
Loading summary
A
It's the home stretch of the college football season. We're headed out of town. Rivalry weekend. Oh, college football playoff games. The whole experience. While I'm off soaking in the excitement, I realized my home could actually be doing something for me while I'm away. That's right, you can host your home on Airbnb while you're gone. And it's such a practical way to earn a little extra money. I started thinking about it. I A few nights of hosting could help cover part of the trip or even fund tickets for my next game. It's easy and it doesn't take over your life. Just make your space available and then let others enjoy it while you're out having fun. And maybe it's not even a big game. We could do it when we're out for holiday travel as well. You come home to a little extra cash in your pocket and no hassle at all. So if you've got an upcoming trip where whether it's a football weekend, a quick getaway, or a family visit, hosting really does feel like a smart move. Seriously, your home might be worth more than you think. Find out how much@airbnb.com host this episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. A lot of people think podcasts about in depth analysis on college football are boring. Sometimes, sure. But doing the research and understanding every game gives you the knowledge that you need to to make small talk with any sports fan anywhere. It's like banking with PNC Bank. It might seem boring to save, plan and make calculated decisions with your bank, but keeping your money boring? It's what helps you live a more happily fulfilled life. PNC Bank, Brilliantly boring since 1865 Brilliantly boring since 1865 is a service mark of the PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. PNC Bank National association member FDIC.
B
Welcome.
C
Back to the COVID 3 podcast with your hosts Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny.
B
Cannell and Bud Elliott. It's your call for the best college.
C
Football coverage from national signing day to the national championship and everything in between.
B
CBS Sports presents the COVID 3 podcast.
A
And welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Ford Elliott. That's Bud Elliott. That's Danny Cannell. I'm Chip Patterson. Come to you live@YouTube.com cover3 and everywhere. Get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe Smash that like and come and join us in the chat aka the COVID 3 tailgate where they're filling up their coffee, they're getting a pastry and they're saddle it up for a little live early cover three. Big game breakdown. That's right, with the holiday week. Happy early Thanksgiving. Giving to all of you who celebrate. We have big game breakdown here on Tuesday. We have our college Football playoff rankings reaction Tuesday night. Then week 11. Excuse me, week 14. Locks coming up a little bit later on. So with a lot to get to, a lot of big games to break down. Let's roll it.
C
Big game breakdown.
A
Rivalry week. It's week 14, not week 11. I'll. I'll keep my coffee nearby as we, as we get everything firing this morning. Tom, thanks for, thanks for throwing on a hoodie. You know, your, your transition from pajamas to your, your morning wear looks fantastic. Why don't you get us started here? The. It is Ohio State and Michigan. We've got just seasonably frigid temperatures set for Ann Arbor. We got wide receivers that are banged up. And I ask you, Tom, is Ryan Day gonna get tricked into playing man ball against Michigan? Is he, is he gonna get. Is, are the Jedi mind tricks and the weather is this, is this gonna get him to just be like, you know what we should do? We should run the ball 45 times. We should definitely not throw to any of our game breaking wide receivers. Because I've seen that movie before. How do you think Ohio State handles this situation?
B
First of all, the worst thing you could do is look at the past and try to think that that's what's going to happen in the future. Because, Chip, it's rivalry week. And you know what we do in rivalry week?
A
Out of here? Throw them out.
B
Throw out the record books. All right? Doesn't matter. Nothing that's happened matters. All that matters is this week. Anything can happen between these teams when they get together because they just hate each other so much. And looking at the papers. No, I ran the numbers. Ohio State's going to win. They're going to win. No, it's an interesting situation because we have seen there has been like some kind of mental block with Ohio State when it comes to this Michigan game in the last few seasons where they have felt like they needed to prove something to themselves in the world about how they could play physical and dominate Michigan because that's what Michigan had done to them. But I do wonder if, just not even looking at the football aspect of it, but just mentally like going on and winning the national title, did that kind of, you know, erase that? Do they feel like they don't have to prove anything anymore? And also, you've got a new roster, like a lot of the guys who lost those last few games were all there together. A lot of the guys on this team didn't really go through all of it. So I, I don't know about that. But just as far as the matchup is concerned, like, Jeremiah Smith is gonna play. I mean, based on what he said in a, in an interview this week, it really sounds like he's gonna play. I think that they were just being extra cautious by sitting those guys last week. I expect Ohio State to be damn near fully healthy, or at least as healthy as you can be at this point in the year, who I don't expect to be nearly as healthy as Michigan, who's been dealing with a bunch of injuries at running back. I don't know what the situation is going to be there, and I do think if they don't have their backs, that's a big blow for them offensively because they clearly lean on their run game far more than Ohio State. Ohio State's not a great running team, so I think the injuries impact the Wolverines more than anything. And I just wonder if defensively, like, I I. Michigan's still a very good defense, but the last couple of years they had guys on defense that I thought were able to match up very well with Ohio State. They still have good players. I don't know if they have the same depth of dudes that they had, particularly up front, and I think that's a problem in this matchup for them. And then there's just the aspect of, if you watched Michigan this year, like, Bryce Underwood has been a freshman, he's had really good moments that show you why he's really highly rated. He's had bad moments, he's had ups and downs, but he's getting better as the season goes along. Like, this team is 15 straight coming in. But if you look at their schedule, they've. They've played three really good teams, and they've lost two of those games. They lost to Oklahoma, they lost to usc, and then they beat Washington. And Washington, we've seen on the road, because it was in Ann Arbor, a very different team than when Washington's at home this year. So when you look at who they've played, like, anytime they've come close to a team of the level that they're playing this week, they lost to Oklahoma by 11, they lost to USC by 18. Yes, both of those games are on the road, and this will be in Ann Arbor, so it's probably going to be a little bit different. But Ohio State's also better than Oklahoma and usc. So I, I can't sit here and say that Michigan has no shot of winning this game simply because we. I didn't think they had a shot in hella doing it last year. And they're definitely upgraded to quarterback this year and they did it so they can. I'm just not overly optimistic. Like, I think that spread is as big as it is for a good reason.
C
I don't disagree with any of that, really. I, I think when you look at Michigan, like, they still want to be a physical football team, but like, they don't have the same like, consistency of run game that they had when they were elite. Right? Like, they, they do hit explosives with the run game. So like, how do you stay on schedule against Ohio State? To me, a lot of that is what this game will come down to. Ohio State's able to run like so many different coverages and concepts and they run them well. And it's just like. Because they just have like so many smart guys who are also really damn physical and like just, you know, they're freaks. But they're also like, they got it up top. They can run a lot more stuff than you usually see. And you can run a lot more of that if you keep teams in kind of, you know, negative leverage down in distance situations. So like, how does Michigan stay on schedule? Does that mean you're running Bryce a lot more? It is all of a sudden their short passing game going to come alive. I don't really think they can mash this Ohio State front and stay ahead of the chains that way. So like that, that's up. I'm watching for pretty early and often, like, are they just stubborn with it and maybe it works, right? Maybe it does. Ohio State is not. I don't think they're as good up front this year as they were last year, but they don't suck. I mean, clearly it's. It's probably the. What the second best defensive front. I think that they've seen Oklahoma being the top, so, you know, and they, they didn't run it all that well against the sooner. So I guess we'll see how that goes.
D
Couple things I did see. I think Sharon Morris said he expects Jordan Marshall to start. I thought I saw a clip of that. So that's good news for Michigan. Yeah, because I, I saw. What's that?
C
No saying, like reading some message board stuff. I think he was probably could have gone last week in theory, right.
D
Jeremiah Smith. I saw the Caleb Downs podcast. I saw him Say that. The only thing I will say now, bmac and I don't know if you overheard this, bud. We were watching games this past weekend, Ohio State was on and there was some like sideline shot and he goes, he's not playing against Michigan. Like he saw him limping considerably on the sidelines and was like convinced, like he's not going to be back for Michigan. So I know Jeremiah says he's probably going to play. I would expect him to too. This is the type of rivalry game you do whatever it takes. But I do think that's impactful. And a couple things I love channeling my inner bud. Who's the best defense that Ohio State has gone against?
B
Texas.
C
Yeah.
D
And how'd they do?
B
They scored 14 points, but it was the first game of the year and.
D
A first start and I would say Washington was probably the second closest, which that was a game at halftime. The other thing too about Michigan that I do think is unique is they are committed to the run. Like they are not. And that we saw that in Oklahoma. Like they just keep. And then they had the one big Justice Haynes run that broke free. They are committed to it. Like they don't care if they have a few three and outs, they'll go slow. You know, they'll just keep hammering it at you. Which even if they're down two touchdowns, I think it gets really tricky if you get down more than that. But if they can just control the time possession, turn this to an ugly game in nasty weather, which I'm sure they're all hoping and praying that it is snowing and cold and blustery. I didn't see the wind. I don't think it's supposed to be too bad.
