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Cover 3 College Football
Big Ten Show: Illinois-Washington | Minnesota-Iowa | Indiana-UCLA | Cover 3 College Football
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- [00:00]
A
This episode of the COVID 3 podcast is presented by Cash App. For a limited time only, new Cash App users can use our show's code when they sign up for a reward. Just download Cash App, use our code cover 3 and send $5 to a friend. Within 14 days, you'll get $10 right in your account. Terms apply. That's money. That's Cash App. And welcome Back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fornelli. That's Bud Elliott. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you live on CBS Sports Network. Fired up to get you set for Week 9 in the Big Ten. Lots to get to, including our big game breakdown for the Fighting Illini of Illinois. Trip out west to go take on Washington. We have the Floyd of Rosedale. Let's go. It's a pig. We are fighting for one of the best rivalry trophies in all of college football. That, of course, is your game on CBS between Minnesota and Iowa. And as UCLA just continues its surge of winning, now they meet one of the hottest teams in all of college football, Indiana. UCLA at Indiana. We'll get into that one as well as our players of the week. But gentlemen, we wanted to start with a look at the College Football Football Playoff because it doesn't matter whether you check out the odds or whether you check out our friends at SportsLine, there is a big three when it comes to the Big Tens college football playoff picture. Ohio State, obviously, the number one team in the country, has shown the form. They've got the schedule. They, they look like they have a very solid path. Indiana has a little bit of wiggle room after that win against Oregon and the Oregon Ducks. My, my, my, what a response from the Ducks. The they look like they are not going to let one loss turn into two. So that's kind of our Big three. Which brought us to the question, who could be the fourth or maybe even fifth if you think so much, who would be the next team in terms of the College Football Playoff future? So, Tom Fornelli, as you look into your crystal ball, who do you think could emerge from the rest of the conference to join Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon potentially as Big Ten teams in the College Football Playoff?
- [02:25]
B
Well, I think if you look at the odds boards, there are teams that are have better odds according to the, the math and the analysts. But the team I'm looking at feels like a team that I think if they get through this weekend unscathed, has a very realistic shot of finishing fourth in the conference and being in the running for that Playoff spot. Talking about the Illinois Fighting Illini, a team that, you know, if, if we treat them like we treat SEC teams, I would point out that the two losses that the align I have are to the number one team in the country in Ohio State and the number two team in Indiana, which means those losses are better than some of the wins that teams have. That's the propaganda I've always heard coming from the sec. So I'm going to use it to my advantage here for the Alinai. And you look at their schedule you mentioned we're going to talk about it later in the show. They're going on the road to play Washington and they're, they're about four and a half five point underdogs there. They are not favored to win the game. It's going to be tough to go on the road and win in that stadium. But if they do, the schedule lightens up considerably after that. They come back home for three of their final four games against Rutgers, Maryland, Wisconsin and Northwestern. Of those four teams, Northwestern looks like the only one that we can actually count on getting to a bowl game this season. Whereas Rutgers is completely cratered after a nice start. Maryland, same story. Wisconsin, I don't even understand what they're still doing at this point. That team hasn't scored a point in three weeks so they don't look like much of a, you know, a foe for the alliance. So we're looking at a situation where Illinois could finish the season 10 and 2 with eight wins over Power 4 Conference teams and two losses to teams who will likely be in the College Football playoff. Now We've only got one full year of a 12 team field to look at, but typically going 10 and 2 in a Power 4 league with losses to two other playoff teams, it's probably going to earn you an at large bid in the college football playoffs. So I like the aligned eyes chances if they can beat the Huskies this weekend.
- [04:17]
C
Tom, I think that's a great pick. I'm going to go with USC and a couple things need to happen if the Trojans are going to make the playoff one, you're going to need the Big 12 and the ACC to be one bid leaks. You obviously don't have the head to head win against Notre Dame but of course the committee wants to incentivize teams to play big time games and of course the Notre Dame game is a big time game so maybe they won't hold that loss, you know, too hard against the Trojans. They get the bye week this week. Maybe they regroup they're going to have to run the table. You get Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa, the big game at Oregon if they beat Oregon at Oregon, which is certainly not easy to do, although Indiana was able to do it just a couple weeks ago now and then finish off against a resurgent UCLA team. It's not that crazy to think the Big Ten could get four in the SEC, gets four in Big 12, one, AC1 and Notre Dame as in at large. That's a pretty difficult schedule for the Trojans and if they can get healthy, I do think they have the firepower to be in each of those games. Obviously all of these picks today are a bit of long shots, whereas we think that the top three in the Big Ten are locks. But USC really has some firepower and if they can just click down the stretch, they're going to have to solve this like playing road games in other time zones problem that they have seemed to have since joining the Big Ten. But I think it's possible.
