← Cover 3 College Football
Cover 3 College Football
Expectations For ACC Teams In 2026: Who Can Contend With Miami? James Franklin’s VT Debut & More!
01:14:05
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A
Welcome Back to the COVID 3 podcast with your hosts, Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Cannell and Bud Elliott. It's your call for the best college football coverage from national signing day to the national championship and everything in between.
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B
CBS Sports presents the COVID 3 podcast.
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C
And welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Finelli, that's Bud Elliott, that's Canel. I'm Chip Patterson. Come to you live@YouTube.com cover3 and every. Get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe, smash that like and come and join us in the chat, aka the COVID 3 tailgate where they might be hiding in the group chat. We need to do a forensic investigation because Drew at 8:37am Eastern time is bringing private conversations forward and I'm a little uncomfortable. Drew says for Tom. Is Italy now a certified baseball country? I don't think that's nice. I, I this is for those who are not aware there were some final World cup qualifying matches yesterday and Italy could is that was did they just need the win against Bosnia?
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D
Yep.
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C
And they did not get the win. Losing in penalties. What's, what's do you want to reveal to the people? I mean, for those who are watching on YouTube.com cover3 and also have a sharp eye for international kits when it comes to football, they may be aware you want to announce your, your affiliation, your rooting interests for the, for the World cup this summer.
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D
Scotland's in the World Cup. I'm half Scottish. There we go.
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C
There we go.
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D
I'm in.
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C
Tom's in.
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A
We're going.
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C
We're going all.
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D
Italy is a baseball country. Scotland's a soccer country.
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C
Did they end up winning the Baseball Classic?
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D
No, they lost.
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C
Who won the Baseball Classic?
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D
Venezuela.
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C
Okay, well, how far. But they got to the Final Four.
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D
They got to the.
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C
Yeah, okay, got it. I just need to find.
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B
They need to find. Oh, no, that wasn't Italy. That wasn't Italy. What I was gonna say they need to find an electrician, but that was. Well, that was chat Chechia. It was a check guy. Yeah. That they pulled out the electrician to come out and threw like four and two thirds scoreless innings and struck out Shohei Otani.
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C
Well, I mean, yeah, you know, Italy, of course, the 2006 World cup champions not going to be making the trip over. I look as a Fiorentina supporter if Moise Keane has has an open summer to be able to make sure he's healthy for the the upcoming campaign.
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D
If Mo could hit an open net. Italy would be in the World cup right now.
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C
One. All right.
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B
You guys might as well be speaking Spanish right now. Me and Bud are just lost.
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D
Go Kiero.
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A
Taco Bell.
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C
Yeah, there you go. We'll be speaking ACC here today. That is the number one goal. That is the big topic as you see from the headline on YouTube or wherever you get your podcast. Continuing our series of if Vegas is right now to address some comments from Monday. When are we going to talk about Notre Dame? We will address Notre Dame's win total tomorrow just to lead off the mailbag, make sure they get their shine as well. Most of the publicly available win totals at the large sports books have not yet hit the full group of six in terms of us being able to break those down. But we will, we will address Notre Dame and as part of tomorrow's mailbag I'll consider it one of many mailbag questions if you would like to get in on the mailbag. We love when you jump in early, get the conversation started, get those questions in. We see them before the show starts. We'll be able to get to them throughout the show. We will also be taking your questions during the show but that's just a little heads up. YouTube.com cover 3 when the link goes live you can go ahead, jump in the tailgate, start asking your questions. We'll be hitting those as well. Big Ten scheduling one of the leftover big old bag of mail questions where listeners have given us a five star review and in that review put a mail bag question. But let's begin as we have with our other conferences. We did the Big Ten, the SEC, the Big 12. Now turning our attention to the ACC where much like the Big 12 kind of have one team that is standing all on its own in the Big Ten. In the SEC we can talk about the title contenders what the win totals say about the the that battle. Now we've got one team that is way ahead of everyone else. It is the reigning national runner up Miami Hurricanes over under win total at 10 and a half. Now it is not the bananas 11 and a half that Texas Tech had. Miami does have a few more spots where they could trip up along the way. But Elliot I ask you you've had to listen to enough soccer. You've had to listen to enough chip.
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A
I have.
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C
Let's is that a fair ten and a half read right to you.
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A
You know I given the schedule I, I, I do understand you know why they made it this again like these books don't want to just hold Your money and refund you on pushes, right? So like, are they really going to go nine and a half with this schedule? I, I, I guess you could and, and, and juice it over. That's kind of what I thought they would do. But you know, ten and a half juice under, you know, does make some sense. They're clearly spending a ton still. They clearly have a lot of physical talent on this team. I do have a little bit of a worry about losing, you know, a Bane, a Maui Noah. Like, like those were just guys who, like, they were there while they built it, right. They understood kind of what it was before they made it what it is, or at least what it was last year. Right. Like they were there for 23 and 24 as well. So I, I understand that. I, I do think Mentz is really good and I, I think that like, they paid up for him. Like, I think that's probably a good move by them. It's just there's a lot of turnover on this team and we don't know exactly like how some of those young guys are, are going to step into the role. They also did a pretty nice job in the portal, obviously, but they will need some of these former four and five stars to, to move up and actually like take roles. And I think the law of averages says that that's going to happen. It'd be kind of shocking if it didn't. But like, what's those guys leadership like? Are they all kind of, you know, doing the same? Like last year's team kind of felt like team on a mission in, in the second half of the year.
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C
Can I jump in real quick and address that? Yeah, I think there's an answer. It's two words and it's Mark Fletcher. I mean, from like, I mean, just to spend any time around Mark Fletcher, talk to anybody else around that program. Mark Fletcher is like still having him. Like, not even to mention how Malachi, Tony kind of impressed everybody with the way he picked it up. But Mark Fletcher has been there from the beginning of the build. He is right there from the backyard. He is the heartbeat. Like that, that is the guy who Mario Crystal Ball can count on to be Mario Crystal Ball's voice when it comes to the culture and building that thing out. Remember the story that Mario told about how Mark Fletcher had to put some of the early enrollees in their place during those playoff practices? Like, the early enrollees show up, they get to practice with the team while Miami's going on the run and yeah, I mean they're, they're high recruits. They might have thought it was one way. Mark Fletcher had to tell him it was another. I think that that's one place at least where my mind goes, where I'm not too worried about the drop off in culture because we've got a couple of guys and Mark Fletcher is the first one that comes to mind that I think will be able to continue that through line.
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B
I think the losing the two edge rushers is probably the biggest concern. You feel like the offense is pretty good hands. You went out and got yourself a quarterback. You mentioned Fletcher coming back. Tony, this guy's coming off the edge wreaked havoc. I will say though, when I talked to Jason Taylor, I asked him, this was before the national championship game we were doing at media day. I asked him, I was like, what's it like, you know, coaching these two guys, you know, they're so special. And he was pretty quick to point out, now this is a good coach. Like, he's pretty smart guy too. Yeah. He's like, it's not just these two. He's like, wait till you see some of these young guys. Wait till you see what they can do. So I do think they've done a pretty good job of a cupboard that is pretty, pretty well stocked now. Do they match that? Production is another thing. But I think they'll be okay. And then there is a pretty big gap between them, everybody else in the accident. So it's kind of like, I think that's where this number makes sense.
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D
Damn it. We talked about it with Texas Tech on Monday. Like there's such a gap. You look at the title odds, there's a huge gap between Miami and the rest of this league based on those. And I mean, if, if they finish under, it's going to feel like a very disappointing season. Even if you're 10 and 2, you're. Well, you'll probably win the league and you'll probably. Or you'll get to the ACC championship. You'll be in the playoff hunt. But like, if this Miami team doesn't dominate this version of the acc, how confident are you going to be in them going into the playoff?
