Big Game Breakdown: Keys To The Game For Oklahoma-Texas, Alabama-Missouri and More! | Cover 3

Summary

Cover 3 College Football Podcast

Episode: Big Game Breakdown: Keys To The Game For Oklahoma-Texas, Alabama-Missouri and More!

Date: October 8, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott

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Main Theme / Purpose

This loaded Wednesday edition of the Cover 3 College Football Podcast offers in-depth analysis and breakdowns of the major upcoming matchups in Week 7 of the 2025 CFB season, focusing especially on Oklahoma-Texas (Red River Shootout), Alabama-Missouri, and other marquee games. The hosts dig into quarterback situations, offensive line struggles, defensive strengths, and matchup-specific strategies — all with their trademark banter, sharp takes, and occasional irreverence.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Market Watch with "Day Trading Danny" (02:44–16:26)

• Danny opens the show with a "stock market" approach, buying and selling figurative 'shares' in players and teams.

  • Arch Manning "Flop" Debate

    • Recent negative press (Will Leitch column) labeled Arch Manning a flop; Danny sees it as an overreaction and a buying opportunity.
    • Debate about whether the media was fueling engagement vs. actual analysis.
      • Tom Fornelli: “I thought it was the most inoffensive column of all time… a lot of performative righteousness on social media.” (04:23)
      • Bud Elliott: “The blame needs to go on the offensive line for Texas and not Arch.” (05:13)
    • Resolved that Arch has plenty of time and potential to rebound, particularly given the poor OL play.

  • Other Player 'Stock' Takes:

    • BUY: Nico (Nico Iamaleava, QB) after breakout performance vs. Penn State (08:33)
    • SELL: Aiden Chiles (MSU QB) amid poor play and possible demotion (09:56)
      • Bud still sees Chiles as a valuable transfer portal commodity.
    • Group of Five Stocks:
      • BUY: Drew Messmaker (North Texas QB), Tommy Castellanos (FSU QB)
      • SELL: Bo Pribula (Penn State QB)
    • Missouri: Danny is skeptical of their resume despite the wins, calls it “a little bit fraudulent” (15:13) and predicts an Alabama letdown for Mizzou.

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2. Big Game Breakdowns — Matchup Overviews and Key Factors

A. Indiana at Oregon (Big Ten Showdown) (18:10–24:52)

• Oregon’s dynamic receivers (led by Decoran Moore) vs Indiana’s upgraded secondary (D’Angelo Pons)
  • Bud: “If Decoran cooks D’Angelo Pons, then it’s really night-night Hoosiers for me.” (19:17)
• Indiana’s improved offensive line and Mendoza’s (QB) mobility give them a fighting chance, but holding up against Oregon’s athletes is the question.
• Models vs. Reality: The analytics model rates Indiana surprisingly high—potentially overreacting to small data quirks—causing skepticism.

B. Ohio State at Illinois (24:52–25:40)

• Mostly dismissed as a serious upset possibility; Tom jokes about being all-in on Illinois "by a billion." (24:57)

C. USC at Michigan (25:41–26:02)

• No new notable injury updates.
• Ongoing jokes about Lincoln Riley complaining about refereeing and travel.

D. Oklahoma vs. Texas (Red River Shootout) (28:27–41:08)

• Quarterback Injuries / Questions:
  • Will John Matiere (OU QB) play?
    • Split opinions; most hosts say “No,” Tom says “Yes.”
    • Past OU subterfuge noted, referencing fake warm-up schemes.
    • Strategic argument: If Matiere is out, playoff committee may excuse OU loss, so sitting him may be wise.
• Game Style Expectation:
  • Tom: “I don’t think this is your kind of 42–41 Red River Shootout … I think this is going to be very sluggish, rock-fighty.” (30:29)
  • Both O-lines are a liability; likely a defensive struggle.
    • “Oklahoma upgraded its offensive line from pretty bad to below average. It’s not a good O-line yet.” — Bud (33:09)
  • Discussion of backup QBs: Hawkins vs. Arnold — both seen as limited, with Hawkins perhaps slightly preferred.
  • Keys for Texas:
    • Need Manning to be more of a game manager; keep plays safe and short, avoid risky deep shots
    • “Let’s start testing Oklahoma’s open field tackling. There you go Steve, right there for you.” — Chip (36:31)
  • Oklahoma’s hope: skill players making a difference, possible edge if Texas tackling falters

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E. Alabama at Missouri (40:12–47:55)

• Missouri’s Offensive Challenge:
  • Alabama defense looked sharp vs. Vandy; Missouri must run the ball successfully.
  • Ahmad Hardy (Mizzou RB) has rushed for 100+ in every game, but Alabama may load the box to focus on him and dare Bo Pribula to win the game through the air.
    • “Are you better off just trying to load the box to stop Hardy … turn this into a game where Pribula either beats you with his legs or arm?” — Tom (40:26)
  • Missouri has a balanced, top-25 type team, but to really challenge Bama, the defensive front must pressure Ty Simpson (Bama QB).
    • “If Ty Simpson gets time, he will cook the Missouri Tigers.” — Bud (43:10)
• Alabama’s Approach:
  • Tom would start aggressive, throwing to take a lead and force Mizzou out of their comfort zone, instead of trying to ‘establish the run’. (45:49)
  • Ty Simpson is seen as trustworthy, but Missouri’s front needs to get home — Bama’s receivers can’t be covered all day.
• Consensus:
  • “Missouri could absolutely win… we find out this week if they’re great.” — Tom (46:46)

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F. Arizona State at Utah (49:45–56:27)

• Night game, hostile environment at Utah cited as a real factor.
• Matchup Points:
  • Utah plays a lot of man coverage; concern over containing Jordan Tyson (elite ASU WR).
  • Both offenses led more by defense than any unit; Utah’s O-line play in focus after being dominated by Texas Tech.
  • Arizona State’s road defensive struggles; if they can’t stop Utah’s ground game, trouble looms.
    • “All comes down to whether Utah can run the football or not. … I do not trust Ampierre yet in a game he has to put the team on his back.” — Danny (55:23)
  • If ASU wins, they become heavy favorites for a Big 12 Championship berth.

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G. USF at North Texas (G5 Spotlight) (56:36–59:38)

• North Texas remains untested, but Messmaker has excelled at QB.
• USF more battle-tested, with a win at Florida and experience versus tough opponents.
• Game expected to be a high-scoring shootout; defenses may not be able to get many stops.
  • “If you watch USF … their defense gives up a lot of big plays and North Texas offensively has been able to scheme up a pretty good amount of big plays. … This is going to be a shootout.” — Tom (57:52–58:34)
• Future of Messmaker and coaches in the transfer/portal carousel is noted.

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H. Auburn vs. Georgia ("Anxiety Bowl") (60:33–65:58)

• Both fanbases “freaking out” if they lose; losers might spiral.
• Auburn's only shot is a low-scoring rock fight due to severe QB limitations.
  • “If Auburn wins the football game, it’s for vibes reasons, right?” — Bud (64:44)
• Defense and turnovers called key; Georgia seen as having slightly more faith despite their own imperfections.

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I. Other Anxiety Games / Noteworthy Matchups (65:58–68:41)

• LSU vs. South Carolina: LSU at home, but a dangerous spot if South Carolina’s offense continues improvement.
• Texas A&M vs. Florida: Aggies must win before a tough road stretch; Florida’s QB (Lagway) is the x-factor.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the Arch Manning Discourse:

  • “A lot of it was just Nico playing football, just making plays with his legs… I'm buying Nico.” — Danny (08:33)
  • “If you’re the editor on that, maybe let's give one more game. He actually, it really wasn't his fault against Florida.” — Bud (06:11)

• Big Game Vibes:

  • “Real Red River Shootout goes four and a half hours, starts at 12 and ends up at about halftime at the 3:30.” — Chip (34:19)
  • “Thank you for saying shootout, by the way. Oh, no, we don’t … this is not a politically correct podcast. It’s the Red River Shootout.” — Tom (34:32)

• Expert Analysis, Entertaining Delivery:

  • “If Ty Simpson gets time, he will cook the Missouri Tigers.” — Bud (43:10)
  • “If the lag way that was there last week is the lag way they have the rest of the season, Florida is going to catch a few more pelts.” — Tom (68:22)
  • “If Auburn wins the football game, it’s for vibes reasons, right? Correct.” (64:44)

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Important Segment Timestamps

• Market Watch / Day Trading Danny: 02:44–16:26
• Indiana at Oregon: 18:10–24:52
• Oklahoma-Texas Red River Shootout: 28:27–41:08
• Alabama at Missouri: 40:12–47:55
• Arizona State at Utah: 49:45–56:27
• USF at North Texas: 56:36–59:38
• Auburn vs. Georgia ("Anxiety Bowl"): 60:33–65:58

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Tone and Language

• Insightful, lively, and irreverent
• Hosts play off each other with banter but always get back to sharp football analysis
• Not afraid to needle each other or poke fun at teams, coaches, or even their own analysis

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Final Takeaways

• This week’s matchups are as much about coaching choices, quarterback questions, and trenches as overall talent.
• Oklahoma-Texas and Alabama-Missouri figure as pivotal tests for playoff aspirations and future narratives.
• The Group of Five races continue to provide must-see, high-scoring games with rising star QBs.
• Watch for upsets, chaos, and Anxiety Bowls — and expect the Cover 3 crew to break it all down next week.

