← Cover 3 College Football
Cover 3 College Football
CFP Quarterfinal Previews: Alabama-Indiana, Miami-Ohio State, Ole Miss-Georgia & Oregon-Texas Tech
00:51:17
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- [00:00]
Chip Patterson
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- [01:46]
Tom Fornelli
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Tom Fornelli
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Chip Patterson
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Tom Fornelli
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Danny Cannell
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Chip Patterson
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Tom Fornelli
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Chip Patterson
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Tom Fornelli
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Chip Patterson
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- [02:29]
Tom Fornelli
Hey Ryan Reynolds here for Mint Mobile.
- [02:30]
Danny Cannell
You know, one of the perks about.
- [02:32]
Tom Fornelli
Having four kids that you know about is actually getting a direct line to.
- [02:36]
Chip Patterson
The big man up north.
- [02:37]
Tom Fornelli
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- [02:42]
Chip Patterson
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Tom Fornelli
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Danny Cannell
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Tom Fornelli
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Chip Patterson
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- [02:56]
Tom Fornelli
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- [02:57]
Chip Patterson
See mintmobile.com welcome back to the COVID.
- [03:03]
Tom Fornelli
3 podcast with your hosts, Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Cannell and Bud Elliott. It's your call for the best college.
- [03:12]
Danny Cannell
Football coverage from national signing day to.
- [03:15]
Bud Elliott
The national championship and everything in between.
- [03:19]
Tom Fornelli
CBS Sports presents the COVID 3 podcast.
- [03:24]
Chip Patterson
And welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Frenelli, that's Bud Elliott, that's Danny Cannell. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you live whenever you get it. Appreciate all of y' all for rocking with us here during a New Year's week as we are trying to get you as much of this awesome College Football playoff content as possible. So we are sitting here with a little addition of Big Game Breakdown so not waste any more time. No more headlines to get to. Let's jump in to Big Game Breakdown. Before we get into Big Game Breakdown, a quick shout out to Amazon Prime. Last minute holiday gifts. No problem. Prime's fast free shipping keeps you covered. Holiday wins delivered. It's on Prime. All right. Now, of course, the, the COVID 3 tailgate has already gotten a chance to be able to consume the locks and move those lines. They're, you know, sharpened up just by us even having a show. So now how about like the way the game is even going to play out? And we will begin. Should we go chronological order or do you want to reverse it?
- [04:42]
Tom Fornelli
I think we should go chronological the way I have my notes written.
- [04:46]
Chip Patterson
Okay, Tom. Well, let's start then On Wednesday night, December 31, the Cotton bowl quarterfinal between Miami and Ohio State. Is it over, Tom? Is it oversimplifying to say that this game is decided at the lines of scrimmage?
- [05:01]
Tom Fornelli
No, that is where every game is decided. Chip Patterson.
- [05:04]
Chip Patterson
Okay, well, you can play to the perimeter if you know you need to. If you're a coward, obviously. And, and this is going to come, I mean, it doesn't get more man ball than Cristobal going up against Ryan Day in this kind of setting, in this kind of scenario. So what Is the key for Ohio State to make sure that they are able to give Julian saying a little bit more time and allow Julian saying to get a little bit more comfortable than he was the last time we saw the Buckeyes, which of course was a 13 to 10 loss to Indiana, where the sack count doesn't even necessarily account for the way the game played out in terms of disrupting the flow of the downfield passing attack for the Ohio State offense.
- [05:46]
Tom Fornelli
I mean, if, if you want to try to slow down Miami's pass rush, I don't think the formula is anything that complicated. And what you would typically do is you got to try to run the ball. Like if. If you look at Ohio State's run game as a whole this year, it hasn't been explosive at all, which kind of limits its overall impact. But it has been mostly effective as far as like a down to down basis. They've been pretty, pretty good at getting like those three, four, five yard runs. Just keep things on schedule, trying to draw the safeties up, closer to the line of scrimmage, and then bam, they hit him over the top with the passing game. But we saw, you know, when they struggled against Texas, they only ran for 2.3 yards per carry. When they struggled against Indiana, they only ran for 2.2 yards per carry, which was made sure they weren't able to slow down those pass rushes, which put Julian saying under a lot of pressure, which led to the two worst performances we have seen from Ohio State offensively all season long. So can they do it against Miami? I. I don't know. I, I think that if you look at Miami, clearly incredible pass rush, incredible defensive line, I don't think that overall their run defense to me is as good as Texas or Indiana's. I think that there's more of a chance you can get them there. But you have to prove that you can do it because if you don't and they're just allowed to kind of pin their ears back a little bit, I do think that in the secondary they have enough size. Like, if you look at their corners and their safeties, they're all like six, one, six, two, like that. It is a big secondary. So I think that kind of helps them dealing with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The one thing I do wonder about though, like, can this be a Max Claire game for Ohio State? Because if you look at where Miami gets, their linebackers aren't great in coverage. So if Ryan Day is able to figure out ways to get max Claire on their linebackers I do think that could be a matchup that Ohio State's able to exploit regularly and to great effect. So that is something I'm looking for. But I do think that it's all going to come down to can we run the ball if they can't? It could look a lot like the Indiana and Texas games.
- [07:47]
Danny Cannell
I agree with that a lot. I. I do think that this is the best test Miami has had as far as receivers so far this year. In a different way, right? A and M's receivers are good, like, really good, in fact, but they are not like, they don't have the same size that Ohio State has. And so I'm curious. Miami's got some length too, so it's not to say that they can't handle that. It's just a bit of a. An unknown, you know, test for them right now. Ohio State offensive line was like a little bit not amazing down the stretch, whereas I thought like first half of the year they were really, you know, bullying people. I do think that, like, the speed with which saying gets the ball out is pretty important here. And he. He doesn't hold the ball very long. Like, he is one, two, go. Like, gets it out really fast. How much can that neutralize? Mine is pass rush. Like, that's another thing I'm looking for here. And then Ohio State, I know they lost those guys off last year's team, but, like, they're pretty damn good on the defensive front still, especially in the middle. Nobody's really run the ball on them like much at all this year. And so like Miami, they were able to do it against exam especially down the stretch, and that helped them win the game, put it away and whatnot. Can they do the same against Ohio State? If not like, Beck does not throw the ball down the field much at all. You know, can Ohio State just play a million guys in the box? Flood those, you know, kind of short intermediate zones. Can they tackle some of Miami screens? I. That's kind of what's on my notepad here as far as, like, does Ohio State win? And if so, by how much?
