← Cover 3 College Football
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- [00:00]
Mark
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- [00:55]
Charles Barkley
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- [01:22]
Bud Elliott
Wayfair, every style, every home Indiana can,
- [01:27]
Brendan Knowles
can sort of cement itself as we are no longer this team that's going to be fighting for six wins anymore. Malachi, Tony, is he going to be ready?
- [01:34]
Bud Elliott
Dante Moore, he, he showed improvement, better command. What's going on, y'?
- [01:45]
Charles Barkley
All?
- [01:45]
Bud Elliott
Bud Elliott here of the COVID 3 College Wild podcast. And this is summer school. We are back in session with another big time episode here, Florida State. That's Brendan Knowles, 247, excellent writer covering all things FSU for us. And Brennan. What, what's going on, man?
- [01:59]
Brendan Knowles
I'm, I'm chilling. It's summertime. It's time to kick up our feet a little bit, relax, take some inventory. What's been, what hasn't been, what will be. So, yeah, I don't know when this drops. We're not quite a crazy busy recruiting season yet. It's a little bit of a lull, but you know, those don't last a whole lot. When was the last time you've just had like two or three weeks of like quiet time doing this job, but it doesn't exist anymore.
- [02:22]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, because I do all these summer schools. It's like, all right, I, I do kind of like buy myself a little bit of summer vacation, you know, I'm gonna do. I'm gonna do 70 episodes in the can, you know. And like.
- [02:34]
Brendan Knowles
And then, and then. Oh, that's. Yeah. Your hours is just distributed differently. I got.
- [02:40]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, exactly. Like Monday morning I open up like starting at 6:30am I'll do Tuesday nights till 10, you know, just. And like, let's just get all these done, you know. Oh, man.
- [02:50]
Brendan Knowles
A little bit.
- [02:50]
Bud Elliott
Disappointing year last year, 5 and 7, you know. Certainly better than, than what 2024 was, which was kind of unwatchable. Daryl Jackson off to the NFL. It's kind of a short list to recap that. Earl or Little Junior transfers to Ohio State. Sawcheck is out. McCoy's out, Moore's out. All of the offensive line exhaust your eligibility. And we have new coordinators as well. Or at least one we'll start on offense, I guess. So Norvell's calling the plays. Correct. How do you expect this to change as far as like, you know, regardless of personnel, like style wise, how is this going to look different than what Malzan wanted to run?
- [03:30]
Brendan Knowles
Yeah, I mean we, we do know what a Mike Norvell run offense looks like. We've seen it. We've seen the good and the bad. We've seen it being a top 15, 20ish, top 10, 20 offense before. We've seen it be a top 30 offense before then. We've seen it crumble to be the 125th nationally before, so. And then unfortunately, yeah, I learned this from you, bud, back years ago. The most recent data size is usually. The data set is usually the most important sample size. And so yeah, the last time we saw Mike Norvell calling plays was 20, 24. We know how that went. Offensively, it was offensive. And then they bring in Gus Malzan, who it is the same tree. Gus's system is a little bit more simplified, I think. Less in depth reads and route choices and stuff but, but still similar. Especially with like the, the terminology. That's what Mike based a lot of his stuff on when he was coming up as a, as a play caller. So how will it look different? Yeah, probably a lot less of the jet suite motion stuff, I think we'll see. We know that Gus Malzon loves his, his inside zone. And doing that with Herb Hand, that's an interesting dynamic is Mike's offenses have always been pretty eclectic with their bread and butter for a running scheme. It changes every couple years or so but Herb Hand still remains as the offensive line coach. So you know, stylistically, optically, I don't know how it's going to look exactly, but I do think it'll have its, you know, probably a 25 to 35 variation of what we saw last year in terms of style with, with Malzan's offense.
- [05:02]
Bud Elliott
Gotcha. So they bring in Ashton Daniels from Auburn by way of Stanford originally. What did they see in him that made him a good fit for what we think that they want to do?
- [05:15]
Brendan Knowles
I like how you danced around that.
- [05:18]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, like you know it. They're bargain shopping clearly.
