Conspiracy Theories, Cults, & Crimes

Holiday Special: The New Year's Murders 1 with Carter Roy

Date: December 30, 2025
Hosts: Vanessa Richardson, Carter Roy

Episode Overview

This holiday special is the first of a two-part deep dive into the mysterious disappearance of Olivia Hope (17) and Ben Smart (21), who vanished after a New Year’s Eve party at Furneaux Lodge in the Marlborough Sounds, New Zealand, in 1998. Hosts Vanessa Richardson (Conspiracy Theories, Cults & Crimes) and Carter Roy (True Crime Stories) reconstruct the events leading up to Ben and Olivia’s last known moments, spotlight early suspects, and examine the investigative challenges and critical missteps that turned this into one of New Zealand’s biggest unsolved cases.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Scene: New Year’s Eve Promises and Plans

• Olivia and Amelia Hope’s Preparation

  • Olivia and her sister Amelia chartered a yacht to celebrate with friends, marking Olivia’s transition to adulthood as she prepared for college (Otago University) and her father ran for mayor in their hometown.
    [05:11 Vanessa Richardson]

• Ben Smart’s Day

  • Ben, preparing to start work at his father’s firm and enjoying growing success with his local band, began his New Year’s Eve with friends—drinking and playing guitar at a beach house near the lodge.
    [07:07 Vanessa Richardson]

• Party Dynamics and Initial Encounters

  • Olivia was seen with Hamish Rose for much of the evening but sought out Ben as midnight approached. The two finally kissed during the countdown, confirming Olivia’s hopes for a romantic turn.
    [08:01 Carter Roy]

    “Despite her run in with Hamish, it was clear that Olivia only had eyes for Ben. This was her big moment, her chance to take things to the next level.”
    [08:54 Carter Roy]

2. The Fateful Night: Decision-Making Under Party Chaos

• Post-Midnight: Searching for a Place to Sleep

  • Around 4AM, Ben and Olivia attempted to return to their yacht, the Tamarack, but found it overrun by party crashers. With beds occupied and not wanting to disturb others, they sought another place to sleep and encountered other partygoers (Hayden Morrissey and Sarah Dyer) and a mysterious ‘scruffy man’ on a water taxi captained by Guy Wallace.
    [09:20 Vanessa Richardson]

• Critical Encounter

  • The ‘scruffy’ older man—described as between 25-30, unshaven, and drunk—offered Ben and Olivia to stay on his double-masted sailboat. The couple reluctantly accepted, and were last seen boarding the boat around 5AM.
    [11:02 Carter Roy]

    “He said he had a boat and wouldn't mind letting the young couple sleep there, especially Olivia. He definitely sounded kind of creepy. But Ben and Olivia were desperate and besides, they'd be together."
    [11:06 Carter Roy]

3. The Aftermath: Alarm Bells and Initial Search

• Realization of Disappearance

  • Olivia’s absence the next day was initially not alarming—her family assumed she was with Ben. By January 2, both families realized neither could be reached and contacted police. The investigation officially became a missing persons case on January 3.
    [15:39 Carter Roy]

• Early Theories and Witness Accounts

  • Many assumed the couple had run away together, but both had plans they were excited about and no evidence suggested elopement. Witnesses, especially Guy Wallace, gave a consistent, detailed description of the boat and the mysterious man.
    [17:08 Vanessa Richardson]

    “Guy explained that he'd dropped Ben and Olivia off at a 40 foot long two masted boat. He even drew them a picture of it which showed a prominent blue stripe along the side.”
    [17:08 Vanessa Richardson]

4. Escalating Efforts: Suspect Emerges, Investigative Challenges

• The Media Storm and Volume of Leads

  • National media coverage led to a flood of leads. Many referenced a socially abrasive man named Scott Watson, partygoers recalled him as rude and unsettling.
    [19:35 Vanessa Richardson]

• Profile and Interrogation of Scott Watson

  • Watson had a checkered past (48 convictions, mostly burglary/theft), but his appearance, boat description, and timeline didn’t match Wallace’s account. His boat (“Blade”) was a smaller single-masted vessel, red at the party and later repainted blue, adding to police suspicion. [22:48 Carter Roy & 24:43 Vanessa Richardson]

