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Cover 3 College Football
Big Game Breakdown: Keys To Victory For Oklahoma-Ole Miss, Texas A&M-LSU, Vanderbilt-Missouri & More
01:11:17
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A
This episode of the COVID 3 podcast is presented by Cash App. For a limited time only, new Cash App users can use our show's code when they sign up for a reward. Just download Cash App, use our code cover 3 and send $5 to a friend. Within 14 days, you'll get $10 right in your account. Terms apply. That's money. That's Cash App.
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Welcome Back to the COVID 3 podcast. With your host Chip Patter, Tom Fernelli.
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Danny Cannell and Bud Elliott. It's your call for the best college.
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Football coverage from national signing day to the national championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the COVID 3 podcast.
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And welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fenelli, that's Bud Elliott, that's Danny Cannell. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you live@YouTube.com cover3 and everywhere you get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe smash that like and come and join us in the chat aka the COVID 3 tailgate where Joey jumped in before the show started and pointed out this weekend is huge for bubble playoff teams. Maybe no play in games Joey says, but potentially quite a few play out matchups. Could not agree with you or Joey. It is a Wednesday. We are going to of course check in with the market with day training Danny. But first let's talk about some of those play out play off games. So Wednesday, you know we got break it down. It is big game breakdown. Danny. How long have we been hearing little murmurs about sign? I mean before Connor Stallions was even out here. The Brent Venables.
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D
This goes way back.
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A
Yeah, yeah. The Brent Venables sign awareness back to Clemson. Yes. This, this has been going on for a long time. Lane Kiffin just coming and laying it out before we start to get into the the X's and O's on the on the field. What do you make about this Lane Kiffin offensive guru against Brent Venables defensive ma mind all the trickeration game plan and play calling past the chalk. How do you, how do you like this this matchup here with Ole Miss in Oklahoma.
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D
I love it. I think it's a great chess match that's going to take place. I love that lane as only Lane can do. Kind of laid it out there, you know, kind of you say something you're like well I wasn't really saying, you know like you kind of have it but you don't thought it was great. I did see an account went and tried to find the play that they thought they were Talking about because there was a safety that shot away, right. That play could be really good recognition too, because it's not that uncommon. There was like a Mike Sam blitz. It is your hot read as the quarterback to throw one of those slants. So it's not that crazy to think that it could be really good recognition as well. Just to throw that in there doesn't mean that they had the signals.
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A
Oklahoma's got great safety too. Like, high iq.
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C
Exactly.
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D
There's some of the best that are out there. And Brett Venable is a great coach, so it could be that too. I do think Lane will use other signals, but this is why the helmet communications are in place. Like, why use any signals at all if you're worried about them, just use the helmet comms. I get lines, checks the line of scrimmage, stuff like that. But I think this is a great matchup. I, I think, I think you'll see Ole Miss score some points against Oklahoma. I'm more worried about the other side of the matchup. Like, from Ole Miss's perspective, their defense has been struggling. Oklahoma's offense has not been much to speak of. They've been highly inconsistent. Matier has been a little bit erratic with the football. I think they might be able to just run all over Ole Miss's defense. That to me, is that because I.
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A
Think Oklahoma run game, though run right.
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D
So, but it's, oh, but if you need an opportunity to get right, I think it's against Ole Miss's defense.
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B
I mean, I think Ole Miss's defense is a hell of a lot better than Oklahoma's offense. Maybe that, that's an exaggeration. Maybe it's more.
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A
Stick with the bud, keep going.
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B
Maybe it's just meaningfully better. But like, I, I, I trust Ole Miss's defense more than I trust this Oklahoma offense overall. Like, I, I mean, who scares you on this OU offense? Matier, when he plays YOLO ball, can make some awesome, awesome things happen. But he, like, he struggles to play on schedule just like he did last year at Washington State. He's really kind of the same player. You know, same offense, same player. Like, he's not, he's not better than he was last year, and the competition is better. So, man, if you're, if you're, Ole Miss, you're like, if we can score 24, we feel great about winning this ball game, right? Yeah, I would think. Or, well, maybe 34. 20. No, 24.
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D
Oh, no.
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B
Offense is, is bad, but like, maybe 27, you feel great. Maybe 24. You just feel good. I. I'm.
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C
I don't know. Like, I. I went into this matchup thinking, like, you saw the spread, and I'm just like, wow, that's a lot of points to give Dull Miss. But honestly, the. The further I. I've dug into it, the more I kind of understand it. Because, I mean, I. I don't think Oklahoma's offense is any good. I. I do think, like, I. I made the joke the other day about how Oklahoma, lsu, and Texas are all the same team. I think it was somewhat unfair to Oklahoma just because I do think with John Mattier, at least they have a guy who can make something happen out of nothing, whereas I feel like LSU and Texas right now don't. And OU has definitely struggled to run the ball, but this is an Ole Miss defense that is absolutely atrocious against the run. They rank 127th in EPA per rush allowed, so that's not good. So if there is a moment for OU to have any kind of success on the ground, it would be in this game. That doesn't mean I think they're going to have it, but mostly it's just defensively. I think this team is so good that I don't really have a ton of faith in the Ole Miss offense. Like, I know Lane's gonna be able to scheme some stuff up, but, like, when I was watching Ole Miss versus Georgia last week, the one thing that kind of just thought I had that kind of struck me was I can't see a difference in Trinidad Chambliss and Gunner Stockton. To me, they're the same exact player, but they're discussed in very different ways, because I think Chambliss came out of nowhere. He wasn't the starter to begin the season, whereas Stockton, we knew coming in, and we were kind of had low expectations for him. And I think Stockton has exceeded his expectations, and Chambliss is getting a ton of credit for exceeding the expectations that Stockton's not. Anyway, I'm getting off point here. I just don't. I need to see Trinidad Chambliss against this defense. And this is a very, very, very, very good Oklahoma defense. Like, they are first in defensive success rate. They are second in points a lot per drive, trailing only Ohio State, which is, you know, an incredible, elite defense. They lead the nation in pressure rate. They lead the nation in sack rate. They're going to be at home. This is going to be Trinidad Chambliss on the road, going up against this defense, and he has shown to me like when he gets under pressure, he makes mistakes. And I think that we are very likely to see some of those mistakes. So even if Oklahoma's offense isn't great, I think they might be handed a short field or two in this one and they probably will be able to take advantage of it. Because the one thing about this Sooner's defense is or offense, they really struggle to move the ball. But when they do and they get into the scoring area, they finish at a very high rate. Like in points per red zone possession, they're scoring 5.35. That's the fourth best in the country. So they finish drives well once they get into that scoring area. And I think that they might get a few of those spots. Like, I do not think this is going to be high scoring. And I think if you're Ole Miss, you want it to be high scoring. That's just the kind of way. So if this is going to be like a styles make fights kind of situation, I think Oklahoma has a better chance to dictate the style of this fight, which will go against what we've seen from Ole Miss. Because when Ole Miss is at its best, that's not the style it plays.
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B
Yeah, I, I don't disagree with that. I. This is very similar to me from what we saw with lsu. Ole Miss, right. I mean you have a pretty, like both of them, I'd say are bottom half of the Power 5 in terms of offense, but meaning Oklahoma and LSU, you both have, at least in my numbers, like both are top five defenses in the country, like really good defenses. I think LSU was a little more banged up going into that game. Nussmeier didn't look right. And remember we had the left tackle go down in warm ups there for lsu, which might have put them kind of off kilter. The big difference is how do you handle the road. Right. And this is the second straight road trip into a hostile environment for Ole Miss. Oklahoma coming off a fairly easy win at South Carolina, like if you flipped home and away for Ole Miss, lsu, are we still picking Ole Miss? Probably not, but maybe so with the injuries that that LSU had in that game and it, it's like, hey, can, can Matier do enough? Because I, I don't think Ole Miss is going to score like mid-30s. I don't think it's any kind of shootout, you know, it can Matier like avoid doing the dumb stuff? And do we think Ole Miss's run defense is like, it's not good, but are we sure it's that bad or Is it simply, like, permissive? Are they just really focused on denying the explosive play? So they're going to give you some of the run stuff?
