Cover 3 College Football Podcast

CFP First-Round Previews: Alabama-Oklahoma, Miami-Texas A&M, Tulane-Ole Miss & JMU-Oregon

Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott
Date: December 15, 2025

Overview

Main Theme:
The hosts deliver deep-dive analysis and banter on all four College Football Playoff first-round matchups: Alabama-Oklahoma, Miami-Texas A&M, Tulane-Ole Miss, and JMU-Oregon. Each breakdown covers team health, X-factors, adjustments since prior matchups, coaching changes, and critical on-field matchups. The latter part of the episode moves into a rapid-fire news session on coaching carousel and transfer portal buzz, including the latest high-profile moves and rumors.

Segment 1: Alabama (#9) at Oklahoma (#8)

(Friday night) - 07:50

Key Topics & Insights

• Alabama’s Offensive Swoon

  • DK: Highs and lows of Ty Simpson at QB: "He threw, what, 21 touchdowns, one interception through the first eight games, and then the last four had five touchdowns, four interceptions..." [08:35]
  • Injuries have plagued Alabama, as 13 players were out for the SEC Championship. DK speculates on the impact of potential returns.

• Turnover Luck & Health

  • Bud: “Turnovers have a...pretty big randomness factor...scores off turnovers, so, you know, if you're Bama, okay, we just run it back.” [09:47]
  • Both Bama and OU have notable defenders coming back; status of Xavian Brown/Jefferson/Overton for Bama is questioned.

• Oklahoma’s Offense & Prep Time

  • Bud: “With...17 days to prep...can they scheme up a couple scores?” [11:06]
  • Discussion on OU’s streaky big-play threat (Isaiah Sategna) and if the Sooners can sustain drives against a banged-up Bama D.

• Stats Show Offensive Struggles

  • Tom: "In the last five games against FBS opponents, [Alabama are] not playing well on offense...their success rate...the last five, it's at 39%." [13:13]
  • Both offenses have put up nearly identical points/drive down the stretch—neither inspires tremendous confidence.

• Kicking & Field Position X-factor

  • DK: "We haven't even mentioned who's going to have the biggest impact...the kicker with the short shorts. Just took home the Ray Guy award. Tate Sandell, Oklahoma's kicker." [16:55]
  • The panel predicts a low-scoring battle—kicking and field position may be decisive.

• Weather and Coaching

  • Tom: "Temperature...50s...wind's going to be about 15 to 20 mph..." [17:37]
  • Chip: "Coaching edge Alabama though, right?" [17:46]
    Bud, DK: Agree, but DeBoer’s record in big games is strong despite two losses to Venables (Oklahoma).

Notable Quotes

• DK: "You just hope Ty Simpson plays better and takes care of...better care of the football." [08:34]
• Bud: “If you’ve made this Oklahoma team drive, they have pretty much driven off a cliff...” [12:33]
• Tom: "Oklahoma in its last six games, 1.64 points per drive, 34.8%. So pretty much the same production Alabama’s giving you." [13:13]
• DK: "I think this could be kind of an ugly kind of rock fight kind of game." [15:32]

Segment 2: Miami (#10) at Texas A&M (#7)

(Saturday early) - 23:55

Key Topics & Insights

• Road Woes for Miami

  • Tom: "Defensively, they have not been the same team outside of Miami ... allowed .62 points more per possession [on the road] ... their explosive rate explodes from 7% to 11.5%" [25:04]
  • Tough road environment is highlighted as a key adjustment Miami must make.

• Both Teams Rely on the Run

  • DK: "I think the run game is going to be huge for both. I mean like...they are kind of similar and the fact they've been pretty up and down, like what version are you going to get?" [26:50]
  • Injuries at RB for both sides (Le’Veon Moss) discussed; Miami’s Pringlemore brings added dimension.

