College Football Playoff Rankings Predictions & Breakdown | Cover 3 College Football

Summary

Cover 3 College Football Podcast

Episode: College Football Playoff Rankings Predictions & Breakdown
Date: November 4, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott

Overview:

In this episode, the Cover 3 team dives deep into the anticipated first release of the 2025 College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings. The hosts don’t just debate which teams should be ranked where—they predict how the committee will sequence the contenders, analyze the pitfalls for every frontrunner, argue over resume strength, and navigate the conspiracy theories and human biases that shape the ranking process. They also highlight dark horse teams to watch, potential playoff spoilers, and programs with little to no CFP shot despite their current records.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Predicting the CFP Rankings: Not Just “Who’s Best,” But “What Will Happen”

[00:50–04:32]

• The hosts agree that the CFP rankings are unpredictable and shaped by a small committee's subjectivity.

  • Danny Kanell (02:06): “In all of my years of experience studying the College Football Playoff selection committee, I can guarantee you one thing. There is no way to pinpoint what they're going to do tonight.”

• Each host submits their predicted Top 12, stressing that this isn’t a “should be” ranking, but a read on the committee’s likely moves.

  Consensus at the Top:

  • Ohio State at #1, Indiana at #2, Texas A&M at #3.
  • Alabama and Georgia round out the top five, with debates about the pecking order and whether Indiana might get the top spot for theatrics.

  Disagreements Around the Edges:

  • Oregon, BYU, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Texas, Oklahoma all jockeying for positioning in the 6–12 range.
  • The Miami Hurricanes could jump Notre Dame due to a head-to-head win.
    Chip (07:25): “My prediction is... the committee will have Miami ahead of Notre Dame given the head to head result...”

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Resume Debates – What Matters Most?

[04:32–07:25, 14:27–20:27]

• Tom Fornelli (05:30): Explores if Indiana might leapfrog Ohio State due to their "best win" (over Oregon), but ultimately deems Ohio State’s “overall resume” more impressive.

• Committee philosophy: AP poll inertia vs. CFP committee’s sometimes unpredictable criteria.

  Memorable Quotes:

  • Bud Elliott (03:27): “The committee is not beholden to anything it did in a prior week. They really just, in my opinion, make it up as they go each week for this TV show. And then in the final week, they rig it... and reverse engineer the rest...”
  • Tom Fornelli (05:30): "If the Hoosiers are at number one, they're just saying, look at this, we're a little bit different."

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Landmines for Playoff Hopefuls—Key Trap Games

[13:11–20:27]

• Each host pinpoints the remaining biggest dangers for the top five:
  • Georgia: Hosting Texas—a potential upset, especially with Georgia’s pattern of slow starts.
    Tom (14:27): “That Texas game, it looms. I think that is one of the bigger games left...”
  • Alabama: Potential trouble vs. Oklahoma (with a volatile QB) and, as Danny (16:27) highlights, in the Iron Bowl rivalry at Auburn.
  • Texas A&M: Missouri and the rivalry in Austin vs. Texas.
    Chip (17:31): “...coming out of a buy undefeated on the road against... a very well coached Missouri... the job’s not done yet. Couple big challenges left.”

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Sorting Out the 6–9 Range: The Murkiest Playoff Contenders

[22:13 – 27:35]

• Ole Miss, Oregon, BYU, and Texas Tech are the most debated.

  • Danny Kanell (22:13): “They value the SEC the most... then it’s the Big Ten... BYU, though undefeated, probably comes in behind those.”
  • Bud Elliott (23:55): “Tonight could be interesting to see how much they value strength of schedule, or strength of record... BYU is actually number four right now in strength of record.”

  Metric Uncertainty:

  • Are they weighing “strength of record” vs. “quality wins” vs. “overall wins”?
  • Tom Fornelli (26:07): “Ole Miss’s resume... is clearly a bit stronger than the rest. Where I really kind of had to wonder... is if Oregon will be ahead of BYU.”

  Conspiracy or Incompetence?

  • Chip Patterson (27:35): “It is not conspiracy. It is incompetence. The process is too mundane... I do not think this thing is rigged…”

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Dark Horse/Outside Top 12 Teams to Watch

[30:54–39:17]
Each host picks a team outside the current Top 12 that could still surge into the playoff conversation:

• Washington Huskies:
  “Not 100% convinced they'll be in the top 25 tonight... But if you look at the rest of their schedule... they could be 9-2 going into that final weekend.”
  —Tom Fornelli (31:47)

• Duke Blue Devils:
  “Co-favorites to win the ACC after beating Clemson. ACC champion will be making the college ball playoff... Duke will be favored in all the remaining games.”
  —Bud Elliott (33:08)

• Michigan Wolverines:
  “Sitting exactly where they need to be... with a couple winnable games... maybe make a final push…”
  —Danny Kanell (34:29)

• USC Trojans:
  “Back home for the rest of the regular season, already a head-to-head win against Michigan... Table is set for a strong finish for USC.”
  —Chip Patterson (35:45)

  Light-hearted Moment:

  • Tom (38:09): “You picked USC because you’re madly in love with USC... you just, you will not listen to USC every time they tell you, nope, we’re not going to do it…”

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Teams With "No Shot": Bubble Burst Alert

[40:03–44:59]
The hosts highlight teams that will be ranked but are almost certainly not making the playoff.

• Texas Longhorns:

  • Danny Kanell (40:33): “Guess what? It’s time to sell the Texas Longhorns... The Texas Longhorns are cooked.”

• Virginia Cavaliers:

  • Bud Elliott (41:29): “Playing single score games against Cal, UNC, Washington State... Klotz gonna strike midnight on Cinderella... I don’t see this UVA team as a college football playoff caliber team.”

