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Cover 3 College Football
Big Ten Show: Paths To The College Football Playoff | Cover 3 Podcast
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Foreign welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fenelli, that's Bud Elliott, that's Danny Cannell. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you live on CBS Sports Network. Fired up to look ahead at the Big Ten. Now, we're gonna do something a little bit different this week because if you've glanced at the Big Ten schedule for week three, there are a lot of games where Big Ten teams are are heavily favored. So we want to go a little less micro, a little more macro. Today's task, among other things, is we are looking at the path to the College Football Playoff. Big Ten path to the playoff. We're going to be looking at a large collection of teams who through two weeks still do have a path to the College Football Playoff, what it's going to take to get there, and what it's going to take the Big Ten as a conference to match last year's 1, 2, 3, 4 College Football Playoff bids. So, gentlemen, we're going to start with the ones that make the most sense. So we've got a group that I would say is a a top three that we all agreed upon coming into the season. That would be Ohio State, that would be Penn State, and that would be the Oregon Ducks. Now, before we get to Penn State and Oregon, we've got to give the Buckeyes a little bit of shine. Danny, we what have you learned from the Buckeyes so far? And is there anything that concerns you about their ability to make it to the cfp? No.
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C
I mean, they clearly have the pieces to get there. But I think for Ohio State, the question is, can you go back to back? Like, I think that's the bar that they set for themselves because they're an elite, you know, roster and they have an elite coaching staff. So I think the biggest question marks I feel like are getting answered along the way. I mean, how do you not feel just as good or better about the job that Matt Patricia has done as a defensive play caller with a job he did against Arch Manning, some of the schemes that he was throwing out there? I think the defense has probably been surprisingly better than I thought they might be early. As with the new defense in place, the amount of talent that they lost off of that team, Caleb Downs has lived up to his end of the bargain of being probably the best defensive player in the country. And then the offense, I think, is still a work in progress. Like, I think this is very much an incomplete grade for me, but. But I don't think there's been anything alarming other than Jeremiah Smith, a couple drops in that game against Texas. But, like, I'm not worried about him. And I think Julian saying they finally did open up the playbook a little bit for him, let him throw some touchdown passes to kind of get his confidence up. So I think Ohio State is exactly where they need to be on their road to repeating. Like, I don't think there's any major flaws where you're like, they can't repeat this year. I think a lot of it has to do with a young quarterback and how his progress continues to develop.
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D
I think another factor we have to consider here is, like, if you look at that schedule that we just put on the screen outside of that road trip to Illinois, based on what you've seen from everybody else, that Ohio State's going to be playing in the regular season, like, who's really terrifying you as far as Ohio State is concerned? Like, what we've seen through two weeks, there was the opener against Texas, and then there was this week's game against Grambling, which we probably shouldn't take much of anything out of. But the one takeaway for me from the Buckeyes to this point has been that defense. They shut Texas down, held him to seven points, and then they had the shutout against Grambling. And I think that has been one of the more elite units in the country so far from what we've seen. And that was also a question mark coming into the season, because while Caleb Downs was back, for the most part, the defense we saw win the national title last year was a veteran unit filled with 4th and some 5th year players who are now moved on and they've moved out of the NFL. So we're seeing a lot of new, more inexperienced guys replacing them in key roles. But as we've known all along the way that Ohio State recruits odds were that the replacements were going to be pretty good even if they were inexperienced. And so far we are seeing that they are pretty good. And that defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has kind of just walked right in and taken over what Jim Knowles was doing and kept things humming at the same pace that they were last year. So at a minimum, you feel like even if the offense still needs more time to gel and still looks a little too much like what we saw against Texas, which might be the best defense they face all year, maybe we should, you know, not put too much concern there. But if it does take time to kind of gel and figure things out on off, the defense is so good that they're going to be afforded that time that they will be able to figure things out. Well, like this week they're playing Ohio. There is that road trip to Washington, who we'll talk about later in the show. But I'm not that concerned about Ohio State facing the Huskies right now.
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Honestly, Tom, that was the point I was going to make. I think I would add two things. One, their ability to play so many different coverage schemes in the back end is not normal for the college level. Everybody in that secondary is really veteran. They were all four and five stars. They've all hit like they're faster, athletic and they are smart, man. Patricia had a field day with Arch Manning, just showing him all these different looks and that kid's head was spinning. The other thing I would add is there are two words that Ryan Day would not say at media day, but he was dancing all around it and it's load management, right? That team last year, they had their eyes on the prize and they did not show a lot of their cards during the season and it bit them twice, right? Like they lost two regular season games, they didn't need luck to get in the playoff. But they, you know, like they, they were kind of skirting by for a little bit and then come the playoffs like, hey, watch this. The death Star is ready to go. I think that this year, like you said with the schedule, they're also in that position. Great point on the young defensive lineman emerging. Like if they have studs up front, this is a scary defense for the Buckeyes.
