Conspirituality Podcast Episode 284 Summary: “When Prophecy-Science Fails” (w/ Thomas Kelly)
Date: November 20, 2025
Hosts: Derek Beres, Matthew Remski, Julian Walker
Guest: Thomas Kelly (Political Scientist & Researcher)
Episode Overview
This episode challenges one of social psychology’s most recognized studies: When Prophecy Fails (1956) by Leon Festinger and colleagues. The hosts, joined by political scientist Thomas Kelly, dissect recent revelations from newly unsealed archives that suggest the study’s methodology was flawed and even deceptive. They question the validity of the cognitive dissonance theory as it has been popularly understood, especially in the context of cult dynamics, failed prophecies, and the persistence of belief in conspiratorial spiritual movements.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The Story Behind When Prophecy Fails
[03:22] Julian Walker:
- When Prophecy Fails is centered on a 1954 doomsday UFO cult led by Dorothy Martin, who predicted an apocalyptic flood and alien rescue.
- Festinger’s team embedded themselves in the cult to observe reactions to the prophecy’s failure.
- This study is the cornerstone for the concept of “cognitive dissonance”—when faced with contradictory evidence, believers double down rather than admit error.
[05:49] Walker & Remski:
- Festinger’s background and academic influence; the methodological flaws in immersing oneself in subject groups under false pretenses.
- The study’s long-term influence on both academic and pop cultures’ understanding of belief persistence.
2. Critiquing the Study and Its Legacy
[07:20] Remski:
- The methods reflected the behaviorist tendencies of the time, treating subjects like experimental animals rather than autonomous humans.
- “They were kind of treating these folks like they were pigeons in Skinner boxes. But the irony was they were in the boxes themselves, along with the group members.” — [07:20]
[08:52] Walker:
- Discusses the controversial “participant observer” methodology (researchers infiltrating the group as fake recruits).
- Notes contemporary ethical standards would not allow such deception.
[10:45] Walker & Remski:
- Explains cognitive dissonance: a mechanism for resolving the discomfort between beliefs and disproven realities.
- Notes implications for understanding modern phenomena (QAnon, political cultism).
[13:49] Remski:
- Democratic backsliding and “doubling down” are more complex than cognitive dissonance alone can explain; economic/material interests often provide the real foundation.
[15:38] Walker:
- Distinction: Failed prophecies usually cause most followers to leave, not intensify proselytization (contrary to Festinger’s claims).
- “What seems to happen actually more often than what Festinger et al. said is that you lose a lot of the less hardcore followers as the prophecies fail or as the hypocrisy gets revealed.” — [16:10]
3. Historical and Modern Parallels
[20:00] Discussion:
- The “Great Disappointment” of 1844 and its splintering effects on American religious history (e.g., Seventh-day Adventists, Jehovah’s Witnesses).
- A pattern is established: failed prophecies often lead to schisms or abandonment, not unified reinforcement.
[25:50] Remski:
- Observes that the most committed group members are often those with the least material security or fewest alternatives, not the most fervent believers.
4. Cognitive Dissonance in Modern Movements
[27:50] Walker:
- QAnon and “prophetic” political movements exhibit cycles of failed prediction followed by rationalization or pivoting (March 4, 2021, etc.).
- Wellness and New Age industries also pivot following failed prophecies (e.g., 2012 Mayan prophecy), capitalizing on “prophecy as product.”
[30:03] Remski & Walker:
- Consumerist engine behind failed prophecies enables easy adaptation: “If you’re selling products and services or experiences based on prophecy, well, then you always need new prophecy, right?” — [31:01]
5. Key Scholarly Reappraisals
[32:23] Walker:
- References to other research:
- 1994’s “When Festinger Fails” (Jehovah’s Witnesses’ ability to move past failed prophecies due to institutional structure).
- 2011’s “Moving Beyond Festinger” by Dawson.
[33:38] Remski:
- Cognitive dissonance theory, despite its intuitive appeal, is overly reductive when applied to major religions and social movements; fails to account for economic, social, and political factors.
Interview with Thomas Kelly (Political Scientist & Author of “Debunking When Prophecy Fails”)
(Commences at 46:38)
Why Re-examine When Prophecy Fails?