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C
I think the, the presence of the Notre Dame game is going to give me a little bit of wiggle room where if they, if they beat Notre Dame but lose. How about this? If the Miami Hurricanes beat Notre Dame in South Bend but lose two ACC games, Tom, I am concerned even though they've got the Notre Dame win, but if they were to lose to Notre Dame and just get tripped up Once in conference play, I think that's where 8, no and 7 and 1 is going to be more sort of like an indicator to me about them being about that life, I guess.
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A
Yeah, like where's their trap game?
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D
Here
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B
at Wake Forest?
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D
No, no, at North Carolina a week before the Notre Dame game. I mean that feels like it. Maybe there's a letdown for Duke after the Notre Dame game.
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B
I want to remind you guys was a nine win team last year and you guys are like, no chance, no chance.
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A
You know, I, I thought about this kind of stuff this morning when I was going over this. Right. Like Clemson and Notre Dame are, are not trap games. They're like the obvious. You're getting up for game. You know, maybe, maybe Pitt just like with the way that Pitt plays, you know, it's, it's coming off FSU at home. It's before two road games. Like there's not a bye week, you know, baked into there. I would say Virginia Tech on short rest, you know, at home. But the thing is they had a scare two years ago with Cam Ward at home on a Friday night against the Hokies. Like it's not that hard for Crystal ball to be like, hey yo, look, this team has athletes. This team is pretty good. Like if you guys don't show up, this is how we get derailed. You know, like they should roll bc. I, I do think losing mints is a huge deal for Duke. Like, I'm not really concerned about that one. And like they have such a soft schedule to start in, in September to, to incorporate all these new parts.
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C
I, I think it's Virginia Tech that's my fast Friday night, quick turnaround, you're probably sitting in the top 10 nationally. You're looking at being favored by two touchdowns at home. Boston College after that, I mean, it's last season they finished their regular season with two road games and I thought performed well in those two road games. Those are, those are spots that kind of got their attention. I wonder if this is the opposite. When you're finishing home, home, home, home, you almost, you get through that Notre Dame game, you might feel like you can just coast the rest of the way. Don't even have to leave your apartment for the most part. I, I think that that'd be the one I'd be nervous about. Obviously we'll see where Virginia Tech is at at that point in the season, but as we're sitting here on April 1st, that's a. Yeah, I mean if James Franklin has a team that is pretty good I could see him being able to get that group ready to go. I mean, depends on if Miami's in the top five. Okay, if Miami's in the top five, James Franklin doesn't have his chance. But you know, if, if it's elsewhere, we'll see.
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D
Taking a shot,
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C
we'll see. Hey, that's the best thing about James Franklin being in the acc. You know, you don't have that many games against top five opponents. You know, it'll be great. You found the one weakness and you've eliminated it. It was a smart decision through and through.
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B
Are we at the point though, like I think the point of this too. Are we at the point where we trust my. I mean they've had back to back 10 win seasons. They're just coming off national championship. Do we just trust them to roll through here? I think they're getting at that level.
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D
I trust him more. Yeah.
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C
Yeah, I trust him more. And this is a one great note here from Sean or question that might follow with that trust. Has Mario calmed the talk about his lack of in game management with a trip to the national championship?
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A
I think certainly some. Right. I mean we, we thought his timeout usage against A M was, was pretty sketch, but for the rest of the year it was, it was pretty good. There was one thing in the natty, but it wasn't like one of those like oh my God, we're going to talk about this a ton tomorrow type things, you know, and I think like the, there are tremendous gains we made just by, by cleaning up the really dumb stuff. And I think he has done that at least somewhat.
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C
Most of the really bad stuff was what, 23 and 24. Yeah, yeah. I think we're enough removed from the big WTF moments and then you know, proof is in the results. Danny, you win 10 games in back to back seasons, right? You, you go toe to toe with Texas A and M and Texas A and M. You go toe to toe with Ryan Day in Ohio State. You know, you win those, those epic games. I mean how many tough decisions had to be made in the win against Ole Miss in the semifinals? That was an intense close game with lots of opportunities to bungle it. So yeah, Sean, my. If, if you want to hold out in your own personal ratings or rankings but when we do our coach rankings in May, Mario crystal ball will be moving up because one of the things that had me reconsidering because he's obviously got the development, he's obviously got the recruiting, but one of the last pieces of the puzzle for me to look at him as one of the top coaches in the sport was some of the in game management stuff and I think a lot of that has been calmed. So I imagine he'll be soaring on my ballot. I bet he moves up in the coach rankings as well. What about their top competition? The SMU Mustangs have an over underwind total of eight and a half. Danny does that. We got Kevin Jennings back.
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B
Yeah, just outside the top 10. Maybe 11 or 12 in top 10 quarterbacks. As Rhett Lashley did not like my list and he told me so. He did not like my top 10 quarterbacks with no Kevin Jennings on it. But I do think 26. Yeah, yeah, the one we just did.
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C
Yeah, he got you on the radio.
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A
None of us had Jennings in, right? Or did Tom?
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B
No, none of us had him in there, but I did. I. I had him in there and then I think I told you guys in the show I left off two names and I was like, oh crap. They're like blaringly obvious top 10 quarterbacks. He's really good. And I think we're almost to the point where you have to trust. Kind of like we're talking about Miami and I think the wind total is pretty accurate. Like they're going to be around eight or nine wins and if they get hot and kind of things work out, see them challenging Miami for an ACC championship.
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A
That opening game's huge. Like you got to go win that one in Tallahassee. And if you get that, you know they're favored in what, all remaining conference games except for the game at Louisville. I, I think your odds of getting
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C
into also in September is a wild, fast start for smu.
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B
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
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A
Like we're going to know about SMU pretty early, you know. Now granted like injuries and other stuff can, can affect it down the stretch, but man, they have a soft schedule in October. I mean they go Boston College, uva, Cal, Syracuse, and then they also get Wake and Stanford in the back half. And awake was, you know, better than we thought last year. Like, and also pretty lucky in terms of like close game score stuff. So, you know, like I, yeah, I think they have a really nice road, you know, to Charlotte. Is it Charlotte this year? Is it Tampa?
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C
I thought we were in Charlotte for at least permanently.
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A
Okay. Yeah, like they have a really nice road to Charlotte if they can take care of September.
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D
It's a very manageable home slate. Like, look at that. UC Davis, Missouri State, bc, Virginia, Cal, BT and Wake at home. Like you should be going undefeated at home this year, and there are seven wins right there. So Louisville on the road will be tough. Florida State to open the season on the road, we've learned can be tough for teams. Notre Dame's on the road like Stanford on the road at the end of the year, the environment's probably not going to be great. So that's nothing but like Syracuse. Road trips are always difficult for teams. But like, this is a team that, with that schedule and what they have coming back, they should be competing at the top. So it's like if we're looking at it for what the expectations are, if they're not over this at the end of the year. It was a bad year for SMU
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B
with a veteran quarterback coming back too. Yeah. You know, but he was banged up last year. I think his health is something to keep an eye on, you know, and I was, I was wrong in SMU because I thought it would take them a little bit of time. I thought they would be very competitive in the acc, but I thought it would take some time. That's where I was wrong. They stepped right in the league and have not blinked, have been right at the top.
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C
Two things stand out here. Number one would be no. We always say, like, what does this say about this team? What does it say about the league that SMU is at eight and a half and that's our next best competition?
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A
I mean, they're. What are they a touchdown to Miami on the rate?
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C
I. I haven't.
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A
They also have. They have the Irish game, which is
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C
going to add another. But I mean, that's.
