5 ACC & Big 12 Coaches Under Pressure To Over perform in 2025 | If Vegas Is Right | Cover 3

Summary

Cover 3 College Football – March 19, 2025

5 ACC & Big 12 Coaches Under Pressure To Overperform in 2025 | If Vegas Is Right

Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott
Theme: Using Vegas win totals as an objective lens, the Cover 3 crew breaks down which ACC and Big 12 coaches are under the most pressure for the 2025 college football season. They discuss expectations, buyouts, institutional appetite for change, and how modern realities like NIL/transfer portal are reshaping each gig.

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Episode Overview

The panel dives deeply into the job security and expectations for a range of ACC and Big 12 coaches, anchoring their analysis in current Vegas win totals and program context. With witty banter, some notable side tangents, and a heavy dose of insider knowledge, the show spotlights the pressure-cooker environment several high-profile coaches face while acknowledging the shifting sands of college football in the NIL era.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Florida State: Mike Norvell’s Hot Seat (09:03–19:24)

• Vegas Win Total: 7.5 wins for 2025 after a disastrous 2–10 campaign following a 13–1 season.
• Analysis:
  • Bud Elliott notes that FSU’s number is higher than advanced metrics, reflecting belief in regression to the mean. (09:16)
  • Buyout and ongoing capital projects mean there's little appetite to fire Norvell unless things truly collapse. (09:55)
  • The real tension: If FSU doesn't win at least eight games, the seat gets hot for both Norvell and AD Michael Alford. Danny Kanell (an FSU alum) says, “If they don’t get eight wins, you’re going to have former players…getting a little more vocal about the situation in Tallahassee.” (11:10)
  • Advanced warning: Facility investment and transfer spending were headline news but didn’t yield immediate results; FSU must prove it can recruit and retain, not just spend. (14:39)
  • Key schedule points: Beating Miami is highlighted as a must-win to stay on track. (16:21)
  • 10–2 could mean playoff hope—even in a rebuilding year.

"If you don't have good salespeople, you're having to pay top dollar for everybody. Being the highest bidder cannot be the only reason you land recruits." – Bud Elliott (13:19)

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2. Miami: Mario Cristobal’s Leash (19:29–25:04)

• Vegas Win Total: 8.5 (juiced heavily over); the schedule includes tough back-to-backs: Florida, FSU, Louisville. (19:35)
• Analysis:
  • There’s a historical trend for Miami coaches: initial progress, then a backslide, and then a change.
  • Bud and Tom argue Cristobal has backing from deep-pocketed boosters, so he’s safe unless things "absolutely bottom out." (20:03)
  • However, with back-to-back investments in QBs and a new DC, stakes are high. If no playoff or ACC final by year 4, “they would start to turn the heat up just a little bit.” (21:21)
  • Leadership and discipline on offense, especially after key departures, is called a major question. (23:32)
  • Mario's leash is long, but an 8–4 season would raise real questions in 2026.

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3. NC State: Dave Doeren’s Stale Tenure? (27:23–32:03)

• Vegas Win Total: 6.5 (juiced under); entering Doeren’s 12th year. Only Dabo Swinney has been in the ACC longer.
• Analysis:
  • The panel wonders if another 6–6 season might lead to a mutual parting rather than a firing. “Both sides would feel like they've run their course and it's time to move on.” – Tom Fornelli (27:34)
  • Doeren’s weariness with college football changes, and a noted past quip about early retirement (“bail to a bait shop”), add to exit vibes. (30:07)
  • Still, the “good luck finding someone better” counter-argument remains; Doeren is seen as highly competent.

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4. Other ACC Coaches in Focus

• Bill Belichick at UNC
  • The “circus” effect makes further NFL interest seem less likely, and his approach is pitched as a three-year plan with foundational building first. “If North Carolina wants you right now, they don’t think you’re that good.” – Tom Fornelli (36:47)
• Tony Elliott at Virginia
  • Widespread agreement: With a “cakewalk” schedule free of ACC powers, failing to make a bowl means the end. (37:16)
• Brent Pry at Virginia Tech
  • Win total juiced under; staff turnover and missed defensive identity, but a $7M buyout could save him if no president/AD change occurs. (40:00)
• Pat Narduzzi at Pitt
  • Even with 3–9 and 7–6 years, a possibly prohibitive buyout shields him. “I just remember being like, oh, he's not going anywhere for a long while.” – Bud Elliott (42:53)

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5. Big 12 Pressure Cookers

TCU: Sonny Dykes

• Win Total: 6.5; Panel: Rebound to bowl eligibility is enough, but another down year puts Dykes on the 2026 hot seat. (47:55)
• Institutional patience uncertain after decades of Gary Patterson; recent success buys rope, but the “yo-yo” concerns some. TV money and donor spending raise expectations.

Oklahoma State: Mike Gundy

• Win Total: 5.5 (juiced under); After 20+ years, panel debates if Gundy’s ready to “age out” of the new NIL/portal world. Buyout may be a manageable $15M. (50:43)
• Gundy’s deep ties are a shield, but another losing season would mean "heavy you better win mode" in 2026. (52:30)

Texas Tech: Joey McGuire – Under the Most Pressure

• Win Total: 8.5 (juiced heavy under)
• Analysis:
  • Enormous payroll, huge donor investment, and a soft non-conference schedule. “If you pay an upper half SEC payroll in the Big 12 and go 8–4 with this schedule...what do we need you for?” – Bud Elliott (63:16)
  • McGuire is named as the #1 most pressured coach in the Big 12/ACC. Not making the Big 12 title chase with these resources could mean a quick hook.

Baylor: Dave Aranda

• Another under-the-radar possibility if Baylor underperforms, though Tech’s situation is seen as more urgent by comparison. (66:57)

Other Mentions & Notables

• Cincinnati (Scott Satterfield): Must make a bowl in third year to survive.
• Arizona (Brent Brennan): Only in trouble if (almost) winless after two seasons.
• Colorado (Deion Sanders): No hot seat, just the challenge of replacing stars and managing expectations.
• Utah (Kyle Whittingham): Entirely on his own timetable to retire; no external pressure.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On FSU’s attempts at fast fixes:

  “I'm trading, trading Cronenhoak for Castellanos is really like, if an NFL team did that, we would rake them over the coals... you’re just doing everything you can to not get fired this year, but long term, that's a terrible trade.”
  — Bud Elliott (09:42)

• Context on Miami’s infinite patience:

  “Manny [Diaz] was only really gone because the power players there really wanted Mario... and are billionaires.”
  — Bud Elliott (20:56)

• On Mike Gundy’s future:

  “I don’t know if Mike is built for this new era... you put him in the athletic department, some sort of role where he's an ambassador.”
  — Danny Kanell (52:39)

• Regarding Texas Tech’s spending:

  “There’s a strong appetite to see Texas Tech as a perennial playoff contender and they've invested in it.”
  — Danny Kanell (63:54)

• On which ACC/Big 12 coach is under the most pressure:

  “Joey McGuire. That was number one on my list today... I think he's the coach under the most pressure.”
  — Bud Elliott (64:14)

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Important Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment / Topic | |-----------|----------------------------------------------------| | 09:03 | FSU post-collapse, Norvell’s job calculus | | 13:19 | Recruiting challenges in current era | | 19:29 | Miami’s scheduling and Cristobal’s reclamation arc | | 27:23 | NC State, Doeren, and “stale marriage” debate | | 37:16 | Virginia, Tony Elliott—bowl or bust | | 40:00 | Virginia Tech: Brent Pry outlook and buyout | | 42:53 | Pitt’s Pat Narduzzi and the buyout factor | | 47:55 | TCU/Sonny Dykes—expectations and trajectory | | 50:43 | Oklahoma State/Mike Gundy era ending? | | 63:01 | Texas Tech/Joey McGuire highest-stakes situation | | 65:16 | Utah/Kyle Whittingham: job on own terms | | 66:57 | Baylor/Dave Aranda’s job stability |

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Tone & Vibe

• Conversational, playful, insider-y: Hosts trade jokes, reference inside sources, and riff candidly on coaching culture (e.g., Bill Belichick’s beach photos).
• Candid, occasionally irreverent: Rapid-fire, skip-the-spin commentary (“six-win-ass roster”; “oil money at Tech”; “T. Boone ain’t walking through the door”).
• Knowledgeable: Constant reference to buyouts, donor politics, staff changes, and scheduling nuances—providing indispensable background for fans.