- [09:16]
Bud Elliott
I think one of the elements too is, you know, you guys made great points total agree on the lines of scrimmage. Can Ohio State protect Julian saying they failed to do so against Indiana, but I think part of that as well was the disguising that Indiana did for the defense, because it didn't, Julian saying did not look comfortable. Bud was saying, get your hands out. You'll get the ball to your hands quickly. He didn't know where to go with it quickly against Indiana. And that one thing is Corey Heatherman's going to have to try to disguise, confuse him a little bit because as somebody who's, you know, completed a really high percent of his passes, 77%, he clearly knows where to go with the football. And if he does, he can pick you apart, get it out quick, and that can be, you know, you're, that nothing frustrates edge rushers, sackers, guys that are getting after the quarterback, then you think you've got them and the ball's gone. So it's got to be a combination of can Ohio State protect but also can Miami confuse Julian saying, rattle him a little bit because I'm very curious to see how saying bounces back. This is a real first piece of adversity that he's faced with, you know, in his career with a rough game. Not that he cost him the game by any means, but where he did not put up the numbers he was used to. He just looked a little bit confused, like a first year starter. Miami's gonna have to do the same if they want to pull off this upset.
- [10:40]
Chip Patterson
I wish that for the purposes of trying to figure out what to expect from Carson Beck in this game, I wish that the Texas A and M win wasn't so obviously impacted by the wind.
- [10:53]
Tom Fornelli
Right.
- [10:53]
Danny Cannell
Yeah.
- [10:54]
Chip Patterson
I mean you, you just have to. I can't, I can't be like, oh, he didn't throw an interception. Well, yeah, he didn't push the ball down the field because if you try to throw it this way more than 10 yards, it's going to end up way over here. So like, yes, it was his worst passer rating since the Louisville game. Yes. 103 passing yards and five some odd yards per attempt ain't gonna do anything. Oh, he didn't throw an interception. Is that good? It's like, well. But he didn't really put the, put the ball in danger either. He didn't even take the chance on it. And his one touchdown was a fly sweep. You know, it was the old little like little pop pass right there. So I mean, Danny, how do you, how do you grade or even set expectations for what Carson Beck can be in this game? Because Bud just said, and I think about this because Bud just said, done really pushed the ball down the field. And I think I agree with that. Right. But is he, do you think he's got it in him? You think he's got the juice to be able to step up and make some big time throws? Because we will be in the opposite. Will be in a controlled environment. You know, he should be. If there's any place where he can step up and show some of the physical tools that at one point had him declaring for the NFL draft, he should be able to show it in the cotton ball.
- [12:05]
Bud Elliott
I think they're. And they had some shot plays called in the first half that they missed, and then they were like, we can't throw those. Like, it's just way too low a percentage in the win. So they did. I think they'll take some shots and I might be biased anytime you see something in person, but I mean, seeing him, Tallahassee, he had some beautiful deep balls, you know, but that was, you know, Florida State was good. It was hostile environment at the time, we thought it was gonna be a better one. But I still think he's got it in him to make those throws. The problem is the timing of when they come. Do you get it right? Like, do you get that matchup? I clearly think he can hit him. Do you protect him in those situations? And then if you dial up one of those big throws and they're covered, they don't bite on a play action or they're just not there. Does he have the, you know, the kind of the. The acuity to just say, all right, I'm going to check it down, I'm going to get out of this? You know, I'm not going to make a big mistake? I mean, that clearly is something that still would follow Carson Beck because the history he's had even this season. But the bottom, you know, last month of the season, he's protected the ball really well. And before the game against X am, they were still pushing the ball downfield somewhat, so. So I think they'll take some shots. I don't think they're going to be asking them to sit back there and pick apart Ohio State's defense by any means.
- [13:22]
Tom Fornelli
I think you have to take those shots honestly, keep them honest. I mean, Ohio State's defense, I mean, first of all, very, very talented. No questioning there. But it's also very disciplined and they don't make a lot of mistakes. You kind of have to do stuff to try to get them out, like whether it's RPOs or vertical routes, just to get. See if you can get somebody into making a mistake and blowing a coverage and getting a guy open and hitting a shot. So I think you're going to see Miami doing that. Another thing I think that you should look for in this game is I don't know the officiating crew who is working it, but I've watched a lot of Ohio State this year. Their defensive backs are handsy and if you get a crew that is not so forgiving about like contact between defensive backs and receivers, you could draw a lot of flags on this team. And that could be something that Miami looks for to take advantage of. But I think kind of like we discussed with Ohio State, Miami's gonna have to try to run the ball here to slow down that pass rush because their offensive line did a phenomenal job against Texas A M. And College Station, like Cassius Howell did not have a very good day. Maui Goa was pretty much in his ass. But the difference here is Ohio State has a lot more depth along its defensive line than I think Texas A and M does and I'm a lot more talented. Depth like Ohio State had seven different guys on their defensive line take at least 200 snaps this year. They will be fresh in the fourth quarter. Will Miami be able to hold up? Will their offensive line start wearing down? Because that's what Ohio State's defense does to you. It just wears you down. And in the fourth quarter, the dam is typically broken by then if it hadn't before. So that's going to be very interesting for me. So I think you have to take shots, you have to do stuff to try to get them out of their spots. And you also just have to figure out a way to keep them in front of you. Don't let them get in the backfield. Because we know what Carson Beck does when he gets pressured, he just panics.