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A
So does at Notre Dame. If you were just doing like aggregate wins here. Like, if you're getting to eight and a half, you're only getting like 0.2 or 0.25. At the Irish, you know, they're. They're other non. Like, so their, their expectation of the non con is like 2.25. So their expectation in conference then is. Is, you know, remove that. It's probably like six and a quarter to get to that eight and a
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C
half bud just let you in in his brain. You guys are all broken.
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A
I mean that's not exactly how this works, but it's like it's probably the best audio format friendly
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C
implied probabilities conversion.
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A
UC Davis in Missouri state, like UC is pretty much 100. Missouri is like they're an FBS program.
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C
But that's a 1.0 in the way that you're talking right now, right?
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D
Yeah. We also got a peek into the mind of Chip where he was very impressed by basic math.
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C
Yes, 100%. You know how long it's been since I've taken a math class? 20 years. So the other piece of this is there's a lot of yada yada ing about that last game at Stanford, as if SMU did not crap its pants at Cal in the last week of the regular season last year. That. I mean, what. What the hell? ACC office. You're gonna send the same team back to the Bay Area when odds are likely they are once again sitting on the doorstep of making the ACC championship game? I mean, would they go down like 17 points in the first half, end up losing by three? I mean, that was just a. It was the epitome. And listen, Rhett, clearly you are a big fan of the COVID 3 podcast. Thank you so much for watching. Thank you so much for listening. I know that you're not taking that lightly. You are not going to yada yada after the scars of what happened last season, because it might be possible that for SMU to accomplish what it wants to accomplish, which is competing for an ACC championship and trying to go make the College Football Playoff for the second time in three years, that you are going to need every bit of your focus to go get it done against Tavita Pritchard and. And the Stanford Cardinal there in the last week of the season. Anything else on the ponies? Yep, bud.
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A
Do you have to go 7 and 2 to make it, you think? Or do you think 6 and 3 with tiebreakers in this league gets you in?
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D
6 and 3 can get you in? Yeah, I would. 7 to 2 probably definitely gets you
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C
in,
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A
depending on 7. Yeah, I think 7 and 2 is. Is pretty likely to get you in
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C
because SMU and Louisville and we're going to get to the Cardinals here in just a little bit because they're playing each other. That feels super significant for Tybre. Yes.
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A
Oh, 1 million percent. And they also don't play Clemson if it's. If it's SMU and another team and they have to go to the like conference now, granted. Do we have the AC tiebreakers yet? We'll probably see those this summer.
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B
They haven't announced those, right?
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C
No, I will get them at media days, I think.
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A
But like, combined opponent winning percentage is pretty much a tiebreaker in every league to some extent. So if it got to that, I think they would be in trouble. This is a pretty soft schedule overall in. In the conference. No Miami, no Clemson. They might like. They might have to go 7 and 2. I don't think I like their odds of doing well at six and three in the league.
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C
The good news is if you do lose in Tallahassee. History says a loss in Tallahassee week one means you go to the College Football Playoff.
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A
This is facts.
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C
So you know, you might want to think about that. Rhett. All right, let's. Before we hit a break, let's keep it going to some of these teams at the top. Then we will hit a break, get into the new head coaches, the Louisville Cardinals at seven and a half. We talked a little bit about Lincoln Keenholtz and you know how much trust you're willing to give a Jeff Braum quarterback. You know, Jeff Brahm has a type. He's got a type. He's got him. He's got Lincoln Keenholtz and that type usually is successful. Right. Jeff Brahm does a good job of maximizing usually his, his quarterback play, but there's a lot of turnover there. And the Cardinals last year within the conference, a few head scratchers. You know, this was a team that I think we were counting on usually to be right up there in the old format. Eight games, you know, like a 6 and 2, maybe a 71 and 4 and 4 in conference play. So while they had some big wins, they had some really disappointing losses. The non conference includes one of the biggest games of week one. That would be against Ole Miss. Tom, as you're, as you're looking at Louisville, what does seven and a half tell you about the Cardinals in 2026?
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D
Little, little tempered, aren't they? Like the expectations considering the schedule, considering what Louisville has done, like this is a team that won nine games last year. I know they have a new qb, they've got new guys coming back. But just based on where they typically are, I don't know, it's, it's. I feel like if you go 7 and 5, don't you have to be like if you're a Louisville fan and you go seven and five, do you consider that a good year based on what you think should be happening? I mean, I know you get Ole Miss start tough game, you finish on the road at Kentucky. So two of your non cons are SEC games. That's always, you know, difficult to do for anybody. But you look in the acc, there's no Miami, there's no Virginia Tech. Like this is a schedule I feel like you should be able to take advantage of.
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A
No Clemson.
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D
Well, yeah, but they're dead usually that.
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C
No, usually that's good for Louisville. Yeah, Louisville's kind of got Clemson's number I. I think seven and a half is a bearish number. Tom, I'm kind of with you. Not that I am confident to run here and say over our picks will come later in the summer, but I, I like the way you put that. If I'm a Louisville fan, if I am a Louisville booster, if I am working for Louisville 7 and 5 football season, given the way that we are investing in the kind of standard we're trying to set, I mean this is a program that's won 28 games in the last three years.
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D
So I don't know Dame. I mean it's.
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C
Yeah.
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A
Like the, the non con. It. You know, Ole Miss, their opening dogs. Right. You know, do you have what Kentucky, which should be much improved. You still. You're only getting four conference road games, not five, which I, I think they probably figured this out. Okay. Like if they're going to have to play Kentucky on the road, we don't also want to give them five road games because then that's going to give them six home. So a couple of those trips could be tricky. Like Edncy State is not a layup. You know, hosting Florida State, I don't think FSU is good but like they're probably not worse than league. So you know, I guess like they don't have as many layups on this schedule as others do and I think like the lack of layups adds up fast. Like if you swapped their schedule with SMUs, are the numbers swapped as well?
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C
Like they could move to eight and a half and.
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A
And Louisville would be at seven and a half.
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C
Yeah. Louisville at eight and a half. But I hear you. Yes. Sorry.
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D
Another bonus to the schedule. Chip, to touch on what you talked about earlier. No west coast trip. You don't have to go play Cal, you don't have to go play Stanford. So travel wise, the furthest they're going is what, New York.
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A
Yeah.
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B
Mm.
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A
That's a good point. I mean everything is pretty local.
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C
Your personnel wise reminder. Isaac Brown back. He was banged up a lot this year after a really strong debut back in 2024. Maybe a full full season of health could be able to get him a little bit more explosive wide receiver rooms kind of retooled. Curious to see what we're going to get there. And then defensively, you. You want to make sure that you've got a group that's going to be able to have the same kind of like disruption, same kind of havoc, even though they've lost a couple of those key pieces there. Anything else on the card stand out.
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A
I do think they are in that group that if Miami comes back to earth some like they're in the group that okay, if Miami comes back to earth son then this next group if they play to the like the top of their ceiling is capable of winning this thing.
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C
And when I said Louisville had Clemson's number I think that's still just memories of them sending everyone to the exits before the start of the fourth quarter.
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B
So they should beat him last year if they had a kicker. Yeah they would beat him last year.
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A
Chris in the chat is right. I mean Louisville's 1 in 7 all time against Clemson but I feel like they have played them tough. That was it 2024 that they went in Death Valley and beat him.
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D
Yeah.
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B
Like manhandle.
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C
Yeah.
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B
Again last year on sprinkles didn't last year they have two game winning kicks they missed.
- [27:54]
C
Yes.
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B
That were like not that hard.
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C
Yeah they bungled that game and they also bungled the cow game at home.
