Cover 3 College Football Podcast

Episode: "Big Ten Show: Paths To The College Football Playoff"

Date: September 9, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott

Episode Overview

This episode takes a “big picture” approach to the Big Ten Conference’s potential paths to the expanded College Football Playoff (CFP). Instead of zeroing in on week-to-week matchups, the crew analyzes playoff chances and necessary improvements for each top program. The discussion focuses on Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, and gives quick looks at USC and Washington as emerging contenders. There's extensive debate about team strengths, weaknesses, schedule challenges, and which programs are best positioned for a CFP run.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Clear Big Ten Playoff Contenders

(Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon)

Ohio State: Title Defense and Reloaded Defense

• Key Strengths:
  • Defense appears even better than expected, led by new DC Matt Patricia; Caleb Downs is a game-changer.
  • Despite losing veteran defensive talent, “the replacements were going to be pretty good… so far, we are seeing that they are pretty good” (Tom, 03:49).
  • Secondary is “veteran, faster, athletic and smart,” able to disguise numerous coverage schemes (Bud, 05:35).
  • Young talent (Julian Sayin at QB, Jeremiah Smith at WR) is progressing; offense deems “incomplete grade” for now but with high ceiling.
• Potential Concerns:
  • Inexperience at key roles, especially on offense.
  • Potential difficulties defending true dual-threat/mobile QBs, although the Big Ten schedule may limit exposure until the playoff.

"I don’t think there’s any major flaws where you’re like, they can’t repeat this year. ... A lot of it has to do with a young quarterback and how his progress continues to develop."
— Danny (03:21)

• Key Games:
  • Only major road threats: Illinois, Washington.
  • Most of the schedule favors Buckeyes until CFP.

Penn State: Stable, High-Ceiling, But Unproven

• Key Strengths:
  • Defense remains elite, with breakout pass rusher Chaz Wallace.
  • Roster continuity and veterans lead to high expectations.
• Concerns:
  • Passing game, led by Drew Allar, is still building chemistry with new wide receivers—"a little bit bumpy versus FIU" (Danny, 09:11).
  • Unclear if the Nittany Lions can simply “flip the switch” for tougher opponents given slow starts and lack of urgency against low-tier competition.

"What has Penn State done to earn our benefit of the doubt that it can just flip the switch when it needs to? ... This is a team that should probably be stepping its foot on the gas a little harder."
— Tom (10:25)

Oregon: Maybe the Most Impressive So Far

• Key Strengths:
  • Two dominant wins (Montana State, Oklahoma State); arguably most impressive Big Ten team so far.
  • Significant upgrades across offense, defense, and special teams.
• Concerns:
  • Haven't been truly tested on the road; first tough trip to an environment like Penn State's “whiteout” awaits.

"If you put them on a neutral field right now, I’m probably taking the Ducks."
— Tom (11:38)

Penn State-Oregon early line: Penn State favored by 4.5, but panelists see argument for either side given Oregon’s recent performances.

2. The Next Tier: Playoff Hopefuls

(Illinois, Indiana)

Illinois: Emerging Resume, Veteran Team

• Strengths:
  • Best non-Big Three win so far: decisive win at Duke.
  • Passing offense is explosive and defense, especially D-line, is stout.
  • Veteran team, well-coached, added valuable transfers.
• Concerns:
  • Run game has been sluggish, possibly tied to O-line injuries.
  • Weakness at linebacker.
• Schedule Factors:
  • Faces both Ohio State and USC, but stronger non-conference win (Duke) could be a key tiebreaker.

"If Ohio State’s win over Texas is the most impressive win in the Big Ten, ... Illinois’s win over Duke is the second most impressive one."
— Tom (16:47)

Indiana: Incomplete Grade, Soft Early Schedule

• Strengths:
  • “Playing with a lot of confidence,” improved at quarterback with Fernando Mendoza.
• Concerns:
  • Weak non-conference opponents; not yet tested.
  • Secondary and O-line are question marks.
• Upcoming Key Game:
  • September 20th vs. Illinois is deemed a potential “play-in” for the conference’s fourth playoff slot.

"How do we know how good they are? They haven’t played anybody… I really don’t know." — Danny (21:54)

3. Rebuilding Blue Bloods: Michigan & Nebraska

Michigan: Reset Year with Youth at Key Spots

• Strengths:
  • Bryce Underwood at QB and Justice Haynes at RB are promising young talent.
  • Defense is “still really good.”
• Weaknesses:
  • “Pretty clear they do not” have enough weapons at WR (Bud, 26:51).
  • Offensive line is not at prior championship level.
• Schedule Pressure:
  • Already 1 loss (at Oklahoma); challenging road foes still remain (Ohio State, USC, Nebraska, Michigan State, etc.).
• Panel Outlook:
  • 9–3 finish most likely; outside shot at 10–2/playoff if they improve dramatically.

