Cover 3 College Football Podcast

Episode: Bill Connelly On The State of College Football, Returning Production & More

Date: March 20, 2025

Episode Overview

The hosts—Bud Elliott and Danny Kanell—are joined by ESPN's Bill Connelly, renowned creator of SP+ advanced metrics, to discuss the current state of college football, the impact of returning production, emerging analytics trends, conference power dynamics, and factors shaping the 2025 season. The discussion provides deep insight into statistical models, roster management in the portal era, and which teams might surprise or disappoint this year. They also field listener questions and explore the changing landscape from both a narrative and quantitative angle.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Most Important Metric for Winning (03:02)

• Audience Tailgate Question: If a coach could optimize just one metric to improve win totals, which would it be?
• Bill Connelly:
  • Immediate answer: Offensive Explosiveness.
  • Quote: “If you make more big offensive plays, you’re going to win a lot more ball games.” (03:10)
  • Notes the challenge in actually controlling explosiveness or turnovers, but underscores their correlation with winning.

2. 2024 Trends Applied to 2025: Passing Downturn & Defensive Evolution (03:54)

• Connelly observed a notable drop in passing efficiency in 2024 (“Death of the forward pass”)—possibly just noise, but worth noting as a trend.
• Points to a defensive adaptation cycle: after an era of offensive dominance and high-tempo exploitation, defenses have adapted and “know what they’re doing a lot more.” (04:25)
• Quote: “We’re definitely in that period. I think defenses definitely know what they’re doing a lot more against kind of just the average college football offense than they did five, 10 years ago.” (04:44)

3. Offensive & Defensive Chess Match: The Pendulum Swings (06:18)

• Danny Kanell: Observes the perpetual pendulum between offensive innovation and defensive counter-adjustment.

  • Quote: “...everyone was going up-tempo, everyone was throwing it ... then you think... if you’re a team that doesn’t have that explosive offense, you run the ball and have great defense ... the pendulum has swung back a little bit toward normal football.” (06:18)

• Bill Connelly: Notes that as defenses adopted more nickel personnel and lighter boxes, offenses are seeking new advantages, possibly by getting more physical (07:15).

4. Defensive Schemes & Limiting Big Plays (08:00)

• Further exploration of “two-high” shells trickling down from the NFL and the “Mahomes effect”: Defenses cede short gains to avoid big plays.
  • Quote (Bill): “You can be as efficient as you want, but we’re not gonna give up big plays. And that requires offenses and quarterbacks to be smart and patient—which, you know, 20-year-old dudes aren’t known for being.” (08:24)
• Innovation prediction: Potential for more “big and strong” offenses, e.g. more tight ends split wide, but only selective teams do so regularly.

5. The Shrinking Middle: G5 vs. Power Conferences and Program Sustainability (09:19)

• Discussion on Group of 5 (G5) quality drop: Many former mid-majors now power conference teams; tougher to sustain success due to transfers and coaching turnover.
• Bill Connelly: “Now you can lose your head coach and your starting quarterback and your three best receivers and half your defense.” (10:33)
• Boise State used as a case study for the difficulty of holding on to talent and sustaining success (10:00–12:04).

6. The Transfer Portal & NIL: Evener and Separator (12:04)

• Portal effect: Big money programs can now choose to retain top players rather than only shopping for upgrades; “have vs. have not” chasm is wider.
• Quote (Connelly): “The combination of the portal and the money ... has made the kind of the first and second tiers of the sport kind of closer together ... and it's made it even harder for the G5, obviously.” (13:04)
• Connelly gives figures for average returning production by league—Power conference teams retain more, G5 depleted each cycle. (13:44)

7. Playoff Access & the Diminished Cinderella (14:35)

• Bud Elliott: Expresses that 2025 is “so wide open” at the top, but G5 teams are less likely to make deep playoff runs.
• Connelly: “We’re kind of legislating those [Cinderella] stories away, but we’re creating excitement in another way too.” (15:20)
• Reason: Top-16 teams are as compressed as he's ever seen; more parity at the top, less likelihood of G5 playoff breakthroughs.

8. The Size of the Gap: How Far Can a G5 Team Go? (16:14)

• Connelly on G5 Playoff Odds: “I would assume Final Fours as far as you’ll ever see. It would take a lot of breaks ... those teams can beat top teams ... but can’t beat four top teams probably.” (16:54)

9. SEC vs Big Ten: Depth vs. Top End (17:29, 18:26)

• SP+ Numbers: SEC has superior depth; only one team outside the top-52. Big Ten has several at the top but a weaker bottom seven.
• Quarterback Uncertainty: SEC has more upside in returning QBs; Big Ten is relying on untested talent to pan out (18:00).

10. Realistic Playoff Races & Schedule Imbalance (19:57, 32:33)

• Speed Round on Conference Parity: More three-loss SEC teams will vie for playoff spots due to competitive compression.
• Discussion about the randomness of schedule strength in the bloated SEC and Big Ten: “You could be a top-20 level team and go 6-6.” (32:50)
• Quote (Connelly): “The quality of play is in your control. The schedule ... especially in these conferences ... is so huge that ... it’s hard to keep everything on the right track if the wins don’t come. But also ... if you want to make a smart, informed decision, how good you were matters more than what your record was.” (33:55)

11. SP+ Anomalies, Overachievers, and Skepticism (22:10–50:43)

- Alabama (#2 in SP+):

• Still among top rosters; “They were out of sorts last year, especially on offense, but nobody’s going to be surprised if they rip off an 11–1 season.” (22:48)

- Penn State (Top 3):