- [05:28]
A
Yeah, we've also got the, the weird who's beaten who among some of these teams that we're bringing up. So spoiler alert, I'm going to go with the Michigan Wolverines. And very much like Bud's call of usc, there's just a mammoth game that could totally change Michigan's postseason outlook and it is the one that they have just won and 1 and 1 and 1. That's right. It is the rivalry game against Ohio State which this year is going to be in Ann Arbor. Kind of like with USC in the game against Oregon, it can be the kind of silver bullet that can overcome some flaws in the resume which include a head to head loss to USC and, and then that USC team has lost to Illinois. And so there is a little bit of a weird, you know, head to head conflict that we've got. But I think if you imagine what Michigan has done so far this year and you think about the way the rest of the season sets up, it's not crazy to think that an offense that continues to get a little bit more confident though we saw a little somewhat of a regression in the loss to the Trojans, but as Bryce Underwood continues to get better, they've got winnable games left on the schedule before they get into that game against Ohio State. And if you beat Ohio State and you were sitting there as a two loss team with that kind of quality win, well then you're going to have a great argument to be making an at large case for the College Football Playoff selection committee. One last follow up here I'd like to hear from you both. Maybe Bud. First, is there a path for either of the three teams that we have mentioned to make it at nine and three or have we all paved a path where you need to be 10 and 2 in order to get into the College Football Playoff?
- [07:08]
C
I think there is potentially a path for Michigan or probably not usc, but maybe just because they played that big non conference game. I think the path for Michigan is the most likely because if, if Oklahoma goes on a real run here, right and they finishes like Sec 3 then maybe that loss in Norman is a bit more excusable. Especially if they somehow know managed to beat Ohio State, they would have some big time wins on the resume and some of the losses may be a little bit more excusable for the Wolverines.
- [07:37]
B
Yeah, I, I don't see it. I, I, I think it's certainly possible if there's enough chaos elsewhere around the country. But I do feel like if we're going to see a three loss team in the College Football Playoff, very high probability it'll be a three loss team from the sec. Because when you look at the strength of schedule changes that they have supposedly made to the committee this year, like I know I took a shot at him earlier talking about how Illinois's losses are better than some teams wins but the fact of the matter is the SEC schedules are going to rate much better in that SOS metric than these Big Ten ones will between Michigan, Illinois and usc. So I think like if I, I look at the align, I, I don't, I don't think there's any chance that they can get through with a third loss. If I look at Michigan, maybe the Ohio State win would be enough. If I'm looking at USC if they lose to Oregon and their three losses are the three best teams that they've played, I don't know what they really have to hang their hat on. So I mean I, I think there's a far greater chance that the Big ten only gets three teams in than there chance that it gets a three loss team in.
- [08:35]
A
Yeah, we've offered up three options here. That of course being Tom with the Illinois fighting a line, I Bud with the USC Trojans and myself with the Michigan Wolverines. But all of them as you can see here, have to run the table from here on out. If Danny were here, he might be stuck with the dunce cap in option D. There is no fourth team Chip. That's the answer here. So an uphill battle but still one that it will be very interesting to track beginning with that Illinois at Washington game this weekend. Well, speaking of coming up on the other side, Big game breakdown style. Big time matchup in Seattle, Illinois out of an off week going to take on Washington. What we know and what we think. X Factors and more Next.
- [09:24]
B
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- [10:55]
D
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- [11:23]
A
Back here on the COVID 3 podcast, taking a look at some of the biggest matchups in the Big Ten for week nine. And we begin with Illinois Traveling to go take on Washington out in Seattle. Now Illinois had a week off to sort of reset from the season after a loss to Ohio State. But Washington Huskies definitely coming into this game licking some wounds after a defeat to Michigan, which the team was just able to muster 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7 points in that one. So I want to start with the Washington side because it's fresh in our minds. Tom, this is a Washington offense that on paper and sort of even in performance many times you would say this is one of the best, you know, big threes in the Big Ten. Of course I'm talking about quarterback Demond Williams, running back Jonah Coleman and wide receiver Denzel Boston. And yet when they went up against Ohio State, they just scored six points, two field goals. When they went up against Michigan, they scored just seven points. How do you wrestle with the potential and sometimes production of Washington's offense versus what we've seen against some of the Big Ten's best?
- [12:33]
B
Well, I mean the truth is Washington's offense has taken a nosedive in conference play compared to they were in non conference. Now you mentioned two of the teams that they played there does matter. The context of having to face Ohio State, the best team in the country and Michigan on the road definitely impacts it. But overall this is an offense that in non conference play had a was averaging 5.28 points per possession, had a success rate of 55.2% an in conference play that's dropped a 1.88 points per possession and a 45.9% success rate. They have had some serious issues moving the ball and that includes the Rutgers game in which Rutgers can't stop anybody. So Washington was able to move the ball in there, but it's just the other games have completely tanked. So now they're going to be facing this aligni team at home in desperate need of having to bounce back to keep their hopes both in the Big Ten and for the College Football Playoff alive. But another problem that they're facing is last week against Michigan. This team got healthy, they got a lot of players back that had been missing and then the Michigan game started and they lost a bunch more players. That includes their starting left tackle Maximus McCree who was hurt in the game and left and Jed Fish made it sound like he will be out for the season, let alone not back to playing this week. And the backup at that position did not look good in his place and really has not looked very good at any point when he's been on the field this year. So that is A serious concern for this unit against the Illinois defense because while they don't have an overall great pass rush, they do have an excellent pass rusher in Gabe Akkis, who I can assure you will be lined up across from Washington's backup left tackle on every single snap going into this game to see if they can get to Demond Williams and impact that offense. So it's going to be very interesting to see what Washington is able to do to overcome the injuries along their offensive line and finally get this offense back on track, because it's been disappointing in most of these games.
