Cover 3 College Football Podcast – Big Ten Show: Illinois-Washington | Minnesota-Iowa | Indiana-UCLA

Date: October 21, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Bud Elliott

Overview

This episode dives deep into the pivotal matchups and playoff race in the Big Ten as Week 9 approaches. The hosts break down Illinois' crucial trip to Washington, the Minnesota-Iowa rivalry for the iconic Floyd of Rosedale, and UCLA's Cinderella run facing a surging Indiana. The crew debates potential playoff teams beyond the established “Big Three,” examines games that will define the conference, and spotlights key players to watch.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Big Ten Playoff Contenders: Who Else Beyond the "Big Three"?

Main Theme: The Big Ten playoff picture is dominated by Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon, but the panel debates which team could sneak into the fourth spot.

Candidates Discussed:

• Illinois (Tom Fornelli, 02:24)

  • Two losses only to Ohio State (No. 1) and Indiana (No. 2).
  • Potential for a 10-2 finish if they win at Washington and close out against weaker opponents.
  • Rationale: "If you treat them like an SEC team, their losses are better than some teams' wins...I like the Illini’s chances if they can beat the Huskies." (03:56, Tom)

• USC (Bud Elliott, 04:16)

  • Needs Big 12, ACC to be one-bid leagues.
  • Road games, esp. at Oregon, are hurdles; must run the table.
  • "USC really has some firepower and if they can just click down the stretch, they're going to have to solve this like playing road games in other time zones problem..." (05:11, Bud)

• Michigan (Chip Patterson, 05:28)

  • Path hinges on beating Ohio State in Ann Arbor.
  • Some resume flaws (e.g. loss to USC) but could be offset by marquee wins.
  • "If you beat Ohio State and you're sitting there as a two-loss team with that kind of quality win, you're going to have a great argument." (06:16, Chip)

On a Three-Loss Playoff Team:

• Bud: "Very high probability it'll be a three-loss team from the SEC if it happens...these Big Ten [schedules] ... just won't rate as highly." (07:37)
• Tom: Realistically, only a wild scenario of national chaos gets a 9-3 Big Ten team in, and most teams need 10-2 for serious consideration.

2. Illinois at Washington – Big Game Breakdown

Washington’s Offensive Struggles (12:32)

• Tom: Washington's offensive efficiency plummeted in Big Ten play—from 5.28 ppp (non-con) to 1.88 ppp (conf.).
• Losing key starters, notably LT Maximus McCree (out for season), and TE (carted off last week).
• "If you can't block it up, all the window dressing Fish is going to scheme up...just doesn't work." (14:14, Bud)
• Defenses (Ohio State, Michigan) have held Washington to a single TD or less.

Illinois’ Chances as the Underdog (16:21)

• Bud: Illinois healthier, well-coached; their two losses to elite teams are explainable (injuries in secondary at Indiana).
• QB Luke Altmire is experienced; offense needs to avoid pre-snap mistakes in hostile Husky Stadium.
• Tom: "If Altmire gets time, he's been one of the best QBs in the country. When he doesn't, things go a little haywire." (18:52)

X-Factors and Players to Watch

• Gabe Akkis (Illinois pass rusher) facing Washington’s backup LT—potential for game-changing pressure.
• Hank Beatty (Illinois WR), Colin Dixon (WR), and Khalil Valentine (RB) expected to be central to Illini offense.

Outlook

• All agree it will be a test of depth, execution under pressure, and which squad can exploit the other's injuries and weaknesses.

3. Minnesota at Iowa: Floyd of Rosedale Rivalry

How Minnesota Got Here (21:34)

• Tom: "Minnesota's superpower is just the fact they don't turn the ball over...kind of looks like a peak Iowa team from the heyday."
• Nine sacks vs. Nebraska aided by Nebraska QB's mistakes.
• Offense is steady, if unspectacular; avoids gifting short fields.

Iowa’s Resurgence (25:15)

• Bud: Mark Gronowski’s running is a major weapon; Iowa's run game is focal point.
• Strong offensive line; will test Gopher run defense.
• Tom: "We're in year two [post-Ferentz]. They're basically an option offense because Gronowski is a better runner than passer." (25:47)
• Iowa defense has rebounded after early worries, especially the secondary. “From that point on they have been playing very well...they are not giving up explosives.” (26:55)

What’s at Stake?

• Winner could climb higher in Big Ten standings than teams discussed as CFP dark horses.
• 8-4 or 9-3 seasons in play for Iowa; if not for an early loss to Iowa State, would be a genuine playoff dark horse.