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For Those Who Haven’t Listened

This is a deeply informative and entertaining breakdown of the 2025 ACC and Big 12 coaching landscape through the dual lens of preseason Vegas win totals and each program’s historical/political realities. If you’re curious where the “hot seat” truly burns bright in these leagues, this episode offers sharp, grounded, and occasionally spicy takes—peppered with enough humor to keep even neutral fans engaged.

Bottom Line:

• Florida State, Miami, NC State all have coaches under the microscope—each for different reasons.
• In the Big 12, no one faces more pressure to justify investment than Texas Tech’s Joey McGuire.
• Elsewhere, buyouts and institutional inertia insulate most, but “down years” in today’s impatient, NIL-fueled era can accelerate timelines for change.

Memorable Moment:
When the crew agrees on the Texas Tech situation—"you pay like an upper half SEC payroll in the Big 12 and you go 8 and 4 with this schedule...what do we need you for?"—it crystallizes how the arms race in the new college football era has utterly transformed the definition of “job security.”

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Recommended for:
College football diehards, anyone interested in the coach-centric drama of the upcoming season, and those who appreciate lively, informed commentary on the ever-evolving world of CFB.

Transcript

[A]

This episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. A lot of people think podcasts about in depth analysis on college football are boring sometimes, sure. But doing the research and understanding every game gives you the knowledge that you need to make small talk with any sports fan anywhere. It's like banking with PNC Bank. It might seem boring to save, plan and make calculated decisions with your bank, but keeping your money boring is. It's what helps you live a more happily fulfilled life. PNC Bank, Brilliantly boring since 1865 Brilliantly boring since 1865 is a service mark of the PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. PNC Bank national association member FDIC this.

[B]

Episode is brought to you by State Farm. Checking off the boxes on your to do list is a great feeling. And when it comes to checking off coverage, a State Farm agent can help you choose an option that's right for you. Whether you prefer talking in person on the phone or using the award winning app, it's nice knowing you have help finding coverage that best fits your needs. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Welcome Back to the COVID 3 podcast.

[C]

With your hosts, Chip Patterson, Tom Fernelli.

[D]

Danny Cannell and Bud Elliott.

[C]

It's your call for the best college.

[B]

Football coverage from national signing day to the national championship and everything in between.

[C]

CBS Sports presents the COVID 3 podcast.

[A]

And welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fenelli, that's Danny Cannell, that's Bud Elliott. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you [e-mail] cover3 and everywhere you get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe smash that like and come and join us in the chat. AKA the COVID three tail gay. We're Emperor fabulous at 9:49am Eastern time. Jumped up into the tailgate and said guys, guys, guys, how about some love? I'm gonna say this slowly for March Matness. March Matness, the team that put the nasty in dynasty. Penn State wrestling goes for the 12th national championship in 14 tournaments this weekend.

[B]

March Madness 12 in 14 years.

[C]

I like to wrestle.

[A]

That is like I, I, I am, I am. Were y' all aware of March Madness? I'm aware obviously of college wrestling and the like idea that there is a tournament.

[D]

But okay, I knew about Frozen 4. I did not. I've never heard March Madness.

[B]

I have Big ten life. Yeah.

[C]

Remember here in the Midwest we like, we like grappling with each other.

[A]

Just, just like getting in that hot.

[C]

Sweaty man slapping me through the winter.

[B]

Just is now what I got to know like Is there a Buffalo Bills of college wrestling to Penn State's, like, dynasty here? Somebody keeps coming close.

[C]

I'm. I don't know the results. I would assume it's Iowa, because Iowa, typically was the powerhouse for a while. Penn State has kind of taken over, and I'm guessing Iowa's still pretty good.

[B]

At it, though, so we also. Go ahead, Danny.

[D]

I just. I mean, just shout out to our emperor. Fabulous guy. I'll just put a little education on you guys. You guys familiar with Bo Bassett? He was a high school wrestling recruit who was committed to Iowa. Any guesses on his nil deal?

[B]

Oh, yes. I saw this figures.

[D]

5 million to go to Iowa. Yeah, that's the rumored number that's out there for Bo Bassett.

[C]

And why? Because Penn State has won 11 of the last 13 national titles.

[B]

Yeah, I mean, that. Like, that. That's, like the. We're gonna take down the Death Star number, right?

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

We're done dealing here. Yeah. Okay.

[A]

God, he looks.

[D]

I'm sorry. I'm just.

[C]

A lot of ringworm medicine with $7 million.

[D]

He looks like he's 14 and, like, 130 pounds. And he might. He might be 16 and 130 pounds.

[A]

He's tiny.

[D]

It's definitely not a heavyweight.

[C]

Those tiny guys, man, when you watch. Don't. Don't ever think you can beat up a small wrestler. I'll just leave it at that.

[B]

There's a dude on Tick Tock, and I don't have Tick Tock. I mean, I have a Tick Tock, but I don't know my login. Like, AJ Just post the Tik Toks for me because I'm, you know, 40, but, like, so I. Eventually, I see them as they. They make their way to Instagram. But have you seen the guy? Like, he has a sign. It's like, if you take me down, I'll give you a thousand bucks. It's like he's a short, like, kind of jacked wrestler, and these guys like, oh, yeah, I got that.

[A]

And he absolutely pins him on every single time he loses.

[B]

You don't post it, but it. It's. I don't think he's lost much if. If ever. So, yeah, those guys are tough.

[A]

I remember March Madness. I guess it takes me back to the Indianapolis Convention Center, Big Ten Championship Weekend, where all of a sudden, we got to see Indiana and Illinois square off. And the whole Illinois wrestling coaching staff is saying, where's Tom Fornelli? You know, they were just, like, fired up, hoping that they could see Tom. No no, no, Chip, whatever. Like, we don't care about seeing you guys. Where's Tom at? Yeah, that's. That's that big time Big ten wrestling where you get moved all the way to the convention center as part of the festivities.

[C]

I was heading north on I65. Thank you very much.

[A]

We were trying to beat rush hour. Come on now.

[B]

All right. Also, we. We do want to send well wishes to Jeremy in the chat, who's off work dealing with kidney stones today. But on the bright side, I do get to catch you guys live. Never miss an episode. So, Jeremy, we appreciate that and wish you had a better reason to catch us live. But that. That's.

[D]

Yeah. And he needs to recover for the next two work days as well, so then he can just sit up and watch Martin. You can watch us and then follow it up with old March Madness.

[C]

Really convenient time to get kidney stones. Really convenient.

[D]

That would be a serious sacrifice, though.

[A]

He's just been.

[C]

What do you have? Like, what would you have to eat to get kidney stones? He's just been piling on the last month and a half. You gotta get ready for March Madness.

[A]

Speaking of March Madness, it is bracket time, so get yours in now on the CBS Sports app and enter the bracket challenge for the chance to win a new Nissan Armada and trips to 2026 final four. You can also play in men's and women's pools with friends and join our pool. Get the CBS Sports app or visit CBSSports.com/3 to start filling out your brackets. No purchase necessary. See terms and rules for details. We are going to be giving away to the winner of the COVID 3 bracket challenge a year of Paramount plus and maybe even some more goodies for those who finish in the top five. We'll be updating you here on the COVID 3 podcast as well. We look forward to it. It's so easy. CBSSports.com cover 3 takes you right to a bracket. You fill it out, you submit it. You are in our challenge. We appreciate you for doing that. We look forward to competing against you over the course of the next month or so.

[C]

If I win, what do I get? Because I already have Paramount Plus, I.

[A]

Think you gift it.

[C]

What if I don't want to gift it?

[A]

Well, that's selfish. That's not this. That's not. It's not the COVID 3 spirit.

[C]

That's called being a competitor, Chip. You're not just going to give it to you? What? Participation, trophy, bracket, pool? No.

[A]

Okay. All right, well, listen, you know, they'll. They'll let anybody into the tournament. It's what you do when you get into the tournament that that makes it count. Okay. All right. We always enjoy taking a look at this. This is something that our friend Bud Elliott here proposed. And now it's given us a great chance to be able to. To set some objective angles to very subjective conversations, like coach pressure that let's get in to. If Vegas is right with the ACC starting with can we get some Knowles to go? Can we get some nos to go? That's right. We're going to start with Florida State because after going 130 in the regular season, everything's gone downhill. I mean, you. You get blown out in the bowl game, you lose, and you had one good drive, one awesome drive over there in Ireland, then all of a sudden all that goes sideways. We'll always have that drive. Then the whole season ends up sort of going downhill. A 2 in 10. So from 13 and 1 to 2 and 10, Mike Norvell clean's house. New offensive coordinator, new defensive coordinator, More assistant coaches to go along with that as well. Over under win Total at FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can make every moment more is that seven and a half? I mean, Mike Norvell undoubtedly under pressure, but what are the terms of that pressure and what does seven and a half say about the expectations going into 2025?