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For the full experience, listen to the episode, but this summary covers all major insights and moments from the show.

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

Welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast.

[C]

With your hosts, Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny and Bud Elliott. It's your call for the best college football coverage from national signing day to.

[B]

The national championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the COVID 3 podcast.

[A]

And welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Kelly, that's Bud Elliott, that's Danny Cannell. I'm Chip Patterson, Cover you [e-mail] cover3 and everywhere you get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that. Subscribe SM can come and join us in the chat, AKA the Covered three tailgate. We're concerned about Florida's refractory period. And you know what, Joey, maybe I am too. You know, you got, you gotta kind of reload that musket. You're headed to Texas A and M. And yeah, maybe we will have a little bit of time for Texas A and M in Florida on an absolutely loaded Wednesday edition of the Big Game Breakdown. Now, if you want to be able to get a deep dive on the biggest game of the weekend, Indiana's trip out to Oregon. We did do that on Tuesday show on CBS Sports Network. Available wherever you get your podcast [e-mail] cover3. We did Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State, Illinois, USC, Michigan, maybe a few more notes on those matchups here, but also deep dives on Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Missouri, Arizona State, Utah, and so much more with a ton of big games on deck. Well, we got to get to the business at hand. And on Wednesdays, that means checking in with the market. So let's hear from day trading Danny.

[D]

All right, markets open. Here we go. Ding, ding, ding. The bell is rung. They tell you not to make emotional trades. That's one of the. That's a lesson you'll learn when you're day trading. You don't want to get too heated. You don't want to get desperate. This might be what you call an emotional trade because I was so upset and fired up over a take that the college football world thankfully put back in its place. Yesterday, Arch Manning was declared a flop by one Will Leach of the New York Times. That dude's a clown, by the way, guy that started Deadspin. I mean, this is where you have to do a little bit of research because I think he got exactly what he was looking for. But when you have 11 touchdowns, five interceptions, you're leading the team in Russian, you are far from a flop. I'm going to buy up some Arch Manning, what is going to be a low point of his career when he's been declared a flop. Now's the time to buy Arch Manning. It's almost setting up again. I don't know if this happens against Oklahoma's defense.

[B]

They're really good.

[D]

So this is a long term play because coming into the season, I was saying pump the brakes on Arch Manning. But now that we've gone so far the other way and everybody's like, oh, he's a flop, he's a bust, whatever you want to call it, it's time to buy your Arch Manning. And I'm going to do that right here.

[C]

I am so happy you brought this up because I have some thoughts about all of this. Danny, can I ask you a question?

[D]

Yes.

[C]

Did you read the column?

[D]

I did.

[C]

And you thought it was that bad?

[A]

I did.

[D]

When he said his name is synonymous with failure.

[C]

Did you read the whole column?

[D]

I read it all.

[C]

I read it all because I saw so much negative reaction to that tweet on Twitter yesterday from the Athletic that I was like, okay, well, I gotta read it. And I thought it was the most inoffensive column of all time. I think all Will wrote was that this is the first time we've had a college player who was getting all these advertisements and sponsorships before we ever really saw him play. And he has struggled to start. So in that sense, he's the first flop because he hasn't lived up to the hype which surrounded him. And then I thought there was a whole hell of a lot of performative righteousness on social media where everybody felt like they had the dunk on it while yelling at the athletic for doing something for engagement. While they're all on their social media channels doing it for engagement. I, I, okay, I, I thought it was a perfectly milquetoast column and everybody's just kind of getting their pants in a bunch over it.

[B]

I suspect a lot of this was written before last week's game, and if you had published it before last week's game, I think it's kind of fine. But, like, if you watch last week's game, that is like, super majority. The blame needs to go on the offensive line for Texas and not Arch. I mean, he's navigating some really dirty pockets. I thought we did a good job on Saturday night of pointing it out. Like, guys like Texas offensive line is getting whipped like, big time. They had a kid who had a past, you know, rush or past blocking grade of zero. Like, there's a lot of times where there's just dudes in his face. You know, he didn't play perfect. Right. But I don't know many who, like, we talked about the gesture on the recruiting hour, some with Ivan's, which you guys can now find in our feed. But I mean, that's like, bottom quartile offensive line play in the acc or, sorry, in the sec.

[A]

Shoot.

[B]

Maybe the acc. Like, it's that bad.

[A]

Well, nope, sorry. I can show you we don't have to drop.

[B]

Yeah, there's a couple in ACC that, that are really, like, not before quality. But I mean, if you're the editor on that, maybe you're like, I don't know, man. Like, maybe let's give one more game. He actually, it really wasn't his fault against Florida, but I agree the column wasn't that bad. I think the timing was poor.

[D]

But we've seen flops before. He said this is the first flop we've seen.

[C]

The context is it's the first flop of the modern nil era where the player is like a commercial superstar before he's played a snap.

[A]

Hey, listen, I saw DJU at Fansville.

[C]

Yes, but DJ was a known commodity. Dj, you got run out of Clemson for not being good.

[A]

No, but it was at Clemson. Yeah, it was before he had done.

[C]

Okay, true, true, but that's, that's a good point. He wasn't a Dr. Pepper commercial. How many Warby Parker commercials are you seeing every Saturday? Yeah, how many other ads are you seeing every Saturday? It's different. Like, DJU was in one commercial.

[A]

I agree with, I think.

[C]

I'm not, I'm not arguing that he's correct.

[D]

Yosef writer defending writer.

[C]

No, I'm not, I don't, I don't agree, I don't agree with Will's overall premise. I don't. I just think the reaction to it is laughable in that, I mean, we're kind of doing it right now. They're talking about how the Athletic was doing it to get engagement. Everybody's like, if you're filming a TikTok about how the Athletic is, you know, rage baiting and doing engagement about it, you're doing the same damn thing. I don't know who needs to hear that, but it's true.

[A]

I just like, from the market perspective that Danny's created an incredible middle, you know, where he is buying and selling Arch Manning. Like, if, if we are to detail the trading of his office right now, he has created a wide middle of Arch Manning performance. That's a realistic landing spot, you know.

[B]

Right.

[A]

Yeah. Like, if we're going, he's not, you know, come in the preseason. Why are we giving him the Heisman Trophy? He hasn't played that much. He. And now we're coming in before Red river, which, I mean, look, if you want to wish cast it this narrative, like, we could have egg on face if he comes out there and we've, we'll, we'll be breaking down the game later. Like, I've got some ideas of ways that you could maybe change the approach and have some success and utilize the best while masking the worst, but we can get to that in a little bit. I, I, I like the position, Danny. If everyone's trying to, everyone's trying to bag on him. Let's, let's create a big middle for Arch Manning.

[C]

There we go.

[D]

I'm buying up some Arch Manning stock. We'll see if it can pay off. Maybe I should dabble in some Warby Parker as well in case he does get hot. Maybe it'll sell some glasses. All right, I'm gonna buy another quarterback now. This one might be a little bit too late, but I still think people are curious to see if this thing can continue. Another, another quarterback who probably was sold a lot this season and last. Give me some Nico Ticker symbol N I C O On the nasdaq. Nico has five total touchdowns against Penn State. The biggest surprise of the season. The biggest surprise upset a lot of it. I know Jerry. I love Jerry. I know a lot of it was on, oh, this is a great new game plan. A lot of it was just Nico playing football, like, just making plays with his legs when they were there, getting outside the pocket. I'm Buying Nico could pull off the upset this weekend and he's lancing as just an eight point underdog because guess who I am selling. I'm selling Aiden Chiles who might be losing his job. Jonathan Smith might be selling the. The Aiden Child stock as we speak was taken out of their last game. He has been struggling mightily. Couple picks. I wonder what this direction goes. Did you guys see Aiden Chiles when he was asked about the fans and East Lansing home field advance?