A
Oh, it's just cold.
D
I'm not. So I'm not as confident this. I think Ohio State will win. I think they'll break the streak. But I think this could be a sweat in the second half.
B
My, my biggest concern for Michigan is that if you look at them defensively, like their pressure rates ranked 25th in the country, which is fine. It's not really what you're used to the last few years. But the problem is that you, you see that in order to get pressure, they absolutely have to blitz. Like their pressure to blitz ratio ranks 88th in the country. That is not a great sign for a pass rush of being able to generate without bringing extra guys. And if you have to bring extra guys to get pressure, that means you're leaving Jeremiah Smith or Carnell Tate or one of those Guys in one on one coverage and what typically happens to teams that have those guys in one on one coverage.
D
Washington tried to do it on that one blitz they ran earlier in the second half and it was an easy crossing route and hit Jeremiah and he walked in.
A
I just, I, I think this will be nervy. I, I just, I could see there was something about the commitment and again we talked about it on the instant reaction show. You're down Jeremiah Smith, you're down Carnell Tate where he's going to run the football and throw to the tight ends like was. If you really want to fan fiction this, it was as if Ryan Day knows he's not going to have his wide receivers for Michigan too. And that Rudgers was the warm up game and that you're just I Tom.
B
That doesn't make sense, Chip that. Why would you do that? You're just playing with what you have. You're running your offense but you're changing the positions.
A
I can, I could see you get in that game. You trying to play some man ball. You've been playing slow. A low possession, low scoring game. I mean how many times have we said big spread, low total. I agree with you. I think Ohio State is going to win this game. But I just, I, I vibes wise, I just think this is going to be nervy and I think the game is going to play into Michigan's hands in terms of them having a shot now. Do they have enough difference makers against the best defense or one of the best defenses in the entire country? Do they have enough difference makers to take advantage of having a shot late? I don't know. That to me feels like the X factor. The big operative question I can get you to the seven minute mark where you're everyone's like, oh, and maybe a little snow flurry starting to come down and everyone's sort of gearing up because we've lost four in a row and worse, Michigan teams have won this game and, and those games last year were low scoring. I just don't know if Michigan and if Bryce Underwood is ready for the moment. How about that? If Bryce Underwood is ready for the moment in what I think will be a close game in the second half, then Michigan can win this football game. If Ohio State exposes Bryce Underwood to be what he is, a true freshman. Hey, guess what? Caleb Downs can bait you into something, you know, like there, there could be a game changing turnover. That absolutely flips any chance that Michigan has of pulling off this upset. I just think that there Are a lot of conditions pointing this to at least that moment where Bryce Underwood will have a chance.
B
I swear to God. The same conversation about Notre Dame, Pitt a couple weeks ago, Chip.
A
No, we did not.
B
Yes, we did.
A
There is no chance I expressed anything close to the amount of confidence that I have in Michigan to get it to the fourth quarter in the Pitt Panthers.
B
Okay.
A
Run the tape.
B
I only run. I only run the numbers.
D
I think there's a mindset too, and it's kind of similar to Texas, Tex A M. And I know this one's different because you've lost four in a row, but it is human nature that if you lose this game, you're totally fine. You still got a chance for the Natty, you got that backup. And for Michigan, this is everything makes your season pushes you in the playoffs. I do think that is an edge that goes to Michigan.
B
I would buy into that more if Ohio State hadn't lost the last few years.
D
Right.
B
And we talked about like when Ryan Day talked to us in media days, talked about how, you know, they managed the schedule and then they kind of, you know, maybe flipped a switch for the Oregon and Michigan games and they lost both, but they were different approaches and then they flipped the switch again in the playoffs. I. If you've watched Ohio State this year, they're kind of been doing the same thing like Texas the first game of the year. You can't really, you know, do anything with that first game of the year. Yeah. But other than that, they've been moving very slowly in all these other games against these teams that they're favored to beat by four touchdowns. They're not in a hurry to do anything. I just think you're going to see a different Ohio State this weekend than the one you've seen most of the year.
A
If they come out and start playing with tempo. There is under like a classic cover three catchphrase. There is a number that Ohio State can put on the board that Michigan cannot hit early.
D
You guys think there's greater chance for blowout than Michigan upset?
A
I would consider fine.
B
Blowout, yeah.
D
Three touchdowns. I mean, just that thing out there. No, but he would love to run it up on him. Trust me, would love nothing more.
B
I think the chances of Ohio state winning by 20 plus are about the same as they are of Michigan winning. I think they can win by two touchdowns pretty regularly. Yeah, that's it.
A
They could cover this spread and it feels like a blowout. I agree with you there. It's not a total moneyline alt line. I just don't think there's going to be enough possessions for it to get that sideways. But I'll agree with you on that one.
B
I also think like it could be a 17 point win. That feels like a blowout, right?
A
They just know, I mean 147 felt like a, you know, they were down.
D
They controlled the whole game.
A
They controlled the entire final score. 14 7, we watched that game. That did not at all feel like a one score game. A lot, a lot of aesthetics on that one with the late Texas touchdown to be able to make it that anything else here on this one. Of course our best bets for Ohio State, Michigan and the rest of week 14. You can find that on Wednesday 11:00am Eastern Time. Well, coming up on the other side, we turn our attention to big time Oregon, Washington plus Lone Star Showdown, Iron Bowl, Egg bowl and more nukes. Hey, Ryan Reynolds here wishing you a very happy half off holiday because right.
C
Now Mint Mobile is offering you the.
A
Gift of 50% off unlimited.
C
To be clear, that's half price, not half the service. Mint is still premium unlimited wireless for a great price.
A
So that means a half day.
B
Yeah.
C
Give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch upfront payment.
B
$45 for three month plan equivalent to.
A
$15 per month required new customer offer for first three months only. Speed slower 35 gigabytes of networks busy taxes and fees extra.
B
See mint mobile.com Guys, by now you've heard me talk about Collars and Company, makers of the dress collar Polo. They've already sold over a million of these amazing shirts. Well, Collars and company just came out with the new Maverick Performance blazer. This blazer is sharp and wrinkle resistant so you can travel anywhere with it. Just throw it in your bag and it will remain wrinkle free. It even comes with security zip pockets, a sunglasses loop and an optional pocket Square. So visit collarsandco.com and use code TIKI for 20% off@collarsandco.com this episode is brought to you by Jack Daniels. Jack Daniels and music are made for each other. They share a rhythm in the craft of making something timeless while being a part of legendary nights. From backyard jams to sold out arenas.
C
There'S a song in every toast.
B
Please drink responsibly. Responsibility.org Jack Daniels and Old Number 7 are registered trademarks. Tennessee Whiskey 40 alcohol by volume. Jack Daniel Distillery, Lynchburg, Tennessee.
A
Back here on the COVID 3 podcast. Then 3:30pm Eastern Time, 12:30 local. It'll be live from Husky Stadium in Seattle, Washington. Get ready for all your sail gating because the Oregon Ducks are coming to town. Big rivalry on big time. You can watch it on cbs, you can stream it on Paramount. Plus now the Ducks, obviously, we just spent a lot of time with them in that hard fought win against usc. Opened up the instant reaction show. It was kind of the, the propelling win that you. That Oregon needed to round out that resume. And now nobody. Hey, look, no big deal.
D
Just.
A
Just be Washington and you're in, right? I mean, it's just so simple, Danny. All you got to do is beat Washington. That should. No, no big deal. Right? What could possibly go wrong for the Oregon Ducks in a road game at Washington, Right?
D
I mean, what possibly could go wrong? It is college football is what could go wrong. Washington, one of the more surprising losses of the season was when they lost to Wisconsin. That was ugly. Nasty weather conditions.
A
This.
D
I mean, I think Washington played Ohio State. We're just talking about that game. I mean that half was pretty close. I think this Washington team is pretty talented to go toe to toe. And I am curious to see what Oregon does. How healthy are they? They have been banged up. What is Washington? What can they do with Kenyon Sadiq? They do have a bigger secondary that does feel more prepared to, you know, defend a player like that. So I think that's huge. Have you guys checked the playoff predictor on espn? Have you played around with that at all?
A
No.
D
It said that Oregon with a loss is still 89 to get in. I could not disagree with that more.
C
That feels high. When I ripped the FanDuel numbers and ran them through to try to like get the implied probabilities win or loss for each. I think Oregon was like 63 with a loss.
A
That feels closer. I.
B
Right. I ran the numbers. I feel pretty safe about Oregon.
A
No matter what happens here, even with a loss, I just don't think you control it.
B
No, you don't control it. But I still like their chances.
A
Yeah.
B
Yeah.
A
In that pot of teams, you know, your Oregon, your Alabama, your Oklahoma, your Notre Dame. I just. Obviously for some of those it gets a lot more dicey, but I think Oregon needs to win this to avoid a sweaty, sweaty Sunday on selection day. So what about the matchup?