[B]

So it's interesting. I mean, seven and a half is like one. One and a quarter wins higher than, like, what Bill Connolly has them, like, so that's a pretty, you know, decent difference against what the market has. And I think it probably shows maybe a lack of confidence in some of the teams on this Knoll schedule, like both Virginia schools, you know, Wake Forest, some of those type of schools. And it. I think it shows some belief and expectation that there's like a regression, you know, a positive regression to the mean. Like, a lot of stuff went wrong for them last year. Some of that's probably not fixable. A decent bit is just like, flip a coin again. You're probably not gonna go 2 and 10. They've got, like, a huge buyout here and a lot of capital projects going on, and I really don't think they have any kind of appetite to. To fire Mike Norvell unless, you know, something crazy happens as far as, you know, the win total. I think if you're within, like. I think as long as you make a bowl, Norvell safe for this year. But I do think they're operating in a way that's like, you gotta, like, Win every single year type thing. Like I'm trading, trading Cronenhoak for Castellanos is. Is really like, if an NFL team did that, we would rake them over the Coles. Right? It's like that. Sacrificing your future, that's a young, promising kid and like, you're just doing everything you can to not get fucked fired this year. But, like, long term, that's a terrible trade, right? And you're bringing in an offense that I don't think a lot of really good quarterbacks would want to play in, obviously from Alzan. So it's just, hey, we're trying to save our jobs every year and win. And I think they probably will. You know What? Like probably 6 and 6 to 9 and 3, depending on some health stuff. Like the schedule's fairly top heavy. But I don't think Michael. Mike Alford has any appetite to fire Mike Nobel. The one thing here is that now that you have the conference certainty, that probably gives you a little more flexibility as to what you're going to do, because now at least you're not. The lawsuit stuff's gone.

[D]

If they don't get eight wins, you're going to have former players, probably one of them sitting right here getting a little bit more vocal about the situation in Tallahassee. Right. And it does. And the question did include, what does it say about the state of the program? I think that's a part of why people would be upset, would be like, wait a second, seven wins is supposed to be a victory lap. Like, no, I get it was two wins the year before, but when you go through the schedule and you look through the opponents, there should be eight wins there at minimum. And I think that should be the standard. But we saw a team get two wins last year. We saw players hang up, you know, throw in the towel and quit on Norvell. So I'm. I. But I do agree with Bud that I don't know financially if they have the appetite to make a move. But I do think it does put him squarely in the okay, if we don't get eight the following season, then you're done. That type of conversation that comes out. And I do think, I know we really haven't talked about the ramifications of what it means for athletic directors and all these. But I do think then it puts both Mike Norvell and Michael Alford, you know, squarely in the crosshairs of boosters, fan base, alumni, everyone saying, all right, there's going to have to be. And that would come from the higher up saying, yeah, we need to have this discussion as well.

[B]

Do you think Michael Alford gets to make another football higher at issue? Because I don't. I think if Norvell is gone, he's gone too.

[D]

Yeah, I would. I would tend to agree with that. I think if this goes south and you have to make a change, you probably do them together, then you clean house.

[B]

I agree.

[D]

Yeah.

[C]

Just as a fan, forgetting all the buyout stuff, just how you guys would feel. Say Florida State goes 8 and 4, but the four losses are Alabama, Miami, Clemson and Florida. And they're not particularly competitive. Any of them. How are you feeling then?

[A]

I know that's it's about the expectation.

[B]

Because they don't recruit high school worth a damn like other staffs outwork them. And I think the other staffs have a lot better personalities in terms of actually, like, salesmanship.

[A]

But that's. I. And that still matters. Question mark.

[B]

Yes, it matters, of course, if. If you don't have good salespeople, you're having to pay top dollar for everybody. Because being the highest bidder cannot be the only reason you land recruits. And I think in large part it is.

[A]

Well, thank you for saying that, because I think that there is a mentality among fans that in the modern nil transfer portal world, all you need is a budget, that you could have robots out there and be able to put it together. But I think that in football, especially, just because of how many players you need to be able to be competitive to win at a high level, you still probably need those traditional recruiting tactics and traditional recruiting skills in a way that might not be the case in basketball or some other sports.

[B]

Right. I think the point about the. The eight wins is, like, who are the eight if those are losses? I mean it. You don't have a single win over a team that any FSU fan cares about. Right.

[D]

But your point, Chip about the highest bidder stuff. And then it's just transactional and you have a bunch of robots. You know what happens when you do that? You have players throwing the towel after. You're not like, you're hired. You know, your job is to make an ACC title and make a postseason run. Once you fall short of that, guess what you do? You start going through the motions because there is no emotional attachment either to the coaching staff or to the school you're playing for. So it's human nature. Be like, all right. And then it becomes like, the NFL, just give me my check, I'm out of here in a year. Anyway.

[A]

Yeah. 2024 off season, the headline was Florida State spending big. Florida State having a transfer portal class that is highly rated. You know, and that same group just did not play out. I mean, like, bud, do you. I'm not going to ask you to if you, you want to keep state secret. State secret. But like, do you know what kind of budget Florida State was playing with? Like, if we've now sort of laid it all on the table and we know where Miami and Texas and Ohio State were, you know, at one end of the table, if we know at the other end, what like your 4 million, 5 million, you know, sort of the lower end of some of these power conferences. Do you know where Florida State fell last year?

[B]

Yeah, they weren't in that like top five range. I think they were in that like six to 15 range. Okay, I, I don't like, they were not at 20 from like, best of my knowledge, but I think last year's transfer portal class was weird because they tried to thread the needle of like really high upside guys who weren't proven. But they also needed those guys to play right away because they don't recruit high school at the level you would expect Florida State to. So you got to bring in these transfers and have them play right away. And some of these dudes, like, I was talking to people over there and they're like, hey, I don't know why everybody writes off all this transfer class we took. Like, some of these guys were not good last year, but they do have some long term upside. Like, well, for the purpose taken, it makes 100 sense to write them off, right? Because you actually needed them to play, but you also needed to be high upside guys. But like, I guess in theory they could be right that like, the high upside is still potentially unlockable. Now some of those dudes I got like no hopes for, but maybe, maybe some of like they're hyping Earl Little again. Do I buy that? Not really, but I'm open to seeing it. Like, they're, they're putting their name on it. So I, I guess like that's a guy to go watch.

[D]

I think the game you kind of, you want to get, you have. I don't say have to get. The game that's gettable is the Miami game at home. You know, like, that's one that for Florida State fans, it's early enough in the season. If you don't get Bama, you should be 3 and 1. You've still kind of got momentum. The place should be loud. You've got home field. I think that's one that could kind of determine the, you know, six to nine win range. Like you're talking about, bud, if they.

[A]

Get Miami and then if they go to Gainesville and get Florida extension. I mean if, if Florida State is 10 and 2, do they make the playoff.

[B]

With Bam on the schedule? Yes.

[C]

Yeah. Because that means they'd have two wins over either Alabama, Clemson, Florida, or.

[A]

I'm saying they lose.

[D]

What if Bama's 9 and 3 though? Yeah.

[B]

And it does depend on what Florida is like.

[D]

If Florida is 6 and 6, their win totals right around or like 5.

[B]

And 7 and they've quit on Billy because they realize he's finally getting fired. Like then 10 and 2.

[C]

I would imagine in a 12 team field, 10 and 2 is good enough to get them in.

[A]

It was funny because if you've been paying attention [e-mail] over on the college football side, we are still writing things. I know that it can be easy to get just sort of taken over by the March Madness. And our series this week is every single conference someone names the five teams that are the top contenders for the College Football Playoff. I had to write the acc and boys, it was tough. You know how hard it is to find five real contenders for the. From the College Football Playoff. From the Atlantic Coast Conference. There's only four teams that have win totals higher than seven and a half. Like, and we're talking about from the ACC. You've got to be 10 and 2, 11 and 1 to be able to have a shot, to be able to be in the mix for an at large bid. Shout out to you, Garrett. Yes, I, I do read from time to time, but I included Florida State as my fifth. I, I was like, okay, so do you want to play the game? Who, who would your five be?

