Cover 3 College Football Podcast

Episode: College Football Playoff Rankings Predictions & Breakdown
Date: November 4, 2025
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott

Overview:

In this episode, the Cover 3 team dives deep into the anticipated first release of the 2025 College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings. The hosts don’t just debate which teams should be ranked where—they predict how the committee will sequence the contenders, analyze the pitfalls for every frontrunner, argue over resume strength, and navigate the conspiracy theories and human biases that shape the ranking process. They also highlight dark horse teams to watch, potential playoff spoilers, and programs with little to no CFP shot despite their current records.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Predicting the CFP Rankings: Not Just “Who’s Best,” But “What Will Happen”

[00:50–04:32]

• The hosts agree that the CFP rankings are unpredictable and shaped by a small committee's subjectivity.

  • Danny Kanell (02:06): “In all of my years of experience studying the College Football Playoff selection committee, I can guarantee you one thing. There is no way to pinpoint what they're going to do tonight.”

• Each host submits their predicted Top 12, stressing that this isn’t a “should be” ranking, but a read on the committee’s likely moves.

  Consensus at the Top:

  • Ohio State at #1, Indiana at #2, Texas A&M at #3.
  • Alabama and Georgia round out the top five, with debates about the pecking order and whether Indiana might get the top spot for theatrics.

  Disagreements Around the Edges:

  • Oregon, BYU, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Texas, Oklahoma all jockeying for positioning in the 6–12 range.
  • The Miami Hurricanes could jump Notre Dame due to a head-to-head win.
    Chip (07:25): “My prediction is... the committee will have Miami ahead of Notre Dame given the head to head result...”

Resume Debates – What Matters Most?

[04:32–07:25, 14:27–20:27]

• Tom Fornelli (05:30): Explores if Indiana might leapfrog Ohio State due to their "best win" (over Oregon), but ultimately deems Ohio State’s “overall resume” more impressive.

• Committee philosophy: AP poll inertia vs. CFP committee’s sometimes unpredictable criteria.

  Memorable Quotes:

  • Bud Elliott (03:27): “The committee is not beholden to anything it did in a prior week. They really just, in my opinion, make it up as they go each week for this TV show. And then in the final week, they rig it... and reverse engineer the rest...”
  • Tom Fornelli (05:30): "If the Hoosiers are at number one, they're just saying, look at this, we're a little bit different."

Landmines for Playoff Hopefuls—Key Trap Games

[13:11–20:27]

• Each host pinpoints the remaining biggest dangers for the top five:
  • Georgia: Hosting Texas—a potential upset, especially with Georgia’s pattern of slow starts.
    Tom (14:27): “That Texas game, it looms. I think that is one of the bigger games left...”
  • Alabama: Potential trouble vs. Oklahoma (with a volatile QB) and, as Danny (16:27) highlights, in the Iron Bowl rivalry at Auburn.
  • Texas A&M: Missouri and the rivalry in Austin vs. Texas.
    Chip (17:31): “...coming out of a buy undefeated on the road against... a very well coached Missouri... the job’s not done yet. Couple big challenges left.”

Sorting Out the 6–9 Range: The Murkiest Playoff Contenders

[22:13 – 27:35]

• Ole Miss, Oregon, BYU, and Texas Tech are the most debated.

  • Danny Kanell (22:13): “They value the SEC the most... then it’s the Big Ten... BYU, though undefeated, probably comes in behind those.”
  • Bud Elliott (23:55): “Tonight could be interesting to see how much they value strength of schedule, or strength of record... BYU is actually number four right now in strength of record.”

  Metric Uncertainty:

  • Are they weighing “strength of record” vs. “quality wins” vs. “overall wins”?
  • Tom Fornelli (26:07): “Ole Miss’s resume... is clearly a bit stronger than the rest. Where I really kind of had to wonder... is if Oregon will be ahead of BYU.”

  Conspiracy or Incompetence?