[B]

Was that AI? Because like I, I really am.

[D]

I hope it was AI deep.

[A]

We might have a deep bag.

[D]

I mean they are getting really good. But he said I thought it wasn't that offensive where it felt like it was AI. I felt like it might been a player who's disgruntled with his own fan base and I don't care what our fans think. Like that's, that's the way I took it. See if you can find if it's real or not. Because I think if it was you'd be like screw the fans and like flip up the middle finger or something like that. If it was AI, I thought it was a player who, who's kind of like out with his fan base.

[B]

I'm still buying Aiden Child. I, I think like Michigan State's offensive line injury situation is. Is rough. If he wants to hit the portal, a guy will make a lot of money this offseason.

[C]

He was pretty rough in that like.

[B]

You put him on Auburn. Hugh freezes not in the hot seat.

[D]

Oh, it's a good take.

[B]

I like I would have him over Jackson Arnold 10 out of 10 times. Like I was playing around this morning with tail the tape type stuff. So who would you take? D line Georgia, Auburn, Auburn. Who would you take? O line Georgia, Auburn.

[A]

Auburn.

[B]

Right. Quarterbacks like the main difference. I don't even think that. What's that, that kid in Georgia is that good. It's just like they don't have a QB at all at Auburn. I don't know. Sorry. Sorry to derail this.

[D]

I was just. No, it's good.

[C]

When are we going to be able to trade players for rev share money? Like when is Auburn going to be able to send Michigan state an extra 750 grand to trade for Aiden Chiles in the middle of the season?

[D]

That'd be great. I don't think it's that far off. I think within, I think within five years you might be able to see that happen.

[A]

I don't know. We just, I mean like we've, we've got a Lot of games to get to. So we weren't going to do transfer portal news in a little bit. But like, we're just seeing. We are seeing movement becoming more restrictive with this, like change of the transfer portal. I don't think we're having a trade deadline in college football anytime soon.

[B]

5 years.

[D]

Give it some time.

[B]

We do. It'd be really fun.

[D]

All right, I'll roll through a couple of these games.

[A]

We're not. We can't do transfer portal. We can't do that. Reportedly, the quarterbacks coach at North Carolina has been been suspended for handing out sideline passes. You know, Jeremy Pruitt call coming from inside the house. Four calls. You know, we can discuss all that recklessly at another time.

[D]

We had some fun yesterday drafting group of five teams that is going to actually air during the halftime of the Thursday night game. So you guys have to make sure you check out that. But as we were doing that, I'm gonna buy up some. Drew Messmaker, north Texas quarterback. 11 touchdowns, one intercept, zero interception. Excuse me. He's been perfect on the year for North Texas. Buying North Texas as a very, very live team. I think do they have the best odds right now because they catch USF at home here coming up. They have probably the smoothest path to get there. So I'm buying Drew Messamaker as the quarterback who can get North Texas into the College Football Playoff.

[A]

It's got to be him.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

I would draft North Texas if we could, like, perhaps draft, you know, like G5 teams. That'd be cool. Yeah.

[D]

Somehow that one slipped through the radar. You have to watch.

[C]

I wouldn't let them get through the first round.

[B]

Definitely not.

[C]

That's right.

[D]

One more buy, one more sell. I might be a homer. I'm buying Tommy Castellanos. I'm buying the Knowles. I think this is the biggest game of Mike Norvell's career with Pitt coming to town with a quarterback who just stepped into that lineup for Eli Holstein. He comes in, looks really good against Boston College. This is one of those backs against the wall. I don't think this team is the same as last year team. Some people already wondering that. I think Tommy Castellanos gets it done. I think the defense steps up. I'm buying Florida State, Tommy Castellanos, everything. Seminoles. I'm buying right now. When you can buy low. Tom wants to go. He wants. He wants to sell it so bad. I could hear him just, just holding back.

[C]

No, I. I fell in love with the program last week. Fell in love with the people.

[A]

I was gonna say. Is that a garnet gold shirt?

[B]

So.

[D]

That'S a great shirt.

[B]

Norvell teams are 8 and 17 after a loss. So he is a good job getting the bounce back.

[D]

Yeah.

[C]

A lot of you from the year where they lost all the games.

[A]

Well, here's the thing. It's really hard to be good after a loss if all of the games afterwards are all lost.

[D]

That is true. Slightly skewed last one. I'm selling. I'm selling Bo Pribula, who's been a great story. And Penn State fans have been all, oh, my gosh, maybe we'd be winning if we had Bo Pribula there as our quarterback. I think we're seeing a similar situation to what we saw last week where Vanderbilt was a hype team and, oh, they could do it. They could be that team. I think Alabama puts the clamps down. I think Alabama scores a bunch of points. I don't know if Mod Hardy can carry that Missouri offense all by himself. I think this is where the run comes to a close. So I will sell my Bo Pribula stock.

[A]

Great time to sell. If. I mean, if. If your projections are correct, then now's the time to do it.

[D]

Little bit fraudulent. Little bit fraudulent. Missouri's resume up to this point, I.

[A]

Mean, they got more power, five wins than Texas or Penn State.

[D]

That's true. I'm okay. I have them in my top 12. I think. I think I had them in there. I mean, I'm not saying they're as fraudulent as those teams. At least we've seen them. I think they're a top 25 team. But anybody that has them in that conversation for the top of the sec, Bama, A and M, I'm not buying them there. I'm selling them here.

[A]

When we get to this stage of the season, I just. I throw so much of myself at every single week that two weeks can feel like half a year. And because they were off last week and played UMass the week before and then the result before that was what, 29, 20 over South Carolina, you know, not best performance, but it does feel like it has been a long time since I've seen Mizzou humming in the way that kind of got. Got me feeling some kind of way, but they. Maybe they can flip the switch. Maybe they've been waiting. They've. They've had all eyes on Alabama. Alabama's had some. Some monsters to get through. It'll be a. It'd be be a lot for Beau Pribula if he can answer the call and prove you wrong. But if you prove them right, stock price definitely not going to be any higher than that. All right. Any anything else?

[D]

Markets closed.

[A]

Markets closed. All right. Coming up on the other side, we turn our attention to a loaded Week 7 slate with some of our matchups to watch X Factors and more next. This message may be shocking to many millennials. If you are one, you might want to sit down. Right now, loads of people are searching the following on low rise jeans, halter top, velour tracksuit, hookah shell necklace, disc belt. You likely place these in the dark of your closet in 2004, never to be seen again. But if you can find it in yourself to dust them off, there are a lot of people who will give you money for them. Sell on Depop where Taste Recognizes Taste.

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[A]

COVID three Podcast Thursdays are for our best bets. On Wednesdays we want to take you inside the matchup. The way that we're seeing the game. We call it Big Game Breakdown. Of course, as always for those who don't get a chance to watch us live on CBS Sports Network, we've got a great live audience [e-mail] cover 3. We always encourage you to go and check out but also want to make sure during Big Game Breakdown since we've got some big old games in the Big Ten, want to give a chance to any offer any insights or any thoughts that did not make it in the constraints of of linear television. For the let's start with the Indiana, Oregon side of things. Was there any piece of this that that you've as you've continued to chew on this game as you've tried to, you know, put together expert picks or prepare your locks card, anything stand out as a matchup point that that you're burning on right now.

[B]

I mean, d' Angelo Pons needs to be as good as Indiana fans think he is. Right. They need to be able to, like, find a way to take away decor and more and, you know, hope that the Oregon number two and number three receivers have an off day. Like, the more I think about this like that if Decoran cooks d' Angelo ponds, then it's, it's really night night Hoosiers for me, I think that that's pretty important there. I do think Indiana is really well coached and they have an NFL quarterback. So, like, that's. I think they'll be competitive, you know, for how long?

[A]

I don't know.

[C]

Yeah, I, I think I, I talked about it yesterday during the show, but I do think a lot of this will come down to Indiana's front if they can get pressure on more. Because if they can't, I don't know that they have the secondary, even with Ponds, to really cover all these organ receivers. Yeah.

[B]

So the other thing is just like, can, can they block, right?

[A]

Indiana block? I mean. Yeah, well, their, their offense, I think their offensive line is better now than it was last year when they were playing Ohio State and Notre Dame and Michigan, which are the three games that I circled in my Indiana review of like, okay, they, they couldn't block and it was a problem. And Kurt Signetti told us, he was like, that's why we went into the portal. So. And we tried to get bigger, we tried to get more talented. They've got like, not everybody's a blue chip. Not everybody is, you know, from a power conference in terms of the transfers. But I think their offensive line is better suited right now for the jump up in weight class than where they were last year in those matchups.