- [15:04]
Chip Patterson
That's the kind of thing that really hurts your ability to, you know, load up the, your all conference and all America teams. Right, because Kaden McDonald was all American for us. But you talk about just the depth that they have along the defensive line. Just the counting stats aren't necessarily going to be there. But when we're talking about winning a championship, man, they're, they're going to be better the deeper this season goes. They are going to be better, they're going to be fresher and oh yeah, they're doing it after they lost almost the entire defensive line to the NFL from last year's national title team. Oh, the, oh, the poverty situation that Ohio State has when it comes to talent along the defense, just how do.
- [15:42]
Tom Fornelli
They fit all that under a 20 and a half million dollar cap?
- [15:45]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, that's right.
- [15:47]
Chip Patterson
Because the cap's real, right bud?
- [15:49]
Danny Cannell
That's right.
- [15:51]
Chip Patterson
But any, any last sort of matchup points that you've got your eyes on here for for Miami, Ohio State.
- [15:57]
Danny Cannell
I just think like the number of special pieces that they have at safety and a backer for Ohio State is really going to matter so much in this game when it chasing around Tony. I mean Tony is not a guy for the most part who they throw the ball like super downfield to. And so like their ability to match him to close distance and close space and get him on the ground is. I mean if Miami's going to win this game, he probably needs 10 targets, you know, like just getting his ball, getting the ball in his hands in a variety of ways. Again, you see most receptions here in the season by freshman ACC history. Malachi Tony with 89. I mean like, I just think that's where this Ohio State defense is very different to me than most of the other defenses in the country. And so I think that's a major matchup edge for Ohio State. So like how does Miami scheme around? Think Ohio State's corners are good, by the way. They may not like all be first round type guys, but maybe, maybe it's not Tony. Maybe they have to have guys when one on ones on the outside like.
- [16:57]
Chip Patterson
Danny said will be very interesting to watch. Reminder that game will be on Wednesday night, New Year's eve kickoff around 7:30pm Eastern time from Dallas. And coming up on the other side, we turn our attention to breaking down the New Year's Day games, starting with Oregon and Texas Tech in the Orange bowl and more next. You know how every January feels like a clean slate full of big ideas, big energy and that spark that maybe, maybe this is the year you finally build the thing you've been dreaming about. We all have those ideas that we can't shake. But taking the first step is what turns a dream into your new future. And honestly, the most powerful move you can make to rewrite Your story in 2026 is to start your business with Shopify. Shopify gives you everything you need to sell online and in person. Millions of entrepreneurs have already taken this leap from household names to people launching side hustles for the very first time. And with Shopify, building your dream store is actually doable. Choose from hundreds of beautiful, customizable templates that fit your vibe. Setup is fast too, because Shopify's built in AI can help write your product descriptions and headlines and even help polish your product photos. Marketing already built in, you can create email and social campaigns that reach customers wherever they scroll. And as you grow, Shopify grows with you. Whether you're handling more orders or expanding into new markets. You can run it all from one dashboard in 2026. Stop waiting and start selling with Shopify. Sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com cover. Go to shopify.com cover that's shopify.com cover Hear your first this new year with Shopify by your side, now is your.
- [19:07]
Danny Cannell
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- [19:16]
Bud Elliott
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Danny Cannell
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Bud Elliott
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Danny Cannell
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Bud Elliott
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- [19:35]
Bud Elliott
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- [19:40]
Chip Patterson
Back here on the COVID 3 podcast, continuing our big game breakdowns with a look at the Oregon Ducks and the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Orange Bowl. Danny Cannell, this is your national championship pick, the Oregon Ducks. Did you see enough? Are we more emboldened? Are we concerned? You've got a data point on the Ducks. We of course don't have anything from Texas Tech since they won the Big 12 title game against BYU. Had just a check in on your stock buy from day trading. Danny, for the Ducks as your title winner.
- [20:11]
Bud Elliott
I still like it. I wouldn't sell. I will say I was hoping to see potentially Evan Stewart on the field. We didn't see that. Decoran Moore, what do you have one reception? So he was still a little bit slowed, but I'm still banking on those guys coming back. You know, I, I think this game actually and with those weapons, whether they get all of them or not, I still think Noah winning, Noah Whittington has been a huge part of this offense. Are they able to run the ball against Texas Tech? I think they'll try, but I do not think they are worried about having to move the ball through the air against. The biggest question mark for Texas Tech is their secondary. You know a lot of that money was spent on the front seven. Those guys, David Bailey, Romello, height like they the all the guys on the defensive line are beasts. But the one place that they did not really shore up was the secondary and that's where I feel the most confident about this matchup is Dante Morris ability to make good decisions to get the ball to the right guy on the exterior and to make some big plays that way. So I think you know, a lot of it comes down to, you know, physicality, how do they handle the pass rush. But Dante Moore is pretty good getting outside the pocket. I think they'll have a pretty good solid game plan for him. So that's kind of the matchup I'm watching is Dante Moore and those weapons hopefully getting healthier against Texas Tech secondary, which is not the strength of their defense.
- [21:34]
Danny Cannell
I mean, to me it's like what do we start every Texas Tech game with? Analysis of can you block them? Can you block Texas Tech? Oregon is I think the best or second best offensive line that Texas has played so far this year with the game at Utah probably being number one. Now, we didn't know Dan Pierre was hurting that game because Whittingham kind of did some weird stuff there, but even so, right? Yeah.
- [22:02]
Chip Patterson
The college football coach.