- [14:24]
C
Tom, I think you absolutely nailed it there. I think Jed Fish does a great job of scheming stuff up for quarterback Demon Williams and the trio, obviously with the receiver and the back. But one of the concerns we had about this team coming out of preseason camp was the depth along the lines of scrimmage on really, you know, both sides of it. And I feel like if you're not able to consistently block it up, a lot of the window dressing stuff that Fish is going to scheme up, the defense just doesn't have to fall for it as much because they're winning at the line of scrimmage. They held Washington to an incredibly low rushing success rate. Demond Williams throws those back to back picks that were pretty crippling there to start the third quarter in Michigan. Once they have the lead, they're just going to put you in a headlock and not let go. So Washington's gonna have to find a way to start fast. And so now I don't like this team playing from behind. I do have some serious line of scrimmage concerns for them. They had some bad preseason injuries as well, like we just talked about. They also lost their tight end in that game. He was carted off. So left tackle out, tight end. I would say if you're carted off, probably unlikely to make an impact in this one. They're going to find like some real magic there with the scheme to try to get some guys open against this Illinois team.
- [15:28]
A
Yeah, Bud, you know, we might have a chance to hit on Michigan a little bit, or at least Michigan State, the quarterback that they're playing. But as I went back to really dig into this one, those turnovers were just back breakers, you know, you. It wasn't even like Michigan brought the hammer and totally like obliterated Washington in that game. Washington just put themselves into a point where to your. To your great words, you said you've got a little bit of a chokehold. Okay, but what about the team on the other side. But Elliot, I've got an idea about what Tom Friedlli might think considering what we saw in the A block or last week or the week before, the week before that. But you does, does Illinois have the goods? Because going into Husky, going into Husky Stadium is a difficult task and being able to come out with the win would be something that I think would rejuvenate this Illinois team for the final stretch of the season. Do you feel confident that Illinois as an underdog can, can be able to go in and pull off the upset?
- [16:22]
C
I, I, I give him an excellent chance to go, go in there and pull the upset. I, I think they're healthier than this Washington team is in looking at this. I think they're both, you know, really well coached team obviously who are like, these are good football teams who are just a bit imperfect. If you look at what happened to Illinois, Indiana's a really good football team. Right. And down the stretch in that game, there were points, I believe, in which Illinois was missing, I think four or five of their starters in the secondary. That's going to be, you know, a really, a bit of an issue in that game. And they're just not quite as good as Indiana is this year. Their other loss to Ohio State, like nobody's really challenged Ohio State this year. That team has just been completely dominant. Probably the only team in the country that has been pretty dominant, at least defensively, in every game that they've played. So, you know, when I take a look at this, I think that unless you can really beat up Illinois along lines of scrimmage or if you can just somehow get all their secondary starters to be out in the game, this is a tough football team to beat. You have a very veteran quarterback and Luke Altmire, maybe their weapons at receiver this year are not quite as good as they were last year, but they spread the ball around decent. I know they want to get back to the run game after seeing Michigan last week. Jordan Marshall, I believe a career high in rushing yards, 133 for him. So I would expect Illinois to probably be pretty effective moving the football here on a Washington defense that hasn't been quite as good, you know, this year as maybe it was two years ago.
- [17:37]
B
Yeah, when I look at this matchup, you know, it's the things that concern me is, you know, the last time Illinois went on the road and played in a more difficult environment against a good team was that Indiana game. And well, they lost by 53 points. And as Bud mentioned, the injuries on the defensive side of the ball had a lot to do in the final margin. But the fact of the matter was Indiana was the better football team in that game and would have smoked them either way. But this is still a team that outside of those Ohio State and Indiana losses has been a good football team. It hasn't been an elite team, but they've beaten everybody else that they've played and they've played well. And this is a Washington team to me that as we've discussed, it's banged up on offense. Defensively, it has struggled. Now getting those players back last week like Caleb Durie in their pass rush, I think help help them and will help them here because if there is one weakness that I do feel like Illinois has, they've been one of the better passing offenses in the country. They are much more of a passing team than they are a rushing team. They're far more effective at it. But Luke Altmire still does take a lot of sacks and this is a situation where if you're on the road in Husky Stadium, which is going to be very loud, if there are any communication issues at the line of scrimmage in the pre snap and maybe you misidentify some blitzes and who's coming much like you did in that game against Indiana, Luke Altmire could find himself in a under a lot of pressure, taking hits, putting themselves behind the chains and this is an offense that I think can survive that. It's just hard to do that consistently when you're on the road facing a pretty good team. So I think that's going to be the key for Illinois. Can they avoid those pre snap mistakes? Can they avoid the false starts to put him in the hole and can they keep Luke Altmire on his feet for him to make the throws? Because when he gets the time, he's been one of the best quarterbacks in the country. It's just when he doesn't, things go a little haywire.