[C]

Miami, Clemson, Florida State, smu.

[D]

Bell. Six rings. Six rings. Bill Belichick.

[A]

Louisville. Not six rings. Bill Belichick. I, but I had, I went through and it was basically Clemson, Miami, Easy, Louisville. SMU felt like the next tier. And I was just looking, but literally looking between teams that all had win totals of seven and a half. Which one of these teams actually has the potential? And the one thing that I said for Florida State is like, look, it's that schedule. If they do rise up and take down one of those teams, that's going to be the kind of thing that could help you in a, in a college football playoff conversation. I find it highly unlikely that Florida state goes from 2 and 10 to 10 and 2, we. We really don't see those kind of turnarounds often, but it's also seemed highly unlikely you'd go from 13 and 1 to 2 and 10. So that's kind of the fire that you're playing with with the Seminoles.

[C]

All right.

[A]

Anything else on Florida State?

[B]

No.

[A]

What's the pressure look like for Miami? Mario Cristobal win totals at eight and a half.

[B]

It's juice over like crazy, right? Correct.

[A]

Minus 188.

[B]

I mean, this schedule is. It's not that bad if you go 8 and 4. Like, he's totally fine. I. I think. I think he's fine for a long time there.

[A]

I think he is.

[D]

The.

[C]

The concern for me on this schedule is that you get Florida, Florida State and Louisville all consecutively.

[A]

Like, it's backloaded. Right.

[B]

And they're early. Yeah.

[A]

Or no, maybe somebody else has got it backloaded. Okay.

[C]

So it's like that's. That's even with a buy or whatever in between that, that's still kind of a tough run of three really big games for you in the league. And then obviously, the Florida rivalry game. But, like, getting Florida and Florida State back to back is. That's tough. But just. I. I don't think Mario's in any trouble as long as the floor doesn't absolutely bottom out. But I will point out this trend with Miami and their coaches. Mark Rick gets hired, goes nine wins in his first season, 10 wins in his second season, backslides for the first time to seven wins gone. In comes Manny Diaz. Six wins, eight wins, backslides to seven wins gone. Mario comes in five wins, seven wins, 10 wins. If he backslides to eight wins, I don't think he's gone, but history suggests he might be.

[B]

Yeah, but Manny was only really gone because the. The power players there, like, really wanted Mario had, like, a close personal relationship with Mario, like, from high school, and are billionaires. So I think that there's a lot of ego at stake for those guys as well. It's like they were the one that pushed Manny out. Manny's now doing really well at Duke. I mean, it's. It's Duke, so it can be total up and down, but I think he's got a lot. A lot of Runway, man.

[C]

But if you're. If you finish year four in the last two years, you spent big money on Cam Ward, and then you spent big money on Carson Beck. You've brought in a new defensive coordinator. You brought in a lot of new players on the defensive side of the Ball, you've put a lot of money into this program and if you haven't won the ACC or at least gotten to the playoff after four seasons, you don't think they would start to turn up the heat just a little bit?

[B]

I think they, there would be some, hey, man, like, what are we doing here? You know, and, and the point about the schedule is so well made. I mean, you're blowing your first two bye weeks before Halloween. And then, I mean your, your host Stanford shouldn't lose that. Right? You're at smu. Host Q host NC State, at vatech, at Pitt. I'm gonna tell you from like the perspective of a player in South Florida, you're going into all those games thinking like you're better than those teams and athletically you probably are. But that with no buys, that is a lot of, of time to have a slip up for sure.

[A]

A slip up? Like cheating on your girlfriend slip up.

[B]

Wow.

[C]

Listen, I'm pulling for Carson and Hannah. I think those two kids, they can get it together. You know, just let's, let's just trust your family.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

Did you get the cars back?

[D]

That's a good question. I don't think they did. They got one or two of them back. They didn't get all three. But we are talking about a series of bad choices.

[A]

Yes.

[D]

I mean that to me and I. You got. You guys can think I'm kidding or not. I do think that does bleed over into your play as a quarterback. Like, you got. You have to be smart to be a quarterback. You have to have a high football iq, but you also just have to have a smart iq and you can't. This is multiple times that he's been burned from just snapping whatever. Do you not realize they can either screen grab it or they can take pictures of it with another phone that it's you.

[C]

The point of making mistakes is you're supposed to learn from them. And when you make mistakes and you don't learn from them and you keep making the same mistakes, I'm with you, Danny. Think it's a red flag.

[B]

My Miami guy was like, offensive leadership for this team is going to be one of the major questions. I was like, so back. He's like, well, clearly, yeah, but also like losing Restrepo, losing Arroyo. Some of those guys, they cared, they played hard. Like they, they held other, other folks accountable. So we'll see how that, how that looks. But they should be a whole lot better on defense.

[A]

I mean, I, I think that there is. Will Miami fans start to grumble if this is an 8 and 4 type season. Absolutely.

[C]

Tweets.

[B]

Yes, of course.

[A]

Internet fans are not the ones who make the decisions on the future of.

[D]

A head coaches coming to this goes to like the same thing we're talking about with Florida State and they're not coming off a two win season like they put all this money in there. They're 8 and 4. I think there's frustration. I don't, again, I don't think they're making a change. I think he has a really, really long leash because of some of the ties, the investment in him and the belief in him. But if you're 8 and 4, it is kind of a. They're going to be some hard conversations going into the next season.

[C]

If they lose four games, you have to assume one of them is the Notre Dame opener.

[A]

Right.

[C]

And then the other three, SMU on the road, that that is a team. I don't know, it's just, it's hard to say because Miami was a team that nearly lost a bunch of games last year that it shouldn't have and then eventually did. So it's like if they, if they're anything like last year's team we've seen, they tend to play to their opponent.

[A]

I mean they had a 21 nothing lead in the final game of the regular season. Win and you're into the ACC championship, make the ACC championship and you might, you're probably at worst an at large pick for the College Football Playoff and they let it slide. Now, it wasn't, you know, all one thing. A lot of things went wrong in that game and a lot of things went right for Syracuse. But you know, that's, don't, don't let that be the familiar thread for, for Mario Cristobal moving forward. Something, something to keep an eye on for sure. Coming up on the other side, we continue our conversation rounding out the acc. And then we take a look. One of the longest tenured coaches in the Big 12 with a startling win total and much more from that conference. Next.

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[A]

Offers back here on the COVID 3 podcast. Look there's a. There's a lot we can grab from from the rest of the Atlantic Coast Conference. I've got a couple, you know, open things up here to the group as well. I'll I'll go ahead and start with all Politics is local NC State over under six and a half juiced under does six and six create some real consternation around NC State football?

[C]

This will be his 10th or 11th.

[D]

Year or 12th, 12th I think.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Yeah. Only Dabo has been at his position longer than Dave Doran.

[B]

Damn.

[C]

So like he's only had two seat or three seasons with six wins or fewer. One of them was last year. One of them was his first year. So I don't know. Like I, I do wonder if they finished 6 and 6 and you guys will have a better read on this. But I don't know if it'd be like the school looking to fire him. But there could be like maybe both sides would feel like they've run their course and it's time to move on.

[B]

Yeah. Especially because of the order in which these six come. Right. Your schedule starts out so easy. I mean you're East Carolina host Virginia at Wake at Duke. If you're an NC State fan, you're like we better be 40 to start. Unless you think Duke's for real and like has some which maybe they will be. I. I don't know. But you're not like Wake's not an okay loss I think at this point in time if you're an NC State fan. But then like down the stretch if you like, let's say they do go six and six Awake team that by.

[A]

The way beat you last year. A Duke team that by the way beat you last year. Both of those games at home. The tenor around the the y' all know NC State fans, they love their home games. They love Carter Finley Stadium. This NC State team let them down against Wake, Duke and Syracuse with like fourth quarter collapses.

[B]

It was wild. You probably start four and one and then finish five and six down the stretch. Or maybe you start three and two, you know, and. And finish, like, with four. Law. That's tough. Like, the. The final stretch here is you get Campbell, then you're at the Irish, at Pitt, host Georgia Tech at Miami, host fsu, host Uncle Man.

[D]

I'd be like, good luck going to find somebody better. I like Dave Doran a lot as a coach. I think he maximized the talent he's been given. But kind of like Tom said, I wonder if there's, you know, some people, maybe both sides just say this is getting a little stale. You know, like, Marty Schottenheimer had, like, a philosophy that he was only going to stay in one place for 10 years. It'd be a pretty good luxury to be like, yeah, I'm that good where I'm going to be in one place for 10 years. But kind of like the messaging gets old, it gets stale. And that would be the only reason I would say that both sides be like, you know what?