- [22:05]
Danny Cannell
Even so, we have assistant. They handled it pretty well. Like they were able to get a lot of pressure on Utah both in the past game. And they also like held up in the run game, you know, quite a bit. Tech has some like injury stuff going on on the defensive line, so that obviously helps out the Ducks a little bit. But it. Oregon has been really good offensive line this year. I think they're really healthy now on the offensive line. Speaking of health, you know, to Corey Moore, Gary Bryant back should be full go last check in the viewing portion. We did like they did not see Evan Stewart out there in the portion of Oregon practice that is available to the media. I don't know what they'll say on the injury report there, but you know, if he's somehow full go, that really changes things quite a bit. But they've had other players really emerge for the Ducks this year. So like, if Oregon can block them. I do think that despite the fact that Tech is really good at linebacker and their secondary is much improved, I still think that secondary is gettable by a hypothetical team that can block them. We just haven't seen anybody block them so far this year. But they also haven't faced many good passing quarterbacks. You know, I mean, was it. Sam Levitt was probably the best one, I think. Right. Who's the second best? Is it Bachmire?
- [23:21]
Chip Patterson
No way.
- [23:22]
Tom Fornelli
Hold on.
- [23:22]
Bud Elliott
Probably. No, it might be.
- [23:25]
Danny Cannell
No, no, it wasn't.
- [23:27]
Tom Fornelli
Damn.
- [23:27]
Bud Elliott
You want to go through the list? Who's the second best?
- [23:30]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, let's. Let's play the game.
- [23:32]
Tom Fornelli
Go through the list.
- [23:32]
Chip Patterson
We only got so many big game breakdowns left. Let's play the game. What's the best passing quarterback?
- [23:37]
Danny Cannell
I mean, is It Avery Johnson.
- [23:40]
Tom Fornelli
Yeah. No.
- [23:42]
Danny Cannell
Okay.
- [23:45]
Bud Elliott
Not this year. I think Bear Bachmeyer was the best quarterback they faced outside of Sam Levitt.
- [23:51]
Chip Patterson
Connor Wegman.
- [23:53]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, Connor Wegman actually is probably one of the.
- [23:55]
Danny Cannell
He's okay. No chance of blocking him in that game. I think Houston guys out up front like, like they just got all over him.
- [24:02]
Tom Fornelli
They didn't play any Dante Morris.
- [24:04]
Danny Cannell
Like they didn't. They didn't play Josh Hoover, they didn't play Rocco Beckt. Right.
- [24:10]
Chip Patterson
Kind of went through for 345. Let. Let the man who just beat LSU to give the Cougs 10 wins let him be celebrated for a second.
- [24:20]
Danny Cannell
I thought Avery, actually, Avery like was scrambling around like crazy in that game but didn't move it pretty okay. You know, in a loss, of course Dante's probably the best quarterback they faced and certainly the best QBO line combo they faced. So like that, that's what this game comes down to. I think Texas Tech will move it some. I don't know if they'll score between the 20 or like inside the red zone. I think they'll probably move it some on Oregon's defense, but like it's can or if Texas Tech's front just is what it was all year against the step up competition. Now the Tex got a real shot to win this if Oregon could slow them down. I think Oregon feels pretty good.
- [25:00]
Tom Fornelli
On yesterday's ox pod when we recorded yesterday, I, I took the Texas Tech team total under and one of the reasons I'm not optimistic about their offense in this game is that like Tech has to hit explosives like their offense is. They're not, they're not going down to down schedules, you know, putting together long drives. They're looking to hit big shots and finish drives quickly. Oregon's defense is fourth nationally and explosive play rate allowed. They do. They don't blitz a lot. They do a good job of getting pressure with just their base packages. They drop in the zone, they keep everything in front of you and force you to put together long drives. And then they, you know, when they get in the red zone, they do have problems, but Texas Tech's offense has problems in the red zone. So that is a concern to me for Texas Tech offensively. On the other side though, I think we talk about Texas Tech secondary and I think you guys are right. There hasn't been a whole lot that has happened there to test them. Certainly not with what they're going to be dealing with in this matchup. But I do think what Texas Tech does is it is very aggressive on defense, like they're not, they're, they're getting up field as quickly as they can. That defensive line, they're not, you know, you don't really see a whole lot of edge setting. They're, they're coming after your ass. So I'm expecting that. What we're going to see early in this game is Oregon's going to do a whole lot of its horizontal passing stuff. We're going to see a lot of screens to the sidelines forcing Texas Tech to keep kind of creeping up to take care of that because they're probably going to hit a few chunks off of that because the receivers are good in space. And then once Texas Tech starts doing that, shots, shots, shots down the field looking for the big plays, which they're good at. Because I do have concerns of whether or not Oregon will be able to run the ball as effectively in this game as they have been the last month or so. And I do think Texas Tech's run defense is very good. But as I mentioned on yesterday's locks pod, Texas Tech hasn't faced a run, a rushing offense that is good and also has a good quarterback. So it's, it's a much different task when you can't just load the box with eight or nine guys to slow them down. So it'll be interesting to see. I, I do think Oregon ends up winning this game. I just don't know if it's going to be a blowout win or if it's going to be like an ugly ish kind of win.
- [27:05]
Chip Patterson
Is there a been here before advantage that we should take into consideration or is that just like total narrative sauce?
- [27:14]
Danny Cannell
How do you quantify it?
- [27:16]
Chip Patterson
Because Dan Lanning and his staff have had to prepare for College Football playoff games for big time games for a couple years now and Texas Tech simply just not, not only has not been here in terms of playing in the College Football Playoff, but just has not played games on this stage with these kinds of stakes very often. I mean it is a just a. There is a newness that is undeniable, that what is debatable is the impact that it would actually have.
- [27:45]
Tom Fornelli
I do think there's something to it. I do think that there is a. I don't think it's a incredible advantage, but I do think there's a slight advantage to having been here before. So maybe even, even if, despite the coaching, even if you're just a player.
- [27:56]
Chip Patterson
Like you're not as imagining the player of like just how like this. I'm not trying to be mean. But this ain't the Alamo Bowl. Like, this ain't the Holiday Bowl. Like, the amount of locked in that you need to be to get yourself prepared for kickoff against this opponent on this stage at this time. I just, it's.