• Iowa Hawkeyes:

  • Tom Fornelli (42:17): “I am not saying Iowa is going to lose [to Oregon]... but I don’t think Iowa can beat both Oregon and then USC... there is no way a 9–3 Iowa team is getting into the college football playoffs.”

• Missouri Tigers:

  • Chip Patterson (43:20): “Missouri are just simply a shell of themselves... I do think Missouri is going to show up inside the top 25... a couple more weeks... and that’s a spot that opens up for someone else.”

  Group of Five Discussion:

  • Over/under 1.5 Group of Five teams in the Top 25?
    [44:59] All confidently take the under: “Might be zero.”

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Conspiracy and Process

• Bud Elliott ([03:27]): “...in the final week, they take and rig it and put whoever they want in and then... reverse engineer whatever the rest of the rankings are to justify their picks.”
• Chip Patterson ([27:35]): “It is not conspiracy. It is incompetence.”

Resume Debates

• Tom Fornelli ([05:30]): “Indiana’s second best win is a 53 point win at home over Illinois, the same Illinois team Ohio State beat on the road.”
• Danny Kanell ([22:13]): “They value the SEC the most and then it’s the Big Ten.”

Playoff Landmines

• Tom Fornelli ([14:27]): “Georgia... they come back in the second half to win... but that Texas game, it looms.”
• Danny Kanell ([16:27]): “It's at Auburn. It's a rivalry game and that defense is still one of the best in the country.”

Lower-Ranked Teams to Watch

• Bud Elliott ([33:08]): “Duke will be favored in all the remaining games... once they’re there, they're probably not playing a team that’s a lot more talented than them.”

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Important Timestamps

• 00:50–04:32: Top 12 CFP predictions & rationale
• 05:30–07:25: Debate: Ohio State vs. Indiana for #1
• 14:27–20:27: Landmines for top teams in Week 11 and beyond
• 22:13–27:35: Sorting challenging resumes (Ole Miss, Oregon, BYU, Texas Tech)
• 31:47–39:17: Dark horse teams outside the Top 12
• 40:03–44:59: Teams likely to be eliminated from CFP contention

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Final Thoughts & Takeaways

• There’s broad consensus at the top, but the resumes and human bias of the committee create volatility and controversy beyond the top five.
• Despite all the talk about resume analytics, human factors—brand perception, conference reputation, and sometimes even the need for “theatrics”—play a huge role in how the first rankings are set.
• Several teams outside the top 12, especially in the Big Ten and ACC, have plausible if unlikely playoff paths.
• The committee process is messy and subject to both inertia and last-minute “reverse engineering.”
• Some teams in the Top 25 are essentially walking dead in the playoff race; others (like Duke, Washington, and even USC) have a legitimate chance to surge.

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For full instant reaction:
Watch the hosts LIVE reacting to the CFP Rankings release: YouTube.com/Cover3 (Tuesday, 8:15pm ET).
And catch midweek Big Game Breakdowns and future analysis in your podcast feed.

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(Summary by Cover 3 College Football “superfan” — accurate, collegiate, and just the right balance of skepticism and hope.)

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

And welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. The that's Tom Fenelli, that's Bud Elliott, that's Danny Cannell. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you live on CBS Sports Network. Big day, boys. Big day in college football as we are looking ahead to the Tuesday night reveal of the very first set of college football rankings. College Football Playoff rankings. Now, of course, if you've been listening to the COVID 3 podcast, you've heard us hold the voters feet to the fire every single Monday with Pole Assassin on a pun for the review. But now we've got a whole other set and these are the rankings that will decide the college football playoffs. So over the course of the next hour, we're going to cut this a couple ways. First, we're going to start with our predictions again. Not what should happen, but what we think will happen with the very top of the College Football playoff rankings. We'll then look at some of the differences between our projections and the issues facing the teams in weeks ahead. We will look at who maybe is it dark horse to watch and who doesn't even have a shot. So Danny Canal, can you get us started? Can you show us in all of your wisdom what you think tonight's college Football playoff rankings are going to look like?

[C]

In all of my years of experience studying the College Football Playoff selection committee, I can guarantee you one thing. There is no way to pinpoint what they're going to do tonight. So this is the best guess possible. Ohio State, Indiana Tech, A and M, no shake up there at the top three. Next up, your one loss. SEC stacked up nice and neat because Alabama beat Georgia, Georgia beat Ole Miss. It's pretty easy there. Oregon, I do think comes in over BYU because they like the Big Ten better than the Big 12. Then it's nice and neat again. BYU over one loss, Texas Tech. And then you've got some blue bloods and those brands that are just too hard to ignore. Notre Dame followed by Texas, who did beat Oklahoma. I do think they will honor that head to head. And Oklahoma checking in at 12 in the initial top 12.

[B]

Ooh, see Danny's doing that thing right there. He's showing you that a committee that has just about a dozen individuals might be able to have some, some independent thinking as opposed to the AP Top 25 in ways that we have identified. They're not necessarily getting it done. All right, bud Elliot, why don't you show us your again the prediction of what the rankings will look like tonight. What's your top 12 look like?

[D]

All right, Chip, so here we go. Now first, I do want to say the committee is not beholden to anything that it did in a prior week. They really just, in my opinion, make it up as they go each week for this TV show. And then in the final week, they take and rig it and put whoever they want in and then they kind of like reverse engineer whatever the rest of the rankings are to justify their picks. So I think this is a really hard endeavor to do because I just have no idea what kind of agendas they're going to try to, to set here. So here we go. Ohio State 1, Indiana 2, Texas A&M 3, Bama 4, Georgia 5, BYU 6, Texas Tech 7, Ole Miss 8, Oregon 9, Texas 10, Notre Dame 11 and Oklahoma 12. Seems pretty reasonable. I think a top three is, is pretty much a lock for, for everybody in some order. I think maybe there's a chance to go Indiana over Ohio State. Cause you could of course jump Ohio State over Indiana if they beat Michigan if you want to justify the rankings or the resume point there later. But yeah, after three it gets really challenging and not in terms of who's in, but in terms of what order you want to have them in.

