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Chip Patterson
Welcome Back to the COVID 3 podcast with your hosts Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Cannell and Bud Elliott. It's your call for the best college football coverage from national signing day to the national championship and everything in between, presents the COVID 3 podcast.
Tom Fornelli
And welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fenelli, that's Bud Elliott, that's Danny Canal. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you live@YouTube.com cover3 and every get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe, Smash that like and come and join us in the chat aka the COVID 3 tailgate where they are just buzzing about our big game breakdowns. That's right, we are going to be going inside the matchup for the College Football Playoff semifinals. Game number one, which will feature Ole Miss and Miami out in the Fiesta Bowl. Game number two, which will be Indiana and Oregon, a rematch of the game we saw earlier this year. That will be on Friday in the Peach Bowl. The all of those inside the matchup details X factors and more coming up in just a little bit. But I thought that if we did not start where much of the sport is, then we would be denying sort of what is one of the buzziest items of the moment. Because on January 2nd the transfer portal opened and Buddy, we've already got some pieces that are falling into place. So Mikey, let's jump in to that portal.
Bud Elliott
Foreign.
Tom Fornelli
Let's begin with what I believe would be QB1 of this transfer portal class. That would be Brendan Sorsby, the former Cincinnati quarterback that we heard that there was going to be a push from an lsu. You know, we heard that there might be a push from a Miami. I do believe there was a push from a Miami. But ultimately Texas Tech lands their guy dk. I think that the conversation at the Orange bowl was if Brendan Sorsby could potentially be acquired right away, that might have been a little bit of an upgrade here. Are you, are you surprised at all? And is this the big fish you think for this transfer portal class?
Danny Cannell
I don't think any of them are sure things but if you look at the four teams left in the playoff, all of them have transfer quarterbacks. Kind of the new economy. It's what we look to do and look how teams to improve. They'd rather have a guy with experience who's coming off a really nice knife and a really nice season than somebody who you have no, nothing about whether it's a five star freshman like Bryce Underwood low as last year or it's a, you know, a backup like a Kenny Minchi who comes in maybe as a. Or a Julian Sam like we saw with Ohio State. But this seems to be the new economy. I've heard the numbers as high as 6. I think it's been reported 5. I think it's as high as 6, which is kind of crazy. Is it worth the money? If you're willing to pay it, they'll do it. But I do feel like Brendan swores be benefited from the performance of Baron Morton in that Orange bowl because it was ugly. I, I was not impressed with Morton throughout the season. I think that might have been the missing piece for that team was the quarterback play. He was good, he wasn't great and I think that sort of feeling of we were that close, we can get right back there. We just need a quarterback who's a difference maker. I think that was why he benefited. Now is he that guy? I'm not completely sold on him, but he'll have better weapons around them. There's some speculation they might get Cam Coleman in the portal. They're not good. They're not just going to stop at. Oh, once the dust settled.
Bud Elliott
Bye, Danny.
Chip Patterson
Oh no.
Bud Elliott
You broke up a little there. It's. This is. I mean it's not surprising. Like what was the one tweet as soon as he entered the portal? Like somebody was tweeting about how his girlfriend had transferred to Texas Tech to play volleyball. So it was like that's where he's gonna end up going. Obviously there was the. I think it was lsu, right. Was the other program that he was down to. Like the two Ones that were after him the hardest.
Tom Fornelli
I, I think Miami made a run, Adam.
Chip Patterson
Yeah, I thought Miami at one point was in on Levitt and Sorsby. I, I believe. Yeah. So, like, the number inflating, I think is certainly surprising, like, even to some of our viewers. But if you think about it, like, who's the highest paid coach in the NFL? Andy Reid. 112 guys make more money. He does. Players wise. Right. Next highest paid is Sean Payton. You got about 140 who make more than him. That's per Sportico. Like, is Joey McGuire above a replacement level coach at the, like, let's say upper half of the P5? Probably not. Right. Like, their success came when they started, like just firing the money cannon like crazy. I'm not saying he's a poor coach, but if they lost Joy McGuire tomorrow, do I think anything different about Texas Tech? No, I don't. So, I mean, if you, if you comp it to like, other sports that are now paying their players like the top free agent quarterback, making like half or a little bit less than what the head coach makes is not out of whack at all. Like, the real thing out of whack is how much they pay these coaches relative to what they pay the guys actually win the games on the field.
Tom Fornelli
I do think that there is a Texas Tech aspect of this where they do a barrier for entry to eliminate competition, you know, because. Because they can't. Like, there is seemingly, especially compared to most of the other programs, there is seemingly no cap there. Right. I mean, it's just they are not doing any number crunching. They are not worried about Robin Peter to pay Paul, like, if they want to win a bidding war. I think Texas Tech is one of the very few programs in the country where they're kind of. It's an infinity sign for how high they want to take this.
Chip Patterson
You also have to pay a little bit of a premium to get guys to live in Lubbock. Right. To get guys to come to a program with no, like, no history of winning at a, at a high level. Certainly they've had some good seasons not, not dogging for that. And really not much history of putting guys into the league relative to the programs against which they're bidding. So, like, it costs more to get a guy to go to Texas Tech than it does to get him to go to Georgia or Texas.
Bud Elliott
I don't know why you guys are talking about money. He said it was because of the facilities.
Tom Fornelli
Facilities, facilities. That's right.
Chip Patterson
Like the bank.
Bud Elliott
Yeah. Just like Brotherhood he felt with the guys in that room while he was there on the visit. Like you couldn't, you can't put a dollar amount on any of that guys. I think we're paying way too much money to the dollars here.
Tom Fornelli
I will say, you know, Joey Maguire, for his part, the way that he tells it is he does all the recruiting, then he steps aside and then the player and the family and the representative go into another office with sort of the general manager and the personnel people. So Joey at least tells, he explains it as though he is hands off of the money stuff and he's still doing it the old school way. So don't worry. Tom. Texas Tech's head coach still believes in personal relationships and getting that done. What about the player?
Chip Patterson
If you talk to Maguire, like I actually buy that. Yeah, I think he's a very personable guy and was a good recruiter before the money thing became a thing, but obviously not good enough to actually beat like schools like Texas for players.
Danny Cannell
Right.
Bud Elliott
It's, it's a wild path for Brendan Sorsby. Ohio, what was it three years ago? Like, he was the prime. Like he didn't start the season as Indiana starter. He took the job from Taven Jackson, played pretty well as a freshman. Kurt Signetti comes in. They, they move, they get Curtis Roarkin from Ohio. You know, they, they let Brendan says Sores believe. I don't know what's happened Indiana since then, I can't remember. But like, so Source B ends up at Cincinnati and now he is going to be like the highest paid quarterback likely in the Portal. It's just, it's a crazy path and it kind of goes back to what Danny was saying at the very start because I like Source B. When, when he left Indiana, I was questioning if they were making the right decision letting him leave because I was really impressed by what I saw from him. But it is kind of wild to me that now just being a guy who's played for three years and being available is going to make you a whole hell of a lot of money because that's what it feels like. Like none of these quarterbacks that are in the Portal strike me as there's no Mendoza in this class. There's nobody who I think is going to be like a top five NFL draft pick available in the portal this year, but they're getting paid like it.
