Big Game Breakdown: Keys To The Game, X-factors for Oklahoma-Auburn, Miami-Florida, More! | Cover 3

Summary

Cover 3 College Football Podcast — Episode Summary

"Big Game Breakdown: Keys To The Game, X-factors for Oklahoma-Auburn, Miami-Florida, More!"

Date: September 17, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the biggest college football matchups of the upcoming week (Week 4), including critical Big 12 clashes, Auburn at Oklahoma, and the Miami-Florida rivalry. The crew breaks down keys to the game, X-factors, style matchups, and offers sharp analysis on player performances, coaching moves, and betting angles.

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Key Segments and Discussion Points

1. The "Stock Exchange" — Day-Trading College Football Quarterbacks

[06:20–15:53]

• Danny Kanell presents his weekly "stock trading" segment, buying and selling metaphorical shares in quarterback trajectories.

  • Buy: Jaren Kiawe Sagapolatella (“JKS”) at Cal, who’s been unexpectedly stellar as a true freshman.

    “Cal’s a team that...you might be looking for now? A spot in the College Football Playoff... Their schedule...is one of the easier ones in the ACC. Get in your JKS stock now before it explodes...” (Danny Kanell, 06:47)

  • Buy: Josh Hoover (TCU): Set up for a huge game vs. SMU’s weak pass defense.
  • Sell: Austin Simmons (Ole Miss), citing four interceptions and a move toward Trinidad Chambliss.
  • Buy (High Risk): Arch Manning (Texas), DJ Lagway (Florida): Down on confidence, but poised versus weak opponents.

    “These are bankruptcy pickups...I’m buying them while they're low on DJ Lagway and Arch Manning. Just a dabble, just to see if I can get them...at the bottom of the market.” (Danny Kanell, 13:05)

  • Sell Short: Cade Klubnik (Clemson): Don’t trust his playoff ceiling; echoes concerns about Dabo and a possible “late-stage Bobby Bowden” vibe.

• Quotes & Memorable Moments:

  • “This has been like a Black Friday situation when it comes to the quarterback market.” (Tom Fornelli, 11:40)
  • “Clemson’s...going to have a rough year...for their standard, which is probably 9–3.” (Danny Kanell, 14:41)

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2. Big Game #1: Texas Tech at Utah (Big 12, Noon ET)

[23:58–36:38]

Main Storylines & X-Factors

• Trench Warfare: Utah’s elite O-line vs. Texas Tech’s highly-touted, portal-built D-line
  • Bud Elliott: “If there’s a big advantage on either side, it’s probably good night for the other team.” (25:24)
• Utah’s Tight End Emergence: J.J. Buchanan and Dallin Bentley present new matchup challenges for Tech.
• Tech's Rotating DL: Deep and prolific, but have not faced a line like Utah’s yet.
• Offensive Contrasts:
  • Texas Tech: “Second in country in explosive play rate.”
  • Utah: “78th. Very much a ‘move the chains’ offense.” (Tom Fornelli, 26:57)
• QB Styles:
  • Baron Morton (Tech): Pure pocket passer, needs protection.
  • Damier Dampier (Utah): Dual-threat, must avoid turnovers.
  • First quarter sloppiness possible due to rare 10am MT kickoff.

Quotes

• “Texas Tech spent a boatload of money on the defensive line...But Utah's OL is one of the best in the country.” (Bud Elliott, 25:24)
• “If I am Utah, I think I'm running right at [Tech’s Bailey]...he needs to prove he can hold up.” (Tom Fornelli, 27:25)
• “Damier is a chaos agent...he's been clean with turnovers, but this is where it gets risky.” (Danny Kanell, 29:20)

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3. Big Game #2: Auburn at Oklahoma

[36:38–46:13]

Narratives & Matchups

• Quarterbacks: Jackson Arnold’s “revenge game” vs. John Mateer (“Moneyline Matier”)
  • Arnold: 3–0 start at Auburn, but stats “a little misleading” due to lack of challenging defenses (Danny Kanell, 37:44)
  • Mateer: Electrifying playmaker, but risky, “chaos agent” in passing situations.
• Key Battles: Auburn’s Jeremiah Wright (G) vs. OU’s dominant defensive tackles.
  • Defensive lines on both sides viewed as potential difference-makers.
• Coaching/Strategy:
  • “If I’m Venables, I’m not letting Auburn run the football on me, and I’m not going to lose to Jackson Arnold’s legs.” (Bud Elliott, 39:08)
• Blitzing & Defensive Tactics:
  • Oklahoma’s familiarity with Arnold (their former QB), expect disguised looks, heavy blitzes.

Prop Bets and Betting Angles

• Mater QB rushing prop:

  “His rushing total on FanDuel is 52.5 right now.” (Danny Kanell, 44:14)

  • All hosts leaned OVER as a “strong look.”
• Weather/Wind: Brief discussion on potential weather factors (likely moderate, not a true game-changer).

Memorable Exchange

• “[Mateer] is a chaos agent.” (Tom Fornelli, 40:52)
• “If this game goes over, I have a feeling it’ll be because Oklahoma scored a touchdown on defense.” (Tom Fornelli, 45:03)

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4. Big Game #3: Miami at Florida

[48:18–56:12]

Storylines & Tactical Matchups

• Florida:
  • DJ Lagway is a project under pressure; offense has been the clear limiting factor.
  • Hosts call for heavy run-game reliance, especially vs. Miami’s pass rush (Ruben Bain & Akheem Mesidor).
• Miami:
  • “Really good test for Miami,” who’ve looked excellent, but need to handle Florida’s strong lines.
  • Carson Beck: Played great, but “two picks last week,” some questionable throws.

    “The pass to C.J. Daniels...the incredible catch wasn’t [an example of] a great throw.” (Danny Kanell, 50:23)

Trench Play

• “Matchup of the week is probably Bain versus Barber. Barber’s a really nice looking tackle for Florida. Bain...plays at a different speed...” (Bud Elliott, 50:51)
• If Florida can’t pressure Beck, “it’s game over.”

Receivers & Playmakers

• “Miami’s receivers are good. Yet to really see it from Florida’s. They need somebody in that unit to step forward...” (Tom Fornelli, 55:53)
• If offense continues to sputter, Florida’s defense may “say f*** this, why are we even out here?”

Fun Segment

• The “Escape Room Bowl” nickname for this matchup.

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5. Other Matchups — Rapid Fire

[58:12–end]

Arizona State at Baylor

• Relique Brown (ASU) breakout: Used to be a highly touted recruit, now finally flashing as a legit RB option.
• Arizona State’s problem: Over-reliance on Sam Levitt to Jordan Tyson in the passing game.

  “Run the ball more!” (Bud Elliott, 60:46)

• Baylor’s issue: Still seeking balance—Sawyer Robertson has thrown “a million times.” Can they establish the run game?

SMU at TCU (Iron Skillet)

• Key question: “Can SMU cover anybody?” Young secondary may get torched by Josh Hoover and TCU’s dynamic WRs.
• If game total under 70: “Green-light go” for the over due to expected shootout (Bud Elliott, 65:06).

Tulane at Ole Miss

• Jonathan Sumrall’s Tulane team is physical and well-coached; Ole Miss needs to run the ball more.
• Austin Simmons reported back from injury, but hosts still like the “Trinidad Chambliss” angle for Ole Miss at QB.

  “Ole Miss needs to run the damn ball...I think you can run a lot on Tulane with your personnel.” (Tom Fornelli, 63:28)

Other Quick-Hits

• Missouri vs. South Carolina: Missouri very strong favorites; South Carolina at bowl eligibility risk if injuries persist.
  • “They’re in real danger of missing a bowl.” (Bud Elliott, 68:30)
• Wyoming-Colorado, Arkansas-Memphis, UCF-Kent State: Brief notes on motivation, defensive issues, and coaching trends.

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Notable Quotes

• “Texas Tech spent a boatload of money on the defensive line...Utah's OL is one of the best in the country.” — Bud Elliott (25:24)
• “This has been like a Black Friday situation when it comes to the quarterback market.” — Tom Fornelli (11:40)
• “The man’s a chaos agent.” — Tom Fornelli, on John Mateer (40:52)
• “Can DJ Lagway finally start living up to the potential, or is he just going to be the next, like, really talented guy who could be a great quarterback but never figures it out?” — Tom Fornelli (55:53)
• “Miami’s receivers are good. Yet to really see it from Florida’s. They need somebody in that unit to step forward...” — Tom Fornelli (55:53)
• “Run the ball more!” — Bud Elliott (60:46), summarizing Arizona State’s need for offensive diversity.

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Section Timestamps (MM:SS)

• Intro & Overview: [03:40]
• Stock Report/Day Trading Danny: [06:20–15:53]
• Texas Tech at Utah Breakdown: [23:58–36:38]
• Auburn at Oklahoma Breakdown: [36:38–46:13]
• Miami vs. Florida Breakdown: [48:18–56:12]
• Rapid Fire Games/Other Matchups: [58:12–end]

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Tone & Delivery

• The pod maintains a playful but sharp analytical tone, mixing inside jokes ("Escape Room Bowl," “stock picks”) with deep schematic breakdowns. The energy is friendly, rapid-fire, and passionate, with each host bringing unique expertise and wit.