- [28:15]
Tom Fornelli
It's fair to say this is the biggest game a lot of the guys in those Texas Tech uniforms have ever played, and you don't know how you're going to handle that. There could be some tension and some, you know, anxiety early on in the game before you finally settle in. So, yeah, I definitely think that's. That's part of the equation. I don't know how big of a factor it is, though.
- [28:33]
Chip Patterson
What do we think the fan turnout is going to be, dk?
- [28:38]
Bud Elliott
I think it'll be more Texas Tech.
- [28:41]
Chip Patterson
Right.
- [28:43]
Bud Elliott
Some Oregon, some empty seats.
- [28:49]
Danny Cannell
I don't know.
- [28:49]
Bud Elliott
I mean, I. I don't know. It's a hard place to travel for Oregon.
- [28:54]
Tom Fornelli
Yeah.
- [28:55]
Bud Elliott
You know, but it's just been. The weather's gorgeous. It's kind of South Florida issue that they always run in. I mean, it's not the best sports town that just people are going to die hard, is going to go, want to watch College Football Playoff game.
- [29:07]
Tom Fornelli
It.
- [29:08]
Danny Cannell
There's a bit of a brand issue there. Right. Oregon is a good TV draw. If you look at some of the TV stuff, they're not quite as good as maybe like, they don't draw quite as well as they play. And Tech's not really a name brand, you know, among like the top 20 or so name brands in the sport as far as like, draw and excitement. So how many casuals are you going to get? Like sidewalk guys? You're going to get by tickets.
- [29:33]
Tom Fornelli
Yeah.
- [29:33]
Danny Cannell
Let's go to the Orange Bowl. You know, maybe some.
- [29:35]
Chip Patterson
This is.
- [29:35]
Tom Fornelli
This is one of those times where the College Football Playoff selection committee needs to look at itself in the mirror and say, how much better could this game have been if it had been Texas Notre Dame instead of these two scrubs? Well, no, they love it.
- [29:46]
Chip Patterson
This is a big game breakdown. We can't get this. I was thinking less of a percentage to capacity, as much of a percentage against each other. I was imagining that with this being arguably one of the biggest games in Texas Tech football history, that we could see Texas Tech roll deep. That Texas.
- [30:01]
Bud Elliott
I mean, I think it'll be a significant edge for Texas.
- [30:04]
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
- [30:04]
Danny Cannell
I think about the alumni bases, too. Where do you think the biggest alumni bases for Tech are? I would guess in Houston, Dallas, Austin, Oklahoma City.
- [30:13]
Chip Patterson
Right. That was a nice Little run.
- [30:15]
Danny Cannell
Maybe San Antonio. Like, I'm just like, major cities that are close.
- [30:18]
Tom Fornelli
Right, we'll say that.
- [30:20]
Chip Patterson
What.
- [30:20]
Danny Cannell
What are they for Oregon, Portland, San Fran, Louisiana. Salt Lake.
- [30:28]
Tom Fornelli
Far away.
- [30:29]
Danny Cannell
I'm just trying to like major cities on the West Coast. Right? Yeah.
- [30:32]
Tom Fornelli
Far away. Because you mentioned it should be in Lubbock. And credit to Dan Lanning for saying that, too. This game should be played in Lubbock.
- [30:43]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, So I do. And so I do think Texas Tech will have more fans, and that could be proved me wrong. Oregon fans, I've seen y' all travel. First year of the Big Ten play. Oregon fans and opposing Big Ten stadiums was impressive. Got to see it in person for myself in Ann Arbor, which obviously is a little bit of a bucket list trip for some, but they seemed to be really excited about going to see all these new places along the way.
- [31:06]
Danny Cannell
It's also like, you have to fly, what, on New Year's Eve and early on New Year's Eve to get there because you're losing all that time. If you're like, if you're in Portland, what are you flying in for this.
- [31:17]
Chip Patterson
Game on the 30th?
- [31:18]
Danny Cannell
Yeah, they're all week or like the morning of the 31st. That. That's. That's an expensive flight.
- [31:25]
Chip Patterson
They're already there.
- [31:26]
Tom Fornelli
I've been sleeping in that Hard Rock parking lot for four days already.
- [31:31]
Chip Patterson
All right, let's turn our attention to the afternoon kick. But in the Rose bowl, it is Indiana and Alabama. We have, of course, a lot of injuries that we are monitoring, especially on the Alabama side that could play an impact in this. On the Indiana side, just the. The. The remarkable, awful injury luck of having one of your best defensive linemen jumping up to give a high five and then having his leg buckle. It's tough, tough scene there for the Hoosiers defense, but it's still a group that has done nothing but just check every box and pass every test. In terms of not just being a team that can take advantage of a weak schedule to go win a bunch of games, but a team that can beat some of the best teams in the sport. You beat Oregon in their house. You beat Ohio State in the Big Ten championship. Like you, there is nothing fluky about where Indiana is here now. Now they go up against a program and a brand and a monster. That is Alabama that is not led by Nick Saban, but, man, it is still loaded with some of the most talent that you are going to find in all of college football. Bud. What is the key for Alabama to play to its talent ceiling. Because if there is a criticism of the last two seasons, I think it is that the talent rating and the talent analysis going into the year has not always lined up with the win loss record.
- [32:57]
Danny Cannell
I think a lot of it is defensively. Indiana has killed teams playing a lot of zone this year. Bama is a team that wants to play more zone. I think Bama has the physical potential, like athlete wise and I think her secondary is very good to play more man. I think they will almost have to show more man in this game. So how much man do they think they have to play? Like, how much zone can they get away with playing and like how effectively can they play a lot of man coverage against Indiana? Indiana is a heavy rpo team. I don't mean like qb run stuff. I mean like, you know, hey, we're pick a guy, we're reading this guy. Like we're rpoing off a certain dude. Otherwise like balls out. Typically, like the teams that play, man are a little better against that. Right. And Mendoza is also not. Not really much of a run threat. So I think that would also kind of lend yourself like we want to play more man here. Can they get away with doing it? Like they don't play a ton of man. They play more zone. So you're asking them to maybe not play outside their ability, but to play outside of their comfort zone if you want to maximize their chance. And I don't know how well that matches up in a national quarterfinal. Right. So styles make fights. I. I don't love that matchup for the Bama defense, personally.