Chip Patterson
Well, but do they have the upside?
Danny Cannell
Because like if his last year it was material.
Chip Patterson
And Oklahoma got to the.
Danny Cannell
Playoffs, you know, like last year was.
Chip Patterson
Not really because of material Wasn't that bad.
Tom Fornelli
They Matier gave them a better chance to make the playoff than Michael Hawkins.
Bud Elliott
Yes.
Chip Patterson
All day.
Tom Fornelli
Yes. So that, that at least was money well spent. That, that was an acquisition that I would say worked.
Chip Patterson
You're paying for the floor, which I think for a guy like Soursby, I had read on, I guess social media that he got like, like a third round grade or something like that. I'm not passing on as fact but like that kind of logically follows that if that's what your grade was from the NFL, your projected comp is about 5 million if you're a third round quarterback. So you kind of have to give him something close to that to like get him to not go to the NFL.
Bud Elliott
Okay.
Chip Patterson
But you have the upside of maybe like, maybe you get better, right. Maybe you get elevate to like a top half of the second round late first type guy and then you're making like really serious money.
Tom Fornelli
I do think they've got a good offensive staff. I mean like the upgrade, the upgrade they're getting at quarterback is going to allow them to hopefully be more effective to, you know, create different problems for the defense. So that when they are using that tempo, when they are trying to hit those explosive plays, you're just going to, you can get a little bit of better play at that quarterback position. So huge for Texas Tech. I mean we still got a lot of pieces left and I don't think Texas Tech is done putting together their portal class, but obviously they've got the big star right there. Speaking of Indiana, Josh Hoover, we in. Yeah.
Bud Elliott
I think they're also getting good players around him. I, I don't think, I don't think Hoover's Mendoza. I, I do think it's a small downgrade, but I don't think it's a tremendous downgrade. I think the biggest difference is Mendoza in his career has showed a much better ability to take care of the football. Whereas I think Josh Hoover's got a lot more yolo to him. So it'll be interesting to see if Indiana can coach that out of him because there was two years ago he was. As a freshman he turned it over a ton, fumbled a lot. Sophomore year he got things in line and then this year I felt he regressed quite a bit towards those tendencies. Can they get him back to the guy we saw in 2024? If they do, I mean, he's going to be fine. He's gonna have a really good team around him.
Danny Cannell
I think this too, when Bud said earlier you have to Pay a premium to go to Lubbock. I don't know if that's true anymore because the money, I think players go where the money is and they go where the chance to win is. Like you would have when the first year of Indiana under Kirk Signetti. I bet they might have had to pay a premium for whatever players they did get. But now when you become a destination spot because you've got a chance to win the Big Ten and win a national championship, I don't know if you do that. And even at Texas Tech like the fact that they're a brand, I don't know if it matters as much anymore. I do think in years past it would have, but I think as long as you're paying the top dollar and you have a chance to win, and I don't even know what if that even matters as much as the money does now. I think players just want to secure the bag. But I don't think you have to pay a premium as much to get players lured away from a Texas or a Georgia or a Miami because they might be better destination spots.
Chip Patterson
I think that might be case by case. I think some of these schools are brand because of the money and if they don't pay the premium, they cease to be the brand.
Tom Fornelli
Hey, is that you want to talk about just reckless? I saw it on social media.
Danny Cannell
Josh Hoover was overpaid. I don't know if he was overpaid. I think for him that's probably, he probably got market value.
Chip Patterson
I mean they have done a really good job with quarterbacks. And so like Indiana might get guys either on market or at a discount at that position given like where Mendoza is probably going to get drafted.
Bud Elliott
To be fair though, we, we talk about Texas Tech because of like Cody Campbell and all that stuff. It's not like Indiana isn't dropping hefty bags. Like how much money did they spend yesterday with all the commitments they got? I mean Uber. Yeah, yeah, like they are dropping plenty of money just as much as Texas Tech is.
Tom Fornelli
Like when they were even, even the first playoff team year one Sig spent a lot of money on that team. You know, it was just a, a total overhaul in a way that I think got everyone's attention. And of course everything that Indiana has done since then, very much getting the attention. But you know, we've got see Rocco back to Penn State. We just mentioned Josh Hoover to Indiana. Mestemaker does end up linking up with Eric Morris at Oklahoma State. Then you got some other non quarterback pieces. You know, Kenny Minchee to Nebraska, Louisville keeping Isaac Brown. It's looking like. Well, that was a, you know, that's pretty encouraging along the way. DJ Lagways visiting Florida State.
Bud Elliott
Yeah.
Tom Fornelli
What?
Chip Patterson
Yeah. So Brennan Sonone at Knowles 247 reported that yesterday Calandria visited and they were way, way far apart on terms. So he so said he was just outside playing on his phone while the agents negotiated and, and then they, they, they left. So I don't know if, if they're gonna, you know, pay up to get a, a guy like Calandria who, you know, has some upside also is like literally the Whoopsie Daisy King. The last time he played powerhouse competition, it was not good. Like, Lagway is a really odd fit for a Gus Malzan offense, but also you are keeping Deuce Robinson, who's one of the very best receivers in the sport, and you had to pay him something to keep him out of the draft. And I think they're in a weird spot here where like, if you're gonna moneyball this thing, you would just go pure runner to run the Gus offense, but you kind of need to keep Deuce around. So you can't like go take a guy who just simply can't throw. You know what I mean? So it's like, how do you also, like, if you're Norvell, if there's a certain number you need to hit to keep your job, you need to basically be betting on lottery tickets here at.
Tom Fornelli
Quarterback, which DJ Lagway is like, not, not a high school guy.
Chip Patterson
Yeah, yeah, right. Like, that could be a complete disaster in Gus Malzahn's offense if you're Lagway, like, is that the offense you're going to sign up to play in to kind of get your career back on track to go to the NFL? I wouldn't. But, you know, whatever. I don't know if Danny would. I would assume no. Yeah. But if it all hits, certainly I could see like that paying off in a great way for them. It's just that the word if is doing a lot in that sentence.
Tom Fornelli
Danny, what do you make a Lagway?