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Yeah, I agree with you one thing, but go Ahead.
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Danny, I was gonna say, because I totally agree with you some of the secondary stuff, and I have a question for you guys, because I think the one thing that would be a problem for all those secondary coverages when you're disguising them is a running quarterback, and they don't really face that many, except for Demon Williams at Washington, who we'll see how he develops. Can he beat you with his arm and his legs? I think remains to be seen. But, like, how many mobile quarterbacks do they see? That could really present a lot of problems for him. Maybe Bryce Underwood develops, but he's still very young and he's a different type of runner that I think is more of the power type runner from the quarterback position. So I think they might have to deal with that more once they get to the playoffs. But I just thought that was something to note of that defense. You know, when you're talking about the secondary, they're going to confuse a lot of quarterbacks. But if you confuse a guy who can run it when he's confused, I think that's the only thing that could provide some problems for them.
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And, Danny, not to go too long on Ohio State here, but think about the playoffs, right? Your top SEC teams you're going to face. Stockton is not a great runner for Georgia. Nuss Meyer is an absolute statue. You've already faced. Arch Mattier certainly, if you saw it, could give you some problems with his legs. But, like, Sonny Styles can go. And if y' all have not watched. I know we have. But like, for the audience at home, if you have not watched Arville Reese, this dude is like, he's kind of like what everybody thinks Harold Perkins is, and he's 6 4, 250 and is a missile off the edge. I think they're going to be just fine.
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Great point, bud. First word do you hear first? Because at the beginning of the season, we saw a Penn State or Ohio State, and then we were given Oregon the respect of including them in that Big Three at the top of the Big Ten. Now that Ohio State, of course, has looked so impressive, they've answered all the questions about the talent lost and the coaching changes that have been made in the offseason. Now it's become a Penn State or Oregon situation, and Oregon's made quite a statement. So just sort of a who you got. How do you see these teams, Penn State and Oregon? How would you look at those two as the biggest challengers to Ohio State at the top of the conference?
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I think you could really argue either case Here. I'm still going to stick with Penn State for now because I've seen them in more difficult games with the current roster that they have. To me, Oregon has kind of risen up to meet where Penn State is. I think Penn State is still really good. They have a lot of answers now on defense. They have a freshman. The Chaz kid is really, he's something off the edge guys. And we talked about that in our camp buzz session on Cover 3 podcast over the summer for our die hard listeners. You we talked to our guys at Lions 24 7. They said, hey, there's two kids on this defense that are going to like pull the red shirts early. And Chaz has been a revelation for Penn State. Off the edge too.
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He definitely has. I so I'm torn because I was. I mean, I picked Penn State to win the national championship and I'm not going to change my pick, but I definitely think that Oregon game gets that more interesting. But I'm with you. You know, you're talking about load management with Ohio State. I wonder if Penn State is sort of still kind of just no sense of urgency because they don't have to have it against three weaker opponents to start the season, but they're getting right at the right time. I was kind of curious to see what the line was was between Penn State and Oregon when they do square off. The early line now on FanDuel is four and a half for Penn State's a four and a half point favorite. If you gave me that line right now, I might take Oregon. But again, I feel like some of this is recency bias. We just saw Oregon look so good. We haven't seen Dante Moore on the road a problem. It's been problematic for young quarterbacks to play in hostile environments early. It's going to be a whiteout. It's going to be absolutely insane. But I have. I'm not ready to jump off the Penn State bandwagon just yet. But I do think Drew Aller also is somebody who I thought would start out of the gates and just look clean, crisp and sharp, a little bit bumpy versus fiu. I think he's still developing some continuity with those three new wide receivers. But again, like I said, I'm not that worried about Penn State just yet.
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I'm not worried about Penn State, but I did release my latest power ratings on CBSSports.com today if you want to go read them. And Oregon has climbed number two in the country in my power ratings, which also makes them number two in the big ten. And really the primary factor behind it is of the teams that we've watched this year, you can argue nobody's been more impressive as far as performance throughout their two games than the Oregon Ducks have. They blew out Montana State in the opener, and we all saw what they did to Oklahom last Saturday in Austin, beating him 69 to 3. And you can look at Montana State and Oklahoma State and say, well, they're not prime premier opponents, but look at who Penn State's played. I would argue both of Oregon's opponents this year are better than Nevada and Florida International, who Penn State's been kind of going through the motions against. And while I will give you guys both the idea that Penn State does certainly look to be in that load management, let's just get through this and get ready for Oregon mode right now. What has Penn State done to earn our benefit of the doubt that it can just flip the switch when it needs to? Because Penn State time and time again has fallen short in those premier matchups against teams that are on the same level. So there's a part of me that understands why Penn State's doing it, but there's another part of me that's not sure Penn State should be doing it. I feel like this is a team that should probably stepping its foot on the gas a little harder, getting ready for what's going to be a very difficult opponent in a couple weeks. So right now I've got Oregon as the number two team in the Big Ten. That doesn't mean I think they're going to go on the road to beat Penn State because, Danny, as you mentioned, it's still Dante Moore in a road start for the first time this season and the first time in two years. So that's going to be difficult because it's going to be an insane environment. But if you put them on a neutral field right now, I'm probably taking the Ducks.
