Cover 3 College Football Podcast

Episode: Big Game Breakdown: Keys To The Game, X-factors For Ohio State-Michigan, Texas A&M-Texas, MORE!

Date: November 25, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott

Episode Overview

This extended episode dives deeply into college football's headline matchups for Rivalry Week (Week 14), with detailed breakdowns and X-factor analysis on Ohio State-Michigan, Texas A&M–Texas, Oregon–Washington, and numerous other key games. The panel discusses playoff implications, individual player statuses, coaching mindsets, Heisman favorites, and offers their signature blend of stats, banter, and sharp opinion.

The vibe is classic Cover 3: knowledgeable, irreverent, sometimes argumentative—tailored for die-hard college football fans eager for nuanced insights before one of the sport's most consequential weekends.

Key Game Breakdown: Ohio State vs. Michigan

[03:12–16:45]

Main Discussion Points:

• Rivalry Intensity & Mindset:

  • "Throw out the record books. All that matters is this week. Anything can happen between these teams when they get together because they just hate each other so much."
    — Tom Fornelli [04:28]

• Ohio State’s Mental Hurdle:

  • Recent mental block facing Michigan, and whether last year's national title run changed that mindset.
  • Impact of player turnover; current roster not all carrying past losses.

• Injury Reports & Impact:

  • Ohio State is healthier than Michigan; main WRs (Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate) expected back.
  • Michigan is dealing with key injuries at RB, potentially limiting their run-heavy approach.

• Physicality vs. Explosiveness:

  • “I don't really think they [Michigan] can mash this Ohio State front and stay ahead of the chains.”
    — Bud Elliott [07:40]

• Defensive Matchups:

  • Michigan’s pressure rates have dropped; must blitz more to get pressure, risking one-on-ones with explosive OSU WRs.
  • If Michigan can't win at the line, it’ll be hard to control tempo or dictate terms.

• QB Spotlight:

  • Is Bryce Underwood ready for this stage? “If Ohio State exposes Bryce Underwood to be what he is, a true freshman... there could be a game-changing turnover.”
    — Chip Patterson [13:00]

• Game Script & Spread:

  • Consensus leans Ohio State; expect a tight, nervy game (“sweat in the second half” — Danny Kanell [10:54])
  • Discuss possibility of an OSU blowout ("I think the chances of Ohio State winning by 20+ are about the same as they are of Michigan winning." — Tom [16:09])

Notable Quotes:

• “My biggest concern for Michigan is...their pressure to blitz ratio ranks 88th in the country. That is not a great sign for a pass rush.”
  — Tom Fornelli [11:02]

• “If Ohio State exposes Bryce Underwood to be what he is, a true freshman—game-changing turnover, that absolutely flips any chance that Michigan has of pulling off this upset.”
  — Chip Patterson [13:00]

Oregon vs. Washington Rivalry Analysis

[18:52–27:17]

Main Discussion Points:

• Playoff Stakes:

  • “Just beat Washington and you’re in, right? What could possibly go wrong for the Oregon Ducks in a road game at Washington?”

• Health & Depth:

  • Both teams banged up. Washington’s RB and WR (Coleman and Boston) expected to play.
  • Oregon defensive line expected to exploit Washington’s injury-weakened offensive front.

• Oregon Defense vs. Washington Offense:

  • “If you really believe in this Oregon defensive line...it’s hard to trust Washington in this game.”
    — Tom Fornelli [25:05]
  • Washington struggled offensively against elite defensive fronts (OSU, Michigan, Wisconsin).

• Home Field X-factor:

  • Washington’s best shot with home crowd and lower stakes (playing spoiler vs. playoff pressure).

• Game Scripts:

  • Oregon favored if they establish the run and avoid turnovers; Washington needs offensive "level up" against a quality defense.

Notable Quotes:

• “If Oregon keeps following their plan...mashing people with a run game...I think they're good.”
  — Bud Elliott [26:39]

• “You throw out the record books. I just don't trust [Washington] in this spot.”
  — Tom Fornelli [25:32]

Lone Star Showdown: Texas A&M vs. Texas

[28:29–36:01]

Main Discussion Points:

• Rare Meeting, High Stakes:

  • "These teams don't have a lot of results in the record book recently...throw it out!"

• Power Ratings & Respect:

  • Texas A&M ranks high (top 10) in all metrics but hasn't played the league's best teams; schedule strength questioned.
  • A&M must win to reach SEC title due to weak conference schedule tiebreakers.

• Matchup Focus:

  • Both have dynamic offenses, capable QBs (Arch Manning for Texas, Marcel Reed for A&M).
  • Defense will decide it: Texas’ defense has been leaky lately (4 straight games allowing 30+).