- [28:05]
A
They also bungled a Stanford game two years ago out there.
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D
Just a lot of bungling going on.
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C
Depth of the league.
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B
Come on. It's a deep crap together.
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A
Cards like so much. This is dependent on qb.
- [28:19]
C
Oh yeah.
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A
You know they'll probably go as he goes somewhat now I, I'm confident in Braum to manage around a guy who is just okay. But like just okay is not going to like get you to where you want to go.
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D
Let's all go on the record right now. Who's better, Miller Moss or Lincoln production wise.
- [28:39]
C
So that's what we need. We need to predict based on this season.
- [28:41]
D
I need to know who you think is better right now.
- [28:45]
A
Lincoln.
- [28:46]
B
Lincoln. It's a guess.
- [28:51]
D
Come on.
- [28:52]
C
I want to say a prediction. I think, I think that Lincoln Keenholtz will have better completion percentage and passer efficiency and touchdown interception ratio than Miller Moss did at Louisville.
- [29:06]
D
Do you think he's better?
- [29:07]
B
Yes. I don't know. I think he will be. I think he'll get you significantly more production from the quarterback position.
- [29:16]
D
Yeah, I think he won't make the same dumb mistakes that make a big difference.
- [29:22]
C
That's kind of where I was like is he a more talented individual on air right now? Throw him out on an empty field doing drills. I don't know. But do I think he will have a better season? Yes, I do. So it's, it's. It's ultimately unproven. All right. Coming up on the other side we take a look at the new head coaches. We've already got One James Franklin mentioned. What about his debut season in Blacksburg. Plus Tosh Lupoi, Tavita Pritchard and then the coaches under pressure and more.
- [29:54]
D
Next,
- [29:58]
A
Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile with a message for everyone paying big wireless way too much. Please, for the love of everything good in this world, stop with Mint. You can get premium wireless for just $15 a month. Of course, if you enjoy overpaying.
- [30:11]
D
No judgments. But that's weird. Okay, one judgment anyway.
- [30:16]
A
Give it a try. @mintmobile.com Switch upfront payment of $45 for
- [30:21]
C
3 month plan equivalent to $15 per month required intro rate first 3 months only. Then full price plan options available, taxes and fees extra. See full terms@mintmobile.com
- [30:31]
A
this episode brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever find yourself playing the budgeting game? Shifting a little money here, a little there, hoping it all works out. Well, with the name your price tool from Progressive, you can get a better budgeter and potentially lower your insurance bill too. You tell Progressive what you want to pay for car insurance and they'll help find you all options within your budget. Try it today@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates Price and coverage match limited by state law. Not available in all states. All right, look, like I, I, we are actively working to address the camera zoom issue. We have downloaded logitune. We have downloaded G hub.
- [31:20]
D
It.
- [31:21]
A
Yeah, it's not, I think at this point we are probably on to just buy another webcam. Like satellite view is not really what we're going for. It's, it's, we're aware of the situation. It's, it's, it's being triaged.
- [31:37]
C
All right, listen, you, you brought it up. There is one thing you have not tried, and I say this with love, moving closer, getting out of that very comfortable seat and just moving closer to the. That is true. This.
- [31:47]
A
Yeah.
- [31:49]
C
Relaxed in a lo.
- [31:54]
B
We're doing it wrong. Maybe he's doing it right.
- [31:56]
A
Okay, now I'm closer. Is that better?
- [31:59]
D
Oh yeah, look at.
- [32:00]
A
All right, we're not, we're not sitting back in the cut so bad. Okay.
- [32:03]
C
It's one of those like user error type things. Like. Well, one way to make yourself bigger is to move closer to the camera. Like I've been in a hotel room kind of like, like squatting down for an HQ hit with my laptop, you know, trying to fill it up so you can work on it. All right, let's, let's get into those first year head coaches. James Franklin. A lot of excitement in Blacksburg and then A win total that I think is, I would not say sobering, but I would say a realistic clear eyed view of what we should expect right away in year one. And that is really what if Vegas is right is all about. Danny, you see six and a half for the Hokies. A non conference schedule that's pretty manageable too. Let's. I'll save my thoughts here. Like what's, what's your thought on what this number is telling us about where Virginia Tech stands in the acc way
- [32:57]
B
below expectations is where Vegas sits on this one. I think, I think Virginia Tech is going to be a. I think they're going to gain some steam at media days. And James Franklin's out there playing that role of statesman that he does so well selling the Hokies. I think they're going to be better than this. But Vegas usually knows, you know, and maybe then maybe it's all right, give it another year, you know, takes a little time to get the right roster in there to get the right people, buy the right players. But I would say this is if it's. It's hard to say seven wins is a bad year, but it's gonna, it's gonna be a little bit of a the honeymoon is over type of reaction.
- [33:43]
D
I think I'm driving the turkey train.
- [33:47]
C
All right, let's go.
- [33:49]
D
We're starting 5, 0, like so we should be able to get past this win total, but vmi, Old Dominion, Maryland BC and then pitted home. We got that. We got that. Now we're going on the road to play Cal. That's probably where we're going to lose our first game. Georgia Tech. I mean, we don't know like Haynes is gone, Philo's gone, Buster's gone. We got to see what the Yellow Jackets look like, but they got to come to us. Clemson on the road, not easy. SMU on the road, not easy. Stanford at home. Gimme. That's, that's just W right there. Miami on the road, tough. Virginia at home, rivalry game, that's another w. We're going 8 and 4 at worst.
- [34:28]
B
I think that's the expectation from almost every Virginia Tech fan. So like if you go below that and man, if you're 6 and 6, then it's like what do we do?
- [34:38]
C
Yeah, I, Danny, I was just thinking this number is way too close to 5 and 7 because James Franklin going 5 and 7 would be a like total depression disaster. What did we just do? I've made a huge mistake type situation.
- [34:57]
A
I'll push back a little bit. Like, I do think he's going to improve them and improve them quickly. I'm not totally sold that at Maryland is a lock. Maryland is a very up and down team. They have a lot of young talent. You know, Tech is going to be a very new team now. Granted a lot of it played together at prior stops. Like, I don't know. Like, are they really a lock over Pitt at home?
- [35:18]
D
Hell yeah.
- [35:19]
A
I don't, I don't know, man. I. Maybe, but I don't think that's, that's locked. Like I look at the schedule, VMI should be a lock. Old Dom should be a lock. I kind of think Boston College should be a lock. But it is on the road. But I'll go ahead and give it to him. Like at Cal is not a lock at all. Like that could be a dog there. I don't really know what to think of Georgia Tech. I do think losing Haynes King is a big deal and I know they really believed in the backup who's now at Florida. So you know there's some QB questions there, but hell no there's not. Alberto. But like, okay. Even if he's just okay, I don't think like, like it's really in the DNA for, for Brent. Key teams just roll over. Like, okay, party's over. It could be, but we have nothing I've seen from that program so far. At least we believe that's going to be the case. Stanford at home should be a lock. But like your dogs at Clemson, your dogs at smu, your dog's at Miami, you're kind of coin flipping against uva maybe. Weird bye week stuff here.
- [36:18]
C
I'll tell you what.
- [36:19]
D
They first eight games without one.
- [36:22]
C
If you want to get into some vibesy stuff. Number one, playing Georgia Tech on the return from Berkeley sucks. Yeah, yeah, that's just, that's not fun. Playing Georgia Tech is never fun, but that's, that's a tough opponent to draw in that spot. And if you want to talk about the, the vibes and history and all of things of that nature. Old Dominion, long history of being a thorn in the side of Virginia Tech. James Franklin has a history with Maryland. Yeah, but Tom, is he. Is that a look ahead? Is he going to be. So is he going to already be thinking about his return to College park and then he's going to end up getting nabbed by Ricky, Ronnie and the Monarchs, who might have lost, who might have lost all their offensive production out the door to the transfer portal, but still could be a little feisty.
