← Cover 3 College Football
Cover 3 College Football
Big Game Breakdown: Keys To The Game For Miami-Florida State, Alabama-Vanderbilt, More! | Cover 3
01:08:43
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This episode of the COVID 3 podcast is presented by Cash App. For a limited time only, new Cash App users can use our show's code when they sign up for a reward. Just download Cash App, use our code cover 3 and send $5 to a friend. Within 14 days, you'll get $10 right in your account. Terms apply. That's money. That's Cash App.
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In the UEFA Champions League, every moment is a story. And every great story needs an the UIPA Champions League Stream every goal, every game live exclusively on Paramount Plus.
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C
Welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast.
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B
With your hosts Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Cannell and Bud Elliott. It's your call for the best college.
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C
Football coverage from national signing day to the national championship and everything in between.
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B
CBS Sports presents the COVID 3PO.
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A
And welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fenelli, that's Bud Elliott, that's Danny Cannell. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you live@YouTube.com cover3 and everywhere. You get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that, subscribe, smash that like and come and join us in the chat. AKA the COVID 3 tailgate. We've got some injury information about Iowa State, which I'm sure we will be hitting a little bit later on. Maxwell is asking us to say something nice about the Wisconsin Badgers. Tbd Max. Don't know if we've got anything there, but what we do have is an absolutely loaded show for you. It is a Wednesday. That means it is time for big game breakdown. We will be going inside the matchup for Miami, Florida State, Vanderbilt, Alabama and much more from the week six slate. Of course there are going to be time for picks, there are going to be time for locks. That will come on Thursday, but Thursday is one day before Friday and Friday, that's when we're all going to be together, baby. Because downtown Tallahassee, Friday afternoon, Madison Social. It is going to be Cover three live. Danny, Bud, Noel Boyce. I need, I need y' all to use your megaphone. I got a big voice. I talk here on the COVID 3 podcast. What, what are we going to be seeing? What are we going to be getting when we arrive down there in Tallahassee?
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C
It's gonna be a blast, man. I'm really, really excited about this. We'll do live from mad. So at 3 o', clock, like in the shadow of the stadium right there, right at the best spot in Collegetown. Get there early for sure. You know, want to rep Miami fans, you can come too, if you want. You know, should be. Should be receptive. I'm sure you can. You can sit with Tom and.
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A
It'S.
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C
Going to be real fun time. We love seeing all our fans. Obviously, the reception's been great. You know, make sure you get there on Friday for the three o' clock show.
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D
It's gonna. And it is the perfect tailgate for the block party that will be Friday night. I saw scenes from the block party against Kent State Friday night before Kent State, where the street was mobbed with people. If it was that way for Kent State, imagine what it's going to be for a game versus Miami. I already got friends reaching out, saying they're going to be there. And you know what? We are a welcoming crowd. So if you're a Miami Hurricane fan and you're going up for the game, come on by. Feel free to talk a little trash. You can do that, too. We'll welcome you with open arms. We'll give a little bit back to you. But we love. We're welcoming there in Tallahassee, so we want to see all parties coming to have a little fun with us, talk a little college football.
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B
And I will make all Florida State fans this guarantee, if you are there on Friday, you will have a better time this Friday than you did last Friday.
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A
Already. Let's go.
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D
Yeah, you don't drink anything unless it's unopened there.
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A
Tom's going. Bottles only right there. Yeah, you see the information right there? If you're watching on YouTube.com cover3. It is cover3 live on Friday, October 3rd, 3pm Eastern Time, Madison Social. The event is free. Get there early. That we will have if you want to participate in the show. Because, of course, we want to be able to not just mingle with the people before and after, but we want you to be a part of this as well. You mentioned the invitation to Miami fans. I'll make it more specific. If you're a Miami fan and you want to come up and you want to go toe to toe with Danny Cannell and Bud Elliott, I'm. I will give you a microphone. Okay. We will have a nice little opportunity to get engaging in some debates. Might do a little big game breakdown for that as well. But the real big game breakdown, of course, coming up in just a little bit. Cover three Live. I'm serious. Hey, look, listen, I'm gonna ask y', all, like, use that Florida State megaphone. Make sure we've got not only the word out, but the details out, okay? We. We need to let Everybody know, Friday, 3pm It's a little bit early, but it's a tailgate for the block party. Should be a great time. Can't wait to see everybody here in person. All right, before we get into big game breakdown and before we get to day trading, Danny always love to check in with the market on Wednesday. Just a couple of headlines, just news items. Want to take the temperature? See how much this moved you. UCLA late on Tuesday night announced that they had mutual parting of ways with offensive coordinator Tino Sinceri. Now, the reason why I bring this up is because we mentioned Tino Senseri and his addition to the UCLA staff as a significant part of the UCLA football story. We asked desean Foster, the former UCLA head coach, what to expect from the offense with sincerity taken over the clearly it hasn't been there. Danny does had how is this, was this a failed experiment from the jump that even have a chance for success? And do we see, do you think we see Tina Sinceri show back up on another staff somewhere?
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D
God, what a poor decision from him. You know, he was Indiana on that thing, which is a steamroller which has not stopped and he goes, and sometimes you have to take a risk and you head to a program and you're trying to turn it around and you haven't even lasted through the first month of the season. You find yourself looking for work. I think he'll come back around. I think he's a good football coach, but I definitely think he took a step back. Like if you're climbing the coaching ladder and you're trying to take the next step up, sometimes you're going to fall back down. That's what it feels like for Tino Sinceri. Also, Jerry Neuheisel, the new offensive coordinator is buddy of mine, Rick Neuheisel, friend of ours here at cbs. I know he was fired up about the opportunity. Mike gonna be an uphill slog for him a little bit, but he's at the stage of his career where he's like, I'll take a coordinator role on my resume. Absolutely. So we'll see if he can throw some stuff out there that maybe hits.
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C
Yeah, I mean, that'll be interesting. Is this like UCLA throwing a bone to new, you know, to a guy who's obviously really tight with the program, you know, and coach there. I, I don't know. I, I, I, I'd be shocked if they're better, to be honest. I thought Tino did a pretty good job with the offense in Indiana, but, you know, we'll see.
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B
Yeah, I Mean, there's, there's nobody.
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C
There are a lot of people think UCLA's ad should be fired. Like, and, and like, if you guys are following that as far as the, like the, the timeline upon which that contract extension was given and some of that guaranteed money, that, that's. Oh, boy, that is, that might get really interesting.
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B
There are a lot of people who feel the AD should be fired. They're called UCLA fans.
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A
Yeah.
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B
And they're getting tired of it. I mean, nobody's absolved their blame in the situation. Like, Danny, you mentioned he took the job. Wasn't a great situation, but it is not a great situation. I don't know who's going to come in there and put together a great offense with what they have personnel wise. But, you know, it's his first time as the primary play caller and it's a difficult spot and it's just the results were bad. No other way to put it.
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A
Have you, Danny, did you, have you talked to Rick on, like the radio show or anything since the, the firing of deshawn Foster?
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D
Yeah, he comes on right after us, so we usually pop on. We have like five minutes with him beforehand, so we'll talk to him about it. I think he was just kind of in line with everybody that thought he might have been over his head for the job. And then it's like, well, everyone saw that on display at the Big Ten media days when he was announced as the head coach. So who does that fall on? It does feel like there's an athletic director problem at ucla.
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A
Would, would coach want to be the general manager of that football team?
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C
Yeah.
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D
If they guaranteed his son was going to still be on the staff. I mean, yeah, definitely. You could broker a deal, I'm sure.