Danny Cannell
I don't, I, I, you guys know my feelings. I wouldn't want him. I wouldn't. Maybe at the value play, like if you do get him cheap. But to Bud's point, I don't think he's a great fit. And what Florida State wants to do offensively, I think Calandry is Calandra running. Dan Mullen system was pretty mobile. He ran some. So I do. And I think he's gotten better but it is a big jump task when to go back to the power four level. But maybe he's learned, maybe he's been a little bit better. I do think too what's interesting about Florida State is when we were talking about coaches and GMs like they might not want to come there because it would only be a one year proposition. What's the future of Mike Norvell? You know, hold I think for players, they don't think about this at all because most of them are going to only be there for a year anyway. Like they're all thinking, hey, these are all one year contracts. Doesn't work out fine, I'll go on to the next. I would want to throw to Deuce Robinson though. I know that.
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
Tom Fornelli
What Tom, which of the other quarterback pieces stands out to you as one that got your attention? I mean they're like Rocco Beck follows Matt, Matt Campbell. That doesn't shock you, but it does bring about questions of like, okay, let's put it, let's put another analysis on Rocco Beckt because he is now going to be going up against, you know, a different schedule, playing for a different team. It'll be a new look for a player who has been a part of college football as a starter since he was a freshman. Right. So we've got a big sample size here. I don't know if that one stands out to you or any of the other quarterback moves. Which ones? Which one's got your attention?
Bud Elliott
I mean, I do think that, yeah, Rocco Beck, like you said, not exactly a shocking move, kind of expected. I think that's a good move for Penn State who will be the Nittany Cyclones next year. Based on the way the portal is going, I would say the one move I really genuinely liked that was Kenny Minchee to Nebraska.
Tom Fornelli
Fun fit.
Bud Elliott
I think it's a good fit. I think it's fun fit. I think it might be an upgrade on what you had the last couple of years as far as what you're trying to do. I, I think that'll be interesting to see because also like if your offensive line is not great again, I'd rather have Minchi back there than Raiola because I do feel like he'd do a better job of being able to avoid that kind of pressure and getting away with it. Other than that, I mean, I could go with the homer pick. I could tell you I was, I was happy about Kaden Hauser ending up at Illinois. I am still very interested. The other one that really kind of Stood to me is Lincoln Keenholes to Louisville because that's a guy like we've seen Jeff Braum lately. Kind of go with like last year, Miller Moss was a guy you were getting for a year. This is a guy that you're going to have for a few seasons that you can continue to develop. I'm very interested in seeing because all the reports we heard coming out of him from Ohio State camp in the spring, like he was giving Julian saying a run for his money. Like it was not just a cut and dry sayings killing him and we're just kind of stalling. They were like, no, he's, he's playing very well. He's improved a lot. Give him to Braum for a couple years. I'm wondering what he's able to do with him. I think that could be a big one. And then as you mentioned, them being able to keep Isaac Brown at the same time, this is a Louisville offense that I think could be pretty fun to watch next year.
Tom Fornelli
Speaking of Kaden Houser, Yannick Smith, the ECU wide receiver lands at smu. I think that's a, that's one of those good pickups along the way where you know, you, you take a look at the, some of the skill positions and then you know, certain offense you're like, okay, that, that one makes sense and that's a good one for Rhett Lashley and his crew moving forward. But who do you have your eyes on? Either a team or a player. What's. What's sort of the big buzzing question for the Portal as we're sitting here on Monday morning.
Chip Patterson
I want to see if some more offensive linemen hit this thing. I mean, you look at the, at the 247 top, top like Portal rating so far. Scanning, scanning, scanning. Got one in the top 20. And then Lance Herd from Tennessee is in the Portal, which to me is weird. Like that's a top paying program that's doing really well and I assume he's in the portal. My assumption, and I don't know, is that they decided not to pay him. So I'd be like, why did they decide not to pay him?
Bud Elliott
Right?
Chip Patterson
Maybe there's somebody else who they like behind him who they are ready to promote to the spot. Mooch. You know, hell, the Pittsburgh Steelers did that with linebackers for like two decades, you know, But I would say like the overall lack of offensive line help in, in so far in the Portal, at least looking at the ratings and talk some folks, that's, that's not good. If you need to land like multiple offensive line starters. That, that's problem.
Tom Fornelli
Is, I mean it let me chicken and egg this. This is because if you're a damn good offensive lineman and you're get. You're getting paid to keep them in house.
Danny Cannell
Right?
Chip Patterson
Yeah. I think like, like the second you show a pulse when you're signed out of high school, these teams are trying to re up you immediately and should.
Tom Fornelli
I mean, yeah, that's the thing is like any smart player personnel, this is what two portal cycles now where offensive linemen have been really tough to come by. Now it's just now it's just the understanding for the market. Like that's not a place where you're going to be able to go get instant impact. I mean congratulations, Isaiah World has worked out for Oregon.
Chip Patterson
Yeah. Yeah. I would say not, not in. But that's not in droves. You know what I mean? Like there are select guys who will be good for sure. But if you need like the, like the volume's not there.
Bud Elliott
Right.
Tom Fornelli
Very interesting to, to keep your eyes on that for sure.
Bud Elliott
All right.
Tom Fornelli
We will of course be giving you updates on the portal as it continues to move around, as the pieces continue to cycle. But no, now it's time to get back to the playoff. So coming up on the other side, we go inside the matchup of the two college football playoff semifinals. It's Big Game Breakdown and more nukes.
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Tom Fornelli
Back here on the COVID 3 podcast. Only three games left the college football season. So what are we going to do? What we do with all the big games, we break them down.
Bud Elliott
It's Big Game Breakdown.
Tom Fornelli
Before we jump into Big game Breakdown, a quick shout out to Amazon Prime. Last minute gifts. No problem. Prime's fast free shipping keeps you covered with wins delivered. It's on Prime. All right, let's go in chronological order. Which means we get started with the Fiesta Bowl Thursday night and a reminder that we will be live at the conclusion of Ole Miss and Miami. Here YouTube.com cover3. Then another instant reaction on Friday where we will also be able to do a way too early preview for the national championship game. All right, Tom. Ole Miss Miami. Where. Where would you like to start? With this one.
Bud Elliott
I will start where I think if Ole Miss wants to slow down the Miami offense and be able to get pressure on Beck and get home on Carson back, they have to win on first down because first downs is where Miami has been excellent all season long. On offense they don't have a ton of explosive plays. They're not number one at like averaging yards per play on first down. But what they do do is they don't lose yards. If you look at negative play rate, Miami's is the second best in the country on first down. The only team that's better is army. And I can tell you Right now, 75% of Army's first down plays are just a fullback dive into the A gap. So you're not going to lose yards on those very often. So Miami's actually dropping back and running actual offense and they don't mess up. That gets themselves into good second and third down. It helps them stay on schedule. If you want to get after Carson, Beck, I think in this matchup, if you're Ole Miss, you have to have them in third and long situations where it's going to take some time to develop. And if you're not, it's probably not going to be a great day for you defensively, which I mean, honestly not totally out of line with what we've seen from Ole Miss all year. They have not been an incredible defense. So that's one thing that I think you have to really keep an eye on here. And another thing maybe under the radar. Where is this game being played?