    “Guy said the stranger was long haired, unshaven, and wearing a khaki shirt, but police had photos of Scott from the party. He looked clean shaven, had short hair and was wearing a blue shirt...his boat...had one mast, not two, and was much smaller...”
    [22:48 Carter Roy]

    “Detectives realized just how small [Scott’s boat] was. Guy Wallace was certain that the boat Ben and Olivia got into was around 40ft long, but Scott's was only 26. There was barely enough room for his bed, let alone two unexpected guests.”
    [33:38 Carter Roy]

• Forensic Red Flags

  • Police took Watson’s boat into custody, noting how unusually clean it was (even the cassette tapes were wiped down); Watson claimed regular maintenance, detectives suspected a clean-up to remove forensic traces.
    [33:38 Carter Roy]

• Disputed Descriptions and Memory

  • Wallace and other witnesses insisted the ‘mystery man’ and his boat did not match Watson or the Blade, yet police began pressuring them to reconsider, causing frustration and confusion.
    [27:01 Vanessa Richardson]

    “When Guy stuck to his story, interrogators switched tactics, accusing him of having something to do with Ben and Olivia's deaths. Guy became understandably aggravated over the course of the interview... his story never wavered.”
    [27:26 Vanessa Richardson]

5. The “Mad Dog” Distress Signal and Investigative Tangents

• Mayday Call Mystery

  • On January 2, a mysterious distress call was reportedly made by a woman on a boat called the “Mad Dog” in Tatarangi Bay—the timeline roughly fit Ben and Olivia’s disappearance, but further investigation failed to connect the call to the suspects or missing youths.
    [28:07 Carter Roy – 29:32 Vanessa Richardson]

    “At some point, Sandy mentioned that Scott should have named his ship, the Mad Dog. It was a bizarre thing to say. The detectives instantly wondered if there was a connection...But there was just no way the Blade could have been the ship mentioned in the mayday call.”
    [29:32 Vanessa Richardson]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “People's lives are like a story. There's a beginning, a middle and an end. But you don't always know which part you're on. Sometimes the final chapter arrives far too soon and we don't always get to know the real ending.”
  [01:00 Carter Roy]

• “This was her big moment, her chance to take things to the next level. And it seemed like Ben felt the same way. According to Amelia, the two put their arms around each other and kissed.”
  [08:54 Carter Roy]

• “He definitely sounded kind of creepy. But Ben and Olivia were desperate and besides, they'd be together.”
  [11:06 Carter Roy]

• “They had to rely on witnesses to guide the investigation, which meant getting the word out.”
  [17:38 Vanessa Richardson]

• “It seemed like nothing about the case made sense. But without any other leads, Detectives started to wonder if maybe Guy Wallace was wrong about what he'd seen that morning.”
  [35:57 Carter Roy]

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:44 – Introduction to New Year’s theme & episode concept
• 03:05 – Overview of the case & episode structure
• 05:11 – The Hope sisters’ journey begins
• 07:07 – Ben Smart’s background and party day
• 09:20 – Olivia and Ben’s final hours at the party
• 11:02 – Water taxi ride with Guy Wallace & the mysterious man
• 15:39 – Realization of disappearance and the police’s first steps
• 17:08 – Guy Wallace’s crucial witness account and boat sketch
• 19:35 – Emergence of Scott Watson as a person of interest
• 24:43 – Police investigation of Watson and his boat
• 28:07 – Mayday call about “Mad Dog”
• 33:38 – Forensic investigation of the Blade
• 35:57 – Police begin to doubt Guy Wallace’s witness account

Conclusion

Part 1 of "The New Year’s Murders" meticulously reconstructs the lead-up to and immediate aftermath of a pair of shocking disappearances that captivated New Zealand. With an immersive tone and careful pacing, Vanessa Richardson and Carter Roy present not just the timeline of a crime, but its emotional currents and the investigational uncertainties that haunt the case to this day. This episode ends as forensic evidence becomes the central focus, with the fates of Ben Smart, Olivia Hope, and possibly Scott Watson hanging in the balance. Part 2 promises to cover the controversial investigation, ensuing trial, and the enduring doubts that have kept the case in the public eye.

Summary by Crime House Podcast Summarizer
For listeners, this episode puts you in the crowded, chaotic party and challenging aftermath, offering a narrative that is as much about fear and doubt as about hope for closure—an essential listen for true crime fans who crave depth and detail.