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For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

This episode provides everything a fan needs to prep for Week 4's biggest games: offensive and defensive keys, player and coaching storylines, betting insights, and watchability factors. Not only does the show highlight the star players and marque matchups, but it also reveals under-the-radar X-factors and trends that could swing these crucial contests.

Transcript

[Chip Patterson]

This episode of the COVID 3 podcast is presented by Cash App. For a limited time, only new Cash App users can use our show's code when they sign up for a reward. Just download Cash App, use our code, cover three, and send $5 to a friend. Within 14 days, you'll get $10 right in your account. Terms apply. That's money. That's cash app. On September 19, producer Jordan Peele asks what. What are you willing to sacrifice? In a new horror film called him, starring Marlon Wayans and Tyreek Withers. Stay tuned to hear an exclusive trailer for the film.

[Tom Fornelli]

Right now, do I look at you or the camera?

[Bud Elliott]

He'll just look right at me.

[Chip Patterson]

He'll just ignore the camera.

[Bud Elliott]

There are a lot of people saying.

[Tom Fornelli]

You could be the next great quarterback. I can already see it now.

[Bud Elliott]

Him running down the tunnel with the.

[Tom Fornelli]

Crowd, chanting his name. I hear you've been invited to train with legend Isaiah White himself. Care to elaborate? I want to be the goat.

[Bud Elliott]

Cameron King.

[Tom Fornelli]

Great meeting you.

[Bud Elliott]

I'm a fan.

[Tom Fornelli]

That's crazy. I damn near worshiped you growing up.

[Danny Cannell]

Who are you?

[Chip Patterson]

I'm him.

[Tom Fornelli]

Who are you?

[Bud Elliott]

I'm him. Let's play a little catch.

[Tom Fornelli]

We going to the lake. You want to play at your highest level?

[Bud Elliott]

You want to be a legend? Cause let me tell you something.

[Tom Fornelli]

The game. Who are they?

[Bud Elliott]

Just going to toss the ball around a little. You want to hit this? You can't handle it.

[Tom Fornelli]

I understand. Shut up. Oh, too slow. Wait, what are we doing?

[Bud Elliott]

That man smile about to be on the floor. This how you do, teammate?

[Tom Fornelli]

What is this?

[Chip Patterson]

Enemies.

[Bud Elliott]

In this game, violence is rewarded. So learn to enjoy it.

[Tom Fornelli]

Get your together. Activate my cam. Are you okay? I think something's off. You want to know what you're getting yourself into now? We playing some football. Don't have to do this. Activate my. I've never been more certain of anything in my life. And how bad does Cameron Cade want it? I ain't a killer, but don't push me. I'm not just gonna give it to you.

[Bud Elliott]

You got to take it.

[Tom Fornelli]

For me, I'm a killer, but don't push me.

[Bud Elliott]

What if I say no? Think of it as a gift from the gods.

[Tom Fornelli]

So what are you willing to sacri.

[Bud Elliott]

Welcome Back to the COVID 3 podcast. With your hosts, Chip Patterson, Tom Fernelli.

[Danny Cannell]

Danny Cannell, and Bud Elliott.

[Tom Fornelli]

It's your call for the best college.

[Bud Elliott]

Football coverage from national signing day to the national championship and everything in between.

[Tom Fornelli]

CBS Sports presents the COVID 3PO.

[Chip Patterson]

And welcome back to the COVID 3 Podcast. Here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fenelli, that's Danny Cannell, that's Bud Elliott. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you [e-mail] cover3 and everywhere. Get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe smash that like and come and join us in the chat a.k.a. the COVID 3 tailgate. We're at 9:43am Eastern Time. Preston jumped in and said can Jackson Arnold revenge game overcome the aura of Moneyline Matier and Brett just a little while later said someone tell me how to look at this Utah Texas Tech game. Both have had zero tests. Well guess what, that's exactly what this show is for because here on a Wednesday we're going to be doing big game breakdown going inside the matchup of that Texas Tech Utah Big 12 battle out in Salt Lake City of Auburn traveling to Norman to play Oklahoma. Plus we'll give a spotlight on the latest in the Billy Napier tour as as they travel on down to go face Miami. The iron skillet always gets our attention. Arizona State and Baylor. Listen that that game in Salt Lake City is not the only very important Big 12 Conference game we've got this weekend. Two Lane Ole Miss and so so much more from the week four slate. We got a little bit of time on the Big Ten matchups and similar to the way we would if we were on CBS Sports Network. I want to make sure that you know we we offer up one last word. Anything else on Michigan, Nebraska or Indiana Illinois that we did not get a chance to get to on Tuesday?

[Tom Fornelli]

I have a correction to make.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay.

[Tom Fornelli]

On the show I said that Michigan's touchdown against Oklahoma came after the muff punt. It didn't. It came on a one play 75 yard drive when Justice Haynes broke loose for the long run after the muff punt. They couldn't get a first down and had to kick a field goal. So my point stands. The offense really struggled.

[Chip Patterson]

But yeah, the point stands is we did not see a 12 play 75 yard drive. We did not see a march all the way down the field. So yeah, all very very much a part of that before we get it. We got day train Danny coming up in just a little bit too. Is Dabo Sweeney involved in day trading?

[Danny Cannell]

Danny, there is a relative to Dabo Sweeney that will be featured. Well let's Dino Sweeney related a related trade.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay, well let's before we talk let's let's maybe take any debt boy conversations and let's put it in that let's check out the stock market with day trading. Danny.

[Danny Cannell]

I feel so much better today as the market opens. Ding, ding, ding. I have my trading logbook. I couldn't find it last week. Now I've got it. So I've been able to register my trades, went back and noted the ones from last week and I'm going to start it off with ticker symbol.

[Tom Fornelli]

Oh.

[Danny Cannell]

JKS Jaren Kiawe Sagapolatella.

[Chip Patterson]

Let's go, let's go, let's go.

[Danny Cannell]

You're gonna buy up some JKS stock. You better say the dang name right. My man is on fire. He was impressive in some blowout wins, but then in the win against Minnesota, clean sheet, three touchdowns with the dub. Cal's a team that I thought, I think when we did the win totals, like good luck Justin Wilcox. Like you'll be looking for a job next year. You know what he might be looking for now? A spot in the College Football Playoff. Because their schedule, much like Georgia Tech's, is one of the easier ones in the acc. Get in your JKS stock now before it explodes and people nationally tart start taking notice of the lefty who's slinging it. True freshman looks great. Got there in January. This has been an unbelievable find for Cal.

[Chip Patterson]

It's fun.

[Danny Cannell]

Thank goodness the ACC has a team out in the West Coast. It's kind of turning some heads. I'd love to see them surprise. I kid with the playoffs kind of because their schedule is very manageable. I wonder if they can keep it up. But he is a special, special talent.

[Tom Fornelli]

Perfect culture fit. A lefty at Cal.

[Danny Cannell]

That's right. The Calgorithm's got to clip that. Wow.

[Chip Patterson]

Before we move on, I'm glad you mentioned that because there is the. But look, it has become one of the topics du jour especially they can't come off the win against Minnesota to say like, well, look how many games. Like how many games are they going to lose? Are they going to be this year's Indiana? Are they going to show a. Are. I don't want to pour cold water on this, but are we positive, you know, are we positive that we. This is a trustworthy operation to go through and win every single game that you're favored to win? Because you can tell me, you know you're gonna be favored to win this many more games, but no. Okay. I, I think we've got a real crab in a bucket scenario with some of these ACC teams where we call all their. We call SMU schedule easy. Like go look at. And I just, I'm Not. I'm not ready to declare that there is a team that I trust enough to go through all of those games and meet expectations every single week.

[Danny Cannell]

To be fair to Cal, I don't trust Georgia Tech either. Like I think they will. Like they're favored in every one of their games until they face Georgia. But it's the acc. The ACC has done ACC things for a long time. We've seen more surprising outcomes than if Cal would lose to a Boston College. You know, like we've seen more surprising things. So I'm saying get in now while the stock is a little bit lower, while the, you know, the cat's still not out of the bag. Get you some JKs early. This is another one now. I should have bought them last week. I, I would say I dabbled in this stock before the season. I'm gonna buy up some Josh Hoover, who only has two games. Last time we saw him, he was out in the national stage. He was slinging the rock against North Carolina. He's one of the best quarterbacks in the country and guess who he faces now with the iron skillet game? SMU. Who owns the ACC's worst pass defense. Who we already saw Sawyer Robertson slice and dice, especially in that second half, bringing them back. Josh Hoover is going to have a field day against that one. Also Chip and I, we're doing some picks later. Might like the over in that one. Think it could be another track meet type game. But Josh Hoover is pretty special so I'm going to snatch some of his stock up before that game.