- [05:21]
Brendan Knowles
But yeah, to their own admission too. They've talked about, you know, as John Garrett did talk about that and we have heard, you know, different figures for exactly what it is for, you know, the price for Ashton Daniels regardless. It's not, you weren't resetting a market. He was probably the cheapest of the, the three options that you brought in when you were looking at the transfers with Calandria and DJ Lagway. So yeah, that was a, a factor. It's not the first time we've heard Florida State falling on a budget and probably won't be the last time for, for a little while for the foreseeable future. Kind of shrug my shoulders for those listening that, that, that is what it is with with Ashton Daniels specifically. So I think the area where you can talk yourself into it because if you're familiar with his whole entire body of work, I'm not sure how much people who are on the west coast were from his time at, at Stanford. When I say it was up and down, it was just consistently up and down. He threw as many touchdowns as interceptions Are pretty darn close to it as like a two year starter. There some running success but, but generally like just not, not an efficient passer. And he wasn't someone who was taking a bunch of deep shots and making high level throws either. And so that was a weakness. Now he goes to Auburn. He's not the starter for most of the year. The plan was to redshirt him. He ends up playing in the final four games of the season after Hugh Freeze is fired. He takes over as the starter I think in the final three games and there was some good moments, I would say more ups and downs for the first time in his career. I know the raw stats don't show that, but you watch some of the games and, and once they kind of tailored the offense to him, the last two, like were kind of encouraging. So to take that all full circle. But to answer your question, I think when you ask what, what they saw, it's like those last couple games is what they're banking on. Like, okay, can we take someone who's been a below average performer for the entirety of his starting career but at the very end of it showed propensity to be above average with some glimpses of good. Can they get that out of him and surround him with a supporting cast to, to be a, you know, run oriented RPO quarterback who can occasionally hit some deep shots? I mean, I think that's, that's what the, the blueprint is. If it works, that that's how it's going to work, whether that does or doesn't. We've heard mixed things coming out of spring ball. Started like it sounded like it started well, ended well. The middle was kind of so kind of on par with I guess who he's been this career. But yeah, so I shrugged my shoulders again. I'm not entirely sure what to expect, but I have a decent idea of like what it's looked like at this point and odds are it'll, it'll probably continue to reflect what it's generally looked at since, since he started being a starting quarterback.
- [07:53]
Bud Elliott
I mean, if he's any decent at all, he's got a really nice skill core to throw to and head it off. I mean they go go and get Trey Wisner from, from Texas obviously. I mean like there's more guys in this backfield who I think at least, you know, coming out, had real recruiting pedigree and are still around as well.
- [08:11]
Brendan Knowles
I like what we've heard about the running game in general from spring practice. Caveat as I liked what we heard and saw from the running game frankly in 2024 preseason as well. And it was one of the worst in the country. Now there's all sorts of reasons why it ended up falling off a cliff as rapidly as it did and could probably spend an entire episode talking about that. Maybe one day we will. Right there. There's a tell all for the 2024 season. I think that's still, that still exists out there in the ether somewhere. But in grain of salt is like, does that mean the run offense is good, the run defense is bad? You know, I don't know. But we do know, okay, Trey Wisner comes in from Texas. That's a guy who had, you know, two years ago, a thousand yards of total offense. It's interesting you do the barometer of like the how a fan base responds to someone leaving. That's kind of a, it's not always an indicator, but, but it's a decent one of, of they're all wishing them good luck. That's not a great sign if they're all saying good riddance. That's not a great sign either necessarily. When they're all saying they're gonna miss him. I think that's kind of like your sweet spot. And that was kind of the response we saw generally from, from Texas. He's not an outstanding runner, but is efficient, clever, crafty and a good presence in that room. I, I think like the way I view him is like, if you can get Trayshawn Ward level production from him, which you should, if FSU fans remember that a few years ago, that level of efficiency, that's a win. But ultimately, I think if you're going to be good on the ground, you need Usman Chroma to be like the dude. Right? That's the former, you know, top five running back nationally. Watching against Alabama last year, like their, their moments were like, that dude not just belongs, but you see him being a potential impact player. I think he had issues as the year went on with just kind of the speed of the game processing things. Now we see. Does it slow down for year two? Does having Trey Wisner in the room help him? That's the one guy who I think, bud, we heard the most about this spring in terms of just consistently making big plays in scrimmages, in, you know, organized, you know, good on good drills and practice. That's what the feedback we got the most of was him. So I think if your ground game is good and then Ashley Daniels helps with that too. He is a big quarterback, decent running ability in his career. Not elite, but like, you know, that's. Again though, I feel like we've talked about that before. Like Djuangala years ago. Right, We've talked about that before of someone having. Being a bigger guy who can, who can run some. It has to happen. That didn't happen with DJU two years ago. We saw Tommy Castellanos this past year, not a bigger guy, wear down. That has to exist. It has to be a part of what you do, I think for this run game to be good. But I am with you. I do like the, the running back room generally.
- [10:46]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, I mean, I, I usually ask, okay, is there one guy who, if he Just really reaches his ceiling. It changes this on this side of the ball. Like it's chroma, right? I mean, you're. You're playing. You're playing the ACC. Like, like those teams average 2.2 draft picks per team, and like a pretty good majority had one or zero. You know, Miami and Clemson are doing a lot, a lot of lifting there. Obviously, like, if he's a, like a legit, you know, like playing at a level that would be a superstar in the Big Ten or, or sec, like that, that just. That's kind of easy mode for a lot of these games that you play against. His teams just aren't any good. You know, not that Forest aids good this year or anything like that, but like, he, he's.
- [11:26]
Charles Barkley
If.