- [34:08]
Chip Patterson
Dk, what stands out? Where's this one going to hinge?
- [34:13]
Bud Elliott
I think if Ty Simpson can get hot, like I. I'm not convinced that Alabama is going to be able to run the ball. I mean, I just. When we talked about it on our picks on the lockspod, you know, do. Do they just try to throw it? You know, I mean, you've got to keep them honest. So I mean, what they. They had 28 rushes or 25 rushes for 28 yards against Oklahoma, you know, and a lot of those were sacks for Ty Simpson getting pressured. But I just. That's my. You're the strength of your team are your weapons on the outside, you know, and Ty Simpson, when he's hot, he can be really good. So that's where I think the. The kind of matchups would tend to favor Alabama. If they can make this a game. I do think Indiana will be able to score against Alabama's defense, not a shootout by any means. But I do think they'll be able to score their most balanced, one of the more balanced teams of any in this College Football Playoff. So for me, if, like, Alabama's got to put points on the board, I think their best chance is through there.
- [35:12]
Tom Fornelli
Yeah, I mean, that's. That's one of those things that overall just kind of makes me skeptical of Alabama's ability to make the deep run. It's not that they're not talented. It's that offensively it's the Ty Simpson show and they pretty much had. They need him to do everything. Everything, it feels like most of the time. And when he's playing well, it works. When he's not, they really don't have a counter. So I. I look at the matchup here. Alabama's going to have to hit explosives in the passing game because they're probably not going to be able to run the ball very effectively because nobody's been able to run the ball effectively against Indiana, though, maybe this is where the absence of Daly has an impact because he's not their best pass rusher, but he is a very disruptive player, particularly in the run game. So maybe Alabama finds some success there. But I do think that overall, the one area of Indiana's defense that has been vulnerable, they do allow big plays in the passing game. They will give up explosives. So if Alabama is able to find those shots and hit enough of them, I think that they can make this game very uncomfortable for the Hoosiers. It's just at the same time, and as you guys touched on, like, Alabama has not faced a lot of passing offenses that push the ball vertically on average. You know, like, as far as air yards are concerned, the two that they faced that had a higher air yardage per attempt than Indiana were Florida State and Tennessee. Well, we know what Florida State did to them, but that's a very different offense than what Indiana runs. And Tennessee runs a very different offense than Indiana does. This is more like. Bud, you mentioned they run a lot of RPOs, but they're also very kind of pro style overall in what they're doing. And they also have a much better quarterback than either Florida State or Tennessee had in Fernando Mendoza as far as hitting those throws. So we saw last week against Mater, Alabama was like, there was a lot of dudes running open in that secondary. Indiana has very good receivers, too. I think you're going to see a lot of dudes running open in the Alabama secondary, and I think Indiana is going to be able to move the Ball effectively. I think Indiana will be able to run the ball better in this game than Alabama will, which I think tilted in their favor. So I do think that if you're Alabama, you have to figure out a way to get Indiana to turn the ball over and give you extra possessions. It's really your number one route to victory here because I do think Alabama can win. I do think there is something to the ability of. If you look at them defensively, Indiana hasn't faced a whole hell of a lot of defensive lines that have this kind of body and talent and pressure wise they're not great. They, they're not bad but they're kind of more middle of the road as far as pressure rate allowed. Like Fernando Mendoza has been pressured a lot. Of course he's been superhuman like when he has been pressured because he's not afraid to stand there and take the hits. So if you're the Tide, you have to get that pass rush going. You have to figure out ways to overwhelm that offensive line and you have to figure out ways to bait Mendoza into traps or at least hurry up because we did see on the road against Oregon earlier this year he overcame it, but he did throw that pick six when Oregon was getting after him. You have to figure out ways to do that yourself because if, if Alabama doesn't win the turnover battle, there's no way they win this game in my opinion.
- [38:11]
Chip Patterson
You do have the athleticism on that defense though to be able to run it the other way or have a big return or flip the field. You know those things are there. Lottie Brooks. It was tremendous in the first round matchup. Which leads to my next question. Will Ryan Williams be a factor in this game? Kaylin DeBoer has been asked about Williams and his sort of lack of involvement in, in the offense he defended. You know our concepts are not built to necessarily get the ball to one player. Certainly sometimes we do with screens and things like that but you know the, the ball we need to do that because he's a playmaker. But in our concepts the ball found other guys and those guys made plays, you know, like it. Okay, we'll, we'll see. There have been obviously you questions about what Ryan Williams future is going to be beyond this just as as much as anybody else who's a gifted player. With the transfer portal set to open in what do we think about Williams in, in this matchup? If you were to, if you were to take a guess. Do you think we see him force fed? Do you think we see A decent impact or, or do we see nothing Danny?
- [39:22]
Bud Elliott
I mean I don't think they're going to force feed him the ball. They don't have to. They've got other weapons who have stepped up. Jeremy Bernard's been awesome. You mentioned Brooks stepping up like but I think he'll be like it makes you nervous. I think for a defense like I don't think you're game planning to stop Ryan Williams by any mean. You know I think there's the threat that he could hurt you but I mean we just saw him with his 10th drop against Oklahoma. Mentally I don't know where his headspace is. That is not somebody I would want to be forcing the ball to.
- [39:49]
Tom Fornelli
Last four games he has four catches for 63 yards. If you look at him on the season against ranked team, six games, 17 catches for 224 yards and one touchdown. No, he's not going to impact in.
- [40:04]
Chip Patterson
This game playing against a ranked team. He's not just going to be able to blow past him and get wide TF open.
