Big Game Breakdown: Keys To The Game For Top Week 2 Showdowns, More! | Cover 3 College Football

Summary

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Cover 3 College Football Podcast

Episode: Big Game Breakdown: Keys To The Game For Top Week 2 Showdowns, More!

Date: September 3, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Cannell, Bud Elliott

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Overview

This week’s Cover 3 dives deep into keys for the top college football showdowns in Week 2, drawing on Week 1 reactions, early AP Top 25 returns, and the evolving college football landscape (notably NIL and the transfer portal). The team focuses discussion on marquee matchups—Oklahoma-Michigan, Kansas-Missouri, Baylor-SMU, and notable wildcards—while also taking side routes into big-picture themes like Alabama’s NIL reality, shifting power conferences, and coaching hot seats.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Alabama, NIL, and Post-Saban Realities

[01:26 - 08:14]

• AJ McCarron’s Comments on Alabama’s NIL Budget:
  • AJ McCarron recently stated he knows for a fact that Alabama's NIL budget isn't close to the rumored $40 million number. This sparks a discussion about how Alabama is dealing with the new financial arms race in college football.
  • Danny Kanell: “There’s no more Saban discount, where players would go there for less... The days of going 12–0...those are done, not only for Bama but for everybody. Bama...is going to have a really hard time getting used to.” [03:26]
• Constant Moving Target:
  • The backlash among fans and boosters is familiar—crying poor after losses, as seen last when Saban “passed the hat” after losing recruiting battles.
  • Tom Fornelli: “Crying poor after losses is the lamest thing in college football right now.” [06:27]
• Broader Implications:
  • Alabama is in transition with Kalen DeBoer at the helm; it will be a new experience for fans now without a dynasty guarantee.
  • Lighthearted aside: Might Alabama fans let basketball coach Nate Oats walk to refocus resources on football? [08:14]

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2. AP Top 25 Poll Reaction

[09:12 – 17:39]

• Ohio State Ascends, LSU Case for #1:
  • Texas displaced at #1 by Ohio State, but Danny argues LSU deserves to top the poll given a big road win over Clemson, rather than home wins by Ohio State.
  • Danny Kanell: “I wish voters would be more willing to forget preseason expectations...If you’re supposed to just forget everything you saw and just go with what you saw on the field, I thought LSU should have been number one.” [10:31]
• Accusations of Preseason Bias:
  • Tom and Danny debate relative impressiveness of wins and the general voter reluctance to move teams too much early.
  • Tom Fornelli: “If you look closer, a lot of people are starting fresh...Notre Dame was left off three ballots entirely. Alabama fell all the way to 21...Clemson was on everybody’s ballot—for some reason and no lower than 17th.” [13:37]
• Snubs and Bias:
  • Utah’s clinical late-night performance overlooked; USF similarly underappreciated for dominating Boise State.
  • Tom Fornelli: “That tells me you actually aren’t watching college football and yet you are voting in one of the polls that we use to argue about it.” [16:09]

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3. Big Game Breakdowns

Oklahoma vs. Michigan

[20:29 – 21:57]

• Oklahoma Offensive Line Worries:
  • Struggled in the run game against Illinois State, a bad sign facing Michigan’s front.
  • Key QB Matchup: Michigan’s Bryce Underwood vs. Oklahoma’s defense—how will the freshman handle his first big road test?
  • Tom Fornelli: “If it’s the John Matier show and they can’t run the ball, that is not going to be a good thing for Oklahoma’s offense.” [21:19]

Illinois vs. Duke

[22:55 – 24:41]

• Duke’s Defensive Questions:
  • Strong secondary, but front seven struggled; Illinois is likely to lean heavier on the run.
• Tom Fornelli: “Illinois’s offense was...stop and start...defensively, I think they look really good. For Duke, linebackers and the front seven...did not look especially great. So it’ll be interesting to see how they hold up.” [23:38]

Kansas vs. Missouri

[24:41 – 30:50]

• Old Rivalry, New Faces:
  • Intense animosity, but now Missouri’s shifted from a 2-QB to 1-QB approach with Bo Pribula after Sam Horn’s injury. Both QBs in this matchup are run-first options but have questions as passers.
• Key Battles: Missouri D-line vs. Kansas O-line, especially on third and long; Jalen Daniels’ ability to hit big plays vs. coverage.
  • Chip Patterson: “Missouri’s...defensive line...might be a group that can win this game by stopping the run, forcing [Kansas] into third and long, making [them] more one-dimensional.” [29:10]
  • Danny Kanell: “Jalen Daniels...loves the big shot. Make him throw the ball more underneath.” [30:26]

Baylor vs. SMU

[30:50 – 36:03]

• Baylor’s Defensive Woes:
  • After the Auburn loss, can Dave Aranda’s vaunted defense correct course against an explosive SMU offense led by Kevin Jennings?
  • Tom Fornelli: “Baylor played quarters coverage on 53.6% of its snaps...gave Jackson Arnold a lot of running lanes...I would expect a more balanced approach against SMU.” [31:50]
• High Stakes for Coaches:
  • “If Baylor loses and falls to 0-2, is Dave Aranda back on the hot seat?” Everyone agrees: absolutely, yes. [35:33]

Other Games & Hot Takes

[37:58 – 56:54]

• USF at Florida:
  • USF boomer-bust on offense vs. more talented Florida lineup.
    • Tom Fornelli: “They were very boomer bust. I don’t think they can rely on that against Florida.” [41:51]
  • Danny Kanell on USF D: “That defense was flying around...Florida better be ready for a physical game.” [41:51]
• Arizona State at Mississippi State:
  • Surprising run-game strengths, but major questions about ASU’s defense and Starkville’s tough environment.
• Vandy at Virginia Tech:
  • Brent Pry is under serious pressure at Virginia Tech; poor offensive start and a horrendous one-score record could prove decisive if they drop to 0-2.
    • Chip Patterson: “Brent Pry’s record in one-score games is horrendous...That’s not good. I mean, that’s Scott Frosty in.” [54:16]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• AJ McCarron NIL Claim on Alabama:
  Danny Kanell: “No, no, he said, I know for a fact...there’s no more Saban discount...” [03:23]
• On Alabama Crying Poor:
  Tom Fornelli: “Crying poor after losses is the lamest thing in college football right now.” [06:27]
• AP Poll Frustrations:
  Danny Kanell: “I think your rankings should be incredibly volatile...I thought LSU looked better.” [11:32]
• Utah Disrespected by Voters:
  Tom Fornelli: “That tells me you actually aren’t watching college football and yet you are voting in one of the polls that we use to argue about it.” [16:09]
• On Baylor's Hot Seat:
  Chip Patterson: “If Baylor loses and they fall to 0-2, it’s probably...another shootout...The sentiment will come back to...look what’s happened in our first two games with that defense.” [36:03]
• About Starkville:
  Danny Kanell: “Have you guys been to a game in Starkville? Your ears will be ringing, like, by the time the game is over. It is non stop and it is loud.” [48:09]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Alabama NIL & Saban Era: 01:26–08:14
• AP Top 25 Reaction: 09:12–17:39
• Oklahoma-Michigan Preview: 20:29–21:57
• Illinois-Duke: 22:55–24:41
• Kansas-Missouri: 24:41–30:50
• Baylor-SMU & Hot Seat: 30:50–36:03
• USF-Florida: 37:58–43:11
• ASU-Miss St., Vandy-VT, etc.: 43:11–54:45
• Quick Hits & Viewer Questions: 54:45–58:09

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Tone & Style

The episode is spirited, irreverent, and loaded with the hosts’ characteristic banter (“the COVID 3 tailgate,” “Alabama’s crying poor”), balanced with inside-baseball college football knowledge and pointed strategic analysis. Debate is lively but respectful, and the hosts incorporate audience questions seamlessly.