C
So really important. Obviously, like a lot of guys are kind of questionable for Washington, but Fish said that Coleman, you know, their stud running back and Boston, their stud receiver, they. They should play a substantial amount against Oregon. So that's getting those guys back good at the right time. Assuming Fish is telling the truth.
A
Also, Muhammad ran really hard against ucla. Like I, I kind of what Washington put on their, their, their butt kicking boots late night Saturday. We didn't get, I mean obviously reactions going on, but they, they were doing some stuff. Boys. Damon Williams was in that game a little bit too late and he was doing a lot of stuff under center. They were throwing out some tricky formations. We were doing some eye candy. We were slipping some tight ends. I was watching the end of that UCLA game. I said, oh, oh, the old ball coach, the young ball coach with the Pfizer is, he's planting some seeds right now. He's putting some stuff on tape. He's trying to see what's working. I, I think the prep for Oregon started in the fourth quarter against UCLA as he, as he had the Huskies out there working on some stuff. So that, you know, the health issue is a, is a big part of this, bud. What is our update on like the Washington offensive line? Because one note that I had here that I definitely wanted to run by you here in big game breakdown is that while Oregon definitely, as we've documented, has been having the injuries continue to pile up outside of Coleman and Boston, has Washington gotten on the other side of the big injury bug, especially when it comes to the lines of scrimmage?
C
Kind of so that one of their tackles drew as a party Fish said they're going to try to start practicing this week, so we'll see. And then Landon Hatchet, who's one of their other linemen, he, they're like, hey, can he play? He's like again, he's cleared but he had to play with a cast on so, you know, not really sure there. So they're, they're not 100. I think we can say that. Washington, UCLA game. I did go back and watch the end of that because obviously it ended during our show. God, you see they look like unserious.
A
Yeah, I know. That's what I'm saying. It's like it was a scrimmage. They were going through like, like, hey, well let's work on this. Hey, let's try this out. Like we just needed warm bodies to play against. Thanks everybody for coming on down so we could get ready for Oregon.
B
I had the stat for upon further review, but we never got to it. I cannot remember what the exact number was. I think it was 17.5. That was UCLA's offensive success rate which was the second lowest success rate in a single game in a Power 4 game this year versus like Oklahoma State versus Texas Tech. Yeah.
D
I do agree with in the chat.
B
Oh Yeah, I always trust that guy.
D
But I do think Oregon's defensive line is an advantage. But Demon Williams is that wild card. Like he is mobile where he can get out and can make plays. So even while I do agree with the comment, it still does me make a little. Would make me a little bit nervous going against quarterback like that.
A
Well, I mean that's what they have to rely on if, especially if Washington is dealing with these injuries. Like this has got to be a game that is won up front by Amari, Washington, Bear, Alexander, Matteo Youngalay, the rest of that crew. Like they've, they, they can go in and change the road environment and everything that they're playing against because short possessions for Washington that then can set up hopefully plotting ground heavy possessions for Oregon is a great way to take the advantage away from Husky Stadium.
B
And to that point, like if you really believe in this Oregon defensive line in this defensive front, it's hard to trust Washington in this game because if you look at the three best defensive fronts that Washington has faced this year, Ohio State held them to six points in Husky Stadium. Michigan held them to seven points in Ann Arbor. Wisconsin held them to 10. And say what you want about Wisconsin, all their faults this year. Defensively their front seven is very good.
A
And it has him in the playoffs.
B
Yeah, that's why you don't want to see him in the playoff. But just like they, they only scored 10 points against them. But at the same time, Dan lanning is only 1 in 3 against Washington, but he's 1 and oh against Jed Fish. So you got all these numbers, you got all of these results. But it's a rivalry game, boys. You throw out the record books. Okay, so it's. I do think looking at this matchup based on what I have seen from Washington this year, I just don't trust him in this spot. I don't think offensively when they faced good defenses that they have been very good. I do think that playing at home is a huge advantage for them and I do think that this spot is a big advantage for them because like Washington doesn't have a playoff spot to play for, but they can get to nine and three. They are playing maybe to try to get to one of the better premier bowl games and they're also playing to beat Oregon and possibly ruin Oregon season and that's going to mean amazing. Yeah. So I expect them to come full effort. I expect that they will do their best to win the game. I just think it's going to be very difficult for them to do so unless their offense shows a level that it just hasn't shown us at any point this year against good teams.
C
I mean like they, they drove it a little bit on Ohio State. You know, they didn't punch it in but like they moved it at times. I, I just think like if Oregon keeps falling their plan and they don't turn it over, they're mashing people with a run game. Like if, if you matched usc, you can match Washington. If you master, if you like you matched Iowa, you can match Washington. It just I think Oregon secondary is like a little bit suspect at times. So if, if you get like Daman throwing, you know, throwing dots and they they're avoiding pressure and maybe you game script Oregon out of it and Oregon turns it over a couple times like that's how they go down. Otherwise I think they're good.
A
I will say I think. Well, while the comment in general, I I'm not gonna push back on Bud. They did just face what I think is the toughest challenge as a secondary that you're gonna face in the country. Yes, Denzel is like a one of like it's not as though that they. Denzel is not the same player at all as Makai Lemon or Jacoby Lane, but there's just one of a Denzel. And then you just had to deal with USC having two absolute alphas out there and look, they weren't perfect. We talked about all the PIs. You know, we talked about some of the penalties. How this will be called again will end up being important. But I at least like that from a. They're not going to be stunned. You know, this is just kind of the opera the level that they've been operating at in terms of needing to bring your best against some of the best wide receivers.
C
I agree with that.
A
Anything else here? As always, you can watch this on cbs, America's most watched network, the network of stars. You can stream it on Paramount plus a mountain of entertainment Saturday 3:30pm Eastern Time. All right. From a couple of Saturday games into Friday nights spectacular from Austin, Texas.
C
Oh boy.
A
You want to talk about some Tom, these teams don't have a lot of results in the record book recently. Obviously the the victory 17 to 7 for the Texas long hair Horns last year but a long in state rivalry. Tom, Tom, what do we do with the those record books?
B
Well, first of all, as you mentioned it's been a long time since these two teams have really been playing each other. You know, there's been some animosity and leaving conferences and Blah, blah, blah. And Texas like, hi, you had to leave the Big 12 and then eventually following them to the SEC because they're like, oh, that check looks nice. So you have to dig really, really deep in the archive so you can find the record book and then throw it out. So this is, this is a really interesting game to me.
D
Yeah.
B
I, if you look at power ratings, and I wrote this like, my power ratings are going up today. Texas A and M, I eighth. And if you look around, Texas A and M is typically somewhere between, like some, some have them high in the top five, most of them have them between six and 10. And I feel like we haven't talked a whole lot about how A and M is undefeated, but if you look at their power rating, like, we haven't given them the Virginia treatment. You know what I mean? Like, maybe they're playing a little bit over their head, not to the level Virginia is, because Texas A and M is still legitimately good, but they're going on the road. They're facing this Texas team and they're only a two and a half point favorite. And you kind of get a little, I don't know, the difference between these teams isn't as big as their records might suggest. And I just wonder, offensively, we have seen this Texas A and M team, it is balanced. It has been good all year long. They've been able to move it through the air. They have. They probably, I would argue, the best, like transfer portal hit as far as the receiver position and getting multiple guys in one off season between Concepcion and Craver, they have been able to run the ball, although they've been banged up at running back quite a bit at times this year, too. But when you, you know, this is a Texas defense that has been very good all year, except for the last.
A
Few weeks, for the last three games.
B
So it's like I, I come into this matchup. Obviously there's a lot on the line here. Texas A and M's trying to finish undefeated. Get to the, get to the Atlanta, get to the SEC championship game. Play for a first round by hell, maybe play for the number one seed, depending on what happens in the Big Ten championship game. Texas absolutely needs a win to give itself a shot to get into the playoff as an at large. So there's a ton on the line. Two good teams. I think Texas A and M is better, but it's in Austin. I just, I don't know what to expect. I think that this is going to be a fascinating, entertaining and fun game to watch. And I like, I don't think it's going to be a rock fight. I, I think Texas's offense is going to be able to move the ball on the Aggies. I think matchup wise there's some stuff they can do here. Whether they can run the ball, I don't know. But I just think that this one's going to be kind of fun and I'm fascinated. I really have no idea what's going to happen.
C
Would you agree that the top eight SEC teams are in some order like Vandy, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A and M, Ole Miss, George, Alabama, they're all flattened.
A
But did you just take everybody but Missouri? That was the only name I was listening for that I didn't hear you throw in.
C
Yeah, correct.
A
Okay. I would say Missouri is probably closer to the top bunch than the bottom bunch. But I get, I, I will, I'll roll with you if you're just looking for a top half.