  • Chip Patterson (27:35): “It is not conspiracy. It is incompetence. The process is too mundane... I do not think this thing is rigged…”

Dark Horse/Outside Top 12 Teams to Watch

[30:54–39:17]
Each host picks a team outside the current Top 12 that could still surge into the playoff conversation:

• Washington Huskies:
  “Not 100% convinced they'll be in the top 25 tonight... But if you look at the rest of their schedule... they could be 9-2 going into that final weekend.”
  —Tom Fornelli (31:47)

• Duke Blue Devils:
  “Co-favorites to win the ACC after beating Clemson. ACC champion will be making the college ball playoff... Duke will be favored in all the remaining games.”
  —Bud Elliott (33:08)

• Michigan Wolverines:
  “Sitting exactly where they need to be... with a couple winnable games... maybe make a final push…”
  —Danny Kanell (34:29)

• USC Trojans:
  “Back home for the rest of the regular season, already a head-to-head win against Michigan... Table is set for a strong finish for USC.”
  —Chip Patterson (35:45)

  Light-hearted Moment:

  • Tom (38:09): “You picked USC because you’re madly in love with USC... you just, you will not listen to USC every time they tell you, nope, we’re not going to do it…”

Teams With "No Shot": Bubble Burst Alert

[40:03–44:59]
The hosts highlight teams that will be ranked but are almost certainly not making the playoff.

• Texas Longhorns:

  • Danny Kanell (40:33): “Guess what? It’s time to sell the Texas Longhorns... The Texas Longhorns are cooked.”

• Virginia Cavaliers:

  • Bud Elliott (41:29): “Playing single score games against Cal, UNC, Washington State... Klotz gonna strike midnight on Cinderella... I don’t see this UVA team as a college football playoff caliber team.”

• Iowa Hawkeyes:

  • Tom Fornelli (42:17): “I am not saying Iowa is going to lose [to Oregon]... but I don’t think Iowa can beat both Oregon and then USC... there is no way a 9–3 Iowa team is getting into the college football playoffs.”

• Missouri Tigers:

  • Chip Patterson (43:20): “Missouri are just simply a shell of themselves... I do think Missouri is going to show up inside the top 25... a couple more weeks... and that’s a spot that opens up for someone else.”

  Group of Five Discussion:

  • Over/under 1.5 Group of Five teams in the Top 25?
    [44:59] All confidently take the under: “Might be zero.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Conspiracy and Process

• Bud Elliott ([03:27]): “...in the final week, they take and rig it and put whoever they want in and then... reverse engineer whatever the rest of the rankings are to justify their picks.”
• Chip Patterson ([27:35]): “It is not conspiracy. It is incompetence.”

Resume Debates

• Tom Fornelli ([05:30]): “Indiana’s second best win is a 53 point win at home over Illinois, the same Illinois team Ohio State beat on the road.”
• Danny Kanell ([22:13]): “They value the SEC the most and then it’s the Big Ten.”

Playoff Landmines

• Tom Fornelli ([14:27]): “Georgia... they come back in the second half to win... but that Texas game, it looms.”
• Danny Kanell ([16:27]): “It's at Auburn. It's a rivalry game and that defense is still one of the best in the country.”

Lower-Ranked Teams to Watch

• Bud Elliott ([33:08]): “Duke will be favored in all the remaining games... once they’re there, they're probably not playing a team that’s a lot more talented than them.”

Important Timestamps

• 00:50–04:32: Top 12 CFP predictions & rationale
• 05:30–07:25: Debate: Ohio State vs. Indiana for #1
• 14:27–20:27: Landmines for top teams in Week 11 and beyond
• 22:13–27:35: Sorting challenging resumes (Ole Miss, Oregon, BYU, Texas Tech)
• 31:47–39:17: Dark horse teams outside the Top 12
• 40:03–44:59: Teams likely to be eliminated from CFP contention

Final Thoughts & Takeaways

• There’s broad consensus at the top, but the resumes and human bias of the committee create volatility and controversy beyond the top five.
• Despite all the talk about resume analytics, human factors—brand perception, conference reputation, and sometimes even the need for “theatrics”—play a huge role in how the first rankings are set.
• Several teams outside the top 12, especially in the Big Ten and ACC, have plausible if unlikely playoff paths.
• The committee process is messy and subject to both inertia and last-minute “reverse engineering.”
• Some teams in the Top 25 are essentially walking dead in the playoff race; others (like Duke, Washington, and even USC) have a legitimate chance to surge.

For full instant reaction:
Watch the hosts LIVE reacting to the CFP Rankings release: YouTube.com/Cover3 (Tuesday, 8:15pm ET).
And catch midweek Big Game Breakdowns and future analysis in your podcast feed.

(Summary by Cover 3 College Football “superfan” — accurate, collegiate, and just the right balance of skepticism and hope.)