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A
I mean, I just like in the spirit of Andrew Luck, in the spirit of Ron Rivera, you know, like, it may maybe for. And I know that that's, you know, the California schools and the California schools, it's easy to pencil that in there. But I mean, it. He, he still loves that place, you know, like I did. It'll be curious, Very, very interesting to see where it goes again. UCLA will be in the spotlight on Big Time on cbs. Penn State coming to town. Jerry Neuheisel taken over as the new primary primary play caller. It is the back end of a double header on CBS Sports. It will get started with the Commander in Chief trophy. It is going to be a full day of college football begins on noon Eastern time with the matchup between the service academies when Air Force meets Navy Then at 3:30 Eastern, it's big time out west for the seventh ranked Penn State going up against UCLA. That's all coming up on Saturday on CBS and streaming on Paramount. Plus bud, injuries, availabilities, you know, sort of our last time to just cast a wide net before we start going game by game with some of this. Anything that you've gotten in the last couple of days that's crossed your desk that we, we want to alert our, our listeners to.
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C
Yeah, Cincinnati's or, sorry, Iowa State's top corner I think is done for the year. Correct, Correct. That's not great.
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A
Don't know if Tom Orange is going to play.
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C
I don't think that's the reason why they're underdogs Cincinnati. I just think Cincinnati is an equal team to them, you know.
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A
But Iowa State also down kicker and punter.
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C
I didn't know about the kicker and punter.
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A
There are specialist issues as well.
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C
I would not count those guys out, man, like, as far, as far as, like I would not count Iowa State out like that. That team plays hard. I think Beck's a good player. You know, I don't think they have a lot of special talent on that team this year, but like they got some guys who could play. Like they're, they're not a bad team. You know. It, it's, yeah.
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A
Isaac, thank you. Coming through in the tailgate, apparently it's the starting kicker and the backup kicker.
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C
So who's going to kick?
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A
I think we're going for it, baby. I, I think the chart in the book just got a lot more greens I think down analytics by your favorite media rights partners. Just telling you, go every single time now. Walk on. Kicker coming in. Maybe Rocco Beckett. Yeah, that's, that's something that's significant. Any, anything else that we should be keeping our eyes peeled on in terms of statuses heading into Houston.
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C
Got really banged up, really banged up in that game against Oregon State and I know they won. They did not look very good at all. Trying to think of like other stuff here that actually matters with the notes.
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A
I don't know, I mean, you know.
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C
It'S Corleone gonna be back for Cincinnati.
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A
I was looking at Orange to see if he was going to be good to go, but I, I, I hadn't gotten an answer or like dug in to confirm that one way or the other. Corleone obviously the best defensive lineman for Cincinnati. That's going to be something to keep an eye on for sure.
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C
Yeah, I, I would agree. Quay Russo for Alabama this one's going to matter. He's going to miss significant time. So. And their D line has not been great for sure. So you'll have to watch that one. Angelo Pons did not play for Indiana against Iowa. That's one of their one of their best corners.
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A
Obviously.
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Do we know about Granowski? Is he gonna be good?
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B
I don't know yet.
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C
Okay. I mean, if he plays game, there's some chance they beat Indiana.
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B
Yeah, I haven't heard like alarm bells about it, but I haven't really heard anything solid about an update on it either.
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A
Yep. Yeah, lots to be able to monitor. Of course, heading into the weekend, we'll be sure to keep you abreast of all of that. Well, coming up on the other side, the market is open. We check in with day trading Danny and more Next is your debit or credit card boring. If you could customize it, personalize it, what would you put on your debit or credit card? Well, what about a Cash App card? Because not only do you get those great personalization features, but there is so much more that the Cash App card can offer. If you weren't up to speed already, Cash App is way more than just a safe way to send and receive money. With the Cash App card, you unlock tons of perks without all the fees, enjoy benefits like exclusive early access to nationwide concert pre sales and like Kendrick Lamar and Sabrina Carpenter, just to name a couple examples. Plus there's discounts on everyday purchases and popular brands you're probably already spending money on. Cash App also adds security to your money by declining suspicious card transactions and sending you a notification to make sure the payment is really you. If your card is ever lost or stolen, you can lock it with just one tap right in the app. Spend with confidence with the Cash App card today for a limited time only, new Cash App customers can use our exclusive code to earn some additional cash. For real. Just download Cash App use our exclusive referral code cover 3 in your profile. Send $5 to a friend within 14 days and you'll get $10 dropped right into your account. Terms apply. That's money. That's Cash App. Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App's Bank Partnership Prepaid debit cards issued by Sutton bank member FDIC Direct deposit roundups, overdraft coverage and discounts provided by Cash App, a Block Inc. Brand visit Cash App Legal podcast for full disclosures. Shopping is hard, right?
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But I found a better way.
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Stitch Fix online personal styling makes it easy. I just give My stylist, my size.
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D
Style and budget preferences. I order boxes when I want and how I want. No subscription required. And he sends just for me, pieces, plus outfit recommendations and styling tips. I keep what works and send back the rest.
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It's so easy.
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Make style easy. Get started today@stitchfix.com Spotify. That's stitchfix.com Spotify every single Wednesday. We need to get the stock report. Stock up, stock down, buy, sell, and more. We call it day trading. Danny, let it roll.
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D
All right, market is open. First purchase of the day. Somebody reached out to me on X and said, for day trading. Danny, what would you tell me to do? If I'm a Penn State fan, it's time to buy. I get too much. Accused of buying high and selling low. Now is the time to get in on your Penn State stock. They're still going to make the College Football Playoff. They potentially could be in the Big Ten championship game. But I do think this is the time to scoop up your Penn State stock. I know it's hard. This is one that feels stinky. It feels like it's just dipping. Could go even lower. I think this may be as low as it goes in the season. If you want to wait until after they played Ohio State, I would totally understand that. So you just go a little partial trade.
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C
Just buy half of what you were.
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D
Going to buy and then come back and buy some more after they lose to Ohio state. Because at 10 and 2, when the season is over, they'll still be in the College Football Playoff, like it or not. And I think it's all about peaking at the right time. We learned that last year from Ohio State. They had a couple losses in the regular season. What did they do all the way? The national championship. I'm not ready to give up on Penn State just yet. So I'm going to buy some Penn State stock. Low right here.
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B
I view Penn State as like your actual savings account in your bank. Like, it's just where it's at. Whatever. If you put money in it, that's where it's going to be. If you take money out, that's where it's going to be. And then every month you'll get like 12 cents of interest. So I think Penn State's just Penn State.
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A
All right. Fenelli Advisors, you know, you know, DK & Associates. Like, what's the. What. What is the high price? Like, how do you, as you look at this, what if my price was.
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D
Me picking to win the Big Ten this off season right into the Season.
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A
We would not like if, if, if the stock market gets to Big Ten champion, that's when you would sell again. Like that's what I want to say. Like, are we, where are we adjusting this coming out of the weekend?
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B
I, I haven't adjusted much. I mean it's. What did we see in that game? The defense was good and the offense wasn't good enough. What have we seen every time Penn State plays in these games? The defense is good, the offense wasn't good enough. Just again I, I talked about it the other day. Your defense gives you a chance to win these games, but at some point your offense has to win the game for you. You can't just, you know, so it's really what it's going to come down to. And I think that we know what they are on offense. We know who Drew Aller is at this point, we know who the backs are. It's just, it's. I don't know.
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D
They did get there, they did come back. That's what I'm hoping they took from this game. We talked this a little bit on, on our show yesterday on CBS Sports Network was what does Penn State need to do? I think they need to open up the offense a little bit. Go two minute drill like they did in the fourth quarter. Let dry, almost force him to throw the ball down the field. Say, you know what your checkdowns are standing to block. Like you just, you just have to take a shot down the field. We even care if you're throwing interceptions, we're going to call a deep ball and we're going to throw it. I almost it especially a game like this weekend against ucla. It's the opportunity where if you throw a pick, it shouldn't kill you and sometimes you have to do that. But to your question, Chip, I would buy a little bit more. If they lose to Ohio State and then probably once they win a playoff game, which they probably will because it'll be somebody they'll be favored against, then you might sell it.
