CFP FIRST-ROUND LOCKS: Best Bets, Odds & Picks for College Football | Alabama-Oklahoma & More!

Summary

Cover 3 College Football Podcast

Episode: CFP FIRST-ROUND LOCKS – Best Bets, Odds & Picks for the College Football Playoff | Alabama-Oklahoma & More!

Date: December 18, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott, with guest Mackenzie Brooks

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Episode Overview

The Cover 3 crew dives deep into the opening round of the 2025 College Football Playoff, breaking down the Alabama-Oklahoma showdown, Miami-Texas A&M, Ole Miss-Tulane, and Oregon-James Madison. The podcast is packed with betting insight: best bets ("locks"), analysis of home field impacts, injury and player status updates, turnover talk, and strategic advice for bowl pick'ems and pools. The hosts also sprinkle in player- and team-centric storylines, data-driven trends, and their best underdog “sprinkles.” The conversational, irreverent tone persists throughout, offering both smart football takes and plenty of banter.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Alabama at Oklahoma – Rematch Playoff Preview

Segment Start: 09:36

Best Bets and Theories

• Chip Patterson: Alabama 1H (+0.5) – “I think that some of Alabama’s best offensive work has come early in games. Venables’ Sooners make stronger adjustments in the second half. So, give me Bama plus a half in the first half.” (10:01)
• Bud Elliott: 1H Over 19.5 – Both teams’ playcallers will try to press the tempo and scheme open shots early. “I do trust Ben Arbuckle to scheme up some stuff here … I think both teams will take some shots early.” (11:04)
• Tom Fornelli & Ken's Brooks: Oklahoma Pick’em – Large emphasis on home-field edge; more rest, health, and defensive pass rush. “I think we’re underestimating the impact of being at home in these games … it’s not easy to go into Norman and beat the Sooners.” (14:07, 17:57)
• Ken’s Brooks: Under 40 – “I just don’t trust either one of these defenses … this game is going to be a rock fight.” (18:37)

Analytical Highlights

• Home field advantage is crucial—since 2016, Oklahoma is 32-7 at home vs. Power 4 teams, sixth best nationally.
• Oklahoma’s pass rush getting healthier; Bama’s O-line remains a concern, especially with missing pieces.
• Turnovers are expected to swing the game; both teams rely heavily on them for recent wins.
• Wind gusts (20-30 mph) could limit the passing and special teams games.

Notable Quotes

• “If you wanted to have some fun … you could play both teams to win by 14+.” – Bud Elliott, on betting volatile outcomes (16:00)
• “It’s not easy to go into Norman and beat the Sooners. No matter who you are.” – Tom Fornelli (17:57)

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2. Miami at Texas A&M

Segment Start: 20:32

Best Bets and Leans

• Tom: Over 48 – Both teams can expose weaker pass defenses with elite receivers. “I think both of these teams match up well enough on offense to test the defenses … when [they] have, I’ve seen those secondaries get picked apart.” (20:34)
• Bud: Miami +3.5 – Trusts Miami’s defense to get pressure with four; questions A&M’s competition quality. “I just trust Carson Beck more than Marcel Reed. … Miami has a lot of difference makers on defense.” (21:31)
• Chip: Miami TT over 22.5 – Confident Miami can hit 23 points given A&M’s run defense vulnerability.
• Ken’s: Miami +3.5 – Miami’s D can keep Reed contained, and recent A&M defensive lapses vs. better offenses stand out.

Analytical Highlights

• A&M’s defensive stats skewed by weak opposition; have struggled to contain explosive plays vs. quality teams.
• Turnovers could easily decide the result, referencing both teams’ recent games.
• Matchup dynamics: Miami’s speed and explosive players vs. A&M’s occasionally confused coverage.

Notable Quotes

• “Texas A&M’s defense—so, so good, right? But when they’ve played better offenses … I think Miami will score.” – Ken’s Brooks (24:02)
• “If this one turns lopsided, it’s probably the interception bug.” – Tom Fornelli (26:52)

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3. Ole Miss vs. Tulane

Segment Start: 30:09

Best Bets and Leans

• Bud: 1H Over 29 – “The way some other teams have played Tulane with tempo has been effective … both secondaries are kind of the weakness.” (31:12)
• Tom: Ole Miss Team Total Over 36.5 – “They had 10 real possessions in the first game and scored on eight of them … I feel comfortable [Ole Miss will] approach 40 points.” (31:52)
• Ken’s: Ole Miss -17.5 – “Just lay the points. I think Ole Miss is the better team. We saw it once.”
• Chip: Leans sticker-shock, blowout scenario; expects Ole Miss to “stay aggressive and try to put together the kind of sticker shock score that is going to last with fans for a long time.” (35:51)

Analytical Highlights

• Tulane’s secondary gets exposed by tempo and spread concepts; both teams dealing with significant off-field distractions (coaching, transfer portal).
• Both teams’ rosters will look very different next year, which could muddle focus and effort/motivation.

Notable Quotes

• “What is a lock? James Madison first half team total over 6.5. Now that’s a lock.” – Chip Patterson (42:00)

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4. Oregon vs. James Madison

Segment Start: 37:16

Best Bets and Leans

• Bud: JMU 1H team total under 6.5 – “I respect James Madison’s defense a whole lot … I think their offense is hot garbage.” (37:27)
• Chip: JMU 1H team total over 6.5 – “If Oregon doesn’t come out merciless, JMU’s coaching can find the end zone once.”
• Tom: Under 47.5 – “Either Oregon blows the doors off JMU and packs it up … [or] JMU slows the game down with their run game and good D.” (39:38)
• Ken’s: Oregon -20.5 – “Not to be an elitist, but I think these teams (P5 playoff contenders) are just that much better … Oregon’s O- and D-lines will control the trenches.” (40:28)

Analytical Highlights

• Oregon is still a step above in talent, particularly in the trenches; possible resting of key offensive players, but not defenders.
• JMU’s defense might hold up early, but the offense’s limitations likely too great to keep up.
• If Oregon subs early in the second half, some risk on big point spreads/overs.

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5. Bowl “Best Bets” Recap and Moneyline “Sprinkles”

Segment Start: 44:53

Locks Recap

• Complete rundown of each panelist’s picks, focused on first halves, full-game lines, totals, team totals.
• Major consensus on Miami as an underdog worth a serious look.

Moneyline Underdog Sprinkles

• Bud: Alabama +102
• Chip: Miami +150, Tulane +700
• Danny: Miami +150
• Tom: Tulane +700, James Madison +1200
• Consensus: Miami is the “staff pick” to pull an upset; comedic value if Tulane KO’s Lane/Kiffin-less Ole Miss is “off-the-board hilarious.”

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6. Additional Bowl Previews and Leans

• Xbox Bowl: Arkansas State -1.5 over Missouri State — “Butch Jones knows the value of a bowl win.” (52:09)
• Myrtle Beach Bowl: Kennesaw State +3 (Tom) — “I really like Kennesaw State this year.”
• Gasparilla Bowl: NC State lean (Bud if pressed), but Dave Doeren’s bowl futility noted; under 57.5 (Tom) seems feasible but “not a lock.” (55:57)

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7. Listener Interaction & Closing Banter

• The crew debates livestream reaction timing for optimal viewership and “pillow” as the real competition for attention. (58:40)
• Mackenzie Brooks joins, gives her picks (Oklahoma ML, Oregon 1H -11.5, Texas A&M -3), and reflects on playoff scenarios and Georgia-Ohio State as a potential Fiesta Bowl classic. (60:28–66:19)

Memorable Moments

• “[If Alabama loses] … does Charlie Weis Jr. even make it into the office, or does he just have his key card revoked?” – Chip, on the “funniest possible outcome” (47:55)
• “In the SEC, it’s hard. Okay? It’s hard to win a game in this conference.” – Chip, tongue-in-cheek, on SEC bias (63:26)
• “The real enemy isn’t other shows. It’s the pillow.” – Bud, on why to livestream right after games finish (58:44)

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• [09:36] – Alabama vs. Oklahoma: Betting and breakdown
• [20:32] – Miami vs. Texas A&M locks
• [30:09] – Ole Miss-Tulane preview, best bets
• [37:16] – Oregon-James Madison preview, picks
• [44:53] – Recap of Locks & Moneyline Sprinkles
• [51:57] – Xbox, Myrtle Beach, Gasparilla Bowls: leans and preview
• [60:28] – Mackenzie Brooks joins: her picks, Georgia-Ohio State/Festival Bowl talk

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Episode Takeaways

• Consensus best bets: Miami’s spread, Ole Miss points, and unders in games featuring top defenses.
• Major themes: Home field impact, importance of turnovers, injury updates, and playoff pressure.
• Tone: Witty back-and-forth, stats-driven, and sharply observational, with layered football and betting knowledge.