- [37:21]
D
I Know, we have like, attention spans that only last 20 minutes. Last year is having way too much of an impact on how people view James Franklin. The problem James Franklin always had at Penn State was that he couldn't beat Ohio State and Michigan and all those guys. He beat the hell out of everybody else. This is a schedule full of everybody else until he gets to Miami. Like, these are all games that he's very likely to be in contention and win Maryland, they're going to like beat the piss out of like, he hates Maryland for what? You know, he was supposed to be the head coach there.
- [37:50]
C
Remember?
- [37:50]
D
Didn't get it left for Vanderbilt. This man went to Vanderbilt and won football games. He had a bad season last year. Virginia Tech is going eight and four minimum.
- [38:01]
C
Love that.
- [38:03]
B
No, no, I would lean towards that mime. I don't know if I'm quite as bullish as you are, but I, I would lean towards that too.
- [38:09]
D
Turkey Tom.
- [38:11]
C
So we've ACC will not be going on at the same time as Big Ten this year. So here's. Here's my bold prediction. We'll do a bold predictions episode obviously coming up in the next several weeks. Bold prediction. Danny goes to ACC media days, talks to James Franklin, comes back glowing. The upgrade in Danny's mind, that's the bump, right?
- [38:34]
D
Right.
- [38:35]
C
I'm guilty of it too. I talked to a coach, makes me feel good. I walk away. I'm like, let's go.
- [38:40]
B
I mean, I fell for that trap last year, though.
- [38:43]
C
I did.
- [38:43]
B
I did go all in on Penn State to win the Natty.
- [38:46]
C
Hey, James, what's up?
- [38:48]
B
Do you remember that?
- [38:49]
C
Yeah, we had a great interview last year. What happened?
- [38:53]
B
Why does it make me look bad?
- [38:55]
C
Yeah, the. Anything else on the. The Hokies? Oh, what? Just personnel wise. If you were to make a prediction, how do you think the quarterback battle ends up? I thought overlooked. Decent season last year, difficult position. Thought it was pretty good. Doesn't get talked about a lot. Is that fair?
- [39:12]
D
Yeah, he had the same pretty much and slightly better numbers than Aller did.
- [39:19]
C
And then who's our other competition there?
- [39:23]
D
Bryce Baker.
- [39:25]
C
Yeah, I'm going to say Gronke Meyer. All right. Also speak. Let's head out to the Bay Area where both Cal and Stanford do have new head coaches. Tasha Lupoi comes over after a successful stint as a defensive coordinator at Oregon. He, as we detailed extensively here on the COVID 3 podcast, did the most important thing that you could do. The moment he got hired, he flew to Hawaii and he locked down Jiren Kave. Saga Poelli making sure that the very, very gifted quarterback was going to be on board. Then he did the next best thing you could do, which is reload a wide receiver room that was among the leaders in the ACC and drop percentage last year. So we've got our quarterback in place. We think we have added some upgrades in terms of the wide receiver room. Now there is the defensive side of the ball that you've got to look at as well and just sort of the, the Cal existence in the acc, which is always a little bit interesting. So the win total here is six and a half, which means that bowl is the expectation for year one of the Tosh Lupoi era. But do you agree with that one?
- [40:32]
A
I mean, I, I definitely think Cal has, has higher hopes internally than just going to a bowl. I think they, they really have some nice receivers. I think I, I think JKS is, is awesome. You know, the schedule is I think pretty manageable. I mean they open with ucla, that, that's a game that I, I think I favor Cal in. You know, at Syracuse, I, I don't think like I was very, hey, Syracuse is kind of smoke and mirrors. In 24 when they were running out to that crazy good record. I don't think they're quite as bad as they showed last year. I think a lot of that was quarterback injury and some unfortunate circumstances. They're probably somewhere in the middle. That's not an easy road trip. But I, I think that's one Cal has to feel pretty good about going and getting. But I'm sure Syracuse probably looks at it and says, hey, week two in our place, they, they got to fly east. We got a good shot there. You know, you get Clemson on a Friday night at home. Okay. You know, at unlv, like I don't think they're so like that. They're so good. That can't be a losable game, you know, but ultimately it is a game they expect to win. Like you get Tech at home, the back half with these back to, back to back roadies. They do have the bye week between NC State and uva. But like for our listeners at home who don't have this on screen, you know, at SMU, at NC State, at UVA, like if you go 1 and 2 there, I think you're probably still hitting your goals. You got to win the big game against Stanford and then, you know, pit at home like this feels pretty manageable if this offense is just rocking and rolling. And if it's not, then you know, this certainly maybe Six and a half feels optimistic.
- [42:17]
B
Man, I think you better go over six and a half. I mean you've had six wins last three years with Justin Wilcox, you know you pushed him aside, you put a lot of money into your quarterback. You know you're going to upgrade the coach. I think that puts some pressure on Tosh Lupoid to deliver an over here. They've got the second best or in the rankings they have the second best in the ACC portal class. He is bringing four defenders with him from Oregon. Gotta feel like that's pretty good. You know you pick some select some guys that you like that you would think would be able to help you out in the acc. So I think, I think you kind of expect to be over this.
- [42:58]
D
I'm wary of the Calgorithm. They got very mad at us last year for taking the under. I think it was what, five and a half and then they really proved us wrong by winning seven games. But, but you mentioned the schedule. It's like they only have one road game in the pacific time zone. Unlv like they have to go to Syracuse, they have to go to Dallas, they have to go to Raleigh, they have to go to Charlottesville. And you mentioned those three in a row. What you didn't mention is that first one against SMU on the road. That's a Friday night after playing Wake at home on Saturday. Then your game the next week at NC State, another Friday night game. So you do get the extra day because you played the Friday before. But it's still a quote unquote weeknight short week game on the road, flying across the country. Both times you come home for your buy. Then you're flying back across the country to play Virginia again. Jks, I get why we're all very high on him. He has a great arm, he made some great throws. He's also had some bumps last year that you expect from a freshman. His whoopsie daisy rate ranked 84th out of what, 118 qualified quarterbacks last year. So does he take better care of the football? Because this is not a team that when I look at it that can afford to be loose like they have to. If they make mistakes they will pay for it. And we saw that happen at times last year. So for them to get back to 7 and 5 or 8 and 4 even with this schedule, we need to see steps forward at the quarterback position. We need to see steps forward everywhere. Like Tashu Poi has done a very good job getting started with the recruiting and everything. Like there's reasons to be optimistic about this program. Two years from now. I think this season could still be in that kind of set. It could be very similar to last year and that road slate. I know they're not playing team wise, they're not playing the greatest teams, but just the way that it works out and the scheduling logistics, it's tough.
- [44:46]
C
We just. That's the. So those are three competent football programs. Tom, you said that it's not the toughest.
- [44:54]
D
Well, they're not Miami, they're not Virginia Tech. They're not Clemson on the road. They're not, you know, they don't have Notre Dame. They don't have those teams. Not saying they stink. I'm just saying that's tough, those three teams. And in that order, with that travel, like Bud mentioned, one and two, like, yeah, I think you're probably going one and two in that stretch. I think they might go oh and three.
- [45:14]
C
I think they could go one and four in road games and still have a good quality team. I think you could get tripped up at unlv. I think that you've got that little. And how about this one? I mean, do my eyes deceive me or is that nine games before a bye week?
- [45:31]
D
Nine.
- [45:31]
B
That's what the chat. Garrett was all over that too. Nine straight.