[B]

You're right.

[D]

Change of scenery is kind of needed. Kind of infuse some life into everything. But again, I would say, good luck finding somebody better.

[A]

There's a. Where is it? One time, one. This was several years ago, he mentioned that he wouldn't mind retiring early and going off to work at a bait shop. That Dave Doran, who loves to fish, was like, you know, I don't really need all this. You know, I've been doing this a while, made some good money. And that quote was several years ago. And the college football world has changed. But it's echoed, you know, as people start to talk about, you know, Dave Doran's future and sort of what he would want out of. Out of this. He certainly seems very sort of grumpy and dissatisfied with a lot of the. The ways that the game is changing and. And sort of the position that he's put in. Some of that comes from just being, you know, just being in that position for a while. He probably feels emboldened, like he doesn't owe anybody anything based on the success that he's had. But I've. I think that this is a really important year for. If Dave Doran wants to run, let's say, four more years with the Wolf Pack, you got to have C.J. bailey play well. You made a decision to move on from Robert and I. You promote Kurt Roper like that. That offense has some real weapons defensively. They kind of lost their identity last year. How is that going to end up being Shored up, because I'm. I'm not sure that I've got the exact answers for that right now. From a personnel standpoint, It's. You know, they just. They are awaiting to announce their. Their next men's basketball coach. You know, everybody's getting all hot and bothered. Maybe they do end up coming looking to make a change at football, too, but it's going under. This win total, I think, would at least bring up a lot of the conversations that started to get a little bit noisy before he beat North Carolina in the finale. All right, open table. Where we want to go.

[B]

I think. Well, I want to ask you, like, there's no hot seat for Bill Belichick, but if they go seven and five.

[A]

Hold on. Sorry. Bill Belichick. Bill Belichick. Jordan Hudson. Bill Belichick. Girlfriend. Bill Belichick. Spring break girlfriend. Pose. Okay, go.

[C]

Wait, did you say pose or pose?

[B]

I'm sure.

[C]

Oh, okay. I thought you said something else.

[D]

My wife and I were gonna reenact. We were at the beach, and I showed her. I was like, we need to reenact these photos.

[C]

Do it.

[D]

And then we figured out we probably couldn't do it successfully.

[A]

Well, I mean, shout out to his leg strength.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, exactly.

[A]

To get that photo shot, you got to hold that position for a while.

[C]

Who took the photo?

[D]

It looked like a selfie setup. Like, you know, she's definitely. She's good at social media, I think.

[B]

Like, she's got a tripod.

[A]

He definitely keeps a tripod in the beach.

[B]

Yeah. Okay. I think you also got to make sure, like, you're on the right incline of the beach. Like that. Like that. That's. That's.

[D]

Every angle was great. Like, she definitely. There was good angles.

[C]

How many takes did it take? Like, you know, they messed up once.

[A]

No, you set the timer, and it goes flash, flash, flash, flash, flash. She picked the best one.

[D]

Can you imagine this photo shoot? Gosh, I would love to be like, a fly on the wall just to see, because I know, like, with my wife, like, we were in the Keys, and, like, let's get a picture.

[A]

Oh.

[D]

And then you don't. You have to get the different lighting or the different angles, like, to, like, how many different takes did it take? Was he, like, sure, hon. Whatever. Was he getting annoyed? Like, because it's hard to envision him not getting annoyed.

[B]

There has to be, like, an incredible commercial opportunity for her taking him shopping in, like, when he looks homeless, and then, like, she's actually, like, buying him some new clothes from, like, whether it's Kohl's or Menswear, whoever wants to sponsor it. Like, I mean, that. That thing would do numbers.

[A]

She made the super bowl ad.

[B]

Yeah, well, yeah.

[A]

I mean, like, I mean, we're all.

[C]

Affleck made.

[B]

That's kind of a hard launch.

[A]

No, but she made the. Yeah, she made the cut for a Duncan super bowl ad. That's a. We. We could absolutely land some Kohl's cash here. Right here for. For Bill Belichick. Yeah. So North Carolina. This is what's interesting. North Carolina's win total is seven and a half, which is probably fair for the team and probably not fair for the salary that you're paying your head coach.

[C]

I mean, here's the thing. If they. If they go over, is he still at North Carolina the year after? Like, is it better for North Carolina that he goes under or over? Because if he goes over, NFL team might come sniffing around.

[A]

I've become less inclined to think that the NFL is frothing at the mouth for more Bill Belichick. And the more that this has become a circus, the less inclined an owner might be to bring the circus to town.

[D]

The Giants did let Day Ball go one more year with Joe Shane. Fit falls off the rails. See a clean house history there.

[C]

May have won a Super Bowl.

[B]

I don't know.

[C]

Hates the Jets. I don't know.

[A]

Chip, what do y' all think?

[C]

He's not.

[D]

The only thing I think that could happen is he goes like.

[B]

Like.

[D]

I agree with Tom. If he goes over, I think that's the only thing you're nervous about. Even if it falls off the rails, go four and eight. I think it's an adaptation year. He's getting used to the college game. You know, they'll address it. They're still getting the roster straightened out. There'll be people that are upset again with that 10 million bucks. It's way short of it, but nobody's part. And what do you think? I mean, do you think that he would say, this isn't for me, you know, his legacy? He's not going out like that.

[A]

No. And the way that. The way that his megaphone. David Lombardi. Who. Like, y' all remember when Michael Lombardi. Michael Lombardi. Yeah. Not David.

[C]

David Lombardi's like, I look alike to you? Don't they, Chip?

[A]

All those Lombardies. Yeah. David Lombardi's old Pac 12 reporter. Right. He covered Stanford and now believe so. So Michael Lombardi, the way that he has talked about the roster construction certainly indicates that the guys they are targeting now are going to be the, the grunt guys and then next year they go out to like add some, add some talent. So they are looking for the Holy Cross center. They are looking for the former lacrosse player. They are looking for like culture tone setters from Navy to be able to come in. And then that is a three year plan. That is not a plan of like we're going to win 10 games next year. So I'm going to take their lead and I'm going to say it's more of a three year plan.

[C]

You hear that kids? If North Carolina wants you right now, they don't think you're that good.

[A]

If they want you for the 2025.

[C]

Season, they just, you're a body, you're filling a hole.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Get the real players next year.

[A]

Yeah, I mean look, they're going, they're going after a couple blue chips in 26, but yeah, no 25. You're just, you're out there to do the hard work to, to lay the foundation for two hots and a cut for you.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

But you mentioned Brent Pride, Tony Elliott. Well, these are low win totals, man. It's kind of sad.

[B]

Like I, I thought David Hale on Twitter, they had an excellent point about just like how cakewalk of a schedule UVA has. And I obviously like, like you, you had to tread lightly because the shooting that they had there when Tony took over, like that's an extremely hard situation to deal with. But I, I do think if, like if you don't make a bowl game this year, they, that may be, that may be the end of the line there. I mean there's their non con is Coastal William and Mary and Washington State and there was no Clemson, no Clemson on the schedule, no Miami on the schedule, no SMU on the schedule. So yeah, if you don't make a bowl, I, I think that's probably all she wrote on the Tony Elliott experience there. I had, if I had to guess, Brent Pry on the other hand, I mean six and a half juice under. They kept a lot of their guys last year. It didn't work. Had some coaching changes. Now they lost some, some, you know, people that other schools are real happy to have now. I man, like if Vegas is right, you go six and six. Does he get another year? And if so, why is it the buyout? Like they give one of those crazy extensions for no reason.

[A]

Does the hire of Philip Montgomery inspire you?

[C]

No, not really.

[B]

Given how long that took for both coordinator searches, I would say no.

[A]

Because like Virginia Tech will be like, hey, remember Robert Griffin, remember Bryce Petty, Remember Case Keenum? That's what Kyron Drones can do. I mean, we are reaching way back into the way back machine to try to like put the pieces together when the game of football has changed in a lot of ways. And Kyron Drones does have like a very, very high ceiling. It's Tom's boy right there.

[C]

Yes.