Tom Fornelli
The Fiesta Bowl.
Bud Elliott
Do we remember the turf? Oh yeah.
Chip Patterson
Oh yeah.
Bud Elliott
A very, very, very slippery surface in, in Arizona there you see players falling down a lot. And guess what? Neither one of these teams are great at tackling. Period. Even on solid footing, Ole misses. Missed tackle rate ranks 72nd nationally. Miami's is 128th. So you might see some guys slipping and falling, leading to some explosive plays and hurting tackling even further. So that is definitely something to keep an eye on in my eyes in this.
Chip Patterson
I think whoever plays their game tempo wise is likely to come out ahead. It's like who can dictate the terms and the tempo of the ball game? You know, if you're old Miss, I think you are looking to go fast to wear those defensive linemen out. They don't substitute a whole lot. I know Lightfoot played well for them in a sub role in the game against Ohio State. But ultimately, like I think you need to wear down those guys from Miami by making them play a Lot of snaps. Ohio State did not do that. They. They. Their snap count was in the 50s. If you're. If you're Ole Miss, you want that snap count in the 80s. Like those snaps kind of, you know, 60 to 80. Those are when your legs kind of kind of go right. Especially when you're playing with the intensity like a Bane and a Mezador play with. Which is a lot.
Bud Elliott
Right?
Chip Patterson
Those are big bodies and they are going all out, like, all the time. I am curious. So Ole Miss got home a lot against the Georgia kind of guard, center guard combo and created a lot of problems there. Yet I thought Georgia ran the football pretty effectively. If you're Georgia and you're. Or if you're Miami, you're looking at. You're saying, all right, we're a lot better there on the interior than Georgia is, mainly because we're not having to play a freshman instead of our all versus.
Tom Fornelli
Yeah, right.
Chip Patterson
Yeah, exactly. So let's go ahead, keep doing that. We did a pretty good job of that against Ohio state. And old Mrs. Front is not Ohio State. I think if you're old Miss, you're like, all right, well, how much we had to blitz? Can we handle these Miami receivers on the outside? Not name Tony one on one? You know, Daniel's made one nice catch for them against Ohio State. Other than that, he was kind of quiet. They had some screens and stuff to him. It wasn't like, if you're Ohio State, you're looking back at that game. I don't think you're like, oh, he killed us, right? So how much do you blitz? Or do you play a little more conservatively and hope that Miami settles for field goals? Because field goals against a team that kind of plays it right by the blackjack card in Ole Miss typically don't get it done.
Tom Fornelli
Dk.
Danny Cannell
I agree with everything you guys assessed so far. I also wonder how Miami does. Their defense is awesome. They've been able to get after the quarterbacks, but mobile quarterback is the great neutralizer of great defenses and great pass rushes. And we just saw Trinidad Chambliss able to go off with a ton of effect against Georgia's defense. Kevin Jennings against SMU on one leg made a bunch of plays against this Miami defense. So to me is how do they contain. Trinidad Chambliss is huge.
Tom Fornelli
Yeah, I was thinking about that when Tom was talking about the slippery turf. You know, slippery turf and a slippery quarterback. Trinidad Chambliss was just dancing around zero sacks for the Georgia Bulldogs, and it wasn't as though they didn't have red jerseys chasing after him. They just never brought his ass to the ground. He just always was Houdini out there making plays extended and then getting it done with his legs when he needed to. Pushing the ball down the field vertically. And that is the one that especially paired with tempo could be the neutralizer for that. Miami defensive front. They have 12 sacks in the college football playoffs so far. The Miami Hurricanes do. Their pressure rate has been awesome. That and they're doing it just mostly one through four. You know, it's very simple. They just let them loose. And I just think, man, that's going to be so interesting to watch and so impactful in the matchup. If Trinidad Chambliss can dance on them the same way that he did against Georgia, well then you're going to be wearing out that defensive line. Have them huffing and puffing and then paired with some tempo could be very, very dangerous. On the flip side, if, if Miami can get home and if they can tilt this game a little bit early, well then that's. That to me feels like a big time recipe for success.
Chip Patterson
A couple of other things to consider here. I do think that the secondary Miami is going to run out there is a lot better than the secondary that Georgia ended up having to play with for most of the game with the.
Tom Fornelli
Injections and the injuries.
Chip Patterson
Ejection and the injuries. Yeah, right. So they are probably going to be able to affect Chambliss with fewer guys. So that means they get to keep more guys in coverage and the guys they have in coverage are better than what Georgia had. So I, I think that changes how this goes in terms of like limiting your explosives. What I don't know is like how much will Miami blitz? They like to do all that nickel stuff. They may not. They may do that some just to force his hand. They may just decide like, hey, we're just going to sit back and make you operate against the seven man.
Bud Elliott
Drop everything to think about too. Along the same lines on the other side is does Ole Miss blitz really feel like they have to blitz to get pressure on Beck? And if you look at it because like they've been more reliant on it as the year has gone on than a lot of the other teams currently left in the field. In fact, I think all of them. But like Carson Beck has been really, really good against the Blitz. He's had 129 drop backs, completing 73% of his passes, 15 touchdowns and only two interceptions. His interception rate drops when he's blitzed. It's like when you get home with four and he starts to panic is when he makes the mistakes. If you blitz, he's actually pretty smart at seeing where it's coming from and knowing where he can get the ball out to, to, you know, get and get it done. So you have to get home if you blitz. And then another thing that we have to discuss, I mean, Miami's won two playoff games. Its offense has been ass in both of the games. Like, not just the Texas Tech game. If you look at their first two games, they are averaging 1.23 points per drive. They have a 35.4% success rate. They're averaging negative 0.05 EPA per snap and they have an explosive passing rate of 4.3%. Those numbers along an entire season are Wisconsin. So Miami has won two playoff games playing like Wisconsin on offense. You can't play like Wisconsin on offense and win this game because I think Ole Miss will be able to move the ball on you here. Like, I think they will be able to hit explosives. I think they will score points. You're going to have to score more than, you know, 20 points to win this game.
Tom Fornelli
What would you. Let's play the game. What would you sign up for right now? What's it going to take to win? Is Miami.
Bud Elliott
Jinx? Tom? Yeah, 27.
Tom Fornelli
Can, can Miami comfortably. Can Corey Heatherman can, can he tell Mario, like, yeah, we can hold these guys to 24.