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A
I was going to say, like, I don't know if I could take this team winning two playoff games. Like if that's, we're setting the. If that's when the stock starts to hit, then that's when I'm starting to like, I don't know if I'm going to get all the way there. At least with what I've seen so far in this season in 20, 25.
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B
Just go max, protect every snap and have two guys run, go routes.
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A
Stuff.
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B
You can throw to the One that.
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C
Looks the most open.
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A
I also, I love our tailgate because they are introducing me to all kinds of language that I didn't know about, like, puts and naked calls. And I don't even like the tailgate. Loves day trading. Danny through and through.
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B
All right, Danny knows about.
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D
Be careful with those naked puts. All right, next up, little Heisman buys and sells. So do you want the buy first or the sells first? Because I already own some of this stock. I already bought up some Ty Simpson. I'm gonna buy some more. As his chances to win the Heisman Trophy. Currently he sits at second, so it is a little bit pricey. I got him cheaper, but I'm gonna add to him for a couple of reasons. One, they haven't been able to run the ball very effectively. Their defense hasn't been as dominant as it been the past. So what does that mean? That means he's going to put up numbers. I think he's going to be statistically right up at the top of the country as long as he stays healthy. He was absolutely shredding apart Georgia on the road, sitting back there as comfortable as could be. I do think he's got mobility to get it done. And even the game against Florida State, he didn't play awful. There just wasn't a lot of opportunity for him. Ryan Williams has gotten going. He's getting more comfortable with some of the other receivers. They have to. Ryan buying up Ty Simpson before this big home game against Vanderbilt, which is one of the bigger games of the weekend, There will be a lot of eyeballs on him. I think he puts up some big numbers. Once again.
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A
I have you. Are you starting to buy in that Nick Saban planted a seed of him? Like, oh, let me make sure I don't say awful words here. Do you think that Nick. Nick Saban has successfully, like, transmitted some of his energy to Ty Simpson? Have you. Have you heard his locker room speech?
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B
Similar.
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D
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
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A
Ty Simpson's like, all right, it ain't about us. All right.
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D
It's about.
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A
And he has, like, the finger going up in the air. He's got about eights per minute.
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D
I mean, he did speak with him after the. After the loss to Florida State.
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B
He's.
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D
He talked to Coach Saban. He said that he got some input there. Very similar to Jalen Hurts, who. When you hear Jalen Hurts talk about football and talk about being a leader, he sounds like a mini Nick Saban. I think that's a great thing for Alabama. Yes.
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A
I love it. You know, like, as Somebody like, I just. I need. I need to see him get the full Hibachi hands going. And then. Then I'll. I'll know that it's. It's there.
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D
So this one kind of hurts. This one stings a little bit. But if you're buying some, you have to sell others. I've been hearing this name get a lot of love recently. I'm selling Diego Pavia going into Tuscaloosa. From a Heisman perspective, maybe if the game is close, you could dabble and they lose, you buy it back. Potentially, I think the run, the. The Cinderella story is about to come to an end in Tuscaloosa. And if that's the case, I think Diego Pavia will struggle. So I am selling my Diego Pavia Heisman stock.
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A
And.
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D
Man, I'm sorry. I'm sorry, but, I mean, it's a. It's business. It's business. I mean, sometimes you gotta. You gotta make trades that you don't love. They're a little bit cutthroat. But this is about making money. This is not about hurting feelings, which some of them may be. I would love to be wrong on this one, but feelings are hurt. I think it comes the resume, while it's pretty good, I do think there are some. Some cracks in the foundation of some of the wins that they've had on.
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A
Pavia side or Vanderbilt in general?
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D
Just Vanderbilt in general.
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A
Yeah.
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D
You know, so I. And then thus, I think it means Bobby is going to lose. Like, if he wins this game, he probably goes to the top of the Heisman Trophy list. Like, I mean, it's been so volatile, the Heisman market with the amount of names, like, where's Fernando Mendoza, who was leading last year? Last week, all of a sudden he drops five or six spaces. And I think it could be the same for the winner of this game. That's why I like Ty Simpson before this one. Speaking of, I have another cell. No homer in this one either. I'm selling Carson Beck Heisman stock. Has anybody noticed in the last two games, as the competition's gotten a little bit better, that Carson Beck has three touchdowns and three interceptions? They've kind of come back to earth a little bit. And as anybody else noticed that while Miami has been spectacular this season, that they haven't had to leave the comfy confines of Hard Rock Stadium, where it's nice and quiet every time you make calls at the line of scrimmage, no matter who you're playing? And now you have to take this show on the road to Tallahassee, where you're not going to be able to operate as smoothly as you have at home. I'm selling my Carson Beck. Not to say, not say that Miami could not win the football game if they do. I think it's more about the defense and it's more about a run game that Florida State gets overmatched physically than it is about Carson Beck having some game where he goes off for 300 yards and three touchdowns and just wows the entire country on the national stage.
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B
I'm gonna push back on this one.
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D
Go bring it then. Bring it.
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B
As the competition has gotten tougher. So South Florida and Florida are better than Notre Dame in. Yes, but I. He threw two interceptions against South Florida. He was also 23, 28 for 340 yards, three touchdowns, and he averaged 12.1 per attempt. Okay, so he took a couple shots and they got picked off, but they were winning by like 40. I don't think he played poorly in that game at all. I think. I don't think he looked good against Florida. But find me the quarterback who has looked good against Florida this year. Nobody has. So not. No. I wouldn't be selling my Carson backstock. Just.
- [24:56]
D
Well, I'll sell it to you then. There's always another side.
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A
Give it to me.
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B
I'm going to invest it in Snapchat. Really doubling down on Carson Beck.
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A
Oh, yeah. Great call, Danny. Some. Some stats that. That might at least back up your notion. I'm sure that your research team came across this. But last season at Georgia, when playing at home, Carson Beck, 21 touchdowns to two interceptions on the road, seven touchdowns to 10 interceptions. So if there's a spot where personal growth needs to be shown. There are a lot of places, but certainly performance on the road is one of them.
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D
All right, next market move. Just two more left. I have a sell in a buy. I'm selling Boise State as a playoff team at all, which should have been done a while ago, but they are almost a three touchdown underdog against Notre Dame. Notre Dame is going to look to unload on them every opportunity they can because they have to impress. So who does that mean? I'm buying. I am buying. I think of ticker symbol AA because that's American Airlines, but I am buying the American Conference as one of those three teams, Tulane, Memphis or usf. To be virtually a lock to make the College Football Playoff. The American champion will be your representative in the College Football Playoff. With already some pretty impressive wins against Power four opponents. We had Memphis already knocked off Arkansas. You Had Tulane knocked off Duke? I worry a little bit about Tulane because of the score against Ole Miss. USF's already got the win over Florida. They've already been pretty impressive. The loss against Miami, similar to the loss against Ole Miss for Tulane. But the American is going to be the team from the group of five to represent the playoffs.
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C
Yeah, I mean, Boise's 125 to one to make the playoff or no, sorry, to make the semifinals, Excuse me, the wrong odds open, but I bet it's 50 to 1.
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B
Say I will take 125 to 1.
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C
I mean, if Boise doesn't beat Notre Dame, Mountain west is dead. Yep.
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A
So you did not mention one team from the American Athletic Conference which is currently undefeated and has a bit of a fortunate scheduling draw in conference play. The North Texas Mean Green do not have that signature non conference win. They do their non conference wins against Lamar, Western Michigan, Washington State and South Alabama. That's not going to woo the committee. But their chances of making the American title game, maybe over. Some of those teams who do have wins are benefited by the fact that in their remaining conference schedule, they do not have to play Memphis, they do not have to play Tulane. And USF is coming to their house on the 10th. So I'd be next Friday night. Their only road trips in conference play are to Charlotte, UAB and Rice. Go. Mean Green might show up there in the American Athletic Conference championship game, even though they're not going to be as much on the radar. Potential spoiler there in that American title race.