[C]

I agree enough. But I agree, right?

[D]

That's the question I have. And the biggest upgrade I thought with Mendoza was mobility. Curtis work really was limited in what he could do with his legs. Mendoza is more mobile. So if they do struggle to protect him, which I kind of think they will, at least they've got somebody can get out of trouble or they can move the pocket a little more effectively.

[A]

Curtis Rourke had it before, like 19 injuries, including Ohio.

[C]

Curtis Rourke, real one.

[A]

Right.

[D]

I don't even know. Did he have an ACL?

[B]

I mean, I, I think it was.

[C]

Just bone on bone ground every single time.

[A]

Curtis Rourke, you're a hero. I, I am very, very much so. In the first half of the Oregon game against Penn State, what, three points on the board, right? Is that Penn State good or, you know, can Indiana. Like, what can Indiana take to be able to, you know, is that the mentality that Oregon was taken where they just figured it was going to be a low scoring game and they were going to play within themselves and not try to open themselves up for mistakes? It was not a. We gave Dante Moore a lot of credit for the moments that we saw and the throws that he made. The overall body of work for Oregon against Penn State was not dominant.

[B]

I think Penn State is a good team who totally no showed ucla. Yes, it happens sometimes. Like, I don't want to give UCLA a ton of credit for that. I think Penn State really no show that game. So I do. I do still give Oregon credit for what they did to Penn State.

[A]

And again, not to step too much on the betting side of this because a simple dummy who went to UNC here, but, I mean, won't a model react by downgrading Oregon based on the following result? Even if it's on some level, like, you can, you can manually go in there and try to apply the changes that you're talking about, but if it is just a straight model, Oregon is going to take a knock based on what happened to Penn State against ucla.

[B]

Yeah, I, I do think it kind of evens out over the course of the season.

[A]

And I, I think right now what you're gonna see could. Could be a little bit of a, you know, just a glitch in the matrix, so to speak.

[B]

I. I think it's. I think it's possible. You know, models are. Are definitely good to use. You know, models are very accurate overall. Models also have this Indiana Team 5 and Ole Miss 6 in the country.

[A]

Right. Because Indiana is way better than Ole Miss, obviously.

[B]

Right? Well, yes, and they're essentially just the same team, you know, but you could adjust or back up if you think Penn State just totally no showed.

[A]

Right.

[B]

Maybe we'll see if I did that on Thursday. I don't know.

[C]

But.

[B]

I think Indiana's good. I just, you know, how do they hold up when they face a team with, like, real athletes on the line of scrimmage, kind of 212 degrees thing. Right. Water and boil at 210. It boils to 212. There's a lot of stuff you can do against a certain level of athlete, long line of scrimmage and stuff. It just won't work against a different level of athlete. And Oregon has some pros, so we'll see how they hold up.

[C]

Yep.

[B]

Although honestly, Illinois has some pros on the D line too. Illinois just had nobody who can cover in that game due to injury. So like they got it didn't really matter.

[A]

Well, it was.

[B]

Iowa does not.

[A]

That's what Ryan Day said a little bit concerning.

[B]

Like I don't think Iowa's dudes on defense this year and Indiana did not have a great game there.

[A]

Ryan Day said that he couldn't take anything away from Indiana, Illinois because it was just like the, the way the, the game script, the, the leverage of the contest. Like it, it just, it flipped so fast. There wasn't a lot. At least this is what, you know, take Ryan Day.

[C]

I respectfully disagree with Ryan. I think there's a lot of stuff he could take away from that game with what was going on up front, not what was going on behind, but with what was going on up front. I think there's a lot he could learn from. From what Indiana did. Got it because Indiana learned it from Duke.

[A]

Interesting. What about that Ohio State, Illinois game? Anything else?

[C]

Line, I buy a billion. Ohio State really ain't built for this. They can't handle what's coming to them in champagne. It's going to be early. They're going to have the crust in their eyes still. It's an orange out. Luke Altmire is going to probably throw for 507 touchdowns.

[A]

Listen. And that, that 63 to 56 loss is going to hurt, but you'll cover the spread and you'll hit the team total over and usc, Michigan. Anything else? I mean we. Any more availability notes?

[B]

I haven't seen any.

[C]

I haven't heard any updates yet. Yeah, and I mean, all I know is Lincoln is still complaining about a holding call that the refs missed two weeks ago. So, I mean, focused.

[B]

Eye on the.

[D]

Ball this week, folks. It's like he complained about the kick times. Oh boy. I might be switching my thought process on some picks we're doing later.

[B]

It's like, God, you take the checks, you take the kickoff times.

[A]

Hey, I liked it.

[B]

So it's a business. Ohio State, you know, this weekend, like.

[A]

Danny over on Sirius, your colleague Chris Budden had that clip about how she.

[D]

Oh yeah.

[A]

Run through a wall if. If another Big Ten coach complains. Yeah, I think John Wilner, the excellent west coast scribe was like, well, get ready because USC has to go past the Rockies two more times. Insurance set.

[D]

They even got a new plane. They got a new plane.

[A]

Come on.

[B]

Still, I thought that was a good clip by her. By the way. Like, I'm not saying the travel doesn't Matter, but stop bitching about it.

[D]

Yeah, right.

[C]

Everybody's got to do it.

[B]

You guys had a map, you took the checks to join this league.

[A]

I mean, Danny, we talked about that the other week when we were put on the spot. Like, hey, does he have anything complaining about kickoff times? And that wasn't even like a travel kickoff times. It was like, we never get a night game. It's like, no, you, this is what happens. This is you get the revenue and then you're told when to play.

[B]

Can we give some credit here to Jed Fish who probably has the most like serious gripe about the travel stuff this year and yet doesn't bring it up and doesn't about it.

[A]

Yeah, I'm always down to give credit. Jed Fish.

[B]

Yeah, like Washington's travel schedule is way harder than USC's and you don't hear Jed complaining about it.

[C]

Seattle's like a million miles away from everything, right?

[A]

It's Canada. I mean, you fly. Listen, you've. I fly to Seattle and then when I'm going from to Seattle to Vancouver, I take a train. Basically southern Canada. All right, our eyes obviously will be main screen Indiana at Oregon. That is what you need to have because this Saturday at 3:30 Eastern on CBS, it's big time. The top ten matchup in Eugene featuring two of the most potent offenses in college football. The seventh ranked Indiana Hoosiers paying a visit to the third ranked Oregon Ducks. State Farm College football today gets Everything started at 2:30 Saturday on CBS and streaming on Paramount Plus. So again, it is a loaded day. That'll be on your main screen. Then over here on your little side screen, you're going to be looking at corn dogs. You're going to be looking at big text. You're going to be looking at that big dumb golden hat. You're going to be looking. Hey, listen, power rank. I, I think the Illibuck Trophy is cooler than the Golden Hat. I think that the ax is cooler than the Golden Hat. I think I can get to 5. I think the Cannon is cooler than the Golden Hat. I think the Golden Hat's not even a top two item associated with the Red River Shootout.

[C]

Big tax and what?

[A]

Corn dogs.

[C]

I thought corn dogs were more of an LSU thing.

[A]

Well, I mean Texas State Fair, you know, Texas State Fair in general. It is Oklahoma. It is Texas. Do we think John Matiere plays? Just what do you think? I've got no source reporting on this.

[D]

I say no.

[A]

I say no.

[B]

I say no.

[C]

I say yes.

[D]

Yeah, there you go.

[B]

Played games before with this Kind of thing. If you go back, was it 22 or 21? I think it was his first year there where they had Gabriel like coming out in the pregame stuff and like we, we absolutely knew from something inside the program that he was not playing. So like we were sitting there watching like, oh, this is cute, right? Like, this is interesting. The like the lengths they're going to go. Like for what though, right? Like, are you gonna fake Texas out an hour before the game when they come out for warm ups? Really? Are they going to change their game plan that much?

[A]

Only Mike Leach did that and he actually did do that when he dropped the fake script.

[D]

Yes.

[C]

And that was brilliant.

[A]

Yeah.

[D]

They did go. Did you see? They went. Indoor practice facility closed off. Couldn't happen because the weather.

[C]

Right, Danny?