Chip Patterson
I would say 24 with no short fields. Yeah, that, that's. I think that's probably pretty doable because.
Tom Fornelli
They have been asked. Sure. But they've also taken care of the football. Right. And they haven't had a lot of just like backbreaking, mind numbing bad stuff. They've mostly. They've been pretty conservative because they've been able to be conservative. They've had, you know, a pick six. They've had some good defensive stops, obviously 10 to three in the very first game. We've talked a lot about sort of all the context that needs to be applied there, but we haven't seen like the, we haven't seen anything that indicates like meltdown mode from Miami's offense either. They've gotten just enough like the one long Mark Fletcher run that you need, you know, the one play that you need on third down or when they do the. They did some good fourth down calls. Right. They got the ball near midfield. They've got the good call. It's like, all right, we're just going to get Tony to dance on them and just give him the throw to the outside where nothing bad can happen. It has been conservative for sure, but also benefited, I think by the leverage of those games.
Danny Cannell
They've also played Texas A and M, maybe one of the best defenses in the sec and Ohio State, one of the best defenses in the country. And there won't be as big of a challenge against Ole Miss. Not say they're going to light them up, but I do think you should expect some more offense from Miami against this defense.
Tom Fornelli
Who'S got the coaching edge.
Bud Elliott
I mean Ole Miss's coach has been flying back and forth to Baton Rouge all damn week.
Chip Patterson
I think it's Miami. I, I think Dawson is a really good OC in game like head coaching stuff. We don't really have a sample set on Golding defensively. Like I think Golding's really good and I, I think, I think Heatherman's really good as well.
Tom Fornelli
So Golding did a good job for the most part. Whenever Kirby was up to his hijinks in that game of being able to, you know.
Chip Patterson
Yeah.
Tom Fornelli
Have the group not falling for it. I mean obviously there was the, the one fake that was successful, but there was a lot of other stuff. The running the punt team on the run, them back off like they were. They had. I thought that Golding for being a first time head coach got some, some check marks for me in terms of sideline game day operation and not getting, you know, tricked by, by Kirby when he was trying to do that. Kind of like it was like a. He remember when Kirby tried to do it against Notre Dame too and Freeman had them all dialed in on it. So that was I think a good sign for Golding to be able to pass that test.
Danny Cannell
One last thing on Ole Miss tempo. Yeah, we saw this happen in the Orange Bowl. As I was pointing out, if you don't get first downs, all this and Miami would love, if they get a couple three and outs, they could hold the ball 12 minutes out of the quarter. And we saw that with Oregon, Texas Tech. So there's something to keep an eye on when you go tempo. Got to get some first downs.
Bud Elliott
And I, I know I said it kind of jokingly, but I do wonder like the situation with Ole Miss's coaching staff who are still having to go back to LSU for like transfer stuff and deal with all that and then fly back to Oxford, go to practice. How does that impact you?
Chip Patterson
It's, it's probably not nothing.
Tom Fornelli
Well, I mean we've got a couple that are Leaving now, right? Charlie Weiss Jr's gonna stick around.
Bud Elliott
Yeah.
Tom Fornelli
Right. Do we have the full roll call on who's leaving, who's going?
Danny Cannell
And they're like five that are leaving or they. Is it hard to keep track of?
Bud Elliott
It's hard to keep track of, but, I mean, it's. Here's the fact of the matter is Lane Kiffin was like, yeah, they can go. But Lane Kiffin had no idea that they would get this far. He hadn't. He did not think that they were going to get this far without him. And now he's like, well.
Tom Fornelli
Either way, the winner here playing for the national championship is an amazing story. You've either got Pete Golding leading the Ole Miss team that Lane left with after the soap opera of the season, or you've got Miami, Mario Cristobal returning the program to where it wants to be, competing for titles and the opportunity to play for it on your home turf in your stadium. I mean, from a storytelling perspective, there's no bad, there's, there's no bad result here, so I'm very interested to see how it plays out. Our locks for this game, by the way, will be coming up on Wednesday, our normal 11am Eastern Time. We will be having our, our College Football Playoff semifinal locks. Coming up on the other side, we turn our attention to the Peach Bowl, a rematch of one of the best games of the regular season. It was Indiana's statement win in Austin. So what do we see in Atlanta? We'll take you inside the matchup and more nukes. Back here on the COVID 3 podcast. Those watching along on YouTube.com cover3 just got to see a wonderful promotion for UFC 324, which you can watch on Paramount. Plus and I, I am going to be educated thanks to our great producer Mikey. He can help me here, but I don't know, man. A cat from Liverpool named Patty, I might be in. I think, I think that that might, that might be one of my guys I need to put together, figure out who I'm a fan of. Are we a free agent? Do we have a UFC fighter that we're behind right now? Do we have anyone that, that, that we, we've got our support for? I'm learn. I'm excited about this.
Bud Elliott
Is George St. Pierre still fighting?
Tom Fornelli
I don't know. We'll find out. We'll find out. All right. The number one seed in the College Football Playoff continues their winning ways. What a statement by Indiana. Absolute dominance against Alabama in the Rose bowl to advance to the semifinals. They will be Meeting Oregon, the team that they defeated 30 to 20 in Eugene earlier this season. Danny, what do you think is going to be different in this rematch between these two?
Danny Cannell
Well, if you're Oregon, you hope you're more physical than you were the first time because they got pushed around and dominated on both lines of. Lines of scrimmage, which was the biggest surprise of the game for me. I think you would hope. Dante Moore plays much better than he did the first time around. It's really his first big game. I know he played Penn State as well, but that was a, you know, his best defense that he's faced so far. And then I think you've got to make them. You have to try to make them one dimensional. They're so balanced, and they had a very balanced attack against Oregon last time. And I know it's kind of crazy to say this because Fernando Mendoza is so good, but you. You just can't. You have to take away their run game and try to have him beat you through the air with some of his weapons at wide receiver. So I would say for Oregon, they've got to be ready to meet the physical challenge, which, and I don't know if you guys saw the clip. I asked Bryce Betcher after I said, who do you guys rather want to play, Alabama or Indiana? They said, revenge. I mean, Dan Lanning is great at getting his team motivated. I don't think they need any more motivation than what they saw the last time. But I would say they've got to meet the physical challenge more so than they did the first time around the regular season.