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D
That's why it's all encompassing. I bought the American stock.
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A
Tim Pernetti says. Tim Pernetti loves it. You know, he says. Thank you.
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C
So, boys, he's plus 800 at DraftKings to make the playoff. I'm just using them because their menu is much more, much easier to navigate if you're doing a show. There are what, five American teams with better odds to make the playoffs?
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D
Wow, there's five.
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C
North Texas, Tulane, South Florida, Memphis, Navy.
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D
Oh, Navy still in there.
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C
Yeah.
- [28:37]
A
Navy also is on North Texas schedule, but that game is in Denton, so.
- [28:43]
C
Right.
- [28:44]
A
Very favorable draw for Eric Morris and the Mean Green. But I like the call, Danny. I think the American title race is going to be super fun.
- [28:51]
D
I think so, too. I think it's gonna be a ton of fun.
- [28:53]
A
Markets closed, markets close. Thank you, Danny. All right, Coming up on the other side, we turn our attention to some of the big matchups in week six. It is big game breakdown. And it begins. Miami's trip to Tallahassee and more next.
- [29:12]
B
In the UEFA Champions League, every moment is a story, but Kiyosaka scores. And every great score story needs an audience. The UEFA Champions League Stream every goal, every game live exclusively on Paramount plus.
- [29:29]
C
What'S up everyone?
- [29:30]
A
It's Siya Najad from Fantasy Football Today dfs, a weekly NFL daily fantasy show that's a part of the CBS Sports Podcast Network.
- [29:37]
C
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- [29:39]
D
Game previews, which players stock is up or down, and DFS strategies and advice, Mike McLaurin, Meg Shoup and I have.
- [29:45]
A
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- [29:49]
D
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- [29:51]
A
Make sure to turn on those notifications so you don't miss a single pick all season long.
- [29:55]
C
Good luck.
- [30:00]
A
Back here on the COVID 3 podcast. On Wednesdays, best bets are for Thursdays. Going inside the matchup is what we do here in the middle of the week. So we call it Big Game Breakdown. All right, pull up a chair, let's settle in because I don't want to leave any stone unturned. Bud, how do you feel about the lines of scrimmage on the Florida State side? Because a common phrase that we have said on the COVID 3 podcast and it has been parroted by college football thinkers and talkers across the country that Miami has the best offensive and defensive line combination in the in the country. We were very early on trying to jump on this. You know, whether it is that you've got Reuben Bain finally healthy, Akeem Messador, the defensive line, the way that that has been a dominant group. Alex Mirabal always has one of the best offensive lines in the country and they certainly, you know, give Carson Beck a ton of time to work through his progressions. So help me understand the Florida State side. You know, what's the game plan, what needs to happen going up against one of the best trench teams in the country.
- [31:19]
C
Yeah, I don't think you feel good about that, honestly, like Miami has better people than you do. Long lines of scrimmage at almost every spot. I think the real thing that gives you some hope there is that, you know, what you run is something different. Right. Like Notre Dame doesn't run the quarterback. They're a drop back team. Car is not a real mobile guy. Yeah, Florida obviously like Lagway, especially since he looks hurt, is pretty much just immobile back there. You know, USF has Brown, but like USF has Group of 5 personnel still, you know. So how many true dropbacks is Florida State going to run in this game, you know, Miami has not really had to face a run threat at quarterback from a Power 4 team yet. And now they're going to face one of the best run threats in the country. And then like a true 11 man run game. If I'm Florida State, I'm heavy tempo, I'm heavy option here. Like, I. It's very clear from the way they call plays they don't really trust Tommy Castellano to drop back and read it, nor should they. That's not his strength. Right. He's gonna like, he's gonna force feed it to Deuce and it's Gus Malzan's job to scheme everybody else open as Miami probably has to roll coverage to Deuce because Deuce has been playing extremely well. I think they have a real shot to score on Miami though, right? Like we have not seen Miami have to play real disciplined on defense in terms of, of their run fits. Because you faced, you know, an Irish team which, yes, has elite backs. Notre Dame's offensive line is not real good this year. It's not great or it's not not terrible. I'm just saying, like, it's not what it was in prior years. They're not as physical. Like I, I know they killed Arkansas, but to me it looks like Arkansas quit. Right. You know, they kept the pedal down to their credit. But you know, looking at that, I think that they can move the ball in Miami. I'm not saying Florida State's gonna go out and win this game. Miami has really good defense personality. Mesador looks all the way back. Whatever they have him on is, is, man, give me some of that. Because like that that guy looks fully recovered from what he's looked like from the prior two years. Bane is, you know, a defensive player is not going to win the Heisman, but, but if he did, you know, Bane would be a front runner for that. I don't like FSU's matchups there. If they got to block those guys straight up, if FSU's in a lot of, a lot of like obvious passing downs, they're screwed. Miami will kill them. I think their goal is to try to hit explosives and try to run the football. That's a little bit easier, honestly. Like that that's something they can probably do.
- [33:39]
A
Yeah.
- [33:39]
B
I mean, yeah. I don't know how much more to add to that. Like this game, what's going to determine this game for Florida State is how well they hold up up front, both on the offensive and defensive lines. Bud was just saying, and I think that if you look at a script for them to have success in this game, it's going to be the pop explosives. Because I don't think Florida State can sit there and just try to move the chains and go, you know, two, three plays, first down at a time. They're going to have to hit big plays, stay out of third and long. Because this Miami defense, you know, the defensive line, we talk about the pass rushers, it's also been very good against the run. We we met and Bud just touched on it. We saw what they did against Notre Dame's running rushing attack and that was very impressive. Considering what we've seen from Notre Dame since. I think the secondary has been much improved. So, like, my question for Miami defensively is you have a great pass rush, but do you really want it in this game? Like, if Florida State does drop back, is your goal to really chase after Castellanos and maybe get a sack or are you just trying to keep him in the pocket so that way he can't scramble to keep things going and force him to read it? I think you might see some of that because like last year they played so much man in their secondary. This year they're playing far more zone and I think you're going to see that they're going to be like, all right, let's make Castellanos read this out, see if he can find open guys and then just try to force turnovers. Because FSU has struggled taking care of the ball. Like the turnovers total aren't terrible, but their whoopsie daisy rate as A team at 3.07% ranks 94th. So they've recovered a couple fumbles, but they have put the ball on the ground. They have thrown interceptions. If I'm Miami, I'm looking to do that. I'm probably okay giving up an explosive here or there as long as it doesn't result in a touchdown. But I just want to put them in positions to make mistakes on the other side. I mean, we saw it a little bit last week, Florida State, you know, with Chandler Morris doing some scrambling to keep drives going, you don't really have to worry about that. With Carson back, as Bud mentioned, I don't think he, like, whenever Carson Beck starts running, I'm like, what the hell? Like, that is shocking thing to see because he doesn't look great doing it. You just don't see him doing it often. But can that defensive line hold up against the offensive liner? Will Miami just kind of be able to lean on him and keep that offense of theirs off the field and not give, give it the chance to put those explosive plays together. Because Miami's just racking up 10, 11 play drives wearing down that defensive line.
- [35:57]
C
I do think there are a couple things here. One, personnel wise, Miami's a lot better than uva. Style wise, I sort of like this matchup better. It's not saying I like the obviously when you include the personnel in it, not really, but style wise, I do like their ability to play some of the duo stuff that Miami runs as opposed to some of the wide zone stuff that UVA runs. After watching what UVA did to them, what Miami runs is a lot closer to what Alabama runs now. Miami's better at running the ball obviously than Alabama is. Alabama is a much better throw team than Miami has been, I think because of the like the goal tempo in this.