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Summary

This episode layers sharp analysis of skill positions and personnel matchups with recurring commentary on the direction of the sport—shifting finances, unpredictable poll volatility, and evolving standards at blueblood programs. Key games are broken down with attention to both tactical keys and larger narratives unfolding over the long game of the 2025 season.

Transcript

[Chip Patterson]

This episode of the COVID 3 podcast is presented by Cash App. For a limited time only, new Cash App users can use our show's code when they sign up for a reward. Just download Cash App, use our code cover 3 and send $5 to a friend. Within 14 days. You'll get $10 right in your account. Terms apply. That's money. That's cash app. On September 19, producer Jordan Peele asks what what are you willing to sacrifice in a new horror film called him starring Marlon Waynes and Tyreek Withers? Stay tuned to hear an exclusive trailer for the film right now. On September 19, producer Jordan Peele asks what are you willing to sacrifice in a new horror film called him starring Marlon Waynes and Tyreek Withers? Stay tuned to hear an exclusive trailer for the film revenue right now.

[Danny Cannell]

Welcome Back to the COVID 3 podcast.

[Tom Fornelli]

With your hosts Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli.

[Danny Cannell]

Danny Cannell and Bud Elliott.

[Tom Fornelli]

It's your call for the best college.

[Danny Cannell]

Football coverage from national signing day to the national championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the COVID 3 podcast.

[Chip Patterson]

And welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fornelli, that's Danny Cannell. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you [e-mail] cover3 and everywhere you get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe smash that like and come and join us in the chat aka the COVID 3 tailgate where among other topics, we've got some questions coming up. I'm going to get to you Michael in just a second. Not that Michael. We will here here on this Wednesday be doing a little bit of Monday. We'll react to the new AP Top 25 in Pole Assassin. We've got some injury availability updates but it is a Wednesday. We've got to get you set for the week ahead. That means we are going to be doing big game breakdown. Oklahoma, Michigan, some of the Big Ten action that we talked about a little bit on Tuesdays CBS Sports Network show. Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, SMU also got our eyes elsewhere. Very excited to get into those matchups here. But Danny, I think this is a good one for you because you just shared the set with him. Michael jumped in the tailgate about an hour and a half before we got started and said Cover 3. Any thoughts to AJ McCarron's comments on Alabama's NIL operation this past week? For context, AJ insinuated that his understanding is that this Alabama Nil budget is not close to the, you know, 40 million which is your rev share plus nil that, that 40 million number, that whether it's Mike Gundy, whoever's throwing it out, that seems to be the. The new 20 million. Last year it was Ohio State, the 20 million dollar roster, Texas and the $20 million roster. Danny, any thoughts here on. On McCarran's analysis of where Alabama's nil is?

[Danny Cannell]

So if I remember correctly, I don't think he insinuated. He said, I know for a fact.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, I was going to give him a little bit of wiggle room on this.

[Tom Fornelli]

Right, right.

[Danny Cannell]

No, no, he said, I know for a fact. But what have we heard on here? Even Bud has been all over this for a while. Like there's no more Saban discount, where players would go there for less. Even pre nil era, that players would go there because they trust the NFL development. And you know, Saban, you're going to compete for national championship. So I don't think it's a secret. I don't think he made it up out of thin air. You know, I do think this might be a program that does not have the luxury like a lot of programs that don't have that kind of signature billionaire backer. Now, they've got resources and I think they could pull from a fanatical fan base if they had to. But even we heard Nick Saban at the end, you know, saying the need for more money. So I don't think it's shocking at all. I. I think it's. I think it's factual what he's talking about, and I think that's going to be so. I also thought AJ crushed it, thought he was great on our coverage, thought he did a great job. But you know, it's funny because when Saban retired, I put out a tweet and I was like, congrats, Nick Saban. But he got out at exactly the right time. Like, I thought it was genius for him to retire when he did because he wouldn't have the advantage that he had for his whole tenure there. And a lot of people thought it was taking shots at Saban. I just thought it was fact that he was getting out at exactly the right time. Players are changing player movement, and without the edge, you're like, bama fans have to reset their expectations of what this program is going to be. I know they don't want to hear that, but the days of going 12, 0 and 111 every single year, those are done not only for Bama, but I think for everybody. Bama, I think, is going to have a really hard time getting used to.

[Tom Fornelli]

That, I, I'm going to pass around a collection plate for Alabama and their fans. I feel like, you know, we need to help them out in this time of need. They lost a game. They've lost a few games recently, like half of their games over the last eight or 10. I worry for them. I don't know. It's, it's lame to me that now every time a team loses the excuses, we don't have as much money as the other team like, and it's, it's predictable because that's, it's always, there's always got to be a boogeyman to explain why your team lost. And the reason Alabama lost is because they're broke. Because we all know Florida State is absolutely flush with cash these days. That's why they've been suing it like crazy to get the hell out of the acc. That's why they were considering getting private equity and they were talking, you know, the Saudi Knolls because they're just flush. That's why they won the game. It is, it's timing is crazy because it's the first game of the season. It was one of the biggest games of the weekend. But the fact of the matter is, at the end of the year, Florida state could be 10 and 2 and in the College Football Playoff. And we're looking back and it's like, wow, Alabama lost on the road to a playoff team, but we're treating it as if the sky is falling. The dynasty is dead. Caitlin de Boer has absolutely no idea how to coach. Alabama's broke. There is no hope. There is no future shutter the program.

[Chip Patterson]

So Nick Saban actually did this. It just wasn't after a loss. It was after Texas A and M splashed with a big recruiting class and Nick Saban got up in front of all those Alabama boosters and started saying, you know, Texas A and M, they got all that money. They bought that class. I, I agree with you, Tom. Crying poor after losses is the lamest thing in college football right now. But I did think it was interesting that this has happened at Alabama before. The idea that Alabama fans are disappointed with results and the response is, hey, guys, get your money up. And it was just last time it was a recruiting cycle, so the impact wasn't as significant, in my opinion, as an obvious season opening loss in front of everybody. But yeah, this is, this, this is an Alabama program that has super, super high expectations, generational expectations. And now, you know, it's going to have to, to figure out a way to, to live in the new world. Now, will Kaylen DeBoer be leading this program into the new world? That probably depends on what's going to happen over the course of the next eight, nine weeks. But this is, this is, this is a new, new spot for Alabama. We have not seen them wriggle like this. We have not seen them sweat like this in 20 years. So it's, it's going to be something that I think is going to be very interesting for newer college football fans to get used to. Newer college football fans who've just gotten used to Alabama fans perhaps being over the top, but always with something to show for it to celebrate interesting season ahead in Tuscaloosa.

[Tom Fornelli]

You mentioned that, like, they're sweating. Here's a question for you guys, and maybe it's a better question for Gary and Norlander. Should, Should NATO be sweating? Because if Alabama football is losing and they're crying that they're poor, how much longer do we go until it's like, well, we're giving too much money to the basketball program?