Bud Elliott
What's super interesting about this to me, and we have seen teams talk about it like there was. I think it was Feldman who wrote the story last week about, like, what Indiana does defensively and how they have confused the crap out of everybody. Like, everybody's like, wow, what is this? Blah, blah, blah. What happens when they see a team twice? Because Dante Moore took six sacks in the very first matchup, he was pressured, like, on nearly half of his drop backs. What does Oregon take away from what happened in the first game? What did they see? What did they learn? How can they counter it? How can they fix it? Does Indiana counter anything and change stuff up to continue further, just, you know, completely confusing them? That's something we haven't seen because Indiana hasn't had a rematch this year. Like, they've only played everybody once. So it'll be interesting to see how they deal with that, whether Oregon can adjust or if Oregon just again gets completely overwhelmed. The Same way that they did up front against Indiana in the first one. But I also think the other thing, like we showed those stats of Mendoza and more from this first matchup, it's not like Fernando was balling out in this game. He was one of his worst games of the season. He did have the pick six. And if you look through Indiana's games, the number one, the thing they in the country, they lead the nation on third down and yards needed. Five and a half yards is their average third down. That's the best. The common thread in every single game in which Indiana has struggled has been third down against Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa and Penn State. They've needed an average of six and a half yards a full yard more on their third downs. Their conversion rate dropped from 56.1% in the other games to 40.7 in those. You have to put Indiana in third and long situations because Fernando, I talked about this last week, he's terrific under pressure when he's able to get the ball away. But Fernando, for all of the things that he is very good at, he does take sacks. His sack rate of 5.9% ranked 74th among qualified quarterbacks. The pressure to sack ratio of 5.48 is 82nd. The one thing that he does is saving grace. Is unlike a lot of guys that can go back to the the Orange bowl there with Baron Morton and Dante Moore running backwards every single time they were getting pressured, Fernando steps up in the pocket. So when he does get sacked, he, he only, he minimizes the damage done. But you can get to him. And we saw Oregon have some success getting to him in that first game. So can you get him down on the ground? Put them behind schedule because they are not nearly as effective once the third downs start getting longer as they have been most of the time when they're just steamrolling teams.
Chip Patterson
If Oregon wins this game, what do you think we're talking about Saturday night? Like, huh, okay. What Tom said is tough to win a rematch. Right. Like I think all the points Danny said. And also maybe all right, in hindsight, maybe Simpson was more hurt than we realized. Right. Like maybe like the win.
Tom Fornelli
I'm saying, oh, I think it's Dante. I, I, I, if, if Oregon wins this game, I think that it's Dante played.
Chip Patterson
Yeah right. Like okay. Or Oregon handled the Indiana blitz packages much better than Alabama did. Blitz protection had been an issue for Alabama all year long. Right. Oregon was more comfortable playing man coverage. Bama was actually think playing all that man, like some of those concepts Hurt. Hurt. Their run fits for Bama in that game. I think we're gonna like we would look to nitpick. Okay. Were there weaknesses? Were there warning signs in a ridiculously dominant win over the tie that we should have picked out before? Like we. We see Oregon beat Indiana, which again, I don't really think like Oregon's gonna beat them. I think it's, you know, certainly possible, right? Like the lines 4, not 40. So it's probably that, hey, Bama was a lot more like limping to the finish line with Simpson than we realized. Like some of the things they didn't do well, we called out some of the things that like, you know, we called out pre, you know, pre flop and some, you know, we called out in post game. Oregon like fixed some of their protection stuff against Indiana the second time around, they were more ready for how they were going to attack the way they called their protections. A little bit healthier receiver now and Dante made big time throws just as, as Mendoza did and they, you know, he just made a couple more and.
Tom Fornelli
It was a classic.
Chip Patterson
Yeah, yeah. I guess how it plays out.
Tom Fornelli
How about this? We talk about Indiana's linebackers a lot, right? And especially just the. They do great run fits. They're always in the right place at the right time. But Kenyon Siddiq and Jamari Johnson, who continues to sort of come on in the back half of this season in Indiana, do they have the. The players to be able to. To make stops when that's the number that's called, like when they just press the Sadiq button. Is Indiana going to be able to cover?
Chip Patterson
I think so. I, I do like a lot of it. You gotta, you gotta get Indian out of the, out of these two high looks that they are so good at kind of playing like, like, you know, minus one in the box and yet still fitting the run. If you're able to punish them for that and most teams have been unable to do so, then you get some more opportunities at the seams right to those tight ends. You get some opportunities for, for some better play action stuff. But if you don't get them out of those looks, you don't win. So they do a really good job of staying in those looks. Like not allowing explosive plays, making you actually like execute over and over and over again. That's going to be a really key part of this game. I think, like the biggest thing for me though is how does Oregon handle some of the Indiana blitz stuff this time around? Because Indiana got him the first time they did A really good job getting pressure free runners on more guys who run accounted for. Like, they scouted it well. They. They lined it up well, they bluffed well, they executed well. Does Oregon have answers for them this time around against their pressure stuff and.
Bud Elliott
Recency bias is a hell of a drug. So like, based on what I saw in the Orange Bowl, I'm not all that optimistic about Oregon because if you look at their performance in that game, offensively, every single stat I care about, that was their worst performance of the season was the Indiana game. You know, it was second worst. Texas Tech. So like they did not play well at all last week. They did not protect Dante Moore. Dante was flustered and making terrible decisions. They were not really able to run the ball. Like, if, if they're unable to run the ball and slow down that pass rush in this one, it's going to be difficult for them to move the ball. They're going to look a lot like Alabama looked like. If you make them one dimensional and you let Indiana just focus on pinning its ears back and coming after your ass, that doesn't work. It hasn't worked for anybody.
Danny Cannell
Yeah, I would say if Oregon wins this game, it would be. We'd be talking about their defense made Fernando Mendoza look human. Like that's I think their best chance to win. I think Dante Moore would have to have a great game too. But I think the Oregon's defense, which did play pretty well against the first time, did get a pick six. Like I think that to me would be the story of this game. And why actually give Oregon the chances? Because I do think their defense is slightly underrated, but their offense was atrocious. Now how much of that had to do with Texas Tech being one of the best defenses in the country? That of course played into it. But they can't play like that against Indiana. Expect to win. But I almost, I almost think it's like setting up perfectly for landing because defense had issues against James Madison and garbage time, they tightened that up. Offense looks bad here against Texas Tech, you tighten that up, they really haven't peaked yet. I don't think we've seen a game for Oregon where they played at their best. Maybe it happens. If it doesn't, they'll get beat, they'll go home, they'll say what we needed to address. But if they do, they peak at the right time. And this game could be the national championship game winner of this one.
Bud Elliott
You know, what a conversation I would like to pin for the off season because it'd be too Long to get into now what it used to be not that long ago when you got to this point of the season, the elite offenses overwhelmed the best defenses. Lately these great offenses that we see during the regular season, every time they run into a great defense, they're not doing nearly as well in the playoff. In the playoff, in the season period. Like if you look, if you break it down, it's like Ohio State in, in the regular season when they played great defenses, they couldn't score and they're still one of the best offenses in the country. Oregon played great defenses, they couldn't score. It's just, it's. I wonder what that is.