- [40:09]
Tom Fornelli
He's like, he's like the third or fourth best receiver on this team. We're only fascinated with him because he had one great game against Georgia.
- [40:19]
Bud Elliott
He made.
- [40:20]
Chip Patterson
Yeah, I, I think it makes plays.
- [40:22]
Tom Fornelli
He's not a good receiver but he'll make a play.
- [40:27]
Chip Patterson
What do you think bud?
- [40:29]
Danny Cannell
I think there's some chance like they he's still special as far as like speed wise and agility. Like there's some confidence issues with the catching. So maybe they do try to find other ways to get the ball in his hands potentially. I mean I, I could see that. Yeah but I don't know that like they have to to Tom, Danny's point.
- [40:49]
Chip Patterson
Again that will be from the Rose bowl kicking off around 4pm Eastern time in Pasadena. The Indiana against the nine seed Alabama. Well, coming up on the other side we turn our attention to the Sugar bowl quarterfinal between Georgia and Ole Miss. Have we seen this game before? We have. We'll get into it and more next. Back here on the COVID 3 podcast. Again we detailed especially leading into Ole Miss two lane sort of the all of the changes so we don't need to belabor the point there. But what did you see from Ole Miss that either confirmed or changed your mind in terms of the way that you should break this team down? After the changes of Lane Kiffin leaving, you've got Charlie Weiss Jr. Came back to coach a few other assistants, a few other staffers as well. Whatever influence Pete Golding was going to have, did, did you see, did you see anything from the win against Tulane which altered your perspective on trying to break this thing down?
- [41:57]
Danny Cannell
It's a fair question, Chip, but I, I did not. I, I just think that matchup was like so much of an overwhelming like height, weight, speed type thing to where if they do have changes, they, they didn't really seem to show them. Like, one of the top questions in my mind is Golding's a defensive guy and certainly I think he wants to continue to run somewhat of a wide open offense like Ole Miss has run, but we don't know how he's going to manage a game when it gets tight. Kiffin is really good as far as like in game management, maximizing possessions, understanding like how to use timeouts, like things like that. He's really good at that. We don't know how good at that goaling is because we haven't seen it. We have not seen him be the head coach in a tight game. So I don't think they're going to run a whole lot of different stuff. It's just. Do they go a little more defensive head coach style where they're a little more conservative? Maybe they timbo down some in a tight game. Maybe there's a bit of a pucker factor there. We don't know. Right. As far as, you know, maybe some punting where Lane would, would try to go and like we know that probably hurts your chance of winning overall, but it also, it will keep the game closer potentially. So that's something that I will look for in this one. If the game is actually close and.
- [43:12]
Bud Elliott
I wasn't there, I think he was aggressive early against Tulane. There was a fourth down or some territory like. But that's a different scenario. Like if it's time. Yeah, I mean, it's playoffs. You're not the heavy favorite. Every single decision will be amplified. So I do think that's something to keep an eye on. I'm kind of curious to see. You know, Ole Miss came out, they were so strong early in that game, through three quarters. I would expect Kirby Smart to make some adjustments and take some of that away.
- [43:40]
Danny Cannell
Yeah.
- [43:41]
Bud Elliott
Kewan Lacey was not able to run the football in the first matchup. I think they're going to try to do that again, but I don't know if they're going to have much success doing it. I almost feel like Kirby and this Georgia defense are way different and way better than they were the first time around. I think it's be a little bit of a struggle for Ole Miss to put up some points.
- [44:01]
Tom Fornelli
Fellas.
- [44:01]
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
- [44:02]
Tom Fornelli
What if I told you that the Ole Miss defense turned a corner in the two lane game, would you believe me?
- [44:15]
Chip Patterson
No.
- [44:16]
Tom Fornelli
Okay. Because on the season Ole misses has scored 31 points off of turnovers on the entire season, 21 of them came against Tulane. What if the Ole Miss Rebels are suddenly a team that turns you over and turns it into points? They have to be if they're going to win this game. Because I mentioned it on the lockspot. Georgia had eight full possessions in the first meeting. Georgia scored on all eight of those possessions. And if not for like a offensive pass interference, it probably would have been a touchdown instead of a field goal on one of those possessions. So I just don't have a whole lot of faith defensively. I think statistically you look at a lot of the categories that I care about and of the eight remaining teams in the field, Ole Miss is the worst in all of them. It's just hasn't been a very good defense all year. I don't know what has changed in the last few weeks or since last week that would make me think that they are capable of stopping Georgia when they could not stop Georgia the first time around. I mean, Tulane was able to move the ball on them last week, but Tulane turned it over or just didn't finish drive. So that's a problem that Ole Miss needs to figure out here. It will be interesting to see. At the same time, George's offense has been very effective. I still don't feel like it's great when I watch it. Like they score points, they move the ball, but you watch them and you're just kind of like, you wonder if they're just more talented and that's kind of what they're relying on or if there's actually something kind of special about it. I don't know if that's really going to impact them in this game because I do think they are the better team and I do think they will score a whole hell of a lot better points. It's more of a long term issue I have with Georgia going forward than in this one.
- [45:56]
Chip Patterson
So there's a, there's a number that is important to me. The number is 76. Okay, 76. 76 is the number of inches that is 6 foot 4. 6 foot 4 is how tall Colby Young is. And Colby Young was knocked out of the Ole Miss game. And even though he only played 6, 7 games on the season, he is still the team's second leading receiver on the season behind Zachariah Branch. We have seen from Georgia's bowl game preparation that the media was allowed to look at. Colby Young seems to be back and that feels fairly significant in, I don't know, third down, red zone, deep shots, lots of different angles when it comes to the passing game. Like, you talk about, like, what was in one but not in the other. He had just one catch, I believe, in the game against Ole Miss before getting hurt and getting knocked out. The way that he can provide a boost for a passing attack that already kind of cooked Ole Miss's defense in the first game. That's one that I'm looking at, Tom, which could be important not just for this one, but like you said, spinning it moving forward. Can Colby Young's return be an offensive spark that is able to really start to continue to provide some balance, open up the run game, things of that nature.