[Bud Elliott]

I, I think TC's got the offensive line for that as well. Man. Like, they look pretty good up front.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, agreed. They look really good.

[Danny Cannell]

Haven't been tested too much yet, but we'll find out. I don't know if they're going to get tested against, against SMU either. All right, I've got to sell this one. Pains me because I, I had him as one of the hottest quarterbacks coming into the season and I thought he could take his team to the playoffs. Mentioned this the other day. I'm selling my Austin Simmons with four interceptions and a little banged up. And guess who I'm buying up in his place? Trinidad Chambliss, out of Ferris State to replace him. So this is a little stock maneuvering where we're moving around our portfolio a little bit. So it's the same basket of stocks in that Ole Miss offense. But Trinidad Chambliss, I think, I mean they're favored against Tulane. They should be able to win this game, I think it could be a little bit closer. Tulane's playing pretty good football, but I think this is going to be a more tougher decision for Lane Kiffin. If Trinidad Chambliss keeps balling out. Maybe it's not a decision at all. If he plays like he did against Arkansas, where he was absolutely on fire, I don't think it'll be a decision at all. I think you just keep rolling with him. Somewhat concerned, you know, how do you sit on being the starter at Ole Miss? But from what I've seen so far, somebody who helped them win a championship at Division 2 Ferris State. I'm buying Trinidad Chambliss.

[Tom Fornelli]

You know, I will say this like selling. Selling Simmons. A lot of. A lot of folks in college football media have been taking heat for preseason quarterback rankings. Listen, it is. This has been like a Black Friday situation when it comes to the quarterback market. It is just in a very bad place compared to what everybody expects overall. This is, this is a time where the smart investors like Danny can take advantage of the undervalued assets.

[Danny Cannell]

That's right.

[Bud Elliott]

You don't buy.

[Danny Cannell]

You don't buy them on the way down, you buy them on the way up as they're coming up. That's why I'm getting some Trinidad Chambliss there. Speaking of quarterbacks who have been atrocious, this is highly risky. This is something I do not recommend to do this with any money that you take seriously. More I'm gonna buy. I'm gonna dabble in two stocks. I'm gonna dabble in some Arch Manning. I'm gonna get him. Now, while it's about as low as it's been now, we talked the other day about how I'm concerned about his confidence, and I am. They play Sam Houston state, they're a 40 point favorite. He's got to play his way out of this slump. He has to. He absolutely has to play his way out of this, out of this slump. Then they go to Florida. I. If he gets his confidence up that defense, I wouldn't be surprised if they're able to win that game. This is a highly risky pick, though. Like I am willing to admit, this is highly risky. As well as a quarterback who just threw five interceptions and he did it. I'm talking. These are like, these are bankruptcy pickups. I mean, these are filed for Chapter 7 for most of their fans, or 11. I don't know what chapter it is. One of those filings they filed. I'm buying them while they're Low on DJ Lagway and Arch Manning. Just a dabble, just to see if I can get them maybe at the bottom of the market. Not saying they're Heisman winners. Don't touch those stocks. But I'm buying that maybe they're not as bad as we thought, but we.

[Chip Patterson]

Need to get our legal team in order to make sure that we scrub the tape because I fear allegations of market manipulation. When Danny comes on here on Monday, he calls our Canadian, Ben Simmons, Markel. Folks, Monday drives the price down.

[Danny Cannell]

And then, you know what? I actually. You know, I actually appreciated when he was talking to the media. He's like, I just have to play better. Didn't make any excuses. I like that. So I think he's got what it takes. Like, for people that say, oh, he played at a small school and it's been so bad, but it's been ugly. I am not sugarcoating it. I am concerned about him, but I'm dabbling. Just gonna buy a little bit here at what hopefully is the low point of Arch Manning's career. Like, again, I don't think he's Heisman Trophy. I still think Tex misses the playoffs, but I think this could be the low point. We hope. If not, we'll see. And DJ Lagway, if he realizes his defense is only giving up two touchdowns on the season, maybe he'll stop throwing it to the other team. That's what I'm hoping for him. That's why I'm dying there.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, we'll get into that game a little bit more later. But I. That is a. The fact that DJ Lagway is so clearly. And the offense in general is so clearly the issue for Florida right now is not. Was not on my bingo card, as they say.

[Danny Cannell]

Say one more play. I don't know if people are aware of this, you know, if you're not super involved in the markets, but you can sell stocks short, which means you can make money on the way down. Old Fornelli advisors got my ear on this one. I'm selling my Cade. Come selling even more like, I sold my stock. Now I'm shorting it to say, I don't know what's going on. I know Dabo's out there and he's pounding the table and he's saying, fire him if you don't like it. I just. I wonder if Cade Club. Nicknot that Kate, Clemson fans are not gonna like this, but do you remember how emphatically Dabo defended DJU like he was. I. I wonder if Cade's confidence is finally rocked to the point where I think he can be good. I just don't think he can be great. I think they win this weekend, but I. I'm selling short Cade Clubnik as a playoff quarterback. I don't think Clemson makes the playoffs this year. I don't think they're b bailed out like they have been in the past. I think it's just going to be a rough year for Clemson, which for their standard is probably 9 and 3, which is incredible. It's a problem that a lot of schools would love to have. I just. I think there's something different about this team.

[Chip Patterson]

Did you watch? I'm guessing. I mean, you probably got super cut the highlights, right? But. Oh, yeah, the full 54 minutes of. Of Dabo.

[Bud Elliott]

Watch it all, did you?

[Chip Patterson]

It's. It seems to me that the, the things that are getting under Dabo skin is not. I mean, I know that Dabo's a huge fan of the COVID 3 podcast. I know that he's aware of a lot of the national voices. It sounds to me like it is some of the voices that are the closest to the program. You know, that the frustrations from powerful individuals and from, you know, taste makers within the Clemson community, that their frustrations are the ones that he's like, hey.

[Tom Fornelli]

Whoa, whoa, whoa, what?

[Chip Patterson]

Look what I've done for you. And then that's leading to a little bit of a schism within the Clemson football fan base, right, where there's. I've. I've seen some reasonable voices that are like, hey guys, grass might not be greener. You know, he like, there's. There, there is at least it seems to me that he is not doing the Roy Bus in the way that, like, nobody believes in you. I think he is frustrated at some of the fans and because he. I don't think he listens to every single message board post or radio call. But I think that there's probably some, some people within the Clemson community that he does hear from and he's a little bit frustrated with how they're talking about his football program right now.

[Tom Fornelli]

Strong market indicator for Dabo has been he tried to have a pizza party, ordered all those pizzas, was told they weren't going to get the discount this time. Just. That's a problem.

[Bud Elliott]

It does sound very late stage Bobby Bowden.

[Chip Patterson]

Ish.

[Bud Elliott]

And Dabo's a little young to be pulling this card. You remember all that stuff with Bobby and Anne, man, at the very end, it was like, you know, they're, they're lucky they have me, they'll never win without me. All that kind of stuff, it, it got kind of, you know, just covering Florida State back then, I was like, oh, this feels a lot like what Bobby? Like, man, Clemson's a hell of a program and Dabo has done a major part to make it that. But this also feels like the if not now win type year for them because they haven't exactly crushed quarterback recruiting recently. So, you know, what, are they going to go out and buy somebody in the portal? Maybe so they were willing to do so this past year, but like they got a lot of guys who won't be on this team next year.

[Danny Cannell]

Shout out Fox Mulder in the chat who said 0Stockton references in the stock exchange. Stay tuned. That could be a preview for next week as Georgia is on a buy this week.

[Tom Fornelli]

Like Dabo said he could go somewhere else and win. So like let's say just for hypothetical, Tabbo leaves Clemson, whatever it's whether it's on his own or he gets fired. Is Florida hiring Dabo? Is Alabama hiring Dabo just based on how things have gone there and just his approach to running a program right now in this current environment, how attractive do you think Dabo is on the open market?

[Chip Patterson]

I could see Florida hiring dabo.

[Danny Cannell]

After a 8 and 4 season.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Danny Cannell]

I would want to have assurances that he'd be willing to embrace the portal more. That's what and I think that's something that is his biggest issue still. And I've rooted for him to buck the trend. I like what he's trying to do. I just think you're. It's like trying to win in the NFL just through the draft. Like you're not taking advantage of free agency and I appreciate his attempt, but I think we're seeing returns that it's not great against the teams that are.

[Chip Patterson]

So the Cade club. Nick, you know what, what is Cade Clubnik at his best right now? Like when, when Kate because there are. There have been plays through the first three weeks of the season where you're like, hey, that was a good play, Kate. You know, like we can put together a super cut of. It's not a really, really long one, but we could put together a super cut of some good stuff.

[Danny Cannell]

I mean, did San Antonio Williams make that much of a difference? His left tackle was out as well. Like, so they are going to get pieces back for him. But that's where I feel like he's a player who can really be good if he's got good support around him. And I think the best quarterbacks are guys like Haynes, King, Diego Pavia. I think you've seen from John Mateer, like historically great quarterbacks are when things are taken away or you learn lose certain pieces, you're able to elevate your play to make everybody around you better. And I haven't seen that from Kate.