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C
There's certainly a level of permissiveness to it. Yes.
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B
Okay.
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A
I. I think somebody. Somebody to tell you it earlier said our bend but don't break looked like a popsicle stick against Georgia. So, you know, like, yeah, the. The ideal Ole Miss defense has been. But don't break. But if you can't get those red zone stops, it's not going to be, you know, worth a whole lot here, obviously. So Austin Simmons was the quarterback for the Kentucky game. Right. And we've got an extremely small sample size. This is just the third road game of the season for Ole Miss, but we do see our. Our completion percentage drop from 65.4% at home to 53.3% on the road. Rushing numbers go down, and pass defense also impacted negatively. And pass defense is the one that stands out to me because we're including Kentucky in that sample set. So, you know, the small sample size, but also Kentucky sample size, it's. It is going to be. I think the environment is a monumental challenge. Second straight road game. Get this team refocused. You were just right there in. In the game against Georgia. You end up coming up short in Athens. And, man, one thing about Oklahoma and its move to the SEC is it has given us a lot more big games in Norman. You know, like those. Not. Not to go all Florida State on this. You know, talking about, like, your opponents and selling tickets and home environments, but, like, you're getting a top 15 team in town in late October. That didn't always happen in the. In the old days. And so I'm excited to see that. See that up and going for the Sooners.
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D
Yes. I know we have Bud here, so we don't have to do it in his voice, but who's the best offense or quarterback that Oklahoma has faced?
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A
Bryce Underwood.
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B
Bryce Underwood, the best quarterback in his.
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D
First big roadster, first road start. I think it's been a good test.
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B
But do we think. Do you think Chambers is better than Bryce Underwood?
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C
No.
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D
As a college quarterback right now, Yes.
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C
I don't.
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B
Interesting. Okay.
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D
I do.
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C
I. I think Trinidad Shambles is a jag.
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B
Plus, I think that Lane Kiffin's a way better coach than Sherel Moore in that offensive staff in Michigan.
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A
I. I think there's going to be a lot in this game. My expectation is lower scoring, and that means that John Matiere, Trinidad Chambliss hero ball time and that's going to lead to mistakes potentially that's going to lead to incredible plays. That Oklahoma pass rush is ferocious. Does Chambliss have the awareness and the escapability to know where to go with the football or when to take off and run? Because Chambliss can't. I mean either one of these quarterbacks can be the difference maker in terms of being able to make something happen when you're being overwhelmed because Oklahoma running the football is a negative in my eyes. Oklahoma's offensive line in the against SEC opponents is probably a negative. And so what can material we know can do some stuff off schedule. Chambliss as well I think does a good job of being able to take.
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D
Off and run something.
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B
I I ran out of time this morning when I was doing research on this game, but I wanted to look into so I'll throw it out here to you guys in the chat. How has Venables done against the Veer and Shoot Brile stuff? Because like that's still in Kiffin's repertoire, right? Like I know they faced Tennessee last year. Tennessee hit some explosive plays and beat them even when Tennessee's offense was not very good. Oklahoma blitz is a lot like even though OU has a real OU to me has the best D line probably in the country, but certainly in the discussion. And I think it's the best that Ole Miss will have faced. I mean it like Georgia would crawl over broken glass to have the guys that OU has this year. LSU is pretty good. And when I look at this, I mean how much blitzing is Oklahoma going to do to Ole Miss? And in anticipation of such do we think Ole Miss spreads the field wider like kind of like they used to do when Lane was running a little bit more. That stuff just so you have to kind of declare from depth and width where you're coming from that that was kind of one of the advantages of of spreading the field that much. It makes it a little bit harder to blitz. So I'm curious to see, you know, how much do they do that Chambliss though does not have some kind of crazy army. So if you're OU and you want to and you say okay, you can spread the field like that, but we're going to make sure that like we're going to really dare you to make some of those throws that the receiver splits suggest you're willing to make.
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C
Look a quick look up of the stats here. I would not blitz Trinidad Chambliss. He, he had done really well when blitzed it's when he's not blitzed that he comes back down to earth.
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B
But Lane was in his bag anticipating those LSU blitzes for sure. Georgia a lot of guys second half.
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C
It'S only 58 drop backs compared to 124 when not. But it's just like his just reading off the basic stats. His passer efficiency is 202.9 when blitzed. It's 135.8 when not. His touchdown rate is 10.2% when blitzed it's 2.6 when not with. Of course touchdown rate does rise against blitzes because you typically get a lot of man on man.
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B
To answer the Google question is this a play out game? Is this an elimination game for the loser?
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A
No, the loser faces a win out proposition.
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C
Yeah. Like you're both in trouble if you lose this game.
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A
More in more trouble for Oklahoma because I think there's more opponents that you are going to have a tougher time with. But for sure Ole Miss just lost its first game and I think either one of These teams at 10 and 2 is a has a good shot at making the College Football Playoff.
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D
Who has Ole Miss, who has Ole Miss beaten? If they don't have the non con. They don't have a non con schedule. Who is their most impressive win? Lsu. Who that rank is a total fraud.
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C
It doesn't matter if you're a 10 and 2 sec team, you're gonna get.
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D
In I think probably right. But it shouldn't be that way.
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B
This might matter. Yeah, like I, I. Okay, it might not, but it probably should. There's a real chance that Ole Miss will not have a win. LSU's probably gonna make a. They're not gonna miss a bowl, buddy.
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A
Ole Miss, I mean excuse me. LSU might be Texas A M. We're gonna get that game next. But like this.
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B
Yeah, but more, but more likely, more likely we're talking about Brian Kelly on like the scorching is of scorch seats when they lose to A M and Bama. Both of them have new coaches who were hired after you know Brian Kelly was hired like right. You know and that'd be LSU on what a four game losing streak or do they have a win mixed in between Ole Miss and Ole Miss would.
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D
Be like Texas last year or.
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A
No, they'd be like Tennessee. Tennessee was 10 and 2 with like not a huge. I mean they beat Alabama but did.
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D
Not have a ranked win at the end of the season.
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C
No.
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D
Yeah, but they only had one loss and they lost in the SEC Championship. Game.
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C
Right.
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B
But if Ole Miss. If Ole Miss loses, though, it makes Florida's hiring process a lot easier because then they have to play a first round game, which they probably won't be favored in.
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D
That for Oklahoma if they lose. I know we say they're still, but like some of these, I think you have to look at from the perspective of if you can't win this game, you're not going to be able to win out. Like, that's the way I look at it for Oklahoma.
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A
I like that. That's a competitive. I'm all about competitiveness. Let's go.
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C
You know, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Oklahoma won't. We know.
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D
Way to go on the limb.
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C
Taking a stand here.
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A
Which. That's. That's brave of you.
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B
You know, who. Who is more likely to create explosives in this game? Because I don't think either team is going to do a great job of sustaining drives.
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C
Ole Miss will do a better job scheming them up. John Mater will do a better job just making them happen.
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A
Yeah.
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B
Yeah, I like that.
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A
All right, let's keep it going then. On to Tiger Stadium at night. You know, we thought we. We thought we had seen it all, you know, like Tiger Stadium at night. This is something that you absolutely have to bet on every single time. Except LSU finds it himself as an underdog to Texas A and M. Yep, you kind of set the table right there. Frustrations mounting as LSU enters this game off the loss to Vanderbilt. Texas A M still with a zero in the loss column. Bud, do you think it comes crashing down here? Or does the team. Or, and I'll say this, does the team that has been better win this game? Always happen, especially in the sec, especially in these circumstances. But Texas A and M has been the better football team this season. No guarantee they're able to get through the weekend still undefeated, though.