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We wondered what the turnover would look like at Oregon the same way that we wondered what the turnover would look like at Ohio State. It's why we, we were more confident in Penn State because of all the knowns. And like you mentioned, Tom, we just, we do have to take it into consideration, but we also have to look at the efficiency here. That was 69 points before the end of the third quarter. They were scoring on offense, they were scoring on defense, they were dominating on special teams. You know that Montana State team was the national runner up at the FCS level. 15 wins a year ago. Oregon's upgrade has been significant. And like Ohio State, they've answered a lot of questions right now. Neutral field, flip a coin. I think I might lean ducks based on recency bias. But like you mentioned, Tom, picking the game in terms of what's going to happen in Happy Valley, something that we'll do right here on CBS Sports Network in a couple of weeks, that will be all the factors into consideration. All right, so those are the top three. Pretty simple path to the playoff. Like don't fumble the ball. Just continue to stay on track, continue to play to your expectations. And these are teams in Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon that should be able to take care of business based on their talent level, schedule and more factors. But what about that fourth team? What about maybe even the Big Ten getting a fourth and a fifth team? We've got a large group of contenders. We will continue with our Big Ten path to the playoff and more does.
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Yeah, I think if you've watched them through two games, they have not been perfect. You mentioned that they got off to the slow start on the road at Duke, where they had a 146 lead and kind of let go of the rope for a bit late in the first half to allow Duke to move down and make it a 14 to 13 game at halftime. But they fixed the mistakes that came out in the second half and they absolutely just blew the doors off of the Blue Devils. And I think the one concern I have about this team right now offensively is their run game really has not been very, you know, what you would expect considering what they have personnel wise, what they have returning on their offensive line. They've struggled to move the ball between the tackles. They've had to, like scheme some stuff to get lanes on the outside to really get any kind of explosive movement in the run game. But the passing attack has been very strong. It's not, you know, Luke Altmire's not dropping back to throw 45 times per game, but they are hitting explosives routinely through the air, which is helping them move the chains. Defensively, the defensive line has looked very stout. It looks better, I think, than the unit we saw last year. Gabe Akis already has three sacks and he's forced two fumbles on those sacks already through two games. The secondary has looked very strong. The linebackers, I think, are the weak spot of that unit. But more important than anything is they went on the road and they beat that Duke team. So as of right now, like, if Ohio State's win over Texas is the most impressive win in the Big Ten right now, I think the argument that Illinois's win over Duke is the second most impressive one holds weight. And when you're in that rush or that race to be the fourth best team, to be the team that is in the playoff consideration, that's going to be a big win because this is a Duke team that could still end up winning eight or nine games in the regular season. So that's going to look good on your resume. And they're also, it's gotten them into the top 10 in the AP poll this week. And gentlemen, the last time Illinois was ranked in the top 10 of the AP poll, I was living at the corner of 4th and White in Champagne. Illinois, as Kurt Kittner, was leading the Illinois to a Sugar bowl, which we won't discuss what happened when they got to the Sugar Bowl? But they got there.
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E
Was that, that LSU game?
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D
I don't remember.
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Okay, all right. Yeah, we won't. We won't discuss it. Illinois is just, they're so well coached. They're a veteran football team. They know what they're doing. They brought a lot of guys back. They added some key pieces. They appear to have hit on those key pieces that they added, as Tom mentioned on the defensive line, Thompson from Wisconsin has been. I think they got their money's worth with him. And that exactly what you want, like receiver Beatty has emerged for them. I don't know if that's like a true number one, but at least he's played fairly well. Like, the one question I would have so far is related to Tom's point with the offensive line for the Illini. But I think given that we know a lot of these guys have played at a high level before and we knew they had some injury concerns with those guys coming out of fall camp, it may just be a question of health if Melvin Priestley, the right tackle, if he gets back, or, sorry, the tackle, if he gets back to full health. You know, I think Cruz was kind of dinged as well as those guys kind of round into form. This looks like a very good football team.
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I agree.