[Chip Patterson]

I, there's a, I've got. I, I have a, there's Nate. I have a feeling that NATO's, with the right call, might look around and be like, oh, oh, they're about to line all this up for the football program. Might be, might be time to go.

[Tom Fornelli]

But anyway, if you're an Alabama fan, are you not, like, are you not willing to sacrifice your basketball team so that your football team can be in the playoff and being winning 10 plus games every single year?

[Chip Patterson]

They don't, they don't talk about a Final four appearance at all.

[Tom Fornelli]

That's what I'm saying. It's like, they'd be like, all right, see you guys. It's fun for a couple years, but we'd rather win football games.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, but that's, that is definitely a question that we can give to our friends Gary Parrish and Matt Norlander over there on the Eye on College Basketball podcast. All right. Normally on Mondays, we get to spend a little bit of time looking at the new college football rankings, but the new AP Top 25 came out on Tuesday. So let's talk to our friends, the Pole Assassin. Speaking of Pole Assassin. Yeah. Texas displaced as the number one team in the country that is taken over by Ohio State. I will say we had it as a little bit of an icebreaker question for Tuesday's CBS Sports Network show. I did not think it would be as heavy. 55 first place votes going to the Buckeyes. That means that a significant amount of voters who had Penn State number one flipped to Ohio State, even though Penn State, outside of allowing a touchdown to mess up an under, I mean, what did Penn State do wrong?

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah.

[Tom Fornelli]

Anyway, played Nevada, heaven forbid.

[Chip Patterson]

Danny, as you. As you look up and down the top 25, anything that we. We sounded like we were all in on Ohio State, anything stand out in terms of the movement up or down?

[Danny Cannell]

So there's a couple things. One, I think they got it wrong. I wish voters would be more willing to forget preseason expectations, forget preseason rankings, and just look at who was the most impressive of the weekend, who had the most impressive win? And I thought that was lsu. I thought LSU should be the number one team in the country. And I. It's not like. And, you know, Ohio State fans, they were like, well, how could you say that we beat the number one team in the country? I'm like, well, yeah, but first of all, you did it at home. LSU had their win on the road versus number four team in the country. And how do we know Texas? Like, they don't look like the number one team in the country anymore. And granted, you did win that game, and I don't think you should be outside. I had him at number two. I don't think you should be completely disrespected, but if you're supposed to just forget everything you saw and just go with what you saw on the field. I thought LSU should have been number one. And they only received, what, three?

[Chip Patterson]

Three. Three voters agree with you.

[Danny Cannell]

Right? Which is what, in my opinion, is enough. I thought there should have been more people that should have been, you know, given credit for that. So, again, it's week two. It doesn't mean that much, perception wise, but that was just something that kind of bothers me. I think you're. Your, Your ranking should be incredibly volatile, you know, throughout the first month of the season when we're still gathering information because we didn't know anything about any of these teams. Now that we know a little bit more, I thought LSU looked better in that performance on the road. So that was kind of thing at the top. That kind of jumped out to me and sort of bothers me that the AP voters aren't willing to forget what they thought in the preseason, because I'm sure there are a lot that had Ohio State at 2, and they were like, well, I'm going to bump them up one. And I just. It doesn't make much sense to me the way that the formula works.

[Tom Fornelli]

I just. Just had a moment of clarity. Danny's arguing for lsu. But it's not SEC bias.

[Danny Cannell]

Right.

[Tom Fornelli]

It's ACC bias.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah.

[Tom Fornelli]

It's a time you're arguing that beating Clemson, Clemson is more impressive than beating Texas. And I am here to tell you that at the end of the year, Clemson will not be a better football team than Texas. They just.

[Danny Cannell]

I'll take a side bet.

[Tom Fornelli]

Period. They're not a better team. It's talked about this all off season. Like, we got into the argument on the TV show a few, like last month where I said that there were eight teams that could win it and Clemson and Miami weren't because Clemson's just not a national title contender because they can't beat elite teams. And that's exactly what happened this weekend. They lost at home to a team that's on the same level as they are. Texas lost on the road to Ohio State. Well, outplaying Ohio State in most areas. So it's. I have no problem with Ohio State being number one. They have the most impressive win of the season so far. They should be number one. If you want to argue LSU should be ahead of Penn State, that's fine, because Penn State. Listen, they killed Nevada, but it was Nevada. LSU went on the road and beat Clemson. And I am comfortable saying Clemson is better than Nevada. In fact, if Clemson played Nevada, they would run up to score, run up cade club Nick stats and make you think he's good at playing football.

[Chip Patterson]

But to your point, good at playing football?

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, I know I was. I know that's just being hyperbolic for.

[Chip Patterson]

Fun, but, like, Mike Wilbot's very disappointed in you.

[Tom Fornelli]

To your point. Hey, you know what? That's the first time Wilbond has said something that I've agreed with in, like 15 years. So thank you, Mike. See your point, though, about them throwing out preseason expectations. Like, the poll isn't perfect in my eyes or I'd move different things. But I do think they. That we see if we look closer, that a lot of people are taking that approach and they are kind of starting fresh because Notre Dame was left off of three ballots entirely. Alabama fell all the way to 21, and they were left off of 14 ballots. So, like, a lot of these teams that lost in these big games were punished by a lot of the voters by just being left off the top 25 and then putting other teams in their place. For now, they'll probably be back as soon as they win games. Clemson was on everybody's ballot for some reason and no lower than 17th. Why Clemson gets to stay no lower than 17th while Notre Dame is off of three ballots. I don't know, but that's the way it works.

[Chip Patterson]

I would agree with that.

[Danny Cannell]

Really?

[Tom Fornelli]

They lost on the road to Miami.

[Danny Cannell]

No, I. I would agree with that. I think that was a good loss for Notre Dame.

[Tom Fornelli]

I thought Notre Dame was more impressive than Clemson. Yeah, but. Yeah, so I. I don't really have any outstanding problems with anything. We see. There are some individual votes that I'm just kind of like, eyebrow raising. Like, one person still has Texas at number three, and I'm just kind of like, all right, you're just not really paying. You know, you're just a little too in love with your own thoughts. But other than that, there's nothing that truly stands out. I will say, it is strange to me that based on what we've seen so far, that. Oh, no. Actually, no. You know what? They're lower than I thought. I thought Kansas State got more votes than that, but they didn't. All right, never mind.

[Chip Patterson]

So I will. I wish Utah was higher. I just think that no one watched it.

[Tom Fornelli]

They were left off of 28 ballots.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, Utah. Utah was checking in at like, number Utah, I think was like 26 in the preseason balloting. And they only move up. Or 27. They only move up to 25. That's. That. That is not. That is not in line with the statement that was made. I just think that. 11:00pm Eastern Time kickoff. No one saw how clinical that was, Tom. No one saw that. Was it a 10 minute drive? Put that thing in park. And they were like, okay, we've been beaten up on these guys enough. Let's get this thing to triple zeros. They. They could have scored 50 in that game if they really wanted to.

[Tom Fornelli]

And I'm really happy you brought it up because this is like a poster case of like west coast bias and then like Big 12 bias, you know what I mean? In that Utah could appear as high as number seven on a ballot in San McEwens there. They also received votes for the 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th. Like they were. They were getting 15 ballots. Yeah. But then you don't even show up on 28 ballots. That tells me that you were not watched because you were the late night game on Saturday. So everybody else was either writing their stories. If they are actually writing members of the college football media, which, again, a lot of the people in this poll aren't. They're like radio hosts or they're just whatever. But that tells me you actually aren't watching college football and yet you are voting in one of the polls that we use to argue about it.

