Conspiracy Theories, Cults, & Crimes

HOLIDAY SPECIAL: The New Year's Murders 2 with Carter Roy

Release Date: January 1, 2026
Hosts: Carter Roy & Vanessa Richardson

Overview

This special New Year's episode revisits the high-profile New Zealand case of Ben Smart and Olivia Hope, a pair of young adults who vanished after a 1998 New Year’s Eve party. The episode, featuring Carter Roy and Vanessa Richardson, explores the evidence, the police investigation, and the controversial trial and conviction of Scott Watson. It digs into the unresolved grief of the victims’ families and the persistent doubts about justice being served.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Complex Search for Closure in Tragedy

• Stages of Grief & Missing Closure:
  The show opens by discussing grief, emphasizing that closure is often missing for families of the missing or murdered.
  • Quote: “Grief is a process and it's different for everyone. And for those people who have lost a loved one, that list ... misses a crucial step. Closure.” — Vanessa Richardson [01:04]
• The Hope and Smart families exemplify this prolonged grief, with the lack of bodies or clear answers exacerbating their pain.

2. The Night Ben and Olivia Disappeared

• Party at Furneaux Lodge:
  On January 1, 1998, Ben Smart (21) and Olivia Hope (17) vanished after a crowded New Year’s Eve party in Marlborough Sounds, New Zealand.
• Last Seen Boarding a Stranger’s Boat:
  • Witness, water taxi driver Guy Wallace, reported dropping them (with another male) onto a two-masted, blue-and-white boat — which did not resemble suspect Scott Watson’s actual vessel.
  • Quote: “Guy dropped the three of them off at the Stranger ship, a 40 foot sailboat with two masts painted white with a broad blue stripe along the side. That was the last time anyone saw Ben or Olivia.” — Carter Roy [04:08]

3. The Police Investigation and Focus on Scott Watson

• Suspect Discrepancies:
  • Scott Watson, 26, had a criminal record and abrasive behavior at the party, but:
    • His boat (the Blade) was a smaller, single-mast, red-painted vessel (later repainted blue), not matching Guy’s description.
    • His clean-shaven, short-haired look didn’t fit witnesses’ recollections (“scruffy, long-haired, bearded”).
• Circumstantial Case:
  Despite these inconsistencies, Scott became the sole suspect due to his personality, location, and social reputation.
  • Quote: “Even though his boat and appearance didn't match, police thought his personality did.” — Vanessa Richardson [05:28]

4. Forensic Evidence and Its Limitations

• Physical Evidence Falls Short:

  • Initial forensic searches on the Blade yielded no blood, fingerprints, or trace evidence.
  • A tiger blanket collected from the boat contained over 400 hairs; only two long blond hairs could potentially implicate Olivia, but tests were either inconclusive (sample 13) or suggested only a 28,000 times match to her maternal line (sample 12 — could be Olivia or her sister).
  • Key Moment: “Most of the hairs were brown... But there were also some blonde strands, and Olivia was blonde... None of the hairs were a match for Olivia's.” — Carter Roy [06:44–08:17]

• Scratch Marks and “Clean” Hull:

  • Investigators found scratch marks inside the hatch—interpreted by police as signs of Olivia trapped and clawing to escape, but Scott and his family claimed they were left by his young nieces before the incident.
  • Bare spots on the hull were theorized to have been made by bodies being dumped overboard, although they could have been from pre-party boat cleaning.

• Secondary Transfer Theory:
  The defense explained the possibility of Olivia’s hair reaching the Blade by indirect contact during the party.

  • Quote: “People naturally shed up to 100 hairs every day... It could have gotten onto his boat accidentally.” — Vanessa Richardson [14:30]

5. Police Tactics and Witness Influencing

• Surveillance and Pressure:

  • Police bugged Watson’s home, the neighbors, and a local payphone, overhearing the family joke about harming Detective Rob Pope; the jokes intensified police suspicion.
  • Police also faced criticism for leaking damaging rumors to the press.

• Eyewitness Lineup Concerns:

  • Key witnesses (Guy Wallace and bartender Roz McNeely) repeatedly failed to identify Watson in photo lineups.
  • Police presented a new lineup with a photo of Scott mid-blink, making his eyes appear “narrow”—the standout trait cited by witness Roz. Both picked out Scott, but tentatively and with reservations.
  • Roz was never shown the party-night photo; police declined her request.
  • Memorable Quote: “Roz went home that night feeling a vague sense of doubt that would haunt her for years.” — Carter Roy [18:41]

6. The Trial: Circumstance and Controversy

• Arrest and High-Profile Trial:

  • Scott arrested June 15, 1998, and charged with double homicide.
  • The trial was one of New Zealand’s most publicized; defense focused on timeline and alibi evidence.
  • The prosecution introduced a last-minute “two trip theory” — positing that Scott could have left and returned to shore after 2 a.m. without supporting witnesses.
    • Quote: “They had no witness testimony to corroborate the theory, so it was only speculation.” — Carter Roy [25:04]
  • Two jailhouse informants claimed Scott confessed; one later retracted, admitting fabrication to get a lighter sentence.