- [19:18]
A
Hank Beatty game. We're gonna get a Hank Beatty game, Tom.
- [19:22]
B
I, I would expect Hank Beatty to have a game, I'd expect Colin Dixon to have a game and hopefully they can get Cleo Valentine going in the run game because he's been coming on for them taking more load share as far as carries go and he's been very effective and I think he's kind of starting to take over that role.
- [19:37]
A
Yeah, it's a very interesting one we did. None of us mentioned Washington in terms of College Football Playoff, but it at least when I view These teams, like Bud was saying earlier, these are very good teams, all occupying somewhat of the similar realm. The similar tier in the Big Ten should be a very fun one out in Seattle. Of course, Illinois back in the top 25. They are trying to defend that status in Husky Stadium. Well, coming up on the other side, we turn our attention to big time on CBS as it is Minnesota at Iowa. We go into the good vibes for both of these teams after strong performances last week, how they match up against each other and that pig. And more nukes back here on the COVID 3 podcast live on CBS Sports Network. And this Saturday, it will be big time on cbs. That's right, renewing one of the best rivalries in the Big Ten. It is Minnesota at Iowa. And you can, of course, watch this on cbs, America's most watched network, the network of stars. You can stream it on Paramount, plus a mountain of entertainment. Now, let's talk about the football before we get to the trophy because these two teams are both riding high right now. Minnesota just, they're really bundled up. Nebraska packed them up and sent them shipping with a good, strong win on last Friday night. Then Iowa follows it up with a close win, getting it done, a little bit of a nail biter, but Kirk Ference ends up not having to pay for it. They beat Penn State. You celebrate a win against Penn State anytime you can. So vibes are great for both of these teams. Let's figure out how they got there. Tom, to your eye, what worked well for Minnesota in the win against Nebraska? How much of it was Minnesota? How much of it was Nebraska, and how do you think that could impact your expectations for this week?
- [21:34]
B
I would go 50, 50. As far as who was to blame for what happened last week or who was to take credit, I think that, you know, Minnesota will start off with the fact that they had nine sacks in the game against Nebraska, which is a very high number. But I would argue Dylan Raiola was responsible for at least half of those sacks. He kind of just ran into the pressure quite a few times and, you know, allowed them to bring home. There were times where Minnesota was rushing three and Raola would just step right into the oncoming defensive end and go down, which is not typically what you want to see. But they did slow down that Nebraska offense overall, coverage wise. There weren't many busts. They were able to get, you know, dominate the game on the line of scrimmage and also be able to limit the explosive plays for Nebraska. And offensively, like it was the same script that we've seen from Minnesota all season long. They are not especially good at anything. They've actually been better throwing the ball than they have been at running it, but they're not explosive in any key area, really. Minnesota's offensive superpower is just the fact that they don't turn the ball over. So it's like they, they don't find themselves being put in spots where their defense has to deal with short fields. They, they win the game. You know, the field position battle, they manage the game and then they hope that they can make enough plays where they finish with more points than you do. In other words, they kind of look like a peak Iowa team from the heyday when the Hawkeyes were winning 10, nine games every single season where they weren't spectacular but they just weren't beating themselves. They were allowing the other team to beat themselves and taking advantage of it. And that's really what the Gophers are going to be trying to do here, to be going on the road to Iowa at Kinnick Stadium. You can't beat yourself. This is an Iowa team that is not good enough offensively probably to pull away from you. So as long as you don't make mistakes and take care of the football, you're going to give yourself a chance to win in the fourth quarter and that's going to be Minnesota's approach.
- [23:22]
C
So I, I love the matchup last week for Minnesota against Nebraska. I bet them obviously on our Cover three Locks podcast, and that's really because I thought Minnesota could do a decent enough job stopping Nebraska's run game and also get to Riola without having to blitz. If you look at it, they had an awesome day in terms of limiting the cornhosters explosive plays and they really, they did a pretty decent job against that Nebraska run game. This is a bit of a different test though, because Nebraska is, I think, one of the worst offensive lines in the Big Ten. Iowa is unquestionably one of the best. So it's like completely reversed, right? Like this is going to be a real challenge for that Nebraska defensive line or sorry for that Minnesota defensive line which has been pushed around at times so far this year. Also, like if you're Minnesota, you have got to find a way to score some points against Iowa. Since 2019, they scored 19, 7, 22, 10, 12 in a win and 14 points against Iowa. So for the most part, defensive coordinator Phil Parker has this PJ Fleck offense figured out pretty much regardless of who's calling the players for Minnesota, as I know they've had A few offensive coordinators in that stretch, so I don't really know how they find a way to score enough. And I do think Iowa should be able to run the football effectively here on this Gopher defense.