- [45:35]
D
Yeah.
- [45:36]
B
Brutal stretch.
- [45:37]
D
And that ninth game is on a Friday night flying, you know, not across the country, but short week flying down to Dallas from Berkeley. That's your second shortest road trip.
- [45:48]
C
Yeah. And then the UNLV is between Clemson and Virginia Tech. I think it's a really tough schedule. Going over here would be a very successful season. I think so. For sure. So the number seems to be bullish on the quarterback. Sounds like a couple of us are bullish on the quarterback as well. How bullish are we feeling about Davita Pritchard? Year one was Stanford. Three and a half is the win total.
- [46:20]
D
No clue.
- [46:21]
A
Yeah. Really looking forward to talking to Jackson Moore here, obviously, when we get a chance to. But I. I don't know what to think. I don't. I don't think they're as bad as they were last year, but, man, I don't. I don't war penciling them as an auto win on most of these for a reason.
- [46:44]
D
It's just.
- [46:44]
B
Are they. I know they've talked about doing a little more with nil, but they're just so far behind.
- [46:53]
A
Yeah.
- [46:54]
B
And it looks like they're not really doing that much outside of the rev share, which again, at Stanford, you're probably not Dedicating as much as other schools are to football, probably a little bit more dedicated to some of the other sports, you know, evenly distributing it out there. I just wonder if they're, you know, barring a significant donation from some Stanford alum. I think this is probably where they're going to be for the foreseeable future unless they change something dramatically with their approach.
- [47:25]
D
I mean look, look at the road slate like okay, Duke and Wake, okay, maybe, but you've got to play Notre Dame on the road. You've got to go on the road for Louisville, you've got to go on the road for Tech. You're on the road for your rivalry game against Cal. You get Miami early in the season, it's at home, but it's still freaking Miami. Like this is. We've seen a lot of kind of manageable schedules so far as we've been going through this exercise. This is not a manageable schedule. Not just because it's Stanford. This is a tough schedule for what you're looking for in the acc. Like you don't have Clemson, but you've got everybody else. And Notre Dame,
- [48:00]
B
they just better watch out. October 17th, coming to town.
- [48:07]
A
Watch out.
- [48:08]
B
They had Duke there through three quarters last year.
- [48:11]
D
True.
- [48:11]
A
Oh my gosh.
- [48:13]
C
So help me with this one and I'll, I'll throw it, I guess Bud's way. But if anybody's got an answer, does Stanford still deal with some of the same calendar and academic issues that prevent heavy transfer portal influx of talent and if I have been picking up on it correctly, there might almost be an acknowledgment there where whether it is the investment, whether it is the resources, this is going to be a multiple year build where they're going to try to do it by identifying good recruits out of high school and kind of build a younger group up. My notes on Stanford is that this will be a young team that will make some young team mistakes and be dealing with some difficulties of playing the 22 year olds that still exist out there. But because they only got six players out of the portal and for a first year head coach they lost players out of the portal. I mean the, the plus minus there is a big minus is, is that the big program approach for Stanford to just go young and try to build it up.
- [49:28]
A
I, I think that like they are trying to do that way. I, I haven't heard much about like additional changes. I know they were trying to get a lot of that stuff changed as far as the, the entrance requirements, the, for the listeners who don't remember. One of their things was they had a real hard time for a while getting their own undergrad students accepted into grad school. So they were losing out on those quality like fifth year opportunities for their guys who were more veteran. And so the team was staying, you know, kind of younger than they wanted it to. They were saying they were getting that fixed. I don't, I don't know. Like, do we see that getting fixed?
- [50:02]
C
But is it the academic requirements of Stanford that keep them from even being able to get a junior or like a regular, a sophomore or a junior who might want to go and play for davita Pritchard? You don't have the grades. If you don't have everything pulled together, you're just not going to be able to get in.
- [50:20]
A
There's definitely some of that. I mean like, but they're not the only school that deals with that. Right. Like some schools, like, hey, the too many of these credits are not going to transfer to us. Right. So that, that's a problem. But that's not solely a Stanford problem. The not getting your own kids into grad school. That was the only place I had heard that was having trouble with that. Like to me that stood out as unique for the Cards. Not, you know, not the other stuff as much.
- [50:49]
C
Misconceptions. There's like places that are hard to get into. There are places where it's hard to stay eligible because they take academics seriously. Sometimes those two things can be different. Stanford by my read is both, you know that you have to be ready to go to school. School. And also it's probably a little difficult to get in.
- [51:08]
D
You mentioned there are six players in the class. Three of them are FCs, including two from the Ivy League.
- [51:16]
A
Yeah.
- [51:16]
D
And then the other three are UCLA, Michigan and Washington. So there clearly are still some academic restrictions on what they can do transfer wise.
- [51:26]
B
And if. Good luck trying to go young and develop them because if you get a player who's good for a year or two, he gets an offer from Texas Tech like David Bailey did and he's gone. Because they're not, they can't match anybody.
- [51:39]
C
Well, that's where I would hope that Stanford and the idea that Stanford should have Reese, like there's always money in the banana stand. I mean like you should. I don't think they care.
- [51:48]
D
Does the player have an app that he's working on? Because if he doesn't, he's probably not getting it.
- [51:54]
C
Like that's, that's kind of where my thought is, is that if If I was sitting there and Andrew Luck was pitching me on the five year plan for Stanford and they were saying, look, we are going to try to recruit the same players that Duke is recruiting. We're going to try to recruit the same players Notre Dame is recruiting. Like, we're going to try to go identify those kind of guys, win those recruiting wars, use our rev, share our nil, our resources to get them, then retain them and continue to re up and continue to be able to. Because that seems like way more of something that you can manage than LSU taking the war chest into the portal and just letting the money gun fly like that's just not something that is functional for the Cardinal.
- [52:35]
D
Notre Dame's probably a little more relaxed on their athlete requirements.
- [52:41]
C
History. History would say so. But who?
- [52:44]
B
That's what Vanderbilt did. Vanderbilt started to say, you know what? We can't win without taking a few exceptions. And one was one of their best players that's had one of the biggest, biggest turnarounds in the program history with Diego Pavia.
- [52:58]
C
He wasn't a straight A student.
- [53:01]
B
I don't know, maybe a couple bees in there.
- [53:03]
C
I don't know. That's not fair to Diego. No, it's not. I, I, I apologize. I apologize. He might have been, who knows? Sorry, Barton. Let me know. I owe you one. Anything else here on the Cardinal? Obviously, just a, it feels like there's bigger questions than there are here because as Bud mentioned, you're going through a conference where it's hard to separate teams from each other. What did I call it? What did I, Danny, I call it a turkey sandwich or something. You know, it's just like, yeah, ham sandwich. Like, yeah, yes. Yeah. There's a lot of teams that are like, sure, yeah, that's fine, it'll feed you. But then there's a very few teams at the top and very few teams at the bottom. Unfortunately for the Cardinal, from on paper, it does look like they are a team that you can sort to the bottom. Coming up on the other side, what does a win total of six and a half say about the pressure on Mike Norvell? And is there pressure on former NFL coaches like Bill o' Brien and Bill Belichick as they face win totals that say they're not close to the postseason? All that and more nukes. Spring starts at the Home Depot and we are bringing the heat to your backyard this season.
- [54:14]
A
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A
Adorable.