Tom Fornelli
We should probably.
Bud Elliott
Again, this is an off season topic for longer debate but it's just something that's interesting to me.
Chip Patterson
I fully agree with you on that. But if you go back further, like think about it, 2000, you have what Oklahoma shutting down Florida State's wide open offense.03. You have Saban's LSU defense shutting down a wide ass open Oklahoma offense that was scoring on everybody. There's a couple more examples of this. I think. What 06 Florida.
Bud Elliott
Yeah.
Chip Patterson
@ Ohio State offensive Troy Smith won the heism that they were scoring everybody. So it does kind of go a little bit. Yeah, I.
Bud Elliott
Agree. But I wonder what the adjustment has.
Chip Patterson
Been. I think it's a lot of like denying the explosives more the sim pressures to combat some of the, some of the stuff that you're getting from the RPOs and just like causing the hold the ball a little more, a little more.
Tom Fornelli
Hesitation. Think more like if, yeah, if these quarterbacks have all been tasked with just like read this outside linebacker and make a decision then if you can, if you're really, really good defense that can operate at a high level, then you can come up with a counter to.
Bud Elliott
Confuse. Well then the four of us should figure out how to counter that to score more points and we call.
Danny Cannell
Millions. I mean it is, I mean football, NFL college football, it's always been cyclical. There's always things have been trendy and RPO was super trendy. It was tempo was trendy. Defenses have adjusted. They realized how to get check out of certain things. When they go tempo, they realize how to defend RPOs a little bit better. But I think to Bud's point, like the explosives, that has been a point across NFL and college football playing a lot of shell coverage make them drive the length of the field and the more you do that, the more opportunity has for defense to make plays and the offense to screw.
Chip Patterson
Up. Some points from the chat as well. Age for sure. Not having to play as many young players because you can get old, stay old via the portal does allow you to call more stuff on defense.
Tom Fornelli
To be more complex because you're teaching older guys the ability to recognize stuff, make checks and things of that nature. That's a fun game. I'm excited about this one. Any, any final, final thought. I mean two, two of the best coaches in college football right now. Two of the best programs in college football right now. It is the the last two Big Ten champions going against each other guaranteeing the Big Ten will have a team playing for the national championship. What's the I like bud, your prompt of you know, if Oregon wins, what are we talking about? What. What else is is sort of a path that you think could end up being the dominant storyline in this.
Chip Patterson
Matchup. Oh, the daily.
Tom Fornelli
Thing. Like are.
Chip Patterson
They. We have somewhat written off the idea that the loss of Daly for Indiana is not a factor because like they ended up killing Alabama. My guess, if Oregon wins this, the loss of daily, the need to blitz to get pressure and not be able to get home with four will be a major talking point for us. As a guess again, if, if.
Tom Fornelli
Oregon wins Indian, two things stand out to me. Number one, Indiana is just an old ass team. Old team. A lot of sixth year, fifth year, fourth year play. I think it's something like 18 of the 22 on the starting depth chart. Fourth year, fifth year, sixth year players. Like, I mean I know that Indiana hasn't been here before, but it makes sense why they are so well coached and able to go out there and execute. Oregon on the other hand has wildly talented freshmen that are out there making plays, huge plays, winning defensive mvp, you know, of the Orange Bowl. But it's, it's definitely a little bit of an experience advantage. The other advantage for the Hoosiers, man, they were in Miami, then they're flying back to Eugene and then they're coming from Eugene all the way back to Atlanta. I know that Dan Lanning and Oregon, they, they are not going to allow for that to be an excuse or anything that's going to creep into the minds of the players. But I mean I don't know about y', all, but I am definitely taking into consideration the travel disadvantage that the Oregon Ducks have in terms of everything that's taking place In a what, 1012 day window.
Chip Patterson
Here? I, I would take it into account more and I'll disagree with you, but I think it would matter more to me if they were On a standard like seven day.
Tom Fornelli
Window, they get the extra day. They also are not. But they're also not coming back for a long run up the way they would for the title game because we don't have a media day for this one. We don't have as like that four day run up. They're just going to get back. It'll be just a couple days and then it'll be go time on Friday. So we'll see. I mean they. This, this is, this is what life is. You know, if you're playing game number 15 and it's going to require a lot of crazy back and forth, there's truthfully not. I mean whether it's Washington, whether it's Oregon, there's not a lot in the current college football playoff system that sets up well in terms of your travel. I mean, I guess if you got Rose Fiesta, you know, that would be the only way that it could have worked out well. But that's not what the Ducks have. So Indiana, on the other hand, they do have to deal with coming back from Pasadena, but Indianapolis to Atlanta obviously is not that difficult. Any other notes.
Chip Patterson
Here? I'm really excited to watch this one. I'm excited to watch both, if you. Let me ask you this last thing because I know we got to go. Is this semifinal an argument for.
Danny Cannell
Receding?
Bud Elliott
No.
Tom Fornelli
No. I like bracket.
Danny Cannell
Luck. Yeah, me.
Bud Elliott
Too.
Chip Patterson
I, I don't know. I, I think I, I'd like to kind of not have bracket.
Tom Fornelli
Luck. If you're going to build that big ass bracket, then let's have it as a bracket. Which means if you take out the dragon like Miami did. Well, now everything's in front of you. I think there should be a war, a reward for being able to take out one of the top.
Chip Patterson
Seeds. I think reseeding puts more emphasis on the regular season and finishing strong in regular.
Bud Elliott
Season. Maybe. But I also think it puts far more emphasis on the selection committee to know what the hell it's talking.
Chip Patterson
About. That's. That's fair too. For.
Tom Fornelli
Sure. Yeah, I'm.
Danny Cannell
Cool. I would argue it'd be an argument for flip flopping locations because it makes way more. It would be way easier on both these fan bases. Miami Ole Miss in Atlanta and Indiana. Oregon out in Fiesta. I know it's a little bit further for Indiana, but what if we.
Bud Elliott
Just played them all at home until you got to the title.
Danny Cannell
Game? Let's go. I'm all for.
Tom Fornelli
That. And that wraps up our big game breakdown brought to you by Amazon Prime. Remember Prime Isn't just fast, it is your holiday lifesaver if you forgot a gift for a friend or family member. I know that it's been a couple days, but you know what? Prime's got you covered. Need something for tonight's party? Prime gets it there quickly turning last minute panic into a smooth win this season. You can count on prime to deliver right when you need it most. Last minute gifts delivered. It's on Prime. All right. Any. Any coaching carousel or other sort of business, you know, business. Items of note. What do we think about Chad Morris back at Clemson? We bring. We getting the band back together. Is this it? Is this, Is this how we get back to.