[B]

Yeah, we'll, we'll start to dive into that in a little bit. And Tom, before you go spoiler alert, you also have Ohio State at number one. Tom, when you were looking at this, did you think that if you are to subscribe to the Bud Elliott CFP and non tinfoil hat theorem theory and Bible, you know, if you are a follower then you would say yeah, they'll just do Indiana one cause it'll make waves, right? It was just like, oh look at the smart guys in the room who took their hats off and they really think for themselves. Only to know that These two, two teams will probably play each other in the Big Ten championship. You can swap it to whatever way you want to do it. Did you entertain, Tom, at any point the idea that for theatrics there would be an Indiana ahead of Ohio State, which I guess the argument would be the Oregon win is the best win in the country and that's what they would come out and they would tell us, I guess. But did you entertain that at all?

[E]

I didn't entertain that they would do it for theatrics, but I would maintain that if they do do it, it is theatrics. Because yeah, the argument for Indiana to be number one over Ohio State right now would be that, hey, their 10 point win on the road is more against Oregon is more impressive than Ohio State's best win, which is a seven point home win over Texas earlier in the year. But once you get past that top win, Indiana's second best win right now is a 53 point win at home over Illinois, the same Illinois team that Ohio State beat on the road. But the difference is Ohio State also has a road win over a Washington team that has a very good chance of being in the top 25. So while Indiana has the best win, I still think Ohio State's overall resume is more impressive than the Hoosiers, which will keep them at number one. So yeah, if the Hoosiers are at number one, they're just saying, look at this, we're a little bit different. But as you can see from my top 12, Danny, I don't know if it looks familiar, but you and I are on the same wavelength here because we have the exact same top. My reasoning for it was pretty similar. Like I think that you've got Ohio State, Indiana as your top two with Texas A and M the undefeated SEC team at third and then you slot Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss in based on who's beat who and it works out pretty simple to this point. So you keep it that way. Oregon has the one loss I do think, Danny, yes, they are going to appreciate that overall strength of schedule more with that road win against Penn State, which at the time was far more valuable than it is right now based on what's happened to Penn State since. But still it's an impressive win when you consider the context of it. And BYU it undefeated. They just don't have a win of that caliber to this point. And then you follow it up with Texas Tech, who BYU is playing this week, so we will see some movement there. And then Notre Dame, Texas, Oklahoma over the current leader in the ACC right now because I just don't think there's going to be an ACC team that the committee views is good enough at the moment to justify putting in the top 12.

[B]

Well, what if I told you I do now? Are they good enough to be in the top 12? I don't know. But are they positioned based on the wins and losses that they have so far to maybe rise to the top of those teams in the teens? Let's roll out my top 12. Again, my prediction of what the committee is going to do. Ohio State 1, Indiana 2 Texas A&M 3, Alabama 4, Georgia 5. Stop. Because coming up in a little bit we will let you know of those top five of which we are all in agreement that one through five, those are the teams, those are the orders. We'll give you the biggest landmines, the biggest spots where we think they could slip up. Now things were a little bit difficult as you get into that 6 through 9 range, but yes, I've got the Miami hurricanes at number 12. I do not have Notre Dame inside of my top 12. My prediction is much like having Texas ahead of Oklahoma, the committee will be making some stand on head to head results with teams with the exact same records. Just the fact that by beating Notre Dame even though it was all the way back in week one and even though it was on your home field and only by three points, that beating Notre Dame will be a way that the Miami Hurricanes at 6 and 2 will be able to have their spot held up now like Texas and Oklahoma. The committee can do this knowing that there's a lot more results to go. And speaking of landmines, there's a couple of them that are left right there on Miami schedule. But for this first set of rankings, release my prediction, not my, my thought of what should happen, but my prediction is that the committee will have Miami ahead of Notre Dame given the head to head result between teams that have the exact same records. So that means you're taking fpi, you're taking your power rankings, you're taking your bpi, whatever you've got, you're throwing it out the window because those are the results on the screen and, and that's the way they're going to stack them up. So just a thought, just an expectation. Danny, are you simmering on something?

[C]

No, I just my reaction was I that would be incredible for the Miami Hurricanes who most of their fan base and myself and I think us included feel like their chance of getting into the College Football Playoff is infinitesimal I think that would all of a sudden, and that's what I was preaching before they lost to SMU was, boy, you better hope if you're Notre Dame that you're not comparing your resume next to Miami's because once, if the, if the whole season goes, remember they have Pitt, who's a really good team coming up ahead of them. That could be a top 25 win when they play them. If you start stacking them up, I think their resumes are very, very similar and they own the head to head. So I was kind of cautioning Notre Dame fans, but that was before they lost smu. But the difference in this year and last year is those two out of three losses came the last three weeks of the season. They still have several games where they can put those in the rear view. And I still think people would look at and say, you know what, Louisville and SMU, those could be nine, 10 win teams. Shoot, you could have Louisville potentially as an 11 win team. I don't think those look that bad. So I love the way you're thinking. I didn't see it coming. I, I, I'll be surprised if the committee has that in tonight and if they do, some Miami Hurricane fans and, and their players and coaches might have some renewed hope for what potentially could.

[B]

Come and go ahead.