[D]

Yeah, yeah, it was too hot. It was so hot outside he wanted him in the air conditioning. I don't know. All I do know is that if you do lose that game and you don't have John Mateer and I don't even know if this Cummins into Brent Venables space if he's thinking about this. But if you do lose the game, you do have John Matiere. The committee does take that into consideration. They could look at and be like, well, they were close and they didn't even have John Mateer. The loss may not look as bad. So I think it might even be the wise thing for both John Matier for his long term health, be able to come back and play without any issues. And I also think it's probably better for Oklahoma if you do lose the game. It doesn't look as bad if you don't have your starter.

[C]

It's a hell of a system we've made for ourselves. I. Yeah, I, I don't know. Like, I Obviously mater playing would be a huge boost for Oklahoma. I just don't know if it changes what I expect this game to be that much. Because I don't think this is going to be your kind of 42 to 41 Red river shootout kind of deal. Right. I think this is going to be a very sluggish, rock fighty kind of, you know, sumo wrestling match. Because I know Texas's defense struggled last week against Florida. DJ Lagway just looked like the NFL guy we all thought he was and we'd been waiting for and he kind of picked him apart. And I think Florida's offensive line played very well, but I still think Texas's defense is very good and I do not think Oklahoma's offensive line is at the same level as Florida's. And I think that would be a serious problem for the Oklahoma offense with or without material, but I think it's a bigger problem without him. And then on the flip side, I just don't have a whole lot of faith in this Texas offense led by that flop it quarterback Arch Manning against the Sooner's defense. Because I mean if, if you look at Texas's offense on the year, the average offensive success rate for teams in the FBS level is 43.8%. Texas has beat that number once in a game all year. That was against Sam Houston. So even in the San Jose State game, in the UTEP game, they were below 43.8% success rates. Like this offense has not been good. The offensive line has been bad. The receivers aren't really getting open. The running backs really don't have much of a prayer because the offensive line is bad. And also they just never hand off to him. And then Arch Manning has really struggled behind that line. So I just feel like this is going to be a game that is very low scoring and is going to come down to which quarterback messes up the least. And I feel like that's where Matier really comes in because Mattier has plenty of whoopsie daisy to him. But I do feel like of the three possibilities he has the most magician to him to get out of a bad spot too.

[B]

Yeah, I Tom's a sharp dude and I thought like hey guys, Oklahoma's offensive line is not very good either and Florida's is a lot better. I thought it was gonna be a banger of a point. I haven't heard anybody else make that immediate all week. Tom just made it. Yes, exactly. Like for all the idea that Oklahoma can probably destroy the Texas offensive line, I agree. Oklahoma upgraded its offensive line from like pretty bad to below average. It's not a good O line yet. Like they've got a lot of young guys. The vets they are playing aren't really anything special. It's not a top half offensive line in the SEC in my opinion. Right. It what A M Florida, Bama, Georgia, Ole Miss, maybe Mizzou.

[C]

We'll find out this week.

[B]

Probably Tennessee. I would take over Oklahoma's offensive line, honestly. Maybe Auburn. I just think Arnold's like really, really like a detriment to that off.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

Anyway, I think Texas can can really limit what Oklahoma does here. Especially if Hawkins plays. Man, if Hawkins plays. Guys, they shut Kent State out and still couldn't cover. He's not.

[D]

His stat line was A little misleading.

[B]

If you're an agent watching that ball game, you're like, oh man, Oklahoma's gonna have to break the bank for a transfer next year if Mater decides to go pro.

[C]

Because that kid ain't it.

[B]

I mean, maybe he will turn into something, but I don't know.

[D]

Well, we're not going to know until 3:35 when the ball is kicked and Oklahoma takes the field.

[A]

Right.

[D]

Because Mater was dressed out last week, like.

[B]

Well, I think we will know, but I don't know if the public's going to know. Like some. Somebody will leak that earlier for sure and the line will move, no doubt.

[A]

Because we already had the three to one and a half move. Yeah.

[C]

The most important question is because, Danny, you mentioned this is a 3:30 start. Do you guys miss when this was a noon start? I liked it better when it was a noon start.

[A]

Yes, unquestionably.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Because it would ruin the rest of the day. A real Red river shootout goes four and a half hours, starts at 12 and ends up at about halftime at the 3:30.

[B]

Thank you for saying shootout, by the way.

[C]

Yeah, yeah. Oh, no, we don't know. This is not a politically correct podcast. It's the Red River Shootout.

[A]

We have determined that a long time ago. We'll follow all legalese, but I think that we, we, we understand what we were, what we're here to do, speak to the fans. I think there is a path for Texas, even with a offensive line that is a, a liability to still be able to score points against this Oklahoma defense. They need Arch Manning to be Casey Thompson. Okay, follow me here. There was a Texas team that had Bijan Robinson as a 1000 yard rusher and had Xavier Worthy as the leading receiver. And that Texas team went 5 and 7. But that Texas team showed up to this game ready to play and Casey Thompson was the quarterback. And that what you do behind, in my opinion and from my notes, 2021 Texas offensive line was bad. That's how you have Bijan Robinson, Xavier Worthy and still go 5 and 7 because Casey Thompson wasn't it and he didn't have any time. But what they did in this game was that they just limited the amount of time that Thompson was asked to hold the ball and sit back there and diagnose it. It's get the ball out early, move them around a little bit. Like Arch Manning's average depth of target. Arch Manning throwing all these deep balls, trying to get 15 points on just one deep shot. Like, let's just forget trying to test whether Your Texas offensive line is going to hold up against the rest of that nasty Oklahoma defensive front. Let's test their open field tackling. I mean, last time I checked, the reason why we had Texas number one is because the skill players were some dudes. Now our chest, to be able to hit the short passes, you know, he's got to be able to deliver it on time. But man, that just seems like the path is, let's get away from the line of scrimmage, let's work this thing on the perimeter. And it might not be successful all the time, but if the game is going to be as much of a rock fight as many are expecting, including the total in the low 40s, then one or two explosive plays can totally change the game. If I'm Texas, let's. Let's get things on the move. Let's get things on the perimeter. Let's stop testing our offensive line. Let's start testing Oklahoma's open field tackling. There you go, Steve, right there for you. I am. I know you got all this coaching continuity. We had five years together, but that's. There you go. I got it. Just. Just execute the game plan. That's how you win. What else are going to be the matchup points that end up deciding? This one.

[B]

Texas will need to tackle a little better than it did last week. Yeah, Oklahoma skill guys are pretty good, I think, especially Dion. So, you know, get the ball in his hands, maybe some good things happen. I can Oklahoma actually run the ball on this team? Florida ran it last week. I'd be. I would be surprised if they had a lot of success running it, but maybe you get Hawkins involved more in the run game. That's. That's possible. You know, I don't think he's like unplayably bad, but I think he's like one of the three or four bottom QBs in the SEC. If he's playing, like, I would take him over the Kentucky players and I think that's it. Like, I'd rather have Shapen. Right.

[C]

I.

[B]

Where else would he start in this league? Just Kentucky.

[C]

Kentucky, for sure. Yeah, probably.

[A]

Yeah. Because he's a backup quarterback.

[B]

Well, right.

[C]

Yeah. Yeah.

[B]

Who they hyped a lot last year. Right.

[C]

But they don't.

[A]

They don't need him.

[B]

I don't think you need to score that many points to win if you're Texas. Like, if you gave Texas 20, they're taking it.

[A]

Right.

[B]

If Hawkins plays, I don't think Oklahoma's gonna score 20.

[A]

If Michael Hawkins or Jackson Arnold, who would you rather have.

[C]

That's what I'm saying. There are people that comments saying you might start at Auburn.

[B]

I would say, I'd say that's probably a coin flip.

[A]

Seth Luttrell had an opinion.

[C]

Yeah, we certainly had some opinions on that last year.

[B]

Yeah I guess give me Hawkins over Arnold. There's, there's some upside there that maybe like, like more reps can unlock something or that Jackson doesn't have.

[A]

Yeah but see the thing is you don't need Michael Hawkins to get you to the College Football Playoff. You need Michael Hawkins to win you this game to keep John Matiere healthy for the rest.

[C]

So this game or you need to.

[B]

Be respectable and like lose close in a low scoring game.

[D]

Which does raise.

[B]

The question this Venables throttle down tempo here to limit the number of possessions. So if Hawkins plays do you play slow to try to keep this thing lower scoring, be able to put the blame on which I'm not saying is miscast to be able to put the blame on not having mater. If you play fast it opens up the chance you lose by you know, 17, 20 look like you don't belong. That loss doesn't age well material or not.