C
So if all the favorites win this weekend and A M loses the. Those are the eight teams who will have a winning record in the sec. What's your favorite game A and M has played against that top eight?
B
None. They haven't played it. Right.
C
Yeah, exactly. So this kind of really came to the forefront when we were looking at these conference tiebreakers. Because literally A M's opponent winning percentage in conference if they lose to Texas is 0.2813. I mean that's not good.
B
They went in over a quarter of their games.
A
I mean let's, let's make it simple so they don't. We don't need to put too much math on them. It is an earlier than usual start. But they are undecided. Those guys are.
C
Those guys are 18 and 46 in conference.
D
No, no.
A
They are undefeated in conference play. Zero in the loss column. And if they lose this one game, their strength to schedule and conference play has been so bad they're out.
C
Right? Yeah.
A
Like we, we tiebreakers because they've got no head to head results against other teams that are in the mix for the championship game. And they played no games against teams that that would give them a strong enough strength to schedule. They have to get in the SEC title game at 8. 0. That's like the thin margin. And Tom, I will say they have gotten their Virginia treatment. You want to know why? Because We've got an SEC team with an 110 record and no one's asking for them to be number one.
D
They were before the South Carolina game. South Carolina game quieted that crowd.
B
Joey Galloway was on ESPN yelling that they should be number one.
A
What else from this game.
B
Can'T. I mean, it's, it's going to come down. Like, I think Texas A and M against this Texas defense will be able to score points because I do think that the fact that they're able to run and throw the ball and they're balanced makes them much more difficult to slow down or at least keep out of the end zone completely. Even if you slow them down, I do think Texas will be able to score points itself. It's just. I don't know that. So it's really going to come down to which Texas offense do we see? Do we see the one that has looked great at times against lesser competition, or do we see the one that struggles against better competition? Have they finally figured things out? Can Texas A and M tackle on the perimeter? Because that is one thing you absolutely have to do against Texas because they don't like to play in the middle of the field very often. So if you're. Can their defensive backs, can their corners tackle? We'll find out.
D
The commonalities. Most of those place have been on the road that they've struggled, specifically Arch, like quietly, because it was such a hot topic early. I mean, to have 30 total touchdowns, just six interceptions. You know, he's having a really good year. He's probably not getting credit because it was so lofty expectations, but I'm very. I think this is a huge game for him to carry some momentum into next season to show that you can play the same way against a top tier opponent or else, you know, he's not gonna be under pressure. But there's gonna be a lot of people that point out the teams that he struggled against were the good teams on his schedule.
A
38, 31, 35, 37 points allowed by Texas's defense in the last four games. I, I think this one's gonna be. Oh, how about this one? Oh, let's see if they'll clip this one. Big game coming up in Austin this weekend. Real quick snap call Arch Manning or Marcel Reed. Who would you rather have? Danny.
D
Give me Marcel.
C
Okay.
D
Because of the weapons. Because he's more mobile in this game.
A
Bud.
B
Oh, oh, you got blood in the binder now.
D
I know you do.
A
Say it again, clearly.
C
I think architecture.
A
So you're going Arch Manning over Marcel Reed for this game. Okay, Tom, you know what, Chip?
B
I don't think there is a wrong answer. I think these are both fine young men who have done an excellent job leading their offenses all Season long. I think that both are worthy of Heisman consideration. I think both will receive votes and I think that both are going to play great in this game on Friday night.
A
Give me Marcel Reed. I think that Marcel Reed is playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the sec. I think his command of this offense has gotten a lot better and there is something to be said for if Texas's defense allows Texas A and M to stay on schedule to have like those third and manageable situations where you've got to defend against two game breaking wide receivers, you've got to defend against the run game. And also Marcel doing it himself. There is this Texas Longhorns defense could be just absolutely put in fits by Marcel Reed in third and short type situations. I'll go Marcel Reed. Not that Arch Manning does not lack, does not have the same or does not have similar physical skills to stress a team with the, with the run. I just think that as a, as the quarterback, as the point guard, as the focal point of this offense, I just really like where, where Marcel Reed in this Texas A and M offense is at. He played, as we've mentioned here, 30 of the worst minutes we've seen from a power conference starting quarterback all season long. And I'm not saying that he turned it all around, but he was able to flush it and not let it stink up the rest of that game against South Carolina in the rest of the season.
D
They have both had their moments. Yeah, in a bad way. And they both had their moments to shine. They are pretty similar.
C
I do think that like Anthony Hill being out is, is a big deal for Texas.
A
Like he's in the country. Yes. And it's, and it's been even, it's been a situation where you're, you're even looking at the secondary and you're like, oh man, like Muhammad, like that guy's a player. But like what about the other side? Right. It, you really need to have a couple of corners that you really trust and it hasn't always been super consistent in the secondary for Texas. You know, outside of Muhammad, I think that you're looking at being down a couple linebackers where you've still got some dudes there. But you know, it's, it's guys that are being thrust into new positions. But as Tom said, as always, rivalry game, I'm out. Throw them out. All right. Every single Wednesday. Before we get to more previews of the week ahead, you know, we have to check in.
C
Apparently Sark said he expects Hill to play, so that's Good news.
A
Steve. I know you're a huge fan of the COVID 3 podcast, and at this time of year, you are always locking in, even for an earlier than usual 9:38.
B
I heard Steve listens to NFL podcasts.
A
Steve, get, get, get. Given what we've heard from you at the microphone over the last couple of weeks, I'm just saying, okay, bud, you could, you could be. You could be talking about coaching rumors, you could talk about Anthony Hill status. I'm just telling you that right now you're on a okay, bud kind of status. We'll see who suits up. All right? Every single Wednesday, we got to check in with the market. It's an important part of your financial services outlook. It is day trading, Danny. All right.
D
Market is open. It's a little shorter. You know, market's got shorter hours this week because of Thanksgiving. So just a couple. I have said for a long time I was buying in the Heisman race the winner of the Big Ten championship game. I would dabble as a potential hedge a little Diego Pavia before the Tennessee game. He has, I mean, and he's been a master marketer of himself. Love him or hate him, it's not my style. It's not what I. It's not what I would prefer you to do. But if he goes out there and beats Tennessee on the road and wins this game, I don't even think he has to play that great. It could be one of those ones where the wind masks an average day. Although I think he would have to play great.
A
Like 13 for 26. But he has four touchdowns because three of them are rushing in the red zone.
D
Exactly.
B
Yeah.
D
And I do think there's a chance, as much as I like the guys in the Big Ten championship game, that they might just play okay in that game. Like the, the, the Heisman. It just. You guys feel like it's lost. Like this race hasn't been phenomenal. They're just like the Julian saying and Fernando have just kind of cruised. Like they've been so solid. They're just almost a product of their dominance from their team. And like, I think people are looking for a hero and Diego Pavia is that guy.
A
It be like that sometimes. I don't think that's a problem. It's just like each race is last year when we have Travis Hunter and Ashton Genti, we probably went too hard. Right. We probably did too many segments and too much talking point and just like going harder and harder and harder on it. Yeah. Some years, honestly, it's A nice palate cleanser. We're just gonna. We're looking for the most outstanding player in college football and it is not a bunch of rock stars. It's not a conversation that's gripping the national conversation, but it's the Heisman. We give it out every year. Not every year. Sexy. This one's just a. A nice, simple burger. Heisman year.
B
I have thoughts.
D
Let's hear it.
B
I don't know if I could share them. There are two reasons I think for that. I've discussed one of them before. I think that the way that the sport is changing offensively, numbers just aren't the same as they were a few years ago. Especially with quarterbacks where you're going to get like these eye popping numbers which are going to grab everybody's attention and make you think this guy is a great Heisman player. Like, I think if you look at Fernando Mendoza's overall numbers and you do it in relationship to everything that's happened this season and not the past, you would find that Mendoza's numbers are at the same level above everybody else that the previous winners were in past years that had bigger numbers. I also think it's the way we discuss it. I think that so much of the Heisman race comes down to who's the favorite to win at the sports books this week, where we're not actually talking about the players or the seasons that they're having, we're just talking about their odds. And I think that kind of really sucks the joy out of the discussion.
A
I'd agree with that. I like, you get the notes that say, hey, let's talk about this player. His odds have changed. And you're like.
B
And in October, I'm like, who the hell gives, you know.
A
Yeah, they. Oh, it's like, oh, you know, Bud's talk about implied probabilities, their implied probability went from 15 to 19. You know, like we're it to constantly be talking about the Heisman Trophy from that odds board angle definitely sucks some joy out of it.