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Quotes of the Day

• “It’s not easy to go into Norman and beat the Sooners. No matter who you are.” – Tom Fornelli (17:57)
• “What is a lock? JMU first half team total over 6.5. Now that’s a lock.” – Chip Patterson (42:00)
• “The real enemy isn’t other shows. It’s the pillow.” – Bud Elliott (58:44)

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For More

• Tune in: For instant reactions after the Alabama-Oklahoma and Oregon-JMU playoff games, on YouTube.com/Cover3.
• Follow the hosts: Best bets, leans, and additional analysis will be available on their social media.

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This summary gives you a comprehensive, structured snapshot of all the episode’s substantive discussion, strategic betting angles, and the signature Cover 3 banter and energy. If you missed it, you're now up to speed on every key storyline, argument, and lock!

Transcript

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[Chip Patterson]

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[Dann Cannell]

Dann Canal and Bud Elliott. It's your call for the best college football coverage from national signing day to the national championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the COVID 3 podcast.

[Chip Patterson]

And welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fenelli, that's Danny Cannell, that's Bud Elliott. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you [e-mail] cover3 and everywhere. You get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that, subscribe, smash that like and come and join us in the chat. AKA the COVID 3 tailgate, where I have a question for y'. All. Tailgate, let's go. I see you everybody locked in, ready to go. But have you in the tailgate? Have you at home gotten yourself locked in for the COVID 3 Bowl? Pick them on Splash. That's right. Bowl season is here and we're teamed up again with Splash Sports for a bowl pick them contest. 0 entry fee and $5,000 in splash cash on the and plus, as we've been discussing the ultimate bragging rights of being the best most locked in member of the COVID 3 tailgate going head to head with us as well. Here's how it works. You've got different weeks. Kind of like our full season long Splash contest. The first one are going to be the games we're picking today, the College Football Playoff first round. Then you've got some holiday games and the contest will continue all the way through bowl season, all the way through the College Football Playoff. You pick one best bet, but you pick all the games that they offer. The best bet is everything. It's worth double the points. Now, first place at the end of the postseason takes home fifteen hundred dollars in Splash cash for a free entry. That's outrageous. And we're paying the top 10 spots, so you've got a legitimate shot to win cash even if you're not perfect. That's $5,000 in total prizes. Zero entry. All yours for the taking. All you got to do is go to splash sports.com cover3 free to enter. Only takes a couple minutes. Again, splash sports.com cover3. Lock in your picks, rep the cover3 community, and let's see who really knows ball. Bull pickens, Best bets. Come on, let's go. Got. Got to get in there any.

[Bud Elliott]

Any season.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. This is. This is where we go.

[Tom Fornelli]

Are you.

[Chip Patterson]

Do you think that the head coach leaving is a distraction, or do you think that that's only a way that you rally around the interim? What in the world do we do with the Ohio Bobcats who just officially fired their head coach after we were wondering what in the world is happening over there? Okay.

[Tom Fornelli]

You know you need a nip.

[Mackenzie Brooks]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Let's go.

[Ken's Brooks]

Don't give away our secrets, though.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Ken's Brooks]

This is our competition now. We're going head to head with our listeners.

[Bud Elliott]

How many coaches do you know who keep a bottle of bourbon in the office for. For a celebratory drink after a win?

[Chip Patterson]

Bud Elliott.

[Bud Elliott]

This is more than zero, y'.

[Mackenzie Brooks]

All.

[Chip Patterson]

I saw it. I saw a power conference coach bring the red solo cup to a post game press conference this year.

[Bud Elliott]

I've seen some of these dudes roll through Orlando for the Citrus bowl or the Cheese it bowl and the Pop Tar bowl, and like, they're. They're getting a head start, I guarantee you on the win the night before.

[Tom Fornelli]

So listen, we. We Ohio Bobcats, we hold ourselves to a higher standard than the rest of you.

[Chip Patterson]

This is what I was. I'm saying, like, Athens, Ohio, isn't that a party? Like a party town, like a party college?

[Tom Fornelli]

No, it's. It's a fine academic institution is what it is.

[Mackenzie Brooks]

Okay?

[Chip Patterson]

It ain't no Ithaca. That's what I always remember growing up was like. Ithaca was deemed to be like the party central, but I was not allowed to go there. That's so strange. Okay, here is the. The run of show what we got coming for you now. And we're what we got coming up for you over the next couple of days because, yes, we've got our locks coming at you for the College Football Playoff first round. We are also going to give you, you know, classic form, a little bowl nanza, what to watch for in the Xbox Bowl, Myrtle beach bowl, and Gasparilla bowl just to get you all set. Then on Friday night, at the conclusion of Alabama and Oklahoma, we will be live on YouTube.com cover3 with a reaction to that game and an early right off the rip preview of the winner going up against Indiana, the one seed in the Rose Bowl. So that'll be Friday night at the conclusion of that game. Then Saturday night, another instant reaction show at the end of Oregon and James Madison. That one will recap the entire New Year's day action. And excuse me, not New Year's day action, all the action of Saturday. Looking ahead then to the quarterfinal matchups. So we'll get you all of those previews as well as what we saw in those games. But now it's time to turn our attention because it is Thursday and it is 11am Eastern time. I ask you gentlemen, are you all ready to lock it up?

[Tom Fornelli]

Yes, sir.

[Bud Elliott]

Let's go.

[Tom Fornelli]

Since 2005, the under in games between service categories is 49 and 1.

[Ken's Brooks]

Give me an over in this one as well. A little two for one special.

[Bud Elliott]

I was a sicko last week. Y' all were watching the good games. I was live betting the hell out of UL in Kentucky.

[Chip Patterson]

My blue plate special. Five star locks are coming. Five star master lock. Lock it.

[Ken's Brooks]

I'm living and dying.

[Tom Fornelli]

Every, every point, every cover.

[Chip Patterson]

From the locking chair to your eyes and ears, a reminder that locks are sponsored all season long by Cash App. Making money moves should be easy. And that's why there's Cash app. It's fast, safe, and honestly, way more personalized than other apps out there. Our thanks to cash app for sponsoring our season long and postseason including pursuit of the cash app trophy. Thank you to cash app. All right, we begin on Friday night in Norman, Oklahoma. Alabama. Oklahoma. We've seen it once. We'll see it again. Different setting, slightly different circumstances, raised stakes for sure. So it is with great anticipation that I ask who's got a lock?

[Tom Fornelli]

I do.

[Chip Patterson]

Me too on this one. Let me, let me jump out. You may jump in the pool.

[Tom Fornelli]

Go for it.

[Chip Patterson]

Alabama first half. Now you can get a plus one and a half at disrespectful juice for our contest. So I'll take Alabama first half plus a half a point. I think that there is, you know, we talk about Brent Venables and the way that he is able to, you know, organize the defense, the way that he is able to cause some problems and has caused problems for Kalyn Deboer, I think for Kaylin Deboer, for Ryan Grubb for this Alabama offense, there is a little bit of a revenge angle where you take what you've seen and you try to figure out a way to scheme up some easy stuff. For your quarterback who might be going through it a little bit. I think that for Alabama, we have seen throughout the season that some of their best work offensively has been in the earlier parts of games. And when I think about where Brent Venables can give the Sooners an advantage, a lot of it is going to come with wearing them down and getting to the second half and most importantly, making those adjustments to whatever you saw in the first half. And so with a circumstance in a winning position where Alabama leading at halftime, Alabama tied with Oklahoma at halftime. All being ways to win this one. I like Alabama. Kalyn DeBoer on script first half plus a half a point.