- [11:26]
Bud Elliott
And if he can be that guy they hoped he would be a year ago, like, that's an unlock.
- [11:31]
Brendan Knowles
It is now. Does it exist? Like, I know from a physical talent perspective that exists, but does the ability. I mean, he's talked a lot about, you know, vision and kind of pacing, some of the tempo with the runs. I don't, I'm not. It's not an area of where I know enough about it. My expertise level stops here to like, know is that how much does that improve year over year of speed and processing ability? Like, how much better does that get? Or is that something that exists, Never exists. Right. At least to the level where it needs to be at for here, Power4Football. So that is a. That is a variance that I don't know how to account for. I would like to think that the game can slow down for people, though. And it's just like you go back like Dalvin Cook is a true freshman. It's like that, that vision, the way he processed the game, it seemed like he was moving at a different speed, the way he was interpreting everything around him. And that was from the word go. Right. Like, you just thought he was special with that. So. I don't know. I don't know, but he is. If I were doing a list of like, wild cards, I've got like two in mind, but he's the top on offense. The other one we could save for later would be on defense. But yeah, he. He changes the complexion to where I think you could be. I think the offense could be top 30ish this year. But you need Ashton Daniels to hit, you need one of your running backs to, to pop off, and then I think you just need stability on the offensive line. You should feel like, okay at wide receiver. I generally like that group With Deuce Robinson leading the charge. But like to your point, I kind of like the skill talent on this team. I don't want to be overly negative. I think if the quarterback is decent and you get a star performer somewhere at the skill performance skill position. Yeah I think that can you have enough there in in the ACC to be, to be a legitimately good offense for sure.
- [13:19]
Bud Elliott
Obviously you mentioned Deuce. He's a stud beyond him. Like is Danzy the clear two on this team? I, I thought he took some cool strides last year.
- [13:27]
Brendan Knowles
Yeah.
- [13:28]
Bud Elliott
McCoy transferred out to Louisville to go be their, their, their, their receiver. 3. How does the rest of this room
- [13:34]
Brendan Knowles
shake out so with Danzy, you know that's a guy who's a Makai Danzy for, for the national audience like is a, a legit like track star. He is a all American in the 400. He is excellent and we saw that real speed show up with in the Gus Bells on offense. I will say like a caveat like I think the Gus Mouse on offense is made really well for, for Makai Dansey. I think there's a jet sweep game and some of like the spacing things they do fit in well. We'll see if Mike can take that and formulate it somewhat similarly. But that was a guy who was in year two of his career. Made a big jump from his red shirt season to his redshirt freshman season. We'll see if he can continue it again. He didn't practice a ton in the spring because it was track season. But that's. That should be your number two. And I thought what was really cool was some of his, his ball skills and some of the physicality too that I didn't know was quite in his game. I thought that flashed at times last year. So now we get to see like if that gets enhanced in, in his second full season as a, as a contributor. But he should be considered the wide receiver too entering the season and then like for the wide receiver 3 I think you're kind of jockeying with a few different pieces. Jayvon Boggs comes to mind. He's someone who played and started as a true freshman. They talked him up a good deal last off season. He got injured earlier in the year and just like it was never like a. He was never able to stack it together to, to the level where it matched the hype. They had like 100 receiving yards. But, but Tim Harris who was one of the people who I thought was kind of like pumping the brakes on him, the actual position coach which in Hindsight, we probably should have listened to more, more clearly. He's like, yeah, he's made legitimately big strides. He went off on a. In a scrimmage. I think it was the first one. And then he got hurt in that scrimmage. He should be back for the regular season, but, you know, it's kind of so far early in his career. The data set says, you know, he get. He's gotten hurt a few times. So the other name that I would really keep an eye on is, is Devin, and that is an FSU legacy recruit, someone who FSU had to go and splurge on and, and push the envelope a little bit to get him to flip from Auburn back in the summertime. So it's a big investment. They need him to be good based on the way they're paying him. And I think the encouraging news based out of spring, he sounds like he was good and consistently good, too. And, and when I say that, like, he's making plays downfield and they're getting them in the ball in different ways and he's actually creating, which was cool, you know, a year ago, two years ago. There's been multiple springs now where they've lost a lot of wide receivers and tight ends in the spring. This year wasn't a whole lot different, Bud. I think the difference was you had a freshman or two step up and actually kind of keep things going to at least an extent to where you were just completely like, doa. On. On. Yeah, that. And so that I take as a data point that struck me as like, oh, you. You without Danzy Boggs is out for a good chunk of it. Deuce was in and out of the lineup. You could still somewhat pass the ball without great quarterback play. Like, okay, I'm. I'm listening. That'll be a guy to watch in
- [16:32]
Bud Elliott
the fall, offensive line wise. I mean, all five starters are gone. Do you have any idea what to make of this group? Like, Like. I mean, Chaplin had some moments at, at Auburn after coming over from Virginia Tech. I think it was the rest of these guys. I, I don't know. I. I don't really know what to expect from this group. Do you?