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I think they're a really good football team. I think I told you guys this off season I thought the Sept. 20 matchup against Indiana could be a play in game for the College Football Playoff and I still feel like it could be. And I would say I feel better about Illinois especially considering that win that they got against Duke. Now you do have to go be Duke's number one fan as they're an underdog against Tulane this weekend because you'd love to have Duke go ahead and get those eight wins that you're talking about. And they do have a common opponent, Illinois and Indiana do against usc who I know we're going to talk later in the show but I just think if they're both 10 and 2 regardless of who wins that game and I do think the head to head you would have to honor but again I'm starting to like Illinois a little bit better. I do think that's one of those non conference wins that could help boost your resume where if you're sitting there at 10 and two at the end of the season with a non conference win against a Duke team, at least It's a Power 4 opponent that was on the road that you did dominate. Like again I, you you mentioned kind of, you know, early in the game it was closer. At the end of the season they're going to go look at the final score the committee is and they'll see, wow, that was an impressive win. I think that helps Illinois too. And of course we're Luke Altmeyer podcast so I do believe he's picked up right where he left off. I think that helps in a game like that's a little bit closer. It's on the road. I think he bought brought that calm when you're not able to run the football as much as you thought you would have been like you would have liked to. But I still think this Illinois team's absolutely in that conversation for that fourth best Big Ten team.
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Danny, how dare you suggest that the College Football Playoff selection committee not be aware of the context of a noon slate September 6 showdown between Illinois and Duke that that maybe just maybe that that wasn't quite on the top of their radar. Hey, but you mentioned something that jumps out to me because it sounds like, you know, while you are feeling a little better about Illinois, there might be some cause for concern about the Indiana Hoosiers who are trying to make a return to the College Football Playoff after that incredible season one year ago. What have you seen from Kurt Signetti? Obviously we've got a change over at quarterback with Fernando Mendoza. Taken over a lot of new transfers, some players that are back from last year's team. What. What stands out that might have you shifting your opinion, even if it's just slightly.
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How do we know how good they are? They haven't played anybody like at least we see. That's my question for Indiana. I know against Old Dominion they weren't great and then they bounced back and they had the blowout when they were supposed to get. But then once again with another, you know, opponent this weekend at Indiana State, I feel like they should blow them about out. But I feel like they're just one of those teams that's incomplete. I really don't know. I think you've gotten pretty much kind of what we'd expected. And I do wonder if that's a benefit for Illinois, the fact that they were road tested against a better opponent. But I still feel like this Indiana team is playing with a lot of confidence. I still feel like the expectation I had was that getting from it. Fernando Mendoza was going to be an upgrade from Curtis Roark. And I still do feel that way. But he hasn't been tested yet. So I still think Indiana is right where they need to be. But I just feel a little bit more confidence in Illinois because I've seen them tested more.
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Some of the questions I had on Indiana this year, offensive line, certainly one that they've played pretty well. Now it's Old Dominion and Kennesaw, so not exactly great tests so far. Defensive line looks to be dynamite. I think they're very happy with what they've gotten out of Mendoza so far. To me, one of the questions would be the secondary. Illinois can throw the football very well. You know, Penn State has some more weapons this year and they're obviously very good. Oregon looks to be throwing the football incredibly well. Iowa, not so much like an Aiden Childs game. If you really get like a level Aiden Chiles on that day, that could be trouble. But I think Illinois is firmly in contention or, sorry, Indiana is firmly in contention to grab that fourth Big Ten playoff spot.
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D
You know, Kurt Signetti takes a lot of heat for his bravado when he's in front of a microphone, especially when you compare it to how Indiana schedules its non conference slate both this season and in the future. But you can argue that especially for this year when you've got so many, many transfers coming into your roster. Having a non conference slate like the one that they're facing this year is probably kind of a benefit because it allows a lot of guys who haven't played together to get their feet wet and gel together as, you know, units, whether that's on the offensive line, defensive line, secondary, all across the board. And it also allows Fernando Mendoza, your new quarterback, to really get into a rhythm with his receivers. But Danny, as you mentioned, like they're not going to be tested this week against Indiana State, they have looked very good against both Old Dominion and Kennesaw. But when they have to face Illinois in a couple weeks, they're at home. But they're also facing an Illinois team that has the experience of already going on the road to play a good team and winning it. And they're also an experienced team that's been together for a few years now. So that does give the Alliani a slight edge. And while I think Indiana is a very good team and they will be in the hunt, one of the reasons I would give Illinois a slight edge over the Hoosiers right now, regardless of that head to head result, if you look at Illinois schedule and you compare it to Indiana's, Illinois has Ohio State and they have usc, which will not be easy games. But after Indiana plays Illinois, they've got Oregon, they've got Penn State, they have more difficult games on their schedule that they're not likely to win. So I look at that Illinois Indiana game in a couple weeks as a must win for Indiana. If Illinois loses it, I think they could still survive and make their way to the playoff.