- [36:38]
A
This is a chaos tempo game. Yeah, totally. Wow.
- [36:41]
C
All your defense, like you need to call your defense. If you are Tony White with that in mind, you want a 14 or 15 possession game. Your chance of winning a low scoring game is very low. Like the higher scoring this game is, I think, I think the more chaos, more crazy it gets that favors you. Miami is a very slow tempo team. They don't tempo. Occasionally they're tempo to the line and then it's slow. Check with me. They want those big, big offensive linemen to lean on you. One positive for the Knowles. Their corners have been playing a lot better than I think we thought they would. Jerry Wilson's been pretty good. He got really unlucky last game with that pick six bouncing off and like literally bouncing up to the receiver and the guy running, you know, for 40, if he holds on to that, it's probably ball game, right? Because you're up, you're up two scores going into half type thing. But he didn't. Rawls has also played really well. I think this is probably the game where you have to gamble. If you're Tony White as the dc, I think you have to trust your corners to hold up against Miami's receivers who have been okay but like not amazing, right? Like they don't suck, they're just not. They're not special this year like they were, you know, last year. You have to gamble that your corners can hold up. You need to put more men in the box. You really need to kind of load up and beat the run game with numbers because you're not going to beat the run game with personnel. You have got to commit numbers to it. And if Miami scores some touchdowns, fine. They probably will anyway. Hope they happen fast. You'll trade some touchdowns. If you're Tony White, you're Mike Norvell for some three and outs and for some potential turnovers and for some hits on Carson Beckman. What you can't have is these like seven minute drives where they score and you're not able to use your tempo offense to wear them down. I think this is like a turbo tempo game for the whole time from.
- [38:19]
D
Gus, which is kind of what happened in the adjustments that Florida State made against Alabama because remember the first drive, was it 17 plays, Alabama just marched down the field and you're like, oh my gosh, are they ever going to be able to stop this team? Then they did get a little bit riskier, were able to get some stops and like you said on the offense they were able to get some of those quick hitting big plays. Tom said something though that does kind of concern me because I at Virginia, especially in the fourth quarter and late in that game they did an outstanding job with their edge rushers going up the field. So Castellanos was kind of stuck in the pocket and he did not look very comfortable. He was almost looking to try to escape outside and he had to go so far around and out the back of the pocket like by the time you're out there it's just kind of you're too far, you're throwing the ball way too far, the ball too far down the field. So that is something absolutely to keep an eye on. I think this is where Gus has to get in his bag a little bit too with a lot of misdirection, some trick plays. We've seen him do some really good things so far this year. He's gonna have to be special just like he was against Alabama. We saw the jump pass at Virginia just kind of to show you some different things. Even against was it East Texas A and M, he had some, you know, really exotic formations, was having fun. I think they've got to have that type of game where they hit on some of those on the other side. I agree with Bud. I think it's a pretty good matchup because Beck is a pocket passer. I like the way our skill position sets up. I'm the skill positions I feel pretty good about. Like maybe you don't have the edge, but I feel like it's pretty close. The trenches are clearly an edge towards Miami and I do think the fact that Carson Beck is more of a pocket passer I think is a huge edge. Look at Chandler Morris, how many times you felt like you stopped the run. He pulls it and he goes in for a touchdown, like on huge plays. Beck is sneaky, though. He can get like. He had some good games rushing the football. I think that is something to keep an eye on. I don't think you want to have him running the ball, but it is something to keep an eye on. Because if he gets his legs going, then it comes more concerning going back.
- [40:18]
B
To the Alabama game because, like Bud, you mentioned, this is a similar kind of offense that they're going to be dealing with here. Like, correct me if I'm wrong, because I can't remember exactly, but like, going back to that game Ty Simpson had, the guys were there. He was just late, correct?
- [40:32]
C
Yeah.
- [40:33]
B
So are you concerned at all about that with Carson Beck, who probably won't be late to those throws since he's got so much experience?
- [40:39]
C
I don't think Miami has Bama's guys on the outside. I. I think for safe can cover Miami's guys at least at corner. Now, I think Florida State's linebackers are really not good at all at coverage, so that's why I think it's so important to heat them up. If you sit in zone, Beck has all day max confidence. Beck will carve them up there. What we have not seen is Beck make difficult throws so far this year. Miami fans will tell you that that's because they've played all games in the rain and they're right. Like they are. They are factually correct that there has been rain or at least wet ball in all of Miami's games. Is that the reason that Becky the ball's kind of, you know, hanging up there on him a little bit, or is that the guy had Tommy down surgery and maybe he's not all the way back? We don't really know. You know, I think we're looking at good weather on Saturday, knock on wood in Tallahassee. But that is kind of an unknown in this game. We don't really know how well he's going to throw it. I do. I. If you don't. If you don't put pressure on him, if you don't take some chances, I got max confidence that they will absolutely carve these linebackers because Florida State doesn't cover where the damn at, backer. They just don't.
- [41:42]
B
So what I'm hearing is that maybe we should take some overs on Elijah Lofton as receiving yards.
- [41:47]
C
Yeah, I would. I. I don't. I don't think they have anybody who can stick with Lofton. Although One of the big things here is if you watch what the defense did when Ashland Barker went down in that game for the Knowles like he's their real kind of enforcer safety even more than our little. It got worse. So you know, if they have him back for this game, which I think there's a chance that that would be pretty huge.
- [42:10]
A
Comment in the tailgate. You know, again, best bets are going to be for Thursday that you know.
- [42:14]
C
When I see Lewis's Ross comment like Earl's not a great cover guy, man. Sorry. Like he's, he's a big like hit and run guy but he's, he's not a special cover guy. I would take Lofton to get open on him.
- [42:25]
A
Is the over or under a better play in this game? Again, best bets will be on the locks. But I mean I just, I, I, I think I leaned your way as well. But it's a. Tommy's either scoring or.
- [42:36]
C
Tommy's turning it over.
- [42:38]
A
It's a chaos game.
- [42:39]
C
Yeah.
- [42:40]
A
No, it feels no, too many.
- [42:45]
C
Does not coach to keep games close like he coaches to win. He does not really turtle in this kind of stuff. They, they will like they, if they have a 3% chance to win it, they're okay. Getting blown out like a fourth down.
- [42:57]
D
Call against Bama and late in the second half he goes for what was his own 36 or something like that. He went for it.
- [43:04]
C
That's the kind of concern the other guy like he leaves a lot of points on the field.
- [43:08]
B
Outline moneyline game can't lose. Yeah, yeah.
- [43:13]
A
You create a nine point window where Florida State doesn't win and if Miami doesn't win by 10, you know that's listen, all line, money line, you heard it. Danny, any other final word here from you in terms of just the ways that this thing will hinge? I mean I like I'm not to go to knuckle draggy, but there's some big like Florida State. How do you respond Miami, you're like, do you come out creaky? You know, this is your first road game. You are coming out of an off week. I mean there Florida State's got a chance to come in, start hot and all of a sudden Miami's like, oh crap, a 100 deficit, a 140 deficit. Like there's, it's a game where I could see all outcomes until we start to get into it and see who starts to land the first couple punches.
- [44:00]
D
Florida State, historically this has been a game that oftentimes comes down to a field goal. Didn't love that Weinberg missed a field goal last week against Virginia. It's kind of one of those games where it's like, oh boy, another bad thing happened. Special teams, an area we never discuss. Probably going to play a huge role in this game. You know, if it is one possession game, you know who outperforms there?