[Danny Cannell]

I got another team that kind of bothered me. They didn't show up. USF like everybody thought Boise State was top 25 team and they, you know, 34, 7 in that second half. They completely dominated that defense showed up. I would have liked seen USF got a little bit more credit for that win over. I thought it was one of the better wins from a score dominating the game. I thought they should have showed up in this poll somewhere. And then it's like who do you take who you take out? I think there's a couple teams. I think I would at least have them considered over.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah. Only seven people included the Bulls on their ballot this week. Wow. And that was like a spotlight game. So it's not like there was no excuse for people not to have seen that 58 voters left them off entirely.

[Chip Patterson]

Let's see. I don't know if it's posted yet. Do you want me to, you want me to break a little news about the CBS Sports 136?

[Tom Fornelli]

I do.

[Chip Patterson]

Danny Cannell, you'll be happy to hear LSU number two in the CBS Sports 136. State checking in at number three. We had. USF was one of the biggest movers up. Let's see. USF moved up a total of 48 spots in the CBS Sports 136. Florida State up 28 spots to number 13. Tulane also a big mover up Boise State, Baylor, Alabama and Kansas State among the biggest fallers week over week in the CBS Sports 136. Go and check that out. CBS Sports.com Anything else from the rankings before we jump into Big Game Breakdown? All right. Coming up on the other side, every single Wednesday, we like to take you inside the matchup. We do that with Big Game Breakdown and more nukes.

[Tom Fornelli]

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[Chip Patterson]

That bloom all season long shop Labor Day Savings now through September 3rd only at the Home Depot. See select stores for details back Here on the COVID 3 podcast Thursdays are for locks for the best bets against the spread over unders and more. Now is when we go inside the matchup. We break it down. It's big game breakdown now when one of the biggest games of the week is one that we got to really dive into on the CBS Sports Network show on Tuesday. I always want to leave us a little bit of time when we don't have the constraints linear television. So we got a good amount of time to look at Oklahoma Michigan on the Tuesday show. Go check it out YouTube.com cover3 or listen to it wherever you get your podcast. Gentlemen, any further notes or thoughts as we got a chance to maybe even get a get a second look at it?

[Tom Fornelli]

I nothing really outstanding that we didn't discuss, but just to drive it home for anybody who didn't watch yesterday or listen like my concerns for both teams are. I mean Oklahoma's offensive line looked pretty in the run game, looked pathetic against Illinois State and now they're going up against Michigan. That's going to be a problem. And if you think back to last year, what was Oklahoma's offense's primary problem? It's offensive lines. At least through one game, it doesn't feel like the issues have been fixed on the other side. Bryce Underwood played pretty well at home against New Mexico for a guy making his first start as a true freshman. But going on the road to face this Oklahoma defense, which did look every bit the billing of it during the off season against Illinois State, it's a, it's a much different animal. So it'll be interesting to see how Underwood performs, whether or not they can get anything going in the passing game, how effective they will be able to run the ball against this Oklahoma defense. Because I do think they're going to have to to have any kind of fighting chance and whether or not the Sooners can get anything going on the ground because if they just rely on John Mattier, who makes some very, very fun plays. But he is a volatile player here, ups and downs, he makes things happen, he misses things and he also can panic a lot of the times and make mistakes, which is what we saw him do at Washington State when the competition level rose up a little bit. So if it's the John Matier show and they can't run the ball, that is not going to be a good thing for Oklahoma's offense.

[Danny Cannell]

I will say this and Chip and I are doing our picks later for the top 25. Every game in the top 25. I think there's going to be a theme. I think you'll see better offensive performances from week one to week two. There's a lot of sloppy play. A lot of schools across the country struggled. It's their first time versus live action. You know, they don't do scrimmages. You don't get a preseason. So just kind of in general, I think you'll see teams perform better. You hope, you hope you make that big step. But even talking to a couple coaches this week, they've all said, you know, we really hope to make a big step forward in week one to week two.

[Chip Patterson]

What was the stat? Tom the under was not oh in games last week.

[Tom Fornelli]

Hold on. The under in all the games was 83 and 61 so far through week one and the games are finishing an average of 5.09 points below the listed total. It was a slop fest on offense.

[Chip Patterson]

Last yeah, that's. Yeah, that's. That's Danny that was my reaction too. Like, oh, we're almost like six points of under there. That's. That's interesting. Markets, lines, odds makers, all those things will correct of course we imagine over time. Unless of course it's the NFL where favorites are just what blitzed everybody all through last fall, causing Wall street issues Anyway. Illinois, Duke. Anything else there? Tom I I had to put because we are a Luke Altmire podcast. I had to recommend that we gave some Luke Altmire promotion even here too. Any. Any lingering thoughts about how the fighting aligni stack up against Manny Diaz's crew, Dukes and offense.

[Tom Fornelli]

They got off to a really sloppy start against Elon. Kind of started figuring things out in the second half. Maybe ran it up a little bit, maybe just a touch. I. Yeah, it's. It's an interesting matchup. Illinois was without its starting right guard last week, I'm guessing because of disciplinary issues. He did not start in the game. I. I don't know if he'll be back for this one. If he is, I think that'll be big for Illinois. I think that their run game, like Illinois's offense against Western Illinois was explosive and it scored points, but it also was kind of stop and start. Now some of that might have just been they weren't really pulling out the full playbook and they were just kind of sticking to basics, but there was some stuff that needs to be ironed out. Defensively, I think they look really good for Duke. Darian Mensah looked really good in the second half of that game. Defensively I still am totally believing in that secondary but like the linebackers in the front seven against Elon to me did not look especially great. So it'll be interesting to see how they hold up because like as we discussed on the show yesterday, I do expect Illinois to lean a bit more in the run on this game.

[Chip Patterson]

Game. Big offensive line. J.C. davis. Let that, let the rest of that crew get up there and mash. All right, let's turn our attention to some of the other games that we have not gotten a chance to dig in on Kansas. We've gotten a chance to see Kansas twice already. Jayhawks2 and oh on the season. Now we get the just a, a rivalry with so much hate. I mean not. There is no respect here. It is not clean. It is not old fashioned. This is like dirty, angry hate between Kansas and Missouri. Now will it play out on the field? I don't know. These teams play each other enough to be able to that have that, you know, be instigated. But yeah, it'll get violent in the stands and, and you know, that palpable energy always seems to bleed over. Now what do we know about Missouri? Missouri's two quarterback situation turned into a one quarterback situation real quickly due to Sam Horn's injury. Bo Pribula coming in and taking over. So scored a boatload of points against Central Arkansas, but it was Central Arkansas. Danny, what do we think we know about Missouri here that'll be important for this matchup?

[Danny Cannell]

I was kind of surprised at how much they ran Pribula like he, he was one of the leading rushers. He had two touchdowns. I, I was kind of, you know, impressed with the way he moved the ball. We know what Jalen Daniels can do for Kansas, but operating in that system, and correct me if I'm wrong, wasn't Sam Horn supposed to be the mobile one and he actually got hurt on a run and that's kind of where.