- [24:37]
A
Yeah. But I will go ahead and throw this right back to you first, because now I'm saying, All right, what, what is Iowa's plan here? Obviously, Mark Gronowski is going to be a big key of the run game as well as everything else. Do you see from this Iowa offense? One that look, they went and they put up 37 points on Wisconsin and Wisconsin might not be anything close to the caliber of the logo on the side of the helmet, but you still had to go out there and you still still had to score 37 points. They get into the mid-20s against Penn State. A Penn State defense that still has players that are going to be playing on Sundays. What has been working well for the Hawkeyes that you think can translate here?
- [25:15]
C
I think they're starting to learn the quarterback Mark Browski strengths, honestly. Like his legs have been a major weapon. He had that beautiful bootleg last week against Penn State. I think they're just going to run the ball, run the ball some more and continue to run the ball some more and try to stay out of those negative leverage situations. This offensive line for the Hawkeyes is quite good. Minnesota's run defense this year has not been great when they've faced competent rushing attacks. So I would expect Iowa to try to just physically pound them up front and not ask Kranowski to throw the ball 20 or 25 times in this game and we'll see if that can work.
- [25:47]
B
You know, it's funny, like, there was a lot made of Tim Lester coming in as the offensive coordinator last year and we were talking about how now that Brian Ference is finally gone, Tim Lester is going to come in and he's going to modernize this Iowa offense. They're going to use motion, they're going to be throwing the ball, they're going to be doing all of this stuff. And now here we are in year two and they're basically an option offense because Mark Gronowski has been a better runner than a passer. They are running the ball over 60% of the time, even in neutral down situations. This is not a team that is looking to drop back and throw the ball. As Bud was saying, they kind of want to just ground and pound you in the run game. And they've been very effective doing so. Like, they are not an overly explosive offense. They are not going to put up 45 points. The 37 they put up against Wisconsin. Chip, you said it. It doesn't count. Wisconsin is a dead football team. Walk talking. I'm throwing all the results out of from that game out of the window. This is going to be a more difficult test. But from what we have seen from this offense, I think they are going to be capable of doing it and being at home will allow them to do so. Because as Bud mentioned too, this defense has done a very good job against Minnesota because Phil Parker basically faces this offense every single day in practice. He knows pretty well what Minnesota is trying to do. But overall, like we were expressing concerns about the Iowa defense early in the year because they just did not look as good as we were typically used as I'm seeing particularly in the secondary. Well, well, they figured it out in the last four weeks going back to that Indiana game. You could argue nobody's done a better job slowing down the Indiana offense to this point than Iowa did. And from that point on they have been playing very well. They are not giving up explosives. The secondary has looked much better in coverage and I think that as this season goes along, maybe that defense continues to improve and maybe suddenly Iowa is a team we kind of gave up on early in the year who at the end of the season is one of the better teams in the Big Ten. So I, I like them in this matchup. I do think at home with that beautiful bronze big on the line, Iowa's going to have a pretty strong performance and it's going to be a tough test for the Gophers to go in there and get a win.
- [27:45]
A
Let's, let's dig in on that there because this is to your point, these are two teams that are three and one in Big Ten play. You know, we were picking all these other teams that who could end up being the fourth College Football Playoff team, the winner of this game could finish higher than multiple of those teams, at least in terms of the Big Ten standings. To Tom, what's the what if if you were to set sort of a, a win total live line for the Iowa Hawkeyes, you mentioned that you like them in this game right here and are we looking up and this is a 9 and 3 team at the end of the year. What, what is the the Iowa outlook? Because to your point, the beginning of the season, if you told me that this was going to be 9 and 3 by the end, I did not think that that's what the early returns were suggesting. That would be a very remarkable job By Kirk Ferent in just another year of Iowa football, how do you see this season playing out for the Hawkeyes?
- [28:38]
B
I mean, I, I, I'm not going to rule out nine and three because I do think that they win this weekend and I do think that they are a better team than we thought. It's just when you look at the schedule, they've got to play Oregon and USC still, and both of those get, you know, Oregon's coming to Iowa City, they're going on the road for usc. And just traditionally what we have seen from Iowa is when they get in games against teams that are going to force you to actually score points to beat them, they struggle. So it's hard for me to imagine that they're going to beat Oregon, that they're going to go on the road and beat USC. I think 8 and 4 is far more likely of an outcome for this Hawkeyes team, which is a typical Iowa season in the end.
- [29:17]
C
But tell you what though, if, if Iowa had not dropped that early season game to Iowa State, we would have been talking about them in the first segment today because like with Penn State State, you know, falling apart, you got to think Iowa could probably fare okay against Nebraska, just given Nebraska's line of scrimmage limitations this year. And we would be saying, hey, if you can get past Minnesota, all you got to do is get a split hosting Oregon or going at USC, which is certainly not easy. But like 10 and 2 Iowa, you know, would have been in the playoff. That, that loss by three points to Iowa State early in the year, that kind of put a real damper on their playoff hopes. And obviously I don't think any of us really believe that they're going to make the playoff at this point, but if they run the table, they're in, I think like 10 to Iowa, given the difficulty of this schedule, they would be in 9 and 3 is possible. Not probably. I tend to agree with Tom. Eight to four is probably the most likely scenario, but they could certainly finish ranked.