[A]

I don't have the tempo stats in front of me but doesn't Oklahoma this year with Arbuckle do a little bit of like green light, yellow light, red light?

[B]

Yeah, they're not like like full bliss tempo. I'm just saying like I would like.

[A]

They will ramp it up if like you know things start to move in that direction. It's a thing they can do. I don't have it penciled in on my mental note card as like the identity of what they do.

[B]

If you are thinking that the committee is going to give you grace for not having mater you need to play into that grace and play slow and limit the scores three and out.

[C]

It's going to take two minutes, damn it.

[D]

Exactly.

[A]

Or earlier in the day it's going to be Alabama going on the road to Missouri. Talked a little bit about the broad pribula of it all. What about the Alabama of it all? Tom, as you're looking at that matchup, what do you think is going to be really important for the Crimson? Todd?

[C]

Can they do what they did last week? Like I know Vandy had missed opportunities in that game but I still think overall Alabama's defense as far as containing Diego Pavia in the quarterback run game was the best I've seen them look while doing it since Kane Womack came to town might even be better than some of the years, Saban was still in charge because I do like Mizzou is going to. They run the ball a lot. It's just kind of who they are. Ahmad Hardy has rushed for at least 100 yards in every single game that Mizzou has played. And I'm just trying to figure out maybe if you're Alabama defensively, are you better off just trying to load the box to stop Hardy and you're willing to give Pribula a little room to maneuver and run around if he has to. And then you're just like, you try to turn this into a game where Pribila either beats you with his legs or arm. Like, do you focus on just removing Hardy from the equation? Because if you do that, I'm not as confident in the Missouri offense's ability to really move the ball that effectively because as Danny mentioned when he was selling all his Bo Pribula stock earlier in the show, like, if you look at his numbers against Louisiana and South Carolina, not bad. But they still looked far more ordinary than they had in the first couple of games. And then last week against UMass. But Ryan Day talked about not taking anything from Indiana, Illinois seriously. Never take anything seriously that you see team do against UMass. That is 100 a fact. It does not count. So is Pribula going to be able to beat this team on his own? I. I'm not so sure that he can. So I do feel like that's probably what Alabama's approach is going to be defensively.

[D]

As. I think it should be smart.

[B]

Go ahead, Danny.

[D]

I think it's Missouri's defense. I mean, Missouri is one of those teams. They're both top four and total defense, total offense. Like they have this very balanced team. They've got to slow down. Ty Simpson, who has been hitting the vertical pass game, he likes to take his shots. Vanderbilt did get one last week. They're gonna have to, you know, either get one of those interceptions, force a turnover somehow, but they have to figure out a way to slow down Alabama's offense, which I watched the Kansas game and Kansas was able to move the ball really effectively against Missouri's defense. And there was even a couple plays at the end where Jalen Daniels made a beautiful plan. A fourth down receiver drops it. They were still getting carved up. That to me is the matchup. I think that could really heavily favor Alabama.

[C]

So did South Carolina.

[B]

So the the only four guys from Missouri who have played more than 150 snaps on defense are there four DBs. None of them have a PFF grade in the 70s. If Ty Simpson gets time, he will cook the Missouri Tigers.

[A]

But Missouri's defensive front is strength of.

[B]

They have got to get home.

[C]

Yes.

[B]

Like, those guys need to have a day. I mean, look, Missouri's pass rush is a lot better than Georgia's, and it's better than Florida State's. Florida State did not get home, but they at least pressured Simpson and made him feel a little bit uncomfortable. You know, Georgia didn't get home on Simpson really at all. They've got to really get home on Ty Simpson. Like that. That. Because in a clean pocket, Missouri's dbs cannot cover Alabama's guys. That's just not going to happen. Like, we've already seen Kansas's dudes and South Carolina's dudes, and South Carolina has one of the worst, you know, receiving cores in the sec. Like, those guys made catches on this group. Bama's guys will kill them if they do not get home. On the flip side, man, I. Bama had a good scoreboard result defensively against Vandy, and they did some good things. Most notably, they forced some timely fumbles in the red zone. But Vandy did move it on him. Yeah, you know, and if you're Missouri, you're watching us that can shoot, we. We can move it on these guys, too. There are some offensive line injuries here that I think really might matter for Missouri. Kaden Green's been banged up. He's one of their more talented guys. I think they have another guy, too, who's worth watching. So be paying attention to that injury report because that there's a lot of teams out there. Starters are good backups, not so much when it comes to the offensive line. And I think Bama's defense is really not. It's good, but just not amazing so far. But maybe it's. Maybe it'll be enough if Missouri's office lines ding duff.

[A]

Is there a team. How many teams do you think you do have offensive line depth to where, you know, you hit a couple injuries and then all of a sudden we're not a Miami.

[C]

There's five at most.

[A]

Yeah, I was gonna say most FBS football teams, you know, things get a little bit hairy in terms of offensive line depth. I think that for Missouri, what you. What can we take away from the opponents that they've taken and apply it to analysis of this game, Some of the offensive success. I don't know if I can take a lot. A lot of that and think that we're going to have a comparable, you know, something I Can copy and paste and expect against Alabama. The defensive front, I think, is like, good, good. So that's. That. That's the first place I'm looking. Does Alabama show up and at the beginning of the game, do they just try and run it with Jam Miller, Right. And just see if they can get that going. Then all of a sudden, maybe that gets stopped and then you start to force, you know, the. The pivot, the counter punch. Then we get to see it. I think it's a really fun coaching matchup. X's and O's, little past the chalk here with these two teams in a tricky spot. Alabama schedule for sure.

[B]

I don't.

[C]

I don't think I come out trying to establish the run in this game. If I'm Alabama, I come out throwing. I want to put them. I want to put them in a hole, then force them to play catch up, because I don't think they can. I mean, I know it's on the road, so maybe they'll take a different approach. But I also think that's. It makes it even more kind of a necessity to be aggressive early.

[D]

And that's where I think you can trust Ty Simpson, where you trust him to take those shots if they're there. If not, he can check it down. He's pretty good. He knows the system very well. He's not going to kill you. I mean, mentioned earlier, he did have the pick, but I thought it was a pretty good decision. Just was a little bit off. You know, he tried to squeeze one in there, but I do think he's pretty. You can trust him. As far as, you know, not turning the ball over egregiously.

[B]

I. I think they can absolutely beat Alabama.

[A]

Oh, yeah. I was gonna say Missouri.

[B]

Like, the chats, like, acting like we're disrespecting Missouri guys. We're talking about how Missouri can absolutely hang with and beat Alabama if things go right.

[C]

Yes.

[B]

Like, that's not disrespect.

[A]

Come on, bud, Thicken up that skin a little bit.

[D]

I'm a little more disrespectful. You can point the finger at me.

[C]

I'll also say, like, I saw the one comment about how we drool over Oregon putting up yards against nobody. Like, Oregon went undefeated and won the Big Ten last year. Mizzou had a very similar start last season and then went to Texas A m and lost 41 to 10. This is the Texas A M game. This is when we find out if they're real. We're not saying they're not. I Think they're good. We find out this week if they're great.

[A]

Missouri could absolutely win. And they would.

[C]

Yeah. They're only three point dogs.

[B]

Are they more not like 12 to 25 range of power ratings or are they like legitimate, like a top 10 type team? Good.

[A]

We'll.

[B]

We'll find out. Yeah, if you spank Alabama, I think you're like a certified top ten team.

[D]

The point spread's bigger than three though, isn't it?

[B]

No, no, it's three.

[A]

Three. Three and a half. Oh my gosh.

[B]

Missouri got bed some more, man.

[D]

Large sock app going.

[B]

What's the number on that? It's three or one. Yeah, I mean like Pinnacles at. At three minus zero five for. For Bama. Some of these shops that'll take really big bets are. Are actually like they're letting you have a Bama 3 pretty cheap.

[A]

And Danny is in conversations with those right now.

[D]

I would keep waiting.

[B]

Maybe it gets Bama 2 and a half.

[C]

2 and a half. Some places heavy juice on the Bama side.

[B]

Just like how many stops can you rely on Bama's defense to get?

[C]

We'll find out.

[A]

We'll find out.

[C]

Yeah. Like I said, I think Missouri's good. We'll find out if it's great. This episode is brought to you by Jack Daniels. Jack Daniels and music are made for each other. They share a rhythm in the craft of making something timeless while being a part of legendary nights. From backyard jams to sold out arenas, there's a song in every toast.

[D]

Please drink responsibly.