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B
This is really a great matchup on. On one side of the ball. I mean, this is the best offensive line LSU has faced by a lot, I think.
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C
Let's see, LSU has faced Clemson. Yeah. Better than that. Lord, is good. But I would say A M's is better.
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B
I would agree.
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C
Yeah. This is the best one they faced.
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B
And this is the best defense A M's faced.
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C
Yeah. Okay. I mean, Notre Dame's the only Notre Dame and Florida are the only release.
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A
Early Notre Dame, too, was still in.
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C
Yeah, Early Notre Dame was not very good.
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B
I. Notre Dame hasn't really played anybody's sense to make us think like, I.
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A
Mean, usc, I Think structurally they figured things out a little bit better. That's fair. Beginning of the season, they're definitely better.
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C
So if it wasn't raining, does Notre Dame's defense look very good last week?
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A
Yes.
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C
Just a question. Throwing it out. No need.
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A
I don't know, man, that if it wasn't raining, Notre Dame might have won by more.
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C
It's very true.
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B
Garrett brings up that the Auburn defense is pretty good. I. I would agree, but I do think that LSU is better. And also playing at LSU is different than playing it in college station hosting Auburn, to me, it's can LSU confuse the A and M offense? Can A and M's offense just kind of, you know, nut up and run the ball into the teeth? The LSU defense, I think there's some chance they can push them around, but also, like, maybe not. LSU has real players on defense. They're really good. To me, Nussmeier looked a lot better last week. Maybe he's starting to get healthy finally. I don't like that LSU lost one of their starting tackles because we know how they felt about that group entering the year. And I think those feelings have been very justified by the poor play of the offensive line this season. So how much pressure can Cassius Howell get on Garrett Nussmeier? I mean, he hasn't looked all that mobile this year. I mean, really never has. But with the injury, certainly a little bit more. Those are kind of my main questions in this ball game.
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D
I mean, we just saw LSU struggle with Vanderbilt's run game. I mean, does playing at home matter that much for, you know, I get in the past game, it would be a tremendous advantage. Run game. It could be some. But I have my concerns about LSU's defense. I thought they would be able to take away Vanderbilt's run game. They did not. I think they rushed for like 230 and again, mobile quarterback comes into play. That's the same thing you're going to see with A M. That, to me, is something that's concerning.
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B
I think it's fair.
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C
I'm so sick and tired of talking about lsu.
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A
You're the one who put him on.
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D
Hey, it was you first transition to Texas.
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B
We're gonna talk about a lot more over the next couple weeks, too.
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C
I know. It's just. It's better or worse. It's the same thing. It's like Texas. It's the same thing every week. Like, their offensive line is atrocious. They can't do anything they want to do. And like Joe Sloan's taking heat from LSU fans as offensive coordinator, Sark is taking heat from Texas fans as being the play caller. And I, I do think there's certainly something to the idea that maybe Sark should give up play calling just because he's got other stuff to worry about. But I don't care who the offensive coordinator is with these offensive lines, you can't do anything like your. Your play is shot before it starts. And I think the one thing, like, the most disappointing thing, honestly, to me, LSU is far. Like, the offensive line has stunk, and I haven't seen Garrett Nussmeier do anything to kind of alleviate it. Whereas you see Mattier alleviate his offensive lines problems, you see Arch show flashes of being able to do so. Nuss just looks completely overwhelmed all the time. Like, he looks like every time he's taking a snap, he's like, here we go again. And it's just, he's not showing any kind of playmaking ability. That's been the most disappointing thing for me with this offense. But so you go in here and you know Texas A and M's defense, I, I mentioned it last week, you know, that they really improved, or was it just the opponent? And Arkansas puts up 42. Well, I don't think that's going to be a problem this week because I don't think LSU is capable of putting up 42 on anybody. So I know going on the road here is difficult. I know it's a tough place to play, but I just genuinely think A and M is the much better team in this matchup. So unless that crowd really, really works its magic, or unless Marcel Reed just gets overcome by some sort of demon that causes him to throw the ball to the other team 14 times. I have no idea how LSU scores enough points in this game to win.
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A
That's called the Lagway, right? The Lagway Demon.
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C
Yeah.
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A
You know, comes in and just sees purple and gold and it's like, yeah, let's feed them the ball right now.
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D
Reed back demon, which we saw last week. I mean, that's the recipe for the. I mean, that's when your quarterback has an off night the way that has. And Marcel Reed hasn't had that tendency yet this year. But that would be, that would be the way I would see for LSU to have a, you know, potential win and upset.
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A
Yeah, last year, Blake Baker comes in year one, you think everything's going good. Texas A and M pulls Marcel Reed off to enter this very game. Reed ran for approximately 985 yards in that game. You know, just absolutely cooking them in in a win for Texas A and M. And you point out last. You point out last week's game. It. I don't know if you caught Mike Elkos sort of explanation for what happened. Did you see? He was like. Like, doesn't matter where we play it, whether we play it at Jerry World, whether we play it here at Fayetteville. This is just every Texas A and M Arkansas game. So, no, there's a lot of games we put on an island. Mike Elko would like us to treat that Texas A and M Arkansas rivalry very much as an island game.
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B
What. What if Arkansas just spent all their money on offense and they have a good offensive line, better receivers than they did last year, an excellent play caller, maybe not a great program manager, and a pretty veteran, talented quarterback like, that's. Arkansas's offense is just legitimately good.
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A
Yeah.
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B
And a defense is merely, like, decent to good. Like, they lost a lot of important pieces off last year. The offense largely has to carry this team this year. I think, man, I. I don't totally ding them for what happened in Fayetteville.
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C
I just think.
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A
That'S a. That's an island game. And guess what?
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C
That's my point. That's my point, though. Like, this A M defense still struggles against good offenses. That's not a problem this week.
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A
We. We will. If. If.
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B
That's why I still had Bama, like, beating them in the playoff projection, because I think Bama would score 40.
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C
Right.
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A
If they win here, are you gonna pull out a permanent marker and write them in a bracket?
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C
Yeah, yeah, pretty much. Because after this, they've got. Well, they've got to go on the road for Mizzou, South Carolina, Sanford at Texas. So they've got two difficult road games left. But even if they lose both of them, as long as they don't lose to South Carolina or Samford, they're 10 and two with wins over, you know. Yeah.
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B
The two Sharpies right now who probably should be sharpies are Ohio State and Indiana.
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D
And if Texas A and M wins this one, I think they're Sharpie.
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B
I think so. I mean, they're like minus 700 in the betting markets right now.
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A
Whoa. Ohio State's gone, right? They've pulled.
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B
Yeah. Most of the books that I looked at have pulled Ohio State. Like, you can't bet yes on them anymore.
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C
Chip's looking to put down 10 bucks for a 23 cent return.
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A
That's called compound interest, baby. Let's go.
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B
That's right. Yeah. I mean, if they could you lose your final three? Like could you lose a South Carolina at home? It's. That's doubtful, I think, but it's possible. Like if you played awful in South Carolina, played one of their home run effort games, you could lose. I mean, that's not like a 20 point spread.
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C
Yeah, that game on the road though, I think.
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B
But I do. But I think A M at 9 and 3 is in because you have the road win over Notre Dame. So yes, I think that they should be sharpie if they win this ball game. Although the committee would have a weird. In what scenario are they losing those final three? That would not also give the committee excuse to Jordan Travis them.
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A
Okay.
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B
Right. It would probably have to be, hey, the quarterback's out. Right?
- [26:37]
A
I, I think, I think that also for Texas A and M fans, of which there are many who enjoy the COVID 3 podcast, I would also set your expectations higher, which is make the SEC championship game. It's something you've never done as an SEC member. That would be cool. I mean that, that would be an awesome experience for Mike Elko to lead this team out onto the field to try to go win an SEC title. So you still got that as another thing at the forefront that makes each one of these games incredibly important. Well, coming up on the other side, we keep our big game breakdowns rolling. Missouri on the road at Vanderbilt. They've got something in common. We'll tell you and more next.