- [16:52]
Brendan Knowles
I don't know what to expect because it's all entirely new. Chaplain. You know, if you get the 20, 24 Virginia Tech version of them, and I think you feel pretty good. I'm trying. So right now they talk about, like, having eight or nine pieces that they feel good with. Yeah, we kind of hear that every year. And sometimes that plays out. Sometimes it doesn't. And so they bring in Xavier Chaplin. I think there's variance there based on how he performed in the SEC last season. You bring in Nate Pabst, who was a shoot, I want to say three years starter at Bowling Green and he got better year over year. I will say that this is still a big jump up and he's someone who started at both tackle spots, both guard spots. I think they've used him. But both guard and tackle, I, I think he will start no matter what the name. And I'm just, I want to try to pull up and make sure I'm pronouncing it correctly. Oh, good. There's not a pronunciation guide on, on the website. Shmita.
- [17:50]
Bud Elliott
We gotta get a nickname for this guy.
- [17:52]
Brendan Knowles
Yeah, Weiwu, I think the end of silence. Noeway Wu. But anyways, he comes from the FCS level. He's actually kind of like physically. I remember watching him on the official visit like, oh, that looks a little different in terms of how he's built. And I think that was the one. Initially we were anticipating him being a swing tackle his first year. He's a red shirt junior, but a little bit more on the raw side. His brother was a walk on at North Texas, I think, went to Oklahoma and ended up being a starter at center there and a good one. And so kind of similar, like kind of underrated in high school and he had some, some decent options coming out of the transfer portal. But as the spring progressed it's become clear I think they want him to be the starter at right tackle. We'll see if he's consistent enough for that. But his good is apparently very good. I think it's a matter of it being consistent right now. So those are about three names that are in the like in the mix that we've talked about. Andre Otto is one who's been around for a while. They've been very high on him in the past kind of transition from being a center to guard. I think he's been a steady. Like he's part of the option that left guard. And then it's whether it's like Braden Joyner, who's another like multi year, year and a half starter, was at Auburn for a little bit. Purdue last year, wasn't particularly good at Purdue at center. I think they're trying him at center this year, but he might be a right guard, he might be a center. And so yeah, it's a lot of ifs there. Typically I'm not a big fan of that because you know the optimistic outlook of if this, if this, if this all happens. It doesn't necessarily they trade. The one interesting thing that I'll note on the offensive line is they traded some of the floor, you know, with the last year's team being all a bunch of fifth year seniors for a mixture because I think they want there to be some sustainability moving forward. Like yeah, some of these guys are, are fifth year or six year guys and you, you plug and play and then they're gone. But someone like Braden Joyner, Wei Wu, I think like you're hoping those are multi year guys for you. And so. Yeah, well, I guess it's a way of, a long way of me saying we'll see with that group. I don't feel great about it. I don't feel, feel awful about it either. But that being said, the variance, it could be really good, it could be really bad. It'll probably end up being somewhere in between.
- [20:08]
Bud Elliott
All right, man, this is great. On offense, like somewhere between, you know, kind of average to pretty good. Well, I guess we'll see. All right, let's take our first break here. And on the flip side, we will hit the defense. Little schedule, little outlook and enjoying this.
- [20:23]
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- [23:12]
Bud Elliott
Alright guys, welcome back into the COVID 3 college football podcast. This is a summer school edition with Brendan Sinone Knowles247. We're breaking down the Florida State Semin goals for the 2026 season here. All right. Defensively, coaching continuity for the most part, so that's, that's solid there. They do lose a big piece on the defensive line. Daryl Jackson, who you know was pretty good for them last year, a huge guy.
- [23:34]
Brendan Knowles
What do you, are you familiar with the, the Knowles 24:7 inside joke of Daryl Jackson?
- [23:39]
Bud Elliott
It's like, is he good or not? There's like, is he good?
- [23:42]
Brendan Knowles
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, you just said he was pretty good, so I take that as a, as a pretty, he's a good player
- [23:47]
Bud Elliott
and like, I mean way better than anybody else they had on that defensive line last year. Like way better. I, I thought, you know, if you watch it like he's the guy that's drawing the doubles. You know, you had some young guys who were getting a lot of solo blocks and now they'll be called upon, it looks like based on what they brought in the transfer portal, which is not much to step up and, and be the, the new guys who are gonna have to, you know, Deal with having more attention. How do you think that's gonna go?