• Forensic and Eyewitness Evidence Challenged:

  • The hair evidence’s integrity was contested. Scientist Susan Vintner admitted lab cross-contamination was possible, but she defended her findings.
  • Despite the circumstantial case and retracted testimony, the jury convicted Scott of two counts of murder on September 11, 1999.

7. Post-Trial Doubts and the Erosion of Certainty

• Witnesses Recant:

  • After the verdict, both Roz and Guy Wallace publicly stated the man and the boat they encountered that night were not Scott or the Blade.
  • Jailhouse informant A admitted to lying; Witness B’s claims also lost credibility upon scrutiny.
  • Quote: “She was sure that the scruffy man she remembered was not Scott Watson.” — Vanessa Richardson [28:55]

• Family and Public Uncertainty:

  • Even Olivia’s father, Gerald Hope, began doubting the police’s case and Scott’s guilt, feeling the investigation was too narrowly focused and flawed.

8. Appeals and Enduring Mystery

• Legal Battles and Public Sentiment:
  • Scott’s legal team argued procedural unfairness (the late “two trip theory”), but appeals were denied.
  • Public attitudes shifted over time—from majority conviction of Scott’s guilt to increased doubt.
• Latest Review:
  • In 2025, a new review of evidence again found the original forensic case admissible, and Scott’s appeal was denied.
• The Truth Remains Lost:
  • Scott remains in prison—his behavior and refusal to admit guilt counting against parole.
  • Families are left without true closure, and public debate continues.
  • Quote: “We never got the truth. We haven't got the truth yet. Hopefully one day they will.” — Gerald Hope to Scott Watson [33:43]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Closure:
  “Anyone who's lost someone knows it's not that simple... that list... misses a crucial step. Closure.”
  — Vanessa Richardson [00:42–01:04]

• On Evidence Doubt:
  “All of the tests run on sample 13 were inconclusive... The lab determined it had been contaminated... The hair could have been Olivia's. But there was no way to tell.”
  — Carter Roy [10:38]

• On Identification Process:
  “Roz went home that night feeling a vague sense of doubt that would haunt her for years.”
  — Carter Roy [18:41]

• On the Trial’s Manipulation:
  “They claimed that Scott did indeed return to the blade around 2am. Then at some point after that... he came back to shore. They had no witness testimony to corroborate the theory.”
  — Carter Roy [25:04]

• On Changing Public Opinion:
  “In 2002, a survey found 59% of New Zealanders believe Scott was guilty of murder. By 2007, that number had dropped to 42%.”
  — Carter Roy [30:53]

• On Lasting Uncertainty:
  “We never got the truth. We haven't got the truth yet.”
  — Gerald Hope (Olivia’s father), recounted by Carter Roy [33:43]

Timestamps for Major Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | Highlights | |-----------|----------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:42 | Grief and the Search for Closure | Grief's complexity, closure missing for families | | 04:08 | Overview of Disappearance | Last sighting, water taxi, and the misidentified boat | | 05:28 | Initial Focus on Scott Watson | Circumstantial nature of case, suspect discrepancies | | 06:44 | Forensic Searches and Hair Analysis | Tiger blanket hairs, forensic frustrations | | 08:17 | Crucial Evidence and Police Theories | Scratch marks, hull observations, secondary transfer | | 14:30 | Hair Evidence and Its Limitations | Secondary transfer, doubts on forensic certainty | | 15:33 | Police Tactics and Witness Intimidation | Surveillance, media pressure, witness handling | | 18:41 | Eyewitness Lineup Issues | Manipulative photo choices, witness uncertainty | | 21:13 | Arrest of Scott Watson | Prosecution’s mounting case, community anticipation | | 23:36 | The Trial: Evidence and Strategy | Key prosecution and defense arguments, introduction of “two trip theory” | | 25:04 | Controversial Prosecution Theories | Jailhouse informants, scratch marks, hair analysis challenges| | 28:15 | Verdict and Immediate Aftermath | Watson’s sentencing, instant public skepticism | | 28:55 | Witness Recantations and Doubts | Bartender and water taxi driver voice regret | | 32:25 | Post-conviction and Appeals | Unsuccessful appeals, fluctuating public belief | | 33:43 | Unresolved Ending | Gerald Hope’s search for truth, families’ lack of closure |

Tone and Closing Reactions

The episode conveys the frustration, lingering pain, and moral ambiguity surrounding the case, blending empathy for the families with skepticism about police and prosecutorial conduct. The unresolved questions and shifting testimony create an uneasy, somber mood, laying bare the complexity of high-profile justice.

In summary:
This episode dissects the problematic conviction of Scott Watson for the murders of Olivia Hope and Ben Smart, spotlighting enduring doubts, recanted evidence, and the profound ache for closure. For both the Hope and Smart families, and for all listeners, the case leaves a haunting lesson: sometimes the legal system’s ending is not the real ending — and the truth can remain agonizingly out of reach.