[E]

Tom, what kind of message does it send, though, if the committee has a ACC team that isn't likely to win the ACC ahead of the five or six teams ahead of it in the standings who actually have a chance to win the league?

[B]

I don't, I don't think you care about sending messages to tiebreaker scenarios or conference title races. I mean, because that's what's infinitesimal. Danny what's infinitesimal is their chances to win the ACC because they've lost to, to other contenders. I mean, it's like the worst possible thing that could happen in terms of pursuing a conference championship. But the, the reasons why Miami would have a chance to be able to carry this out and he just, at this point, I'm just talking big picture would be a, would be a win against Notre Dame and 10 wins on the season. That's all. It would have nothing to do with what happened in ACC play. I think that would be the argument along the way. So I don't know about what message it sends, but that's at least Miami's case as I would see it right now. Coming up on the other side, we had the top five teams all the same, so where could we see some shake up there because if college football has shown us anything, there's no way that holds still for the rest of the season. What are the biggest danger slip up spots for the top five teams in our predicted rankings? Give you all that and more next.

[F]

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[G]

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[E]

Good luck.

[B]

Back here on the COVID 3 podcast live on CBS Sports Network. As we are continuing to look ahead Tuesday night, we are going to be rolling out the very first set of College Football Playoff rankings from the selection committee. And while we are predicting and previewing what things are going to look like, what about reaction? That's right, 8:15pm Eastern time. Right around there we will be going live on YouTube.com cover three, breaking down live reaction to the rankings as well as a little bit of a look ahead to some of the games in week 11 that will have the most significance. And so on that note, I wonder if any week 11 games are going to show up in this next segment. So all five of us, I mean four of us had the same top five as it pertained to our expectations. We all predicted that the top three would be Ohio State, followed by Indiana and Texas A and M. And we all predicted that Alabama would be at 4 and Georgia would be at 5. And so Tom Fornelli, our next challenge is to find the mines, find the landmines. The potential slip up spots of those top five teams, it can be in week 11. It could be at the end of the season. Give me one game that could be very dangerous for a top five team. And in terms of messing up their.

[E]

College football playoff outlook, I mean, honestly, when you look at the remaining schedules of these teams, I think there's only a couple spots where you really have genuine concern that these teams could screw it up. And so I think the most dangerous one is not this week, but it is next week when Georgia's hosting Texas. And we know that Georgia has a pretty good history against Texas. They beat him twice last year, once in the regular season and then again in the SEC championship game. But this is also a Georgia team that we've seen kind of play with fire all season long where they're, you know, been trailing or tied at halftime in numerous games and they come back in the second half to win. We saw it against Florida, we saw it against Ole Miss. We've seen it against everybody that they played. So I do wonder if maybe this week's game at Mississippi State's a bit of a trap game because maybe you just get caught overlooking it. But I feel like once you wake up, you probably come back, storm back and take care of the Bulldogs in that one. But that Texas game, it looms. I think that is one of the bigger games left on the schedule for anybody, not just Georgia or the teams in our top five.

[D]

Bud, I would say let's take Alabama and Oklahoma, right? Like the same reason I took like, and I don't think this is going to happen. But again, these are top five teams, so none of these losses are particularly likely to happen. So if we have to pick potential trouble spots, Oklahoma does have a quarterback in John Mattier who is very up and down, but the ups are really good when they're there. And it's not totally crazy to think that Oklahoma, which might have the best defense in the country outside of Columbus, Ohio, could go into Tuscaloosa, really give Alabama a lot of problems. And Bama doesn't have much pass rush this year. So maybe Mater is able to run around like not totally impeded by Bama's defense, make things happen and they win some kind of ugly game in Tuscaloosa. I got in looking at this Bama schedule, that's kind of the one, okay? They have the athletes to check Bama's offense and actually really get after Ty Simpson. And maybe if Mattier does enough, maybe that's how you could see it happen.

[C]

I think it's interesting. I think it's interesting. I'll go back to Bama. None of us, I think we just glossed over the LSU game, which I would agree. I think that is a game you gloss over. But I will circle the rivalry game at the end of the season because we've seen Hugh Freeze fired, we've seen DJ Durkin take over the the defense and now he's the head coach. Maybe it just helps to have one play caller on the offensive side of the ball. Maybe that's what Auburn needs is some continuity as opposed to three guys calling which have been a disaster all year long. But even more importantly, it's at Auburn. It's a rivalry game and that defense is still one of the best in the country. Where I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Auburn could pull off some miraculous type win that we've seen before in this game. And who knows if there's a fourth down conversion at the end of it, if there's some sort of controversy, if there's something in this game. But I still think Auburn is one and you can laugh at it and say, well, Auburn's not that good. This is the sec. We've seen a lot of games this year that have surprised us because the gap between who's great and who's not great is not that big in the sec.

[B]

Danny, now you're going to have me going back to look up the jalen Milroe Gravedigger 4th down conversion. Cause that's that kind of like you're talking about the narrow margins there. That Alabama team could have been done right? They could have been in big, big trouble. I think Brad Nestler had a great call. I think he said fourth and a mile, you know, like be able to get there, set the stage. That would be one to look at. I definitely agree with you there. 2023, that game I believe was in Jordan Hare. 2025, we are back there in Jordan Hare. I, I actually think that the Iron bowl for all of the mystical vibes he regions would scare me even more than playing in Bryant Denny Stadium against Oklahoma. But I'm surprised that an undefeated team with a couple of tough road tests hasn't been mentioned yet. Because when I I ranked nine games that were potential slip up spots, I wanted to have all five teams represented and what I found was that Texas A and M held spot number one and spot number two. And I understand that Missouri is going to a true freshman quarterback then that is going to create a very, very difficult uphill challenge for the Tigers as it pertains to scoring against a very good Texas A and M defense. But it's still coming out of a buy undefeated on the road against a Missouri team that I think is very well coached. So between that game and of course the rivalry game at the end of the year in Austin against Texas and I think that Texas A&M's College Football Playoff future seems very sound right now, I'm not going to project that they are going to miss the playoff. I think Texas A and M will make the College Football Playoff. But if we want to talk about tricky spots along the way where things could get a little dicey for Texas A and M. I had Texas A and M at Texas, Texas A and M at Missouri, Georgia, Texas and of course Ohio State, Michigan for reasons you know, but like those are the ones that stood out to me as the top tier. Aggies have done great work to put themselves in the position to be here. But if you want to talk about winning the SEC in addition to just making the cfp, man, it feels like the job's not done yet. Couple big challenges left.

