Podcast Summary: "Niall Ferguson: What Happens Next in Iran Will Change the Middle East Forever"
Podcast: Conversations With Coleman
Host: Coleman Hughes
Guest: Niall Ferguson (historian, senior fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution)
Date: January 15, 2026
Episode Overview
This episode explores the ongoing anti-regime protests in Iran, the government’s violent crackdown, and the far-reaching geopolitical implications of potential regime change. Coleman Hughes and Niall Ferguson delve into the current crisis’s roots—economic decline, foreign policy blunders, and crisis of legitimacy—while debating the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions, the legacy of Western intervention, and how the region and global powers like the U.S., China, and Russia are poised to respond. Ferguson, known for his incisive historical and strategic analysis, argues that this moment represents not just another Iranian uprising, but the most credible threat yet to the Islamic Republic’s existence.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Prelude to the 2025-26 Uprising in Iran
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Economic Collapse
- Iran’s currency collapse and inflation (50% general, 70% in food), compounded by renewed UN sanctions and bank failures, have triggered massive discontent. [03:14]
- Newly elected President Massoud Pecheshkian’s $7-per-month stipend is seen as out of touch—“In Iran, $7 buys two slices of pizza or one bottle of cooking oil.” [05:27]
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Beyond Economics: Legitimacy Crisis
- Recent protests move beyond previous waves’ economic focus. Protesters now openly call for regime change and even the restoration of the monarchy, a leap from the Green Movement (2009) or Mahsa Amini unrest (2022). [07:33]
“I think the thing that's really striking about these protests is that they are so explicitly hostile to the regime and they are calling for regime change.” - Niall Ferguson [07:35]
- Recent protests move beyond previous waves’ economic focus. Protesters now openly call for regime change and even the restoration of the monarchy, a leap from the Green Movement (2009) or Mahsa Amini unrest (2022). [07:33]
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Foreign Policy Disasters as a Trigger
- Major Israeli and US military actions—Israeli airstrikes, US stealth raids on the Fordo nuclear site—have humiliated the regime and undermined its legitimacy at home. [09:25]
“I don't think the protests would be happening just because of inflation. Part of what's going on is that the regime has suffered really pretty disastrous foreign policy reverses...” - Niall Ferguson [09:40]
- Major Israeli and US military actions—Israeli airstrikes, US stealth raids on the Fordo nuclear site—have humiliated the regime and undermined its legitimacy at home. [09:25]
2. Protest Slogans & Regime Alienation
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Popular Slogans
- Hugely popular street slogan:
“Neither Gaza nor Lebanon, my life for Iran.” [10:53]
- Criticizes Iran’s spending on foreign proxies instead of improving citizens' lives.
- Hugely popular street slogan:
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Comparison to Western Debates
- Coleman draws an analogy between U.S. debates over military spending and the Iranian sense of misplaced priorities—but notes the stakes in Iran are much higher.
3. The Effectiveness of Sanctions
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Limits of Sanctions
- Ferguson argues sanctions alone rarely topple regimes; they mainly limit resources for destabilizing activities. Real change only comes with combined pressure and credible force. [12:58]
“Alone by themselves, sanctions can achieve relatively little... but what they have done in the case of Iran, is to prevent the regime having more resources available to disperse to its terrorist proxies.” - Niall Ferguson [13:06]
- Ferguson argues sanctions alone rarely topple regimes; they mainly limit resources for destabilizing activities. Real change only comes with combined pressure and credible force. [12:58]
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The Doctrine of 'Maximum Leverage' and Trump
- Trump’s unpredictability and willingness to use abrupt force have given the US far more leverage than previous presidents. [15:17]
“...what that signal sent to the entire world is I'm willing to do things that everyone will call me crazy for... And this gives him an enormous amount of leverage in a situation, much more leverage than any other US President, Republican or Democrat, would have in this situation.” - Coleman Hughes [15:40]
- Trump’s unpredictability and willingness to use abrupt force have given the US far more leverage than previous presidents. [15:17]
4. The 'Madman Theory' in Modern American Foreign Policy
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Nixonian Echoes
- Ferguson draws parallels to Nixon's 'madman theory,' but notes Trump’s unpredictability is widely taken seriously.