[Tom Fornelli]

They were leaning but always been.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah, he ran Wildcat with Penn State last year. He would come in and do some Wildcats. So it does look like that offense might be a little bit more quarterback run heavy. Which I know online this morning I saw some numbers about how much quarterback run is up across the board. So just something to keep an eye out for from that one. And they're going to have their hands full with Jalen Daniels running the football. So it's hard to get, it's hard to get a whole lot from that. But I do think you know, having that type of performance. And sometimes I don't. I don't want to diminish anybody, but sometimes it's more of a, A distraction when you have two quarterbacks, like, who's going to be the guy? And so if injury resolves that and you have to go with the guy, it can almost just be, all right, now we know what we're building our game plan around. We know who's going to be out there.

[Tom Fornelli]

You mentioned the, the amount that they ran preview the last week to me, I mean, again, this is the first game of the season. Sam Horn got hurt, so who knows? Like, obviously Eli was talking about before the game that the plan really was, you know, they were going to play both. And then Horn gets hurt. Not privilege playing the full game, but if you look at the numbers. And again, it's just one game, like you're surprised that they ran Pribula so much in that. In against that team. Why were they running him so much? What don't they want him doing? What possible concern there? So I, it's. It's an interesting spot because my, my biggest concern about Pribula has been his ability as a passer. Because I've seen him do the QB run game at Penn State. I knew he was fine with that. It's just if you're going to rely on him to be your starter. But we've also seen Mizzou if, if they can go with Pribula and Ahmad Hardy and just kind of really lean into their rushing attack to can try to, you know, control the ball, not screw things up and then rely on their defense to be outstanding. That's a formula that can win for them. But another concern about it, though is looking at the numbers. I mean, according to PFF, he scrambled 9.3, like 9.4% of the time. He dropped back. And quarterbacks who scramble are typically not seeing it like it's. So there may have been more pass plays called and I haven't watched the tape, so I can't say for myself I got to trust this data. So he, he scrambled a lot. That's a problem to me. He was also pressured on nearly 20% of his drop backs, which against that team, that's a problem to me because one of my primary concerns about that team was losing both of their tackles. It's like, I don't know how that offensive line is going to look, but it's the first game. But the problem is they're going into their second game. This will be Kansas's third, so they're a little further along and we have seen so far in their games against Fresno and then last week, I can't even remember what FCS team they dog whipped, but it was an FCS team. Like that's been a very explosive offense to start the season. They have hitting big plays. Jalen Daniels is making big plays, but he's similar to Pribula in that they don't really seem to be all that confident in him dropping back to throw the ball either. So the edge in this game could just come back down to which one of these quarterbacks can complete some passes.

[Chip Patterson]

I, I think Missouri's defensive line, a group that we pointed to in the preseason, that playing at home you get Jalen Daniels in third and long obvious passing situations. You take away some of the, some of the dynamic aspects that you would get in terms of trying to defend against the run and the pass. There's a Wasn't Kansas one of the best third and long teams in the country last year?

[Tom Fornelli]

I don't remember.

[Chip Patterson]

Was it like late, late and long was I think the conversation we might have talked about it with, with Bill C in our preseason chat, but that's Jalen Daniels just making stuff happen. You might be able to make stuff happen against some defenses in the Big 12 that you're not going to be able to make happen against Missouri, especially when you're playing on the road. So to me, one thing I'm going to be looking at is whether that Missouri defensive line, which we, which we seem to be in agreement on, is probably the strongest aspect of that team that might be a group that can win this game by stopping the run, forcing them into third and long, making Kansas a little bit more one dimensional. Because Kansas's offensive line is going to be better when they are not in those obvious passing downs. So that's one thing that I'm really keyed in on, especially with the game being in Columbia.

[Danny Cannell]

I would say to Jalen Daniels, he is that big game Hunter, he loves the big shot.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Danny Cannell]

Make him throw the ball more underneath, you know, play that kind of shell coverage on the back end. Make him be patient because that's where I think his 1 deficiency is. Sort of the middle to underneath type throws. So make him work the length of the field and see if you get him to force one, you know, because he's going to want to get that big play.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. Speaking of, not really sure what I can, I can make of this. I don't, I don't really have a good game grade for SMU after You know, just completely obliterating East Texas A and M. Baylor, on the other hand, lots of lots to take away from the opening loss against Auburn. Game's going to be at smu. Big sort of statement opportunity for the Mustangs as a college football playoff team from a year ago gets their first of two shots at a Big 12 team trying to build up that strength of schedule that could help them if they do find themselves again in an at large type argument at the end of the year. Baylor has to fix this defense. I know that we don't look at, we don't necessarily look at Kevin Jennings as the running specific quarterback, but man, that boy can still scoot. So Tom, what, how do you see a path forward for Baylor to be able to shore this thing up, put in the changes that they need to have a better performance?

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, I, I, I understand if you're a Baylor fan after what Jackson Arnold did to you last week, while you'd probably be a little bit worried about what Kevin Jennings might do to you with SMU this week. But Baylor was in like an interesting spot in that they kind of had to pick their poison against Auburn because Auburn's got Cam Coleman, they have those receivers and they really had a choice to make. We could either take away the deep ball in the explosive play in the passing game and force Jackson Arnold to either scramble or, you know, check down, or we could try to stop the run and then maybe get burnt alive toasted by their receivers. And as far as the answer, Baylor played quarters coverage on 53.6% of its snaps on defense against Auburn, which was the most in the country by far. When they weren't in quarters, they were in cover too. And that's a lot of zone just to keep the passing game, which also kind of gave Jackson Arnold a lot of running lanes up front and then he was able to get in the open field and break off plays. I don't think they have to take the same approach against SMU. It's not, no disrespect to SMU's receivers, they have good ones, but they don't really have Cam Coleman in company. So I would expect you see a more balanced approach from Baylor defensively in this game that allows them to at least slow down the quarterback run game. But that doesn't mean they're going to be effective or it means they're going to succeed because smu, Kevin Jennings, the Penn State game was horrific. It was awful. It was terrible. It shouldn't skew the entire season that Kevin Jennings had. He's still capable of putting up big games, big numbers and winning games for smu. So this is a very interesting matchup to me and it'll be really interesting to see how the Baylor defense adjusted adjusts after last week's game plan.

[Danny Cannell]

I think we got a little bit of a shootout on our hands.

[Chip Patterson]

I mean 65 and a half certainly suggests that.

[Danny Cannell]

Right, right, right. But I think this will live up to that. R.J. maryland. I thought it was interesting because I think last year I'm pretty sure he was listed as a tight end and now they're just listing him as a wide out. He's a pretty good weapon. He didn't, you know, he's third on the receiving chart. Last year he had three catches. We got a couple other guys step up. He did go. Does he back? Is he okay?

[Chip Patterson]

I was saying he got hurt last year.

[Danny Cannell]

Oh yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

They finished the season without what I believe to be like one of the best weapons that they had on their roster for week one.

[Danny Cannell]

Right. So he's pretty impressive and I do think this is one where it'll be, you know, can SMU's defense slow down that passing a cat? Because you've always been a big Sawyer Robertson fan, Tom, and I think the whole country got to see what he could do against pretty good Auburn team. He is more than capable of putting that team on his back. So I'm kind of curious to see what SMU does defensively to slow down that pass game.

[Tom Fornelli]

I'll also say like this is, this is a huge weekend for the Big 12 in general because week one didn't go season.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah, yeah.