[Bud Elliott]

Chip. I am also attacking the first half here. We're going to go first half over 19 and a half. I. I do trust Ben Arbuckle to scheme up some stuff here and I think he's a really good play caller. I also think DeBoer is a really good play caller. I think both teams will try to take some shots early. And so I also wonder if you don't go a little tempo just to like the amount of like, like just awesome blitzes. Oklahoma dials up. If I'm Bama, I want to make them simplify things a little bit. I don't think I'm going to play quite as slow as I've been playing.

[Tom Fornelli]

I got a procedural question for you boys here. Yep, this line has moved a lot lately. What, what's our ruling on pickums?

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, like, is it trading both ways right now? Because I don't wanna.

[Tom Fornelli]

Like there's.

[Bud Elliott]

Are you trying to. Trying to side this?

[Tom Fornelli]

No, no, I'm just saying because there are a couple pickums out there and like I want to take Oklahoma, but I'll take a minus one if I have to. But there are also pickups. So I'm just trying to figure out, you know, because we have the sprinkle segment, is it cool if I take the pick them or do I have to lay the one I'd like? Your vote will be the deciding factor here.

[Bud Elliott]

I'm looking to see who's got pick.

[Ken's Brooks]

I want the same bet. So let's go pick them.

[Chip Patterson]

All right.

[Tom Fornelli]

Well, first of all, what Rivers.

[Ken's Brooks]

All right.

[Chip Patterson]

Bet Rivers is a real block.

[Bud Elliott]

But bet Rivers did one like at one time post some excellent John Mackey award win winner odds. We're gonna go and honor them and say yes.

[Chip Patterson]

So. All right.

[Tom Fornelli]

Danny and I are.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

And what you're mentioning here is that Alabama was minus one and a half until we get a little closer to kickoff limits go up and then it does.

[Ken's Brooks]

Also, our Mason Thomas announced he's not even on the injury report. I think that had something to do with it as well.

[Chip Patterson]

So.

[Ken's Brooks]

So I just look at this team, this Alabama team comes limping into this playoff and I know they're supposed to be getting some guys back. Not LT Overton, though. They're supposed to be getting healthier. I just think this is a team that's been reeling and now you're asking Ty Simpson, that offense to get fixed on the road versus that defense. I don't see it.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah. And I mean, first of all, it's hard to beat a team twice. And even though Oklahoma won the first game, Alabama won that game, they played far better. So, you know, you can throw that out the window because now if Oklahoma plays well. But just mostly, I think we're kind of underestimating the impact of being at home in these games. Like, we saw a huge impact for home teams in the first round last year and obviously some of those were mismatches, so you can't really be sure how the home field impacted it. But I do think having this game in Norman compared to where the regular season was in Tuscaloosa has, is going to have a pretty large impact. I think the extra time Oklahoma has had to prepare for this game and get healthy will have an impact. And I also do, as Danny mentioned, like LT Overton's out for Alabama. We don't know how healthy Ty Simpson is. They weren't able to run the ball at all against him in the first game. And now if they're forced to drop back to pass. This is an Alabama offensive line whose pass protection issues have been getting bigger and bigger. Like Georgia was able to pressure Stimson the entire time and Georgia is not a team that has been a great pass rush all year. So now you get our Mason Thomas back. I think Oklahoma is going to put pressure on Simpson. I don't know if you're going to see as many turnovers as you saw in the first game, but I do bet you see plenty as we do bet you see one or two. So I like Oklahoma at home. So pick them.

[Chip Patterson]

We've. All right, so everyone's got some. Everyone's got a piece there on the locks board while, while we are still sitting here in this matchup. So let's, let's talk out the rest of this. You know, like Bud, do you. I will agree with the home field piece. I mean, I just told you why I was taking Alabama in the first half, but I, I do wonder if we're going to see an electric atmosphere at a stadium that kind of on the sneak. Doesn't, doesn't always get credit for being the home field environment that I think it is for the very biggest games. I mean throughout the Big 12 era. And I've talked about this before, so I apologize for repeating myself, but with the Texas game being in Dallas, Oklahoma didn't always have these huge heavyweight games that were always going to be on their home turf. This one's going to be pretty, pretty bananas. So I'm, I, I guess I would lean a little bit there. And then also the total, I mean 39 and a half kind of what we're staring at right now. What are the other ways that you're.

[Ken's Brooks]

Looking at this one as far as.

[Bud Elliott]

Like, like how to bet it?

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, like I, you, you enter. It's a college football playoff game, right? You know, like we want to like entertain the thoughts, the leans, all the different ways to attack this thing.

[Bud Elliott]

So I, I think because of the quality of defenses here, some of the alts are interesting depending on how they're priced. I know that's, that's kind of a cop out answer, but I do think to your point, this game could be so turnover dependent just because, I mean literally Oklahoma has been extremely turnover dependent to win their last like month of games. So I do think you could see some wild scores in either directions. I, I don't hate some of the, you know, winning by two touchdowns plus type stuff out there which because they feel like the teams are pretty evenly matched and obviously like what we're using what three and a half for, for home field here probably it's a playoff game, everybody's super jacked up.

[Chip Patterson]

Maybe, maybe, you know.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, like regular season. I think most people are using like slightly over two, you know, depending on travel, size, the stadium, etc. But I do think that this is kind of a, again, if you're using a video game slider, you're sliding Oklahoma all the way to the right. Like whatever Oklahoma's max is like you're, you're getting the, the home run effort from the crowd here. But I think with the turnover aspect, because of the random nature of it, you know, it. If you wanted to have some fun. I don't think this is really super plus ev, but you could, you could play both teams to win by 14 plus.

[Chip Patterson]

Can'T lose.

[Bud Elliott]

Well, you could actually. It's a pretty, it's a pretty big.

[Chip Patterson]

No, no, no, Listen, just a 28 point dead window is okay with me. I want to live on the edges, you know, like, this is. Hmm. You've really talked me into something, Danny. Tom, anything else you. And even like I mentioned, I saw in the tailgate a Ty Simpson rushing yards under two and a half. If you want to really play with fire, you know, that could be another, another way to attack this where you obviously college football, you can get some sacks in there and we haven't really seen him be a spring chicken when it comes to breaking loose and getting out and, and stretching his legs. No, not a lot of quarterback designed run, especially if you're concerned about his health. Any other things stand out to you about this particular game?

[Tom Fornelli]

No. I mean, I would point out, like going back to the home field advantage aspect to this. Since 2016, not including the COVID year at home against Power 4 teams, Oklahoma is 32 and 7, which is the 1, 2, 3, 4, the sixth best win percentage for a Power 4 team at home in that span behind Ohio State, Alabama, Oregon, Georgia and Michigan. So it's, it's not easy to go into Norman and beat the Sooners. No matter who you are.

[Chip Patterson]

Danny, anything else you, you. You're looking at for this one.

[Ken's Brooks]

The total is at 39 and a half. It was at 40 and a half, but it's down to 39 and a half.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah, this, this, this is the one game where you have seen a lot of movement.

[Ken's Brooks]

I ain't scared. Give me the under.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh, you're gonna lock it up.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Let's go.

[Ken's Brooks]

I just don't trust either one of these defenses. I think this is going to be one of those games where we talk about how great the defenses are, and I think some of it might be about the offenses not being worth the crap either. So I think you combine those two. The one thing that does worry me is the big six factor. Like, there could be a. There was a pick six in the first one. Todd Simpson threw it. But I just, I think this game is going to be a rock fight.

[Tom Fornelli]

It's the holiday season, so I went and found a 40 for you and put it under the tree.

[Ken's Brooks]

All right, There you go.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, I can't, I can't remember if I had this on our big game breakdown, but I know I've mentioned it later throughout the week, but the disconnect between Isaiah Satania being the SEC's second leading receiver and Oklahoma's being like the second worst offense is very much the boomer bust that you've got in terms of we got one, we Got one play. If the play works once, then we might be able to score a touchdown. That's kind of.

[Ken's Brooks]

You brought it up, too, when we were talking about the kicking game. Wind gusts 20 to 30 miles an hour. Good luck trying to throw the ball.

