Cover 3 College Football Podcast – CFP Quarterfinal Previews

Episode Date: December 30, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott

Episode Overview

This episode of the Cover 3 Podcast dives deep into previews and analysis for all four College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchups:

• Alabama vs. Indiana (Rose Bowl)
• Miami vs. Ohio State (Cotton Bowl)
• Oregon vs. Texas Tech (Orange Bowl)
• Georgia vs. Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl)

The hosts bring their signature blend of sharp football insight, stat-driven analysis, and banter to assess key matchups, strategic questions, and X-factors for each game. Discussions focus strongly on line play, quarterback performance, and the impact of coaching changes or injury news.

Segment 1: Miami vs. Ohio State (Cotton Bowl)

[04:45–16:57]

Key Discussion Points

• Trench Warfare & Run Game:

  • The matchup is defined by battles at the line of scrimmage, particularly Ohio State’s ability (or inability) to establish the run against Miami’s strong pass rush.
  • Tom Fornelli: “If you want to try to slow down Miami's pass rush ... you got to try to run the ball ... [Ohio State] has been pretty good at getting those three, four, five yard runs. Just keep things on schedule, trying to draw the safeties up, closer to the line of scrimmage, and then bam, they hit him over the top with the passing game.” [05:45]

• QB Julian Sayin Under Pressure:

  • The Buckeyes’ struggles against Indiana and Texas were traced to a lack of running game, putting QB Julian Sayin under heavy duress.
  • “We saw when they struggled against Texas, they only ran for 2.3 yards per carry. When they struggled against Indiana, they only ran for 2.2 yards per carry ... which put Julian Sayin under a lot of pressure.” – Tom Fornelli [06:15]

• Tactical Matchups:

  • Potential for Ohio State to exploit Miami’s linebackers in coverage, especially via TE Max Clare.
  • Miami’s secondary has size, possibly limiting OSU’s big, physical receivers.
  • Danny Kanell: “The speed with which Sayin gets the ball out is pretty important here ... He doesn't hold the ball very long ... How much can that neutralize Miami's pass rush?” [08:04]

• Miami on Offense:

  • OSU’s defensive front is still imposing, especially against the run.
  • Can Miami’s ground game replicate its Texas A&M success?
  • If not, there are doubts there's enough from the QB position to win from behind.
  • Bud Elliott: “Miami’s gonna have to... disguise, confuse [Sayin] a little bit ... because as somebody who's completed a really high percent of his passes, 77%, he clearly knows where to go with the football. And if he does, he can pick you apart, get it out quick...” [09:16]

• Ohio State Defensive Depth:

  • OSU cycles in seven D-linemen, keeping pressure intense through four quarters.
  • OSU DBs are handsy; officiating could influence the big play/flag count.
  • “Their defensive backs are handsy and if you get a crew that is not so forgiving about like contact ... you could draw a lot of flags on this team.” – Tom Fornelli [13:21]

• Miami WR Malachi Tony:

  • OSU’s safeties and LBs could be decisive in limiting Tony, Miami’s top slot weapon (ACC record, 89 receptions as a freshman).
  • “If Miami's going to win this game, [Tony] probably needs 10 targets ... Ohio State defense is very different... major matchup edge for [them].” – Danny Kanell [15:57]

Notable Quote

• “This is going to come, I mean, it doesn't get more man ball than Cristobal going up against Ryan Day in this kind of setting, in this kind of scenario.” – Chip Patterson [05:04]

Segment 2: Oregon vs. Texas Tech (Orange Bowl)

[19:39–31:31]

Key Discussion Points

• Oregon’s Offensive Upside:

  • Ducks are Danny Kanell’s title pick. Receivers’ health is crucial, with Evan Stewart and DeCorey Moore’s status monitored.
  • Bud Elliott: “I think this game actually ... biggest question mark for Texas Tech is their secondary ... I feel the most confident about this matchup is Dante Moore's ability to make good decisions.” [20:10]

• Can Tech’s D-line Dominate?