Chip Patterson
Glory? I'm very curious to see what Clemson does like.
Tom Fornelli
Overall. Who's gonna be the quarterback for Chad Morris's new offense or old offense or whatever it.
Bud Elliott
Is. Does Chandler have another.
Tom Fornelli
Year? Can Taj Boyd.
Chip Patterson
Play? I assume it's not Zena, but maybe they like.
Danny Cannell
It. This, to me, unfortunately feels like it could be the end of Dabo Sweeney's era if he's unwilling, if he's really trying to run it back. And I hate to say that I think he's been incredible for the sport, but it just feels like he's trying to recapture some of the magic that he felt the last time he was under pressure. Because remember when he felt pressure when he was the interim and he was elevated, he went out and got Chad Morris to fix the offense, gave over the reins to him. The next year was Brent Venables and they were off to the races. I just. We haven't seen Chad Morris succeed offensively. We were talking about all the adjustments people have made. He was one of the innovators, but the adjustments have been made. I haven't seen him be super successful. So what's going to.
Chip Patterson
Change? I just think they're losing like so much off that team. The coaching stuff to me is secondary to what do they do about the.
Tom Fornelli
Roster. They. I think that they already got a hint of it because that while that is a very talented. They're losing a lot of talent. That was underperforming talent. You know, like you're, you are dropping the talent base. But if they can get less talented, they might be able to get less talented players to perform at the same level from like guys who are on NFL mock drafts that underperformed through the.
Chip Patterson
Season. That's fair. Yeah, like some of the guys who couldn't beat out that underperforming talent may perform differently under new staff, new motivation.
Tom Fornelli
Etc. I mean like People, there was a time where Clemson was a perfectly fine like 8 and 4 type team, right? I mean they were like regular, they were pretty talented, but not, not the juggernaut or the monster that they were throughout much of that four team College Football playoff.
Chip Patterson
Era.
Danny Cannell
Right? Yeah, go.
Chip Patterson
Ahead. I'm readjusting because now we're on a three.
Bud Elliott
Box. Maybe, maybe they're saving money on assistance to fire it in the.
Tom Fornelli
Portal. I think, I mean, listen, they are not portal averse. It's a numbers game and now they'll be tested because they got a lot of numbers to fill. So. So we'll see from what ends up happening there. Let's see, any, any other sort of like coaching moves or any other business got your attention? I'll tell you what's got my attention. It's the College Football Playoff semifinal locks and they're coming your way on Wednesday, 11am Eastern Time. Then obviously game start Thursday night. So where are we going to be? Ready for you with an instant reaction show on Thursday night. That'll be after the Fiesta bowl between Miami and Ole Miss. Then an instant reaction show on Friday night after we get that Oregon Indiana Peach bowl which will include our way to early preview of the national championship game. Fired up to do it. Come and join us live YouTube.com cover3 and you can follow him on Twitter at Tom Frnell, you can follow him@buddha elliot3. You can follow me at Chip Patterson. Gentlemen, thank you very.
Bud Elliott
Much. Thank.
Chip Patterson
You. See.
Tom Fornelli
Y'.
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Series. Star Trek, Starfleet.
Tom Fornelli
Academy. Being a cadet means being open.
Danny Cannell
To the people around.
Tom Fornelli
You. I've spent my whole life getting away from.
Chip Patterson
Stuff. Letting someone in that sits hard. I want to be captain. I need to be.
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Imagine. Starfleet Academy new series streaming January 15th on.
Episode Title: College Football Playoff Semifinals Big Game Breakdown, Latest Transfer Portal Buzz & More!
Date: January 5, 2026
Hosts: Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Kanell, Bud Elliott
This episode delivers a two-pronged deep dive:
The hosts, true to their blend of analysis and banter, dissect the philosophical and practical shifts in roster-building, portal economics, and scheme, while also seeding key debates for offseason and playoff narratives.
(From 01:07-21:47)
Key Points:
“I don't think any of them are sure things…The new economy: teams would rather have experience coming off a good year than an unknown, even a five-star freshman.”
“It costs more to get a guy to go to Texas Tech than to Georgia or Texas.”
“There's seemingly no cap there…If Texas Tech wants to win a bidding war, they are one of the very few programs where it's kind of infinity.”
“The real thing out of whack is how much they pay these coaches relative to what they pay the guys actually win the games on the field…”
“Players go where the money is and where there's a chance to win…I'm not sure you even need to pay a Lubbock premium anymore.”
Notable Quote:
“The second you show a pulse when you’re signed out of high school, these teams are trying to re-up you immediately — and should.” – Chip Patterson (21:03)
(From 22:42 onward)
(23:47–35:51)
1st Down Efficiency:
Slippery Turf in Arizona:
Tempo Battles:
"Who can dictate the terms and the tempo of the ball game? If you’re Ole Miss, you want that snap count in the 80s... when your legs kind of go."
QB Mobility as the Wildcard:
Noted for “Wisconsin-like” efficiency but low explosiveness and scoring (Bud Elliott, 30:12).
“Miami has won two playoff games playing like Wisconsin on offense. You can't play like Wisconsin on offense and win this game…”
Defense keeping games close, but a higher offensive ceiling will be required to beat Ole Miss.
“How does that impact you? It's probably not nothing.”
(37:35–54:07)
Oregon’s Physicality:
Handling Indiana’s Blitz:
Bud Elliott (39:19):
“What happens when they see a team twice? …Does Indiana counter anything and change stuff up to further confuse them?”
Critical Stat: Third Down Distance
Panel envisions narratives:
Danny Kanell (46:53):
“If Oregon wins, we’d be talking about their defense making Mendoza look human. …Their defense is slightly underrated, but their offense was atrocious last time out.”
“If you’re playing game number 15, it’s going to require a lot of crazy back and forth... but that’s just what life is.”
(54:07–56:53)
“We haven't seen Chad Morris succeed offensively lately…he was one of the innovators, but the adjustments have been made. I haven’t seen him be super successful. So what's going to change?” — Danny Kanell (55:13)
This jam-packed episode was equal parts transfer portal financial primer and CFP scouting report, brimming with fast-paced, candid analysis. The hosts framed the “new normal” of college football player movement, NIL economics, and the ripple effects on both on-field play and coaching fortunes. The playoff preview segments blend tactical depth (tempo, tackling, blitz pickup, third-down management) with wider storylines (institutional momentum, program narratives, experience vs. youth). Several offseason discussion seeds are planted as well—on scheme cycles, portal dynamics, and playoff structure.
If you missed the episode, this summary gives you the critical college football conversations and analysis from the Cover 3 crew, with details to set up both the semifinals and the impending chaos of the next roster-building cycle.