[Chip Patterson]

When I was thinking about this during the Georgia Tech game and it is because of the offense he is running and his offensive coordinator, but I said, oh, he's doing Max Duggan stuff. And Max, Max Duggan was fine. Max Duggan led his team to a national championship game. Max Duggan was very productive. That's a, that's a pretty good college quarterback. That's not the first round NFL draft pick kind of grade and conversation that was going into this season.

[Danny Cannell]

I never bought that though. I never bought. I liked him as a college quarterback. But even when I showed him up, started seeing him on draft boards as a top 10 pick, I'm like, I don't see it from a potential standpoint.

[Tom Fornelli]

I, I don't think Cade would start at every program in the country compared to like two teams have. But I think Cade is good enough to where there isn't a Power 4 school. I don't think he could play at it just depending at you know, like this talent around him. I, I just don't think Clemson has the talent around him. Like I, I'm not a big Cade guy as far as his NFL projection or being one of the top quarterbacks in the country, but I do think he's talented enough that if he had a very good offensive line and he had very good run game and he had really good receivers around him and he was just a point guard, he'd be wonderful because then all you'd really need from to do is get the ball out and scramble when you need to.

[Chip Patterson]

I mean and you talk about call from coming from inside the house, got Eric Macklane running through exos, coaches, film, just calling out everything. Why are you bringing this guy in motion? That's an extra hat into the box. How are you even going to win? Running the football into loaded boxes. I mean, tense times in the upstate. Sorry, I didn't mean to derail that but I know there was a lot of Clemson conversation in the tailgate. So if we could include it. Anything else from the stock report?

[Danny Cannell]

Nope, that's it. Markets closed.

[Chip Patterson]

Markets closed. Coming up on the other side, we turn our attention to some of the biggest matchups in week four. It is big game breakdown and more. Next.

[Tom Fornelli]

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[Chip Patterson]

Always just literally a boatload of fun to be able to just dive into these matchups. Our best bets are going to be coming on Thursday for our Locks edition of the COVID 3 podcast. But today on Wednesday, it is big game breakdown. All right, let's start out there. Noon Eastern Time, 10am Mountain Time, Salt Lake City, Texas Tech coming into town to take on Utah. There was the comment in the tailgate at the beginning of the show. How do I even look at this game? Neither of these teams have had to really, you know, face any real competition. I mean, we thought Utah, Utah had in name a power conference opener, but all the evidence since then suggests that I don't know if we can take much out of that game, but I do think these are both the most. I think these are both the most dangerous teams in the Big 12. I think they both have the highest ceilings in the Big 12. And now we get to see maybe the first of two matchups, you know, especially because they'll both have a long journey before the end of the season as well, but just a massive part of the Big 12 title race. But first word here. Where do you start to look at this and feel like you do have a grasp of how these two teams line up against the each other.

[Bud Elliott]

Okay, so I think the one noble is that Utah offensive line against the Texas Tech D line. Like Texas Tech spent a boatload of money on the defensive line. I don't know if they got quite what maybe that same amount of money would have got us last year, but they definitely got a lot of quality pieces who can play big time college football and are good players. And that unit so far has absolutely wrecked everybody up front. Now granted, like you said, the schedule has been tissue paper soft. On the other hand, Utah's offensive line has looked pretty damn good as well. That tackle tandem is fantastic. They're going to get a lot of 11 man run game with with the quarterback. Damn Pierre and that pretty inventive Jason Beck scheme. So I'm really excited. Like that's the kind of the key matchup of studs v. Studs to watching this game. It's probably like the one that if there is a big advantage there on either side, it's probably good night for the other team because like I think both teams would probably go into this game expecting a bit of a stalemate there, right? Like this is our good on their good. We probably won't dominate them. They probably won't dominate us. Like Bailey is more of a pass rusher for Texas Tech than he is a run defender. So you know, I'm interested to see how they handle him. Like do they, do they read off him in the QB option game? Do they, do they try to just run right at him? I don't know but like that's going to be something I'm watching early on for sure. And Utah's got a Young tight end, J.J. buchanan, who I think this guy might be a stud man, like really athletic kid. He's playing like actual snaps for Utah as a true freshman. Doesn't happen a whole lot. So how does he look in the blocking game? They kind of split him out so far. Haven't really had him in the run game stuff just as yet. Not like not a ton. He's a little, you know, a little light for now. But how much does he factor in.

[Tom Fornelli]

Here as well and like going further on that Tech defensive front like what we've seen from them in three games, that a lot of this is, you know, opponent dependent and the fact the scores just show it. But they've also been very deep on their defensive line in that they are rotating guys in and out and we're like David Bailey's the headliner, Romello Heights, the headliner. Like a lot of guys have been getting snaps and they've all typically been playing pretty well. I think their linebackers are playing very well in the run. They're flying to the ball. Jacob Rodriguez has been fantastic. And just overall, you look at the stats like offensively they've been incredible and that's getting a ton of attention. But they're fifth in success rate on defense, they are sixth in rushing EPA on defense and they're 19th in pressure rate. So they've been good at both stopping the run and handling against the pass. So that's point. So this is going to be big against Utah because as Bud mentioned, like, the Utah offensive line isn't just the best offensive line in the Big 12, it's one of the best offensive lines in the country. There are NFL players on it. So that is going to be a huge matchup for them. I love the idea of what you're mentioning with Bailey because if I am Utah, I think I'm running right at him. I'm looking where he is pre snap and that's where I'm sending my running game. So because he needs to prove he can hold up against it, that's been the knock on him in the scouting community for a while. Nobody questions his ability to get after the quarterback and that's where things are interesting because both of these offenses have been very good, but they're kind of going about it in different ways. Tech is extremely explosive. Their explosive play rate right now is second in the country. They trail only USC, whereas Utah's 78th. They're very much a move the chains kind of offense. And their passing game has been fine. It hasn't really been explosive. Dampier has been the main guy. He's been with the focal point or the fulcrum of the offense has been. And what they do is they put together long drives. Damp here keeps the chains moving with his legs when he has to or just making the throws when he needs to. They get to the red zone and they finish like they have been to the red zone on 52% of their possessions and they're averaging 5.63 points per trip when they get there. That's a very, very effective approach to playing football on offense. So if you're Texas Tech, are you going to use a guy like Rodriguez to spy damp here? You probably will, but how effective will it be and can you continue to get pressure on him? But can you get pressure on Damn Pierre while keeping him hemmed in the pocket because if you're getting pressure but allowing him lanes to escape, you're going to kill yourself.

[Danny Cannell]

I think that's the biggest dynamic in this game is the completely different styles of the quarterbacks. Baron Morton will sit back there and pick you apart from the pocket. They will take their shots down the field and they have been hitting him but they've got to protect him because he's not the most elusive. He doesn't like to escape the pocket. He is more of a pure pocket passer. And on the flip side, Dampier is a weapon as a runner. The most important thing for him, he's been clean with turnovers. That was something he struggled at last year. And I would imagine when you face better competition like you are this weekend, that becomes a little bit more risky. Something to keep an eye on. Like how does he take care of the football in a game like this when it's a little bit tighter, more, less margin for error, you're going to be asked to do more even carrying the football. But they've got a difference maker in the run game and Texas Tech does not. I hate that this game's at 10am local too, by the way. Yeah, I hate it for these kids. Like I just. And I hate it for the fans, like having to get there. What do you get there at 7am to tailgate? It's just, it's going to be a little bit lethargic at the start. I'm sure they have a great scene. It's great field, great environment there at Rice Eccles. I just hate for Everybody that's at 10:00am Yeah, I think that's kind of.

[Tom Fornelli]

A big factor here because like you have to survive the first quarter because it's reasonable to expect that the play early could be sloppy. And if you make a couple mistakes because of like the weird time, nobody starts games at 10am like who's ever played a game at 10am at home. But yeah, I think the first quarter will be huge.

[Bud Elliott]

So the chat does point out that Utah fans are probably drinking a little bit less than normal fans, so they may not need a lot of time.

[Chip Patterson]

I, oh, I, I disagree. Don't get your BYU generalizations confused with your Utah generalizations because the colors on the uniforms are not the only things that Utah fans and BYU fans don't always see eye to eye on.

[Bud Elliott]

Gotta make make the special call for that, that, that, you know, unleaded Coca Cola. Let's see here. Other things I'm interested in. If Texas Tech has to end up blitzing a Lot, which right now they've not had to because they've only able to get, get home with four. Who wins that matchup? Because so far Tex Tech DBs look great. I think Utah's receivers are just kind of meh to me. Utah does a lot to scheme those guys open. Like if you have to have a lot of one on ones. How well does Texas Tech hold up in the back end? Because I'm not really sure how much pressure Texas Tech's going to get with four. You know, do they end up blitzing a lot here? Do you risk the big play? As Tom noted, Utah has been like, like absolutely deadly in the red zone for the most part, with the exception of when their kicker missed all those field goals last week against Wyoming in kind of a weird, you know, obvious flat spot.