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A
Big, big time stuff. Again, Indiana State is component for Friday night for the Indiana Hoosiers and then that game as we mentioned on September 20th in Bloomington, Indiana and Illinois, two of the teams that we've got in our sights trying to make a run to the College Football Playoff. But what if we reach a little bit deeper on the board? What if we're looking for a little bit of value? What if we've got a blue blood, recent national champion in a bounce back spot after a loss? What if we have a Nebraska program that's trying after finally breaking through to one level wants to take that next step? Michigan, Nebraska? We'll talk about some blue bloods and their College Football Playoff path and more next back here on the COVID 3 podcast live on CBS Sports Network. Looking at the College Football Playoff path for some Big Ten teams. Now we have already rolled through our Big three. We've added Indiana, which was in the CFP a year ago and Illinois one of the top ranked Big Ten teams currently. Now it's time to go a little deeper and see what needs to happen for some of these other teams if they want to be real contenders at the end of the season. And we begin with the team that's already one game off pace and that they just took a loss in a big stage over the over the weekend. And that would be the Michigan Wolverines. They go into Norman, they come out with a double digit loss to Oklahoma. Now Bud, you wondered on the COVID three podcasts whether Michigan has enough weapons to be able to capitalize on all of Bryce Underwood's talent. It wasn't great. I mean there were less completions in this game than I have fingers. There are only nine of them. Is this a team that you think not only can make it back after losing that non conference game, but has the ability to stack the wins that they would need to be a real CFP contender?
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E
Chip, I do think that there is a possibility because Bryce Underwood has already played pretty darn good for a freshman, right? And the defense is still really good. I no longer wonder if Michigan has the weapons. I think it's pretty clear they do not. They need to do a much better job in the transfer portal this coming offseason to make sure you're surrounding Bryce Underwood with that talent. But for this year I think there are a lot of teams on their schedule that they will be able to block unlike that excellent defense there at Oklahoma. Like Nebraska's defense looks a lot worse this year. You know Wisconsin's very beatable. USC will see they can block Washington, they can block Michigan State, they can block Purdue, they can block Northwestern, they can block Maryland, probably not Ohio State, but there is certainly possibility they could run this thing at 10 and 2. Obviously with the difficult non conference game on the road at Oklahoma and still be in the playoff picture. But they need the offensive line to step up too like that. That's an important piece. They're still calling games like they had the offensive line that they had two years ago, but so far through two games that offensive line is not playing like that unit two years ago. So you probably have to open this up and find a way to scheme some guys open a little bit more for Bryce Underwood because just the run game is not really cutting it. They had the home run against Oklahoma with the run game, but it was not consistently there on a down to down basis to be able to stay ahead of the chains.
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C
I think they have to develop. I don't think they have to have the type of player like a Jeremiah Smith or somebody on the outside where it's just like unbelievable mismatch. Maybe they can go get somebody like that down the road. But I do think they've shown enough. I mean, hey, Justice Haynes is a special running back. I mean, he showed that on that one big breakaway run that he had. Other than that, they didn't do very much. Their defense did a pretty good job. And what I think is going to be interesting is this defense can travel. And I do think they have this big matchup coming up in a couple of weeks at Nebraska. The team we're going to talk about next, which seems winnable. Like, I don't think they should. That's a game that they can't win. I do think this is the development year. Like, if you ask me right now, does Michigan make the playoffs? I would say no. Like, that Nebraska game is huge. I think the Ohio State game, like, can you beat them a fifth year in a row? I mean, if you want to just go with history, I say yeah. But I just. That seems like almost insurmountable task the way Ohio State looks, even though they've done it already and the schedule seems manageable. Road trips to usc, Washington, we already talked about. Michigan State's a little bit better. I think this is probably a 9 and 3 season for Michigan, just on the outside looking in, especially knowing now that they already have that one loss on the road to Oklahoma. So I think this is more of a rebuild year. But I like the pieces that are in place and maybe there's room for improvement. Maybe that offensive line can get sort of that Michigan mentality where they didn't ask JJ McCarthy to do a lot in the national championship year. They were able to just lean on teams. They didn't have a superstar wide receiver in that year, but they had tight ends. Like, I. I just feel like they need to find some more weapons for Bryce Underwood. But clearly I think they'll improve. I just wonder if this is the year they can get it done.
- [29:52]
D
Yeah, when I look at Michigan because of their schedule, I see a team that could possibly reach the College Football Playoff. It's just if they do get there, I see them probably losing badly in their first round game because they're likely not going to be a home team in that spot because if they're 10 and 2 and their losses are to Ohio State and Oklahoma, I don't think they're going to get a very high seed. Based on who they would have beaten. But they'll get in because of their name. But when I look at this team as a whole, it's funny because I thought last year's team was a very good football team with a horrible quarterback situation. Now I see a team with a very promising quarterback who I think's kind of backslid at a lot of the other spots that were what were really special about Michigan last year. Like, I don't think the defense is bad, but I don't think it's nearly as good as it was last year. And I look at their receivers and I just don't see a huge difference maker. So for this team to really kind of reach its ceiling, it's gonna have to lean on its run game. And as you and Bud mentioned, Danny, like Justice Haynes is a good player. And if it's kind of a half glass, you know, is it half full, half empty situation? Because last year Michigan had two runs all season long of 50 yards or more. This year, through two games, they've already got three. But the glass half empty is they've only got four runs over 10 on the entire season. And their explosive run rate of 4.4% ranks 122nd nationally. And it's just hard to imagine this team is going to be able to put together a lot of points on the board week in and week out without popping multiple long runs along the way, because I just don't see the receiving game being able to do it through the air unless Bryce Underwood completely lifts up the talent around him, which is a lot to ask of a true freshman quarterback at the University of Michigan. So I, I think the playoff is still there, but I just don't think it's likely. I'm kind of selling a little bit on Michigan based on what I saw in Oklahoma. I didn't expect them to go in there and look great, but they didn't look even as good as I thought they might.