D
They need an odds. They need a, a trading angle. Any day. Trading, Danny. To start a trading business where you can trade Heisman futures and you can buy and sell them, you know, and unload them. You know, if you wanted to unload a player that I would sell right now. It is Jeremiah Love. I don't know. I don't care. I mean he could rush for 300 yards this weekend. I just think. Right. I just don't think he win it. If you really go back and you look at the Miami fans have been all over it. You know, he had 33 yards rushing in that game. He had 94 in their loss to A and M. I just don't think there's any. I think he'll get there. I think he'll be in New York City. I just don't think he could win it. The other guy would dabble potentially as a hedge for the Big Ten guys is Marcel Reed. We were just talking about him like he's going to have two potential huge stages if he wins against Texas and if he wins an SEC championship. I think he could be somebody that could swoop in and get it. We've talked a lot about it. Ty Simpson feels done, but I think Marcel Reed would still be somebody then there. And to Garrett's comment where I do think he said. He said it could be a brilliantly boring Heisman if Fernando wins it. I think he's the brilliantly boring Heisman winner.
A
He's gonna be the brilliantly boring one. One.
D
Yeah. Right.
A
You know, I mean, it's like that's he. And again, I think I said this last week or two weeks ago, like, get. Fernando Mendoza is an interesting cat. I can't wait for him to be thrust into the middle of the Capital F football universe.
D
Yeah.
A
Tom thinks it'll get beaten out of him, but I. I look forward to seeing what the man from Miami who went to Cal and wound up in Indiana. Boys, Fernando's seen some things.
D
He's been out there.
A
Battles. All right, Danny, what else we got?
D
The other. I did mention this earlier. I was selling Oregon. If they lose to Washington. That was one of my cells. 89. I'm not buying that. We talked about that. I think that's a coin flip. Ole Miss is the other one there. If they lose, goes to 70 chance. I don't even think that's. And I think if Ole Miss loses their toast.
C
Yeah.
D
So I just think Ole Miss is done. I would sell that. If you think they're going to lose to the Egg bowl or you had a futures ticket there. I have been somebody who has long time been buying up, buying up playoff expansion. Just buying it up. Give me more. Give me more.
A
Until now, you're just like whatever it is, you're just. You're staying on.
D
Until now. Until now. I am selling playoff expansion. We just had the news that they're going to table it until January 3rd, conveniently right after the season finishes. I haven't seen anybody. And this is even the most proponent, ardent playoff expansion people like myself who I always was are saying, yeah, let's keep going. I think we have a Perfect number at 12. I think if you want to tweak it to look at requirements, if it's group of five, if it's any conference champion, you should have to meet a certain criteria, whether it's a ranking, how many Power 4 teams you play, I would be totally okay with that. But expanding it, I do think brings into play a lot of guys that anti expansionists like Fornelli and others have brought to the table. I think it ruins the regular season. I think it really ruins conference championship games. So I am selling playoff expansion, but I think we're gonna get it like, so if you want. Unfortunately, I think they're gonna decide to expand it.
A
Way to sell on principle, even if it's losing.
B
You took Pandora out of the box and now you're trying to put her back in also.
D
Like, we've just. Can't we play with Pandora for a while and just keep it right there?
B
Oh, just like it's always gonna be. What happened?
C
Whose deadline was this anyway?
B
Nobody's right.
C
It was like some artificial deadline ESPN put on itself.
A
Yeah, exactly.
B
It's.
A
To be fair, you do need a deadline if this is going to be a dramatic change. If you were going to introduce the extra games for a 2014 bracket, you can't throw that together in four months.
C
I would agree. I just don't know why the existing deadline was what it was just to.
A
Try to motivate some action, which was. I mean, do you know what it was? It was about as real a deadline as the egg bowl deadline for Lane Kiffin. Right. You know who's got the leverage here? And look, we. Tom and I had to address this as. Just for YouTube, as a breaking news item yesterday. And we were like, so. So what does this mean? It's like. Well, means we're probably going to be at 12 teams for 20, 26, and then we're gonna, you know, talk about it some more.
D
And does it, though, are you. Doesn't make you nervous that they're gonna. No. You still think we'll get one more 12 year?
A
One more.
D
You want to know why?
A
They're too far apart. Nobody can agree. And they have. They have expressly from the center of it. Like Rich Clark, a veteran of this nation, has said, we might just keep going forward with. With the format that we've got. We got everybody on board to switch up the automatic buys, and that's the last time anybody's agreed on everything. And I Don't think we're close enough to get everybody to agree on anything to sign up for another one. This is the other thing I point out, Danny. They're only talking about a six year contract, which means three years from now. Get ready. We're going back into. Let's expand it again, let's rework it again.
B
Are you guys ready to open your third eye?
A
Oh, my gosh. Kyrie, let's go.
B
All right. Are they really debating the playoff? Okay, can Greg Sankey and Tony Petiti really not agree on what they want to do with this fake deadline that they keep extending just to keep us talking about what playoff expansion. Meanwhile, while we're all sitting here talking about, no, we can't go to 24, that's too many. We can't have four auto bids for the conference. Then it's an invitational, it's participation, trophy, tournament. Meanwhile, they're just plotting how they're going to form off their super league. That's really all that they're doing. Tony and Greg are getting together all the time talking about what schools they're going to want, which schools are going to take and how they're going to break it up and how it's going to look. Open your third eye, people.
A
This is, this is such a February conversation. But I, I am, I am pushing back on the formation of the Super League because I simply do not believe that the people who would lose power by the formation of a super league are ready to give up power.
B
They're not going to lose power. How would they lose power? First of all, you don't know that both of them plan to be there for it.
A
The formation of a new entity would inherently mean that the conferences matter less and the people.
B
Greg Sankey becomes the commissioner and Tony Battitti goes on to running whatever network's going to broadcast it.
A
All right.
B
Both are in a lot of power now, aren't they, Chip?
D
All right, I have one more. One more quick purchase. This is a February come one too, because it's a little bit of a longer term play. Regardless of what happens this weekend, I want an exact matchup of the 2027. So after the 26 season, I want to buy a ticket that has Texas versus Oregon in the national championship game.
A
So is Dante next year's Natty?
D
I'm saying Dante's back.
C
Wow.
A
And is Dia the head coach? The quarterback for the.
D
I'm saying Arch is back. Dante's back. Dan Lanning's back. Sark is back. Oh, those pieces are back. I'M saying everything stays the same. And those teams would make for a banger of a national championship.
B
You know who else is back if that happens? Texas.
C
I'll bet you Dante goes first round this year.
D
You think he leaves? I think he would be a first rounder. If he goes. I think he could really be in play for the number one overall pick the following year. And like I think he could command 8 million bucks taking over him this year.
C
Mendoza maybe, but maybe not.
D
I think Mendoza's the. I think. Well, I mean they still have to go through a whole off season side by side, but I think Mendoza is the one.
B
I think six, one, six two. How tall is he?
C
Yeah, he's not like six' four. Anything. Like he's. He's probably like six one, six one.
B
This is six' five.
A
Mendoza's had the measurables that have had him drooling since he was a cow.
D
Yeah. And then I think Dante comes back and I think he probably. He can get 8 million, don't you think? From Oregon?
B
No. 8.
D
Why not?
C
My guess is they already have him on a multi year.
D
Right.
A
I am about at the point with player compensation as coach buyouts. None of the, none of it's real.
D
Right. You know, I think he could make enough where it's like, all right, I can wait one more year. I am totally fine making a boatload of money being the college quarterback at Oregon.
A
What if Jaron Chiave Saga Politelli is out there?
C
Ooh, I think he will be.
B
Yeah.
A
He was committed to Oregon.
D
He's going to be out there somewhere.
A
So.
B
Yeah.
A
All right. Texas, Oregon, exact national title when it's. When it's live on January 21st or 22nd. Book it and thank Danny later. Do you want to go ahead and make the call on the winner?
D
Not yet. Not yet. I just want the matchup.
B
It's another week. He needs another week to figure out who's gonna win.
D
That's right. Next week's day trading. Danny.
A
People always say never wrong, just early, early. I look forward for you to being never wrong. Just late. Watch Texas and Oregon play for the title this year. You know, bracket luck, be like that. We'll see. All right. Coming up on the other side, we're gonna get back into our breakdowns. Looking at the Iron bowl, the Egg Bowl, Miami pit and more nukes. There's a reason Chevy trucks are known for their dependability. Because they show up no matter the weather, push forward no matter the terrain, and deliver. That's why Chevrolets earn more dependability awards for trucks than any other brand in 2025 according to J.D. power.
C
Because in every Chevy truck, like every.
A
Chevy driver, dependability comes standard. Visit Chevy.com to learn more.
C
Chevrolet received the highest total number of.
A
Awards among all the trucks in the J.D. power 2025 U.S. vehicle Dependability Study Awards based on 2022 models. Newer models may be shown. Visit jdpower.com awards for more details.
B
Chevrolet Together, Let's Drive this episode is.
C
Brought to you by State Farm.
A
Listening to this podcast Smart move.
C
Being financially savvy. Smart move.