- [30:06]
A
Yeah. And the there's also the matter of, you know, are you going to start to be a thorn in the Big Ten title picture? You know, like, is that going to happen if they were to hand Oregon a loss? Certainly interesting things to follow. PJ Fleck, no doubt taking notes that we have slided him. PJ thank you so much for watching CBS Sports Network. We look forward to hearing from you on the COVID 3 podcast soon. And coming up on the other side, it has been one of the great stories in all of college football UCLA surge after Tim Skipper takes over as interim head coach. Jerry Newheisel is the new offensive coordinator. But are we going to call midnight on Cinderella? Because you got to go play Indiana and that hasn't gone well for anybody. We'll get into all that and more.
- [30:53]
E
It's football season and you gotta keep up with the action. Listen in to Pushing the Pile, part of CBS Sports Podcast Network with Mike Renner, Kyle Long, and now me, JP Acosta for smart analysis of everything between the lines. With four episodes a week, Sunday night recaps, film review, power tiers and weekly previews, you will know ball. Stick with us until one team lists the Lombardi download and follow Pushing the Pile on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Anywhere podcasts are found.
- [31:24]
F
What's up everyone? It's Siya Najad from Fantasy Football Today dfs, a weekly NFL daily fantasy show that's a part of the CBS Sports Podcast Network. If you're looking for NFL game by game previews, which players stock is up or down, and DFS strategies and advice, Mike McClure, Meg Shoup and I have you covered every single week. Download and follow us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and anywhere podcasts are found. Make sure to turn on those notifications so you don't miss a single pick all season long.
- [31:51]
C
Good luck.
- [31:56]
A
Back here on the COVID 3 podcast live on CBS Sports Network. Well, the Indiana Hoosiers, they have put a squash on any kind of coaching rumors. They have locked up Kurt Signetti to a new contract extension. He says he wants to retire a Hoosier. He's happy where he is, so we can at least put that to the side and we can focus on the football. And the football includes a visit from one of the hottest teams in the Big Ten. That's right when you want to talk about some surprising records in the conference standings. I think the UCLA Bruins would be on that top 10 list of some of the more surprising conference standings in the country because the UCLA Bruins are 3 and 1 in Big Ten play after yet another win. So, Tom, here's here's where I want to start with this. Tim Skipper takes over as interim head coach. We've got Jerry Newheisel as the new offensive coordinator. They kind of have that thunderous start. You're wondering if they can maintain it. The Maryland visit last week was maybe a true okay, where do you sit in the Big Ten litmus test? They end up surviving. They end up winning that game by a field goal. What has gone right for ucla? Because at this point, it's not just everybody else messing up at this point. UCLA is doing something to play winning football. What have you seen from the Bruins that has contributed to this strong start to conference play?
- [33:21]
B
Well, I mean I think that the biggest thing is that since the changeover, since the Sean Foster was fired, Tino Sinceri left his offensive coordinator and this interim staff came in with Jerry Neuheisel running the offense, they've leaned more into Nico Ayama Leova's strengths as a quarterback. They've used him more in the run game which has helped their run game overall because they really weren't able to run the ball very effectively beforehand. So that has helped. But I also think timing has helped quite a bit too because they were playing Penn State. The week after Penn State suffered, you know, the devastating loss to Oregon in double overtime. The week after that they got Michigan State, who is one of the worst teams in the Big Ten, not named Wisconsin this year. So they go on the road and they take care squad and now last week at home against Maryland they won. But I'm not going to say that they played well. I, I, I would say that the last week was their worst performance as an offense since the changeover. They turned the ball over three times. They did not look very good. They weren't really able to protect Nico as well as they had been. And to me I think that's a huge question mark going into this game because of the fact of the matter is if the offense that showed up last week against Maryland is the same offense that shows up this week against Indiana, they're going to lose by like a hundred points because this is an Indiana team that does not take prisoners. They are not here to let you feel good about yourself. In the end, if they get a chance to absolutely smother you, they will do so. And I am worried about some of the protection issues I have seen with this team now going up against Indiana because Nico has struggled under pressure his entire career. He's had to scramble. And this is an Indiana team that I think will be able to overwhelm this UCLA offensive line with their front seven to kind of confuse Nico before the snap and put pressure on him and force turnover. So I don't you, you mentioned before the break has, has the Cinderella story come to an end? I feel like it started coming to an end last week and Indiana might, might slam that book shut on Saturday.
- [35:18]
C
Yeah, let, let, let's not take away from the incredible turnaround that we've seen from ucla. They have done a great job playing The Nico strengths, a lot of the skill guys are actually healthier now, which helps. I think we knew that was a team that maybe could put it together with all those skill guys. They had some receiver injuries earlier in the year and they have a dangerous receiving core now that they're healthy. But I agree with Tom. I mean, if you look at this, they caught Penn State like emotionally flat as can be. Obviously the Penn State fired James Franklin, you know, shortly thereafter that UCLA upset win over Penn State and they go and they pound Michigan State. But guys, Michigan State is averaging allowing more than 40 points against Power Four teams this year.