[Chip Patterson]

All right, that'll be Friday night. Reminder, we will be live at the conclusion of Alabama, Oklahoma, YouTube.com cover3. Then on Saturday, Miami at Texas A and M. College Station seeing some wild promotions. Boy, they're trying to get the party started 9:00am you know, as early as they can. Make sure that the 12th man is about a 12.5 on that. On that impact scale. The line as we're seeing it right now, around three and a half total in this one. Also has been on the move in recent days, taking a little bit of a nose dive. Who's got a lock?

[Tom Fornelli]

I do.

[Bud Elliott]

All right.

[Tom Fornelli]

Happy to see that total moving because it's going the opposite direction of where I want to go. Give me the over 48. I think both of these teams match up well enough on offense to test the defenses in ways that these defenses haven't been tested all that often. I think that if you look at the receivers on both of these teams, neither one of these defenses has faced a team with receivers as good for most of the season. And when they have, I've seen those secondaries get picked apart a little bit. Like, if you go Back to Miami's two losses, both Louisville and SMU had a guy going off for 136 yards through the air against them. I think that Texas A and M has guys who can do that. You look at A M early in the year, yeah, they beat Notre Dame, but they allowed 40 points while doing it. After allowing 24 to UTSA and after allowing, I think, what, 20 something to Utah State, you can spread them out. You can move the ball on this Aggies defense, and I think Miami can do that with their guys. So give me over 48.

[Bud Elliott]

I'm gonna go ahead and take Miami plus three and a half. I just trust Carson Beck more than I trust Marcel Reed. And I don't really love Carson. Carson Beck. I think they're both, like, fine quarterbacks. Not great. Not, you know, awful. I. I do think that Miami has a lot of difference makers on defense. I think Keonte Scott's back, so is Frederic, and that's a pretty big, important part of that Miami defense. I think they can get home with four. Even though I like the A and M offensive line, and I think that gives them more guys to. To Combat the screen game that A and M, you know, likes to run out there. So I'm gonna go ahead and take the Hurricanes here.

[Chip Patterson]

The quality of the competition should be taken into consideration because the sample set I'm talking about is Syracuse, North Carolina State, Virginia Tech and Pitt. But Carson Beck had a good bounce back after the SMU game. I thought those last four games I thought he played well, I thought he was efficient, thought he was effective. And I agree with you, Tom. I think that the Hurricanes are going to be able to move the football against this Texas A M defense. Went back to the Mike Elko postgame press conference after Texas. He's. He was very, very disappointed. You know, he called it one of the worst halves of Texas A and M football they played all season. He said we couldn't get aligned. Our eyes were in the wrong place. The defensive breakdowns, particularly when it comes to run defense that this Texas A and M team had, you know, really had him considering whether they are asking too much of their players. We spent a lot of time talking about Cassius, how we didn't spend a ton of time talking about this secondary as like one of the best units. I think they're going to have trouble being able to keep their eyes on Malachi, Tony and all the different ways they can move them around. I lean your way with the full game, but I found a number that I like. How about Miami team total over 22 and a half. Got to get 23 points from an offense that I think is going to be able to move the ball pretty effectively. But I lean your way too as well in terms of getting Miami plus the three and a half. They are my picks to win the game. But for locks purposes, I'm going to lock in that Miami team total as the. As the best bet here.

[Bud Elliott]

I don't hate that at all.

[Ken's Brooks]

I'm in lock agreement with Bud.

[Chip Patterson]

You know, we, we have been, we have been correctly pigeonholed as a Miami Hurricanes podcast.

[Ken's Brooks]

That's right.

[Chip Patterson]

We have always been a Miami Hurricanes podcast for sure.

[Ken's Brooks]

As soon as they were bowl eligible and made my preseason take, you know, go extinct further, that's in the rear view. I've jumped on this bandwagon. I think it's interesting because Texas A and M's defense, they are so, so good, right? But if we looked at how they've done against the better offenses that they faced, primarily Notre Dame, even against Arkansas, where I know they had the lead, but Taylor Green's a pretty good weapon and that's about the list Texas also put up a bunch of points on them. I think Miami will score, and I think Miami's defense will have the type of guys that it will take to contain Marcel Reed. Keep him in the pocket, trying to friend him from killing you with his legs. So I like Miami getting the three and a half too.

[Bud Elliott]

I mean, against Power 5 competition, Marcel Reed is 13 to 9, touchdown, interception.

[Chip Patterson]

And when it comes to explosive run plays allowed, only Arkansas and Mississippi State have given up more run plays of 10 plus yards than Texas A M's defense.

[Bud Elliott]

That's interesting. I'm trying to think here. So LSU hit a couple big ones, Texas hit a couple big ones, Arkansas hit a. Arkansas hit like one or two bigs, I believe. I thought Petrino called his ass off in that game. By the way.

[Chip Patterson]

They'Ve given up 58 run plays of 10 plus more or more.

[Bud Elliott]

You know, I was thinking like, he's on the market now. Chip.

[Chip Patterson]

I. Oh, I. Listen, Tyler Thompson was. Tyler Thompson was one of the best defenders for North Carolina. And you know, it was reported this week that Tyler Thompson's likely hitting the portal. And it's disappointing because he was a holdover from the Mac Brown era who bought into the new regime and he played really, really well this season. I just have to assume they're letting him walk to save up the money. Cannon for Bobby Petrino, because surely if there are no Belichicks or Lombardi's left, we must go to Bobby Petrino. That is the next best thing for North Carolina football.

[Bud Elliott]

First of all, like, I would hire Petrino as my OC in an instant. As my head coach. I would have, like, major reservations. That guy can still design offense and call offense for sure. Also, we know that Belichick has admired this offense before. You know who he took out of this offense like a decade ago?

[Chip Patterson]

Mallet.

[Bud Elliott]

Ryan Mallet.

[Mackenzie Brooks]

Yep.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Tom Fornelli]

We also know that Bobby and Bill have similar interests.

[Bud Elliott]

This is correct. Yeah, this is correct. They both like, you know, playing on the chalkboard, playing with chalk. Yeah. Any.

[Chip Patterson]

Any. Any other, any other locks or any other plays to, to. To tackle on this one?

[Bud Elliott]

I like your team total play.

[Chip Patterson]

Do you.

[Bud Elliott]

I'm not locking it up, but I, I'd rather just take the three and a half.

[Chip Patterson]

The. How does, how does Texas A M win this one big? Like if this one is just the.

[Tom Fornelli]

Interception bug, Carson Beck starts throwing the ball to the other team a lot.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah.

[Tom Fornelli]

Same way with Miami.

[Bud Elliott]

Go back to the, to the. Go back to the Louisville loss. I think two of those picks were on Carson and the two that were on him I think were pretty bad. I do think the other two were probably on the receiver. Like the route adjustment that the receiver made to the coverage doesn't make any sense.

[Ken's Brooks]

I mean, that's what you pick in overtime. The receiver was kind of giving ground, let the guy come underneath them. I mean, you still, you don't try to make that throw in that situation. You just kick the field goal and go to, you know, another overtime. But it wasn't like he's played a lot better this year.

[Tom Fornelli]

I like.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, I would agree.

[Chip Patterson]

I liked Tom Shout. I think it was on the CBS Sports Network show CJ Daniels. Wasn't that where you mentioned. Yeah, that could be. This is what Miami needs, a big C.J. daniels game. A little bit of balance to spread Texas A M out, open everything up when you got to worry about Tony, got to worry about Daniels, and let. Let Beck be able to see things a little bit more so it doesn't get cloudy. Because as we've known, not just from last this season, but especially last season when it was what, like 12 interceptions in a six game span? Like when the interceptions come, they come in a flurry and he's just not seeing it. By the way, another piece of that Mike Elko postgame press conference. I was just referencing him talking about Marcel Reed not seeing it. He used a phrase that made total sense and I just, I hadn't always heard it. He said he was seeing gray. Have y' all heard that before?

[Bud Elliott]

Seeing gray.

[Chip Patterson]

It's like it's not black and white. Yeah, Marcel Reed's looking at the coverage and it's not black and white. He's. He's seeing gray. And the end zone interception. He said he was like, he put it in the wrong place, you know, Thought we did a pretty good job with Marcel. Marcel helping protect him early, but then he got the ankle, you know, and then all of a sudden he just didn't stop seeing it. So I expect Marcel Reed to be full health. He needs obviously the mobility to be super effective. That'd be a huge thing to watch in a very fun game to get your day started with the College Football Playoff first round coming up on the other side, more of our locks for the CFP first round and more next.