- Kelly describes his initial fascination in 2023, spurred by the study’s mythic status.
- While reading, detects inconsistencies: cult members were actually evangelizing before the prophecy failed, contradictory to Festinger’s narrative.
Quote:
"They were trying to publish a book of their teachings. Wow, that seems pretty committed to evangelism to me." — Thomas Kelly [47:51]
Newly Unsealed Archives: What Did Kelly Find?
[49:30] Kelly:
- Accessed Box #4 at the University of Michigan in 2025; transcripts, research notes, and communications revealed researchers collaborated to shape the group’s direction.
- Brother Henry (researcher Henry Reichen) fabricated psychic messages to steer group reactions and rationalizations.
- “They were really enmeshed. For instance, the leader makes up a special ring called Perique…and there’s three of them, and two of them are genuine members but the third one is yet another research assistant who’s joined the group.” — [63:40]
Ethical Disaster:
- The researchers played roles as true believers and actively provoked, manipulated, and shaped the group’s “rationalization” of prophetic failure.
- Selectively reported data that fit their theory, ignoring evidence of pre-failure proselytization.
Notable Quote: "He explicitly tells them, yes, the Space Brothers sent me here. I was sent to be the earthly verifier, is what he said. So you now all have to sit down for an interview with me and answer me honestly. And so these interviews conducted under the auspices of Alien Direction, are then some of the evidence that these people maintained their beliefs." — Kelly on Reichen’s manipulation [64:45]
Fallout for Cognitive Dissonance Theory
[66:52] Kelly:
- Festinger already had his theory and designed the study to fit it—not the other way around.
- The “flagship” case was always dubious; its influence on religious studies, especially Christianity, was unfounded given the real story.
[69:53] Kelly:
- The popularity of cognitive dissonance in biblical scholarship is often a reductionist substitute for more nuanced theological, psychological, or political explanations.
- “When Prophecy Fails…I would say can’t explain the origins of any religion because, like, it’s like a fake study.” — [71:20]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
On the Nature of Failed Prophecies:
- “Religious prophecies always fail. Especially the more specific they are, the more likely they are to fail.” — Julian [16:10]
On Reductionism:
- “It is this unfortunate tendency… like doing a just so story. Right. You’ve got a heuristic and you’re going to apply it to all these different things.” — Walker [36:07]
On Ethical Journalism and Research:
- “The freedom to be cruel is one of journalism’s uncontested privileges. And the rendering of subjects as if they were characters in bad novels is one of its widely accepted conventions.” — Janet Malcolm, quoted by Remski [43:56]
On Historical Amnesia:
- “Dorothy Martin was not, like, a quiet person. Like, there were lots of people wrote about her in the following years. So she had all these opportunities to regather her cult or, like, defend her beliefs, and she refused to.” — Kelly [69:20]
Timestamps for Crucial Segments
- 04:28: Intro to the study and its legacy in social psychology
- 10:45: Explaining cognitive dissonance in detail
- 15:38: How failed prophecies actually play out in real-world movements
- 20:00: Historical examples of religious prophecy failures and schisms
- 25:50: Who stays after prophecies fail and why
- 27:50: QAnon and modern New Age parallels
- 32:23: Research literature challenging Festinger
- 33:38: Problems with cognitive dissonance as universal explanation
- 46:38: Interview with Thomas Kelly begins
- 49:30: The unsealed archives and the ethical disaster unveiled
- 56:28: In-depth unraveling of how researchers manipulated and shaped events
- 66:52: How cognitive dissonance theory got “locked in” despite its flaws
- 69:53: Cognitive dissonance, Christianity, and the dangers of reductionism
Conclusion
This episode critically reevaluates the foundational study of cognitive dissonance, casting doubt on its methodology and its broad claims about human behavior in the face of failed prophecy. Through Thomas Kelly’s archival research, a new picture emerges: not only is belief persistence far more complex, but Festinger and colleagues actively shaped the narrative they later analyzed. The hosts urge listeners to question reductionist explanations for complex phenomena, especially as they relate to cults, conspiracies, religion, and political polarization.
Recommended for listeners interested in:
- The history and ethics of social science research
- The dynamics of belief and disillusionment
- Critical perspectives on conspiracy and cult movements
- Academic self-reflection and skepticism