- [24:17]
Brendan Knowles
I have my doubts. I, I do think they have, I think they have a decent amount of depth with viable options, but whether there's like impact options there, that, that's what I have concerns about. So thinking about the defensive line, like, they're banking. So here's what they're banking. I think maybe that that might be the best way to kind of break it down is like, okay, who, who's being relied upon and what have they done previously in the career and what's the outlook? Look, Daniel Lyons is someone that they're saying is, you know, Tony White's talked about this on record, like, of him being an all ACC level performer on the defensive line. To this point, we haven't seen that. Now he was dealing with an injury for the beginning part, excuse me, of last season. We'll see. I mean, this is a red shirt senior. This is someone who, he's never been bad, he's never been good. We'll see whether he's able to make a big jump or, or not. Again, I kind of go back to what we talked about. The previous segment with Ashton Daniels is like, you have a big body of, of work, so yeah, there can still be some growth in a new system or, or new coach or something that kind of, you know, sparks it towards the end, but generally I think we have a decent idea. So that's one piece that they're, they're banking on as being kind of a malleable move across the defensive line type. The Dassier brothers, obviously a dramatic off season with, with the twins, but, but those are two guys who were good as. Had good moments and, and honestly, some really good moments for Mandrell. We had six and a half sacks as a true freshman. I honestly thought, I thought Daryl to see her like go back and watch the NC State game like he was. There's something there. Who's supposed to be the better of the two coming out of, of college or coming out of high school. Excuse me. And yeah, anyways, there's something there with the two of those guys. They need them to be good because they're paying them kind of like the Usman Chroma dynamic where you're paying those guys to be good players. You need them. And so those are, you know, your big three. I think Raylan Kennedy is my wild card on defense. He comes from Texas A M, an edge defender who was a. I was gonna say a pass rush specialist at A M on a pretty good defensive line but even that was like they use him as almost like a stand up quarterback spy a lot of the time. Like it wasn't even a pass rush specialist. So it was an interesting role for him. It's pointed to his, you know he's, he was a basketball player. He was a really high level like I think long jump in track. I think it was an allstate guy there. It was either high jump or long jump, I can't remember. But a really good athlete. Had him play football a lot and has had some like decent moments. His pressure rate was good last year. Again sub packages it was like almost 20 so there's something there. But he goes from being you know a, a situational piece on a really good defensive line to all of a sudden being a focal point on a defensive line that's devoid of other proven star power. He's not the biggest guy around. He's probably like in the 245 ish rain range. So they're relying on him to be fast and, and apparently like this is one thing we heard and as camp went on he got progressively better going back. Is that the offensive line that he's taking advantage of? Is that him being good? Like I don't know. That's one of the things we'll see but that is someone that they like other names. Kevin Wynn is someone they need to be good. When you talk about losing Daryl Jackson like that was your, your block eater a year ago and Daryl was like I mean sometimes it's commanding triple teams in some, you know, have you stopped and paused real quick. There was three guys blocking them but still impressive. Kevin Wynn, former four star guy, high end talent who FSU had to splurge for to, to get two years ago. Was injured a lot as a rookie. Didn't grayed out particularly well when he did play. Took a red shirt year. He slimmed down a little bit. He's played at a lower level football in Georgia but was like just really strong and, and a fun, fun like old school type of like nose tackle type. Yeah, you need him to be good though. Like that's just him And Jordan Sanders is a, was a high use reserve at Texas State. Like those are your two big pieces inside that you need them to all step up. So the only other name Deontay McRae I would say they like him as a, you know as a just a steady kind of. He's lined up as a one tag. He can line up pretty much anywhere inside the tackle box and be solidary strong. He's a little undersized, but yeah, man, there's a lot of pieces on the defensive line. I think there's a lot of, like, capable ones. I just, I don't know where the star power comes from. And it's tough to be a elite defense without like a, a real difference maker. So unless someone really takes a big jump, I, I do think your ceiling is, is relatively low and you're just kind of hoping that you have a, a higher floor to be average. I think if you can get average play from that group, maybe there's enough around you to be, you know, to end up being a capable defense with a. Within a good offense on the other side of the ball.
- [28:59]
Bud Elliott
So defensive back wise, they lose the second. Like they lost their two best defenders off this team. One of the draft, the other two, Ohio State, you know, or a little junior, I think. I mean, he certainly got paid like it, like. And I trust Ohio State staff a hell of a lot more than I trust four state staff. You know, like, I mean, they're expecting him to start and take that Kayla Downs role.
- [29:18]
Brendan Knowles
Yeah, Earl's a potential NFL guy. He's just thinking he was inconsistent, but it's like, we saw his good was freaking awesome, man. So, like, yeah, if he, if he hits and you know, he, he could be really good. I, I thought Jabro Rawls was their best player in the secondary last year, and they did bring him back, and that was a big win for them. I don't want to understate that. I was pretty salty when they were looking like they were going to lose him and they ended up retaining him. I think they paid, you know, handsomely for that, more than you would like to retain. You know, usually there's a home, home count, this hometown discount for, for that. But I would say in the secondary, like Jabril's prior, dude, you bring him back. Ashlyn Barker was actually really good at the start of last season at safety before he had a shoulder injury that just, you know, it was a, a big physical safety who was in pain whenever he hit someone. Like, it's a toughie. He seems like he's been, you know, he's better now and he takes over the Earl little rover spot. So those are some of the returners, uh, there. It's not a bad group that you're bringing back. It's a lot, A lot, bud. Based on your line on transfers, I think across the board. And then you got to hope you hit those evals correctly.