4. UCLA at Indiana: Can Cinderella’s Run Continue?

UCLA’s Surprise Surge (33:21)

• Jerry Neuheisel (OC) and Tim Skipper (Interim HC) lean into QB Nico Ayama Leova’s dual-threat skills.
• "After Sean Foster was fired...they've used Nico more in the run game which has helped run game overall." (33:38, Tom)
• Recent win at Maryland was their worst offensive showing since staff change.
• Both Tom & Bud think that if play/turnovers from Maryland game repeat, Indiana could rout them.

Indiana’s Transformation (37:29)

• Bud: Indiana has become a "go beat you" team rather than just an opportunistic one.
• QB Fernando Mendoza is a first-round NFL prospect; OL transfers have panned out.
• Scheme on defense creates turnovers, busts opponent protections, dominates line of scrimmage. ("Look what they did to Oregon...figuring out where the weak points are and hitting them." – Bud, 38:18)
• Tom: Coaching bravado now backed by talent; Mendoza is a massive upgrade over last year's QB. Team poised for a playoff BYE if they keep winning.

Hoosiers’ Playoff Outlook

• "If [Indiana gets] to Indianapolis and they’re not 12-0, something went wrong along the lines..." (41:39, Tom)
• Both Tom and Bud see 12-0 as likely barring a shocking upset; now in “take care of business” mode.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Tom, on Illinois’ playoff hopes:
  "If we treat them like SEC teams, I would point out that the two losses the Illini have are to the number one and number two teams in the country. Those losses are better than some teams' wins. That's the propaganda I've always heard coming from the SEC, so I'm going to use it to my advantage here for Illinois." (03:13)

• Bud, on Washington's struggles:
  "They held Washington to an incredibly low rushing success rate. Demond Williams throws those back-to-back picks that were pretty crippling to start the third quarter in Michigan. Once [Michigan] had the lead, they were just going to put you in a headlock and not let go." (14:03)

• Tom, on Iowa's offensive identity:
  "Tim Lester came in, everybody said he's going to modernize Iowa's offense. Here we are in year two and they're basically an option offense, because Gronowski has been a better runner than a passer." (25:47)

• Bud, on Indiana’s growth:
  "Last year Indiana never beat themselves and would make opportunistic plays. This year they go out and beat people...Mendoza is a legitimate first-round prospect, Surat is a receiver who is going to get drafted. Cooper is a pretty darn good number two." (37:29)

• Tom, on Indiana’s new mentality:
  "They're on the road at Oregon, one of the most difficult places for anybody to play, against one of the best teams in the country, and they step in there like 'we're the better team in this building' from the very start." (39:04)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Playoff Contender Debate: 00:50 – 09:24
• Illinois at Washington Preview: 11:23 – 19:36
• Minnesota at Iowa “Floyd of Rosedale” Rivalry: 19:36 – 30:52
• Indiana vs. UCLA Preview: 31:55 – 43:08
• Indiana’s Path to 12-0 & Playoff BYE Discussion: 41:39 – 43:08
• Players to Watch (Big Ten Week 9): 43:56 – 45:47

Players to Watch – Week 9

• Aiden Childs (QB, Michigan State)
  "Playing the rest of the season for a payday...has some ability, had some nice flashes. Want to see if he can put it together more consistently." (43:56, Bud)

• Mark Gronowski (QB, Iowa)
  "I'm here to make a bold prediction...he's going to throw a touchdown. It's bold because he hasn't thrown a TD pass in Big Ten play, only on September 13th vs. UMass. But I think he breaks through this week." (44:27, Tom)

• Caleb Komalafe (RB, Northwestern)
  "He’s been huge. His teammates call him 'The Beast'...If Northwestern is going to go into Lincoln and come out with the win and bowl eligibility, they're going to need Komalafe to get it done." (45:21, Chip)

Tone and Style

The episode mixes deep statistical analysis with humor, insider knowledge, and a lively, conversational style. The hosts oscillate between sharp tactical breakdowns ("window dressing stuff...doesn't matter if you're losing at the line of scrimmage") and fun jabs ("Tim Lester going to modernize, now they're an option offense"). They interweave talk of playoff scenarios and on-field matchups, all grounded in first-hand observations and a touch of self-deprecating commentary ("If Danny were here, he might be stuck with the dunce cap in option D – there is no fourth team, Chip!").

Summary for the Uninitiated

If you missed the episode, you’ll come away understanding:

• Why the Big Ten has three clear playoff contenders—and what makes the race for a fourth spot so contentious.
• How key injuries, coaching changes, and evolving offensive/defensive identities shape the biggest games: Illinois-Washington, Minnesota-Iowa, and Indiana-UCLA.
• The specific players and matchups that may define who rises and falls in the stretch run.
• Why Indiana, a "take-care-of-business" juggernaut this year, now sits on the cusp of a playoff BYE—a prospect unthinkable just a season ago.

No fluff, no ad recaps—just trenchant analysis, winning banter, and all the college football energy any Big Ten fan needs heading into a massive weekend.