“Trump's a successful version of madman theory. The Russians, the Iranians, everybody now understands that he's capable of taking great risks.” - Niall Ferguson [17:26]
- Ferguson draws parallels to Nixon's 'madman theory,' but notes Trump’s unpredictability is widely taken seriously.
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China as the Key Exception
- China remains unmoved by Trump’s 'madman' reputation, wielding its economic leverage (rare earths, tariffs). [19:00]
5. The 1953 Coup & The Legacy of Western Intervention
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Deconstructing the Narrative
- Ferguson says the US role is often exaggerated—the 1953 coup was more a British operation, set in the context of fading imperialism and rising nationalism. [20:56]
“There's a tendency... to exaggerate the importance of the United States. The United States became increasingly important to Iran in the 1970s…” - Niall Ferguson [21:15]
- Ferguson says the US role is often exaggerated—the 1953 coup was more a British operation, set in the context of fading imperialism and rising nationalism. [20:56]
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Lessons From History
- Ferguson: Counter-revolution, especially against a deeply entrenched revolutionary regime, usually fails unless the regime’s security apparatus fractures.
- Both warn about nationalist backlash if the US is seen as orchestrating regime change.
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Coleman on Historical Nuance
- Points out the “golden age of Iranian democracy” often cited by anti-interventionists was itself created by allied invasion in 1941. [27:07]
“So how you look at all the history and come away with the lesson that western meddling is always bad to me seems intellectually dishonest.” - Coleman Hughes [27:36]
- Points out the “golden age of Iranian democracy” often cited by anti-interventionists was itself created by allied invasion in 1941. [27:07]
6. Supporting Regime Change: Rhetoric, Risks, and Realities
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Obama’s 2009 Calculation vs. 2026
- In 2009, US refrained from vocal support for Iranian protesters, fearing to delegitimize them. Now, potential US or Israeli military action elevates the stakes. [31:15]
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Ferguson’s Take
- “Does it make sense to do nothing and sit back and watch the regime massacre thousands of people... Or do you finish the job off that came close to being complete last year?” [33:06]
- Argues removing Iran’s theocracy would benefit the region and the world, likening the moment to “unfinished business” after 2025 strikes.
7. Comparisons with Iraq, Afghanistan, and 'America First' Doctrine
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Is Iran Another Iraq?
- Ferguson: No. No plans for American occupation or nation-building in Iran; the goal is regime destruction, not costly reconstruction. [38:27]
“Nobody is talking about deploying a large American military force to Iran. The question here is simply can the Islamic Republic be toppled as a regime? And I think it's conceivable.” - Niall Ferguson [38:55]
- Acknowledges risks of fragmentation—“Iran is itself an empire, a Persian empire, and it's a very ethnically heterogeneous country...One scenario that's quite plausible is that if you topple the Islamic Republic, the thing just breaks up.” [45:50]
- Ferguson: No. No plans for American occupation or nation-building in Iran; the goal is regime destruction, not costly reconstruction. [38:27]
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On 'America First'
- Coleman distinguishes between legitimate prioritization of US interests and the “America Only movement” that would have the US avoid all global responsibility. [43:21]
8. Monarchies and Political Culture in the Middle East
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Stability of Monarchies
- Monarchies have proven more stable and less violent than Arab republics, though restoring a monarchy (the Shah) to Iran is considered highly improbable. [45:48]
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Diversity and Fragmentation
- Post-regime Iran could fragment; this is a concern for policy planners.
9. Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Shifting Alliances
- Saudi Calculus
- The traditional Saudi-Iran rivalry has fostered quiet alignment with Israel (Abraham Accords), but if Iran loses influence, Saudi incentive to normalize with Israel may weaken. [50:04]
“Every action in foreign policy has downstream consequences. And here's the bad news, so does every inaction.” - Niall Ferguson [53:40]
- The traditional Saudi-Iran rivalry has fostered quiet alignment with Israel (Abraham Accords), but if Iran loses influence, Saudi incentive to normalize with Israel may weaken. [50:04]
10. Russia, China, and the Wider Great Power Game
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Russia's View
- Loss of Iranian and Venezuelan allies is negative; focus returns to Ukraine where outcomes look uncertain. [57:03]
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China’s Long Game
- Iran is a key energy supplier and part of China’s “axis of authoritarians.” However, Taiwan is the true strategic target. [57:50]
“If China's policy has been to build an axis of authoritarians... it's hardly good news if one of those countries is close to regime collapse.” - Niall Ferguson [58:05] “Taiwan is just a far more valuable asset at this moment than Venezuela plus Ukraine, plus anywhere you'd care to name in the Middle East...” - Niall Ferguson [59:45]
- Iran is a key energy supplier and part of China’s “axis of authoritarians.” However, Taiwan is the true strategic target. [57:50]
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Will China Wait Out Trump?
- Uncertainty over Trump’s unpredictability cuts both ways; Chinese may fear his risk appetite but also hope for a deal:
“Trump's preference is for the deal. The military action always comes after the counterparty has basically proved impossible to do a deal with.” - Niall Ferguson [63:10]
- Uncertainty over Trump’s unpredictability cuts both ways; Chinese may fear his risk appetite but also hope for a deal:
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
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On the Nature of Iran’s Protests:
“It's a counter revolution. It's an attempt to get rid of a revolutionary regime and potentially restore the old regime.” - Niall Ferguson [08:05]
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On Trump’s Foreign Policy:
“There is nothing so crazy that I won't maybe do it, even if it pisses off my base, they'll come with me.” - Coleman Hughes [15:40]
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On Sanctions:
“They are part of the toolkit of warfare. But if you only use sanctions... sanctions alone will not deliver.” - Niall Ferguson [13:00]
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On Western Intervention:
“You can't just pick the cases that suit your Chomskyite Marxist rants. You have to recognize that American intervention has very often been a force for good. And it would clearly be a force for good if it could overthrow the dictator Ali Khamenei...” - Niall Ferguson [28:33]
Important Segment Timestamps
- 01:26 – Coleman’s overview and structure of the conversation
- 03:14 – Ferguson explains root causes: economy and regime legitimacy
- 07:33 – Why the 2025-26 protests are unique and potentially historic
- 10:53 – Iconic protest slogans and their meaning
- 12:58 – Discussion on sanctions and policy impact
- 15:17 – Trump’s “maximum leverage” approach
- 17:26 – The Madman Theory, Nixon versus Trump
- 20:56 – Revisiting the 1953 coup and historical narratives
- 31:15 – Foreign support: legitimacy vs. backfire
- 33:06 – Should America intervene now?
- 38:27 – Is post-regime Iran another Iraq? Key differences and risks
- 43:21 – Critique of “America First” vs. “America Only”
- 45:48 – Monarchies and the problem of regime restoration
- 50:04 – Implications for Saudi Arabia and Israel
- 57:03 – Russia and China’s strategic viewpoint
- 61:22 – Why China may want to act on Taiwan during Trump’s tenure
Conclusion
Coleman and Niall Ferguson offer a sweeping, incisive look at the unraveling crisis in Iran, stressing the interplay between domestic unrest, foreign policy blunders, and the unpredictable impulses of U.S. global leadership under Trump. The stakes, they stress, are enormous—not just for Iran, but for the broader Middle East and the ongoing great-power competition between the US, Russia, and China. Removing the Islamic Republic could benefit Iranians and regional stability, but carries significant risks of fragmentation and unintended consequences. Meanwhile, those risks must be balanced against the lethal dangers of inaction.
Final thought from Ferguson:
“There would certainly be... real benefits for the people of Iran and for the people of the region and indeed for the people of the world if this awful regime were finally toppled. And this is probably the best chance that we've had to do that at any point since it came into existence.” [50:00]
This summary covers all major themes and arguments from the episode, capturing the spirit, tone, and major concerns voiced by the speakers.