- [27:20]
C
I have to tell you about this game changing product I use before a night out with drinks. It's called Pre Alcohol zbiotics. Pre Alcohol Probiotic drink is the world's first genetically engineered probiotic. It was invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. Here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's a buildup of this byproduct, not dehydration. That's to blame for rough days after drinking. Pre alcohol produces an enzyme to break this byproduct down. Just remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. Look, I won't lie. I was a bit on the fence about pre alcohol initially. But then while hanging out with the COVID three boys while we were in Tallahassee for our live show, I. I gave it a shot. And believe me, it's the real deal. Fall is here and that means it's time to enjoy cooler weather and some drinks out with friends. Whether you're enjoying a pint at a fall festival or a spooky cocktail at a Halloween party. Don't forget to drink pre alcohol before drinking. You'll be able to celebrate and still wake up feeling great the next day. Go to ZBiotics.com cover to learn more and get 15% off your first order when you use CUVVR at checkout. ZBiotics is backed with a 100% money back guarantee, so if you're unsatisfied for any reason, they'll refund your money, no questions asked. Remember to head to ZBiotics.com cover and use the code COVER at checkout for 15% off.
- [28:48]
B
This episode is brought to you by State Farm Listening to this podcast Smart move Being financially savvy Smart move. Another smart move having State Farm help you create a competitive price when you choose to bundle home and auto bundling.
- [29:04]
C
Just another way to save with a.
- [29:05]
B
Personal price plan like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer, availability, amount of discounts and savings and eligibility vary by state.
- [29:20]
A
Back here on the COVID 3 podcast, keeping it rolling with big game breakdowns. Missouri and Vanderbilt each have one loss on the season. That loss is to the Alabama Crimson Tide. Missouri, of course, is coming into this game after surviving a hell of an evening down on the plains. They end up escaping with an overtime win. Vanderbilt handing, as we mentioned earlier, just the the hammer to LSU being able to really take control of that game. Big win at home.
- [29:50]
C
Second.
- [29:51]
A
Second straight home game for Vanderbilt. Danny, is there any worry about a letdown here?
- [29:58]
D
I mean, come on Vanderbilt, we're talking about they're gonna be fired. There ain't no look over. There ain't no look ahead spot. I heard Barton Simmons say we still got work to do. Yep, I heard him say that right here on the post game Reaction show. I don't think so because I don't think you're in the luxury of that position where it's somewhere who's been in this position a long time like they are. I think those players, I think the leadership is strong with Diego Pavia, yes, there's always human nature that creeps in, but I think this team feels like they have an opportunity to do something special. So I don't think there's a letdown spot game days there. I mean, I don't think that's the case. I do think it's to be a really good game. I think they're gonna have their hands full with a good Opponent. But I don't think if they lost, I don't think it's. Oh, they must have taken Missouri lightly.
- [30:47]
B
Yeah. I can't see this being a letdown. I mean this is like these are two kind of evenly matched teams, right?
- [30:55]
A
Oh, look, it is super, super fun in terms of the way you're looking at the matchup, the two different quarterbacks, the way that they can make plays, especially with their legs, the way that both teams want to run the football. But it's not necessarily a ground and pound three yards and a cloud of dust run the football. It is a create explosive plays through the run game brand of football. You know, we've got a Missouri defensive line that is very, very intimidating. But Vanderbilt just did a good job of opening up holes and getting pushed against LSU's defensive line. I just it that it is not necessarily a letdown or a hangover, but it is a test. Absolutely it. Last year, Vanderbilt did not do a good job of handling success. It looks, there's a lot of different ways that we've talked about them being able to show maturity and be able to continue to stack success on success. You didn't go on the road, you won at home. You spent all week being at home. Preparations are, you know, this is, I, I think this is a good test, one that they can pass. But I, I just think that you have to acknowledge it's been a really good week around the program in Nashville.
- [32:03]
D
Agreed. But I don't think there is. I don't think they were as good last year as they are this year. I would agree.
- [32:08]
B
Yeah.
- [32:08]
D
You know, like, so I think some of that might not have been in success related. It might have been the roster wasn't as good.
- [32:15]
C
How concerned are you guys on a scale of 1 to 10 about the Mizzou offense?
- [32:20]
B
A little bit. We, we had some viewers, you know, in, in the Twitter dms. Hey, have you seen Hardy's numbers when he started playing better teams? Like were some of his broken tackle stuff, was he just a schedule merchant, you know and. No, like, I mean that's a real thing, right?
- [32:38]
A
Yeah, yeah.
- [32:39]
C
They're right there in front of you on the screen. Yeah.
- [32:41]
B
Okay. Perfect. Like, man, that is. That is. Well, Tom, I didn't mean to steal your point. If that was what you're going to say, then go.
- [32:45]
C
No, no, no, no, no. That's just Mikey doing a great job. Man. That is just.
- [32:52]
B
For us. Look at that.
- [32:55]
A
Yeah.
- [32:56]
B
Because I don't think that that Bo is like a plus level passer. You know, so if the run game's not going. They are not going to beat you. Just dropping back. They have got to hit you with the manufactured explosives off the play action stuff, which is very. That's a good way to run college offense and Eli and Moore do a great job of that. But like Vandy's a little bit harder to run on this year. Although, I mean, Bama did it, but Bama's got a pretty good old line and they also, you know, threw the ball on them. Okay. I trust Pavia a lot more than I trust Bo.
- [33:30]
D
Yeah.
- [33:30]
B
But if you've got to be able to threaten Missouri through the air, like, like, I think, yeah, like Hardy is.
- [33:39]
C
Part of it, but I just. And he's a big part of it the last two games because he just hasn't gotten going. But I do feel like as a whole this offense just is not playing nearly as well as it had been to start the season. Like take out the UMass game. But like South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn, as soon as they've gotten into conference play, which is natural, that's going to happen for everybody. But it's just. There's been a very steep drop off, I think, particularly I think the offensive line struggle. But they've been banged up there at times too. But I just, I, I don't know. Like, this is a Vanderbilt offense that ranks first in the country in points per drive. They are fifth in success rate. Like, this is a really good offense that they're going to be going up against and Missou's defense is very good. So I don't think I would, I, I'll predict Vandy's only the second or third best offense come next Sunday because they probably won't have a great day here. But I just. Mizzou the last, you know, they're 103rd in the nation in team whoopsie daisy rate. Like they've started to slow down. They're putting the ball in danger. I think that you're going on to a spot here where, you know, you can't really afford to make those kind of mistakes. And I just, I'm concerned that they're going to have, they're going to have problems here because they're also, again, it's on the road. They've only been on the road once before and they won the game, but it was against Auburn. So it's a second straight road trip. And then on the other side, I do think the most interesting thing here for me is Missouri is second in the nation in pressure rate as far as getting to the quarterback. But when you're going up against Diego Pavia, do you want to kind of change your approach? Like, do you, do you want to go after him and give him escape lanes or are you going to try to pin him in and force him to beat you in the passing game? I think that's one interesting part of this matchup that's going be worth keeping an eye on. And it's an interesting part that I think could really help Mizzou alleviate any offensive concerns.
- [35:31]
B
I think it's a great point. It's also like, how many true pass rush opportunities you're gonna get.
- [35:40]
A
Like, Vanderbilt does such a good job of staying on schedule and not creating the obvious third and long.
- [35:45]
B
Yeah, right.
- [35:46]
A
Yeah. Good job of that.
- [35:48]
B
To the, to the people in the chat saying that the, the Bama D and the Auburn D are way better than Vandy.
- [35:55]
C
I.
- [35:57]
B
I mean, kind of.
- [36:01]
C
I mean, I would agree they're better. Yeah.
- [36:03]
B
Like, I mean, they're, they're better, but it's not like Vandy's running out the Arkansas defense. They're. They're probably like, Vandy to me is still a top half defense in the power four. Auburn's pretty good.