- [35:55]
A
That.
- [35:55]
C
That is not really. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. So I'm a little skeptical that they're going to be able to go in and score in the 30s against Indiana. And I think if you're in Indiana, you say, hey, we or six touchdowns on these guys rolling out of bed just playing our game. Can our defense scheme up a couple protection busts to get Nico sacked to get him off schedule? Maybe he'll throw us a cookie or two. I, I think as long as Indiana comes and plays its game, it should win by margin here. But look, Nico is capable of special throws and special plays. So I think if you're Indiana, like, you're not uneasy about this, but in the back of your mind, like, all right, we, we do have to play well probably if we want to go ahead and win and press the committee. And if you're Indiana, it. It's hammered down like there is a real chance even if Indiana does not win the Big Ten, that it could get a buy in the playoff. Like the Big Ten is absolutely set up potentially to have two teams getting buys in the college ball playoff. And so if you're Indiana, you got to keep hammering teams to impress the committee.
- [36:50]
A
Yeah, rolling out of bed. In operative fact, as this is a body clock special. UCLA playing at 9am Pacific Time in Bloomington where they will be rip roaring and ready to go. But let's dig into the Indiana part of this, bud, because there's a lot of different ways to say Indiana is awesome. It is their, their margin. It is Fernando Mendoza, his, his accuracy, his production. What, what are the things that are starting to, you know, give you that, give you that feel that this is a Hoosiers team that can really continue to push on what has been an incredible start to the season.
- [37:29]
C
So I think if you look at where they're better than last year, last year they really just never beat themselves and they would make opportunistic plays. This year, they Go out and beat people. And I think, I think it's a clearly better team that they seem to have hit on some of the offensive line transfers. Mendoza is like a legitimate first round prospect at quarterback and that's a huge upgrade in terms of passing from what they had last season. Surat is a really nice receiver. Like, that's a guy that's going to get drafted. And Cooper is a pretty darn good number two for a top level college football team. So when you have a guy in Mendoza who has the arm to push the ball over the field, he gets rid of it pretty quickly. He knows where to go with it. And you have an Indiana defense that plays extremely hard. They have some like, I think they have some NFL talents. They also have some like really nice college style talents that are mixed in. They understand what they're doing defensively within their scheme. I think they, they create turnovers, honestly in some ways. I know there's like a big luck element to turnovers, but they do scheme it up pretty well. Well, and they really bust your protections. I mean, look what they did to Oregon. Some of that was them winning up front. Some of that was just kind of figuring out Oregon's protection schemes and figure out where the weak points are and hidden them.
- [38:32]
B
Yeah, I, I think one of the bigger differences in this year's Indiana team is that like, if, if we go back to last year, like Kurt Signetti has always been, you know, a very boisterous and bravado, kind of confident outward personality. Since he took the job, anytime he's had a chance to talk about how great his team is or what they're going to do, he has not been shy about sharing it. It's just we saw last year when Indiana would go up against a better team. That bravado kind of, you know, shrunk away during the game. As far as the game plan, Indiana took a more conservative approach in those games because the coaching staff understood that along the lines of scrimmage, we're not Ohio State, we're not Notre Dame. We have to play a different style against these teams if we're going to win that. Those games this year, they haven't had that same approach. They, they welcomed a top 10 Illinois team into town and they were aggressive right from the start. They're like, we can beat these guys, we can beat them up. Then they go on the road against Oregon and there was no conservative approach in that game either. They're on the road in Austin Stadium, one of the most difficult places for anybody to play against one of the best teams in the country and they stepped in there like we're the better team in this building from the very start and played to that level. So I think just the confidence level from the coaching staff tells you everything you need to know about how the talent level on this roster has shifted from last year, particularly along the lines of scrimmage and at the quarterback position because Curtis Rourke was a perfectly good Jag plus in Cover 3 nomenclature for the Hoosiers last year. Fernando Mendoza is an NFL quarterback and he's playing like an NFL quarterback on a team that is more talented. And what you're seeing is the results. This team is suddenly number two in the country and they, like Bud said, whether they win the Big Ten or not, they are very much in line for a first round buy in the playoff. And that's huge.
- [40:17]
A
Yeah, very important for fans to remember we are about to hit College Football Playoff Bracket Projection Season College Football Playoff Bracketology College Football Playoff Bracket Predictions you know, throw it in there for the SEO out there. I this year is going to be really, really fascinating to see what they do. Because last year it was easy. The selection committee knew that the four buys were reserved for the conference champions. But when you looked at the final rankings, those four teams, Bud, to your point, were the participants in the SEC championship game and in the Big Ten championship game. Making the conference championship game is going to be the best way to set yourself up for the buy. Because this year, unlike last year, it doesn't matter about whether you're a conference champion or a conference runner up or heck, maybe you didn't even make the conference title game. If the selection committee decides that you are a top four team in their final rankings on that selection Sunday, well then you are going to get a pass right into the quarterfinals, avoiding that first round of on campus games. Before we get out of here, let's just, let's play the game. Tom, what is your prediction for Indiana's record on the day of the Big Ten Championship?