[Chip Patterson]

Great. Come on, bud.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, on the other side like, like with these, these Tech stack receivers have been awesome. And I don't think that Utah has faced a lot of really good pass catchers so far. UCLA's guys are actually okay to me, but everybody else they faced, not, not really. So, you know, like looking at that, there are a lot of fun unknowns in this game, but these do look like so far probably the two best teams in the Big 12.

[Danny Cannell]

I know Joe McGuire that would, that was Joe McGuire's big concern coming in the season. He felt really good about his front seven. The back end was what he was worried about. And they've been trying to figure out who's standing out, who's there. Still haven't been tested. I think like they're gonna get tested.

[Bud Elliott]

In this game and it may not be a problem.

[Tom Fornelli]

Right?

[Bud Elliott]

We'll see.

[Chip Patterson]

Also your boy, your boy Buchanan's not the only tight end that we could see, you know, in here. And that's where it's not necessarily. You might not have that huge game breaker on the outside, but DALLIN Bentley's got 11 catches for 112 yards so far on the season. That's second on the team in receptions. Hunter Andrews got eight catches through three games so far. So it might not, it might not be that true game breaking wide receiver. It might be some matchup issues for Texas Tech in terms of being able to defend against not just maybe 11 personnel, but even if they start bringing out multiple tight ends as receiving threats, seeing how Texas Tech matches up with that, because that's not what Texas Tech always has to face. I mean this is where Utah and the Big 12, when they arrived, we thought about them as having the opportunity to be a Little bit of a stylistic challenge in addition to being the, the elevation that they have at Salt Lake. And, and yeah, I, I as much as I, you know, try to draw the, the line between Utah and BYU, it, it still is 10am and the student section, the muss ain't going to be rocking like on those Pac 12 After Dark games when they were, you know, kicking off at eight local and you were able to really see them rise to the occasion.

[Bud Elliott]

You mentioned Dallin, Dallin Bentley. I, I mean he was playing for Snow College in 2022. So I trying to think like when, when was this kid, like they might have like a 24 year old tight end here. Like he's a big dude. That, that's a nice advantage for Utah.

[Chip Patterson]

For, for Texas Tech. Do you see the environment as a real difference maker? Like are they, are they gonna be ready to go up there?

[Danny Cannell]

And you know, altitude as well. Altitude is always something that I just always remind people haven't played in Denver at altitude, it's just more challenging.

[Bud Elliott]

Utah is to me the biggest home field slash like road split of any team in the country. Like that that's legitimate. We talked about this two years ago in Florida. Went up there and Florida just kind of self destructed. Right. Like, and that's not like, like trying to crap on the Gators. They just. Utah plays extremely well at home. That is a tough place to play.

[Chip Patterson]

When. One last thought here. I don't want. It doesn't have to be the final one, but. And what's the tempo approach, bud? I mean you're our tempo guy.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah. So I can't see Utron, I cannot see Utah trying to match the tempo of Texas Tech.

[Chip Patterson]

Right.

[Bud Elliott]

I think they'll try to hold the football, you know, not let Texas Tech get out there and run. Texas Tech can do a little bit of variable tempo, but I'm not really sure how much of that is just they've had huge leads in games like last week. They clearly let off the gas there in the second half, probably in preparation, you know, for this ball game. If I'm Texas Tech, I'm trying to go fast as I can.

[Tom Fornelli]

That is even harder to do at altitude though.

[Chip Patterson]

I was gonna say even at altitude. You know, like that's, I just, I.

[Bud Elliott]

Mean Morton has been playing so well. Like he looks back to full health. He looks. And he also looks better than he's ever looked. So I want that kid with the ball in his hands as many times as possible.

[Chip Patterson]

And if I'm Utah, I want to put A body on him.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Utah's been a little bit better defensively than I thought they would be. I thought this, this offense was gonna have to carry this team this year. And the defense has come to play. Yep.

[Tom Fornelli]

When's last Clutchers beware. Utah should hit him.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, yeah. Did. Was it last season that. That somebody tried to come for us for that one?

[Tom Fornelli]

Oh, my God. Notre Dame. We're so furious at us for suggesting that somebody should hit their running quarterback.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Go watch that.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. Texas Tech played at Wyoming last season or the season before.

[Bud Elliott]

Texas Tech played at Wyoming ago.

[Chip Patterson]

Two years ago.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, it was my Twitter tip. It did not go well. Even though. Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

They threw like three or four picks. They had some crazy bounces in that thing. Yeah. It might have been two years ago.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. So at least they will. They will have at least been as a program, you know, as a. As a staff. They will have handled this once already. All right, let's, let's. Let's take a look at the ongoings in Norman, Oklahoma. We of course the. When the headline is the quarterbacks, but the quarterbacks deliver the narratives, it's impossible not to start there. Jackson Arnold goes back into the stadium where he was the starter and then he was benched and then he had to get back in there and then his play caller changed and his offensive coordinator changed and. And he needed a fresh start. So here he is three and oh, as a starter, eight touchdowns to zero turnovers so far through three games with Hugh Freezes Tigers. And of course he's going up against Moneyline Mater who I saw is already here in. In the tailgate hanging out. We always appreciate it. We money line material. We do need you on Thursday. Make sure you can come here. But if you want to drop your. Your tips now is definitely a good opportunity for that as well. Dk, when you're considering the mindset and the skill set of these two quarterbacks, what do you think is going to be some of the big impacts that you're looking for in this matchup?

[Danny Cannell]

So I think Jackson Arnold's stats are a little bit misleading. I mean they look really good on paper, but they have not really excelled in the past game yet considering the weapons that they've got and Cam Coleman. Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton, that to me and I don't picture Jackson Arnold rushing for over 100 against his old team either. Our Mason Thomas being out for the first half for Oklahoma is something to keep an eye on, but I think it's going to be a long day for Jackson Arnold. I think Brent Venables, I think this team, I think they're going to be ready for him. And then Mattier or Mattier who by the way has a lot of fans among the female colleagues of ours at the CBS Sports HQ office. They have taken notice of his incredible playmaking ability.

[Tom Fornelli]

You know, Sexist.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah, I'm just so I said they're really impressed with his play. He has delivered. I was really impressed with Oklahoma. I thought it was a kind of a letdown game potential like flat start. They came out from start to finish and dominated at Temple. In a sleepy environment, their defense might be one of the best in the SEC home field. I think it's going to be rocking. I just feel like this is going to be a long day for Jackson and Auburn.

[Bud Elliott]

I, I tend to agree. I, I think one of the matchups here to watch that you got to be really like really jacked up is Jeremiah Wright, the guard for, for Auburn against what's probably the best interior players in the country, certainly the sec. Right. I mean you get, you get David Stone, you get Jackson, you get Dominic Williams who Oklahoma paid up for huge last year and he really didn't play all that well for them last year and this year he's come on and played like it's his NFL money year, not just his transfer portal money year like that. Auburn has been so good on the offensive line. I know we said early on that they, they were told internally that they had like six draftable players on the O line eventually if they all hit and man looks like they're hitting pretty good. So if I'm Venables I, I'm not letting Jackson Arnold beat me or like with his arm or I'm daring him to do so. Like I'm not going to let Auburn run the football on me and I'm not going to lose to Jackson Arnold's legs. So if he can beat me throwing the ball which is very possible right because they got some serious weapons on the outside there for the Tigers. That's what, that's what I think happens there with Matier.

[Danny Cannell]

I He does not sold are you.

[Bud Elliott]

And he makes so many big time throws man. But there is a lot of like stuff that he does that so far he has gotten away with that could lose a ball game for okay like unnecessary job passes I would put in that category. They, they run, they run this little, little mesh play with, with the deep crosser behind it and he so far doesn't seem to notice that at all. And Just like I'm like that guy. The ball needs to come out now. Like that play is open and he runs around, he scrambles and he finds a completion later on, but that's not really the design and eventually that could get him in trouble. He's still really good. Like I mean quarterback playmaking wise, I don't think there's been anybody in the SEC who's been better. But like as far as sustainability, to Tom's point, there are some questions.

[Tom Fornelli]

The man's a chaos agent.

[Bud Elliott]

I love him all year last year. Right. So. And no, Oklahoma certainly knew what they were getting with him. It's not like a new offensive coordinator is going to unlock something potentially. Although maybe you hope some of this goes away with, you know, the second year in a row of O.C. ben Arbuckle, who also came, you know, from Wazoo. I think Auburn's defensive line is key here. Their interior has been a little bit better than I thought it'd be. Falk is a total beast on the edge. That is where this game could be won or lost. Like if Keldrick Falk Keller could beat Oklahoma by himself. Right. If he just abuses these young tackles for Oklahoma, which is possible that Auburn's got a real shot to win the game if they neutralize him. I think it's OU going back to.