- [30:25]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, absolutely. So, like, turning to the Schedule here. You know, I, I said the line about the ACC schedule. You know, hey, like, you're, you know, it's 2.2 draft picks per team. The problem is which, like, this is good for entertainment for fans, but the problem is they played the top six on FanDuel's current odds to win the conference and seven of the top eight.
- [30:46]
Brendan Knowles
All right, I'm pulling up the schedule now.
- [30:48]
Bud Elliott
So they're not getting. Right. So the top six in order to win the league, Miami, smu, Louisville, Clemson, Pit. Virginia. Okay, they get all six. Vatech seven. They dodge them. Then they get NC State. So they get. They get the top six and seven, the top eight. Like, that's. And then they get bc, which legitimately could be terrible. Again, like, that's difficult. Like, you know, when I, When I saw the. Working in the transfer portals. Okay, you know what? Like, they don't have big goals anymore right now with this administration and the staff clearly, like, based on their spending and their understanding of the market or lack thereof. But, like, what they're coming together could be fine against the regular ACC schedule. They just don't get that. They, like, with their draw this year, it will be great for TV ratings, but, you know, because they're. They're still a helmet school. But this is. Plus Alabama, the non conference and Florida in Florida. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you're. You're what, 13th in. In the. The odds to win the league because, like, in large part because the schedule, like, if you flop them in pit schedule, like I'll be seeing pit. I think Pitt plays one of the top seven.
- [31:53]
Brendan Knowles
You know, I feel like there's always one ACC school. I'm sure it's like that for every conference, but there's always one. It usually feels like it's North Carolina or something.
- [31:59]
Bud Elliott
Yesterday it was off top of the head, you know, and I was like. Like, you know it. This is a very challenging schedule for like, let's say they're somewhere that, like 25 to 45 range. As far as team quality, which is not insane. Like, I don't think there'd be like, maybe they're like, they're like 25 to 50. Like, if you're in that range, this is pretty tough.
- [32:18]
Brendan Knowles
What's Vegas's win total here as of late April, early May, when we're recording five and a half.
- [32:23]
Bud Elliott
Are they six and a half?
- [32:25]
Brendan Knowles
That seems kind of generous. Yeah, I forgot I don't have him going bowling. Yeah, I mean, six. Like, I, I'm kind of out on
- [32:33]
Bud Elliott
the Making six and a half juice under.
- [32:35]
Brendan Knowles
Yeah, yeah, yeah. So that. That sounds right. Okay, cool. So, yeah, the schedule. I mean, the big question. I think I'm gonna flip this on you. So the big question that we keep getting is, like, at what point is this hot seat, like, in the schedule? Like, when would the flames reach so high to where it's unbearable? Like, what would the start? Because you have. All right, you should be New Mexico State starting the season when you have. You host SMU and then you have a buy, and then you're at Alabama. So the first three games of the season, some really interesting. And then you get Central Arkansas, which is Mike Norvell's alma mater. So by the first month of the season, like, does he survive that? I think he should. Right? Like, even if he's 2 and 2. Depends how it looks. But at what point in the schedule do you start kind of monitoring that bud as like a. A national. Like a national pundit to be like, okay, when do we have to start getting ready to talk about these flames reaching so high to where this is, you know, unavoidable at this point?
- [33:31]
Bud Elliott
I mean, we'll. We'll raise other questions of timber for sure. Because, like, it's. If you judge Florida State by any normal FSU standard, like, he would have been gone last year, but.
- [33:41]
Brendan Knowles
Or the year before, Right?
- [33:42]
Bud Elliott
Yeah. Like. Like, you go to a 10 FSU, that should be fireable. Obviously, like, there were some weird circumstances that year. Some of it they're doing. Some of it was, you know, some bad luck. Like, they wouldn't say it, but DJU was hurt, you know, as well. Like, that's.
- [33:55]
Brendan Knowles
Yeah.
- [33:56]
Bud Elliott
Now, you kept playing them, but, yeah,
- [33:58]
Brendan Knowles
you didn't have a great option, and you had an offensive line that you were banking heavily on, and, you know, life happened to all those. There's a. Again, we could spend an hour.
- [34:06]
Bud Elliott
That could be an hour, easy, man. I. You know, I look at this, though, like, is there really that bigger difference between, like. Like Pitt and Georgia Tech for Virginia and. And Cal? Like, I know that, like, they're in an ordinal ranking, that you get the top six and seven of the top eight, But I. I'm a little, like, clearly, Miami, smu, Louisville. Yeah. After that, like, do we know what Clemson's gonna be? I did their summer school. I didn't come away thinking they're amazing. You know,
- [34:36]
Brendan Knowles
some issues there.