A
Another smart move having State Farm help.
C
You create a competitive price when you choose to bundle home and auto bundling.
A
Just another way to save with a.
C
Personal price plan like a good neighbor State Farm is there Prices are based.
A
On rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer.
C
Availability, amount of discounts and savings and.
A
Eligibility vary by state. Back here on the COVID 3 podcast, gonna we'll just sort of go see how many games we can get in here before we all gotta head on on our way. Let's start with the Iron bowl vibes aplenty. Let me just just layer it on thick. It's gonna be cold. It's gonna be nighttime. And Jordan Hair and Auburn would love nothing nothing more than to be able to ruin Alabama season. All Alabama's got to do is beat would be all unranked Auburn. Not not all you got to do. It's right there. What could possibly go wrong? What has ever gone wrong for Alabama in the Iron bowl against an inferior Auburn opponent? The deuce is loose now. We're instituting all our different changes. What does Alabama what is the most important thing if if you are putting together the the team meeting talking points. But I'll ask you this first. If you're putting together the team meeting talking points and you can say it's something that we got to do. Like we always hear the coaches you say control what we can control. That is what we do. What does Alabama have to do? And like what are you telling the coaches in the coaches meeting? What are you preaching in the team room? What does Alabama need to do to make sure they win this football game?
C
Just play our game. Hold on to the ball, right? I mean like the, the last time out against a real team, we doubled up Oklahoma and yardage. We just dropped the ball a lot of times. I mean like ultimately I think you're Alabama. You should be feeling great about yourself for the most part, right? Like turnovers happen. We know there's a huge luck component to turnovers. Are you still moving the ball? Are you still preventing the opponent from moving the ball? Yeah, like they've been on a pretty good trajectory with that. Sometimes these wonky turnover games happen, but it doesn't really change who you are as a team fundamentally unless it starts happening at all or like just, you know, all the time. I think like, like specifically making sure your blitz pickups are good, making sure the backs and the O line and the QB as far as your protections are on the same page. I think it's very, very doubtful that Auburn can actually beat you if you don't turn it over, you know, a lot and give them some short fields. I assume that that Stanford quarterback. Yeah, I assume they're going to play him and they didn't play him against Mercer because of the red shirt thing.
A
Oh.
C
So like just kind of went to.
A
Deuce Knight as like a. We're just gonna let Deuce take their doors blown off.
D
Yeah.
C
Honestly to me like that that looked like a lay down game for Mercer. Like they, that they did not. That was like hey, we'll take the check. We're not, we're not playing our real team. We're not playing our real style.
A
Yeah.
C
Deuce is very raw. I know he had six touchdowns or five touchdowns and ran all over the field. Mercer is not Bama. So I just think it's like hey.
A
They might be the Bam in the FCS playoffs, right?
C
Yeah, if they put their full strength out there. So I think you'll probably see Daniels, that offense has moved with some tempo. They look pretty good with Daniels in there relative to what they did look like with Jackson Arnold. But also it's Vandy's defense and like Vandy's defense had a little stretch during that year where they got cooked. Right. Texas killed him. You know Van, it was kind of back to back weeks, right. And then now they seem to have kind of gotten right. So I don't know like what the true Auburn offense is right now, but I, yeah, I'm surprised the numbers this number.
B
First nine games of the season, Ty Simpson had 21 touchdowns and one interception. That's a damn good touchdown interception ratio. Last two games, one touchdown to three interceptions, including two against Eastern Illinois. He dropped back to throw 16 times and threw two of them to freaking Eastern Illinois. Like Bud said, stop turning the damn ball over and you'll win this game. But Auburn cannot score enough points to beat this team unless Alabama gives them short fields.
D
I think this offense, the Auburn offense, I think it is more of A headache than it's been all season long because it was extremely one dimensional And I still don't really trust their past game but they do have some weapons that could provide nightmares. Specifically Cam Coleman who's been awesome. We saw the catches he made against Vanderbilt. It's like you saw what he was hyped up to be. And it's a little bit of a nightmare for Kane Womack too to have to prepare for two quarterbacks because I do think they'll have a package for Deuce Knight. Like I think they'll roll him out there, let him see what he can do. Maybe eliminate in the past game but he's a pretty dynamic runner. And then the Ty Simpson thing, that's a great plan. Stop turning it over if you could fall back on a run game. But like I don't know if Alabama is going to be able to run the ball successfully against Auburn's defense. They haven't been able to run the ball most of the season. Right. So like an offensive line that's a little bit shaky, like it's just easier said than don't turn the ball over. And I, I'm very curious to see what version of Ty Simpson shows up. Like because if you do try to tell him like looks what happened Matier, it's very clear they told him not to turn the ball over. That offense goes into a shell and Ty Simpson is way better and more accomplished than Mattier. But I am curious to see how he does on the road bounce back game. Like I feel like I trust him. He was so good and under pressure all season long until he wasn't and then it's, it's a big spot for him.
B
I'm not saying tell Ty Simpson not to turn the ball over. I'm saying just don't turn the ball over because you showed me for nine games that you're capable of not turning the ball over without a run game. Like that was the whole season until the last couple weeks. So it's just I don't think that is typically who Alabama is. I don't think that's who Ty Simpson is. And I think that if they just get back like Bud said, playing their game, they probably win this one. Probably. But I can't say for sure because we are.
A
I need a super cut of all the record books being thrown out from today's episode. File that request. Yeah, I, I don't know. Auburn's offense needs to score how many points to win this football game?
B
At least 20, 24.
C
I would say 30.
D
Man, I'd feel.
B
Comfortable at 30 for sure. And maybe how many games Has Auburn scored 30 points in?
C
Like FCS games or. Sorry, FPS games scored 30 points.
B
They scored 38 on Baylor, 42 on Ball State, 31 on South Alabama, 33 on Arkansas, 30, 38 on Vandy. So, yeah, they're capable of doing it. I mean, so like those guys, the.
C
The spread. See, the spread says you need to get 27 to feel like.
B
Okay.
A
And again, let's see Auburn weather. We're gonna be what, 30?
D
No. Is it really?
A
No. 40s.
B
Who cares? You start running around in 40 degree weather, you won't even notice it anyway.
A
Well, I. Listen, I am just aware of a general weather pattern. Okay. I didn't know.
B
Yeah. That it gets cold in the winter. You're just aware of this. Now.
C
Everybody give Chip a round of applause.
B
You figured out seasons.
A
There's some cold air. All right. And it's just apparently not getting all the way down there to Alabama. Okay, Speaking of, let's. Let's talk about. Let's talk about acrish.
C
It does get cold in Alabama, though.
A
But does it get 34, 32 and cloudy?
C
So when I was in law school, Obama, my friend Daniel had bought this house that was from like the 1800s and he was redoing it and they had the, like the original flooring on it and we were stripping it like in January and I didn't have electricity, obviously. Like, like a total kind of gut and figure. That was the first time I ever actually like, worked and cold and I had like Florida boy clothes and it was just.
A
Dude, you had a PFG Fish insurance.
C
Yeah, like, like you got like, like, like Crocs. The long sleeve shirt I own is right. You chip. God, you nailed it. Yeah, man. You know, you got, you got your, like, like you got your life tackle gear on, right? Yeah. Got Crocs. The pants are like, allow wind, dude. Yeah, I was. It's snowing outside.
A
Yeah. In. In Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Miami. All you got to do give yourself a chance is go beat Pit and you're beating pit in a maybe letdown spot because they were dancing in Atlanta. Oh, we're Danny. We were wondering if Mason Heinshell was going to get his groove back.
D
He came in hot and he did not lack any confidence. Celebrating early. Yeah.
A
What are we doing with Miami Pit?
D
This is where I think Miami's defense has to take control.
A
Similar.
D
Similar to what Notre Dame did. I mean, they. They got after Mason Heintel all day. That was with Desmond Reed. I think this is where Miami's defensive front has to take control and both lines of scrimmage. That's where I think they need to run the football too, which I feel better about their defense stopping pit than I do about their offense just putting up points on pit.
A
I am terrified about Carson Beck throwing the ball to pit defenders.
D
How many times I.
A
This, this is, this is a pit. Turns you over a whole bunch of times type game where maybe the defense does hold pit to like 23 points, but a lot of yards come up empty if you turn the ball over. And they, they were causing problems for Haynes King. They've caused problems for teams before. I mean, they've got, they've got aggressive defenders who are ready to go make plays on the ball. Got to take care of it. Carson gotta take care of it in this one.
B
I, I do think that like Carson panics when he's pressured. I, I do think that Miami's much better blocking against the pass than they are in run blocking. And I don't think Pitt's pass rush is all that special. I'm not too concerned about it.