- [36:17]
A
I think. I think the, the fundamental flaw of having a downfield passing attack that does not appear to be respected by your quality opponents is just something that when you're looking at a football game, it's going to be really tough to get over, but. And it will take extra effort by Beau Pribula, by Ahmad Hardy, by Missouri's defense to maybe try to force some turnovers or get some red zone stops. We talked about it on Saturday night. Diego Pavia, like, what's the difference between the Alabama game and the LSU game? Red zone turnovers. You know, like, that was a game against the Tide until it wasn't. And into the second half, if, if you're Vanderbilt, I mean, if you're, if you are Missouri, you better hope you can do that. Because if you can't force turnovers, Vanderbilt will control this game in the same way that they did against lsu.
- [37:09]
C
Can I ask the chat a question? Don't be.
- [37:12]
A
Come on.
- [37:12]
C
No, no, no.
- [37:14]
B
We have a good Missouri contingent, though.
- [37:15]
C
Yeah. Because like, they're saying that they are the Pavia stopper. Last year in your, like, impressive 30 to 27 win over Vanderbilt, Pavia had two touchdowns passing and he rushed for 84 yards. Like did. I don't feel like you completely stopped him.
- [37:33]
B
I'd agree with that.
- [37:34]
A
I mean, I mean, we Will have official locks tomorrow, but is anybody going to throw this one on there?
- [37:42]
B
Not aside. Maybe one of the totals here? Yeah, yeah, I, I think it could.
- [37:49]
A
Be point C. Yeah, I would agree with that.
- [37:51]
B
By the way, to the idea that I think these are two really evenly matched teams. FPI has them 15th and 16th, like literally right there.
- [38:02]
A
I mean, and the, the market's power ratings will agree with that as well. Vanderbilt's a 2 1/2 point favorite at home against Missouri.
- [38:10]
B
So, yeah, I don't, I don't feel great about either team winning this or losing this. I think these are both good football teams.
- [38:16]
A
So you've heard from me throughout this show about our friends from Google AI for some of these episodes here. In a little bit, we are going to actually use the audience and the Google AI interface to bring to you some of the biggest questions in college football. And recently, with a huge spike of 660% over the course of the last week, who are the best available college football coaches? My question for you is Clark Lee and Eli Drinkwitz. If I'm going to say best, since it's best available, I'm going to say you got to throw out Kirby Smart. Kirby Smart's not available. Right. Like, you know, take, take all those, mate. Ryan Day, not available. Are these two of the five best available college football coaches or maybe 10? Is 10 too easy?
- [39:12]
B
I mean, the word available is doing a lot of work there, right? Like, is Clark Lee available?
- [39:17]
A
It's a great question.
- [39:20]
C
I believe so.
- [39:23]
B
I don't, I think it's very hard to say no to a team like a, like a Florida or. I mean, Notre Dame's not open. That. That would be sort of the, like the natural, logical connection because he was the DC There for the Irish man. That's going to be. One of the existential questions is like, hey, man, clearly the roster that you have built with Barton is way better than it was. Right. You have, you have raised the level of player on this team beyond just quarterback. But also, I mean, quarterback is a big part of this. So how good do you think you can sustain when Diego leaves? Like, that's kind of the question that, that Clark, I think if you. I don't think he's gonna make a move. I, I think, I mean, yeah, that's a perfect setup for him.
- [40:13]
A
The Nashville native, Vanderbilt alum.
- [40:15]
B
Yeah, that city is growing like crazy. You don't think you can find a couple more, you know, new money millionaires to pitch in some more money for nil over the next couple years. Like, that's a cool thing to be a part of. Like, there's a big, like, hey, you know, be a part of Nashville vibe going on in that city right now. I mean, you know, there's, there's companies that build themselves, like, just around that identity, you know, sports companies. So I, I.
- [40:39]
C
Yeah, I gotta say, it's going anywhere. Cover 3 search firm is tremendous at what it does, but Cover 3 agency is horrible. Yes, Clark Lee is available. Come with your best offer.
- [40:50]
A
Let's go.
- [40:51]
C
So is Eli Drinkwitz.
- [40:53]
B
Come with your best offer.
- [40:54]
C
Let's see what you got. They are itching to get out, but only if the right deal comes along.
- [41:01]
A
Eli Drinkwitz, top five coach available?
- [41:05]
C
Yes, Eli, definitely available. In fact, I, I heard he's actively looking to get out of Columbia. Just, you know, he's calling every school and saying, hey, can I work for you, everybody? So I would say if we, if we look at it more as the names that you hear bandied about for these possible openings, regardless of whether they're interested or not, I would say yes, both are top five.
- [41:26]
B
Yep.
- [41:27]
A
Coming up on the other side, a few more games or matchups of note. Day trading Danny and more Nukest.
- [41:40]
C
When did making plans get this complicated? It's time to streamline with WhatsApp, the secure messaging app that brings the whole group together. Use polls to settle dinner plans, send event invites and pin messages so no one forgets more. Mom's 60th. And never miss a meme or milestone. All protected with end to end encryption. It's time for WhatsApp message privately with everyone.
- [42:04]
A
Learn more@WhatsApp.com this episode is brought to.
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C
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B
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C
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- [42:33]
A
All right, before we get to some of the mid game breakdowns and matchups of note, we got to make sure that we check in with the market. It is day trading, Danny.
- [42:50]
B
All right.
- [42:51]
D
Market is open. You know, one thing I'm really happy about is that, you know, I've been taking a lot of advice from Fournelli advisors. It was good to see that he made a purchase on one of my recommendations. Last week he was buying up some Brendan Sorsby Stock. So good to see this kind of spreading out, seeing him taking some advice, going the other way. I gotta buy on USF as the team from the group of five to make the College Football Playoff. I think it's becoming clear. I know they have a big game this weekend against Memphis, but I think they're the best team in the group of five. I think they are going to win the American, and I think they might be one. I think they'll be better than Boise State last year in the sense that they'll be more capable to pull off potential upset. I don't know if we'll ever see it, but I think they'll have. And it's only been a short window. We've seen Cincinnati get in. We saw them play Bama.
- [43:43]
C
Okay.
- [43:44]
D
I think USF could be a problem for whatever team they go against.
- [43:49]
A
If. I mean, they're playing in Memphis. We talked about the injury to quarterback Brendan Lewis last I checked yesterday, day to day. You know, we'll see whether or not he's going to try to gut out through what's being called a lower body injury or whether we're going to have to go to the backup for that. But if they are able to get through, they are off in week 10. And then the concluding schedule. UTSA at Navy at UAB and Rice. The. The numbers I would point you to would be the defensive numbers of all four of those teams. USF is not going to have trouble scoring points. And defensively that it's a group that I think very much is a. Like, I do not consider them dominant, but I definitely consider them good enough to be able to get there and then give themselves a good chance to win. We are definitely staring down the potential of that being a 12 and 1 type American conference champ. So. I like that right there.
- [44:42]
D
All right. I have a. Did you have some bud?
- [44:46]
B
I was going to ask you, would you buy USF against the field?
- [44:56]
D
I never take the. I always take the field, so I think you'd be crazy to do that. But I still think USF is the team.
- [45:03]
A
JMU is your biggest threat from the field, I think.
- [45:07]
C
Oh, Navy doesn't exist anymore.
- [45:09]
B
Not too Lane.
- [45:10]
A
Well, if USF goes unbeaten, then they bounce Navy.
- [45:14]
D
Right.
- [45:15]
C
I gotta play them first, though.
- [45:17]
D
You want some Navy? Is that what you're getting in on?
- [45:20]
C
I. I respect the troops, but I forgot you're a commie. You know, you've been hating the troops since last year. So.
- [45:26]
D
Hey, I took army last week as a moneyline sprinkle and almost had it for some circus catch. At the end of that game, I.