• QB Debate: Arch Manning vs. Marcel Reed:

  • “Give me Marcel...more mobile in this game.” — Danny Kanell [35:18]
  • “I don't think there is a wrong answer. Both are worthy of Heisman consideration.” — Tom Fornelli [35:44]

Notable Quotes:

• “They are undefeated in conference play. Zero in the loss column. And if they lose this one game, their strength to schedule…so bad they're out.” — Chip Patterson [32:37]

• “38, 31, 35, 37 points allowed by Texas's defense in the last four games. I think this one's gonna be...” — Chip Patterson [34:55]

Other Key Rivalries & Playoff Implications

[53:01–68:04]

Iron Bowl: Alabama at Auburn

• Alabama’s Key: Protect the ball, avoid turnovers.
  • “I think it's very, very doubtful that Auburn can actually beat you if you don't turn it over, you know, a lot and give them some short fields.” — Bud Elliott [55:02]
• Auburn’s Hope: Find points (likely 24–30), use Deuce Knight as QB package, try to stress Ty Simpson into errors.
• Ty Simpson's Play: Hot/cold with recent turnovers, can he bounce back?
• General consensus: Alabama is safer if it plays "their game" and limits mistakes.

Miami at Pitt

• Miami defense must dictate; Pitt dangerous with creating turnovers.
  • “Carson [Beck] has to take care of it in this one.” — Chip Patterson [63:45]
  • “Main thing...Pitt's offensive line has major issues...if Miami comes to play, I just don't think Pitt has much of a chance in hell blocking those guys.” — Bud Elliott [64:00]

Egg Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State

• Ole Miss should dominate on the ground; if not it's "headspace".
  • “Mississippi State's run defense is one of the worst in the whole country.” — Bud Elliott [66:42]

Georgia at Georgia Tech

• Expect Georgia to be ready for Tech’s tactics; focus on limiting QB Haynes King’s ability to extend plays.

Heisman & Playoff Talk (Day Trading Danny Segment: [39:23–48:54])

• Heisman Race:

  • Wide open, lacking a dominant front-runner; much of the discussion is driven by betting odds, which “sucks the joy out of the discussion.”
    — Tom Fornelli [41:23]
  • Marcel Reed (Texas A&M) and Diego Pavia get mentioned as possible late climbers.

• Playoff Expansion:

  • General disenchantment with going beyond 12 teams; skepticism about the rumored future “Super League.”
  • “You took Pandora out of the box and now you're trying to put her back in.” — Tom Fornelli [46:13]

Notable Rivalries & Other Games To Watch

• Territorial Cup (Arizona/ASU), Clemson-South Carolina (“anxiety bowl”), Kentucky-Louisville, Northwestern-Illinois (“real ball knowers”), Mizzou-Florida, Tennessee-Vandy, and more.
• Panel especially delights in under-the-radar tension and implications (e.g., Illinois-Northwestern for "a hat" [69:53]).

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• On Rivalry Week:
  “Throw out the record books!” — all hosts, repeatedly (see [04:28], [28:48], [15:41], [79:45])
• On Confidence vs. Caution:
  “I think Ohio State will win. I think they'll break the streak. But I think this could be a sweat in the second half.” — Danny Kanell [10:54]
• On The Heisman:
  “It’s just a nice, simple burger Heisman year.” — Chip Patterson [41:19]
• On Playoff Debate:
  “‘Are they really debating the playoff? ...While we're all talking about, ‘No, we can't go to 24,’ they're just plotting how they're going to form off their super league.’ Open your third eye, people.” — Tom Fornelli [48:09]

Timestamps by Segment

| Time | Segment | |-----------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:12 | Ohio State–Michigan deep dive: injuries, X-factors, keys to the game | | 18:52 | Oregon-Washington rivalry breakdown, playoff matrix | | 28:29 | Texas A&M–Texas, SEC tiebreakers, QB discussion | | 39:23 | “Day Trading Danny” – Heisman and Playoff Futures discussion | | 53:01 | Iron Bowl: Alabama at Auburn, turnover/talent keys | | 62:16 | Miami at Pitt, defensive line edge | | 66:42 | Egg Bowl, Georgia-Georgia Tech, and assorted rivalry previews | | 68:05 | Territorial Cup, Clemson/SC, Kentucky/Louisville and assorted games | | 69:53 | Illinois-Northwestern, “the hat” game; weather talk; humor | | 71:35 | Coaching rumors (Penn State), coaching search jokes | | 72:47 | SMU-Cal, Notre Dame-Stanford: ACC’s playoff hopes hinge |

Overall Tone & Style

The conversation is unfiltered and witty, laced with friendly jabs (“throw out the record books!”), advanced stats, coaching rumors, playoff machinations, and plenty of in-jokes for long-time listeners. There’s respect for the unexpected chaos of rivalry week—and a clear message to expect the unpredictable.

Summary Takeaways

• For OSU-Michigan and other big games: Expect tight, tense battles with playoff implications, impacted heavily by injuries and QB play.
• Oregon and Texas A&M are both in “must win” spots to control their fates, despite impressive resumes.
• Heisman race remains wide open—voters searching for a true star.
• Fans should savor the uniqueness of Rivalry Week, as just about anything can happen and narratives are written in real-time.
• The “record books” are, in fact, thrown out (repeatedly), but the numbers and matchups remain the backbone of sharp Cover 3 analysis.

For more detailed picks and locks, tune in to their Wednesday podcast at 11am ET.