[C]

Responsibility.org, jack Daniels and old number seven are registered trademarks. Tennessee whiskey, 40% alcohol by volume. Jack Daniel Distillery, Lynchburg, Tennessee.

[A]

Your fantasy season doesn't end after your draft.

[D]

The fantasy football today podcast is going.

[A]

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[D]

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[A]

What about Saturday night? You know, we, there was, there was a little bit of a moment here where, you know, I felt, felt myself kind of get taken, taken a little bit out of context. So I'm a revisit and I'm gonna say that when I pointed out that the mighty Utah students section can have an impact on the game, I was indicating that they have a larger impact on the game when it is at night under the lights. And guess what we have here? Look at here, little 10:15 Eastern time, kickoff 8:15 local. Is that 10:00am no, it's not 10:00am it's about 10 hours later than 10:00am and you've got a Big 12 title contender, just like last time coming to town. And you've got a chance, not as a student section because you guys showed up big time for the early start. Shout out to your breakfast burritos. You've got a chance to stay in this Big 12 title race because a loss here would be very troubling. And you got an Arizona State team that has found ways to win games which have had imperfect performances. And I know Kenny Dillingham is a big fan of the COVID 3 podcast. Kenneth, you've even said this yourself. And that's why we want competitors. I don't want you playing Tick Tock. I want you to want you to play Prisoners are Catan. You know, like he's.

[D]

It's Class Royale. It's Class Royale.

[C]

Prisoners of Catan. That's not a game.

[D]

It is kind of nerdy though. It is that I know the game the Chip is talking about. It's kind of the, the app version of that game.

[A]

He's, he's cool with his players doing that because then at least you're being a competitor, not just sitting around on Tick Tock Tick Tocks. But I mean, Arizona State still has a Big 12 championship ceiling. So what's our expectation of how these two teams match up?

[B]

Well, Utah plays a boatload of man coverage. Arizona State has a guy who's on the very short list for the argument of best receiver in the country. Right? Or at least best draft eligible guy. Like not, not Jeremiah, obviously. But I mean, Jordan Tyson is really, really good. You know, how's Utah going to handle him? They're going to play that much man. You know, obviously the quarterback for Arizona State, you know, Sam Levitt, he runs the ball a whole lot. Like, can Utah get enough stops here? And conversely, like, Arizona State's defense has not been amazing. Right. So does Utah's offense start to Cook is. Damn. Pierre looking a little healthier, Obviously. He seemed to be okay against the Mountaineers, so, you know, watch there.

[C]

I can't help but think, like, before the Texas Tech game when Chip was, like, calling the musk weak and saying that they were quiet and nerdy and didn't understand football. Like, we were talking about how the battle was going to be Utah's offensive line and the Texas Tech defensive line. And I thought Utah got smoked along the lines of scrimmage in that game. I thought Texas Tech was much better than they are, but that was more for me just kind of establishing the idea that Texas Tech is at a different level there. Yeah.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

Than everybody else in the Big 12. So I don't know how to feel about Utah's offensive line going against this Arizona State team. I think it's probably still pretty good. I do think there's, like, Fano is an NFL guy. The rest of the unit I still have some questions about. So is Arizona State going to be able to have that kind of success that Texas Tech had against this offensive line? Because if you look at these teams so far, the truth is they've been led more by their defense than their offense. I think. Like, I don't think either one of these offenses has been fantastic. I think defensively they've been good. I think Utah, with Devin Dampier has a lot of whoopsie daisy to its offense, which is kind of, you know, parted by design because of what Dan Pier will do. And then on the flip side, can Arizona State run the ball against Utah? Because I don't feel like Arizona State's done a very good job running the football all season long. And if they can't, then, like Bud was talking about, it's going to be kind of on Sam Levitt and Jordan Tyson to get through to the secondary, which does play a lot of man and is something that does legitimately concern me about Utah here. So I don't know. And then one more note. If you look at the numbers, Arizona State's two worst defensive performances came in the two games they were on the road, and now they're on the road.

[B]

If Arizona State wins this ball game, they are extremely likely to. Like, if Arizona State wins this, it's them and Utah. Yeah. The Big 12 championship game is not locked up, but it's pretty locked up, right? I mean, Arizona State, which, you know, doesn't have a conference loss yet, they would be favored in all remaining games except for Texas Tech. Okay. They're gonna be favorite hosting Houston. Arizona State Will be favored at Iowa State. They'll be favored hosting the Mountaineers. They'll be favorite at Colorado. It'll be favored hosting Arizona. If they win this, they're very likely to go to the Big 12 championship game. If they lose this, is Cincinnati the favorite to go?

[A]

No, there is no favorite. There is only who's gonna it's musical chair. I mean it is literally like who ends up when the music stops closest to the chair.

[B]

Like their schedule. They taking care of some business here?

[A]

No, they did not take care of business. They wound up with more points than the opponent. The way that Cincinnati handled the second half against Iowa State cannot be classified.

[B]

It's a Satterfield team. But they are talented.

[A]

They are. They have gifted players. Yes.

[D]

I think this game all comes down to whether Utah can run the football or not.

[A]

Yeah.

[D]

And Arizona State's been really good against the run. I do not trust Ampierre yet. In a game he has to put the team on his back. We really only did one sample size against Texas Tech and the health question marks that were there. He missed practice. How much did that come into play? But based on last year and this season, I don't trust him yet. In a one possession game late mattress Sam Levitt way more. I trust Arizona State way more. Who's been way more battle tested. They've been in a lot of these close games. So I think it's all about Utah. If they can physically, you know, move around Arizona State, run the football, I like Utah a lot. If they can't, this is Arizona State's going to win the game outright.

[A]

This is. This is the non traditional brand bias where I look at Utah football and I have a set of expectations and they might not meet that standard this year. We'll see. This will be a really big game to test it. Especially with the Texas Tech data point standing out as it is Friday night we'll be down in. I think it's Dat Q Stadium. The one what whatever credit union is is there representing the Denton area. Denton area, Credit Union Stadium, something like that.

[C]

It is right off the tongue, whatever it is.

[A]

Yeah. Hey, USF going to play North Texas. North Texas unbeaten overall. And of course they got that shootout back and forth to win against army and conference play. USF has a win against Florida. They have tested themselves against Miami and then they blasted South Carolina State. And then first conference game against Charlotte, same thing. I mean buckle up and get ready for fireworks, right? Who's got the ball last? Who makes a turnover? I mean is it is There any reason not to think that this is going to be. Is this gonna be a wild one?

[B]

Should be. I mean, usf, their run defense has not been great so far this year. So I would say, like, maybe, you know, as much as we like Master Maker, maybe like UNT can stick with the run a little bit better. This should be a really, really fun game to watch. Like, if you got the baseball playoffs on, this is a pretty good second or third, like third screen experience.

[C]

Yeah, I, I think it's going to be electric at Denton Area Teachers Credit Union Stadium for the teachers.

[A]

Let's go. I knew.

[C]

For the educators out there, I do think, like, when you watch, like, clearly USF is far more tested to this point. Right.

[A]

Because that's the thing.

[C]

They played Florida, they've played Miami. It's.

[D]

They won at the Swamp.

[A]

Yeah. Boise, which still might win the.

[C]

So it's like we know far more about the Bulls than we do North Texas to this point. Who is undefeated. But, like, what's the toughest team they've played? Is it army or is it Washington State? This is their biggest test so far. And I do think if you watch usf and a lot of this is skewed by playing much tougher opponents. But, like, their defense gives up a lot of big plays and North Texas offensively has been able to scheme up a pretty good amount of big plays. They're 20th in the country in explosive play rate. Can the Bulls defense kind of keep them from doing that too much? They're not like, the total in this game's like, what, 61, something like that. So I, you know, it's. There's going to be big shots, there's going to be big plays, there's going to be touchdowns. It's just. How many stops can the South Florida defense get? Can North Texas's defense get any stops? This is going to be a shootout. I think it will be very, very fun. And I definitely think that this could be kind of a whoever has the ball last kind of situation. But turnovers. Byron Brown, take care of the football because if you don't, this could snowball on you.

[A]

North Texas games are high scoring, but they are not consistently high scoring. If you've watched it comes in fits and starts, you know, like the offense can kind of shell up for a little bit. You'll get 31 points combined in the first quarter, and then things kind of slow down a little bit. It'll be a. It'll be a bumpy one, but one that I. A ride that I'M signing up and buying tickets for undoubtedly looking forward I mean forget forget third screen let's go main screen. There's a bit be buzzing in Denton.