- [44:23]
A
Oh, who's going to muff a punt? Somebody. Someone is going to muff a punt in this game. Who's going to be the one to do it? I mean I was thinking Carson Beckins. Yeah. I mean who's which team's punt return stuff has been awful.
- [44:37]
C
Florida State.
- [44:38]
A
Oh yeah, yeah.
- [44:39]
C
But, but that's really been under Mike Norvell. Like, like he has not been able to get a decent like putt returner at all. They don't do a good job of that in Tallahassee. Shannon Dawson's a hell like I think Shannon Dawson's a hell of an OC for Miami though, like that he's going to score some points. The question is how long do you let Miami hold the ball? I don't have any confidence Forestage is going to shut this offense down. Unless Beck is actually like if there's something actually wrong with him, if, if the reason why he was one of one of seven on passes that went for more than 10 yards in the air is that he's dinged, then I take back these comments.
- [45:16]
B
In B's first year at Illinois, he didn't trust any of the punt returners on the roster. So he literally had the punter field punts. You just fair catch him. That was really the only goal was just catch it and then we'll start from there.
- [45:27]
A
And the guy who's out there practicing all right, again that is 7:30pm Eastern time on Saturday and on Friday 3:00pm Eastern time you can come hang out with us. Madison Social in Tallahassee A little bit earlier in the day, Tuscaloosa will be the site as the Vanderbilt Commodores look to get their first win in Tuscaloosa in decades. Clark Lee says we're not worried about history. We're making our own as that's what that's the way Clark Lee is wired. 5 and oh, Commodore is coming into town. We mentioned on upon further review, Vanderbilt maybe with a better chance to win the SEC than a lot of people would realize, but I kind of think you got to get this one to really open that up and make it a reality. Now for Alabama, they are trying to avoid the exact same fate of what they had last year. Danny, first word to you here. What's. What did you see from Alabama that you think is repeatable? What if you are the Crimson Tide, are you on high alert for as they find themselves again in that precarious position of being coached by Kaylin DeBoer and favored by double digits.
- [46:33]
D
I feel best about the pass game with Ty Simpson. We talked about that earlier. It's why I bought him, bought up his stock. And I would say the thing I'm most nervous about is Diego Pavia kind of doing similar to what Tommy Castellanos did. Kind of having a game where QB run game, you know, big plays, pops a couple, you know, and it's a different style that he plays against. But I don't Diego Pavia's numbers against the better teams passing wise do come down a little bit back to earth. So I think it's similar. I think you want to see him try to keep him in the pocket as much as you can. And I, I feel like this is a game because Diego Pavia loves doling out punishment as a runner. I would just caution him against doing that in this game. Like these are a little bit bigger dudes. They're going to probably be looking every chance they can to get some big hits on him. He thrives on that. But I just wonder if you can do that for four quarters against Alabama.
- [47:30]
C
Is Bama going to be disciplined at all against the running quarterback? Because under Kaylin Debo I think they're over five. Like they have not had a single even decent off defensive game against an offense that really features running quarterback like zero honestly that they gave up 16 to USF last year. But if you watched it, that was really just the USF quarterback missing some open guys like he had whatever he wanted with his legs and they schemed a lot of stuff wide open. I know it was young secondary but you know Vandy dropped 40 on them last year while holding the ball like forever, you know. South Carolina Bama like was very lucky to win that ball game with Sellers running around doing his thing. LSU pocket passer Bama killed them, right? Missouri back at quarterback. Bama killed them. Oklahoma, Jackson Arnold was awful last year. They still found a way to just basically break out all the QB run stuff. Bama couldn't play it. Bama lost by 21 Florida State this year. Bama's defense looks slow and confused. They're over five like playing a decent defensive game I think against mobile quarterbacks and you could say everybody has struggles with mobile quarterbacks. The deviation ain't this big guys. I don't know if it's something that King Womack can't teach or that's probably not true. I think he has failed to do a good job so far against mobile quarterbacks and this Vandy offense is way better than it was last year. Like they're more physical. They will block you. I have full confidence they can block Alabama. Stowers is a really good tight end. I, I think Vanderbilt's going to score here.
- [49:08]
B
Yeah, I mean like I think if you this is going back to the meeting last year I don't think Alabama gave up a ton of big plays to Pavia in the run game but he just kind of killed them by just on every third down they needed six yards. He'd go get seven and then keep the drive alive and it just wore them down as the game went on and then I think where they really destroyed him was he hit so many like shots in the passing game that it was just, it was nuts but he was able to do in there. But yeah, that is my concern. If I'm Alabama fan it's what Bud just went over our struggles against these kind of offenses and you look at how I mean Vandy's offense has been very good. If you look at all the statistics to start the year these are two of the best offenses in the country going into this game and we could argue it's the two best quarterbacks in the SEC going head to head in this game. For me the concern is if I'm Vanderbilt we won this game last year it was Jalen Milroe, it's Ty Simpson this year. It's a very different quarterback, it's a very different offense. They have very good receivers and my thing with Vandy so far this year is they haven't been bad defensively against the past but they haven't been great. So can Alabama exploit that where they might not be as excellent as coverage as they need to be in this matchup Compared to last year where you had a quarterback who was kind of hit or miss it was just deep shot after deep shot and you hope you hit enough of them. Alabama doesn't have to operate that way. So I think that is going to be a concern. If I'm Van needs something I need to figure out and be able to keep these guys in front of us, be able to stick on them and then I think the other big thing in this game will be the red zone because both of these defenses have stunk in the red zone. Neither like they have Both Alabama and Vanderbilt have allowed a touchdown on every goal to go situation they've been in. Does anybody get a stop? Can anybody force a field goal? Because I do think this one the whole chat's been chanting over for like the last five, 10 minutes. I do think this will be a higher scoring game and I do think just holding somebody to a field goal might end up proving to be the difference. And another spot like Alabama has not turned the ball over this year. Vanderbilt's defense is seventh in the nation in turnover rate. Can Vandy force Alabama into making the mistakes that they haven't yet and if they do, can they actually take advantage of it? Because Vanderbilt's turnover margin of plus 5 is one of the better ones in the country. But they're only getting two points per game in turnover margin which ranks 51st, which isn't bad but you'd hope that they'd be able to take more of an advantage of the turnovers that they forced to this point. They haven't. So that's going to be huge. So I think red zone and taking care of the football in what I expect to be kind of a back and forth affair will be huge.
- [51:43]
A
Do you take anything from the fact that Alabama gave up, what was it, 220 some odd yards on the ground to Georgia? Now that wasn't the quarterback run game so it doesn't perfectly fit that same narrative. But this is a Vanderbilt offense that runs the ball about 10 less times per game than Georgia does on average so far this year and has done it more efficiently. I mean we can talk about the quarterback run game but is can Vanderbilt get out there and run on this team in the same way that a bigger, stronger, you know, the Convenerbilt have as much success in the way that Georgia did? Not the same style to get there but at least the same end results?
- [52:21]
B
I, I think so. I think if you look at Vanderbilt's offensive line they are much better in the run game than they are in pass protection. So I, I think like I think for Vandy it will be key to obviously stay in a game state to where they can lean on their run game because I do think they could do so effectively.
- [52:37]
A
Anything else.
- [52:40]
C
Vandy looks much improved on offense to me. Defensively they're, they're not bad. But remember like Vandy has played one offense with a pulse, right? South Carolina. And that's not a great South Carolina offense and before Sellers got hurt in that game he was 6 of 7 for 94 yards. So it's not like, they were really shutting him down. They shut down the South Carolina run game, but welcome to the club. Everybody does. I, I think Vandy may need to score 40 to win this or hold the ball for like, you know, 36 minutes type thing where, you know, you're scoring touchdowns on, you know, like half your drives or more than half of your drives. Because I, I think Bama will score on them maybe a lot.
