Contested Ground

Assessing the fallout and implications of the latest Trump–Xi meeting for Iran, Taiwan and Australia

When the leaders of the world's two major powers meet, the world stops to take notice and nowhere is this clearer than in the recent meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. There is no escaping the fact that the US–China relationship will be the defining factor of the 21st century, for good or for ill. Join Contested Ground hosts, Steve Kuper and Major General (Ret'd) Dr Marcus Thompson, as they deep dive into the real-world ramifications and fallout following the meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. The pair discuss the shared US–China interest in preventing a renewed trade war and keeping the fragile trade truce intact. Strategically, Taiwan remains the most sensitive and unresolved issue. Xi Jinping frames it as the central risk in the bilateral relationship and warns of the consequences of mismanagement, while Trump largely avoids escalation during formal engagements, later suggesting continued engagement on the issue without committing to a clear stance. Across the wider strategic agenda, the pair cover discussions on military posture, technology restrictions, sanctions and third-party conflicts such as Ukraine, Iran and the Middle East. The pair also discuss the state mutual preference to avoid escalation amid broader global instability, including energy security concerns and supply chain fragility. Finally, they discuss Xi's messaging, which emphasises long-term great-power coexistence, multipolar stability and opposition to bloc confrontation. This presents China as a steady global actor advocating managed competition alongside the traditional Trump approach of more transactional realpolitik, centred on trade, investment flows and market stability, with an emphasis on maintaining flexibility and direct leader-to-leader communication. Enjoy the podcast, The Contested Ground team

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Australia and the West must ask themselves new questions in the face of the modern world, with Robbin Laird

4w ago00:35:43Tap to summarize

Each and every day, the world is becoming more unpredictable, yet Australia continues with the post-Cold War status quo. As things continue to deteriorate, we're going to have to ask ourselves some particularly confronting questions. Australia and its allies are entering an "age of chaos" in which the assumptions that shaped the post-Cold War order are rapidly breaking down. Rather than dealing with isolated crises that can be managed and resolved individually, governments, militaries, and societies are now confronting overlapping and mutually reinforcing disruptions, including strategic competition, technological upheaval, economic fragmentation, supply chain vulnerability, and the rise of networked authoritarian powers. Central to Australia's response is understanding the distinction between traditional "crisis management" and "chaos management". Crisis management assumes stability will eventually return and institutions can revert to previous norms once a disruption passes. Chaos management, by contrast, accepts that instability, uncertainty, and persistent competition are now enduring features of the strategic environment. In this episode of the Contested Ground podcast, host Steve Kuper is joined by expert defence and security analyst and White House veteran Robbin Laird to discuss the impact of the emergence of the era of disruption. This only becomes more important and pivotal as we grapple with the reality that the international system is no longer defined by uncontested Western dominance, nor is it returning to a simple Cold War-style bipolar structure. Rather, the world is evolving into a fragmented and highly interconnected environment where economic dependency and geopolitical rivalry coexist simultaneously, particularly between the United States and China. This creates strategic complexity for middle powers such as Australia, whose decisions on defence, trade, industrial policy, and alliances will increasingly shape the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Australia's response to this is recognising the growing importance of resilience and sovereign capability. The author argues that efficiency and globalisation can no longer be the sole priorities for democratic nations if they undermine strategic security. Supply chains, industrial capacity, digital infrastructure, and technological innovation are increasingly viewed as national security issues rather than purely economic considerations. In this context, adaptability, redundancy, and the ability to rapidly regenerate capability are presented as critical determinants of national power. Ultimately, democratic nations must rethink how they approach leadership, preparedness, and strategy in a world defined by accelerating disruption. Rather than attempting to restore an increasingly obsolete status quo, governments and institutions must develop the capacity to operate effectively amid prolonged uncertainty, while strengthening alliances, industrial resilience, and societal cohesion to navigate an increasingly contested global order. Enjoy the podcast, The Contested Ground Team

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The Defence budget, inflationary pressures and domestic information warfare

Apr 2900:34:22Tap to summarize

The release and messaging surrounding the 2026 National Defence Strategy and 2026 Integrated Investment Program is just the latest salvo in the government's effort to direct the national conversation about our national security. With the government emphasising major increases in Defence spending over the next decade, the government is hoping that the headline figures and a lack of public understanding of Defence spending will be enough to convince the nation we're doing enough to protect our interests. Hosts Phil Tarrant, Major General (Ret'd) Dr Marcus Thompson and Steve Kuper deep dive into the current battle for control of the narrative and the unfolding strategies being leveraged to target various Australian demographics, with specific examples in the economic domain as Australians face increasing inflation and fuel insecurity despite what they're being told. The trio also unpack the latest announcements around the winds of change sweeping through the Department of Defence, with the recent appointments to chief of Defence, chief of Army and the appointment of the new secretary of Defence designed to emphasise the government's priority areas: national resilience and sovereignty. Enjoy the podcast, The Contested Ground team