[Tom Fornelli]

What you were saying there Danny, about like Auburn's passing attack, like we've talked about it, they have very good receivers and PFF grades aren't the end all be all. Like I disagree with some of them based on what I see and based on what they put up at certain games. But just using them as a guideline here. Auburn's passing offense score is 59.0, which amongst the Power 4 teams ranked 60th of 68 teams. Now if you rank 60th of 68 despite having the talent you have at wide receiver, what does that tell you the problem likely is? So I, I agree with you, bud. If I'm Brent Venables and we just saw this two weeks ago, I'm going up against a team that I feel plays one handed because of where they are right now. Like Michigan played one handed because they don't really trust in their receivers and they were missing their tight end in that game. They had to try to run the ball to have any real safety success. So I tried to take that away and forced the quarterback to beat me. They couldn't. Bryce Underwood really struggled. They're going to do the same thing here. It's going to be more Difficult because of Auburn's receivers. But I think that when I look at this Oklahoma defense like it is very, very, very, very good up front and especially I think in the back, I think the secondary is very good. Cortland Guillory I think is one of the better corners that I've seen in the country so far. And I think that's he's probably going to find a whole lot of Cam Coleman in his life this weekend. And I think that he's capable of really kind of slowing him down on the other side going back to Matier. Like this isn't the lock spot, but we can't take player props on the locks. John Mateer rushing overs looking. Looking a little, little appealing to me because if you've looked at Auburn's defense so far this year, they miss a lot of tackles, especially in the run game. And they have already allowed 136 scramble yards to quarterbacks, which ranks 131st nationally. So quarterbacks that have been able to get in the open field and move on and when they have Auburn has missed tackles doing so. I like Auburn's defensive line, the back end of that, the back seven, I'm not as sold on. So I think Mater could scramble a lot if he's under pressure or just because he's John Mateer and he decides I want to go running for a little bit and maybe hit a linebacker, you know, because that's just who John Mateer is. So like, yeah, that's where I'm looking at. That's going to be really interesting to see if Auburn can hem him in and force him to be a pocket passer because as Bud was just going over. When he's a pocket passer, he misses a lot of things. He makes mistakes, he tries to take shots that aren't really there. So that's what my goal is if I'm Auburn defensively. But I just don't know if they are capable of doing it.

[Danny Cannell]

His rushing total on FanDuel is 52 and a half right now.

[Tom Fornelli]

I would take that.

[Bud Elliott]

We do. We all. I don't know. I mean this got bet down a lot, but I think at open under was. Was a very attractive play. I mean open 52 and a half.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

I mean I'm not, I do not disagree with the move and I'm not scared.

[Bud Elliott]

I hate it now, but I definitely like it a lot of 52 and a half. Yeah.

[Tom Fornelli]

How much do they. How much is Oklahoma blitzing in this game?

[Bud Elliott]

Like they decided to blitz Underwood a Lot. Yeah. Just on the idea they could cover those Michigan receivers and maybe, maybe Bryce wouldn't process it quick enough, which they were like 100 right on the first count and somewhat right on the second.

[Tom Fornelli]

I just feel like they're very familiar with Jackson Arnold. They know what he struggles with, especially pre snap. I think you are going to see a whole hell of a lot of blitzes from Oklahoma. Like, if this game goes over, I have a feeling it'll be because Oklahoma scored a touchdown.

[Bud Elliott]

On defense, I mean, you can guarantee Venables is pulling up his catapult and clicking like filter by turnover in practice. Filter, quarterback Auburn or, sorry, quarterback Jackson Arnold Filter. What coverage did we play here? How did we disguise it? And that's probably what you'll see. Like they have all the practice film from last year. They know what stuff this guy struggles to read. I is probably like the, the master of disguise of our time.

[Chip Patterson]

So I think it is very interesting in comparison to, I mean, correct me if you all saw this differently, but Dave Aranda said, oh, my gosh, we cannot get beat by these wide receivers. These wide receivers are so good. We're going to do everything not to get beat by these wide receivers. Jackson Arnold eats them alive. It sounds like this is the opposite, which is the only thing Jackson Arnold can do to beat us is with his legs. So let's make sure that he doesn't do that and see if he can make throws to these very good wide receivers.

[Bud Elliott]

If the wind is high in this game, who does it favor?

[Tom Fornelli]

Auburn.

[Danny Cannell]

Auburn.

[Bud Elliott]

I think so too.

[Chip Patterson]

Keep the ball.

[Danny Cannell]

Is there a forecast alert here?

[Bud Elliott]

Was that Fighting Irish595 in the chat says wind is supposedly pretty high.

[Danny Cannell]

Interesting.

[Chip Patterson]

I mean, it's Norman, Oklahoma.

[Danny Cannell]

It definitely leans towards the under even stronger.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, if I, I as a meteorologist, amateur, as far as wind is concerned, it's Wednesday. Wait till Saturday.

[Chip Patterson]

Great call.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Looks like 8 mile an hour wind, according to one of the weather sites here. That's not really high enough to do something.

[Chip Patterson]

Come on, come on. Just you get that through gate six, you know, Come on, chat.

[Bud Elliott]

Eight mile an hour wind. We're googling over eight mile an hour.

[Chip Patterson]

Coming up on the other side, we continue our run through some of the matchups in week four with a look at the Miami hurricanes welcoming in Florida Gators and more nukes.

[Tom Fornelli]

When did making plans get this complicated?

[Bud Elliott]

It's time to streamline with WhatsApp, the.

[Tom Fornelli]

Secure messaging app that brings the whole group together. Use polls to settle dinner plans, send event invites and pin messages so no one forgets mom 60th and never miss a meme or milestone. All protected with end to end encryption. It's time for WhatsApp message privately with everyone. Learn [e-mail] this episode is brought to.

[Bud Elliott]

You by State Farm. Checking off the boxes on your to.

[Tom Fornelli]

Do list is a great feeling. And when it comes to checking off coverage, a State Farm agent can help you choose an option that's right for you. Whether you prefer talking in person on.

[Bud Elliott]

The phone or using the award winning.

[Tom Fornelli]

App, it's nice knowing you have help finding coverage that best fits your needs. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.

[Chip Patterson]

Back here on the COVID 3 podcast. So a note if you would like. Illinois, Indiana, Big game breakdown. We gave that to you on Tuesday's show went inside the matchup, what to expect and so much more Totally unbiased straight down the middle analysis as you've always come to expect from the COVID 3 podcast.

[Tom Fornelli]

I thought it was.

[Chip Patterson]

It was. Oh, I, I. We all have our biases. And your biases are you understand that team better than a lot. I think that that bias is an advantage. I think all of our biases give us an advantage. Never at all blinded and never. All right, speaking of not being blinded by biases, let's talk about Florida and Miami. No boys, saddle up.

[Bud Elliott]

We'll be watching this one closely.

[Chip Patterson]

What's Danny, you, you said you're gonna buy in at the bottom for Djanga Lagway, are you? I mean, I don't know if he's gonna have success against this Miami defense.

[Danny Cannell]

I thought it was Lagga Layla. I don't know what it was, but it was really a good one. So how many times did they throw it against LSU? 49, 52.

[Chip Patterson]

40 something. Yeah.

[Danny Cannell]

Cut it in half versus Miami, please. Billy Napier, get your back. Jaden Bog going. Try to run the football test out Miami's rushing defense. We know what they can do off the edge with Ruben Bane and Keem Mezadore. Those guys are absolute freaks. Why would you risk DJ Lagway back there just sitting back there saying, all right, let's throw it 50 times versus Miami. I think this game is a really good test for Miami. I really do. And I think Miami's really good. I think, I think Carson Beck has been awesome. Did throw two picks last week. A little minor like note to keep an eye on because in these types of games and the pass that he made to who was the receiver? C.J. daniels. Yes. The incredible catch wasn't a Like the, the throw that you're watching film and being like, good job. It's like great play from your receiver. This is something to keep an eye on in this game for Carson Beck because I think he'll have more pressure than he's faced yet. Even including from what we've learned from Notre Dame, I still think Florida is very much alive in this game to, to possibly win it. I think Florida is a really tough out, but I would expect Florida to run the football a whole heck of a lot more than they did against lsu.