- [53:27]
A
Kaylin Deborah says he's not a superstitious man. He's not going to believe in the power of the black hoodie. Alabama fans love black hoodie. Deboer.
- [53:37]
D
They love it better now because it was all, I can't believe he's wearing a hoodie.
- [53:41]
C
At first.
- [53:41]
D
Now they love it. Now it's back.
- [53:43]
A
Not the, not the Crimson hoodie. It's right. Yeah. The black hoodie, you know, is the one that is. Everyone seems to be drawn to right now.
- [53:50]
B
Okay, another, another thing I think you need to, like, last year, Alabama beat Georgia, then lost to Vandy. The next week, Alabama just beat Georgia. Now they're facing Vandy again. And I think one of the things, and we talked about it earlier the week, whether it was Monday or the reaction show Alabama under Kalyn Deboer, like, the letdown situation. Can they stay up for this game? Like, does it help Alabama that Vandy's actually undefeated and ranked in the top 20? Does that give them, like, the players in that locker room are like, we can't take this team for granted, especially based on what happened last year. So I think that's an important factor. I think this is a good test for where this program's culture is as far as being able to show up every Saturday and treat everybody the same.
- [54:34]
C
I don't know if it's the number beside their name. I think it's the fact that they beat you last year and that, you know, Pavia talks just absolute cash trash, right? And he's on the Netflix special and he's all over the place. Like, I guarantee you Bama's players know who this guy is.
- [54:50]
A
Yeah, I'd agree with that. It is the memories of getting field rushed, field stormed, you know, out of Nashville last year, and as your planes taken off, you're watching the goalposts get carried down Broadway. You know, I think that they'll. I think they'll take it seriously. All right, let's do the time we got left. Some just sort of like what you're looking for, quick hitters, you know, the Texas at Florida is two woeful offenses. Two big old brands. I, I, the X's and O's of this, I, I don't know, man. I kind of feel like this is an ugly game. I don't.
- [55:27]
B
The total's 41 and a half. It ain't going to be pretty.
- [55:30]
A
I mean it's. And there's no positive outcome, right? No one feels good.
- [55:36]
B
Yes, there is. I think if Texas wins this game, like 31 to 10, that's a very positive outcome for Texas.
- [55:42]
A
Okay.
- [55:43]
C
Like 27 to 10, you know, like 24 to 10.
- [55:47]
D
Yeah. I think any double digit win, I think you're pretty happy if you're Texas.
- [55:52]
A
Okay, so there is one. And then if you're Florida, then yeah, I guess that you were already skidding kind of off the road. So the fact that you might end up in the ditch eventually, you know, you kind of felt the car pulling that way.
- [56:06]
D
If it's 31 to 10, do we see a change made on Monday or Sunday?
- [56:11]
B
Maybe.
- [56:12]
C
But when's their bye week?
- [56:14]
D
It was just now. They just had it, just got past it.
- [56:17]
C
Most a lot of teams have two this year though. What? You know when their second bye week is?
- [56:20]
A
I don't know when their second one is. I don't have it pulled up right now. Let's see.
- [56:24]
B
But if you're a Florida fan, all right, is there a small party? You're just hoping you do lose this game. Like, do you really want to win this game? Because does winning this game buy Napier credit?
- [56:34]
D
Like, oh, it definitely would.
- [56:36]
B
That's what I'm saying. So if you're a Florida fan and you're being honest with yourself, what are you really hoping for here?
- [56:44]
C
I think you're hoping that Lagway looks incredibly healthy and like you hoped he had looked in the start of the year and you're like, all right, we're back in for the same reason why we were back in to start the season. Right. I mean if you win a game like 10 to 3, you're like, Geez, you're pissed off. Yeah, I think so.
- [57:01]
A
They haven't beat an FBS opponent at home yet. Clean. Their only win in the swamps one right is against the Sharks, you know.
- [57:13]
D
Well, I mean, I think in a perfect world you're like, can they run the table? I mean they did get hot, incredibly hot last year. And that's all right. It's clear as day. Anything short of that, if you're eight and four against the schedule, I think they're probably keeping Napier and you feel pretty good about it. To keep the team together. And you see Lagway, that means he's playing better. So I think you hope for the win. You would love to. For Napier to hang on. You don't have to worry about buyouts. I don't think it happens. I don't think they get to that eight or nine win mark.
- [57:40]
C
Eight, four means you are beating that. You're not slipping up against Kentucky and Mississippi State. And then you are beating 5 of Texas, Texas A M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Florida State, Tennessee.
- [57:52]
A
Right.
- [57:53]
C
Yeah, I think they will. It will keep Billy Navier.
- [57:57]
A
Right.
- [57:57]
C
So that's what you're rooting for.
- [58:00]
B
But do you really want that, like.
- [58:02]
D
To go into the hospital?
- [58:03]
A
Yeah.
- [58:04]
D
Then I think it's Groundhog Day.
- [58:07]
C
It's like, well, maybe this time it'll work.
- [58:10]
D
And you would have started earlier and you would be beating really good teams.
- [58:13]
C
You're not gonna go 8 and 4, right. Just with the defense, if you go 8 and 4, it's like, hey, Lagway got healthy over the bye week. In hindsight, like, guys, all right, we'll be truthful now. He really didn't get very many reps with this team in the off season. That's why it looks so rough. He was probably still actually hurt, you know, that. That type of thing. Because, like, you're not going to go 8 and 4 with just defense. So it means they got the offense fixed.
- [58:36]
B
Okay.
- [58:37]
A
But, oh, go ahead.
- [58:38]
C
If he goes 8 and 4, I would keep him. Yeah. Like, Florida fans would be happy to finish that way. Yeah.
- [58:43]
B
And you say, hey, you know, we just need. Blah, blah, blah, just if this happens, if this happens, if this happens. And then you look at the schedule and guess what? You're still playing Georgia, you're at Florida State, you're at Auburn, you got Oklahoma, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Vand at Kentucky, you're at Mizzou, you're at Texas. It's the same damn story. If you do that and then you start off slow and we go through the same thing again, or is it like, well, are they going to move on from Napier? But then they win a couple games and it's like, well, we better give them another shot.
- [59:10]
C
I think it's all tied. Like, if you finish strong and Napier and Lagway is not hurt, I think that that's what Florida fans would say. Like, look, they would. They would just blame it on the injury. Well, and they may not be wrong about that. I don't know. He'd looked at Tallahassee caller, though.
- [59:24]
A
I think he'd looked at Tallahassee and the only path forward is with a. Like Norvell says, I'm going to give up play calling and I'm going to hire Gus Malzahn. I think that there's so much hand wringing within the Florida community about Billy Napier holding on to the play calling duties.
- [59:38]
C
Yeah.
- [59:39]
A
That. That would have to be a part of it. Tom, I'm glad you mentioned the Texas side of this because that was disrespectful of me. I mean, we haven't gotten a chance since week one in Columbus against a defense that we have now recognized to be reloaded and one of the best, if not the best in the entire country. What if, what if Texas's offense comes into this game and plays well? That would, I think, be a fun, that would be a fun storyline that would have some positivity to it, Right? Yeah.
- [60:10]
D
Great.
- [60:11]
A
Okay. All right.
- [60:12]
D
I wasn't beaten a Power 4 team either. Like, I mean they haven't exactly crushed it as well. So I think that's, that's what you want to see from Texas is CR Manning look comfortable on the road, make some throws, make some plays with his legs, not have, you know, not miss wide open receivers and look overwhelmed. That's what you want to see for Texas.
- [60:34]
A
Yeah, there's a, there's a arch Manning balls out in the swamp storyline that I think would, you know, give it. Give a little more juice into that Oklahoma game. You know, even as Oklahoma. I mean, listen, listen. After everything Dr. Shin did for college football, you know, after, after everything the patron saint Dr. Shin did for college football, we got, we got reports coming from the Chipotle, you know, the, the chip.