[E]

I, I, I'm not really with you on the Texas A and M Missouri game. I, I do not think that's going to be a very big deal for the Aggies. And I mean I'll go back to last year. Remember what Texas A and M did to Missouri. I mean it was clearly the much better team last year. And if you look at the Tigers right now, I thought they were very surprising early in the year I thought Beau Pribula was playing well. But if you look back at it now, Beau Pribula is gone and who has Missouri beaten this year? Its best win is either Auburn, South Carolina or Kansas. I don't know if I'm really, truly terrified of the Tigers at this point. So the reason I didn't really consider A and M to be in one of these big games is because they are still undefeated. They've got a lot more wiggle room. Whereas you look at Alabama and Georgia, they can only afford to, they can't really afford another loss at this point.

[B]

100%. Coming up on the other side, we turn our attention to the most volatile portion of the rankings. It's a spot where everyone seems to agree on what teams are involved, but no one agrees on the order except Danny and Tom. We'll get into all that and more next back here on the COVID 3 podcast live on CBS Sports Network. Looking ahead to Tuesday night's release on of the first set of College Football Playoff rankings. Now we began this process, getting ready to break this down with you by each filling out our own prediction of what the committee is going to do. And as we did, we discovered some truths about this picture, some questions that the committee will have to answer, and among them is the way that you are going to sort the following teams. Ole Miss, Oregon, BYU and Texas Tech. Now, of course, BYU is the lone undefeated team in there. Though looking at the Cougar's resume, it's a little light on those quality wins that Texas Tech has a great win at Utah, Oregon, obviously the Penn State win hasn't aged as well, but we are recognizing what is a very strong team and also just one loss on the season to one of the best teams in the country. And Ole Miss, well, they have a win against Oklahoma. They've got a close loss at Georgia. Very, very complicated resumes. So, Danny Cannell, I want you to take us through sort of either your thinking of how these teams stack up against each other and sort of less of a prediction of how the committee's going to do it. But if the committee's calling you up and they say, hey, Danny, we got you on speakerphone right now. We want you to help us sort this thing out. When you're looking at this group of four teams, how do you think different, different values should be weighed?

[C]

Oh, I, I tell you why I think I had them stacked up because they value the SEC the most and then it's the Big Ten. So you'll see Ole Miss, then Oregon and then they value preseason. Who have they read about the most would be Texas Tech. And then they could have BYU coming in right behind them even though they are undefeated. I think it's the human bias aspect that comes into it, but I do think out of this group, I think Ole Miss, I think their resume has gotten significantly better with the win against Oklahoma, especially now that Oklahoma beat Tennessee. Like, that win does look like the of these teams that are out there, they played Georgia close. It wasn't a horrible loss. It was on the road. It was, you know, tight in the fourth quarter. I think they look at that, you know, the LSU win doesn't cold hold quite as much as weight. And you know, they've been in pretty much control of all the other games. They have been able to avoid the disaster. So I think of these, I think this is the easiest one to put Ole Miss at the forefront. Where it does get a little bit interesting is, and you mentioned it before Oregon, and I've heard quite, you know, quite a few people kind of souring on Oregon saying, well, who have they beaten? And you know, even coming off their last win this past weekend, which was in bad weather, but it was Wisconsin, and we saw other teams dominate Wisconsin more handily. Even a Maryland team beat them more significantly. So if they don't watch the game, if they're not familiar the conditions, I could see them ding in Oregon, potentially a little bit lower, and then they always have the back pocket. What Bud was kind of alluding to of the right, the remaining schedule. If they win those games, we can bump them up when we need to. So I, I almost look at Oregon expecting them to be a little bit lower than the AP has them because of that aspect.

[B]

Bud, do you agree?

[D]

So in parts, yeah, I, I, I do think that they definitely value the SEC and to some extent the Big Ten, but I don't know if the committee wants to catch that heat for doing so in the first week of November. You can always just rig it in the final week like we've seen them do in the past. So, like, if I'm going to do that, why am I going to show my cards this early instead? I think tonight could be interesting to see, like, how much are they valuing certain new metrics? So we, we saw them in the offseason say they're going to place more emphasis on strength of schedule, on quality games, etcetera, but we don't know, like, is that strength of schedule? Is it strength of record? You know, byu, who I'm apparently the high man on here, which is kind of wild considering how much hate I get online from BYU fans on Twitter, hey, Coug Nation, they're actually number four right now in strength of record in the country. So if the committee leans on strength of record, which is basically saying, hey, yes, the schedule is only 46 in the country, however, it is hard to go undefeated against this, you know, this slate, which I believe strength of record does not. Like, it's not strength of what you've done. It's the strength of what you've won. And that's important, right? It's not a power rating. It's not, hey, like, it doesn't really take, take into account they've won, what, one, two, three, like, you know, three or four games here by a single score. They don't really care. They just care that you've won against that schedule. So that, that's why I have BYU at 6 in my cause I think they are going to lean on that number four strength of record, you know, quite a bit, you know, for byu, Texas Tech, I don't know, like, kind of just having there with byu, Ole Miss and Oregon. Ole Miss still has a couple games left. You know, that. That should be fine. This is extremely tight. I'm. I am legitimately interested to see what they do tonight, only because it might give us a little bit of glimpse of which metrics they're deciding to value.