- [45:32]
A
I, I listened to John Summerall's words when he says, this team is going to give me a heart attack. And if I was emotionally invested into lane football, I'd agree with you. Because, buddy, this team is talented and flawed and has performances that are flawed. We'll see if it catches up with them. But yeah, I'm, I think the EKG meter of Tulane, even within the course of a game, is not something I'm ready to buy. I don't have, I don't have the stones for those kinds of investments.
- [46:02]
D
Danny, multiple people saying, I'm buying at the high. Do you realize how much sometimes you miss out on a stock because you're unwilling to buy it high? Like Google was Google all the time. Right. I mean, it just keeps going higher. So I'm gonna say that. They also say I sell low, which is where I'm gonna sell my Carson Beck Heisman stock. I don't think you can recover from that performance. That might be the obvious one out there, but here is the buy low. I still think the Miami Hurricanes could win the national championship. They're 16 to 1. I don't think it's crazy. This is a team that just a week ago, we're all like, they look different. They have creatures. I know it wasn't a great performance, but it was Carson Beck's worst performance of the year. If he just cleans up half of those, which I do think he can, I still think there could be some value to buy low on the Hurricanes right here. For all these people saying, buy high. You want some buy lows? You look at me all cross eyed. I can't believe you're gonna do that. I still think Miami could win the national championship.
- [47:05]
C
I am not buying that stock simply because I believe what we saw from Carson Beck last week is what you see from Carson Beck when he's under pressure. And to get through the playoff field, you are going to face some defensives who will put you under pressure.
- [47:19]
D
Like Notre Dames, I think.
- [47:23]
B
Is that the son of an orthopedic surgeon using the word cleanup in a, in a way to troll Miami fans? No, like, meaning like, like he needs additional elbow cleanup because he has a noodle arm right now and he's clearly still, like, hurt.
- [47:39]
D
His arm looked fine against Florida State. Some of those deep post throws looked fine.
- [47:43]
B
I'll go.
- [47:44]
D
Those are easier than ripping it on a rope. I think he's fine. I don't think it's a Health thing. I think it's a decision making thing like it's always been for him.
- [47:53]
A
You know, if you were trying to make this like a, a cash out situation, you know, if you're just trying to make an investment with plans to sell. But if you are trying to ride this out through the last Monday night of the season, I will meet you in the exchange and I will take the other side of that gladly. Here's the problem about Miami's loss to Louisville as it pertains to the national championship. By losing that game, I think they've lost the shot at getting a buy. And that means to win the national championship, that is four wins against some of the best teams in the country. And I do not trust this quarterback in this Miami team to win four consecutive games against the best teams in the country.
- [48:31]
C
I think if Miami won out and won the ACC, they'd still get a buy. They might be the 4 seed, but I think they'd get a buy if they're 12 and 1.
- [48:41]
B
Who do you, who do you trust to win four games against the best teams in the country?
- [48:46]
D
Ohio State or Indiana maybe? That's why I think this thing is wide open. That's why I think there could be value on Miami.
- [48:52]
C
Alabama could do it.
- [48:55]
D
They just had a pretty nice stretch.
- [48:56]
B
Simpson looks pretty good.
- [48:58]
C
Yeah.
- [48:58]
A
Yeah. They basically have had a college football playoff in the middle of the season.
- [49:02]
C
Yeah, There are very few teams, I think, who could though.
- [49:08]
D
All right, so I have another Heisman. This is a by high. Now this, I think this category, this category of Heisman candidate is sort of what Carson Beckman last week was before his. Because he was the favorite last week. Now this is not the favorite, but I think if you just maintain, just keep it on the tracks, you could be the last man standing. You may not have the Heisman moment, but you may not need it. I just saw him in person, Julian saying, from the Ohio State Buckeyes. I would snatch up a little bit of his Heisman stock. He's putting together numbers. Jeremiah Smith has been awesome, but he's not really. They were neck and neck. I think it was 13:1 and 14:1 last week. And then he was quiet. Julian saying, had the big game. I think the way teams are playing Jeremiah Smith, it's not going to allow him to get it as a receiver to have that type of performance. I don't think Julian Sane is going to get tested. I think he's just going to continue to rack up stats and if he has a good game in the Big Ten championship game. I think he's that last man standing where. I like Ty Simpson a lot, but he's got much tougher games down the stretch. And if you slip up in one of those and it may not even matter, they could still win the national championship. I think he drops below Julian Saying.
- [50:19]
B
It's such a weird Heisman market right now. I mean, Joey aguilar is top 20 in the Heisman odds. You know, like, that's. That's wild. Stupid. Let me spend you something here, Danny, on. On this, because I think saying's awesome. I mean, there's very few guys. I think right now you take over him. And I know he's got awesome receivers, but just, like, the ball is just so on time and accurate. Would you. Do you think there's a media narrative to be crafted if you wanted to buy mater at like, 90? Hey, man, he lost the Texas game. Rushed back too early. He's a warrior. He wanted to help his team. The thumb wasn't right yet. Blah, blah, blah. Like, if OU goes on a run, it's gonna be because he's making a lot of highlight plays. He's gonna be in a lot of national TV games. Like, this is a long shot. I know, but it is a long shot today.
- [51:19]
D
I know. If we were looking for a long shot, maybe I'd rather. Well, CJ cars at 50 to 1.
- [51:29]
A
This is where I've got to get my. You know, Carson's not gonna have.
- [51:31]
B
Get. Like, he doesn't have the. The moments to. To, like, I think he's playing as good. Yeah, that's almost anyone in the country. But, like, who do they have Left on national TV?
- [51:38]
A
No, but look at that.
- [51:40]
D
Brendan Sorsby at 101.
- [51:42]
A
You guys are talking about all players from the same region. And don't forget, Heisman votes are split up like an electoral map.
- [51:49]
B
Who's gonna win?
- [51:50]
A
The South. If Saiyan and Mendoza and CJ Are all sitting there.
- [51:57]
B
The south would vote for the SEC team.
- [52:00]
C
I. I don't think saying's gonna get nearly enough support to win the Heisman. I. I think that just. And we. I talked about it Saturday night. I think the discourse around O is, like, saying is just dismissed. They think he's just a good player on a really good team and he's taking advantage of it. I disagree, but disagrees. I think Mendoza has the Midwest wrapped up because Indiana's probably not going to lose. He's going to keep racking up really good numbers, and maybe he plays, like, completely awful in A Big Ten championship game and it tanks his stock. But frankly, if I'm buying any Heisman stock right now, I'm just putting a lot of money on both Ty Simpson and Fernando Mendoza and then feeling pretty good about the fact I'll make something.
- [52:42]
A
Correct me if I'm wrong, but in 2021, the Bryce Young Heisman win was not something that he was running away with all year. That was a last man standing. And the final statement was beating Kirby Smart's Georgia defense in the SEC championship. There could be a scenario, whether it's Mendoza or saying you're going into the Big Ten title game and whoever ends up being the star there could end up being a swing for a lot of voters.
- [53:10]
C
Now, you know who could be a decent long shot. And it's not the long, long shot. Stockton.
- [53:18]
D
Yeah.
- [53:19]
A
They just winning. And he's, and he just is the.
- [53:23]
C
Because there's no superstar on that offense.
- [53:25]
B
Yeah, I mean he's, I think it speaks to the Heisman race today that we're using the term long shot. And he's sixth.
- [53:33]
C
Right.
- [53:33]
B
You know what I mean?
- [53:36]
D
Last one I got for you. And I almost fell to my chair when I heard this because our girl Mackenzie, I saw her on the set of HQ and I can't believe she's making this case, but she said, don't count out the Texas Longhorns at 9 and 3. I am selling that all day long. If they are 9 and 3, they better not get in. I mean, I, I, I will personally make it a mission of mine to try to do my best to keep them out. Is this a good sell though? Is this something where I could look foolish because their one loss was against Ohio State by one possession? Is this a. I think this is a sell all day long. But are any of you guys gonna buy that Texas is in at 9 and 3?