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Shipping, supply chains and Australia's exposure to a volatile system, with UNSW's Professor Douglas Guilfoyle and Associate Professor Daniel Prior

Apr 2000:41:57Tap to summarize

We are consistently reminded that Australia is a maritime trading nation and, as such, is exposed to all the vulnerabilities. So why haven't we prepared accordingly? As the ceasefire in the Middle East collapses and both sides begin to once again ramp up their efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz and the globally sensitive waterway, Australia is reminded of its inherent vulnerability to global maritime shocks. To date, Australia's response to these challenges has been to default to the organs and institutions established by the post-World War II order, seeking arbitration, mediation and resolution, however, those mechanisms no longer suffice. In this episode of the Contested Ground podcast, host Steve Kuper is joined by UNSW's Professor Douglas Guilfoyle and Associate Professor Daniel Prior, authors of the World in Transition report detailing the challenges which face Australia and now thrown into public focus as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. The trio deep dive into the legal, economic and political challenges that have emerged as a result of the conflict in the Middle East and Australia's mounting issues that will only continue to compound in the coming months. They also discuss the ramifications of post-Cold War globalisation and the creation and vulnerability of the "just in time" supply chain ecosystems and what can be done to minimise our exposure to these challenges. Finally, they also interrogate the phenomena of "friendshoring" and "reshoring" as solutions to bringing supply chains closer to home as a means of securing national interests and what models can be leveraged to change Australia's self-inflicted vulnerability. Enjoy the podcast, The Contested Ground team

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Successive governments have failed to prepare Australia for the era of polycrisis, with Marc Ablong PSM, Geostrategic Risk Partners

Apr 1500:36:26Tap to summarize

The war in the Middle East has served to reveal the now metastising vulnerabilities that permeate Australia's economic, political and strategic ecosystems, leaving the nation and its interests exposed. Australians are increasingly getting the sense that the country is rudderless, struggling to overcome the mounting swell that is serving to swamp our seemingly ill-prepared national "boat". In the latest episode of the special Contested Ground series unpacking the fallout and implications of the conflict in the Middle East, host Steve Kuper is joined by geostrategic analyst and former Defence policymaker Marc Ablong PSM as they interrogate the nation's preparedness, the era of polycrisis and mobilisation in the modern era. As part of this, the pair deep dive into what makes a "polycrisis" and why it feels like Australia and Australians are seemingly paddling from one storm to another, both at home and abroad, undermining our national resilience and the nation's capacity to rally in the event of major regional crisis. They then move on to dissect the challenges of contemporary mobilisation being faced by Australia and like-minded nations across Europe and the United Kingdom, specifically the issues surrounding social cohesion, economic, political and social dislocation and atomisation among young Australians that directly impact national security and resilience. Finally, the pair discuss Australia's glaring lack of compelling narrative and plan to rally Australians of all generations that leave many feeling like Australia is inescapably caught in a period of managed decline, at a time when the nation's economic, political and strategic security and prosperity faces increasing tension and challenge. Enjoy the podcast, The Contested Ground team

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Apathy, complacency and the 'Lucky Country', Australia's predicament is entirely self-inflicted, with Ben Dullroy

Mar 3000:55:26Tap to summarize

Australia has long prided itself on being the "Lucky Country", celebrating a culture of "she'll be right" now that a national culture of apathy is biting at home as the world continues to burn. As the war in the Middle East continues to rage by the day, Australia and Australians are beginning to feel the very real ramifications in our daily lives. All of this comes as Australia's political leaders and policymakers continue to point fingers at one another for the respective failures over the past three decades that have all combined to leave Australia dangerously exposed to the shocks of the new multipolar world. But these aren't the only challenges that are serving to leave Australia in a volatile, unpredictable position, as social cohesion, industrial and economic resilience and demographics combine to create a powder keg for both the public and its policymakers. Host Steve Kuper is joined by Ben Dullroy of Beaten Zone Venture Partners and Bravo Delta Advisory as they break down the combination of global and domestic factors shaping the nation's resilience, stability and security. This conversation comes at a time when the public and private debate continues about who has failed the nation, were the ultimate costs of neoliberal hyperglobalisation worth it and can we pivot quickly enough to secure our economic, political and strategic interests? Enjoy the podcast, The Contested Ground team

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Australian resilience during a crisis and sovereign industrial capability

Mar 2600:15:47Tap to summarize

In this episode of the Contested Ground Podcast, hosts Phil Tarrant, Steve Kuper and Major General (Ret'd) Dr Marcus Thompson unpack the concept of sovereign industrial capability and its growing importance amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The trio explore how the idea of sovereignty has evolved from a defence-specific concept into a broader national priority, particularly as global supply chains face disruption and Australia confronts its structural dependencies. They discuss the lack of a clear, shared definition of sovereign capability, and how misunderstandings persist even within defence and national security circles. The conversation highlights the need for Australia to identify and secure critical capabilities domestically, ranging from fuel and logistics to data and cyber resilience. The episode also reflects on lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic and questions whether Australia has made meaningful progress in strengthening self-reliance, or if it remains vulnerable to external shocks. With rising geopolitical tensions and shifting global dynamics, the speakers consider whether the era of globalisation is reaching its limits. These topics include engaging discussion across: The meaning (and ambiguity) of sovereign industrial capability in modern Australia. Lessons from COVID-19 and ongoing reliance on fragile global supply chains. The impact of geopolitical conflict on fuel security, logistics and economic stability. The challenge of building true national resilience versus shifting dependence. The role of political leadership and decision making in shaping sovereign capability. The effects of political fragmentation and polarisation on national security planning. Whether globalisation has reached its limits and the rise of nationalism. The practical components of sovereignty, including fuel, munitions, cyber resilience and industrial capacity. Enjoy the podcast, The Contested Ground team