"I think the playoff is still there, but I just don’t think it’s likely. I’m kind of selling a little bit on Michigan…"
— Tom (29:51)

Nebraska: Culture Shift, Unknown Ceiling

• Strengths:
  • Team is rallying around Matt Rhule; defense shows promise, especially in run defense.
  • Dylan Raiola developing at quarterback but still streaky.
• Concerns:
  • Defensive front is thin; offense struggles with protection and run consistency.
  • Need to prove it against better teams—early schedule has provided few answers.
  • September 20 vs. Michigan will be a big litmus test.

"This is a team to me, that still remains the mystery. ... It might not be until that Michigan game where we find out if Nebraska is legit or not."
— Tom (34:32)

4. The “Dark Horse” Watch: USC & Washington

USC: Weapons Galore, Resume Needs Work

• Strengths:
  • Elite receiver room (“I would take this receiver room over everyone in the country except for the guys in Columbus” — Bud, 41:14).
  • Offense scoring at will; Jaden Mava at QB looks improved; running back Wayman Jordan emerging.
  • Defense more sound (so far) and tackling better.
• Concerns:
  • Blowing out weak teams; stats somewhat inflated by garbage time scoring.
  • Needs to prove itself vs. tougher Big Ten competition, especially on the road (first major test: at Purdue).
• Outlook:
  • “Most likely team to make the playoff… if they play to their talent level.” (Bud, 41:14)

Washington: Explosive Offense, D-Line Question

• Strengths:
  • Demond Williams at QB gives them true dual-threat.
  • RB Jonah Coleman is off to a Heisman-caliber start (288 yards, 7 TD in two games).
• Concerns:
  • Defensive line depth against top Big Ten offenses.
• Key Games:
  • Upcoming: Ohio State (at home), Illinois, at Michigan.
  • “Wait-and-see team”—Ohio State will be the first real litmus test.

Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Ohio State’s Defense:

  “Patricia had a field day with Arch Manning, just showing him all these different looks and that kid's head was spinning.”
  — Bud (05:35)

• On Illinois Being Battle-Tested:

  “At least Illinois was road-tested against a better opponent. ... I just feel a little bit more confidence in Illinois because I’ve seen them tested more.”
  — Danny (21:54)

• On Michigan’s Ceiling:

  “If they do get there, I see them probably losing badly in their first round game because they’re likely not going to be a home team in that spot… They’ll get in because of their name.”
  — Tom (29:51)

• On USC’s Receiver Talent:

  “But these outside receivers, I think I would take this receiver room over everyone in the country except for the guys in Columbus.”
  — Bud (41:14)

• On Nebraska’s Mystery Status:

  “I feel like I don’t know anything really about Nebraska so far this season because … who knows? Cincinnati's offense might stink as the season goes along.”
  — Tom (34:32)

• On Penn State and Oregon’s Matchup:

  “I was kind of curious to see what the line was ... The early line now on FanDuel is four and a half for Penn State’s a four and a half point favorite. If you gave me that line right now, I might take Oregon.”
  — Danny (09:11)

Key Segment Timestamps

• Ohio State’s Path & Evaluation: 01:00 – 07:58
• Penn State vs. Oregon as No. 2/3: 07:58 – 12:03
• Illinois and Indiana as Playoff Sleepers: 13:57 – 24:58
• Michigan’s Transition Year, Nebraska Analysis: 26:51 – 36:59
• USC’s Playoff Potential, Dark Horse Status: 38:29 – 41:50
• Washington’s Schedule, Key Tests: 42:33 – 44:02
• Players To Watch (Big Ten): 44:39 – 45:42

Players to Watch (Week 3)

• USC RB Wayman Jordan:
  • “Running back Wayman Jordan looks to be a stud for the Trojans. I want to see if he can keep it rolling.” (Bud, 44:39)
• USC QB Jaden Mava:
  • "Six touchdowns, zero interceptions, 74% of his passes. Can he keep it rolling this weekend? Big Ten competition." (Danny, 44:53)
• Washington RB Jonah Coleman:
  • “Through two games has rushed for 288 yards and seven touchdowns. ... kind of putting together what could be a Heisman campaign.” (Tom, 45:13)
• USC WR Makai Lemon:
  • “How about the guy who’s making spectacular catch after spectacular catch?” (Chip, 45:42)

Tone & Style

The tone is lively, informed, and occasionally irreverent, with a blend of advanced analytics and old-school football talk. The hosts riff off one another’s analysis, blend in running jokes (like their "Luke Altmeyer podcast" status), and maintain a fast-moving, high-energy style.

Final Thoughts

The Big Ten playoff race, while still seemingly top-heavy with Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon, has intrigue in the battle for the fourth—and even fifth—spot, particularly with Illinois and Indiana in the conversation. Blue bloods Michigan and Nebraska are wild cards, both facing unique growing pains. USC emerges as a possible narrative disruptor if their gaudy performances translate against serious competition. The next few weeks, especially key head-to-heads like Penn State–Oregon and Illinois–Indiana, will define the true order and playoff viability of these contenders.

For fans, this episode provides a comprehensive, up-to-the-minute snapshot of the Big Ten's playoff landscape as conference play gets underway.