[A]

But it's, it's going to be really, really tough for Virginia Tech to be able to take a big step forward. Can they go over this total? Yes. Yeah, I think that if they go under, then yeah, coaching change is probably in place because this is a group that should have won more games last year. And that's not just because the officiating super center all had on orange Hialeah shirts as they were looking at the beginning, the end of Miami, Virginia Tech, I mean, it is because they could not close. There was some, some coaching mismanagement in my opinion, which is going to inspire maybe why you go and make that change. But Hokies, Hokies should have been a win, if not win and a half or two wins better than they were last year.

[B]

Patrick in the chat does bring an interesting point. And the buyout here is only 7 million for Pride, which is pretty doable for almost any power for school, I think. But Patrick says Pry is not in any danger until the university president resigns. The AD won't fire him. The president doesn't want to hire a new ad. And this would be Babcock, the AD there, his third football hire, which typically you don't get to make. So maybe that saves them if they go 6 and 6, but it'd be better just to go 7 and 5. Yeah.

[A]

Does anybody know who is competing for the starting quarterback at Virginia?

[C]

It's not Anthony Calandria.

[B]

Yes, it's. It's Musket.

[D]

Still there.

[B]

No, no.

[C]

Oh God.

[B]

It's North Texas kid.

[A]

Yeah.

[D]

Chandler Morris.

[A]

Yeah.

[D]

Wait, wait, it is.

[A]

Yeah, yeah. Fourth school. Chandler Morris.

[B]

I knew it was. Yeah, I knew something.

[D]

Wow.

[A]

Yeah, this, this will be played pretty.

[D]

Good at North Texas until the army game when he had a couple picks that cost me a bet this past season.

[A]

This will be, this will be his fourth school in five years. He started at Oklahoma, spent three seasons at tcu, was the starter at North Texas. As you just mentioned, he threw 31 touchdowns, 3,700 yards. He is likely going to be the starter. He is being pushed by Nebraska transfer Daniel Kalin, who was a third stringer last year for the Cornhuskers but never played and Red shirted. So yeah, Chandler Morris a. This is not the conference of quarterbacks. Like at media days they're going to trot out all this awesome list. But going through and looking at the quarterbacks in the Atlantic Coast Conference does have a lot of like where he's still in the league kind of moments, you know, for, for a lot of these guys.

[C]

I have, I have one more ACC coach. Like I think Wilcox is safe at Cal, although who knows? I think Taylor would probably be safe at Stanford just because I think those two schools would get some leeway because of the move to the ACC. But Pitts win totals at 5 1/2 if the Panthers go 5 and 7. Is Narduzzi in any kind of trouble? Because this is kind of not that dissimilar to the Doran situation where he's been there for a long time. But the last couple years things have not really lived up to the expectation. Like they begin they were ranked at a time last season, then they finished 7 and 6. They went 3 and 9 the year before. If they go 5 and 7 after 7 and 6 and 3 and 9, I do wonder if there'd be some rumbling.

[A]

I. Bud, you're normally buds the buyout king here, but I've heard that this might be a prohibitive financial situation for, for our guy Pat Narduzzi or a great financial situation if we're friends with Pat Narduzzi and, you know, excited for his future.

[B]

Yeah. I don't have this written down because it's not public, but I, I think that Pete Thamel dropped the nugget one time that it. And I was like, wait, what? It's. I just remember being like, oh, he's not going anywhere for a long while. Yeah.

[D]

So I mean they did after that ACC contract. I mean not ACC contract. ACC championship with Kenny Pickett was not that long ago. He probably got, you know, just.

[C]

I want to point this out.

[D]

It's pit.

[B]

I. I think our dudes is a good coach, man. Like, I don't think they have like real. I don't know, maybe I'm wrong on this first resources wise.

[D]

But it's pit also too with the Rev share. Do they start, you know, do people say let's give him another year to see if this starts. Parody starts leveling out?

[C]

I mean he's very much missing the point here.

[A]

What, the volleyball arena?

[C]

Yeah. Florida State and Clemson just sued the league because these damn schools aren't spending money on football. But Pitt's spending 300 million on a volleyball arena.

[D]

Oh, they're perennial contenders, final four, last couple years.

[C]

Like what is going to be in this arena? Like all you need is a court to net and like 2000 seats.

[B]

SEC Network. Last night I, I, I was, I was watching on tv they, they were showing like track and I know that's like low cost to produce, but also I'm like, man, nobody's watching this, right? Like at some point when these go club, I don't know.

[A]

They were counter programming true tv all right, because they knew all of America was watching true tv. And by the way, I found out last night, true TVs got eastbound and Down. You know how awesome that was to go from the end of the first four to the pilot powers on a jet ski.

[B]

TV has some bangers. Like, like when you're doing like work, travel, like you go, like you go in the hotel. If you don't like do the Netflix login, you just flip it on. It's almost one like, like the first kind of scroll ups in, in like the Marriott list, you know, like, oh, which forensic files is this? You kind of play the game. It's like, like how long can you watch before you remember what it was and you change? You know?

[A]

Anybody else in the ACC we want to take a look at before we go to the Big 12? All right, coming up on the other side, the Big 12 loaded up with some established coaches, a coach that made it all the way to the national championship game and so much more. We'll take a look at the win totals and the pressure next. Labor Day savings are happening right now at the Home Depot.

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Games on YouTube TV. NFL Sunday Ticket for auto market games, excludes digital only games and commercial use terms and embargoes Apply availability varies. Jackson in the tailgate. What was Bud's bet on? SEC track. We're doing, we're doing over unders on. Over unders on meat times. You know, maybe.

[B]

I don't, I don't think you can bet that, but I. It was like, it was like high jump, by the way.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

None of them were getting it, so.

[C]

I just kept betting under and under and under.

[A]

It was, it was like, it was like the Georgia Florida State Orange bowl all over again. Go, go, go. All right. A couple years ago, we were on an absolute ride with tcu. Thrilling finish after thrilling finish all the way to the national championship game where it got so sideways, Georgia players were picking wings out of the floor level boxes and just eating sideways stadium food on the sideline. TCU had a little bit of a step, a big step back in 2023, but then had a nice close to 2024. Made the season certainly look a lot better than it felt at the middle of the year. Josh Hoover a very promising quarterback. So for the Horn frogs now in 2025, over, under win total set at six and a half. Sonny Dykes certainly staved off any hot seat talk with the way that TCU turned their season around last year. But is six and a half acceptable for. For TCU moving forward.

[D]

For another year?

[B]

Yeah, I think.

[D]

Gotta be right. Like, I think it's one of those. I mean, you still get, you still have the national championship season. But I think where it gets uncomfortable is the fact of what Brett Lashley's doing at smu, what Texas is doing, making, you know, repeated runs to the final four. I don't think that helps his situation at all, but I think it adds a little bit of complexity to it. But I think it's six and six. I think he's fine, but I think he would enter the following season on the hot seat.

[C]

Yeah, I would think that it's somewhat hard to get a read on TCU simply because Gary Patterson was there for 20 years. So you don't really know how quick of a trigger they have. But I will say, like Patterson had all those double digit win seasons until 2017, then 2018. Seven wins, five wins, six wins. And then it was in that fourth season where they pulled the trigger and they moved on. Sonny shows up, goes right to the playoff. 5 and 7, 9, 4 last year. I think it would probably unsettle some people if f. If it like the yo yo keeps coming back, like up, down, up, down, up, down. I think that could probably bother some people. So if they're only hovering around that win total, maybe. But again it's, it's difficult to know. But it's also now we're in a situation where TCU's in the Big 12. You can spend money on players. Maybe some boosters will feel like they've got to have a quicker, you know, they've got, they should be better than they are in the current landscape. So I don't know. I, I think he'd get one more year unless it's a terrible season. But I think there's more. I think the door is slightly open.

[B]

He also got a good extension in December of 22 after he took him to the national championship game. So my guess here is like that that buy off's not gonna be cheap, I think.

[A]

But again, I am going to assume that TCU has the. I'm going to assume that TCU has the ability to pass the hat and get that job done faster than a lot of schools that we've been talking about here in the show.

[B]

That's probably fair. Yeah.

[A]

Among Big 12 and ACC schools especially. All right, what about this one? Oh, I Oklahoma state over under five and a half and heavy juiced under minus 188. I mean that is the odds makers telling you that this is, this is a 5 and 7 ass roster with a 5 schedule. I mean and for all of the success that Mike Gundy has had, even getting Oklahoma State to the Big 12 title game just a couple seasons ago, you know, this is, this has started to really get a little sideways on the Cowboys. So is there pressure there as he won so much that he gets to go out on his terms? Is there a desire to move on from Mike Gundy? I this, this is probably one of the most interesting ones in the conference to me.