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[Chip Patterson]

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[Tom Fornelli]

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[Chip Patterson]

Back here on the COVID 3 podcast as we continue to roll through our locks for the College Football Playoff first round. We turn our attention now to the afternoon action from Oxford, Mississippi as Ole Miss will play host to two lane. It's another rematch. Unlike Alabama Oklahoma, the first game wasn't close. 45 to 10. The Rebels were winners against two lane. They marched right through this two lane defense, scored on their first five possessions, didn't even punt till the third quarter and Jake Red's laugh was horrendous. 5 for 17 for 56 yards. Wound up getting benched in that game. Now a lot has changed. Tulane's got a trophy in the trophy case after winning the American. Ole Miss doesn't have Lane. Kiffin still has Charlie Weiss Jr. And a few other future LSU coaches who are acting as Ole Miss coaches in this game. This will be the first game of the Pete Golding era. Rebels heavy favorites in this game. So I'm curious by this one who's got a lockdown?

[Bud Elliott]

All right. Going first half over 29. I do think that the way Ole Miss played Tulane last last time and the way that some other teams have played Tulane with tempo has been effective against this green wave defense and I don't think that they're going to change that. That fits kind of right into what Ole Miss is comfortable with doing. I do think that both secondaries here are kind of the weaknesses for the teams and so I do like Ole Miss to score early here and I think that just the number of possessions in this one will give Tulane a chance to score as well in the first half. So over 29 for me.

[Tom Fornelli]

I'm a long similar line. Taking it a different way though. Give me the Ole Miss team total over 36 and a half because I do think the one thing from that first game that you can't ignore, like, even if Tulane plays better offensively, you can't just ignore the fact that that defense didn't get any stops in the game. Really. I've mentioned it. They had 10 actual possessions. Ole Miss scored on eight of them. Twice they got stopped for field goals in the red zone. So theoretically they probably could have scored like 50 something points in this game had they finished those drives. Just maybe Tulane does better offensively. Maybe Jake Retzlaff doesn't start over nine. But either way, I feel comfortable that Ole Miss, even without Lane Kip in there, is going to approach 40 points in this game. So over 36 and a half.

[Bud Elliott]

We also have a dental health update here. Oh. Headed to my first playoff game tomorrow. There are plenty of questions and I really have no idea what to expect and I really have no idea what to expect from Ole Miss, but I do think this team is ready to put the noise aside and play football. I expect a really amped up Ole Miss team coming out the gates. So give me Ole Miss first half team total over 20 and a half tooth emoji, lock emoji. But I am nervous and he did a little like the kind of like the. Is it gritting the teeth or. Gritting the teeth with like the. The big smile, but it's not actually curved like a smile. You know what I mean? What, what is that?

[Tom Fornelli]

The Nervous?

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, nervous, nervous.

[Bud Elliott]

I'm trying to figure out what you type in for them. I'm not very good at emojis, whatever that is. Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

If. If you voice to texted emojis, I would take that in the group.

[Bud Elliott]

So Boomer with that voice detect, like back when my phone screen was jacked, like it was. We had like a six week thing.

[Chip Patterson]

It was like, God, like I want to see the words like nervous face emoji. You know, like, If nothing else, I would enjoy that. You know, it would bring joy to my day to see what you were going for there.

[Ken's Brooks]

I think you guys are all overthinking this. Just lay the points, Just gonna lay them. I think Ole Miss is the better team. We already saw it once. I think they are. I think there is an aspect to the. They could come together, you know, us against the world. Like, you know, we're gonna, we're gonna be fired up. I don't think the loss of Lane Kiffin means that much. What I'm probably more worried about is players being distracted. Are they going to lsu? But I don't know if you have to worry about that in this game. It's not close enough to the portal yet. So I think Ole Miss takes care of business.

[Chip Patterson]

I, I mean what about Tulane? Who's, where am I going to be next year? Yeah, I mean who's, who's going to Florida? Where, where are we going to go? If you, because we've always said if you, if you make all conference in one of these conferences, if you are on the conference championship winning team, you're probably not there next year. So yeah, I mean Tulane might not be going to Florida, but I get, I guarantee you that Tulane's representation are getting their own, their own calls and their own interest. I mean this is a chaotic external factors game. I do think that once the game starts everyone will be able to settle in and we'll just be, we'll be off and running. But yeah, I, I dock both teams, you know, for just overall impossible to ignore all the extraneous factors that are going on here. Very difficult game. Any other, any other angles on this one?

[Bud Elliott]

I, I do wonder like if Ole Miss gets up big in this, is there really any incentive for them to keep hammer down?

[Chip Patterson]

Yes.

[Bud Elliott]

Which is what?

[Chip Patterson]

Just I'm Pete Golding and I am here mfer like I, they're just, we are going to continue because we're going to be aggressive. I mean they keep score for a reason. You know, like it all of his messaging. I mean it is, yes, there is a hundred percent incentive to be as aggressive and win by as many points as possible. And every fan in there would want them to do that. There's not. You got a long time before you have to go and play Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. So yeah, I would, if I was Pete Golding, I would, I would stay aggressive and I would try to put together the kind of sticker shock score that is gonna last with Ole Miss fans for a long time.

[Tom Fornelli]

An emotional exorcism for Oxford, Mississippi.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Ken's Brooks]

Last time all gathered together and at the Grove. Send them off. Yeah, yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

I, I, I, I like that. I, I don't know about, I like that, but I can envision that probably more than any other, any other outcome. All right, then we get to the prime time slate. James Madison, 12th seed in the bracket, heading out to Eugene Austin Stadium, take on the Oregon Ducks. Oregon Ducks, heavy favorites in this game. Who's got a lock?

[Bud Elliott]

Sorry, guys, for, for safety.

[Ken's Brooks]

That's very well done.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, let me see here. We got some options. We have smiles here. All right, we are going to go. James Madison under six and a half. First half Points, team total. I respect James Madison's defense a whole lot. I think it's really good. I think their offense is hot garbage. So I don't, I, I think Oregon comes out, shuts him down offensively. Wouldn't shock me if, you know, James Madison gives Oregon some problems offensively for a little bit. So JMU team total first half under.

[Chip Patterson]

And you said six and a half.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Fight.

[Ken's Brooks]

Fight.

[Tom Fornelli]

Fight.

[Chip Patterson]

Oregon might be a little sleepy. You know, all it's going to take is one. One busted coverage, one misalignment, Wayne Knight breaks loose, we lull you to sleep. You know, we're just like, hey, come on. You know, just don't worry about this. And then, then you rip off an explosive play. One touchdown in 30 minutes for the Sun Belt champs. Yeah, I, I, I, I like that a lot. So, yeah, we're, we'll, we'll, I'll take the other side of that one. I think that if Oregon does not come out with the type of like merciless, pull you apart by the limbs behavior that they did to Oklahoma State. Right. Like that they have done before. I, I think, I think that James Madison has been a good enough team. I think they have good enough coaching to be able to, to go and find the end zone once. So yeah. At six and a half. Let's go. JMU team total over.

[Tom Fornelli]

Wow.

[Bud Elliott]

I did not think we would have a first half team total fight.

[Tom Fornelli]

Did not.

[Bud Elliott]

But we do.

[Tom Fornelli]

Did you have. I'm sorry. Did I didn't, I didn't. I don't know if I missed it. Do you have a lock for all Ms. Tulane?

[Chip Patterson]

No lock. I might have something on that later.

[Tom Fornelli]

All right, cool. My lock for this game. Let me see where we're at. Hold on, hold on. Make sure there hasn't been any movement. Yeah, give me the under 47 and a half. Been kind of hinting at it most of the week. I just feel like either Oregon blows the doors off of James Madison and packs it up because they are still banged up and they're more concerned about going on to face Texas Tech in the second round, or James Madison is effective at what they're trying to do, which is run the ball and their defense is doing a decent enough job of slowing down the Ducks to keep this lower scoring and limit overall position sessions. So I think under 47 and a half is the best way to attack this game.

[Ken's Brooks]

Danny, you guys are overthinking it again. I will just lay the points with the Ducks.

[Chip Patterson]

Is it?

[Ken's Brooks]

Can I get 20 and a half.