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C
Also expensive. Sell their pint sized pieces on Depop and list them in minutes with no
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B
selling fees because somewhere a dad refuses
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C
to pay full price for the clothes
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A
his kids will outgrow tomorrow and he's
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C
ready to buy your son's entire wardrobe right now. Consider your future growth spurt budget secured and start selling on Depop where taste recognizes taste. Payment processing fees and boosting fees still apply. See website for details. Back here on the COVID 3 podcast another big piece of the if Vegas is Right is taking a look at coaches under pressure and what the win total might say about the expectations going into the season. Now there has been a lot of minutes discussing Mike Norvell and his status and pressure within the Florida State community. We have our two knolls here. It's a discussion that has been going on since last October. So I apologize that we're circling back here, but we have to be thorough. We are committed to our process if nothing else. And so six and a half Danny, fair number. I mean that's of does that help Mike Norvell, I guess is something that's less interesting right now because there's bigger pieces. There is a six and a half, a fair number for the team that you see in Tallahassee.
- [56:05]
B
They've got seven wins the last two years. Two wins two years ago. Now they granted they doubled it. They're going the right direction, you could make that case. But absolutely, I think it's fair. I'd be astounded if it was anything higher. I'd love to see him go over. But I think it's a fair number with the portal additions or lack thereof with any really big great players. Absolutely. I think it's fair.
- [56:34]
A
Yeah, I mean they're probably slight dogs at home to SMU to open the year. Like they're definitely dogs at Bama, they're dogs at Louisville, they're dogs at Miami. I think their dogs at Pit, their dogs to Florida, you know, depending on what you think of NC State at home. But like that's, you know, that's a difficult sandwich spot there right between Pitt and Florida. They probably dogs to Clemson at Home small. They lost to UVA last year. That, that, that's a home game. I. This is not a real easy schedule within the ACC for a mid level ACC team to have.
- [57:14]
B
Right.
- [57:15]
C
Which is what Florida State is undoubtedly.
- [57:17]
A
Correct. Yeah. Like this roster is, is nothing special. So I mean you, you don't miss Louisville, you don't miss Miami, you don't miss Clemson, you don't miss SMU like you're, you're playing. Those are what, the four conference favorites. I guess you miss Cal and then you miss having to play JKs. But like this is not a real easy schedule for them.
- [57:41]
C
No Bay Area trip. Hello.
- [57:44]
A
Yeah, that's helpful.
- [57:45]
C
Nightmarish. Last year, you know, that was the one that really sent us into the tailspin of how did we go from top 10 in the country to are we going to fire our coach in the off week so we don't have to revisit those? That's nice.
- [57:58]
A
That is nice.
- [57:59]
B
Gosh. That. You know, we would talk about SMU before for smu, you know, big game. That game feels massive for Florida State because I mean the fan base is already not thrilled. And if you assume you lose to Alabama, like if you start off one and three, that's just. And then a coach who's already had trouble turning things around, you know, dealing with adversity, going through rough patches, it hasn't been great.
- [58:31]
D
Forget the win total. What's the over under on how many games before Norvell is fired? I'm setting it at seven and a half. You going under or over
- [58:43]
A
the number of games into the season before he's fired?
- [58:46]
C
It is the most brutal bye week for it to be after Miami.
- [58:50]
D
Before or after Miami is basically a bye week.
- [58:54]
C
That's after the Miami game when they've had to go at Louisville and at Miami in back to back games where it's very possible they might only have three to four wins on the season.
- [59:09]
A
So if they're sitting there. Yeah, they're sitting there at 3 and 4.
- [59:14]
D
Is. Is Odell Hagens coaching the Clemson game? That's what I mean.
- [59:18]
A
Exactly. Yeah.
- [59:21]
C
They'll been an interim coach for three different coaches.
- [59:24]
B
Yeah. Yes.
- [59:25]
C
Yeah. Yeah.
- [59:28]
A
You know, looking at the I, it's a lot easier to say, hey, we believe in him, we're going to bring him back. Like I don't. But you still have to deal with the consequences of the decision. So I don't know how well the administration is going to deal with people not showing up. Right. Not caring like, like there's a Difference between anger and apathy. And I think. I think the latter is a lot more what this fan base is moving to right now.
- [59:55]
D
Right.
- [59:57]
B
That's the sense I get, too.
- [60:00]
C
The crowd shots of empty stands. Yeah.
- [60:03]
B
Yeah. Like the hopelessness. We'll just get them next year.
- [60:07]
C
Yeah.
- [60:08]
B
Which sucks. I hate that. I've been trying to tell the fans, hey, let's back the team. Let's try to surprise me. Upside. But it's a hard sell again. It's another huge reason why you got to beat SMU. Hopefully start 3 and 1. You know, get a win at home against Virginia. Like, you got. You got to get some positive mojo early or else we probably will be talking about what week it happens.
- [60:32]
C
Yeah. Undeniable pressure on Mike Norvell. He is going to be the face of the hot seat. We talk about it all the time. Every single fall, every national outlet is going to have a hot seat article going into the season. Mike Norvell's face is going to be on the splash image of all the hot seat conversations. Smu second game of the year. An opportunity to swing that one way or the other. Massive. Right out of the gate. Do you think there is pressure on Bill o' Brien at Boston College?
- [61:10]
B
Yeah.
- [61:11]
A
Yeah. Okay, good.
- [61:14]
C
I don't know if there is.
- [61:16]
B
Really.
- [61:17]
C
I think three and a half. I think. I think there's a world where they could be 4 and 8 or 5 and 6, 7 and every just train keeps moving. Now, if they're 2 and 10 and the team checks out to your point about what it looks like, but I don't think you're dealing with the same calculations in terms of fan apathy. I think that's more about has he lost the team? Sun's still shining. Boston College playing football. You know, like if. If. If they're out there, you know, playing, then I think that there's a world where they miss a the postseason. And he's still the head coach for 27. I don't know how much pressure he's under.
- [61:57]
A
I do think there's pressure not for it not to be like a disaster.
- [62:00]
C
Correct. Three and a half says we could have a disaster, Right?
- [62:04]
A
Yeah, that's. That is not a great number to be looking at. And now my schedule's not loading.
- [62:12]
D
They did just hire a basketball coach, so. Yeah, impacted. Like, whoa, whoa. We don't want to do this twice.
- [62:21]
C
How does that impact it?
- [62:22]
D
Yeah. Like spending wise. Like, because they are apparently going to be. You know, I just speaking off the dome here, if, if they're Getting. If they're convincing Luke Murray to leave Yukon when he's had interest from other schools. Unless Luke just really loves the New England area, they seriously, they need to be promising something as far as funds being put into that basketball program. So if they're going to be diverting more money to the basketball team, are they going to want to pay whatever the buyout is for o' Brien and then go get another coaching staff in the same fiscal seat year?
- [62:58]
C
I don't know.
- [62:59]
D
It's these really exciting discussions that we
- [63:02]
C
have in Chester Hill. Yeah, it's. It's possible. But you know, if they think that Bill. If they think Bill o' Brien is running a program without like major flaws or harassment lawsuits or, you know, like, if it's. If they're getting out there, putting on their jersey, going out and fighting hard, not just on total quit, then yeah, I don't. I'm not sure. Three and a half says that we are at least verging on like we are close enough to disaster that they might have their hand forced by the results.
- [63:33]
D
Also, Matt Ryan's got an NFL team to run. So how much attention is he paying? A lot of things you got to
- [63:40]
C
think about, let's see. Luke. Did Luke Murray take a discount to be able to funnel money into the rev share? I don't know. I don't know what Luke Murray's. I don't know what his contract is right now. We'll have to. Have to do some digging on that one. Bill Belichick's win total last season was seven and a half. Fell way short of that with the four and eight season. This year's team has a win total of four and a half. What does that tell you about the North Carolina Tar Heels crypto?
- [64:16]
D
Bill? Buy the dip, baby.
- [64:23]
A
Seriously, I. Chip, what do you think? I know.