[B]

Tom, do you agree that this is the tier? I mean, I identified it based on the way that we all put our rankings together, where you had that top five, you had this group of four, and then you've got sort of like the rest of it. We asked for 12, obviously there's a 13 and a 14 and a full 25 that'll be released tonight. Do you agree with this as. As kind of a good grouping as we look at the College Football Playoff rankings set to be released? And, and how do you think the. The committee will weigh all these different resumes?

[E]

I mean, for the most part, yeah, I. We talked about the top five separately. For me personally, the top six was very easy as Danny went over with Ole Miss. I think when you get to this tier of teams, Ole Miss's resume overall is clearly a bit stronger than the rest. Where I really kind of had to wonder what was going to happen and I'm really still not very sure of, is I had Oregon ahead of BYU and Texas Tech in my rankings, But I am not convinced that Oregon will be ahead of BYU because a BYU is undefeated while Oregon has a loss on its name. And when you do compare their resumes overall, even if you remove the losses from it, you can argue that looking back right now, BYU's win over Utah, considering how Utah has played the last few weeks, is better than any win Oregon has on its resume to this point. So I could see them putting BYU above the Ducks because they're undefeated and because they have what they feel to be a better win, even if they. They don't have the same overall strength of schedule. And then for me, I think that no matter what, you have to put Texas Tech behind byu because even though they have similar resumes, they both have an impressive win over Utah, although Texas Tech got theirs on the road. I think that Texas Tech having that loss is what hinders it, whereas BYU is still undefeated. So the only real question here for me will be, is BYU ahead of Oregon? And then if Oregon will also be behind Texas Tech, if they are, because that will be the interesting question because then when you start comparing the Ducks to the Red Raiders, you can see a lot more things in the Red Raiders favor at this point compared to when you start looking at who they beat.

[B]

There's been a lot of allegations of rigged, lot of conspiracy that has already been spewed upon this wonderful sports platform here across the last 33 minutes. So I want it read into the record that it is not conspiracy. It is incompetence. Okay? The process is too mundane for there to actually be a heavy hand. They can wave over everything and put these magical pieces together. Every committee member fills out a 25. They put together a composite, they group them in order, and they debate them in groups of four or five or six teams at a time. They wait till they have agreement, then they slide down to the next pot. There are reasons why things get so convoluted, and it's because it's a small body that can get easily swayed to one extreme or the other. But no, I do not think this thing is rigged. I do not think they're thinking hard or working hard enough for the rigging. I understand. I'm looking at all three of you guys. I feel like I'm. I'm the only one that has not got my tinfoil hat on. But I truly believe it is just. It is an inability to commit to a more detailed process, not a grand overarching conspiracy.

[E]

Chip has been bought and paid for. Boys, we've lost him. He's gone. He's on the other side now.

[D]

Maybe. Maybe you're the only one wearing the tinfoil hat, Chip.

[B]

Oh, we'll see. We'll see if. We'll see if Miami does end up ahead of Notre Dame. Maybe I was the one on the inside. Maybe I'm the one that's being leaked the information from inside the committee room. I got my earpiece on one here talking to you and the other in Grapevine, Texas, where they'll be rolling it out again. A reminder Tonight, Tuesday night, 8:15pm Eastern time, [e-mail] cover3, we will be giving you our live reaction to the rankings as they are revealed then, as well as a little bit of a reset of what the differences mean and what's ahead for all of the teams involved. Well, coming up on the other side, let's look outside the. The top 10. Let's look outside the top 12. Let's look at teams that are going to be a little bit further down in the committee's rankings that we think or should be teams to keep an eye on all that and more Next.

[H]

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[I]

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[B]

Back here on the COVID 3 podcast live on CBS Sports Network as we continue to look ahead to the College Football Playoff rankings. The College Football Playoff picture new set of rankings coming out on Tuesday night, but there are some teams that might be fringe on the top 25, definitely outside of the top 10 or top 12 that we've been focusing on so far that could still very much be a player. So over the course of the rest of the show we've got two different conversations. First here, teams that we should keep an eye on that could be a bigger player over the course of the next month and then a little bit later, teams who might technically be in the mix but you got no shot. Just go ahead and plan that your holiday will be spent outside the cfp. So Tom Fornelli, who's got your eye as a team that is outside of the top 10, outside of the top 12, but could end up continuing to rise in the weeks ahead?

[E]

Yeah, not only is my team outside of the top 12, I'm not 100% convinced they'll be in the top 25 tonight when the first set of rankings come out. I'm talking about the Washington Huskies, who are currently ranked in the AP poll towards the bottom of the poll and they are 6 and 2 on the season, meaning they have very little margin of error left. They basically have to win out to have a shot to earn an at large bid because the odds of them getting to The Big Ten championship game are somewhere between slim and none right now with two conference losses. But if you look at the rest of their schedule like they're at Wisconsin this week, which is a dead team walking, and then they get Purdue at home and another road game against ucla, which is another team that is currently under an interim administration after firing their coach earlier in the year. It's not until that final weekend of the season when they get Oregon coming to Husky Stadium that they have an actual test left on their schedule. So I could see a very realistic scenario where the Huskies are nine and two going into that final weekend. Just kind of hanging around the periphery of the top 12 at that point. And then beating Oregon at home to finish the season might also serve the purpose of knocking Oregon out of the playoff field in Washington, leaping in to take their place. I think that the Huskies are a team that we aren't really paying much attention to that maybe we should just keep an eye on down the stretch because the schedule plays to their benefit.