[Tom Fornelli]

That'S too heavily juiced. Let me see. All right, there's a 20 and a half. There's one I can find for you out here.

[Ken's Brooks]

All right, perfect. I don't mean to be an elitist, but I do feel like these teams are just that much better when it comes to a power ranking. And I think the trenches are where you'll see the biggest difference in both of these games. Oregon's offensive and defensive lines should be able to control anything James Madison is trying to do. I'm very curious to see what of these weapons, if any because there's a chance they might rest them another week. But I, I'll be curious to see who comes back for this one at wide receiver. I think their defense is probably still underrated as you guys had in your side bet. I'd probably lean towards Bud. I don't trust Alonzo Barnett and this atmosphere. I think it's all Oregon, Oregon roles.

[Bud Elliott]

You know, where they're not resting guys on defense. Yeah, right. I think it's super encouraging. We saw photos of those guys back at practice though. Yeah, like I just, I don't know if they're going to play. Do you need them?

[Chip Patterson]

Probably not.

[Bud Elliott]

You might though. I mean look, it's, it's one game do. I think Oregon probably shuts them down pretty easily? I do. That's why I bet the JMU team total under again in a one game scenario stuff can happen. I think the gripes more like you didn't beat a single top 50 team this year and you're in the like the national playoff. But I do think Oregon's defense will be prepped for this. Yep.

[Chip Patterson]

There was some, some commentary in the tailgate. My, my third quarter teams all got buys. That's why they got buys. They, they win the most important quarters. You know, Indiana is a fourth quarter, Ohio State's the third quarter, Georgia's the third quarter. So yeah, yeah, I can't. Can't lean too heavy. Then it's reckless, then it's not a lock. What is a lock? James Madison first half team total over six and a half. Now that's a lock. Okay. Now that's something that you can go and you can put your money on. Okay. Any other, let's see, is there any other way to attack it, lock or not for this one. Before we do a quick review of the action we got on the board.

[Bud Elliott]

Will note all those 19 and a half got blasted for the, for the Bama first half over.

[Tom Fornelli]

I would maybe consider for this game like rushing Overs for Oregon's running backs, if you can find those player prop markets. Because I do feel like Oregon's going to hand the ball off quite a bit in this one. Might get some explosives.

[Bud Elliott]

I wonder what.

[Tom Fornelli]

What uniforms they'll wear Green with yellow. They tweeted it last night like.

[Bud Elliott]

Like this color green.

[Tom Fornelli]

Like that color. Yellow. Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

All right, let's review what we've got on the board for our first round in the CFP. Bud Scott, Alabama, Oklahoma first half over 19 and a half. Miami plus three and a half. James Madison first half team total under six and a half and Ole Miss two. Lane first half over 29. I'm on Alabama first half plus a half a point. Miami team total over 22 and a half. And James Madison first half team total over six and a half. Danny's got Oklahoma, pick them up. Miami plus three and a half. Oklahoma, Alabama under 40, Ole Miss minus 17 and a half and Oregon minus 20 and a half. And Tom Scott, Oklahoma pick them. Texas A and Miami over 48. Ole Miss team total over 36 and a half. And the Oregon, James Madison under 47 and a half. And those were. Where are we? Those were the locks. Sponsored by Cash app. As you heard me say at the top of the show, new cash app users can use our code to get free money. Use our code cover three, send $5 to a friend within 14 days and you'll get $10 right in your account. Thank you to Cash App. And coming up on the other side, our money line, sprinkles for college football playoff first round. Plus storylines, matchups to watch it and maybe even a few leans are best bets for the Xbox Bowl, Myrtle Beach Bowl, Gasparilla Bowl. It's bonanza and more next. Back here on the COVID 3 podcast. And now it's time for Moneyline sprinkles brought to you by FanDuel. Play your game. All right, so we've already discussed the. There's a pick them for one of these games, which then means we turn our attention to Miami, Texas A and M and Tulane Ole Miss as well as jmu Oregon. So what are we sprinkling, bud?

[Bud Elliott]

So does Bama qualify as a sprinkle?

[Chip Patterson]

I always thought we said it's gotta be a plus money, right? Like you gotta at least be at the plus 100.

[Bud Elliott]

So we can't sprinkle the Bama game.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, because that'd be what? Ah, there's a plus.

[Ken's Brooks]

They're plus 100, aren't they?

[Chip Patterson]

All right, let's grab it.

[Bud Elliott]

All right, Alabama +102 is pretty much.

[Tom Fornelli]

Chasing those big dogs.

[Ken's Brooks]

I'll take the Canes. I'll take the Canes to win outright. Told Mario I thought he could do some damage if they got in. I think they're gonna see this like new lease on life. Like, hey, we have this opportunity. Let's make the most of it. I think Texas A and M is a little bit fraudulent from their schedule. You mentioned you have to take the opponents into consideration because of the back end of Miami schedule. I think that's the case for most of Texas A and M schedule as well. Playing the bottom dwellers in the sec. I think they got exposed against Texas. I think it happens again.

[Chip Patterson]

Tom.

[Tom Fornelli]

I am going to go with. Let's see here to Lane plus 700 and James Madison plus 1200.

[Chip Patterson]

I will take the, I'll take the Miami Hurricanes. They are my pick to win, so I'm definitely going to throw them down on the moneyline. Sprinkle. So clearly the three and a half two. If you wanted to play that, I'll throw my support there and then it gets me to my. Wouldn't it be hilarious of the week? Because the. Wouldn't it be hilarious? Isn't James Madison. No, no, no, no. Because that's just like going to be isolated to massive like negatively charged Oregon fallout after a second straight one and done right. Like, oh man, we have to look like are they a little bit like fraud? Lots of, lots of talk there and I don't even know, like, there would be a lot of rush to be able to, to celebrate the, the JMU and the Cinderella. But that wouldn't really be like a hilarious. No, hilarious is Lane Kiffin being deprived of a playoff bonus paid out because Pete Golding and his own future offensive coordinator couldn't get the job done against Tulane When Lane was there, they won by 35. What happens if they lose by three? Like, what does Charlie Weiss Jr's office look like when he comes back to Baton Rouge after failing to score enough points to beat Tulane? I mean, does he even make it into the office or does he press the key card and go does all of a sudden he shows up to work. What do you want? The funniest outcome here is 2 lane beating ole Miss after all of the emotional, like, drama that in the soap opera that was Elaine Kiffin exodus. Sorry, Bud.

[Bud Elliott]

No, I'm saying like, like, what do you want to bet LSU pays in the bonus anyway if Ole Miss actually loses this game?

[Chip Patterson]

I don't.

[Tom Fornelli]

I wouldn't, I wouldn't they're like, hey.

[Bud Elliott]

Bro, we're guarantee you everything. Like, you know, the, the bonus is guaranteed too, I bet.

[Tom Fornelli]

No, I think Governor Landry has made it very clear that the state of Louisiana is done paying these bonus.

[Ken's Brooks]

The fiscal irresponsibility is done. It's a, that's a, that's a previous era, not anymore.

[Tom Fornelli]

New era. This is for the people of Louisiana.

[Bud Elliott]

Can we talk about Tom's excellent tweet this morning, by the way?

[Chip Patterson]

Is this.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, sorry.

[Chip Patterson]

Is it. Is this a tied to Moneyline sprinkle?

[Bud Elliott]

It is not.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay. Oh, then let's just put a bubble. Let's review the money line sprinkles that we've got for the College Football Playoff first round. Bud is going with Alabama plus 102. Now I've got Miami plus 150 and Tulane plus 700. Danny is going to take Miami plus 150 and Tom's going with the big dogs going Tulane plus 700 and JMU plus 1200. And those were the Moneyline sprinkles brought to you by FanDuel. Play your game. All right, do us which tweet.

[Bud Elliott]

His tweet about the. The playoff format from like, Tom, explain this to everybody. This would have been wild.

[Tom Fornelli]

I, I just tweeted because I feel like it hadn't been mentioned. It got lost. If what the playoff bracket would have looked like using last year's seating rules in which Tulane would have had a first round buy and been the 4 seed, which would have left Ohio State as the 5 seed playing James Madison in the first round. Which means if Ohio State somehow survived James Madison and won that game, they would have advanced to face Tulane in the second round.