- [64:27]
D
Yeah.
- [64:27]
A
Yeah. I'm very curious.
- [64:29]
C
Like, okay. I think that this year's team with an upgraded quarterback and an upgraded offensive coordinator being able to retain a few of the individual pieces and like, admittedly they're gonna be super young. 40 person class of. So how about this? Ready?
- [64:48]
A
All right.
- [64:49]
C
On the North Carolina 2026 football roster, there are 48 red shirt or true freshmen. There are 12 seniors or older. That is seniors, redshirt seniors and graduate students. So there are four times as many players with zero or one year of experience as there are of four or more years of experience. Super, super young team. Lot of ways that that could end up impacting them negatively. But with the upgrade, I think that the 2026 Tar Heels will be about a touchdown better than the 2025 Tar Heels. I think that if the 2026 Tar Heels played last year's schedule, they would be a bowl team. They'd be six and six. They'd be seven and five. But here's the problem. They ain't playing the 2025 North Carolina schedule. They're playing the 2026 North Carolina schedule. And so for four and a half, I think it's a fair number because you are seeing about that much of an upgrade to where the team could be better. And then you could still be sitting on 4 and 8, 5 and 7 style results. But I do think that from upgraded quarterback, upgraded offensive coordinator, and just a year of being able to go through it, I think that they are going to be a more competent product on the field. I do not think this is my. Is damn near a guarantee they will not have the 123rd offense in the country.
- [66:22]
A
Yeah, I completely agree with that. I mean, I. If you look at them, they should be a lot more competent. And I agree with you. The schedule is. Is not as. As cake as last year's was.
- [66:33]
C
I don't think Bill Belichick is under pressure to go 7 and 5 or 8 and 4,
- [66:39]
A
but he's got to go bowling, right?
- [66:43]
C
I think he is. I mean, no one's gonna fire him. I don't know.
- [66:50]
B
You gotta. You gotta look. You gotta look more competitive against some of the better teams like TCU to start off. Like, better be close. You don't want to get housed again and embarrassed. But I think how it looks matters, you know, more competent, closer games. Gosh, who would have thought we'd be sitting here in year two talking about Bill Belichick just making a bowl? Yeah, it's like a success.
- [67:14]
C
Yeah, I do think six. We. We played that game. I can't remember if it was the SEC or the Big Ten. I think it was the Big Ten show. We said elevator up or elevator down. I said a game and a half either way. If we were to play that with North Carolina and you said, what's more likely, 6 and 6 or 3 and 9? I think 6 and 6 is more likely than 3 and 9 better be.
- [67:35]
B
But I would agree with you.
- [67:38]
C
The. I. I would not confidently say six and six, but I think that there is. There's enough that's been learned here. Tom, why is your headcocked?
- [67:50]
D
I don't know. It's just how I look.
- [67:53]
C
What do you think about the Tar Heels?
- [67:56]
D
I'm buying the dip schedule's impossible. But total seems low.
- [68:01]
C
Four and a half.
- [68:03]
D
I think they can get to five.
- [68:05]
C
Yeah.
- [68:05]
D
They get to six.
- [68:07]
C
That maybe. Maybe that's.
- [68:10]
D
Maybe that's.
- [68:12]
C
Maybe that's about where we start selling, you know. Oh, yeah. But, yeah, that's another thing is if you want to talk about big picture, you. You mentioned the Luke Murray piece of this, and I, I do not think there's an appetite within the athletic department to pass around the hat once again after everything that's happened in the last two years or so. So. Yeah, I don't know about the pressure level, but obviously a big headline here. Anything else before we get out of here, stand out about the win totals? You can circle a team, a coach, anything. Floors open.
- [68:50]
A
I, I think Tech is interesting. Georgia Tech, I mean, six and a half. I, I feel like that's a fan base that feels like they're. They're a win or two better than that, you know, based on. On what, what Brent Key has done there. That'll be interesting to watch. Who else we got here?
- [69:07]
C
I think. Well, go ahead.
- [69:09]
D
Duke won the damn league. They're at five and a half.
- [69:12]
B
Oh, my God.
- [69:13]
C
I, I wrote down all those. So I mentioned Virginia, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Duke. Like Duke and Virginia played in the ACC championship game. Virginia's at seven and a half. Duke's at five and a half. Georgia Tech was very much in the mix. They fit. They're at six and a half. And then the Clemson Tigers, who we have spent extensive time discussing here over the last several weeks, they're down there at seven and a half. A lot of the teams that were. That we've talked about a lot in this conference, just not expected to have great seasons. If Vegas is right.
- [69:46]
B
What if. I mean, what if Darian Mintz is still a Duke? That wind total is probably seven and a half, right?
- [69:52]
C
Yes.
- [69:52]
D
Yeah.
- [69:53]
B
Yeah.
- [69:54]
C
And Cooper Barkate, you know, like. And sort of like. Yeah, yeah, yeah, man. That's.
- [70:03]
D
We did a whole show focusing on the ACC and didn't give Clemson a segment because. Feels like a symptom of something.
- [70:11]
C
What do you mean?
- [70:12]
D
Feels like they're dead.
- [70:15]
A
I don't think they're dead. They're just. I. I don't think they're what they were nationally relevant.
- [70:21]
D
They're dead.
- [70:23]
A
Yeah.
- [70:23]
C
I think it is more likely that Clemson goes 9 and 3 than 6 and 6.
- [70:33]
B
I would say that's. Yeah. The elevator. Well, but it's hard to say the elevator's up.
- [70:39]
C
Yeah, yeah, I know it's not even like a great, you know, because they're standard.
- [70:44]
A
Right.
- [70:46]
C
I mean, the. Wouldn't it be hilarious is to go beat Lane.
- [70:50]
D
Oh, that would be fantastic.
- [70:51]
C
Moneyline Sprinkle right now.
- [70:55]
A
I mean, to go six and six, you would be like at LSU, in Miami. Okay. And then you need to lose four more of UNC at home. Cal, host the Hokies in Tallahassee, at Syracuse, host Georgia Tech, at Duke, host South Carolina. That's four and four in those other eight games. And going 02 against Miami and LSU. Like, your gimmies in that situation are what Georgia Southern and Charleston. Charleston Southern.
- [71:29]
C
Bud, six and six is unacceptable. Six and six is hard conversations. Six and six is like, remember, like Tommy Bowden stepped away. We're like echoes of like, maybe, you know, I'm not just. It's not working anymore for the betterment of the program. Like. And I don't know if Dabo has the personality that Tommy Bowden does. For the record, I do not think it would go as cleanly as it did when Tommy Bowden stepped down. Dabo took over and they were able to kind of find some success right away. But 6 and 6 is unacceptable losses for Clemson football.
- [72:02]
D
Keep in mind two of those road games Friday nights without a buy. Short week road trips to Cal and to Syracuse. And we know Clemson never struggles at Syracuse.
- [72:15]
C
That's. That's true. That is true. If you've got any more. Any, any other schools or anything you want to point to. Sorry, I realized we've run a little bit long here. If we can continue any of these conversations. If you would like to get in on it. On Thursday, 11:00am Eastern Time, we will be taking your questions both from the live tailgate and also from the big old bag of mail. So be sure to get them in. And as I said at the beginning of the show, we'll do our Notre Dame win total if Vegas is right to get things started off. And you can follow him on Twitter at Tom Fernell. You can follow him at Bud Elliott. 3. You can follow him at Danny Cannell. Follow me at Chip Underscore Patterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much.
- [72:57]
D
Thank you.
- [72:58]
A
See you guys.
- [72:59]
B
See ya.
- [73:00]
C
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- [73:02]
A
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