- [34:37]
Bud Elliott
It feels kind of jumbled up to me there. After you get past the first three in this league, like BC and Stanford, I think are pretty clearly the bottom two. I'd be surprised if that is not the. The final order. And I'd be shocked if Miami, if Mensa stays healthy, doesn't make the championship game. And I. I would kind of be surprised if he lost any games in the league.
- [34:56]
Brendan Knowles
This. Oh, Miami. Yeah. I mean, they should be really good. Yeah. Yeah. I. I like Louisville. So Louisville's, like third in the league, right? Because I thought that would be a nice dark horse pick. I really like what they did in the transfer portal, but I guess it's not a dark horse. So what would then be needed? Because if you make.
- [35:13]
Bud Elliott
I think if you make a bowl game against this schedule, based on their prior actions, I think he's probably safe.
- [35:18]
Brendan Knowles
Well, so then what. What makes you feel. Because you've. You've dabbled in, obviously, for more than dabbled, you were the voice of Florida State podcast for a very long time until they. They basically broke you last year. And the national scope you offer is, like, at an elite level. So, like, if we could take a step back from. Okay, remove what the fans would feel good about here locally, what would nationally catch your attention? To be like, oh, all right, maybe, you know, maybe Mike can figure it out a little. Maybe. Maybe he's got it to where, like, what does that even look like? That's the thing I've had a hard time of, like, what would make you feel good about Mike Norvell being retained and then, you know, building something for the future at this point.
- [36:00]
Bud Elliott
I, I think if they, like, if they had, like, good traction with recruits, right? Like, that's something you can kind of control and then, like, obviously lose them because the money's not there because they have not done a good job planning on that. But, like, at least, like, if I was seeing, hey, like, the. The relationships are good. Like, like the. That some of the new staff he has assembled are actually, like, getting kids on campus and, and making real contacts. And we're hearing like, hey, like, the recruiting operation is better, which I'm not hearing so far personally at all. So, like, I'm not convinced that, like, that is better. It could actually be worse in some ways.
- [36:33]
Brendan Knowles
But I think they have the best recruiters they've had on staff, like, the top end of it. But I just, you know, it's not true.
- [36:40]
Bud Elliott
This front office revamp is like some. I. I'll. I'm just. I'm buyer beware on that here.
- [36:49]
Brendan Knowles
I'll let the guy not covering recruiting talk about that. How about. How about that? You go you go for it.
- [36:54]
Bud Elliott
Just you know, stuff. Stuffy here. I'm not sure. I'm not sold on that yet. I'll still wait for more evidence. I'm not sure it's worse, but I'm not sure it's better yet. Obviously like Daniels is a one year thing. So like maybe if the backup, if Sperry, who they. They kind of hiked a lot last year behind the scenes. Like maybe if he actually show improve and all of a sudden he leads them to you know, bowl game or. Or somehow they pull out seven wins or something like that. Possibly if you want a road gaming conference that could be interesting. You got a couple opportunities here like at Louisville, at Miami, at Boston College.
- [37:29]
Brendan Knowles
There it is. That's November. Yeah, seven November.
- [37:32]
Bud Elliott
But they'll make that red bandana game and BC will play like, like you
- [37:36]
Brendan Knowles
know, is that a Friday game?
- [37:38]
Bud Elliott
It's November 7th. No. And then you know, at Pit, like I. It's just hard to see a lot of like what could you get off this team that makes you really confident going forward? Probably some of the younger guys that they recruited playing well.
- [37:55]
Brendan Knowles
Yeah.
- [37:56]
Bud Elliott
And like you know, not multiple problems in recruiting. I guess like just you know, maybe a beginning to understand the actual like price of players and what it's going to take.
- [38:12]
Brendan Knowles
I don't know. Yeah, that was, that's been a, that's been a issue for them the last few years.
- [38:17]
Bud Elliott
Like you talk about not getting a hometown discount on Rawls. Like guys. Dudes who play at that level are gonna get a million bucks.
- [38:24]
Brendan Knowles
Yeah.
- [38:25]
Bud Elliott
Like that's not like you're not paying a premium on that. That's just the market rate and hopefully like with.
