no end in sight; the risk is a perpetual, grinding conflict.
• Intelligence experts and on-the-ground analysts challenge the belief that killing leaders can shortcut deeply entrenched political and social conflicts.