[Ken's Brooks]

Has Ryan Day said it, like campaign? It's that we need to go back to the old.

[Tom Fornelli]

That's what Ryan Day should have been doing all damn week. It should be like, you know what? Conference champions deserve these buys.

[Bud Elliott]

Wow. That would have set like an all time record, I think, for like combined spread of the first two round games.

[Tom Fornelli]

Because like there was the talk last year about is the 5 seed better than the 1 seed this year the 5 seed would have been much better than the 1 seed because Indiana would be sitting there waiting to face A and M or Oklahoma.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, Steve Sarkeesian's even like taking. He's, he's, he's got out the tinfoil for CFP and on when he's like, we just need to know what the protocol is. And then we need to know that the committee members have agreed to the Protocol. So if we could get. Now I'm actually going off on my own now. If we could get sworn affidavits from the committee members and we know that they've agreed to the protocols. I mean he's, he's, he's starting to point the finger at Wesley Walls and Carla Williams and I don't. And Mark Harlan, you know, and, and I don't know if I like that. I think that's disrespectful to Mark Dantonio and Chris Alton. Mike Riley, you know, Steve Sarkeesian is questioning the integrity of the College Football Playoff selection committee. After all the time that they have done to give to this sport. Come on, Steve, you're bigger than that. You're better than that.

[Tom Fornelli]

A Mount Rushmore College Football Playoff.

[Chip Patterson]

Rushmore College Football Playoff selection committee. That is right. Well, I did promise and I know that the tailgate was asking a look at some of the bowl games that we will have before we join you again. That will include the Xbox bowl on Thursday night. Missouri State against Arkansas State. Any. Anything that you got your eyes on with this one?

[Tom Fornelli]

The Xbox. Boy, you think Butch Jones doesn't know what buttons to push? Give me the Red Wolves minus one and a half against Missouri State and its first ever bowl game, but without its head coach. He's on his way to Coastal Carolina.

[Chip Patterson]

And if Bobby's in Chapel Hill, then he's close to Ryan in Conway.

[Tom Fornelli]

Family.

[Chip Patterson]

Family. We're going for a family atmosphere here. Yeah, I was going back and looking at. Butch Jones did find a way during his time at Tennessee to win a bowl game to really get the hype machine going. Right. He, they'd go 8 and 4. He'd win that bowl game. They'd finish with nine wins and they'd finish number 23 the AP Top 25 poll. Now finishing 7 and 6 at Arkansas State's not going to get you 23 in the AP Top 25 poll. That's a man who knows the value of a bowl win to take into the off season. I'm with you, Tom. I think the Red Wolves got that.

[Ken's Brooks]

Was that the peak of the turnover trash can?

[Chip Patterson]

Probably the turnover trash can. And brick by brick, that's the other five star hearts.

[Ken's Brooks]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah. Well, all those, those wonderful gems of the put shown, Sarah. Then on Friday a couple of games that will play your way into Friday nights. Alabama, Oklahoma. First the Myrtle beach bowl, which is a really, really good game. I know 11am in Myrtle beach is not where you expect to see championship caliber football, but that's what we have. The Kennesaw State winners of Conference usa. Western Michigan winners of the Mac. We don't have coaching turnover here. Right. I'm expecting that. We should be getting full effort and, and now I, I'm just curious what, what y' all got your eyes on? Who you think wins?

[Tom Fornelli]

This is what a real playoff game would look like. Conference champions duking it out.

[Ken's Brooks]

I like that.

[Tom Fornelli]

I, I really like Kennesaw State this year. I think Western Michigan has gotten better as the year went on, but I, I feel like three points. I'll take that with the Owls.

[Chip Patterson]

Any liens?

[Tom Fornelli]

No, no.

[Bud Elliott]

Yeah, they just posted them.

[Chip Patterson]

Sorry.

[Bud Elliott]

I was looking for these. I think some of the altovers in the Xbox are worth a shot. I know we're on the next one, but I just found them that could get really pointy.

[Chip Patterson]

I could see that. I mean not definitely not a lot.

[Tom Fornelli]

Of video game football. Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Hey. Whoa.

[Ken's Brooks]

How many times are we gonna there. How many times we're gonna hear the.

[Chip Patterson]

Remind me at the Xbox bowl next year that we're betting blind betting the overs.

[Ken's Brooks]

Oh, we hit the circle square button.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Oh gosh. Who's.

[Ken's Brooks]

How many times.

[Tom Fornelli]

I don't know who's calling the game. It's not going to be Barry though because he just did the the Cure bowl or not the curable. He did the Ventures bowl the other night.

[Chip Patterson]

Okay. Then. Then in the afternoon little Dave Doran going up against Memphis obviously. Ryan Silverfield off to Arkansas. CJ Bailey works back maybe play in this game because this thing was at six and a half about a week ago. I'm looking at it at four. C.J. bailey will be going home after this game to consider his future.

[Tom Fornelli]

To be fair, Chip, that line might have moved as the correction of Ryan Silverfield leaving. Sorry, just. Just a joke. Just a joke.

[Chip Patterson]

So NC State, Memphis. What we thought? What we think?

[Bud Elliott]

If I had to, I think I'd play NC State but I, I, I don't have to so I'm not playing anything in this game but like if for pick and pull type stuff, I, I don't mind.

[Tom Fornelli]

NC State 57 1/2 feels a little high. Oh, I might like the under here. Again, these are just, these are not locks. These are sure things. So. Yeah, the Hunter.

[Chip Patterson]

Danny, you got any lean there?

[Ken's Brooks]

Acc, let's go. They're gonna rep in bowl season.

[Chip Patterson]

Dave Doran. Dave Doran has lost five straight bowl games. Like and, and that's almost a reason for me to think okay, Salty Dave, you know he might he he might need to have a little. Have a little bit of juice. He already popped off on some of the media members for talking about the idea that he was going to walk off and retire at the end of this year. He didn't like that. It might have energized him even more. So he's already committed to year 14. North Carolina State is committed to him for year 14. Let's see if he reverses that recent trend that has become very frustrating for Wolfpack fans that he takes them up to the highs of beating Carolina and then drops them off the edge with a bowl game loss. Sometimes you're a group of five team.

[Tom Fornelli]

It can't overlook, like, the momentum that a Gasparilla bowl win gives a program heading into the off season.

[Chip Patterson]

Well, I, I also just don't want everybody at their, you know, holiday season at all the holiday events bad mouthing me. You know, not necessarily a must win. Definitely a don't lose from a fan base vibes perspective. So, yeah, those. That'll be the action that gets you into Alabama and Oklahoma on Friday night. All right, that was good. All right, Friday night we will be back 11:30pm Eastern time around those parts, basically at the conclusion of Alabama and Oklahoma to be able to recap that game. Look ahead to the quarterfinal action between Indiana and the winner Saturday night. If. If Bud's right, maybe we go early. I don't know. Turn your notifications on. We'll see.

[Tom Fornelli]

I think we should wait until all games are finished on Saturday, both college and pro life.

[Bud Elliott]

Oh, yeah, this is. Tom loves the placement of this. He can actually watch his Bears. Yeah, I have exos. I can watch every single snap of this organ jam. You gave him 25 minutes. Get ready on here. Talk about it. I don't need to listen to the announcers.

[Tom Fornelli]

I gotta. No, no. I just. I feel like for. For our viewership numbers, it would be better to wait for the NFL game to be over, not just for me.

[Chip Patterson]

Tailgate, let us know. Should we go. Should we wait till the Bears game is over? Should we just. Should we just let it rip as.

[Tom Fornelli]

Soon as Matt Davis is making a great point in the chat. Listen.

[Chip Patterson]

What?

[Bud Elliott]

I'm worried, man. I'm worried about people using that game and be like, all right, I'm gonna make sure my sleep score is really good on my aura ring or my WAP or whatever. No free ads. Whatever your sleep sc. Good night, y'.

[Chip Patterson]

All.

[Bud Elliott]

And so like, that's why I'm a little like our. Our enemy isn't the other Shows here. It's the pillow. That's why I want to go live. Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

So we'll. Saturday night, YouTube.com cover3. Be sure to go and turn your notifications on Friday night. Saturday night, double reaction weekend. We're excited to bring it to you here. Taking care of the college football Playoff. Oh, George Sedano on the Xbox bowl call. He might give us a little. A little XY B. Definitely a B button on the first spin move. Yeah, no question. That's on the bingo.