[Tom Fornelli]

Because like in Big 12 fans were really mad at me for what I wrote on Saturday night. But I said that after the early, early results of the weekend, like they were looking like a one bid league because they had been one in three in games against power four competition that moved to two and three on, on Monday night. But the two wins so far have been UCLA and North Carolina, two teams who look like teams who may not be reaching bowls this year. So to get a win over SMU this weekend would be huge. To get a win over Iowa would be huge if they could somehow beat Oregon, which. Okay, we'll just skip that one. But if Kansas can beat Mizzou, like they have a chance to really kind of salvage what was a very slow start. Because the only way this conferen is going to start getting respect from like people in polls and people on the College Football Playoff selection committee is for them to start Winning these games with regularity and until they do, you're just going to have to deal with the reputation that you have.

[Danny Cannell]

We had a question from Brett in the chat.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, I got.

[Danny Cannell]

Okay, yeah, yeah, I was gonna say.

[Chip Patterson]

All right, now let's go outside the scheme. Forget your quarters coverage. I just want to go narrative here. If Baylor loses and falls to 02, is Dave Aranda back on the hot seat? Yes, yes, yes.

[Danny Cannell]

Like no brainer. Starting the season 0 and 2 and considering SMU, I think they probably looked down on that program. They were in the playoffs last year. This is a huge, huge game for Dave Aranda.

[Tom Fornelli]

I, I, I would, I would think he'd be on the hot seat with a certain segment of fans. But the fact of the matter is you're ow and two and that sucks. But you haven't lost a conference game yet. Like every your all of your goals are still on the table.

[Chip Patterson]

But if you have made it a statement that I am putting my hands on the defense, the thing that made me a head coaching candidate and the defense, because I'll tell you what I don't see. I don't see Baylor losing this game. 24, 21. Like if Baylor loses this game and they fall to 02, it's probably like you mentioned, Danny, another shootout that even if Sawyer Robertson has a big game, the, the sentiment will come back to. Well, look what's happened in our first two games with that defense. That brings back a ton of experience and production and starts from last season. And in the middle of last season things were looking dicey before they roll off six straight wins to close out the regular season. So vibes were very different because of the way they closed. Another slow start though would, would definitely warm up the seat, I would imagine. It's a very good question, Brett. All right, coming up on the other side, a lot more interesting. Even like sneaky storylines to pick apart. Great matchups and more. We'll continue with our breakdowns of week two and more next.

[Danny Cannell]

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[Chip Patterson]

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[Danny Cannell]

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[Tom Fornelli]

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[Chip Patterson]

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[Tom Fornelli]

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[Chip Patterson]

Mama Papa mi cuerpo crece a un ridmo alarmte y la ropa que me comprenora me que dara muy pe quronto Back here on the COVID 3 podcast continuing big game breakdowns into our mid game breakdowns. Still games that especially early in the season. So much intrigue. Curious about this one because we mentioned USF in the Pole Assassin earlier and you know where they were or were not getting respect. They're going to be heading to the swamp to take on Florida. Now Florida played one of the worst FCS teams that there are, the Long Island Sharks. Bless their hearts, they did. They couldn't really do much.

[Tom Fornelli]

So I don't Long Island Guppies, I don't.

[Chip Patterson]

I don't have. You know the the most critical Florida analysis was, hey, I know the score looked great, but there's some stuff to clean up. I know the stats look good, but there's some things that we could do better. The least critical Florida analysis was yes, this is everything we wanted. Natty coming our way. Let's go. What's in the middle? What are we going to get here as South Florida goes to play the Gators.

[Tom Fornelli]

Was interesting to me. Our friend listener Parker Fleming, he always tweets after the week like the how bad did your team get beat? Graphic, right? Which is just based on success rate. It's like did you really outperform them or did you get a little lucky? Do you know which team got outperformed the most in a win as far as success rate last week was the Bulls. Yeah, South Florida. Which to my eyes, based on what I saw in that game was very surprising to me. Like I wouldn't have been shocked if Boise had a higher success rate based on down to down stuff. But I was shocked at the gap. So obviously the mistakes Boise made really shot them in the foot in that spot. So I was going to say that.

[Chip Patterson]

Was when I first saw that too.

[Danny Cannell]

Tom.

[Chip Patterson]

I thought the what came to my head was finishing drives. I just thought that, you know, USF hit on a couple big plays and Boise did a horrible job finishing drives because in addition to luck or turnovers, a big part that can skew final score to the net success rate. And again, like Parker Fleming Stats of war on Twitter. Good friend. Awesome, awesome follow. Be sure to check out all of his work. That's that's another thing too that I always come back to. One reason why down to down you might be better than the scoreboard says is you just when the field gets small and you need Big plays, you just can't punch it in for a touchdown.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, so, so I went and I looked it up. South Florida's success rate on offense was 32.8% in that game. Ranks 116th. And to your point though, they were extremely explosive. They had overall explosive play rate of 17% which ranked 20th. And a new little one I do called nuclear rate, which just is the amount of 40 yard plus plays that you had was 5.66% which ranks fourth nationally. So like yeah, they were very boomer bust. I don't think they can rely on that against Florida. I know Florida played on air against Long island last week, but talent wise I feel like the Gators are going to be better than South Florida at pretty much every single spot even at quarterback. Because as good as I think Byron Brown is, I still think DJ Lagway is a better player. So I, yeah, it's, it's going to be really interesting to see what this Bulls offense is actually capable of doing if they can do the little things instead of just hitting the home runs. Because they're going to have to. Like I don't, you can't rely on just hitting 40 yard touchdown after 40 yard touchdown against this Florida defense. Although maybe you can, who knows. It is college football.

[Danny Cannell]

I think it was probably. And Chip, you mentioned it, Maddox Matson did hit some big plays which I think should be very concerning considering you're going against DJ Lagway who also another one kind of like Jalen Daniels. He loves to hit the big plays and to see some weapons start to come to the forefront. I mean a lot was made out of the catch down in Miami. But Vernell Brown's catch was maybe just as impressive the way he did it. Maybe he wasn't in traffic. That's where you give him the edge. But I do think this game will be physical. I, I, us, I think USF's defense was the takeaway for me. I knew about Byron Brown, I know what he's capable of doing. That defense was flying around. I thought the second half specifically, yeah, you had a little bit more of a one dimensional team trying to throw the football. But I thought that defense was sort of the story coming away for me for that game. So I think Florida better be ready for a physical game. I talked to Alex Golesch this morning. He, he's like, hey, I think we're gonna have a fourth quarter game on our hands, you know, and the longer you let them hang around, the more their confidence builds. Your starts to shake A little bit. So we'll see. Because they've, they've played really well in these spots before against Miami, against Alabama, you know, at other times throughout the last three or four years, those players a lot of might have wanted to play at Florida. You know, they play a little chip on their shoulder. This will be a good test for Florida.

[Chip Patterson]

I agree with that one. A couple others, we got a little Mississippi State, Arizona State, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, Ole Miss at Kentucky or something that I might have overlooked. Scanning dk what stands out to you as something that's particularly intriguing that you want to dig in on?

[Danny Cannell]

Another Big 12 game, Arizona State going to Mississippi State. I think this game is really, really interesting the way it unfolded last year. Arizona State completely dominated in the run game last season. I think There was like 300 plus yards and they held Mississippi State to about 50 last season. Sam Levitt, they looked good in their week one game, but this is a much different challenge for them. Blake Shapen's healthy, which he was last year too. But I just think this is going to be of all the Big 12 matchups because this is supposed to be one kind of like Baylor that's supposed to be a front runner against one of the worst in the sec. This one feels like a must win for the Big 12 and for Arizona State. They were complaining about where their positioning was last year. It's a big one, you know, Mississippi.