- [41:39]
C
12.
- [41:39]
B
No, I just, I don't. I think they're the better team every single week. Yeah, they've got some difficult spots left on that schedule, you know, but the bigger problem is that three of their final four games are on the road. But you look at the teams that they're playing and it's like, I'm not scared of Maryland. I'm definitely not scared of Penn State right now. And Wisconsin and Purdue are two of the worst teams in the Big Ten. So when you look at them, when they get to Indianapolis if they're not 12, zero, something went wrong along the lines and maybe, you know, that could be an impact for them in Indianapolis against Ohio State or maybe Oregon if they're there. But I mean, this is a really good team and if they play to their level every single week, they're not going to lose.
- [42:20]
C
I think 12 and oh as well. If you look at this like the hay's kind of in the barn, honestly, like, like that, that doesn't mean like these games aren't losable. These are power four teams. If you don't show up and the other team gives a home run effort, you could lose. But at the same time, guys like, like Illinois, Oregon, Iowa, that was like their real tough back to back to back stretch and they ran it. So now like they get to get healthy, they get to work on stuff down the stretch. You know, if you're Ohio State in Indiana or Indiana goes and does this like, all right, we still feel good. But man, those guys may not have to show a damn thing down in the final six games of the year. Now there's probably gonna be a game which they do have to break out some stuff obviously in which they're challenged and they. It's college football. That's how it works. But, but man, like they have been a team under Kirk Senetti that really takes care of business extremely well. So yeah, I'm, I'm, I think 12.
- [43:09]
A
No. Kurt Signetti, of course, a member of Nick Saban's first staff at Alabama for the first couple of years, he would be telling his team right now not to take that rat poison from the COVID 3 podcast, which has called them at 12 and oh, on what, October 21st, we're saying wrap it up, it's going to be 12 and oh, now what happens after that we will see. Well, coming up on the other side, every single week, we like to leave you with a player to watch in the Big Ten. We'll give you our players to watch for week nine and more next back here on the COVID 3 podcast live on CBS Sports Network. One of our favorite things to do is to wrap each and every Tuesday hour with you with a player to watch in the Big Ten, bud. Elliot, where are we going?
- [43:57]
C
We're going to Michigan State with Aiden Childs. Like, Child's a guy with big time ability at quarterback. And I think that he is playing the rest of the season for a payday. Whether that's still with Michigan State or whether if he really plays well, he could be one of the hottest names in the transfer market this offseason. If he wanted to put his name in again, like this guy has some ability. He had some really nice flashes against Indiana. Obviously didn't win that ball game. He's had some big time games. The one against Boston College was good. He's also had some real low lights. So I want to see if he can start putting together a little more consistently and really show what he's got to the nation.
- [44:27]
B
I'm here to make a bold prediction about Iowa quarterback Mark Gronowski, and that bold prediction is he's going to throw a touchdown. Now the reason that's a bold prediction is because Mark Gronowski has not thrown a touchdown pass in Big Ten play. His last touchdown Pass was on September 13th in Iowa's win over UMass. Pass instead. We talked about it earlier in the show. Iowa is an option offense now and Mark Gronowski is an option quarterback because he has rushed for seven touchdowns in Big Ten play. He just hasn't thrown for one. But this week I think he breaks through.
- [45:02]
A
Boys, don't look now but the Northwestern Wildcats are one win away from bowl eligibility. That's right, Northwesterns on the road at Nebraska. They're both 5 and 2 winner is bowl eligible. And a huge bit of news for the Wildcats is they are expecting to get starting running back Caleb Komalafe back.
- [45:22]
B
Now.
- [45:22]
A
He's been huge. Cam Porter goes down with an injury in Week two and this guy steps up. His teammates call him the Beast and that is for good reason. You see it right here. He's rocked up, he runs hard and I think that this is going to be a huge part going up against a Nebraska defense that just allowed Minnesota's Darius Taylor to go for 126. 6. If Northwestern is going to go into Lincoln and come out with the win and bowl eligibility, they're going to need their running back Caleb Komalafe to get it done. Well, if you liked what you saw, if you liked what you heard, come and join us on the COVID 3 podcast. We are live on YouTube@YouTube.com cover3 every Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, then on Saturday nights. Make sure that you subscribe so that you can go and get the notifications anytime. We are live because it's emergency podcast season. Scan that QR code and download and follow the COVID three podcasts wherever you get your podcasts.
- [46:31]
C
CBS Wednesdays I run to the chaos.
- [46:34]
F
And Survivor is chaos.
- [46:36]
A
As a mother of a four year old, this is vacation.
- [46:40]
C
This season they're going back home. It's trial by the elephant.
- [46:44]
D
Surprise.
- [46:45]
C
I'm on Survivor.
- [46:47]
A
That's how you do it.
- [46:49]
C
Survivor feels like a culmination of my entire life.
- [46:51]
A
Everything has led to this moment.
- [46:54]
C
Who will have what it takes? Survivor New CBS, Wednesdays at 8.7central and streaming on Paramount.
- [47:00]
A
Plus.