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From Tehran to Sydney – why war could reshape Australian property

Mar 2400:41:21Tap to summarize

What does the war in Iran have to do with Australian housing? Potentially, everything. In this bold episode of the Contested Ground Podcast, Phillip Tarrant, Major General (Ret'd) Dr Marcus Thompson and leading real estate commentator Tom Panos unpack one of the most overlooked questions in Australia right now: how escalating conflict in the Middle East could reshape the nation's property market. From fuel prices, inflation and interest rates to rents, construction costs, investor confidence and housing supply, this is a serious attempt to connect global conflict with local property pain (or, maybe, opportunity). The conversation explores whether Australia's real estate market is resilient enough to withstand another major shock, what it means for home owners and investors, and why the consequences of war can hit far closer to home than many realise. This is not just a discussion about foreign affairs. This podcast episode is sharp, original and one of the first serious efforts to examine how geopolitics could directly shape the future of Australian housing. Enjoy the podcast, The Contested Ground team

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War without borders – the disinformation threat arriving in Australia

Mar 2300:33:01Tap to summarize

In this episode of the Contested Ground Podcast, host Phil Tarrant sits down with co-host Major General (Ret'd) Dr Marcus Thompson to unpack the second-order effects of the ongoing Middle East conflict – and what it could mean for Australia's security environment. The latest Contested Ground Podcast explores how the Middle East conflict could affect Australia, with a focus on cyber disinformation and proxy activity. Tarrant highlights that influence operations are most likely to arrive online rather than on our shores, while Thompson notes the growing role of AI-driven deepfakes, synthetic media, and coordinated social media campaigns in shaping public perception. Both hosts question Australia's preparedness to counter foreign interference, warning that disinformation could inflame social and political divisions. They also flag economic impacts, including rising fuel prices and supply chain pressures, as likely long-term effects. A central theme of the discussion was resilience. Australians need to critically assess the information they consume, recognising that modern conflict extends well beyond traditional battlefields and into the digital domain. Enjoy the podcast, The Contested Ground team

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The intersection of finance, organised crime, terrorism and foreign interference with Keith Bulfin

Mar 1900:42:32Tap to summarize

In this episode of the Contested Ground podcast, host Steve Kuper speaks with financial intelligence expert and author, Keith Bulfin as they unpack the intricacies of the global financial systems and the weaponisation of the institutions by organised crime, terrorist and state-backed networks. The pair discuss a range of subjects including the ramifications of lax regulation and enforcement, that has resulted in significant funding, resources and technology making its way to organised crime and rogue regimes, especially Iran. Mr Bulfin's experience working for the US Department of Justice and consulting with law enforcement and intelligence communities on the financial networks of organised crime organisations like the Mexican cartels and their overlap with terror organisations. The interconnected ecosystems linking organised criminal enterprises, paramilitary and terror groups through hubs in the Middle East, particularly via hubs in Iran, the UAE, Asia and Africa. The diverse areas of growth focus for these organisations as they seek to collaborate and circumvent traditional law and intelligence countermeasures to expand their operational impact and revenue streams. The challenges presented by the growing symbiotic relationship between traditionally isolated organisations, that now share common objectives and means for furthering their business, or political reach. The continuing flow of "black money" from nations like China and India, that continue to flow into Australia, exposing our economy to major vulnerabilities across areas like real estate, consumer goods and services. Enjoy the podcast, The Contested Ground Team

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All episodes

Assessing the fallout and implications of the latest Trump–Xi meeting for Iran, Taiwan and Australia

Australia and the West must ask themselves new questions in the face of the modern world, with Robbin Laird

The Defence budget, inflationary pressures and domestic information warfare

Shipping, supply chains and Australia's exposure to a volatile system, with UNSW's Professor Douglas Guilfoyle and Associate Professor Daniel Prior

Successive governments have failed to prepare Australia for the era of polycrisis, with Marc Ablong PSM, Geostrategic Risk Partners

Apathy, complacency and the 'Lucky Country', Australia's predicament is entirely self-inflicted, with Ben Dullroy

Australian resilience during a crisis and sovereign industrial capability

From Tehran to Sydney – why war could reshape Australian property

War without borders – the disinformation threat arriving in Australia

The intersection of finance, organised crime, terrorism and foreign interference with Keith Bulfin