[B]

Bud.

[D]

Tom, that's a great pick. I actually had Washington as well. It makes all the sense in the world. Oregon has not beaten a team so far as good as Washington. So like this idea that Oregon's just going to roll over Washington, we don't actually know that. Like we know Oregon can smash bad teams and we'll see what they do this weekend at Iowa, as you said. But my pick here is actually a team that got a lot of buzz on Instagram. But la college football when I had my playoff projection this week, it's the Duke Blue Devils who are now co favorites to win the ACC after beating Clemson. And yes, the ACC champion will be making the college ball playoff. Barring something absolutely just insane that I really can't model out on the show right now. Duke will be favored in all the remaining games. That doesn't mean you're going to win, obviously. Like it's the acc. It's kind of the Wheel of Destiny thing we have going on every week. But y' all like Duke is very likely to make it to the conference championship game. They have a nice quarterback in Darian Mensa. I mean, they're be favored at UConn, they'll be favored hosting Virginia. They'll be favored at Chips Carolina Tar Heels. And we favored home against Wake Forest 7 and 1. They don't have all the tiebreakers, but they would have quite a few of them. And I think they have the best path to make the AC championship game. And once they're there, they're probably not playing a team that's a lot more talented than them because Miami's very unlikely to get there. So I think they got a real shot to make this playoff kind of out of nowhere.

[B]

Dk, what do you make of that?

[C]

I love it. I hey man, give me Duke, give me Manny Diaz. I think there are dangerous team. Darian Metz has been playing as good as anybody in the country right now. But I am so, so glad that a couple of you guys had Washington because I have a team that beat Washington pretty handsomely, including four interceptions off the Mod Williams, their quarterback. The Michigan Wolverines are sitting right exactly where they need to be. And with a couple winnable games against Northwestern and Maryland. Yes, I know they're both on the road and they should be 9 and 2 before they play host to a team I don't know that they've beat four times in a row. Why not just make it five? Ohio State, they don't even. Maybe they don't even care about this game. They're like, hey, we don't get like there could be resting up for a Big Ten championship run or Michigan could do exactly what they did last year with no game a chance. Justice Haynes lost for a little bit. He's going to have surgery. Maybe he potentially comes back for that one. But he's an incredible running back. I don't even know if it matters that much as they've got a pretty good replacement in Marshall coming right behind him who had 185 yards and three touchdowns. We know the kind of weapon Bryce Underwood as well. I think the Wolverines are kind of in a lurking position, setting up nice to maybe make a final push here in the back end of the season.

[B]

Man, Danny did such a good job setting that up. You know, he did the like. I'm gonna pick the team that beat the team that y' all are excited about. Well, I'm gonna pick the team that beat the team that Danny's excited about. That beat the team that Tom and Butter excited about. Okay, usc, it spent a decent amount of time this season complaining about travel and whether it was the timetable or when you played or. Or how many time zones you had to travel across. Well, get comfy Trojans because you're back home. Because for the foreseeable future, at least until the end of the regular season, the USC Trojans will be in the Pacific time zone. And that means that as they are just a two loss team coming back to the west coast, they have given themselves a chance to run the table and finish 10 and 2. Now that already does include, as I mentioned, a head to head win against the Michigan Wolverines, a very big important part of this. But it will also include what could be an absolutely massive victory taking on the Oregon Ducks in Eugene. So I am sitting here telling you that we need to watch out for the USC Trojans, but I am also acknowledging that if they cannot beat the Oregon Ducks on November 22nd in Eugene, they are not going to be a part of this picture. But given the fact that we have seen such wild fluctuations from USC ceiling and its floor, even against quality teams, I think that there's at least a chance that they can get it all going in the right direction and be able to go in there and get a win. So for USC to end up at 6 and 2, I think it before the year you would have signed up for that given the games that you've played in, the slate that you've gone through. And now they've got it all set up for them. Now can they take care of business now that they don't have to worry about changing their clocks or too many miles on an airplane? That's up to Lincoln Riley, that's up to Jaden Maeve and the rest of this USC team. But certainly the table does seem like it is set for a strong finish for usc. Also interesting, we just mentioned three Big Ten teams. I mean, Tom, is that because we believe that the Big Ten kind of has room for that fourth team in there? Like what, why do you think it is about the breakdown where again, not talking to each other at all before the show? We, we all picked, we all at least identified Big Ten teams and across the four of us, we've got three different ones.

[E]

Well, I mean, I don't know exactly what it is. All I know is that you picked USC because you're madly in love with USD and you have been madly in love with USC for a decade now. No matter what they tell you and you're just, you will not listen to USC every time they tell you, nope, we're not going to do it. Nope, we're going to fall. But you still want to believe. But I think as for the greater point, it's just that, yeah, we know who the top three are in the Big Ten right now. We definitely know who the top two are. And you have to think that if the Big Ten is going to get a fourth team, you just start looking for a candidate of who that could possibly be. And right now there are a lot of teams that are in the running for it still, even though they're all imperfect. So I mean, I still believe the greater likelihood is that the Big Ten ends up with three teams and none of the teams that we have mentioned ends up as the fourth Big Ten team in the playoff. But I do think if you're looking for a candidate outside the top 10, these are the ones you want to look at because they just don't have the resumes right now to be ranked higher than where they will be.

[D]

It it also kind of presupposes that Oregon is in and there's also a shot that Oregon does not get in, like the Big Ten might have three and the third might be one of the teams we just mentioned.