- [61:01]
D
Just be ready for some shinsanity when Mater comes back.
- [61:08]
A
Yeah. Okay. So lots to, to take in there again. Florida, Texas, not exactly. Not carrying necessarily the, the buzz that we might have expected going into it. What else? Sort of open floor here. Tom, where do you want to turn our attention? What are some of the. The games or matchup angles of some of these games that have jumped out to you as we Prepare our Week 6 slate?
- [61:30]
B
We touched on the injury situation for him earlier in the show, but like Iowa State, Cincinnati, Like Cincinnati is favored in the game. Iowa State's 5, 020 in conference play. They are the second highest rated team in the Big 12. Like this is the kind of game where I look at Cincinnati and I don't think the Bearcats are the team that can win the Big 12. I think Iowa State can, but this is the kind of Game that could, with the injuries completely tank Iowa State's chances. Because this is the kind of loss, if you have it on the resume. I don't know, man. It's just. This is a huge game for the Cyclones. If they're able to survive this one on the road with these injuries and get the win, I think that puts them in a good position. Whereas a loss could be devastating for him and it'd be kind of suck considering the situation.
- [62:13]
C
Do you like Iowa State's team or like Iowa State's schedule?
- [62:16]
B
Both. Like I don't think. I don't. If, if I'm power rating teams in the Big 12, I'm not putting them ahead of Texas Tech, I'm not putting them ahead of Utah. But I think that.
- [62:25]
C
Not at tcu. Right. Or Arizona State.
- [62:28]
B
Talent? Well, I, I kind of have them in a similar tip tier. I, I think talent wise they're not incredible, but I think just identity wise and culture wise they are a very solid football team because they know who they are and they know what they do.
- [62:42]
C
Is everyone of Iowa State's wins gonna miss their, their season long win total by two or more games?
- [62:50]
B
I don't know. I have not done that. Have you?
- [62:52]
C
Yeah, it looks, it looks, it looks fraudulent. I'm not trying to hate on Iowa State, but.
- [63:01]
D
Brandon Sorsby has been balling for Cincinnati. It's 11 touchdowns, one interception. Also leads the team in rushing. Little deceiving because he had 100 against Nebraska, but he's mobile enough to hurt you. I just wonder how Iowa State's defense does against that offense, which has been pretty strong. And can Iowa State get in a higher scoring game and kind of open things up and go back and forth? If that's the, that's what the game kind of dictates. And I would have my doubts when.
- [63:31]
A
We think about like how has that Iowa State. Iowa State defense did a decent job? I mean, I know, but to your point, Kansas State's nothing like what we expected. But they kept Avery Johnson kind of hemmed in, Right?
- [63:44]
C
Yeah.
- [63:46]
A
Well, we'll see lots again. It seems like the kicker situation is. Is something to keep an eye on, which.
- [63:55]
B
Oh my God, being out.
- [63:57]
A
Flashback. Remember Arizona State had a horrible kicking situation early last season.
- [64:02]
B
Yeah.
- [64:02]
A
Lose to Cincinnati.
- [64:05]
B
Yeah.
- [64:06]
A
I mean, same. Levitt was hurt too.
- [64:08]
B
But what is Cincinnati doing to opposing kickers that we don't know about? This is an investigation that needs to happen.
- [64:15]
A
I think we should blame Illinois for food poisoning. That's what we should do anyway. We're Playing for a cannon. Tom, should we be concerned about Illinois in a letdown spot when they're playing for a cannon?
- [64:29]
B
I'm always concerned about Illinois against Purdue. Always. Just the way that these games go. It's a rivalry game. You throw out the record books. None of that matters. This is just two guys or two sets of players fighting for a cannon, and you do anything you have to to get it. Be nice if the offensive line plays the same way it did last week. Or maybe USC's defense is just soft and we don't realize it yet.
- [64:51]
A
Are we concerned about the future of our country? Given the total on Air Force Navy.
- [64:58]
C
Are we sure this total should. Let's say that for tomorrow.
- [65:02]
A
Okay.
- [65:05]
D
I want to move it too much.
- [65:08]
A
Are you. Are you thinking it's too low?
- [65:11]
C
Maybe. Stay tuned for tomorrow.
- [65:14]
D
Oh, my God.
- [65:15]
C
My sprinkles, too.
- [65:18]
A
The JV team. The little baby planes. Yeah, that's how the baby planes can get over. All right, so Washington heads to the East Coast. They absolutely tripped all over themselves when they were at Rutgers last year. Any concern that Jed Fish's group could suffer a similar scenario as they head to the big turtle shell against a Maryland team who is undefeated but has beaten just one power conference opponent, and that was Wisconsin with the backup quarterback?
- [65:49]
B
Plenty of reason to be concerned here. Yeah, I. I wrote about it. You can read my story on CBSSports.com if you look at the Big Ten in the travel situation, if you remove Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon from it all the other 15 or. Yeah, 15 teams, my God, it's a huge league. Anytime they have you traveled across the Rockies to get to your game, you are 5 and 19 straight up and 8 and 16 against the spread. We saw it last year. Washington went on the road to face Rutgers in a similar situation, although that was on a Friday night a little bit different, and they lost. Now you're traveling to face a Maryland team that's played pretty well and we've seen it. These teams that have to make these trips don't perform well.
- [66:27]
A
Check our. Our health of the secondary for Washington. Obviously, going up against Malik Washington, that's going to be a big part of this because, you know, you need to have gifted playmakers when inevitably the ball is going to bounce off the hands of a wide receiver for Maryland and, you know, maybe you can scoop that up and turn it into an interception. Any. Anything else that we want to have our eyes on.
- [66:49]
C
I predict this week a Georgia defensive lineman will finally get a sack against.
- [66:53]
A
The FBS team Kentucky is that FBS team that the Georgia Bulldogs are playing this week.
- [67:00]
B
The question is, does he get the sack or does Zach Calzada run into it?
- [67:09]
A
Yeah, all very fair questions.
- [67:10]
C
All right, that file's like 30 million due within 30 days.
- [67:15]
A
For stoops. Yeah.
- [67:17]
C
Yeah, it's something wild like, when does basketball season get here?
- [67:21]
A
I. I would not be surprised if Mark Stoops is the head coach of Kentucky in 2026.
- [67:28]
C
Neither would I. Oh, I'd be shocked if he's fired.
- [67:32]
A
Okay.
- [67:32]
C
All right.
- [67:34]
A
And that is all buyout related.
- [67:36]
C
Yeah.
- [67:36]
A
I mean, because this also is a. This game is the kind of. Remember last year was 13 to 12. You just kept being like, Georgia Wake.
- [67:44]
C
Oh, 90 days. 38 million do within 90 days or 38 million do within 60 days. The chat's arguing over the days, not the number.
- [67:51]
A
I mean, that is still a lot to be able to pull.
- [67:53]
C
30 days.
- [67:55]
B
It's like you just. Do I get an extra 30 days to raise that money? That's only a million to day. I'll be fine.
- [68:01]
A
Ain't enough. Ain't enough horses at Churchill Downs to be able to figure out ways.
- [68:06]
B
When's the next meet at Churchill? I don't even know if the money's that high right now. It might be gone.
- [68:09]
A
Are you still playing the ponies?
- [68:12]
B
No comment.
- [68:13]
A
Okay. All right. We will be back on Thursday, 11am Eastern Time. It's the best time of the week where we give you our locks for the weekend. So come and hang out YouTube.com cover3 and you can follow him on Twitter at Tom Fernell. You can follow him@bud Elliott3. You can follow him at Danny Canal. Follow me at Chip Underscore Patterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much.
- [68:36]
B
Thank you.
- [68:37]
D
See ya.
- [68:38]
B
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