[Bud Elliott]

Cardbox has B button.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah.

[Bud Elliott]

Okay. That's right. I'm trying to think about the controllers, the shapes.

[Chip Patterson]

Shapes are PlayStation. That'd be your circle. Anyway, be back. Okay.

[Ken's Brooks]

Do you see the chat?

[Tom Fornelli]

I do see it. What am I looking at?

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. One second.

[Tom Fornelli]

Oh, oh, that chat. I was looking at the other chat.

[Chip Patterson]

All right. We have finally, finally been let back in. We were held out for so long, we were banned. But we're back into the club. Yes. Yes. Mackenzie Brooks Club Kansas open. Thanks for letting us back in.

[Mackenzie Brooks]

You know, I thought an end of the season treat, you know, everybody gets in the club at the end of the season. No big deal. Holiday special. Just had to squeak my way back in before it all comes to a close.

[Chip Patterson]

So what do we. What do we like? What are we locking up? What are our best bets for the first round?

[Mackenzie Brooks]

Okay, as far as the closer games, Oklahoma Moneyline. I do not believe in Ty Simpson under pressure. I'm sure you guys talked about this a ton. I just feel like Oklahoma is going to be a nightmare. It's not going to be the SEC championship caliber smackdown. But Ty Simpson under pressure like Oklahoma is going to be a similar situation. Also to the not so pretty games. Oregon first half spread -11 and a half versus JMU. Because who knows what they're going to do in general. They kind of let up in the third and fourth quarter. Like even in the regular season. I feel like they might just run the ball or sick guys if they want people to stay healthy. So I feel like we just attacked the first quarter's first halves in those games. And eleven and a half feels like a very doable number for a team that does like to start hot. Also, bug question for you. Aren't they getting some receivers back?

[Bud Elliott]

So they're practicing. We're just not sure that they're going to play them because they're, you know, 21 and a half point.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah. What's the point? It's a playoff game, Kens.

[Bud Elliott]

It deserves respect.

[Chip Patterson]

Yes, that's right.

[Mackenzie Brooks]

Miami. This is true. I'm gonna have to die in the soapbox. I started in July. I would love to see them get smacked around in College Station for sure. And Carson back to interceptions.

[Ken's Brooks]

No, but don't you want to see them? Don't they have a round two matchup? Couldn't we see Georgia? Miami? That would be more fun.

[Mackenzie Brooks]

Yeah, but Miami would have to beat Ohio State.

[Tom Fornelli]

Yeah.

[Ken's Brooks]

Oh, yeah.

[Mackenzie Brooks]

Listen, if that's. If that's the surefire plot, then, yes, I'm in.

[Chip Patterson]

That's. That's. Stars. Ohio State. Yeah. Ohio State in the Cotton bowl on New Year's Eve. Would be quite a moment to be able to set that up.

[Mackenzie Brooks]

And I really want to go to Arizona. If it's Georgia. Ohio State out there, that'll be really cool.

[Ken's Brooks]

Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

Have you been to the Fiesta Bowl?

[Mackenzie Brooks]

No, but last time Georgia and Ohio State played, I was boots on ground in Atlanta with my good friend Taft over here. And that missed field goal. Clock strikes. Midnight fireworks go off. Bulldogs advance. That was top five moments of my life. Probably top three. I mean that.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, I know.

[Bud Elliott]

And we believe you.

[Chip Patterson]

Yeah, we believe you 100%.

[Ken's Brooks]

You know why Ken's is back?

[Bud Elliott]

You're.

[Ken's Brooks]

You've been motivated by Kirby Smart's intensity at practice.

[Mackenzie Brooks]

That's true.

[Ken's Brooks]

The video, that was epic. I mean, he's MF and coaches.

[Mackenzie Brooks]

I truly trust that man with my life, like, every single Saturday. Like, Ken's. How do you feel? I'm, like, as cool as Kirby does every time.

[Chip Patterson]

Guys, in the sec, it's hard. Okay. It's hard to win a game in this conference.

[Mackenzie Brooks]

Yeah. Of course I'm gonna name my dog Kirby when I get one eventually in my life.

[Chip Patterson]

Better be a Bulldog.

[Mackenzie Brooks]

Potentials. Yeah.

[Chip Patterson]

All right, so we've got. We're going with the Oklahoma money line. You've got a little Oregon first half. What are the leans for you on. On the other two games? And obviously, you said Texas A M by a billion.

[Mackenzie Brooks]

Yeah. I mean, in all seriousness, with Texas A M, like, I hate that there's a hook. I would love if it was three if. I would love to just take that money line, parlay it with something else.

[Bud Elliott]

There's three out there, and there's like, three minus 15.

[Mackenzie Brooks]

All right, I'm in on that. I just feel like Marcel Reed, like, he can extend plays. He can get in the end zone with his feet. Carson Beck can't do it. Like, other things all equal. Like, I just like Marcel Reed more in that situation. Also at home at noon. Like, that's like so not Carson Beck's vibe. I think he's going to be a little, a little struck by the situation at hand.

[Tom Fornelli]

11Am in College Station Carson might not even be awake yet.

[Chip Patterson]

Look, hey, I saw that man go to Blacksburg and Pittsburgh in November with all of the Miami in November trends that should say that they go lay an egg. And he threw for 10 yards and attempt in both those games.

[Mackenzie Brooks]

Listen, like this is the game to shut up people like myself for the next nine years or to just like prove the point that is to be proven. Like this will be ACC versus sec, no doubt. And like how those stars on Miami look versus this caliber of play, which I'm so willing to be wrong on. I think it's going to be. This is a very like poetic game for just the overall vibes of college football. Like there's a lot more on the line than just this specific college football game. So I'm very excited to see how that goes. But for the other games, Tulane and Ole Miss, we were looking at the over and I looked at Ole Miss team total over but I think I'd rather just take the over because Ole Miss kind of lets up points and other defensive coordinators or head coach.

[Chip Patterson]

Yep.

[Mackenzie Brooks]

And like even I don't know, there was barely passing touchdowns coming from the kid when he was playing good SEC teams. But against Mississippi State and then all the non SEC teams, they were playing like he was lighting everyone up. So I feel like that's just a lean.

[Chip Patterson]

So we've got you. We've got you as as you wrap up the this at least as we get this. So we after Notre Dame team total over 41 and a half, Iowa State plus one and a half and Memphis minus three and a half couldn't come home for you or come we're getting out with Oklahoma moneyline, Oregon first half minus 11 and a half and Texas a M minus three. Right. I just want to make sure that you understand that the picks you're given are being documented. You know, we've got full transparency there. All right, cool.

[Mackenzie Brooks]

I get full consent to those three picks.

[Chip Patterson]

All right, awesome. What do we have on tap for you today?

[Mackenzie Brooks]

That's a good question. 12:45 or 1 o', clock, we're going to be breaking down these games like showing where the model has the edge and how we got to our projected score for all these games somewhere in that noon slate. And then we're recording a YouTube show me Mikey and Adam parlays and bets for the NFL slate this weekend. That'll be on SportsLine, YouTube and then live stream tonight, Thursday Night Football, me and Mikey on the SportsLine, YouTube, little pre game headed in. If anyone wants to come on, give some picks, feel free. We're in the gambling cave tonight.

[Chip Patterson]

That's right. Always on Thursdays getting you set and also on Sundays and also Mondays getting you set with live streams for the biggest NFL games. Go and check it out. That is Mackenzie Brooks. And you can follow her on Twitter at Ken's Brooks bets. You can follow him on Twitter Topper. Now you can follow him at Danny Canelo. You can follow him at buddy3. You can follow me at jeffpatterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much.

[Tom Fornelli]

Thank you.

[Ken's Brooks]

See ya.

[Chip Patterson]

Every holiday shopper's got a list.

[Tom Fornelli]

But Ross shoppers, you've got a mission.

[Chip Patterson]

Like a gift run that turns into a disco snow globe, throw pillows and PJs for the whole family, dog included.

[Tom Fornelli]

At Ross, holiday magic isn't about spending more. It's about giving more for less. Ross, work your magic.