[B]

It's a very good point. Oregon is less than a touchdown favorite in Iowa City against the Iowa Hawkeyes on big time on CBS. Very, very excited for that on Wednesday, 11am Eastern time. That, of course, will be one of our big games that we're getting in. And for the big game breakdown, YouTube.com cover3 we are live Wednesday at 11am of course, get your pot wherever you get your podcast. Podcast will hit the feed after that. Well, coming up on the other side, from teams ranked a little lower that you need to keep your eye on to teams that are ranked, it might be time for them to hit the streets. We'll give you all that and more.

[E]

Next.

[B]

Back here on the COVID 3 podcast live on CBS Sports Network. Now we've given you our prediction for what Tuesday night's College Football Playoff rankings are going to look like. We've discussed some of the points in the rankings that lead to the biggest debates, giving you someone lower who you need to keep your eye on. But let's take it the other way. Who is going to show up in these rankings on Tuesday night that you think has no chance to make the College Football Playoff? Dk, why don't you get us started?

[C]

Feel like I've read the tea leaves on the Texas Longhorns pretty accurately most of the season earlier, saying it was going to be bumpy with Arch Manning but then buying him back from day trader Danny before the Oklahoma game. The start of this run they've been on. Guess what? It's time to sell the Texas Longhorns because I know it's this massive win over Vanderbilt, which by the way, you almost blew the lead, but you are coming off back to back overtime wins against Kentucky and Mississippi State. Now I get you get a bye week, but then you got to go to Athens. You're telling me that Kirby Smart And Glenn Schumann are going to come up with a defensive game plan that's going to have Arch a little bit uncomfortable in that one. I don't even know if Arkansas is a given in a rivalry game where Arkansas would love nothing more than to knock off Texas, followed by a rivalry game against one of the best teams and defenses in the country. The Texas Longhorns are cooked.

[B]

Bud, let's go.

[C]

Okay.

[D]

I'm going to Charlottesville where UVA has won 1, 2, 3. They had won four single score games in a row, including three of those in overtime last week. They were about to make it five and they had a pick six to seal the deal there against Cal. I mean, look, we're playing single score games against Cal, unc, Washington State, Louisville, Florida State. Guys, Klotz gonna strike midnight on Cinderella at some point and I think it probably happens this week or next week or just finish or maybe in all three of those games. And if still not, I think it'll happen in the AC Championship game. I, I don't see this uva team as a college ball playoff caliber team. I don't have in my top 35 my power rating. So they are like the Luxbox team of the year so far and we'll see if that continue. Look, it's college football. It does happen, but I don't think it's likely to happen.

[B]

Tom.

[E]

I'm not as not going as far out on a limb as Danny is. I'm more in Bud's range. We talked about a lot of Big Ten teams that might be outside the top 12 this week that we think have legitimate shot of possibly getting a bid to the playoff. Well, I'm going to go for one of the playoff teams who might be outside the top 12 this week and probably won't be in the top 12 at any point this year. I'm talking about the Iowa Hawkeyes. Yes, they are hosting Oregon this weekend on CBS in a huge game. And I am not saying Iowa is going to lose that game. Iowa very Mel very well might win because going into Kinnick and playing is a lot like going into Austin. There's a lot of people, they're all loud and they're all right there on top of you. It is not an easy place to play. Just ask Indiana who had their worst game of the season there earlier this year. It's just I don't think Iowa can beat both Oregon and then go on the road and beat USC the very next week. They might win one of those games. They're not going to win two and there is no way a 9 and 3 Iowa team is getting into the college football playoffs. So it's been a great season and it'll still be a great season, but playoff? Nah.

[B]

Tom, I'm so glad that you pushed back earlier when I circled Texas A and M at Missouri and you pointed to Missouri's issues because not only is it going to expose my hypocrisy, for which I apologize, but it really sets up the team that is still in this that I think's got no chance to make the College Football Playoff and that is the Missouri Tigers, who are just simply a shell of themselves from earlier in the season. Yes, we lose Beau Pribula for the rest of the year to an injury. We've seen Ahmad Hardy, the superstar running back, slow down as he's gotten into SEC play and the competition has gotten tougher and tougher. Missouri is still a salty defensive team, as we have seen, even when they are shorthanded. However, I do think that against this remaining schedule, there are likely multiples of losses and an 8 and 4 team is not going to make it, especially not Missouri. With the absence of quality wins, you're looking at the best victories being against teams that are likely going to flirt with bowl eligibility. So while at 6 and 2 with only losses to good ranked teams, I do think Missouri is going to show up inside of the top 25 when the college Football Playoff selection committee releases their new rankings. I think we get a couple more weeks into this and that's going to be a spot that opens up for someone else. One last thought before we go. Danny Canal, do you think over under one and a half, group of six schools in tonight's top 25 under? I was going to say it might be zero.

[C]

Yeah, I was going to say under pretty easily.

[B]

Yeah. This is going to be something that's interesting to watch because again, the fringe of those rankings is a spot where the AP voters, I think, might be a little bit more kind to grabbing a team from the American College Football Playoff selection Committee. They're already giving them a spot in the tournament. You know, like they don't have to owe them anything, especially here on November 4th. So something to maybe keep an eye on if you're looking for some intrigue in the 20s. Now, if you want to talk about intrigue, if you want to talk about these Tuesday night College Football Playoff rankings will come and join us because we are going to be live around 8:15pm Eastern Time. YouTube.com cover3 with an instant reaction to the College Football Playoff rankings. Then Wednesday it'll be on to Big Game Breakdown. And and we made it easy for you because if you scan that QR code that you see on your screen, it'll give you all the options to subscribe and download the COVID 3 podcast. Wherever you get your podcast, head on over to YouTube.com cover3 and subscribe.

[J]

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[B]

Experian.