Cover 3 College Football Podcast

Episode: Championship Week LOCKS: Best Bets, Odds & Picks for College Football | Indiana-Ohio State & More!
Date: December 4, 2025

Overview

This episode delivers the hosts' best betting picks (“Locks”) and in-depth previews for the 2025 College Football Championship weekend. Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, and Bud Elliott analyze the biggest conference championship games—with insight on betting angles, coaching carousel news, and overall state of college football, including recruiting and playoff implications. The group debates spreads, totals, and moneyline underdogs, all in their usual energetic, bantering style.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Recruiting and National Signing Day Trends

[01:53–10:06]

• Spreading of Elite Talent:

  • Bud Elliott emphasizes how NIL, the transfer portal, and the 12-team playoff are dispersing top recruits across more programs.

    "21 different schools signed a five-star. That's a record... Pre-NIL, the record was 15." (Bud Elliott, 02:55)

  • Top quarterbacks went to non-traditional powers (Houston, Vanderbilt).

• Compression of Elite Classes:

  • The gap between top recruiting classes is shrinking.
  • Past “talent hoarding” among Bama/Georgia is waning.
  • Implications for the SEC as Big Ten and other conferences spend more.

• Notre Dame’s Stability:

  • Remarkable that ND had zero decommitments—shows new staff confidence and stability.

2. Review of Week 14 LOCKS & Splash Betting Contest

[10:06–16:31]

• Hosts review their records:
  • Bud Elliott: Hot week at 11–3.
  • Chip, Danny, and Tom share frustrations and highlight key winning/losing bets.
  • Fun banter about their standing in the season-long splash contest (~6,400 participants).

    "It would be a disservice, like Sarkeesian said, if I do not earn money if I go 52 and 32." (Bud Elliott, 12:15)

3. Big Ten Championship: Ohio State vs. Indiana (Indianapolis)

[17:34–25:06]

• Consensus:

  • All hosts confident in Ohio State covering -4.

    "I'm laying it with the Buckeyes..." (Bud Elliott, 17:57) "Lock agreement on Ohio State minus four." (Tom Fornelli, 18:40)

  • Indiana’s team total under is another favorite.
  • Danny prefers 1st half under (23.5).
  • Chip's quirky angle: Ohio State 3rd Q -0.5, Indiana 4th Q +0.5.

• Heisman Discussion:

  • Parlay suggestion on OSU/Sayain stats for longer odds vs. direct Heisman bet.
  • Debates over whether OSU’s QB Sayain is a true “difference-maker” or system product.

4. SEC Championship: Georgia vs. Alabama (Atlanta)

[25:34–31:13]

• Injury news significant:
  • Georgia's starting center Drew Bobo ruled out.
  • Alabama's LT Overton missing.
• Split Panel:
  • Bud and Danny on Alabama +3 ("Bama is a better team than Georgia").
  • Chip leans Georgia, citing their championship experience and ability to close games.
• First Half Under 24 is a consensus play.

5. Big 12 Championship: Texas Tech vs. BYU (Dallas/Arlington)

[31:35–34:43]

• Total and Side:
  • Tom and Danny: Under 49.5 (expect defenses and red zone struggles).
  • Tom: BYU team total under 17.5.
  • Bud: Likes Texas Tech to cover -12.5; thinks Tech may boost margin for playoff committee optics.

6. ACC Championship: Virginia vs. Duke (Charlotte)

[34:46–41:35]

• High-scoring expected:
  • Tom: Over 57.5; both defenses vulnerable.
  • Bud: Duke team total over 27.5.
  • Danny: Duke +4.5, fading coaching distractions for UVA (Manny Diaz possibly moving).
• Implications on bowl/playoff selection debated.
  • If Duke wins, their resume could rival JMU's and create playoff committee drama.

7. Friday/CUSA/Group of Five Championships (Quickfire Picks)

[44:31–55:08]

- Sun Belt: James Madison vs. Troy

• Tom: Troy team total under 12.5.
• Bud: Fights Tom, thinks Troy can get 2 TDs with Goose Crowder back.

- CUSA: Jacksonville State vs. Kennesaw St.

• Chip & Tom: Jacksonville State +2.5

- AAC: Tulane vs. North Texas

• Tom: North Texas -2.5
• Chip: North Texas team total over 34.5
• Danny: Tulane +2.5

- Mountain West: Boise State vs. UNLV

• Bud: Boise team total over 30.5

- MAC: Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan

• Tom: Miami (OH) +2.5

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On NIL/Parity:

  "Now everybody can buy players and... there can only be one highest paid player in everybody's class."
  — Bud Elliott, [04:40]

• On Fun in Betting:

  "Everybody's phone has a reminder."
  — Multiple, [38:35] (Following an impromptu Siri reminder about Miami’s bowl case)

• On the Big Ten Title:

  "I'm laying it with the Buckeyes... I just think that team's just a lot better than everybody else."
  — Bud Elliott, [17:57]

• On SEC Trends:

  "I think this is a Georgia team that has grown up. They started young. I think they're ready to..."
  — Chip Patterson, [30:25]

• On the ACC Dilemma:

  “It is possible that even if Duke wins, they do the Okie doke, call Virginia a quality win and just slide Duke in there.”
  — Chip Patterson, [40:36]

• Signature Banter:

  "Chip knows parlays are for suckers."
  — Tom Fornelli, [21:37]

  “Friday quad box status — maybe the last quad box of the season!”
  — Chip Patterson, [44:31]

• Spotify Wrapped Superfan:
  The crew marvels at a listener with over 25,000 minutes of show listened—"That's 17 days straight!" ([52:31]).

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Recruiting trends/NIL parity: [02:55–06:39]
• Season splash contest update: [10:06–12:09]
• Big Ten title game picks & Heisman chat: [17:34–25:06]
• SEC title, injuries, and picks: [25:34–31:13]
• Big 12 breakdown: [31:35–34:43]
• ACC breakdown, playoff implications: [34:46–41:35]
• Sun Belt & Group of Five locks: [44:31–55:08]
• MAC title preview: [55:55–57:15]
• Moneyline Sprinkles picks: [62:08–67:12]
• Coaching carousel rapid-fire: [67:26–73:58]
• Wrap-up & next show info: [74:47–end]

Sprinkles & Locks Summary

(Picks recap for easy reference)

• Ohio State -4 vs Indiana: Consensus
• Indiana TT Unders, 1st half Under, Ohio State 3rd Q, Indiana 4th Q: Varied locks
• Alabama +3 vs Georgia: Bud, Danny
• Georgia -2.5: Chip
• Georgia/Bama 1st Half Under 24: Tom, Chip
• Texas Tech -12.5 vs BYU: Bud
• BYU TT Under 17.5 & Full Under 49.5: Tom, Danny
• Miami (OH) +2.5 vs Western Michigan: Tom

Moneyline Sprinkles:

• Jacksonville State +120, Miami (OH) +120, Troy +1500: Tom
• Miami (OH) +120, Yale +1800: Bud
• Alabama +120, Indiana +175, Duke +170: Danny
• BYU +425, Indiana +175: Chip

Coaching Carousel & Final Thoughts

• Penn State, Kansas State, Utah, and others are in flux.
• Coaches using openings for raises is a recurring theme, with humor around the “person of interest” label for job hunts.
• Team is excited for a highly competitive, parity-laden championship weekend before hitting full “sicko mode” for the bowls.

Episode Takeaway

This episode offers a perfect snapshot of the College Football landscape as the playoff era shifts, with compelling analysis, sharp betting advice, original banter, and a front-row seat to both the chaos and fun of championship week.