[Tom Fornelli]

Who'd Mississippi State play last week? They played Southern Miss. Yeah, I gotta say, I don't, I don't think they're good, but they looked better against Southern Miss than anything I really recall seeing from them last year. So that's a good sign. The offense looked a little crisper, so this is going to be a little tougher test, I think, than what Arizona State had last year, especially now that they have to come to Starkville for the game. And for Arizona State, they played Northern Arizona. They, they won 38 to 19. Now I have, I have not jumped into the all 22 for this one to break it down. I have no idea what Arizona State was doing defensively in this game. They might have just been in the same damn zone coverage the entire game and Northern Arizona just kind of took advantage of it. But they had a success rate of 61.3% on defense, which ranked 72nd nationally after playing Northern Arizona. And more concerning to me, they gave up an explosive play, 11.2 for 7% of the time, which ranks 90th. And a lot of that they were, they were very, very tough. Stopping them on the ground. Now, some of that I have to assume just based on looking at it. And what you see was by design, they were like, all right, go ahead and run the ball. You're not gonna be able to throw it on us and we're just gonna go home and beat you. But if there are concerns, like if there's any signal to the noise of what I'm seeing in the numbers for Arizona State's defense last week, that could be a game to keep an eye on because you might be surprised by the results.

[Chip Patterson]

We, Danny, you and I, were both on Kanye Udo as a big replacement for cam Scatter Boo. Two carries, 19 yards, one catch in this game. Leading rusher was Sam Levitt in this game. Two touchdowns on the ground, 94 rushing yards, 331. So like, you know, four total touchdowns, a whole bunch of yards. Levitt hero ball against the FCS team.

[Danny Cannell]

You know, it's the combo. It's Sam Levitt, Jordan Tyson, hero.

[Chip Patterson]

Jordan Tyson, yeah, was no, like, I mean, he just.

[Danny Cannell]

And that's where I think, because Kyson Brown was leading back and he was also the second leading receiver. Like, if you can take away Jordan Tyson and no other receiver steps up, which last year, Cam Scatter Boo was the second leading receiver for this team, like somebody else. And they were fine without him in the playoffs. I know they played good without him and other guys stepped up. But I do think that Levy's defense, I think that'll be one of their priorities, is take away Jordan Tyson. Everybody else, you've got to do it. And Sam Levitt, I didn't know he had that much speed. I mean, he looked fast on that 52 yard touchdown run that he had. But I think this is a tricky spot for Arizona State. Even Kenny Dillingham, throughout camp, he's been kind of saying some stuff about his squad. He doesn't like the way they're practicing. He's been a little bit upset. I'm sure he's trying to spark, you know, light a spark on it. Everybody's been telling him how good they are all off season, but I think this is a concerning spot for Arizona State.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, to your point about Jordan Tyson, 17 targets. I mean, in some of these games against FCS teams, we see the time. Like you were talking about Illinois. We're trying to get other guys, many people involved as possible. Why are you spamming your best player over and over and over again Against Northern Arizona, again, we could be proven wrong. And it's very difficult to take something and feel good about using an FCS result and spinning it forward. After all, Oregon was 2414 against Idaho and then went 13 and won the Big Ten.

[Danny Cannell]

So, you know, and I don't see your thing about Kanye Udo. I don't know if he is supposed to be the feature back. I know a lot of Arizona State people had said he's a nice addition, but we have some really good backs on our team already, so I'll be interested to see what kind of role he starts to fill. And maybe they just go running back by committee, which is, you know, a good option to have.

[Chip Patterson]

And, and let's let us not overlook that this is going to be in Starkville. Yeah.

[Danny Cannell]

You see him out there with the cowbells at practice, Arizona State. I'm like, oh, boy. It's not a little more than three cowbells. Those will have your ears ringing. Have you guys been to a game in Starkville? No, but I would love to call the game. I called a game there one time. I think I've called a couple games there. Your ears will be ringing, like, by the time the game is over. It is non stop and it is.

[Chip Patterson]

Loud like the, the. I was standing next to the speaker at the concert, kind of just like non stop. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Danny Cannell]

I, I'm.

[Chip Patterson]

I've got it on the. I've got it on the siren watch, man. I. Arizona State better. Better show up and better bring. Better bring something. Because I'm with you, Tom, for. There was a. A moment, a like, brief moment in time where that Mississippi State Southern Miss game, was it 10 10, you know, and it was like, oh, Charles Huff and his Marshall team that he transported to Hattiesburg. Are they gonna do it? And there was a difference in speed and athleticism and size. And when the physics took over, it was like, okay, Mississippi State pulled away with a lot of explosive plays, defensive stops. I mean, I'm with you, Tom. I came out of that one being like, okay, I should not bury Mississippi State. This is a, this is a team that can, that can do some damage to somebody.

[Tom Fornelli]

There is some big. You mentioned Danny, about going to Starkville. And this is, this is from Kenny himself. There is some controversy about going to Starkville because apparently, according to Kenny, there's not like a hotel within 90 minutes of the stadium. And Mississippi State fans are pretty upset about that. They're saying there's plenty of hotels.

[Danny Cannell]

Interesting.

[Tom Fornelli]

They're taking it as a shot at Starkville, the home of COVID 3 podcast quarterback Luke Altmire. And we will not stand for that.

[Danny Cannell]

Everybody's so sensitive. Can we just lay off? Geez. Can we just relax?

[Chip Patterson]

And that's when I took it personally. We are in the era of personal slights. Okay, Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech. You want to talk about a don't fall to 02 moment? Brent Pry. Don't, don't lose again. I think this is a, is a pressure packed game for the Hokies. I hope I'm not just going. I mean, Tommy, my total ACC glasses or ACC focused on this. I think Vanderbilt's probably the better team. And I think that for Virginia Tech, given how poor Kyron Drones played and how poor that offense looked, I, I think that they really need to be able to have a strong bounce back if, if, if they're going to avoid this thing getting a little bit toxic.

[Tom Fornelli]

I mean, we are at risk of a little too much recency bias because I mean, Vandy played Charleston Southern last week, so there's not a whole lot to take from it. But if you just based it off of what we saw from Vanderbilt last year, yeah, I think there's a very strong argument to make that Vanderbilt's the better team in this game. I mean, they did beat Virginia Tech last year, but also, I don't want to put too much stock in the Hokies really not looking great against what could be a top, you know, could be a top 20ish team this year. So we talked about it after on the reaction show and just Kyron Drones just did not show any kind of improvement to me and I think that's a huge problem for this offense. They're going to have to run the ball effectively here against Vandy. You would hope that returning home and not being at a neutral site and being in front of your home crowd for the first time this, you know, the year. The home opener gives them some energy to help them get off to a good start. But you can also wonder, considering the hot seatish talk around Brent Pry all offseason, then you start your year and you lose that game on Sunday. It's like, what will the vibe be in that stadium to open it? Like, will everybody, will it be as juiced as it could have been if you at least played better or won the game last week? I, I don't know. It's. It is a very, very interesting spot this weekend where I do feel like there could be serious ramifications if Virginia Tech loses.

[Chip Patterson]

Yes.