- [31:41]
A
Well, Danny, I, I do appreciate you for a lot of things, but especially mentioning that big game coming up on September 20th and big time from Lincoln where we're, of course, it will be Michigan and Nebraska. So dk, take us to the other side. Take us to the Nebraska side. You know, I wasn't expecting to take a lot in terms of, you know, film study X's and O's, but it was what the camera caught behind the scenes that seems to be making waves. Matt Rule laying into his team at halftime, carrying a 33.0lead. They come out, they just continue to Lay it on the zips. So we've got the whole opener against Cincinnati where we try to take some, some pieces away from that one score win. Congratulations, Akron. Not as much we could look at for Nebraska. What is the playoff path look like in terms of what they need to do and sort of what the, what the games are that are going to be the big swing games.
- [32:39]
C
So clearly I don't think Houston Christian is going to provide the challenge this weekend to give us any more answers this weekend. But I do like the mentality, like I think Matt Rule, that halftime speech that goes viral of him going out there saying, and they're up 33 to nothing and he's acting like they're down 33 to nothing, saying we're going to go hammer him in the second half and the team responding. I think that's huge. I do think this is a team that really buys into Matt Rule. I think Matt Rule is a perfect college coach to motivate players. But more importantly, I think you've seen a development of Dylan Ryle. I know it's only been two games and I'll go back to the Cincinnati game. I thought he looked pretty comfortable in that system, knowing where to go with the football, getting outside of the pocket. I thought that development looks crucial and I do think you're starting to see that improvement. Although in the back of my mind I'm like, he started off out last year, like he still hasn't played the better competition. But I'll flip it on the other side because Nebraska's defense looked pretty good against Cincinnati, you know, defending the pass, but where they weren't real good was defending the running quarterback where Brennan Sorsby, you know, was running all over them. That was really only Cincinnati offense that they provided in that game. I think they can clean that up and I do think that could be something to keep an eye on. The rush defense against Michigan. That to me is going to be a significant matchup that Nebraska can. So this is the, this is what you worry about in Michigan. We were just talking about that, like if they take away the run game, make them one dimensional, I think Nebraska will be fine. But can Michigan's offensive line lean on Nebraska, get Justin's Haynes going, play a little bit of time, possession. And can Dylan Raiola get protection, which has been better against some of the teams so far? Can they get that type of protection against Michigan where he's still taking some hits and he has to move around a little bit. But I clearly think Nebraska is better than last season. I'm just trying to decipher where the ceiling is for them now. I still think they're in this conversation, though, from the early returns.
- [34:33]
D
I feel like Nebraska is better than last season. I don't know that Nebraska is better than off season because I feel like I don't know anything really about Nebraska so far this season because, yeah, they got that win against Cincinnati in the opener at Arrowhead Stadium. Patrick Mahomes got to watch his protege, you know, beat the Bearcats. But, but I, I never try to take too much away from what you see in the opening game of the season. And offensively, Dylan Raiola, to me, didn't really look any different in that game than the kid I saw late in the year. It was a lot of short throws, the stuff down the field. He did not look sharp on. He did not look to be on time with a lot of stuff. But I also don't want to hold it against him because again, it's the first game of the season. I expect there to be some rust. And for all we know, like, the defense looked pretty good in that game except for the Brendan Sorsby running all over in part that Danny mentioned. But who knows? Cincinnati's offense might stink as the season goes along. That might just be what, you know, the Cincinnati Bearcats look like against everybody. And this is Nebraska defense that we did have some questions about coming into the year with Tony White leaving to become the defensive coordinator at Florida State and losses of some key players. So I'm not taking too much from what I've seen in those two games away on the defensive side of the ball. So this is a team to me, that still remains the mystery. And Danny, as you said, I don't think we're going to really learn a whole heck of a lot more against Houston Christian this week. It might not be until that Michigan game where we find out if Nebraska is legit or not.