[B]

I mean they were one of the favorites to win the conference last year and, and really fell flat in their face. I think the buyout is 25 or so. So. But he had a restructuring of the contract so I don't know what it actually dropped the buyout to looks oh, 15. I mean that's kind of doable I think right. For a power like that's not so insane now that you couldn't pay 15. But like, I mean they play Oregon in the non con. Tulsa and UT Martin are automatics. You do host Houston, you host Cincinnati, you're at ucf. You should be favored in those games, I think. But like are you favorite at Kansas? Are you favored at Texas Tech? You host Kansas State, you host Iowa State, you're at Arizona, so probably favored there.

[A]

Arizona, off the top of my head. Snap call. I had all those AS losses, all the, all those games you just mentioned in a row.

[B]

And you host Baylor and Baylor presumably will have its act together early given that Robertson and the OC came back and didn't go to Oklahoma. So, I mean, this, this is going.

[C]

To be his 21st season. Yeah, they went three and nine. Last year was an awful season, but the year before they won 10 games. They've had backslide seasons, though, not to the level that they had last year. And they've bounced back. I think if they get to a bowl game, he's 100% safe. If they don't, I think, well, A, we have to consider what does Mike say or do during the season. Yeah, that could lead to some problems, but B, I think they would give him another season, but he would probably enter 20, 26 in a very heavy, you better win mode.

[A]

And does he want that?

[C]

I. I think I. I don't know if. I don't know if Mike is built for this new era.

[D]

That's what I wonder about, if he's one of the guys who comes out and like, this is enough. I've had enough dealing with today's player. You put him in the, you know, athletic department in some sort of role where he's an ambassador. So he's not doing nothing. He's still. Because he's a lifer, you know, I mean, the school means a ton to him. I don't think anybody wants to see him get fired. He doesn't want to get fired. So you kind of transition to some other role. That would probably be a scenario I could see unfolding. Remember this last year, I mean, it was the retirement talk was on the table. They asked him. He's like, my wife will never let me retire. You know, she wants. She want me around the house, you know, like. But I do think. I don't see him coach anywhere else.

[A]

No.

[D]

You know, so I think his agent.

[C]

Wanted you to think he'd be coaching somewhere else. Plenty of times, yeah.

[A]

Yeah. Tennessee. The number, number of times that Mike Gundy made a short list, you know.

[D]

Plus I was trying to find out. So as his sons. Does he have everybody off the roster now? Like, he had the quarterback son who was there.

[A]

Gunner is back on staff, I believe. But I don't think that we are. I don't think we. We've got a Gundy. I don't know if we've got a Gundy, like playing Right now, reworked the offensive staff. Remember, for the first time in a long time, that was a really big deal, man. We'll. We'll see right there. A lot of comments in the tailgate referencing T. Boon RIP and it's. They were saying, like, T. Boon ain't walking through the door to pay that buyout. My counter, and I'm probably talking a little bit out of turn here, is that maybe T. Boon might have protected you. Right. Just because of that relationship. And sort of like, how, though, how coach and booster benefactor both sort of like, saw that thing over the last couple decades be able to rise together. But TBD on. On that Oklahoma State definitely an interesting one to keep an eye on. All right, let's see. Scott Satterfield in trouble if Cincinnati ends up 6 and 6 or 7 and 5.

[B]

I don't think so at that number. I think if you miss a bowl. Yes. I think if you make a bowl, you're okay. Okay.

[C]

I mean, it's his third year. You haven't been to a bowl yet. So I do think if you get to a bowl, it's like, well, you've shown growth and progress. It'd be hard to fire him. Unless, like some. Unless like, Luke Fickle gets let go at Wisconsin, is like, hey, I'm willing to come back.

[B]

Yeah. I don't think the nil support there is great. I mean, they definitely lost some guys in the portal. I mean, non con. You get Nebraska, Bowling Green, Northwestern States. That's probably two and one.

[A]

I don't know. Eddie George is coming for that ass.

[B]

That Bowling Green staff wasn't bad, though. Like.

[A]

Yeah. I don't know.

[B]

I mean, that's. I don't. I don't think Eddie George is an upgrade over what Leffler had going there. Like, in a vacuum, maybe. But I. I don't know. They weren't bad bg, like left or just wanted to get out.

[A]

Right. Right.

[B]

So as far as, like, your potential bottom of the league stuff here, you get potentially Houston or. No, you don't get Houston. Right. You do get.

[A]

Hey, my pushback is that I don't think Houston's an easy W. No.

[B]

I mean, Fritz can coach and. And they should be improved. You get UCF at home. Like UCF's. UCS very possibly the worst team in the Big 12 this year.

[A]

I think it's an Arizona UCF debate.

[B]

I think so, too. But again, everybody in the Big 12, for the most part, I think, is potentially the worst team in the Big 12 or the best team in the Big 12, like the difference between these teams is very small. At least you know, from the outset. Now they'll, there'll be some divergence there as goes sideways.

[C]

But.

[B]

Man, if you go seven, five or six, six against this schedule, I think you take that. That's not that bad. Like, that's not that bad. Not like you're not spending. Like you have expectations.

[A]

I just mentioned Arizona. They're over under win totals at five and a half. I mean, I think there was a. I know that we don't have like, necessarily robust Arizona football booster communities. I've got a friend who's a season ticket holder and you know, he can only tell me what it was like in his section, but he, he just seemed like very, very. Oh, no, we made a huge mistake. And that stinks because Brent Brennan did a good job at San Jose State. What does his future look like with a win total that suggests we're flirting with bowl eligibility?

[B]

Is Arizona a fire guy after two seasons? Type of.

[C]

I don't think so.

[D]

Wasn't he cheap, though? I want to say his deal was not that prohibitive.

[A]

Like they could have moved on after one year.

[D]

Yeah, yeah.

[C]

I think unless they're like winless, he's getting a third season.

[B]

I, I do too. Okay.

[A]

Someone's got to take the losses in this conference.

[C]

Yeah, but everybody's going to get at least four wins at the same time. That's just the nature of the league.

[A]

After finishing tied for first place in the Big 12 standings, Colorado enters 2025 without Shador Sanders, without Travis Hunter, with a win total of six and a half.

[C]

That man's not in the hot seat.

[A]

I didn't say hot seat. We're just asking what, the pressure Just taking the temperature?

[C]

No.

[B]

Who's applying any pressure tonight?

[C]

Nobody.

[B]

Himself. Fire himself.

[C]

What's he going to do?

[A]

Just, Just talking about job pressure. You know, the six and a half seem right.

[D]

Yeah, yeah.

[C]

They lose. They lost two pretty decent players.

[A]

Oh, I was saying six and a half could be on the high end.

[C]

It could prove to be like hype. Could be pumping that up a little bit. But I think six and a half is fair for this league and the talent that'll be on that team.

[D]

What if he sails over it?

[C]

Oh, my gosh, look out Alabama. You got a new coach.

[B]

I mean, he could like the, the non con is pretty manageable. Georgia Tech, Delaware, Wyoming, you, You start at Houston, which is probably still a bottom half team in the league. Get West Virginia, you get Arizona, you don't get ucf, but I mean, the schedule is very friendly.

[A]

Do you know what. What narrative I think I'm. I'm coming around on what if Warren Sapp makes Colorado's defensive line great? Have you all seen his, like, press availability during spring practice?

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

Places Mario at Miami.

[B]

He's fired up.

[A]

That's what I'm saying. He's. He's dialed like that. Like that is somebody who is very focused on the assignment at hand, of trying to improve the play and the performance of this Colorado defensive line. And for a legitimate hall of Famer to not just be looking at this as, you know, something. Something easy or just something to do to stay busy, it. It is very simply just a narrative I'm rooting for. You know, Sapp's had his ups and downs. You know, that being here and the opportunity to have a positive impact on Colorado's defense. I think it'd be cool.

[D]

I've got a rule that he's breaking. That is a rule to live by. Unless Your name is Mr. T. No Mohawk. No Mohawk past the age of 30. Like, if there's a three in front of your name, you just can't rock the Mohawk anymore. Unless you're Mr. T. He's the only one that could get away with it.

[A]

Press availability said I have. Then, yes.

[D]

And if the press availability was awesome. Like, I loved. He was talking about coaching up the young kid. Now he has to adapt, and he's like, hey, the way I was coaching him wasn't working. But I need these three things. And he's like, discipline, effort, and something else. He's like, we can work with all the other. I loved what I heard. I was. I just couldn't get past the Mohawk.