- [47:17]
Tom Fornelli
Fun stat. If you look at it from reception, Zach Branch has 73 on the year. Right?
- [47:22]
Chip Patterson
Right.
- [47:22]
Tom Fornelli
George's next three receivers, Dylan Bell, Colby Young and Oscar Delp, have combined for 69. Branch has more receptions than the next three guys alone.
- [47:33]
Chip Patterson
So I'm looking at that as a cover.
- [47:35]
Tom Fornelli
That guy is what I'm saying.
- [47:39]
Chip Patterson
Kiwan Lacey's health, another thing I'm kind of keeping my eyes on in a big way. Just. He was, He's.
- [47:46]
Danny Cannell
He's been awesome.
- [47:49]
Chip Patterson
Here's what I stopped myself on. I was about to say he was their best offensive player this season. Is that fair? Trinidad's been good.
- [47:56]
Tom Fornelli
Yeah, I think so.
- [47:58]
Danny Cannell
Yeah, I would agree.
- [47:58]
Tom Fornelli
And he's definitely the one I'm highest on.
- [48:02]
Chip Patterson
Yeah. As we see here on the screen. If you're watching along@YouTube.com cover3, Kwan Lacey with 1366 yards. That is the second best single season total in Ole Miss history, only behind Quinshon Judkins back in 2022. Danny, what about the big picture stuff for the dogs? I'm not going to give them the. I'm going to give them the win. I'm not going to advance them just yet. I mean, they are sitting here as a, you know, six and a half or, you know, right around a touchdown favorite. You lose that game 100%. But Tom's question at least brought it up for me. Bob, is this a team that you think can win a national championship?
- [48:40]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, I had them in a small group of teams that could playing at their best. I think this is sort of a. If they do handle their business, which I think they will, and I don't know if there's Any. I haven't really heard anybody say that Georgia can't. You know, I think if they struggle with Ole Miss, you might see some doubters creep in, because I think the majority think they should handle their business. But I think the defense has come along. Gunner Stockton quietly has been a gamer that has stepped up in the biggest spots. They've been running the football better. They're getting healthy. Absolutely. They've got the pedigree. We've seen Kirby smart, irritated. I'm sure he's tired. He hasn't been in the national championship game in a few years, so he's probably a little agitated by that. Yeah, yeah. So, I mean, I think all of it. Yeah, definitely.
- [49:26]
Tom Fornelli
But I'm gonna give Kirby a freebie here. I do not believe a word I'm about to say. Three, no. Georgia is not capable of winning a national title. Georgia is a terrible football team. Frankly. They're not talented. Gunner Stockton is all moxy and no ability, no talent, no brains. He's just. He's out there on vibes and fives. Do not win national titles. Defensively, the pass rush is dog doo doo. It's not good enough to compete at this level. Frankly, if Georgia was in the Big Ten, it probably wouldn't even have made a bowl game, let alone the College Football playoff.
- [50:00]
Chip Patterson
And scene.
- [50:01]
Tom Fornelli
There you go.
- [50:03]
Chip Patterson
There you go, Kirby. Just what you needed for the video to play on New Year's Eve as you're getting all the. Getting the team together to show them that last little bit of motivation. It's. It's Tom. Is that. Is that actually the. The Brad Underwood Illinois? Okay. Yeah, it's Tom in a Brad Underwood Illinois cap.
- [50:24]
Bud Elliott
So good.
- [50:26]
Chip Patterson
So good. Excuse me, bud. Last thoughts here. Places where you think it's, like, very important to get the matchup right for both of these teams.
- [50:36]
Danny Cannell
Like, does. Does Bobo play the.
- [50:39]
Bud Elliott
The center.
- [50:40]
Chip Patterson
Center? Yeah.
- [50:41]
Danny Cannell
Like last six quarters for Georgia. Offensively, I've not been, like, in love with. Not. They're terrible, but they just haven't looked quite the same. I mean, he obviously, like, is really an important part of that offense. Like. Like Chip said, Colby Young coming back is huge. But I do think that there is enough on defense for Georgia to get enough stops to where the offense will find out a way to score and come out ahead.
- [51:04]
Chip Patterson
I think we are not going to see. I don't know. Okay. I don't have that confirmed. That's not reported. But how about this? If we were sitting around taking bar bets, we say, is Drew Bobo going to play in this game. I would, I would guess, I would, I would bet a drink that the answer might be that it's, it's going to be sticking to the, sticking to the backups and the retooled offensive line, which did a good enough job early against Alabama to help establish that lead. But to your point, Bud, in terms of the last six quarters, I mean, they, I don't know. I don't know if we can say that they are anywhere close to where they were at their very peak at the end of the year in terms of the offensive line, but something certainly to monitor moving forward. Are there any, any other thoughts on the Sugar Bowl? All right. Oh, I'm excited to watch it, too. And I'm excited when the Sugar bowl ends for everybody, every single one of you, to come and join us as we recap all of the College Football Playoff quarterfinal action on New Year's Day. Because that's right, it will be at the conclusion of the Cotton bowl on New Year's Eve between Ohio State and Miami. We will be live on YouTube.com cover3. Then at the conclusion of the Sugar bowl between Georgia and Ole Miss, we will be live@YouTube.com cover3, giving you those instant reactions to all of the day's action. So come and hang out, watch live. Join the conversation. And you can follow him on Twitter at Tom Fenell, you can follow him@Bud Elliot, 3. You can follow him at Danny Canel. Follow me at GFP Patterson, gentlemen, thank you very much.
- [52:45]
Tom Fornelli
Thank you. They say if you want to go fast, go alone. But if you want to go far, go together.
- [52:52]
Chip Patterson
At Amica Insurance were built for our.
- [52:54]
Tom Fornelli
Customers and prioritize your needs. Call 877-41-America and get a quote.