  • Oregon’s O-line is likely the best Tech has seen, and may finally neutralize their fierce front.
  • “If Oregon can block them ... that secondary is gettable. ...We just haven't seen anybody block them so far this year.” – Danny Kanell [21:34]

• Have the Red Raiders Been Tested?

  • Tech hasn’t faced many quality QBs/OLs (long debate over their ‘best’ opponent); the step up may be dramatic.
  • “Sam Levitt was probably the best one, I think. Right? Who's the second best? Is it Bachmeier?” – Danny Kanell [23:21] (Joking about Tech’s weak schedule.)

• Offensive Strategy & Explosives:

  • Tech’s offense relies on big-play hits, not grinding drives. Oregon is excellent at preventing explosives.
  • “Oregon's defense is 4th nationally in explosive play rate allowed ... they don't blitz a lot ... they do a good job of getting pressure with just their base packages... Texas Tech’s offense has problems in the red zone.” – Tom Fornelli [24:59]

• Oregon to Use Horizontal Passing Early:

  • Oregon will likely attack the aggressive TT D-line with perimeter screens before testing deep.
  • “We're going to see a lot of screens to the sidelines forcing Texas Tech to keep kind of creeping up ... and then shots, shots, shots down the field...” – Tom Fornelli [25:50]

• Experience/Newness Factor:

  • Is there an advantage for Oregon, given their staff’s playoff/Big Stage experience? Probably slight, but not overwhelming.
  • “There is a newness that is undeniable ... what is debatable is the impact.” – Chip Patterson [27:13]
  • “I do think there's something to it. ...There could be some tension and some, you know, anxiety early on in the game before you finally settle in.” – Tom Fornelli [27:44]

• Crowd Edge:

  • Consensus that Texas Tech will probably have more fans in Miami, given geography and alumni bases.
  • “It's a hard place to travel for Oregon ... but ... they seemed to be really excited about going to see all these new places.” – Chip Patterson [30:03]

Segment 3: Alabama vs. Indiana (Rose Bowl)

[31:31–40:28]

Key Discussion Points

• Indiana’s Legit Credentials & Alabama’s Talent Disparity

  • Indiana passes all the tests (winning @ Oregon, beating Ohio State in Big Ten title game).
  • Bama’s talent hasn't always translated to results.

• Defensive Matchups:

  • Indiana's zone defense has been lights out, but Bama typically prefers to play zone themselves.
  • “How much man do they think they have to play? Like, how much zone can they get away with ... can they get away playing ... a lot of man coverage against Indiana?” – Danny Kanell [32:56]

• Offensive Key for Bama:

  • Alabama will need Ty Simpson to make plays and hit explosives in the pass game; the run game is unlikely to be productive vs IU.
  • “If Ty Simpson can get hot ... I'm not convinced that Alabama is going to be able to run the ball.” – Bud Elliott [34:13]
  • “It's the Ty Simpson show and they pretty much ... need him to do everything ... And when he's playing well, it works. When he's not, they really don't have a counter.” – Tom Fornelli [35:12]

• Turnover Battle:

  • Indiana gives up the occasional deep pass—the path exists if Bama can hit those big plays. Bama must force turnovers to have a real chance.
  • If Bama can’t win the turnover margin, “there’s no way they win this game, in my opinion.” – Tom Fornelli [37:58]

• Ryan Williams X-factor:

  • Star receiver has been inconsistent and not often targeted. His ability to break out for big plays is in question.
  • “Last four games he has four catches for 63 yards ... No, he's not going to impact in this game. …he's like the third or fourth best receiver on this team. We're only fascinated with him because he had one great game against Georgia.” – Tom Fornelli [39:49]

Segment 4: Georgia vs. Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl)

[41:56–51:03]

Key Discussion Points

• Ole Miss’s Situation Under Pete Golding:

  • Lane Kiffin’s absence puts the playcalling and game management under new scrutiny—will Golding err on the conservative side in a close game?
  • “We don't know how good at that Golding is because we haven't seen it. ...Do they go a little more defensive head coach style where they're a little more conservative?” – Danny Kanell [41:56]
  • “Every single decision will be amplified ... I do think that's something to keep an eye on.” – Bud Elliott [43:11]

• Georgia’s First Matchup Domination:

  • UGA scored on all 8 possessions vs Ole Miss in the regular season.
  • “Statistically you look at a lot of the categories that I care about and of the eight remaining teams in the field, Ole Miss is the worst in all of them ... I just don't have a whole lot of faith defensively. ...I think they are the better team and I do think they will score a whole hell of a lot better points.” – Tom Fornelli [44:16]

• Personnel Returns & X-factors:

  • Georgia receives a potential boost with 6’4” WR Colbie Young returning.
  • “Colby Young seems to be back and that feels fairly significant as… a boost for a passing attack that already kind of cooked Ole Miss’s defense in the first game.” – Chip Patterson [45:55]
  • Stats: Zachariah Branch (73 receptions) vs UGA’s next three receivers combined (69). [47:16]
  • Kewan Lacey’s run game impact for Ole Miss could swing their fortunes, but UGA’s D is trending up.
    • “Last six quarters for Georgia, offensively, have not been, like, in love with... but ... they just haven't looked quite the same.” – Danny Kanell [50:36]

• Big Picture: Is UGA a Title Team?

  • “I had them in a small group of teams that could [win the title] playing at their best. I think the defense has come along. Gunner Stockton quietly has been a gamer ... Absolutely.” – Bud Elliott [48:40]
  • Jokingly trolling for motivation: “Georgia is a terrible football team. Frankly. They're not talented ... Gunner Stockton is all moxy and no ability, no talent, no brains. He's just... out there on vibes and vibes do not win national titles.” – Tom Fornelli [49:26]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On what wins CFP games:
  • “It doesn't get more man ball than Cristobal going up against Ryan Day in this kind of setting, in this kind of scenario.” – Chip Patterson [05:04]
• Tech’s schedule poked fun at:
  • “Sam Levitt was probably the best one, I think. Who's the second best? Is it Bachmire?” – Danny Kanell (laughter erupts) [23:21]
• On Georgia’s ‘alleged’ limitations (satirical):
  • “Georgia is a terrible football team. Frankly. They're not talented ... Gunner Stockton is all moxy and no ability, no talent, no brains. He's just... out there on vibes and vibes do not win national titles.” – Tom Fornelli [49:26]
• Motivation fodder:
  • “There you go, Kirby. Just what you needed for the video to play on New Year's Eve as you're getting all the team together to show them that last little bit of motivation.” – Chip Patterson [50:02]

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Time | Segment/Topic | |-------------|------------------------------------------------| | 04:45–16:57 | Miami vs. Ohio State Preview | | 19:39–31:31 | Oregon vs. Texas Tech Preview | | 31:31–40:28 | Alabama vs. Indiana Preview | | 41:56–51:03 | Georgia vs. Ole Miss Preview |

Summary & Takeaways

• All four quarterfinals promise trench warfare, with offensive/defensive lines likely to dictate outcomes across the board.
• Quarterback play and depth are seen as crucial for Ohio State, Alabama, and Oregon.
• Georgia is considered the surest favorite, but injuries and minor offensive lag are talking points.
• X-factors to watch:
  • Ohio State’s ability to run the ball and exploit Miami’s linebackers
  • Alabama’s reliance on Ty Simpson and need for turnovers against Indiana
  • Oregon’s offensive line versus Texas Tech’s defensive front
  • Pete Golding’s decisions for Ole Miss in ‘crunch time’ situations
• The hosts blend team-by-team tactical breakdowns with their trademark wit, ensuring fans walk away with concrete points to watch—and a few laughs.

For the full show with instant CFP reactions, catch Cover 3 on YouTube or your favorite podcast platform.