[D]

By the way the mess to maker market after this season could be robust. Yeah he's a good player I mean.

[A]

If they win this the Eric Morris market.

[D]

Yeah maybe the package deal.

[A]

Yeah a little package deal situation.

[C]

Hello Arkansas.

[A]

Yeah I mean this you got options right there I mean hello Oklahoma State.

[B]

You guys don't think Petrino's gonna get Arkansas? No, no I do.

[D]

So you're assuming they win some games or are you just gonna get it?

[B]

I I the the revenue share number + nil number that I heard on them is confirms everything I thought like I I unless they got a lot more money coming I think they'll go cheap with Petrino.

[A]

I'll think about it.

[C]

If Stanford can get 50 million surely Arkansas can scrounge something up. Surely don't do it again fellas.

[A]

They're ready to be hurt. You were doing tale of the tape earlier, bud. Yeah, so so so Auburn got how many checks on your tale of the tape against Georgia?

[B]

I gave Georgia secondary and linebackers I gave Auburn D line I gave Auburn offensive line I think backs are kind of a push maybe slightly into George I don't think any more special Frazier when he doesn't specials when he doesn't fumble is nice Bowens is a good player receiver is kind of a. I think it's slightly Auburn and then I don't have enough check marks to give to Georgia because Arnold just can't play like I I people are like you know Hugh freeze this he frees that I just think he's chose poorly twice in a row at QB now so I guess that is on him as a head coach but I just don't think Auburn could play at quarterback right now. So you know I think if you're kirby smart if you lose this it's pretty embarrassing to lose Jackson Arnold. Basically what we've seen like Oklahoma fans were right about what they said about him. Based on what I've watched this is bad.

[C]

Yeah like I Auburn defensively needs to force a bunch of turnovers in this game and they need to have the kind of performance they had a couple weeks ago against Texas A M in which I mean they kept themselves the defense is the only reason Auburn was in that game because the offense was just abysmal. And I do feel like it's hard to think that Auburn is going to be able to do much offensively against Georgia, because we saw Tennessee do it. But Auburn doesn't have what Tennessee has on offense. Like, yeah, you can. You can hurt Georgia with like some deep shots. If you have Jackson Arnold, you can't. So, yeah, this is. Auburn needs to make this a low scoring kind of rock fight. And Georgia's offense does not need to be perfect. But I do think offensively they're kind of starting to find a rhythm in what they're able to do and what they're. They're kind of sticking more to what they've been successful with instead of trying some stuff that maybe they weren't. So I do think this is a Auburn obviously must win kind of situation. Georgia also a must win situation. And I do have far more faith in Georgia, even though I do think along the lines of scrimmage. This game is far more even than the records suggest.

[A]

I mean, you said. You said Gunner Stockton was a liability.

[D]

Danny, I don't think he's one of the top quarterbacks in the sec.

[B]

He's not. You're right.

[D]

I trust him more than I trust Jackson Arnold.

[A]

Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.

[D]

But, like, that's. I don't. George's defense, they're just not as dominant as they've been. That's the one thing I wonder if Auburn can push him around. And with Jackson Arnold running the football, that's been something that kind of adds another element that does make it harder to defend. So I'm more curious about what Georgia's defense does against Auburn. Like, they should be able to contain them, but there's a reason this one's only a field goal, too.

[B]

This is the most anxiety ball of the weekend, right?

[A]

100%.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

You are freaking out that the dynasty's over if you lose this every Auburn. If Auburn loses this bad. I think we have an emergency podcast on Sunday.

[A]

Yeah. I. My thoughts on this game when asked Auburn. Yeah. When asked to pick or make projections, it is the least big game breakdown approach that I am having because I don't think, like, I don't know. Well, first of all, Auburn winning this game, but then losing to Mizzou the next week would be funnier. That would be way funnier to gain all of the goodwill and immediately lose it and maybe get thumped by Mizzou. Like 42 to 10 Auburn wins at Jordan Hare. They rush the field, they send Georgia fans into a tailspin, and then you're riding high and then maybe you lose your next two, maybe your next three. Who knows? But that'd be funny. Yeah. This is just A lot of if. How about this? If Auburn wins this football game, I think it is for a lot more vibes reasons than necessarily football reasons. But, you know, I'm the dummy. I'm the vibes coordinator on here. This is. This is a. This is a Jordan Hare Classic right here.

[B]

Wait, if Auburn wins the football game, it's for vibes reasons, right?

[A]

Correct.

[D]

Yes.

[B]

I totally agree.

[C]

Yes.

[A]

Yeah. That. It's like.

[C]

Oh, no.

[A]

Georgia's running backs, who have a fumbling problem. Fumble on the 5. Jackson Arnold runs in a touchdown. Oh, here's a return. It's like a return touchdown. You'll be this. It is the. It is the red zone, third down failures by Georgia offense. That is just kind of rolling through the motions, not quite in sync, you know, it is. It is. It is the anatomy of the upset. We just go through and hit our check marks. And look, if Jackson Arnold doesn't need to be that accurate. Cam Coleman's a phenomenal player. We get a couple superstar grabs along the way. I mean, was it. Was it Treadwell who got the off the helmet catch against Bama? Against Bama.

[B]

No, it was a short Ibadanjo.

[A]

Okay. But it was. It was in that 14:15 run, right?

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

Treadwell was for sure, you know, playing in that game.

[A]

Yeah. It's the Anxiety Bowl. I like that, Bud. There's. There. I don't know, like the. The loser feels horrendous and all you want to do is don't lose any other games that we want to turn our attention to before we get out of here.

[B]

Another Anxiety bowl. Lsu, South Carolina. Oh, if South Carolina goes into Baton Rouge and wins, they fire Brian Kelly.

[A]

I'm not ready to. This is Gamecocks fans. I'm not ready to entertain that scenario, Bud. It's not on my list of realistic outcomes.

[C]

Oh, South Carolina's offense has been looking better.

[A]

No.

[B]

If Sellers has been playing well. Yeah.

[A]

If they beat. Because that's a night kick. Right.

[B]

And we're someone who we'll acknowledge when we're wrong. But I think we were correct about what he was playing like in the bowl game and in the first couple games this year. But he started to see the field better. He's making nice adjustments, like he's really coming around.

[A]

I am not ready to entertain that South Carolina is going into Tiger Stadium for 7:45 Eastern Time kick and winning that football game.

[C]

I don't expect them to, but I do think it's. It's not completely out of the ordinary or out of picture with the way LSU's offense has been playing, I think another game. I know they're undefeated and they're number five in the country, and I've personally been kind of Aggie pilled. Like, the more I watch, the more I'm really liking what I see. But I think Texas A and M at home against Florida is an absolute must win for the Aggies.

[A]

Huh?

[C]

Because like, obviously Florida's coming off the win last week. But more than anything after this, Texas A and M plays three straight on the road. Like, you need to win this to get off to like the kind of 6 and 0 start. So that way if you trip up, I mean, I don't think they would trip up at Arkansas, but is that actually on the road or is that neutral? Anyways. But then you're at LSU and at Mizzou. Like, there's a decent chance you slip up in one of those games and lose. So I feel like you need to win this one to make sure that you still have that breathing room for, like, the SEC title and a playoff berth that large if you fall short of winning the sec. What?

[A]

What are you thinking, Danny?

[D]

I was just saying we've seen it before from A M. Like, it wouldn't be the most surprising. I think they're good, but we've seen it before.

[B]

I think Florida in a way that Texas could not.

[C]

I agree.

[A]

Yeah. Texas A and M's got a pretty good offensive line.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

Like I said, the more I watch them, the more I like that team.

[A]

We are also trusting Florida to back it up again. Like, and I'm saying, like, if you're going to, like, take those steps, if.

[C]

If the lag way that was there last week is the lag way they have the rest of the season, Florida is going to catch a few more pelts.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

God, that'll be fun. A nice little gator reaper. Nothing to play for but ruin everyone else's season.

[C]

Yeah. And they have plenty of chances.

[A]

Let's go. All right. I like that. Okay. Thursday, 11:00am Eastern Time. We will be giving you our best bets for week seven. It is the locks edition of the COVID three podcast. Come and hang out. YouTube.com cover three. You drop the likes, we give you the locks. The locks move lines. You understand how this thing goes. So come and watch live. And you can follow him on Twitter at Tom Frano. You can follow him@Blood Elliot 3. You can follow him at Danny Cano. You can follow me at Chip Patterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much.

[C]

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And also your mom. I've been lusting after William White, who's younger than my son.

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