- [38:31]
Brendan Knowles
Yeah, that's the one thing. Well not the one thing but I think we can be critical of was the timing of it. I know they've explained, you know, why it took a while to get the. Relative to get the front office together and so maybe with time and continuity you have a better feel for that. Like that's if you're looking for silver lining. But yeah, I didn't do you any favors I think in putting together this roster and right now again we're recording this in late April, early May before the OV season really takes off. Like the, the prospects for elite prospects don't aren't like super like you'll get some important visitors in there but you. This is such a momentum based entity to cover now recruiting, especially the nil stuff. You can kind of figure out like what teams are trending based on, you know, Based on just like, okay, where they're visiting and who's willing to pay them. And you kind of get an idea of all that ahead of time now, whereas less surprises. And it just doesn't feel like that's. You would think it's the opposite, but it's just like the money talks and like the players talk to the, the programs that offer money. And so I think we have a litmus test coming up ahead of us to see what Florida State can do from a recruiting standpoint. But yeah, there's for years been elements of misreading the market and now you feel like you're further behind the market and that's where you start. I know you said before this, we're not getting a doom and gloom. That's where you do start getting nervous about the long term outlook of the roster beyond of like Mike Norville makes it through 2026 or not. I just don't know what the catalyst is for all that to change other than steady, slowly consistent winning. And I just don't know what position you're in to do that right now
- [40:13]
Bud Elliott
or a steady, slow, consistent, like consistent improvement. Like even if you have the, the Runway, you know, for that obviously. Look, I mean they just, they can't, you can't just hand wave away really bad business decisions, you know. And like Florida State's position on where NIL was going was in the extreme minority compared to the other people in the sport who run teams and programs that I talk to. On the bench was great. I mean, on the bench is a great Florida State podcast. No. 247 runs like, absolutely the best one to listen to. The cosmic IRS is here and the tax is coming due. Yeah. Like you can't just all of a sudden flip the switch like, all right, hey, now we get it right?
- [40:53]
Brendan Knowles
Yeah.
- [40:53]
Bud Elliott
Those are decisions that you, you consciously made and they were incorrect reads of the market and you're gonna have to pay for it for several years now, probably. And in some ways, regardless if it
- [41:05]
Brendan Knowles
was the coach not fundraising correctly, the athletic director misreading, where it was going to go, administration not being prepared for if whatever, whatever it is like the synchronicity that they used to have, we talked about everyone being in alignment, like doesn't feel like it exists right now, whatever the disconnect is. And there's fingers that could be pointed and I think everyone would have some level of like realistic, like, like a case for that. But where we talk about where Florida State is right now, like, I've gone back this to a Lot recently. Like, but. And everything, like your lot in life is your lot in life. And like, yeah, you catch bad breaks, but ultimately, like, you're in this room you're in right now for a reason, and it's based on at least a large part of the decisions that you've made. And that's kind of what I go back to for. For Florida State. Like, this is regardless of, you know, they made bad investments, they had bad luck. It could be this, could be that, but the results are the results, and they've been two years of really bad results. With this third year, you know, we go into it, the expectations are particularly high. And so you kind of just again, go back to this. You shrug your shoulders at. It's like, it is what it is at this point.
- [42:10]
Bud Elliott
Yeah. I mean, it. If you ate like crap for four years in a row, even if you wake up the next day like, hey, I get it now. I'm eat healthy. Like, yeah, you're still like, that's a big hole to dig out of. You know, it's not. It can't be an overnight thing.
- [42:23]
Brendan Knowles
Trust me.
- [42:24]
Bud Elliott
Overnight. Yeah. Right. Like, you didn't get there overnight. This was like, repeatedly and increasingly dumber each time as the market continue to shift against you. Like thinking that, you know, like, just holding, holding fast your position, like, well, in the last cycle, you know, until I think they realize, like, oh, shoot, okay, we're wrong.
- [42:42]
Brendan Knowles
Yeah.
- [42:43]
Bud Elliott
But I think they know they were wrong now. But it's just like, there's no, there's no switch to flip.
- [42:48]
Brendan Knowles
That's.
- [42:48]
Bud Elliott
That's something it's going to take a little while to dig out of. Right.
- [42:51]
Brendan Knowles
Because you've been telling people for a while this is how it's going to be. This is not how it is. And so. And you made investments otherwise, I always say, doesn't come from all the same spot. And I agree that it, like, I get that like you a bond for a stadium, a six figure or, gosh, nine figure stadium renovation isn't the same as, you know, a football roster each year. But, you know, money.
- [43:16]
Bud Elliott
Yeah, right. Yeah. Oh, man. All right, well, hey, maybe we'll see each other at the bowl game if they make one. Maybe, like, maybe Gasparilla Bowl.
- [43:26]
Brendan Knowles
I'm gonna be dancing in Shreveport.
- [43:28]
Bud Elliott
No, I'm not going to Shreveport. Okay, that, that.
- [43:31]
Brendan Knowles
Jeez.
- [43:33]
Bud Elliott
No, nothing wrong with Shreveport, but I'm just not gonna. Yeah, you want to go to the Hustler Club?
- [43:37]
Brendan Knowles
Are we allowed to say that? Cut it.
- [43:38]
Bud Elliott
I think they have the last shoot. One of the media guys was joking about this. It was. I think they either had, like, the last KFC buffet or something that still exists or, I don't know, still. No, but there's a casino, like, you know, it's. There are worse places to go for bowl season, maybe. All right. Oh, man. I'll see you.
- [44:04]
Brendan Knowles
See ya.
- [44:06]
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