[Bud Elliott]

I would tend to agree. I think Florida's offensive line has played really damn well this year. Like they have a number of future pros on that line. And matchup of the week is probably Bain versus Barber, right? Like Barbers are really nice looking tackle. Florida Bain is, it's like a total stud. Just plays at a different speed relative to his body mass than most guys that size can ever hope to achieve. You know, with Florida's passing game, I, I'm probably not going to give them the explosive looks. I'm just going to make Lagway and those guys be on the same page and deliver the football accurately and, and you know, we got a lot of crap for this in the off season and because we were all constantly cavitying, hey, if he's healthy, right? If he's right, I think, you know, I had him number one in my quarterback rankings like based on upside. And the downside is, oh, he was pretty banged up over the summer, probably more than Florida let on. How much did he actually get to work with these receivers? And Eugene Wilson was hurt over the Summ summer and Dallas, you know, got put in a boot and those guys play like a team that has not played together very much. Florida's run defense has been nailed so far this year. You know, past defense. I, I don't think that some of their pass rushers that they hyped in the off season are quite as good as maybe they hoped they would be. But I mean the guns kid is really nice. Like they have some real players up front who I think Florida is better long lines of scrimmage than the Irish were. And I think they will give Miami more of a test in that way. I thought C.J. carr was pretty good overall against A M actually and showed some, some real promise. So, you know, can Lagway play at that level? Can the receivers do anything to help him out in this game? I don't know. But if Florida can get home with four somehow because Beck has just. Dude, he's been able to make, like, not only make a sandwich, but operate an entire subway back there if he wanted to. He probably should get an IL deal off that and just like, you know, hey, all right.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Okay. Extra pickles. Here you go. Right? Yeah. Yeah, exactly. All right. You want to make it a foot long so that no free ads. But, like, if Florida can't get pressure, this is probably a good night. And so far they have not been able to get pressure against a pretty crappy LSU offensive line, and they were not able to get a whole lot of pressure on usf. So can that change? If not, it's game over. But they have athletes.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, it's hard because of the, like, narrative and vibes surrounding these programs, like, based on how things are going right now. But I think you have to ignore that when looking at this matchup because you touched on it, bud, like along the lines of scrimmage. We know how I feel about Miami. I think it's the best combo in the country by far. I think Florida's just pretty good, too. Like, they're very good on the offensive line. I think their defensive line is good. And you can, you know, they've only got a couple sacks this year, but the context of that is they faced an extremely mobile quarterback and Byron Brown in the first one who was able to get away and escape when they did get pressure. And sometimes he escaped to where Florida kind of wanted him to go, making bad throws. And then they faced Nussmeier last week, who his 1 greatest trait for me so far has always been his villa be the ability to avoid sacks in the pocket and get out. So there's context needed there. I. I think the pass rush is decent. I think the offensive line is good. I think the defensive line is good. And I think defensively they've, like, they only lost by 10 last week. They had five freaking turnovers, but the defense kept them in the game. And here's a fun little fact. It's related to that. Florida has turnover margin of negative 3 on the season, which ranks 113th. But their points off turnover margin is plus 4 anyway, because the defense just gets the ball back. They don't give up the points after offense loses the ball. So I think this game is essentially going to come down to two things. It's Carson Beck versus DJ Lagway. Can DJ Lagway finally start living up to the potential, or is he just going to be the next, like, really talented guy who could be a great quarterback but never figures it out? I don't think that's decided this week. But I think you definitely want to see a better performance than what you saw last week. And on the other side of that, and I think one of the problems leg ways dealt with Florida's pass catchers versus Miami's. I know Miami's are good. I'm yet to really see it from Florida's. I think that they need to have a, you know, we need to see somebody in that unit step forward to be a guy that DJ Lagway can rely on and turn to when things aren't going well. So I, I don't think this will be a blowout. I think Florida's defense is way too good to allow Miami to blow the doors off of them in this game. But I also think Florida is at serious risk if the offense is terrible again, because we can talk about the five turnovers last week, but we can't forget they didn't score points against South Florida either. Like the offense has just been bad. If the offense doesn't show any signs of life, how long before the defense just says f this quick factor? Yeah, like what the hell are we even doing out here? So it's a huge game, I think for Florida and I know what you're saying. They're one and two. Of course it's a huge game. But I just think as far as the rest of the season plays out, like they could lose this game. But if they play well and the offense looks good, the team could stay bought in. And that's the one thing we saw last year, even when Napier was like on the verge of being fired, the team never quit on him.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Tom Fornelli]

So you, you can hope that maintains throughout the season. But also, I can't believe we are this far into this big game breakdown and we haven't mentioned the escape room bow.

[Danny Cannell]

That's great. We gotta make a graphic for that.

[Bud Elliott]

Oh my God.

[Chip Patterson]

That's clue number one. Properly execute a fourth down scenario at the plus 45.

[Bud Elliott]

Clue number two, if, if you look at their turnover EPA like they're, they're not that far like down. Right. But if you take off what happened in the Long island game and you look at just the FBS games, it's. It's definitely pretty rough.

[Tom Fornelli]

Take care of the damn ball.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, bud.

[Chip Patterson]

To your point earlier, one sack against Long island, one sack against South Florida, two sacks on the season has you dead last among SEC teams. I know sacks. I know, I know that. I know that the count sacks are accounting stat and don't always represent pressures but man, bring it. Bringing a quarterback down, when you've got a pretty strong defensive front, you'd like to see a little bit more there.

[Bud Elliott]

You know, in, in hindsight. And granted Everybody's got got 2020 hindsight. Right. Like, letting Pyburn go to LSU may have been a mistake because Tyreek Sapp has not really been an impact player for them this year, especially on the pass rush game. And obviously, like, you know, they have McCray that the five star who they paid a ton for out of high school, which I thought was a great investment. He's just been hurt.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

So like they kind of needed him as a second year guy to step up. That's kind of a theme across college football. Like you can't afford to keep everybody in most situations, like, who did you let walk and how's it working out for you? And we talked about USC at running back. They took, they're like, all right, cool. Joiner, go to Texas Tech. We won't miss you. We love this junior college kid. So far that's working out great for usc. I mean, obviously we hope Joyner gets healthy for Texas Tech and comes back strong. But like, regardless of injury, the replacement's been good value for Florida. The Pyburn replacement, especially with the McCrae injury, has not worked out.

[Chip Patterson]

Yep. Elsewhere across all of week four, we got Arizona State at Baylor. We've got the iron skillet, SMU at tcu. Ole Miss welcomes in two lane. As we were talking about Trinidad Chambliss earlier. Lots more too. Tom, grab a matchup, Grab a X factor, a matchup point. What do you got your eyes on as we're breaking down these games for Week 4?

[Tom Fornelli]

Arizona State, Baylor, Jordan. Tyson's really good. We all agree, right?

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah. Maybe Sam Levitt should try throwing to somebody else because the entire passing game for Arizona State is, I'm just going to throw the ball to Jordan Tyson. He's very good. He catches most of them. He gets a lot of yards. But it's pretty simple for defenses to defend you when they know you're only going to one guy in the passing game. So you got to figure out somebody needs to step forwards, you need to move the ball around, you need to find other ways to get other guys to ball or else you're going to become very easy to defend and then maybe you just lean on the run. Because Baylor to this point has I, I don't think they've been terrible against the past. Now, we talked about it earlier. Some of that was strategy against Auburn, they were taking it away and giving up the run. But I also don't think they've been good against the run even in just basic kind of run stopping situations. So if I'm Arizona State, I got Relik Brown, I've got, you know, a couple backs. I, I wish I still had Cams catapult in this matchup, but I'm probably leaning on the run game here. I think that is your best bet to win because it also keep, you know, Sawyer Robertson and that offense off the field.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, go ahead, go ahead.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh yeah, I'm just glad you mentioned Relik Brown. He was somebody that was not on my radar coming into the season. We talked about the transfer, Kanye Udo coming in and picking up for Cam Scatterboo. Relique Brown is, you know, one of those, remember some dudes from national signing day, blue chip prospect, goes to usc. He's moved around between running back and wide receiver, doesn't play a lot as a sophomore, transfers to Arizona State and now has really come into his own going over 100 yards in each of the last two games. And he's got one of these looks of these fourth or fifth year journeymen where I'm watching his post game press conference and he's mature. You know, he's like, he's been through it. He did not have his college dreams realized as a 19 year old like he thought was going to happen when he was a blue chip signing up to be a skill player at usc. But man, he has waited his turn. He is getting his opportunities. I've, I've enjoyed that as a little a smaller story for, for, for you for Arizona State within this offensive room. Relik Brown kind of finding his own here in his fourth or fifth year of action.

[Bud Elliott]

Run the ball more.

[Chip Patterson]

You would like Relique to run the ball more.

[Bud Elliott]

I would like them to just hand the football off more often. I, I don't know like are there, are they like this increase in passing rate because they don't have Scatterbo or because they don't trust the offensive line? Like I know the O line struggle in week one and they were kind of game scripted into passing the ball a ton last week because they got down so early against Mississippi State. But I, I would like to see them a little bit more running the football.

[Danny Cannell]

They've got to be just more diverse than Sam Levitt and Jordan Tyson. That's way too much of their offense is too reliant on them. I talked to a coach who was on the staff at Arizona State last year. And I was asking him, oh, what about. You guys got to be fired up about Kanye Udo. And he was like, whoa. He's like, I don't know if he's gonna play. He's like, we really liked relief Brown. So they were like, he was big on him, saying, don't be surprised if. If Kanye Udo isn't the lead back like everybody assumes.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. And it's gotten a little. He's gotten some run. But Brown. Brown seems to be. It's like, Brown. I think Brown and Levitt are the team's two leading rushers statistically. But, yeah, Udo's gotten in there just a little bit. What about the Baylor side of that? Before we move on, what do we want to see from the Bears? They're home favorites. Yeah. And any defense can.