C
Like, the main thing about this game that I think it will come down to is like Pitt's offensive line has major issues. I do not think they got that like fixed from what they had against Notre Dame. I just don't think Georgia Tech is any good players up front. Really. Like, that's not. Georgia Tech does not have difference makers up front on that like Miami, Notre Dame level. And if Miami comes to play, I just don't think Pitt has much of a chance in hell blocking those guys. So can Heinch will run around, do some special stuff. Can they scheme it? I like however that works out for you, but I'm. I'm just kind of skeptical they can block it up for 60 minutes. But also Miami needs to kill them.
D
Yeah.
C
Like, do they though? I mean, what Notre Dame killed them two touchdowns.
A
Common opponent would be if it, if it does come down to Miami.
B
If only Miami and Notre Dame had a common opponent.
A
Yeah. Each other. But I mean, it's just if we're going to continue to at least entertain, you know, this dance, then if you are Miami. Yes. You need to win by a larger margin than 22 points.
D
I don't think they have to. I think if they win by two touchdowns and it's comfortable, I think they're fine. I think that's a comparable win. I think so. It depends on how it looks.
C
I mean, my fans that I see on Twitter Are all up in arms because Joey Galloway described their game against the Hokies as a scare or unimpressive. Sorry, I said scare. And then Galloway said it was unimpressive.
D
Yeah.
C
All right.
A
I mean, they did have the ball down a touchdown after successfully recovering an onside kick.
B
This is true.
A
Yep.
B
If the final decision is between Notre Dame to Miami, I don't think it matters how much Miami wins this game by. I think it'll be Miami.
A
I think Miami needs. I think Miami needs to play well because Pitt's a decent football team. It's a good football team. I don't know about very good, but it's a good football team. And you're playing them in week 14 on the road, Thanksgiving weekend on a Saturday.
B
Got a. Miami is a very good football team. Anyways, I'm sorry. Go ahead.
A
I think Miami is a very good football team.
C
Yeah. Yeah, I would agree.
A
It's an important point. They are very well built at an important part of being a very good football team. Mm. They've got some difference makers.
B
Yeah, they do.
D
So does pit creatures. Right? Wasn't that what they were calling them early in the season?
A
I. No, I. You. I was not out here calling them creatures. There's a fine, upstanding young man. How dare someone demean.
C
That's right.
A
These. Demean these players. All right, let's see. Is there an X's and O's angle to the egg bowl, or does this really just come down to headspace?
C
I mean, Mississippi State's run defense is one of the worst in the whole country, regardless.
A
And Kiwan Lacey is great, right?
B
Yeah.
A
If it doesn't play out that way, then I'm blaming headspace.
C
Agreed.
A
Okay.
C
Ole Miss should push them around easily.
B
Should.
D
What about.
A
What about Georgia?
D
Georgia Tech call.
C
Text. Defense is hot. Is just hot trash. And I do think Georgia will be more ready for this game because other teams have been kind of copying what Tech did to them last year a little bit and incorporate into their game plan. So I think if you're Georgia, you've seen more of it this year.
B
I didn't think Georgia Tech had a chance, but then they sent me that Haynes for Heisman shirt yesterday, and now I'm thinking George is in a whole hell of a lot of trouble.
D
I worry about the hits that Haynes King's gonna take in this game. We saw it last year. I mean, he had to come out for a couple plays. I think he's gonna take a pounding now. It doesn't mean he couldn't win the game potentially. I just do worry about him.
A
Any other matchups from. From rivalry weekend that have been, you know, sitting on your notebook burning up, yet you're sort of mulling over thinking about before we, before we turn the page to playoff rankings tonight and then our best bets locks on Wednesday.
C
I would say Territorial cup is pretty interesting. Arizona, Arizona State, like, you know, a chance to get nine. Nine wins still. Some, some conference championship implications there. Who else do we have here?
A
9Pm on Friday, by the way. Keep your eye on that one. That one's going to sneak by if you don't. If you're not paying attention.
C
Like Clemson. South Carolina is kind of an anxiety bowl.
A
No. Yeah.
C
Like they, they both, like, both teams think the other team sucks. And so if you lose to that team you think sucks, you're. You're definitely not feeling great. Kentucky. Louisville is also kind of the same way.
A
Yes.
D
How is Louisville a favorite? I mean, I guess we go by. Everybody said. I. I don't know. All I've heard is Kentucky's the hardest team to beat in America and what. Yeah.
C
When that is, in hindsight, Kentucky might have beat a Ford, a team that had quit.
D
They took Texas to the wire, though. They had Georgia in a pretty good game.
A
I thought it was funny what I saw from Louisville.
D
I don't trust them at all. I think that is. There's something going on in the locker room that doesn't feel great.
A
Well, I just, I liked. It was.
C
SMU is a lot better than Kentucky.
A
It was like, Deuce Adams comes out here like, all right, let's give Brady Allen a try. He has three attempts. One of them's a pick. It's like, all right, Deuce Adams, you're back in there.
B
Saturday night, the Casuals who watch two or three games a year will be watching the Iron Bowl. But the real ball knowers, the real.
A
College football fans, Northwestern Illinois, we'll be.
B
Paying attention to a game where it's going to be 31 degrees. Flurries.
A
Yeah, there you go.
B
Winds blowing at 12 miles per hour. It gets cold in the winter. In the winter.
A
That's the cold air. I didn't know if it had drifted south. I didn't know that. Cold air south.
B
And guess what, Chip, There's a hat on the line, too.
A
That's right.
B
A hat that will protect you from that snow and keep your face warm and dry. Illinois Northwestern, game of the week.
A
It is. It is a little bit cleared out on Saturday night to make sure everybody can get their attention on Illinois, Northwestern and any other games that might be going on at that point.
B
We're not throwing out record books in that game. The only thing we're throwing out is Northwestern, lsu, Oklahoma.
A
I think lsu. Oklahoma is hilarious.
B
Like, there's no God awful. What do you think?
C
Awful.
B
Do you think it's hilarious because you think LSU will win?
A
I. It is Oklahoma against itself. And sometimes those kind of internal wars can be the most entertaining.
C
I mean, look, what I'm told is that Oklahoma can just choose to hit the turnover button. They just, I think, had a moral stance against choosing to do so against Ole Miss. But when they need it, guys, they can definitely do it.
A
They played well against Ole Miss.
C
The defense didn't. They got shredded.
A
It's a competitive game against a good team. I'm not gonna. I. I hear you, though. I turn it turnovers. Lux and Brent Venable deciding that it's a big part of it. Certainly, certainly right there.
C
But yeah, we might finally get Missouri to fall from the rank. Ranked teams.
B
Did you guys see the weather forecast for. For Minnesota, Wisconsin?
C
No.
B
Oh, we might have ourselves some snow games. Oh, yeah.
A
Let's go.
C
Since he's a dog at tcu, What.
B
About Penn State, Rutgers? I mean, is this. Is Terry Smith coaching for his job?
C
That can't be serious, right? Like, if you fire James Franklin to hire Terry Smith, I think the AD gets fired.
A
Hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on.
C
Come on, let's be real.
A
How did Bud miss this? Yeah, of course that's a possibility. This was an emotional firing. Why wouldn't it be an emotional hire?
B
Men are emotional because they're like.
C
Because there's a cooling off period.
B
Oh, like a refractory period?
C
That's correct.
B
Where after you get really emotionally.
D
Yeah.
B
Okay. After your emotions come out, you need some time to.
C
That's correct.
B
Okay.
C
I mean, you know, like, much like, if you're going for, like, justifiable homicide, right. If it's in the heat of the moment, then it's different than if you have, like, you know, let's say eight weeks to cool off after you made the firing.
B
All right.
C
You still at usc?
B
Great uniform matchup. But again, it's not at the same time as a real game, so don't watch it again.
A
SMU at Cal, Notre Dame at Stanford. Literally, the future of the Atlantic Coast Conference in the College Football Playoff hangs in a couple of games out in the bay area on Nov. 29 or Florida State.
C
Don't care.
A
Dude, is the no cast already done? Have y' all already. Meow. Mixed it. Are you gonna finish out the season and then.
C
Well, we still got. We got to finish out into these sponsor deals. We haven't done a show since. Since the NC State preview, so I don't know. We'll get around to it at some point.
B
What's. What's with the start time?
C
People don't care. Like I would not want to be riding an FSU content business right now. Dude, it is brutal. People. People are out.
B
What's with the 4:30 start time? That's weird.
C
Is it ABC or is it on ESPN too?
B
Is there like some sort of like lacrosse game that they're bumping you for? What the hell's going on?
A
Oh, that's legitimately a Maui or not a Maui. That's gotta be a basketball.
D
It might be wedged in game.
A
Yeah, wedged in between some. Some shooty hoops basketball season for the Gators and the Seminoles. So you get a basketball tip off time.
C
That's right.
A
Yeah.
B
There we go. How did you bud? Danny, how do you like guys like that l. That Illinois's women's team handed you this week?