• Strength-on-Strength in Trenches

  • Bud: "A&M wants to play a lot of man coverage. Beck is not a run threat, like, at all." [28:20]
  • Miami’s D-line’s ability to pressure without blitzing is crucial: "If Miami runs home with 4, I don't think Marcel Reed is a good enough passer..." [29:10]
  • Tom: “What’s the last offensive line Miami's faced that was anywhere near the same stratosphere as Texas A&M’s?” [30:15]
    The panel underscores that neither team has faced comparable firepower on either side’s lines.

• Skill-Player Matchups

  • DK: Watch Malachi Tony’s role as a “wrinkle” for Miami, and the impact of injured Miami DB Keonte Scott. [32:35]
  • Miami’s rebuilt secondary faces their toughest test yet.

• Narrative Stakes

  • Tom: "This is a great narrative bowl for fans because no matter who loses, somebody is a fraud the entire time." [34:18]

Notable Quotes

• Tom: "Miami's only played four road games this year and they lost one of them to SMU..." [25:04]
• Bud: "If Miami gets home with four, I do not think Marcel Reed is a good enough passer..." [29:10]
• DK: “I think the run game is going to be huge … you want to be in more manageable situations.” [26:50]

Segment 3: Tulane (#12) at Ole Miss (#5)

(Saturday afternoon) - 36:24

Key Topics & Insights

• One-Sided in First Meeting; Defensive Gaps

  • Chip: "We saw this one before, it was 45 to 10." [36:24]
  • Tom: "Tulane has to get off to a much better start...Retzlaff was 0 for his first nine. He ended up getting benched..." [38:04]
  • Panel consensus: Tulane’s defense is the worst among all playoff teams, and may again be overwhelmed.

• Ole Miss Adjustments – Coaching Turnover

  • Lane Kiffin is out; Pete Golding is in as interim. How will that shake up Ole Miss’ approach?
  • Bud: “You can't ignore all the changeover going at both programs ... maybe they both handle it poorly... that's probably your best path for this to be, you know, closer.” [39:24]

• Potential for Fireworks

  • Tom: "Of Ole Miss's 10 actual drives, six of them went at least 60 yards." [39:20]
  • Bud: “Ole Miss’ pass rush is not great... that's going to be key to watch.” [40:24]
  • DK: “I do think [Retzlaff] can make it a headache... extend plays a little bit.” [41:14]

• Crowd Environment

  • Chip: Wonders if midafternoon slot, new coach, and future uncertainty will influence the “prime Grove time” crowd: “If this wanted to be a huge sort of statement for the future... it would certainly be interesting to see it.” [42:01]
  • Bud: “They're going to... root like ‘we've arrived’... 'we ain't going nowhere' type of crowd.” [42:59]

Notable Quotes

• Tom: "Tulane's allowed more than 6 yards a play six times this year and more than 7 twice. And that was Ole Miss and UTSA." [40:24]
• Bud: “Ole Miss’ pass rush is not great... the question is does Retzlaff have the athletic advantage against Ole Miss?” [40:24]
• DK: “You know what needs to happen? Lane to live-tweet the game.” [43:28]

Segment 4: James Madison (#13) at Oregon (#4)

(Saturday night) - 45:04

Key Topics & Insights

• JMU’s Path to an Upset – Run Game & Defense

  • Tom: "What James Madison does best...is run the football...If James Madison can figure out ways to keep the ball on the ground and move the ball against this defense...they can make it far more uncomfortable than Oregon might want." [46:13]
  • He notes past instances (Louisville, G5 teams) running the ball with success versus Oregon.

• Oregon’s Health, Motivation & Pace

  • Bud: “If you’re Oregon, how fast do you play this game?...I do think it would make sense to not show as much in terms of pace.” [48:29]
  • With both OCs gone and injured skill players, expect conservative game-planning.

• Matchup Strengths

  • Bud: "I like the middle of Oregon’s defense...because we know JMU just does not...throw the ball outside very well." [52:46]
  • Both teams expected to lean on deep running back rotations.