- [54:30]
B
I think because the non con game, they are one of the teams that would be in the discussion. Who, who is the third?
- [54:38]
A
So if I know MacKenzie's been, I know MacKenzie's been circulating the clip. I was a part of that segment, Danny. And what you might have heard when I was on there was, yeah, I don't think they're getting to 9 and 3.
- [54:49]
D
Right.
- [54:50]
B
That could be 84.
- [54:51]
A
I was like, mackenzie, talk to me when they get to nine and three before I'm ready to get there. Because I think the flaws are such that the wins that they would need the rest of the way would be a little bit too much to ask.
- [55:03]
C
She's a nerd it's lost in the numbers. She looks at the simulations and thinks that they have a chance. You got to know, like the other you mentioned, like their one losses to Ohio State. Well, there are other losses to a Florida team that might not get to a bowl game and just fired his coach. So they've got to play Vandy, Georgia and Texas A and M. So, yeah, if they win two of those three and like all three of those teams hang on. Like if, if they beat Vandy and they beat A and M because those are two home games and they're nine and three and you have those wins and Vandy still hanging on is like a top 15 team, A&M still in the top 10, Ohio State still number one. And you've got, you know, yeah, they've got a shot to get in, but they're going to need a lot of help.
- [55:40]
B
But to your point, kind of like.
- [55:42]
D
The Oklahoma discussion we had where if they lose against Ole Miss, then they're just not that good. I feel. That's the way I feel. We already are with Texas. Like, we can talk about them being 9 and 3. I don't think they're that good.
- [55:53]
A
Yeah.
- [55:53]
C
And like, like Chip said, I. I don't think they're getting to nine and three. And if they do get to nine and three and they do get like a 12 or 11 seed in the playoff, they're just going to lose 16 to 10 in the first round and we're all gonna be like, thank God that's over.
- [56:06]
A
All right. That it's closed. Market's closed. All right. Appreciate that, Danny. Lots of other, excuse me. Lots of other games all across the country. One that I know I wanted to turn your attention to is one that, listen, Bud Elliott has already purchased all of the Iowa State gear that is available. Okay? We're going to be talking about a guy who is just head to toe in. In all the Cyclones gear. He. He might actually be in Ames, you know, by the time Saturday we might be doing it. But that Golden Cardinal of the, of the Iowa State Cyclones, it's just going to be, it's going to be Bud Elliott because his. His number one enemy in college football. The BYU Cougars are still undefeated and they are underdogs to an Iowa State team that has already got two losses on the season. But is there any way that BYU can keep getting away with it?
- [57:06]
B
Yeah, they absolutely get away with it.
- [57:08]
C
Right?
- [57:08]
B
Iowa State's run defense has been like, bad this year. BYU runs the football extremely well with LJ Martin, their Offensive line is a pretty good run blocking offensive line. I mean, if Iowa State cannot get BYU behind the chains, then BYU's gonna have a pretty good shot to win this ball game. You know, it's not like, it's not like Rocco Beck is some amazing run threat. BYU is going to be like a very aggressive man, coverage, defense. Iowa State receivers this year have been kind of up and down. Yeah. Like BYU has a real shot to win us. I understand why Iowa State is favored. Like it's not like they're favored by, by 20. I mean, this is kind of a coin flip game and I don't really hate the matchups here for byu.
- [57:54]
C
Yeah, I don't think Iowa State should be favored. Be honest with you. I don't think this is a very good matchup for the Cyclones right now. I think that you go back a few weeks, you remember what Cincinnati did to Iowa State.
- [58:06]
A
Ran right at them.
- [58:07]
B
Yeah.
- [58:07]
C
There's absolutely no reason to think BYU can't do the same damn thing. They are very similar teams. They don't do everything exactly the same way. But there are a lot of similarities, both of the offenses. And I think that's going to be problem. And I, I don't really hold it against Iowa State like we saw last year. John Haycock did a great job scheming around the fact that all his linebackers died. This year it's been the corners who have died and they're just dealing with a bunch of injuries on this unit. And as good of a coordinator as he is, there's only so much you can do when you're dealing with the losses that this team has lost on defense. So when you see their performance on defense over the last few weeks, there's a reason it's falling off a cliff, man. They just don't have the guys out there available to play right now. Now if they get healthy, you know, maybe they've got a shot, but I just don't know how they're going to be able to like. Iowa State's path to victory here is limit possessions, keep their defense off the field as much as possible because BYU is probably going to be able to put together like a lot of 8, 9, 10 play drives where they're just grounded and pounding, yet it's going to wear them down. So you got to keep them off. The question is, can you do that with your rushing attack because you don't have a great rushing attack or do you just have Rocco kind of just do a whole lot of short passing? And I think that's really the best way for them to get out there and win and then, you know, maybe force a few turnovers. But it's just right now BYU is a better football team and I don't think that the market has really caught on with this spread. In fact, on Thursday morning when limits go up, I would bet that line moves.
- [59:38]
B
Did.
- [59:39]
A
Did.
- [59:39]
B
Is Dom Orange gonna play for Iowa State? Because I know he got hurt again last game. I haven't seen an update on this. That's a pretty big one.
- [59:47]
C
Sure. Yeah.
- [59:48]
B
Like from the idea of we. We talked about earlier in this show, who's run D is maybe like permissive, maybe they're not quite as bad. I kind of think Iowa State has that right now as well because of how many injuries they have to the secondary. Like are they having to call the defense in such a way that protects the secondary, which of course is going to allow more of that run game success.
- [60:13]
A
It is, I mean make all your jokes about chocolate milk and hangovers, but it is a hangover game. You just played at home against your biggest rival in a close, competitive, hard hitting, hard fought game. Iowa State, while their corners might be out for the year as a team, they were off last week as much time as possible to get healthy and to get ready to give a true like boxer gets up off the mat and throws a punch. You know, like I don't ever expect a Matt Campbell team to quit. I don't put Matt Campbell teams on quit watch. But if we want to talk about Iowa State making one last effort to crash the Big 12 title picture, they're 2 and 2 in conference play. It's a gotta have it game. So whether it's, yeah. Whether it's short little dinks and dunks to make up for a run game that isn't as effective on a down to down basis, whether it's Rocco just having to figure it out, maybe make some plays with his legs, that whatever you have to do to scheme it up. This is a gotta have it game for the Cyclones in terms of any 2025, any 2025 goals that they've had fascinated for that one out in Jack Trice Stadium. Any other matchups you want to highlight before, before we get out of here?
- [61:36]
B
A lot of them are Big Ten. So we took care of that in yesterday's big game breakdowns on. On the Big Ten show on CBS Sports Network on cable, noon on Tuesdays. I mean, I think Auburn, Arkansas is all kinds of fun. It's not really like, like it's Certainly not a big game breakdown but I mean that's Arkansas is favored so.
- [61:54]
A
Yeah, I want like one point, point and a half though, right?
- [61:58]
C
Yeah, he was just waiting for that vote of confidence and then Auburn will be ready to go.
- [62:04]
B
Should the, should Nebraska be a 7 1/2 point favorite over Northwestern?
- [62:15]
C
I don't know.
- [62:17]
A
I tell you what, Matt Rule, he came out and said it, you know, he, he did the, he did a very well executed head coach, coach speak. Talking to my fans, talking to my players, talking to everybody at once. Starts with a. I didn't coach well, I take all the responsibility. Then right before the answer ends up he goes, I mean we got guys diving at players, legs on tackles. You know, it's like, like I need to do better of getting them ready to play. I need to do better of getting ready to play. These players are making weak ass tackles and not putting effort out there. That's my fault. You know, like it was, I mean like chef's kiss on the double edged sword that we had right there. But he said I, I think we will show up better. We would. Then he stopped himself and said we will show up in a way, I mean that's, he admitted that was an egg of a performance for Nebraska against Minnesota. Now they're back at home and if you're saying should they be a seven and a half the way that you said that was like is Northwestern a bigger threat here than the seven and a half might be suggesting or are you saying Nebraska should be favored by two touchdowns?