[Bud Elliott]

Can they run a football? I mean, like, Sawyer so far has been carrying these guys, throwing the ball a million times. Like, can they. Do they want to achieve offensive balance? Can they.

[Tom Fornelli]

Can.

[Bud Elliott]

Can they actually. Can you live with Sawyer dropping back 50 times a game? I don't know. That's how you really want to live.

[Chip Patterson]

Danny, what other. What other matchups stand out to you.

[Danny Cannell]

From this game or from the weekend?

[Chip Patterson]

Either one.

[Danny Cannell]

I'll go Tulane, Ole Miss. I mean, quietly. John Sumrall has just been winning. You know, he just beat Duke.

[Chip Patterson]

The.

[Danny Cannell]

Beat Darian Mensah in that return game. I mentioned Trinidad Chambliss. I'm very curious to see if he picks up where he left off for Ole Miss. Lighten up, Arkansas. It's a tricky spot for Ole Miss, and I know this is one of those games where John Sumrall gets his guys up. I think they're one of the more physical group of five programs out there. That comes as direct correlation. When you take on the personality of your coach, I think that game's gonna be pretty interesting.

[Bud Elliott]

I would agree with that for sure.

[Danny Cannell]

A lot better.

[Bud Elliott]

Is Simmons back? Because I gotta say, man, Tulane's getting bet this morning. Like, Simmons is not back.

[Danny Cannell]

What? Is that smart?

[Chip Patterson]

See, I don't know. I was listening to my investment advice, saying that Trinidad Chamberlain might be, like, the best path to be able to win 10 games and make the college football playoffs.

[Tom Fornelli]

Honestly, I don't. I don't care who's at quarterback in this game. Well, Miss needs to run the damn ball.

[Danny Cannell]

Yeah.

[Tom Fornelli]

Because I. I think you can run a lot on two lane with your personnel. I think you'd be able to find a decent amount of success.

[Bud Elliott]

I just don't think that O line is like, I don't think they're anything special this year.

[Chip Patterson]

Offensive line?

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, I think Ole Miss offensive line is.

[Chip Patterson]

Is rough.

[Danny Cannell]

I mean, I'm seeing reports from yesterday that says Austin Simmons is back, ready to return. Still buying my Trinidad Chambliss. Still hanging on to that one.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. Tulane got duke behind the eight ball, jumped out 24 to 3, and then just kind of got to defend it the rest of the way.

[Bud Elliott]

Where does Ole Miss rank in terms of, like, most untrustworthy teams when it comes to believe injury reports?

[Chip Patterson]

Utah.

[Tom Fornelli]

Unless. Unless Utah's quarterback is dead. It's Ole Miss number one.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

What. What other. What other games have yalls attention? Yeah, how are you looking at Iron Skillet?

[Bud Elliott]

So can SMU cover anybody? Are these veteran DBs any good? If not like, I like some of the young guys they signed. So it may be time for youth movement in the secondary like this. It's probably about the last time that we're. We're gonna need to see these veterans for SMU get torched if that happens. At that point, it's like, all right, what. What's the real sense of not throwing the young guys out there because they're. So far they have been like hot trash in the secondary.

[Chip Patterson]

Anything. Anything under 70 is green light. Go. Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Because TCU can. I. I think TCU can block them pretty well. Lastly said, Jennings is healthy. He did get banged up late there against Missouri State.

[Tom Fornelli]

TC's only played two games. They looked incredible against North Carolina, but we also know they were extremely fired up for that game. You would assume they're going to be extremely fired up for this game. And I know, like, if you look at last week's score against Abilene Christian, don't let it fool you, it was 42 to nothing at halftime and or 28 to nothing at halftime. And TCU just kind of, you know, all of Abilene Christian's points came late in the game in garbage time. So I wouldn't worry too much about that. I just, I think TCU looked very good in the one game I was able to watch it. And I don't think SMU has looked that good at the times I've watched it. So I feel like this is TCU's game to lose.

[Chip Patterson]

I mean, back to Danny's buy the throws that Hoover made against North Carolina. I mean, I, we. We called out a couple of those North Carolina defensive backs, but some of, some of the throws and that he was able to put right on the money were extremely impressive. So if SMU's got defensive back issues, it will be exposed by this quarterback in this passing attack.

[Tom Fornelli]

He does still need to learn when to just get rid of the ball and get. And I don't mean like, you know, throw on time. I just mean get rid of the ball. Don't try to complete every single pass. It's not always there.

[Bud Elliott]

Yep, Arkansas, Memphis is pretty interesting.

[Chip Patterson]

Very interesting.

[Bud Elliott]

Like, I don't really know why Arkansas is going to stop Memphis. They. They couldn't stop Trinidad and I don't think Arkansas is like an SEC level defense. So we'll see on that.

[Danny Cannell]

Do you think South Carolina gets off the mat? No, I don't either.

[Chip Patterson]

But our new friends, the Missouri Tigers. Boy, I tell you, that's right.

[Danny Cannell]

We love the Missouri Tigers.

[Chip Patterson]

Missouri's legit dominate on three. One, two, three. Hey, I tell you what, I hear Eli talking about dominating. That is a team that dominates on Saturdays.

[Tom Fornelli]

Oh, man.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, I don't, I don't see them getting even. Like I. Lenores plays. Lenores doesn't play. I still think Missouri, based on how good Missouri has looked, is a proper favorite in that game.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, they're favored by 11 and a half.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

I mean that, that's, that's assuming Lenores doesn't play, right? That is priced that way, yes.

[Bud Elliott]

And what's your, what's your Lenores to Doty adjustment? Three.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, not more, but a whole three.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, I mean like so a healthy three. Let's pressure test this. If Lenores is in, you would lay more than a touchdown with Missouri in.

[Chip Patterson]

Columbia up to 10?

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, I think I would lay seven. Seven and a half.

[Tom Fornelli]

I'd go up to 10.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, I wouldn't like 10, but yeah, okay, but you would lay more than a touchdown.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, that's not what I've seen so far.

[Bud Elliott]

I, I think I would as well, especially because Lenoris is their run game. So it's. I hate it for Beamer and those guys. I think he's, you know, nice guy. They're in real danger of missing a bowl.

[Chip Patterson]

I know.

[Bud Elliott]

You know, that's it.

[Chip Patterson]

It'd be like that. I mean, that's the.

[Bud Elliott]

It does be like that.

[Chip Patterson]

It'd be like that sometimes.

[Tom Fornelli]

It do be like that sometimes.

[Bud Elliott]

What about like Wyoming, Colorado? Wyoming defensively was pretty game last week. Offensively, they can't score on anybody. So if Colorado gets to like 17, they should be safe.

[Chip Patterson]

What's the motivation against Kent State?

[Bud Elliott]

Gus typically like, loves to, loves to run it up on these bad teams. If you watch this, go back to 20, 23, UCF, Kent State. They played about a similar quality Kent State team. And I, I think they scored 60 and covered with like four or five turnovers. Like he was pedal down the entire time. Now, will Mike Norvell let him do that with the starters in? I don't. That's kind of where it's like, all right, head coach, first coordinator, is he going to let him keep pedal down? But I bet you he'll let him keep pedal down with the backups.

[Tom Fornelli]

I was gonna say, if you put the backups in, can Kent State still stop those?

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, like, like, you know, Sperry and Glenn can probably score some on Kent State. Like Texas Tech last week clearly called the dogs off.

[Chip Patterson]

Brocktober comes early.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Let's go.

[Bud Elliott]

All right. They like the Sperry kid.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay.

[Bud Elliott]

He's more of a runner.

[Chip Patterson]

Love to see. I mean that. Hey, and Gus loves to see it. Let's go.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

All right. Thursday, 11:00am Eastern Time. It is everyone's favorite time of the week. We will gather back here [e-mail] covered three to run through our week four locks and you get in, you drive up the likes, we give you the locks. The locks move the lines. Again, you get up the likes, we give you the locks. The locks move the lines. It pays to watch live. Okay, so be sure you're here. Then after Thursday, we'll be back Saturday night, 11:30pm Eastern time to recap everything that we saw, everything we were right about, everything we were wrong about from week four. And you can follow him on Twitter at Tom Frenell. You can follow him at Danny Canel. You can follow him at Bud Elliot. 3. Follow me at chip underscore Patterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much.

[Tom Fornelli]

Thank you.

[Bud Elliott]

See y'.

[Tom Fornelli]

All.

[Chip Patterson]

See ya.

[Tom Fornelli]

Popsicles, sprinklers, a cool breeze. Talk about refreshing. You know what else is refreshing this summer? A brand new phone with Verizon.

[Chip Patterson]

Yep.

[Tom Fornelli]

Get a new phone on any plan with select phone. Trade in in my plan and lock down a low price for three years on any plan with MyPlan. This is a deal for everyone whether you're a new or existing customer. Swing by Verizon today for our best phone deals. 3 year price guarantee applies to then current base monthly rate only. Additional terms and conditions apply for all offers.