[Danny Cannell]

I still feel like they played pretty good defensively. You know, they were in the game for three quarters. You Get a punt return goes against you and then that's where you do not want to be as Kyron Drones having to throw the ball a lot from behind like then that's where you get into real trouble. But I actually was pretty impressed with the personnel stacking up against South Carolina. But you guys are 100% right. This is a must win game for Brent Pry. I think the vibes will be high. You'll see the crowd, you'll see Lane Stadium packed. You'll get the run out. But oh boy, if that offense struggles early again. We had talked all. I had talked all about Lenora Sellers breaking a new offensive coordinator. Remember Kyron Drones is too. So you better see we talked earlier in the show about making that big jump from week one to week two. They need offensively to take that big step. But I do think Vanderbilt's defense will not be as challenging as South Carolina's defense.

[Chip Patterson]

That's fair. I mean still, still got. Still good.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. When. When some. Somebody in the tailgate said that this line is stinky. I don't, I wouldn't say stinky. I mean minus 1.5 in Lane Stadium says that Vanderbilt might is a slight, slightly higher rated team.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah.

[Tom Fornelli]

And it is.

[Chip Patterson]

And it. Yeah then it is so a lot of pressure and look I'll tell you Brent, prize record in one score games is horrendous.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

I mean if let let this be a one score game and come up on the losing end. Talk about stacking narratives. That's. That's right up there with it.

[Tom Fornelli]

And to me like that is one of those stats where the songs, you know when it goes over the course of a long track record. Not just one season.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. Four year. Three. Four years kind of stuff.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah. Like that you, you talk like there's a lot of coaching stuff that none of us will ever understand. Like fans, us. We're not, you know, you can't really get us into the scheme and how things work or what the intention was. Blah blah blah. But typically when you're over performing or underperforming in close games, that's a good indicator of coaching.

[Chip Patterson]

Yep. It looks like either 1 in 11 or 1 in 12.

[Danny Cannell]

Right.

[Chip Patterson]

Score game.

[Tom Fornelli]

That's not good. I mean that's Scott Frosty in.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, tough, tough scene there. Any, any other ones that we. I had Ole Miss at Kentucky out there. I've only got that in there for revenge game angle. Remember? Yeah. Kentucky beats Ole Miss in Oxford last year. But it's a whole new, brand new Kentucky team.

[Danny Cannell]

I just wonder if Kentucky can make that game as gross as last year's was. Like, can they make this ugly? Can they just stay committed to run? Because I don't picture Zach Calzada putting up a lot of points against Ole Miss's defense. And then you just hope Austin Simmons, first road game in the sec. He struggles somewhat. I thought he looked really good. I think Ole Miss is going to house him.

[Tom Fornelli]

Never been there, so I can't speak on it. And you can't really tell on TV which might be speaking on it. How's the environment for a home Kentucky football game? Is that, like a really tough place? I don't. I know neither of you have ever played there, but it's.

[Danny Cannell]

I called a game there and I was maybe not so much the crowd. I was surprised the facilities were so nice because it's basketball school. But yeah, I don't remember it being like ruckus environment. But I think they're, they're, they're not bad.

[Chip Patterson]

I mean, there's, there's some die hards. I mean, that, that is the most hipster thing that you can be like. No, no, no. Kentucky football is my number one priority. You know that. That's. That. I know. I don't, I don't have tickets to rup. Are you kidding? Kroger Field, baby. The big checkout line. That's where I've got my season tickets. Oh, great one from. From the tailgate JMU Louisville sneaky game.

[Tom Fornelli]

I hope not.

[Chip Patterson]

I've got it as a learn something Saturday. I've got. Because nothing that I could really take away from Louisville in week one. But James Madison's good enough to be able to make Louisville uncomfortable and have to do things that we can learn a little bit more about. Make Miller Moss, you know, go to his second read and be able to see how that offense is functioning. And what I did see DK for out of Louisville's week one, Isaac Brown does not look like he's missed a beat. That's. That is a fun, fun running back. And then. Yes, Joey, if. If JMU wants to really make a leave a mark in terms of any college football playoff spots, this is the one right here.

[Tom Fornelli]

I mentioned one more game just so we don't give people an aneurysm. Of course, because I did see a lot of angry, angry tweets about this from yesterday's show. Wanted to know how we could leave Boston College versus Michigan State out of our Big Ten big game breakdowns.

[Chip Patterson]

I had Aiden Childs as a we didn't.

[Tom Fornelli]

We didn't break down the game and they're mad about it. Sparty won a game this last week. They think they're back. So we got to talk about this game.

[Danny Cannell]

I mean, how deep are we going? We're going deep cuts.

[Chip Patterson]

This is not.

[Danny Cannell]

Definitely not big. Damn. Pretty big game breakdown. But have you guys seen the point spread in Virginia at NC State?

[Tom Fornelli]

No. What's it at?

[Danny Cannell]

NC State is a two and a half point home favorite against Virginia. Talk about it early. And the way it looked against East Carolina needing that fourth, you know, fourth quarter goal line stand to get the win there in a game that you were saying you were going to beat the bleep out of them. It's becoming must win time early for Dave Dorn in the NC State Wolf Pack. That's an interesting game at noon.

[Tom Fornelli]

I, I will say I really like Justin Jolly. I really like Hollywood smothers. C.J. bailey is a roller coaster.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah, see because he looked great early.

[Tom Fornelli]

Oh, he is a roller coaster. That is a whoopsie daisy. That guy's gonna be in those charts all season long.

[Chip Patterson]

Virginia, you want to talk about Parker's. Did we get beat that bad? Virginia's net success rate against Coastal Carolina was also one of the biggest beat downs, you know, kind of on the tail end. And look, Coastal Carolina lost their quarterback like a week and a half ago. I don't think Coastal Carolina is a, I don't think Coastal Carolina is going to be bringing back the, the, the glory of those like 20, 20, 20, 21 seasons. I don't think that's a team that's competing for a Sunbelt title whatsoever. But Virginia, with all that new talent and Chandler Morris has been, got a little bit shaken up, but he has been cleared. He's ready to go. I know we heard that from Tony Elliott earlier this week. Yeah, Virginia is better than I think most people realize. And that line is small because Virginia can come into Raleigh and win that football game. I just. Because you know what Dave's got, Dave's got a little bit of crystal ball to him where you jump out to that lead and even your own fans are like, oh God, oh man, what are we going to do with this lead right now? So it's almost like if I'm an NC State fan, I would rather have a back and forth game where CJ has to cut it loose and just be able to play free rather than, you know, have to worry about protecting, protecting a lead coming down the stretch. Anything else? All right, so Thursday 11am Eastern Time. It's the best time of the week. We dig in on our best bets for week two. All of our locks for the week and our moneyline sprinkles come and hang out. You bring likes. We give you locks we give you locks. We move lines so it pays to watch live. You hang out so that you can make sure that you get the best number. And you can follow him on Twitter at Tom Fenell. You can follow him at Danny Canal. You can follow me at Chip Patterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much.

[Tom Fornelli]

Thank you.

[Danny Cannell]

See you. September 4th on Paramount plus someone is.

[Chip Patterson]

Trying to frame us until our names are cleared we're fugitives from interval like.

[Tom Fornelli]

Bonnie and Clyde with better snacks Espionage.

[Chip Patterson]

You still as good a shot as you used to be? Better.

[Tom Fornelli]

Is there love language we like to.

[Danny Cannell]

Walk that fine line between techno thriller and romantic comedy.

[Chip Patterson]

We make up our own rules.

[Danny Cannell]

NCIS Tony and Ziva streaming September 4th on Paramount Plus.