- [35:54]
E
Yeah, Tom, I'm going to agree with you on that. I think this is such a strange Nebraska team and that they're very like not typical Matt Rule team on both the offense and the defense. The players on the outside, the small guys for Nebraska at least so far, are way better than what they have on the lines of scrimmage. I thought Cincinnati actually pushed them around on both sides of the ball, had some really unfortunate special teams and overall turnovers that kind of gave Nebraska that game like Cincinnati had a chance to win that thing in. In the end, if Sorsby doesn't throw that kind of, kind of boneheaded interception there. I think some of their transfer they took on the offensive line are kind of disappointing so far. And defensively, I mean guys, there's a lot of dudes in this rotation who have played like starters level snaps or significant contributor level snaps who you know on PFF are like sub 55 grades which is like below replacement level. And you know when you go and play some of these Big Ten teams that are stout on the lines of scrimmage, Rayola is going to have to be a magician a lot. I I think this year because they're not consistent with the run game so far and defensively, I mean if Cincinnati with four new offensive linemen in the opening game pushed you around, there's always you're allowed to get better, but I don't know how much better they're going to get.
- [36:59]
A
Yeah, we we've got a couple College Football Playoff race eliminators it seems. Another one right there September 20th in Lincoln. Make sure you watch it on CBS, stream it on Paramount plus, well, coming up on the other side, we'll welcome in a few more contenders to the party. Who are the teams that could also enter the CFP conversation from the Big ten? We'll give you a few more and more next.
- [37:26]
B
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B
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- [38:30]
A
On the COVID 3 podcast, continuing to roll through the path to the College Football Playoff for some teams in the Big Ten, we're working way through the conference. And now we've gotten to a couple of teams that might be overlooked and certainly were in the preseason. So, Tom, USC has absolutely pasted its first two opponents of the season, Missouri State and Georgia Southern. Now, USC has seems to be clicking on all cylinders, but they need to face some tougher competition. What's your outlook for the Trojans? Do you think Lincoln Riley has a College Football Playoff contender in la?
- [39:07]
D
I mean, I. I think if you've watched USC through these first two games, you are certainly impressed with what you have seen from the offense. Jordan Mava has looked strong and the wide receivers look very good. The offensive line has performed well against inferior competition. And defensively the team has looked solid. It is not giving up a big bunch of big plays. It's tackling better than what we saw in the last few years. It's just the numbers are also kind of misleading. Like, I was digging into them for my column this week and it's like Oregon. I was. I was really going in deep on the Oregon offense based on what we saw. And I'm like, man, Oregon's finishing second in a lot of these stats in the conference and it's USC that's in first. Like they've just been outstanding. And then I look, and you mentioned earlier in the show, Chip, Oregon's blown its two opponents out and stopped playing in the fourth quarter. Like it's score in the fourth quarter in two weeks is they've scored seven, they've allowed seven. USC in the fourth quarter when they're already destroying their opponents. They've outscored them 31 to nothing. This is a team that is running it up in garbage time quite a bit to really inflate their stats, but that's something that they kind of have to do. Oregon's going to get the benefit of the doubt from the College Football Playoff committee because we know what they are. They won the Big Ten last year. They were one of the best teams in the country. USC has been kind of wandering in the desert these last few years ever since winning 10 games three years ago. So they know they have to be a little bit more impressive to get everybody's attention, and they're doing a great job of it. Look at those stats that are on your television screen right now. They're scoring 66 points per game. But I do need to see this team do it against real competition. And I don't know if we're going to qualify Purdue as real competition this weekend. But I will point out to you, USC struggled mightily when it went on the road last year. It lost to Minnesota and it lost to a Maryland team that was one of the worst teams in the Big Ten that wasn't named Purdue. And if you have watched Purdue this season, you know that they're still not very good, but they're a much better and much more competent team than the team we saw last year. So I need to see USC go on the road and not only beat Purdue, but I want to see him kick Purdue's butt before I really start buying in on this team might be a playoff contender. Not saying beating Purdue proves it, but it'll start making me paying more attention.
- [41:14]
E
I think USC is by far the most likely team to make the playoff of all the ones we talked today. If they play to their talent level. We've said that before with the Trojans. But these outside receivers, I think I would take this receiver room over everyone in the country except for the guys in Columbus. Defensively, they look better, riley told us at Big Ten media day. I think the stuff that Mava was struggling with last year is easily fixable. So far this year, he does look more decisive. I think they hit on that. They let Miller Moss walk to Louisville and they don't seem to miss him at all. As long as the interior offensive line holds up. When they play some of these better defensive lines in the Big Ten, I think USC is in the driver's seat for that number four spot in the Big Ten.
- [41:51]
C
I had USC as a playoff team in the preseason. This was my dark horse pick, that kind of. And I know Chip was big on him, too. I still don't know the answers. I think you have to feel encouraged about Jaden Maeve, his development, like you said. And I go back to us talking to Miller Moss when he was the quarterback usc, and we asked him about the receivers and he said, Makai Lemon, his eyes kind of lit up and he has delivered and looks like Mava's favorite target. But I that's the one thing I don't know. I think they were close last year. I think they're better. I think they're mentally tougher, I think they're physically tougher. But we're not truly going to know until they go out in the road and get tested. But there's probably only one game, and it's the Oregon game that I really don't like their chances, even that one. They could pull off the upset. But every other game I look in the schedule, I'm like, yeah, I could see them winning that.