• Potential for a Slow, Close Game

  • "If both teams are trying to lean on the run game...we might be live at like, you know, 10:45." [49:45]

Notable Quotes

• Tom: "If you put together an all-star offensive line from every single team that JMU's played so far this year, I don't think Oregon would take that. They'd rather have their own." [50:32]
• Bud: “We know JMU just does not. They don't throw the ball outside very well.” [52:44]
• DK: “Alonza Barnett ... he's a little more versatile than [Tulane’s] Retzlaff. He’s a little bit more of a run threat. That can always be a headache...” [50:26]

Segment 5: Portal Watch & Coaching Carousel

[57:05]

Key Topics & Insights

• DJ Lagway Enters Portal

  • Chip: “When he says, thank you, Gainesville, and includes all the languages that are like deuces, I'm gone. Yeah, he's. He's out." [59:02]
  • Bud: Sees Lagway as "pretty strong" on market, notes possible fits: "He's from Texas...Baylor does." [59:07]
  • DK: "I'm a sell on Lagway ... not only inconsistent play but the injuries and the type of injuries. Yeah, I mean, and the shoulder..." [62:57]

• Lenora Sellers Staying at South Carolina

  • "Is South Carolina willing to overpay...?" [64:10]
    Questions about potential and NFL prep in Kendal Briles’ offense.

• Miami’s Transfer Philosophy

  • “They don't recruit quarterback at high school...I think they're saving their money for the QB portal." [61:18] — Bud

• USC “Re-Signed” Marketing

  • Tom: "Genius marketing move" [67:23]
    Programs expected to publicize keeping existing players through portal waves.

Notable Quotes

• DK: "I'm a sell on Lagway...I just feel like some of these guys, they're almost like first one pick in the NFL ... sometimes it works...but...I'm a little bit out on DJ Lagway." [62:57]
• Bud: “If you're Miami, you're like, look at our path. It's pretty much a cakewalk if we handle business.” [62:16]

Segment 6: Michigan Coach Search, Other News

[69:21]

• Kaylen DeBoer Staying at Alabama
  • DK: "He put out a statement...I’d be surprised if he left, but not floored..." [69:47]
  • Uncertainty around Michigan's AD and process may slow down the search.
• Brief discussion of Kyle Whittingham stepping down at Utah.
  • Tom: “I think Kyle’s riding the motorcycle off into the sunset.” [76:11]
• Program Roster Notes
  • Bud: “I did hear that Georgia, like loves their young players and knows it’s going to be like really expensive to try to keep them all.” [74:23]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [07:50] — Alabama-Oklahoma deep dive
• [23:55] — Miami-Texas A&M analysis
• [36:24] — Tulane-Ole Miss breakdown
• [45:04] — JMU-Oregon and G5 P5 dynamics
• [57:05] — Portal buzz and quarterback market
• [69:21] — Michigan coaching rumors, closing news

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• On Alabama’s volatility:
  “I still think that when Alabama plays its A-game it is really good. It's just it doesn't play its A-game every week now.” — Tom Fenelli [21:59]

• On field goal drama:
  “We're all in agreement...I think this is going to be a lower scoring game where possessions are at a premium, field goals are going to be at a premium. And I do think that's a significant edge to Oklahoma.” — Danny Kanell [16:55]

• Narrative stakes for Miami-TAMU:
  “This is a great narrative bowl for fans because no matter who loses, somebody is a fraud the entire time.” — Tom Fenelli [34:18]

• On Tulane’s uphill climb:
  _“It's got the worst defense in the playoff by far. Yeah, by a lot." — Tom Fenelli [38:09]

• On the transfer portal era:
  “They don't recruit quarterback at high school ... I think they're saving their money for the QB portal.” — Bud Elliott [61:18]

Tone & Style

• Lively, humorous banter with in-depth statistical analysis and X’s/O’s
• Maintains original casual, conversational, and occasionally irreverent CBS Sports Cover 3 podcast style
• Frequent reference to fan narratives, “tailgate” chat, and ongoing college football storylines

For those who want a comprehensive preview of all four first-round CFP matchups, key health and coaching news, and the latest market moves—this episode is essential listening!

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