• Elite defense “even without Abdul Carter,” offense improved with Cottle Nicky, doubts only about receiver and Aller’s upside. “They were a semifinal team that was one play away from the title game last year. ... They earned it.” (25:10)

- The Big 12 Blob:

• Seven teams in SP+ range 26-36, none a clear title threat. “Whoever wins number one is going to be the team that went like 5-1 in one-score games ... good luck figuring out which one.” (28:00)

- Oklahoma:

• Top-20 by SP+ but projected only six wins (brutal schedule). “They could be a top 20 level team and go 6-6. ... I think that should matter [to ADs].” (33:00)

- Auburn & Missouri:

• Auburn: If new QB Arnold breaks out, “That kind of sounds like top-10 potential ... I’ve never seen a team that reliably self-destructed like that.” (45:00)
• Missouri: At #15, higher than expected, raising internal skepticism but reflective of last year’s breakthroughs. (50:43)

- Texas (#7):

• “SP+ doesn’t give an Arch [Manning] effect bump, so it sees them as basically the same team they were the last few years.” (46:38)

- Clemson (#11):

• Most returning production nationally, but recent results warrant skepticism about vaulting into clear top-3 status. (41:32)

- Florida State (51st):

• “Florida State’s unprojectable ... from a projection standpoint it’s completely just throwing a dart here and, you know, well, it’s splitting the difference.” (35:02)
• “I’d sure like better quarterbacks to choose from ... but I would still assume they get to 7–5 or 8–4. I don’t know why you would possibly think higher.” (35:56)

12. “Cinderella” Candidate Musings (39:09)

• Lowest team with Natty upside?
  • Connelly: “If you’re really stretching the bounds of believability ... OU at 20 ... Florida if DJ Lagway is suddenly the best QB in the country ... otherwise, LSU at 10.” (39:09–40:29)
  • “It doesn’t come past 10. ... To win four top-15 games, it’s not going to be any easier now than it was in the four-team.” (41:02)

13. The Bill Belichick North Carolina Experiment (50:43)

• “Speaking of unprojectable, this is just an amazing thought experiment ... I would just throw top 50 up there and wait to see what happens because I have absolutely no sort of preconceived notions here.” (51:00)
• Observes the dramatic practice style shift UNC will undergo, from “late-career Mack Brown to late-career Bill Belichick.” (52:39)

14. Basketball Tangent: March Madness & Analytics (53:45)

• Bud and Bill briefly discuss the NCAA basketball tournament, Ken Pomeroy’s note on conference overachievement and March regression.
• Bill: “Big overachieving best conferences of all time kind of run out of gas by March ... I’m curious what that means.” (53:50)

Notable Quotes

• Bill Connelly (03:10): “If you make more big offensive plays, you’re going to win a lot more ball games.”
• Bill Connelly (04:44): “Defenses definitely know what they’re doing a lot more against kind of just the average college football offense than they did five, 10 years ago.”
• Danny Kanell (06:18): “The pendulum has swung back a little bit toward normal football.”
• Bill Connelly (08:24): “You can be as efficient as you want, but we’re not going to give up big plays. And that requires offenses and quarterbacks to be smart and patient—which, you know, 20-year-old dudes aren’t known for being.”
• Bill Connelly (13:04): “The portal and the money ... made the first and second tiers of the sport kind of closer together ... and it’s even harder for the G5.”
• Bill Connelly (15:20): “We’re kind of legislating those [Cinderella stories] away, but we’re creating excitement in another way too.”
• Bill Connelly (35:02): “Florida State’s unprojectable ... from a projection standpoint it’s completely just throwing a dart here ... burden of proof is on them.”
• Bill Connelly (33:55): “If you want to make a smart, informed decision, how good you were matters more than what your record was.”
• Bill Connelly (41:02): “To win four games [in a playoff], it’s not going to be any easier now than it was in the four-team or the BCS.”

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 03:02 — Most important team metric for winning
• 03:54 — 2024 trends: decline in passing, defensive evolution
• 06:18 — Pendulum of offensive/defensive supremacy
• 09:19 — G5 falloff and roster retention crisis
• 12:04 — Impact of portal, NIL & new transfer dynamics
• 14:35 — G5 playoff potential & Power 4 compression
• 17:29 — SEC/Big Ten depth; conference strength debate
• 22:10 — Team-by-team SP+ hot takes (Alabama, Penn State, etc.)
• 32:33 — SP+ vs. win/loss for coaching hot seat
• 39:09 — Cinderella possibilities by SP+ rating
• 46:20 — Texas, Alabama, and way-too-early rankings
• 50:43 — UNC’s Bill Belichick experiment and the unknowable
• 53:45 — March Madness crossover segment

Tone & Style

The episode is a lively, data-driven, and sometimes tongue-in-cheek conversation, blending deep statistical analytics with relatable anecdotes and clear-eyed skepticism about preseason projections. Bill Connelly brings a mix of technical insight, humor, and realism, while Bud Elliott and Danny Kanell steer the conversation toward both the “how” and “why” of college football’s coming year.

Takeaways

• The “parity” at the top of college football is as high as ever, but at the expense of a diminished Cinderella factor from G5 teams.
• Returning production correlates to higher performance but is highly impacted by portal activity—wealthy programs can now retain as much talent as they want.
• Several storied programs remain “unprojectable”—notably Florida State and now North Carolina under Belichick—while others show a clear analytic profile but face brutal schedules or are highly quarterback-dependent.
• It’s a unique transitional year with more uncertainty about power dynamics, and preseason projections will be tested by rapidly shifting roster and scheme factors.

For listeners seeking a thorough, analytical, and entertaining preview of the 2025 season’s biggest talking points and controversies, this episode is a must-hear (or read).