[A]

Sam. I love it. I love. I just. I can't do this. This. This up here. Right. Too distracting.

[D]

I do. Because I do think he would be somebody that could be head coaching material. I mean, I think a lot of these guys are going to. Not only just to coach with Dion, I think they have their eyes set. These are competitive guys like Marshall Falk and Warren Sapp. They don't see themselves as bowing down secondary. They want their own, you know, potential job someday.

[A]

Good point.

[D]

Be hard to go into that meeting with the Mohawk.

[A]

So in the tailgate before the show, someone brought up a name that honestly wasn't really on my radar in terms of job pressure. I. I thought that, you know, I didn't think that Deion Sanders was going to get fired. I just think it was interesting to at least consider Deion Sanders outlook and pressure in the wake of losing Shadow Sanders and Travis Hunter. But in the tailgate, somebody said Chris Kleiman at Kansas State again.

[B]

Oh, okay.

[A]

Okay. So Yalls reaction is like, mine.

[B]

That's not the one I thought you're gonna go with.

[C]

Total is what, eight and a half?

[A]

Eight and a half?

[B]

No.

[A]

Okay.

[C]

They go eight and four. They won the conference a few years ago.

[A]

I think that there was some just. I think that that is probably fan frustration in the midst of a season where you felt like a. Literally just a couple bungled games kept you from really being a factor in the Big 12 title, the College Football Playoff, like those sorts.

[B]

That BYU game was. That was an abomination.

[A]

It was bad.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know Avery got hurt, but like that was. That was wild.

[A]

And where it wasn't Kansas State, the team that Houston jumped up and got. Yeah.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

Yeah. Like, I just, I, I think that Chris Kleiman is not in any job pressure again. Their win total is at eight and a half. It is juiced under. But I'm not, I'm not going to think that if this is. If Vegas is right, if Vegas is right, it's business as usual in Manhattan until somebody very close to that program tries to tell me otherwise. I know the last year had some frustrating results, but this is still very much an operation that is moving to the program standard.

[C]

You're 28 and 12 the last three years with a conference title, you're fine.

[B]

So.

[A]

Oh, go ahead. Who are you gonna say?

[B]

I was gonna say Joey McGuire.

[A]

Okay, okay. All right. So you think this is like.

[B]

I think if they go under, he's done.

[A]

All right.

[D]

Over.

[A]

Under win total at FanDuel sportsbook of 8 and a half over plus 134. Heavy juiced under minus 164. So if Vegas is right and this is 8 and 4, you think that all that money is going to start to be like, okay, let's get in a proven winner.

[B]

I mean, look, if you pay like an upper half SEC payroll in the Big 12 and you go 8 and 4 with this schedule, I mean their non conference is Arkansas, Pine Bluff, Kent State and Oregon State. So that's an automatic three and oh, I could coach Texas Tech with three and oh against that thing, easy, right?

[A]

So then you went five and four in conference play and if that means.

[B]

You'Re losing four conference games and you don't make the Big 12 title game with a, with a payroll like that, like. And the only, only team in this league, I Think has real like, like serious expectations because of spending.

[D]

Right. And they have a powerful voice that is making those, you know, cutting those checks that.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

Want.

[D]

There's a strong appetite to see Texas Tech as a perennial playoff contender and they've invested in it. There's not only. And they have the. What you're talking about the, you know, third ranked portal class and the money that's going in the roster. There's also facilities that are going up that are insane and you want to back that with a winner. So I'm with you. That's one I was thinking about too, bud.

[B]

Yeah, I, I think that like he's, he's. That was number one on my list like for today for ACC, Big 12 combined. Like, I think he's the coach under the most pressure and returning qb. You lose four games with this schedule with that kind of payroll. What, what, what do we need you for? Like we. I can get some, like just flip a coin. Random coach in there probably's going to do better than five and four in conference play with that kind of payroll.

[A]

Is it Cody Campbell is the name of.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

The other partner. There's another partner too who plays John Sellers. I forgot the guy's name, but he just doesn't get as much. Media Pub. But they're both like. They sold companies for billions.

[A]

Yeah. Grant in the tailgate was asking if we were talking about Patrick Mahomes checks. Now Patrick Mahomes is giving money to the football program, but we are talking about all. Yeah, we're not talking about those losing the super bowl checks. We're talking about that oil money.

[D]

You know, it might be natural gas money, but it's all natural gas money. Energy money, it's all the same.

[B]

Yeah.

[D]

Somebody asked in the chat what about Utah?

[A]

Oh, good point.

[D]

Which? Seven and a half Juice to the under. Don't you think that means it's time to hand off the squad?

[C]

Yes, it's there as long as he wants to be there. Period.

[D]

Yeah, but I don't, don't you think it makes it more likely that he's like, all right, I've had enough.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

But it's going to be his call.

[D]

Yes, agreed.

[A]

Reminder, Morgan Scally, the defensive coordinator, has already been identified as the coach in waiting. Utah has not. Utah did not hold a national search before Wit was promoted. Right. Yeah, I know. That was what, like 2008 or something?

[C]

20 years ago.

[A]

Yeah. So it's like now we're going to be good. Very good decision. Yeah. Utah, interestingly enough, not really we don't even know how the Utah job would rank because we haven't even tested it against the market.

[C]

Yeah. His first full season was 2005. So 20 years.

[B]

Yep.

[A]

Any other big 12 jobs?

[C]

Christ, I'm old. That was 20 years ago.

[A]

I know.

[C]

Jesus.

[B]

I don't know.

[C]

I'm having an existential crisis now.

[B]

I don't. I don't think any other Big 12 jobs is just. Just scanning this. Right. That's obvious.

[A]

I grabbed Baylor because Dave Aranda was under pressure last season. And so if they were to fall massively short of expectations this season, maybe that starts to get a little bit more of a conversation. Maybe the pressure. The pressure starts to build up. I mean, their win total, seven and a half. That's not a. That should be an easy number to hit.

[C]

Did. Did you not read our boy Shahan's top 10 coaching combos between men's basketball and football? Baylor's a top ten tandem. How could. How could Dave Aranda be on the hot seat?

[B]

The only thing I would point here is unlike Texas Tech, which is at eight and a half juice under, Baylor is basically seven and a half juice kind of even. Right. Baylor has Auburn and SMU in the non con. So, like, if they both. Like If Baylor goes 7 and 5 and Texas Tech goes 8 and 4, Bader's finishing ahead of Texas Tech in conference play. Almost certainly. Right.

[A]

Yeah. I think that. I think that all things in the Big 12 from a coaching perspective really should be judged by how close are you to making that conference title game.

[B]

Also with Baylor, I think the argument here is you say, hey, like, you brought back Sawyer, you kept the OC. You do finish with Cincinnati, UCF, UT, which is not easy, but is at home. They're a much different team than when they play up there in Rice echoes at Arizona and Houston. So you are getting four of the five worst teams in the conference preseason. Ratings wise, West Virginia would be the one they don't draw to end the season. So if this does go south down the stretch, it's going south to the teams that you don't think are very good.

[A]

Well, and you better hope that. Then you better hope that the whole team's locked in, everything's moving in the right direction because you know that'll be a coaching challenge if you take a couple lumps early and something to keep an eye on, for sure. All right. We are very, very excited because tomorrow, Thursday, 11am Eastern Time, it's the return of Bill Connolly. That's right. Our friend over from ESPN he is the mastermind of SP plus. He's got the returning production rankings that we hold in the highest regard across the entire industry. And he is an annual visitor in the off season. Here to the COVID 3 podcast, a friend of the family, as we might say. So Bill C. Is going to be dropping in. We look forward to that. And look, this is going to be an interactive show like a lot of mailbag, like a lot of Thursday shows are not a true mailbag. So here's what you can do. Obviously, come hang out in the tailgate. It's even better if you come in before the show gets started. Drop your questions for Bill C. You can also reach out to the COVID 3 podcast on Twitter at Cover 3podcast or any other social media channels with topics that you want to hear them break down. It will be looking at the numbers, the reaction to them, the expectations. But if you've got a specific team, you know, let us know in advance so we can be sure that we hit on it in the course of the conversation there. We look forward to hearing from him, as always. And you can follow him on Twitter at Tom Fornell. You can follow him at Danny Canel. You can follow him@bud elliot3. Follow me at Chip underscore Patterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much.

[B]

Ill see ya.

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