- [42:34]
A
All right, Danny, where on Washington's schedule do you see the spots where the Huskies could maybe be able to get wins to put themselves in a place to go and contend for the College Football Playoff?
- [42:46]
C
I think there's a big opportunity for them. You know, Ohio State at home, you know, Ohio State, that'll be their first big road test. So can they pull that one off? I don't love it. But the Illinois game to me comes down a team that if we're talking about the fourth best team and we already talked about Illinois being in that race and it's in your backyard, that to me is a huge opportunity for Washington to do that. You know, the Oregon game, I think that's going to be hands full. The other games on their at Michigan, that's one that they, you know, beat that team last year. I don't think they're intimidated by them. I think they're a better team this year. But I think those are probably the spots that you circle and say those are the opportunities for Washington to make inroads here.
- [43:28]
D
But yeah, I, I think if you look at what's going on like the Ohio State game, I don't expect them to win it, but it will be a good litmus test for how good this team trul he can be, especially this early in the season and coming off of a rivalry game against Washington State. But for me, the Huskies are still very much a wait and see team because as we saw with the schedule, Ohio State's the first test, but they've got quite a few tests that they're going to have to answer every single week this year.
- [43:52]
E
I, I, I think with Washington it's going to come down to defensive line. Like, do they have the guys in the defensive line to hold up and get enough stops? I am confident Jed Fish with Demon Williams will find a way to score points in almost every game.
- [44:03]
A
We'll see. I mean, Demond Williams gotta, gotta get it done. Gotta flex his muscles a little bit against somebody that's not UC Davis. So we will see about that. Lots to look at. Washington State on deck right now for the Huskies coming up on the other side. Every single week, we like to leave you with a player to watch for Big Ten. We'll let you know for week three and more next back here on the COVID 3 podcast live on CBS Sports Network. A few minutes left to get you set for week three and we love to send you off with the player to watch. Bud Elliott, who do you have your eyes on for the player to watch? This week.
- [44:39]
E
Got a name for you guys at usc. Waymond Jordan. Remember they lost Joiner to Texas Tech in the off season. Declined to match Texas Tech's offer. Like we got a kid from junior college we like a lot. Running back Wayman Jordan looks to be a stud for the Trojans. I want to see if he can keep it rolling.
- [44:53]
C
I know you guys love advanced analytics. I'm an old school guy so I just go by flat out QB ranking. Like what's their efficiency? Jaden Maa is, is second in the country. We were just talking about how good he looks out there. Six touchdowns, zero interceptions, 74% of his passes. Can he keep it rolling this weekend? Big Ten competition. Curious to see if he can.
- [45:14]
D
Man, maybe we should have just played the USC fight song during this segment. I'm going to go a little north of the Trojans. I didn't mention him when discussing Washington in the last segment because I knew I'd be mentioning him now. Washington running back Jonah Coleman through two games has rushed for 288 yards and seven touchdowns. The 288 rushing yards is the most most of any powerful running back and the seven rushing touchdowns is the most of anybody in the nation. He's having an incredible season and he's kind of putting together what could be a Heisman campaign.
- [45:43]
A
Yeah, we did not intentionally just go total spotlight with a player to watch on usc, which is by the way a team that you can watch on CBS in the game of the week as they go on the road to play Purdue. But yeah, I, I, I am looking at Makai Lemon. I mean we've, we got the running back, we got the quarterback. How about the guy who's making spectacular catch after spectacular catch? Danny, I know you mentioned him earlier, Bud. You were talking about the wide receiver room. Jacoby Lane on the other side as well. I just think that this Trojan's offense like they are putting up ridiculous numbers against lesser competition. But they also are trying to make sure that they have the rhythm and the confidence to make sure that it is sustainable even against the very toughest opponents of the entire season. Again, USC at Purdue. You can watch it on CBS 3:30pm Eastern Time with Gary, Brad and Jenny on the call. Well, if you want to find us. Oh you know where to find us. YouTube.com cover3 where we are live every Monday, Wednesday, Thursday at 11am Eastern Time, then Saturday nights at 11:30pm Eastern Time for an instant reaction to all of the day's events. Tomorrow, Wednesday we will be doing a big game Breakdown Spotlight for Texas A and M, Notre Dame, Florida, lsu, Georgia, Tennessee, Miami, usf, and so much more. So come and hang out and follow and download the COVID 3 podcast, wherever you get your podcast. I'm Dexter Morgan. I've been through hell, but now I'm back for my curtain call. And what better place to hide than New York City? There may be a new area code, but my code never changes. In a city full of monsters, my dark urges will feel right at home.
- [47:36]
B
Dexter Resurrection.
- [47:38]
D
Starring Michael C. Hall, Uma Thurman and Peter Dinklage.
- [47:41]
B
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