A
Tom?
D
No, no.
B
Just saying it's a bad time.
D
Look for everybody.
B
Bad time for LSU women's hoop content.
C
Can Tom name any women's players on the Illinois team?
B
Hell yes, I can.
D
He's looking it up right now. Yeah. Fingers. Keep your hands up.
A
Oh.
B
Oh. Come on, guys. Come on. You think I don't know.
D
Wi Fi struggling.
A
You know, it's really funny because he's. He's the Illinois women.
B
Destiny Jackson, Erica Finney, Gretchen Dolan, Naomi Benson, Barry Wallace.
A
Does he know I love Hayden Smith. He's mentioning off all the. All the wonderful players for Shauna Greens.
B
I do know Sean agree came from Dayton.
D
Great job.
B
By Josh Whitman.
A
Does he know that they are 58th in Bart Torvik currently. So not quite in the same analytical world as Brad Underwood squads.
B
I mean analytics Chip. Once you get on the court, those analytics throw them out. All right. We're playing basketball out here today.
C
I learned Torvik does women's hoops. Look at that.
A
Yeah. That 86 to 63 win for. For the fighting A line. I getting the unquestionably best game grade from. From Bart Torvik so far.
B
Damn straight.
C
We did.
B
Congrats. Hopefully we'll play some real teams here soon. Really test ourselves.
A
Yeah the. A lot of anxiety bowls elsewhere and I do. I don't know if there is there another game from a. From an X's and O's perspective that jumps out like, this is not exits and O's. Do you know Boston College and Syracuse are playing.
B
Don't care.
C
That's rough.
A
That's my kind of slop. That's it.
B
Southern Ms. Troy is a huge game in the Sun Belt. Winner goes to the Sunbelt Championship. And also James Madison's on the road at Coastal Coast. Been better the last half of the season.
A
James Madison's on the road at Coastal and favored by 22 points. Our locks.
D
What could go wrong?
A
But yeah, what could go wrong?
B
You know, Virginia hosting the Hokies. We touched on that a little bit.
A
Yeah.
C
Pac 12 championship game.
B
Part two, second leg. Yeah, that's right.
A
We've gotta have the aggregate win.
C
Wake Duke.
A
Wake Duke is huge. Because if the Dekes win, that eliminates a lot of the Duke ACC outcomes.
B
Vandy Tennessee Vandy wins. They're sitting there 10 and 2. Like, hey, what about us?
A
Yeah, and I. What do you. 11 games in. What do you think, you know about Tennessee specific to this season? Not just the general Josh Hypo book.
C
They've done a great job rebuilding to where like they didn't backslide back to part of the SEC that we think is like not any good at all. Just overrated by the media.
A
Yeah.
C
You know, like they're not an elite team or like a top 20 type caliber team necessarily. You know, like when they played Georgia, they lost despite catching a lot of breaks in that game, you know, and they played Bama, they lost when they played. Who's the third loss here?
A
Oklahoma.
B
Oklahoma, right.
C
When they played Oklahoma, you know. Yeah. So I, I think they're a, a good team. And if, if you're a good team in a rebuilding year, I think that speaks to like a great job Josh Hypo's been doing.
A
They don't overwhelm.
B
Yeah. Pass rush isn't as good this year as it had been.
A
No, they don't. They don't overwhelm. They don't scare you.
C
But receivers have been much better this year.
A
Yeah, but they're, they're healthier or good. They're. They're a good football team.
B
Plus, like they're just catching those raindrops.
A
The Joey, the Joey Jaguar moon balls just coming down right here.
B
Yeah.
A
I don't know if a different quarterback would have changed Tennessee's outcome.
B
No.
C
Yeah, I agree.
A
Looking at the rest of the sec, I, I don't know if Nico would be enough of a plus. I don't think Aguilar is enough of a minus. I think that the team as it's constructed probably is what they were going to be this year. So capable of winning against Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt obviously has had a better season, but I. I like Danny's angle. Let's just. Let's make this a Diego game. See what Diego can do. Tennessee can turn you over, you know, so if you can avoid the turnovers, have some big, big moments, maybe Diego can. Can get himself and his mom and Theo Vaughn and anybody else who wants to jump on that jet to Manhattan for. For. For the Heisman Trophy.
B
All right, what do we think about Purdue's chances of making the Big Ten scenarios interesting?
A
It is one of the very few outcomes I have not brought myself to actually entertain. Like when I play with all the different conference tiebreakers, I'm. I'm not gonna. I'm not gonna hit that switch. I'm not pushing that button. We'll see. All right, we will be back 11am Eastern time on Wednesday to give you our week 14 locks, best bets against the spread for championship week. Because remember Tom, what are we doing with the record books?
B
Throwing them out.
A
Hey, you can follow him on Twitter at Tom Frenell. You can follow him at Danny Canel. You can follow me at Chip underscore Patterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much.
D
See ya.
B
Now streaming on Paramount plus it's the epic return of mayor of Kingstown Warden.
A
You know who I am.
B
Starring a kettle award nominee Jeremy Renner.
A
I swear in these walls.
B
Emmy award winner Edie Falco.
A
You're an ex con who ran this place for years and now, now you can't do that.
B
And BAFTA award winner Lenny James.
A
You're about to have a plague of.
B
Outsiders descend on your town.
A
Let me tell you this. There's gonna be consequences.
B
Mayor of Kingstowne new season now streaming on Paramount Plus.
Date: November 25, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott
This extended episode dives deeply into college football's headline matchups for Rivalry Week (Week 14), with detailed breakdowns and X-factor analysis on Ohio State-Michigan, Texas A&M–Texas, Oregon–Washington, and numerous other key games. The panel discusses playoff implications, individual player statuses, coaching mindsets, Heisman favorites, and offers their signature blend of stats, banter, and sharp opinion.
The vibe is classic Cover 3: knowledgeable, irreverent, sometimes argumentative—tailored for die-hard college football fans eager for nuanced insights before one of the sport's most consequential weekends.
[03:12–16:45]
Rivalry Intensity & Mindset:
Ohio State’s Mental Hurdle:
Injury Reports & Impact:
Physicality vs. Explosiveness:
Defensive Matchups:
QB Spotlight:
Game Script & Spread:
Notable Quotes:
“My biggest concern for Michigan is...their pressure to blitz ratio ranks 88th in the country. That is not a great sign for a pass rush.”
— Tom Fornelli [11:02]
“If Ohio State exposes Bryce Underwood to be what he is, a true freshman—game-changing turnover, that absolutely flips any chance that Michigan has of pulling off this upset.”
— Chip Patterson [13:00]
[18:52–27:17]
Playoff Stakes:
Health & Depth:
Oregon Defense vs. Washington Offense:
Home Field X-factor:
Game Scripts:
Notable Quotes:
“If Oregon keeps following their plan...mashing people with a run game...I think they're good.”
— Bud Elliott [26:39]
“You throw out the record books. I just don't trust [Washington] in this spot.”
— Tom Fornelli [25:32]
[28:29–36:01]
Rare Meeting, High Stakes:
Power Ratings & Respect:
Matchup Focus:
QB Debate: Arch Manning vs. Marcel Reed:
Notable Quotes:
“They are undefeated in conference play. Zero in the loss column. And if they lose this one game, their strength to schedule…so bad they're out.” — Chip Patterson [32:37]
“38, 31, 35, 37 points allowed by Texas's defense in the last four games. I think this one's gonna be...” — Chip Patterson [34:55]
[53:01–68:04]
Heisman Race:
Playoff Expansion:
| Time | Segment | |-----------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:12 | Ohio State–Michigan deep dive: injuries, X-factors, keys to the game | | 18:52 | Oregon-Washington rivalry breakdown, playoff matrix | | 28:29 | Texas A&M–Texas, SEC tiebreakers, QB discussion | | 39:23 | “Day Trading Danny” – Heisman and Playoff Futures discussion | | 53:01 | Iron Bowl: Alabama at Auburn, turnover/talent keys | | 62:16 | Miami at Pitt, defensive line edge | | 66:42 | Egg Bowl, Georgia-Georgia Tech, and assorted rivalry previews | | 68:05 | Territorial Cup, Clemson/SC, Kentucky/Louisville and assorted games | | 69:53 | Illinois-Northwestern, “the hat” game; weather talk; humor | | 71:35 | Coaching rumors (Penn State), coaching search jokes | | 72:47 | SMU-Cal, Notre Dame-Stanford: ACC’s playoff hopes hinge |
The conversation is unfiltered and witty, laced with friendly jabs (“throw out the record books!”), advanced stats, coaching rumors, playoff machinations, and plenty of in-jokes for long-time listeners. There’s respect for the unexpected chaos of rivalry week—and a clear message to expect the unpredictable.
For more detailed picks and locks, tune in to their Wednesday podcast at 11am ET.