- [63:32]
B
No, I, I'm just not sure that Nebraska is trustworthy. But I'm certainly not saying that Northwestern is super trustworthy either.
- [63:40]
C
Frisky.
- [63:41]
B
Yeah, I think San Diego, San Diego State, Fresno is pretty interesting this weekend.
- [63:49]
A
Huge.
- [63:50]
B
Kansas, Kansas State is always like the Sunflower Sunflower Showdown. That's always a, a pretty interesting one to watch it and usually one that's, that's fairly crazy. Temple, Tulsa, two teams I like to bet on a lot. So they're playing each other this week. So that's gonna be difficult to. Yeah, exactly.
- [64:08]
A
A Temple Tulsa might be. That might, that might be a good a reason to get out and dance.
- [64:13]
B
Tomorrow on the COVID Three Lock spot man, Georgia Tech. That's a lot of points against Syracuse.
- [64:21]
A
Syracuse.
- [64:24]
B
I know but that's a lot of points. Oh, we'll see.
- [64:28]
C
Can Wisconsin go three straight games without scoring a point?
- [64:32]
B
All right. One. That's a lit. Yeah, that's, that's actually pretty interesting. Texas is a seven point favorite against Mississippi State. Mississippi State's been taking money moneyline alt line.
- [64:45]
A
Yeah. Or maybe I mean under is I think my, my best play there but like I, I could see Texas not letting Mississippi State score a touchdown. I could see and like just going on to like a 17 to 6 kind of win. But if it's close, maybe they do it. I just don't think, you know, we think Jeff Lebby, Blake Shapen. I mean I trust Yalls eyes more than mine sometimes. Like but I don't think Mississippi State has an awesome passing attack.
- [65:14]
B
I would agree they do have a bad run D. But Texas doesn't really have a run game.
- [65:19]
A
Right.
- [65:20]
B
At least not so much this year.
- [65:22]
C
It's very limited like evening slate on Saturday. As far as late game action.
- [65:26]
A
Love it.
- [65:27]
C
But yeah, true.
- [65:30]
A
We'll get started on time. We'll get started on time. We'll be prepared. I am excited not to have five huge games all going on and ending the minute we're supposed to be going on the podcast.
- [65:42]
B
There is, there is early potential, sure.
- [65:45]
C
The spread is seven and a half and I understand it. But I am also very interested in Arizona State. Houston. Yeah, that's a game that could have like Arizona State. Obviously they're coming off the Texas Tech win. They won the Big 12 last year. But if Houston goes into like Tempe and wins that game, it's like, it's like, do I have to start considering Houston a serious threat?
- [66:06]
A
They'd be 7 and 1.
- [66:08]
C
That's what I'm saying. And they'd also be 4 and 1 in the Big 12.
- [66:11]
A
Yeah, I know. So the, and the rest of their.
- [66:14]
C
Schedule there's, I mean they got West Virginia, UCF and then TCU and Baylor. So it's not like, you know, they're, there's, you know, whatever, but just compared to what it could be.
- [66:25]
A
So yeah, I gave Arizona State, Texas Tech a fresh rewatch yesterday. Arizona State is not, they are not gonna against plus value teams in the Big 12. They are not a team that's just gonna beat your ass and blow you out of the water. You know, I just don't think they're built that way right now. Kieran in the tailgate mentioned the one I was just about to turn your attention to Winston Salem, North Carolina, noon Eastern Time kickoff. SMU, which is, wait for it, 110 in regular season ACC games all time.
- [67:04]
C
Never lost.
- [67:05]
A
SMU 11. 0 in regular season games all time. That is something, that is something that North Carolina football throughout its entire history as an ACC charter member has only done twice. Eleven straight games. Once under, once under duly. Once under Curry. And yeah, SMU came and did it. Just won their first 11 games. They were a three and a half point favorite against Jake Dickert's Wake Forest Demon Deacons. They of course they just second straight road game. They just beat Clemson in Death Valley. It's a Tom's own point. Clemson lost in Death Valley and it was not Even a top 15 result for us to discuss.
- [67:44]
B
Yeah, probably because the quarterbacks if he had not been out, that's a bigger we would have discussed.
- [67:52]
A
But I mean Kevin Jennings gets all the heroics for getting it done and beating Clemson on a bum ankle, but that's still Kevin Jennings on a bum ankle. And now they got to turn right around and play a Wake Forest team that if nothing else they do a good job defending the run and at least are are solid in that aspect of their game. Ponies on ponies are also 3.0in ACC play, obviously being 11.0 overall. The Ponies on upset alert.
- [68:21]
C
Yes.
- [68:21]
B
Yeah. Yeah.
- [68:24]
C
This is your. This is your territory, not mine.
- [68:27]
A
Yeah, I know you know, they have.
- [68:28]
B
Been pretty good in the like, I know they've been good in AC play regardless. But they have. Last year they came out and they, they just had an absolute awesome effort at Louisville, but I don't think they played a road game after that.
- [68:42]
C
Right.
- [68:43]
A
You had a couple.
- [68:44]
B
They had a couple kind of close calls at home. You know the. There was what last year I can remember the Boston College game. I felt like BC hung with them pretty well for most of that game. The Florida State game turned when the ball hit the tight end in the face and it bounced up and like, you know, pick six. Didn't that kind of snowballed. Yeah, I I don't know, man. Like, can they get up for second straight game?
- [69:09]
A
It'll be. And that Wake Forest last week was off. So. So that'll be another one to keep an eye on. Any. Any others you want to turn our turn our attention to before we start to start to look ahead to locks.
- [69:21]
B
Some of the chat wants Bama, South Carolina. But like man, if you lose that one.
- [69:25]
A
We actually held a podcast meeting about that. Decided it wasn't a big game. Famous last words. I'm sure if the board drop.
- [69:32]
B
If the board drops that one. All those week one questions come crashing back for.
- [69:36]
A
Yeah.
- [69:37]
B
Not saying they should, but they will.
- [69:39]
A
Have you all been taken in the truck feed of Alabama coming out of the tunnel?
- [69:45]
C
No.
- [69:46]
B
Yeah, I finally saw it. It was pretty cool.
- [69:48]
A
Yeah, I mean it's a super inside production thing. Like I don't know how many people care enough to know what it sounds like for a director talking to all the different prep 2 take 2 take prep 5 take 5 and like to to see how they handled what was and again as I think I said it on the on the Monday show Brian Danny Stadium was on fire on Saturday night and the way that they captured that moment. Kaylin DeBoer smacking the the stanchion as he's coming out getting fired up to a little thunderstruck. It was. It was super cool. It is. We all have our ultimate biases are our own experience. Our own experiences. I will always be biased by the state of college football. As you know we started working especially here at CBS when Alabama's got a team. It it makes me feel some kind of way. It's cool. I like to see that. I don't love to see losing as a double digit favorite but when they're coming out and that place is rocking, it's. Yeah, I'm a sucker for it. All right.
- [70:48]
C
Roll Tide, Chip.
- [70:49]
A
Roll tide. We will be back on Thursday 11am Eastern Time. It is the best time of the week. It is when we give you our locks for the weekend. So come and hang out. Get the likes up to get the locks because the locks move lines. You know the deal by now. And you can follow him on Twitter at Tom Frinelli. You can follow him@bud Elliot3. You follow me at Chip underscore Patterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much.
- [71:17]
C
Thank you.
- [71:18]
B
See y' all the secrets out.
- [71:20]
C
May I speak freely?
- [71:22]
B
I prefer English. The Naked Guy is now streaming on Paramount plus.
- [71:25]
D
I've seen it a hundred times. It's a return to comedic glory.
- [71:28]
B
A little lower.
- [71:29]
C
A return to comedic glory. That's awesome.
- [71:31]
D
The naked cockpit of PG13 now streaming on Paramount Plus.